ABSTRACT This exploratory study examines the experiences of intelligence analysts as they grapple with dilemmas that hinder their ability to deliver accurate and authoritative threat assessments. A qualitative, grounded theory method was used by interviewing 26 imagery-trained intelligence analysts from a major US intelligence agency. The study identifies 12 sources of dilemmas, four barriers to overcoming dilemmas, and four techniques to overcome the barriers. Dilemmas occurred across the cognitive and emotional spectrum, and at the individual and organisational levels. The study proposes a theory of intelligence analyst dilemmas: emotional dilemmas motivate analysts to identify barriers and use techniques to overcome barriers, whereas cognitive dilemmas are more difficult to overcome. The paper offers a twofold explanation for the successful resolution of emotional dilemmas: emotions have a more powerful and clear self-interest motivation for the analyst than cognitive dilemmas, and the analyst has more control over their responses to emotional dilemmas. Cognitive dilemmas are affected by conflicting organisational goals and pressures, and ambiguous information so that the analyst has difficulty both identifying such barriers and finding ways to overcome them. Once identified, cognitive barriers often require more complex solutions which the analyst may struggle to implement in an institutional setting.
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