Most Areas Of China Research Articles

Assessment of the Two Successive GPM-Based V3 and V4 GSMaP Precipitation Products at Multiple Temporal and Spatial Scales Over China

Since the beginning of the global precipitation measurement (GPM) era, the global satellite mapping of precipitation (GSMaP) products underwent a major upgrade on January 2017, when the newest Version 4 (V4) GSMaP products were formally released. In this study, for the first time ever, the error characteristics of the successive Version 3 (V3) and V4 GSMaP products were evaluated at multiple temporal and spatial scales by comparing them to the China daily Precipitation Analysis Products from March 2014 to February 2017. The GSMaP products include the V3 and V4 standard products (MVK_V3 and MVK_V4), the gauge-adjusted standard products (GAU_V3 and GAU_V4), and the V3 near-real-time product (NRT_V3). Both versions of the gauge-adjusted datasets exhibit improvements over their corresponding unadjusted counterparts. With regard to the three-year daily mean precipitation, both gauge-adjusted products have similar spatial precipitation patterns, and the GAU_V4 provides higher precipitation estimates than the GAU_V3 over China. The MVK_V4 generally outperforms the MVK_V3 over the high-altitude Qinghai-Tibetan plateau, the deserts, and the moist southern regions. Elsewhere, the MVK_V4 has a lower performance than the MVK_V3. Based on the seasonal statistics, the V4 GSMaP products are superior to the V3 GSMaP products over China in the winter and the MVK_V4 provides higher precipitation estimates than the MVK_V3 in most areas of China (except for the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau and the deserts) in spring, summer, and autumn. The daily statistics show that the MVK_V4 significantly corrects for the precipitation bias of the MVK_V3 in the western, arid, and high-altitude regions.

Design of ESP8266 in Environmental Monitoring System

Aiming at the current situation of traditional artificial stagnation mode (high cost, small monitoring amount and slow update of monitoring data) in the field of environmental monitoring in most areas of China, this paper designs an automatic environment monitoring system, which is based on STM32F103RCT6 Collect environmental parameters such as atmosphere, water and soil, and then transmits the data to the terminal collection server through UDP through the ESP8266 module. The terminal collection server transmits the data to the management monitoring center through the internet network, and finally realizes remote environment monitoring. After preliminary text, the system has low energy consumption, strong stability, accurate data transmission and low cost, and has certain practicability.

Spatial Patterns of Satellite-Retrieved PM2.5 and Long-Term Exposure Assessment of China from 1998 to 2016.

Previous studies have shown that particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5) is tightly associated with adverse effects on human health, i.e., morbidity and mortality. Based on long-term satellite-derived PM2.5 datasets, this study analyzed the spatial patterns and temporal trends of PM2.5 concentrations in China from 1998 to 2016 using standard deviational ellipse and statistical analyses. A long-term assessment of exposure and health impacts due to PM2.5 was undertaken by the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program-Community Edition (BenMAP-CE) model. The results show that concentrations of PM2.5 increased nonlinearly in most areas of China from 1998 to 2016. Higher concentrations were found in eastern China and western Tarim Basin, and most areas exceeded the World Health Organization’s (WHO) annual PM2.5 standards. The median center of average PM2.5 concentration of the country shifted to the southeast and then returned during the examined time period. The proportion of the population exposed to equal PM2.5 concentrations increased at first, then trended downward. The proportion of the population exposed to PM2.5 over WHO Interim Target-1 (35 µg/m3) increased 20.6%, which was the largest growth compared with other WHO standard levels. The extent of health risk in China increased and expanded from 1998 to 2016, especially in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Pearl River Delta, which are China’s top three urban areas. The implementation of the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan has gradually paid off. If the government can achieve long-term adherence to its plan, great economic and health benefits will be gotten through the BenMAP-CE model analysis.

The Research on National Heat Vulnerability Assessment of China

Background: At present, many countries and regions have conducted heat vulnerability assessment studies to effectively identify vulnerable areas and populations. In China, heat vulnerability assessments have been conducted in some areas, but there is a lack of coverage across many parts of the country. The impacts of heat vulnerability are still unknown for most areas in China. Objectives: We aim to establish a preliminary heat vulnerability index system in China. Based on the establishment of a nationwide county-scale heat vulnerability index, we assessed the spatial distribution of heat vulnerability in China. Methods: We used principal component analysis to reduce the dimension of heat vulnerability indicators. The heat vulnerability index of each county was calculated by a summation of the principal component scores of the corresponding districts and counties. In order to better intuitively understand the distribution of China's heat vulnerability index, we displayed the results of the index on a spatial map. Results: The average value of the heat vulnerability index is 13.84, with a median of 14, and a standard deviation of 1.77. The high vulnerability areas, defined with a heat vulnerability index value of16-22, include a total of 394 counties/districts. Low vulnerability areas, defined with a heat vulnerability index value of 5-13,include a total of 1061 counties/districts. The spatial pattern map of the heat vulnerability index indicates that there are many areas with low heat vulnerability in the southeastern coastal areas and central regions, and there are many areas with high heat vulnerability in the northeast and western regions. Conclusion: Geographic, urbanization, economic, and health factors are the primary influencing factors of China's heat vulnerability. Low-income groups, low-education groups, ethnic minorities, and the elderly are particularly vulnerable to the effects of heat in China.

Changes in persistent and non-persistent extreme precipitation in China from 1961 to 2016

In this study, based on daily gage precipitation data of 2480 stations from 1961 to 2016, the summer (June–August) extreme precipitation event was defined using the 95th percentile, and the changes in persistent (last for at least 2 d) and non-persistent (1 d) extreme precipitation in China were analyzed. The results indicate that under global warming, the contribution of extreme precipitation to total summer precipitation increased in most areas of China, but it decreased in the central part of Inner Mongolia and the Sichuan Basin. In North and Southwest China, both persistent and non-persistent extreme precipitation decreased; the decreasing trend of persistent extreme precipitation was more prominent; thus, extreme precipitation event occurred more as non-persistent event. Meanwhile, in the Yangtze River Basin and South China, both types of extreme precipitation increased particularly the persistent extreme precipitation; persistent extreme precipitation occurred more compared with non-persistent events.

Prediction and analysis of the potential risk of sudden oak death in China

Sudden oak death (SOD) is one of the most rapid and destructive forest pathogens, which has caused the death of many host plants in Europe and America. There are currently no cases in China where there are more host plants and a more suitable climate for this pathogen to survive. Therefore, it is vital to discern the potential suitable habitat, quantify the risk levels, and monitor the potential high-risk areas. In this study, we modelled the potential invasion range and risk level of this pathogen at present and in future scenarios in China, using the least correlated components of all the environmental factors based on the Genetic Algorithm for Ruleset Production niche model and GIS analysis. The results indicate that most areas in China are free from a potential SOD risk, and the majority of potential occurrence areas are concentrated in Southern China (Yunnan, Sichuan, Guizhou, Chongqing, Hunan, Fujian). The area of high and extremely high risk in 2050 (RCP26, RCP45, RCP60, and RCP85) is larger than that at present. The most susceptible area is Yunnan province with 80% of the area prone to SOD at extremely high risk in present and future scenarios. The results will be important for monitoring potential high-risk areas in the currently uninfected parts of China.

Amplifying effect of ENSO on heat waves in China

This paper investigates the impacts of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on various aspects of heat waves (HWs), including frequency, duration, and magnitude, over China during 1961–2014. Results show that El Nino (La Nina) significantly amplifies (weakens) the HW activities in most areas of China. Such influences are particularly strong in southern China. HW activities are enhanced (weakened) during the summers following mature El Nino (La Nina) episodes, with increased (reduced) occurrence of HW events and number of HW days, as well as prolonged (shortened) duration and elevated (decreased) amplitude of such events. These amplifying effects are substantially stronger for severe HWs (i.e., hottest and longest episodes) than for those events of average duration and intensity. Diagnosis by compositing reanalysis data over ENSO events indicates that the atmospheric circulation during the summers following El Nino is characterized by anomalous rising motion over the tropical central Pacific and Indian Oceans, and sinking motion over the western North Pacific (WNP). The anomalous subsidence over the WNP is accompanied by reduced precipitation and condensational heating, as well as anomalous anticyclonic flows in the lower troposphere. El Nino also induces a stronger South Asian high, which can strengthen the WNP anticyclone and subtropical high. These changes provide a favorable environment for the occurrence and sustenance of HWs in China. Analogous arguments apply to changes with the opposite polarity in association with La Nina events.

Review of Heavy Metals Pollution in China in Agricultural and Urban Soils.

Background.The concentrations of heavy metals in soil and potential risks to the environment and public health are receiving increased attention in China.Objectives.The objective of this paper is to review and analyze heavy metals soil contamination in urban and agricultural areas and on a national scale in China.Methods.Initially, data on soil heavy metals concentration levels were gathered from previous studies and narratively analyzed. A further statistical analysis was performed using the geo-accumulation index (Igeo), Nemerow integrated pollution index (NIPI), mean, standard deviation (SD), skewness and kurtosis. Pollution levels were calculated and tabulated to illustrate overall spatial variations. In addition, pollution sources, remedial measures and impact of soil contamination as well as limitations are addressed.Results.The concentration level of heavy metals was above the natural background level in most areas of China. The problem was more prevalent in urban soils than agricultural soils. At the national level, the soil in most of the southern provinces and Beijing were heavily polluted. Even though the pollution condition based on Igeo was promising, the Nemerow integrated pollution level was the most worrisome. The soils in about 53% of the provinces were moderately to heavily polluted (NIPI>2). The effects were noticed in terms of both public and ecological health risks. The major sources were waste gas, wastewater, and hazardous residuals from factories and agricultural inputs such as pesticides. Efforts have been made to reduce the concentrations and health risks of heavy metals, including policy interventions, controlling contamination sources, reducing the phytoavailability of heavy metals, selecting and rearing of grain cultivars with low risk of contamination, paddy water and fertilizer management, land use changes, phytoremediation and engineering techniques.Conclusions. China is experiencing rapid economic and technological advancements. This increases the risk of heavy metals contamination of soil. If serious attention is not paid to this problem, soil toxicity and biological accumulation will continue to threaten the sustainability of China's development.Competing Interests.The authors declare no competing financial interests

Spatial-temporal consistency between gross primary productivity and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence of vegetation in China during 2007–2014

Accurately estimating spatial-temporal patterns of gross primary production (GPP) is important for the global carbon cycle. Satellite-based light use efficiency (LUE) models are regarded as an efficient tool in simulating spatial-temporal dynamics of GPP. However, the accuracy assessment of GPP simulations from LUE models at both spatial and temporal scales remains a challenge. In this study, we simulated GPP of vegetation in China during 2007–2014 using a LUE model (Vegetation Photosynthesis Model, VPM) based on MODIS (moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer) images with 8-day temporal and 500-m spatial resolutions and NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction) climate data. Global Ozone Monitoring Instrument 2 (GOME-2) solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) data were used to compare with VPM simulated GPP (GPPVPM) temporally and spatially using linear correlation analysis. Significant positive linear correlations exist between monthly GPPVPM and SIF data over a single year (2010) and multiple years (2007–2014) in most areas of China. GPPVPM is also significantly positive correlated with GOME-2 SIF (R2 > 0.43) spatially for seasonal scales. However, poor consistency was detected between GPPVPM and SIF data at yearly scale. GPP dynamic trends have high spatial-temporal variation in China during 2007–2014. Temperature, leaf area index (LAI), and precipitation are the most important factors influence GPPVPM in the regions of East Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Loss Plateau, and Southwestern China, respectively. The results of this study indicate that GPPVPM is temporally and spatially in line with GOME-2 SIF data, and space-borne SIF data have great potential for evaluating LUE-based GPP models.

Interannual Variations and Trends in Remotely Sensed and Modeled Soil Moisture in China

Abstract In this study, a microwave-based multisatellite merged product released from the European Space Agency’s Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) and two model-based simulations from the Community Land Model 4.5 (CLM4.5) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) were used to investigate interannual variations and trends of soil moisture in China between 1979 and 2010. They were also evaluated using in situ observations from the nationwide agrometeorological network. These three datasets show consistent drying trends for surface soil moisture in northeastern and central China, as well the eastern portion of Inner Mongolia, and wetting trends in the Tibetan Plateau, which are also identified by in situ observations. Trends in the root-zone soil moisture are in line with those of surface soil moisture seen in the CLM4.5 and GLDAS simulations obtained from most areas in China (78%–88%), except for northwestern China and southwest of the Tibetan Plateau. Moreover, the drying trend intensifies with increasing soil depth. Taking the in situ measurements as reference, it is found that ESA CCI has better accuracy in identifying the significant drying trends while CLM4.5 and GLDAS capture wetting trends better. Compared to temperature, precipitation is the primary factor responsible for these trends, which controls the direction of soil moisture changes, while increasing temperatures can also enhance soil drying during periods of decreased precipitation.

Change in Intensity and Frequency of Extreme Precipitation and its Possible Teleconnection With Large‐Scale Climate Index Over the China From 1960 to 2015

AbstractUnderstanding the change in intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation plays an important role in flood risk mitigation and water resource management in China. In this study, we analyzed the abrupt changes and long‐term trends in extreme precipitation intensity and frequency over China from 1960 to 2015 based on daily precipitation from stations. The possible teleconnection with large‐scale climate index was also been investigated. The major results are as follows: (1) 14.72% and 23.51% of all the stations over China have a change point in intensity and frequency, respectively. Moreover, most of change points occurred after 1975. (2) Extreme precipitation intensity and frequency show similar significant change trends, with a decreasing trend along the strip extending the northeast to southwest direction and an increasing trend in the two sides of the strip; 56.44% and 66.23% of all the stations shows the increasing trends in intensity and frequency. (3) Large‐scale climate indices have more influences on frequency rather than intensity. Especially, Dipole Mode Index with 1 year ahead has significantly positive correlation with extreme precipitation frequency in most areas of China, except for South China.

Recent transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in China: the implication of molecular epidemiology for tuberculosis control.

Tuberculosis (TB) has remained an ongoing concern in China. The national scale-up of the Directly Observed Treatment, Short Course (DOTS) program has accelerated the fight against TB in China. Nevertheless, many challenges still remain, including the spread of drug-resistant strains, high disease burden in rural areas, and enormous rural-to-urban migrations. Whether incident active TB represents recent transmission or endogenous reactivation has helped to prioritize the strategies for TB control. Evidence from molecular epidemiology studies has delineated the recent transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tuberculosis) strains in many settings. However, the transmission patterns of TB in most areas of China are still not clear. Studies carried out to date could not capture the real burden of recent transmission of the disease in China because of the retrospective study design, incomplete sampling, and use of low-resolution genotyping methods. We reviewed the implementations of molecular epidemiology of TB in China, the estimated disease burden due to recent transmission of M. tuberculosis strains, the primary transmission of drug-resistant TB, and the evaluation of a feasible genotyping method of M. tuberculosis strains in circulation.

Spatio-temporal variation of the wet-dry conditions from 1961 to 2015 in China

As an important part of the regional environment, the wet-dry climate condition is determined by precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (expressed as ET o). Based on weather station data, this study first calculated ET o by using the FAO56 Penman-Monteith model. Then, the dryness index K (ratio of ET o to precipitation) was used to study the spatio-temporal variation of the wet-dry condition in China from 1961 to 2015; moreover, dominant climatic factors of the wet-dry condition change were discussed. The annual precipitation and ET o of the Qinling-Huaihe line were close to a balance ( K ≈1.0). The annual precipitation in most areas exceeded the ET o in the south of this line and the east of Hengduan Mountains ( K ET o ( K ≥4.0). The overall annual K of China fluctuated around the 55-year mean and its linear trend was not significant. However, a relatively wet period of about 10 yr (1987–1996) was recorded. The overall annual K of China showed strong cyclicality on the time scale of 3, 7–8, 11 and 26–28 yr , and regional differences of the annual K trends and cyclicality were large. The degrees of wetness in the Northwest China and western Qinghai-Tibet Plateau were substantially increased, whereas the degrees of dryness in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, Sichuan Basin, and Loess Plateau were markedly increased. The linear trend of the annual K in most regions of China was not significant, and the annual K of most areas in China showed strong cyclicality on the 8–14 yr time scale. Precipitation was the dominant factor of wet-dry condition change in most areas, especially in North China, where the annual K change was highly correlated with precipitation.

Update: Increase in Human Infections with Novel Asian Lineage Avian Influenza A(H7N9) Viruses During the Fifth Epidemic - China, October 1, 2016-August 7, 2017.

Among all influenza viruses assessed using CDC's Influenza Risk Assessment Tool (IRAT), the Asian lineage avian influenza A(H7N9) virus (Asian H7N9), first reported in China in March 2013,* is ranked as the influenza virus with the highest potential pandemic risk (1). During October 1, 2016-August 7, 2017, the National Health and Family Planning Commission of China; CDC, Taiwan; the Hong Kong Centre for Health Protection; and the Macao CDC reported 759 human infections with Asian H7N9 viruses, including 281 deaths, to the World Health Organization (WHO), making this the largest of the five epidemics of Asian H7N9 infections that have occurred since 2013 (Figure 1). This report summarizes new viral and epidemiologic features identified during the fifth epidemic of Asian H7N9 in China and summarizes ongoing measures to enhance pandemic preparedness. Infections in humans and poultry were reported from most areas of China, including provinces bordering other countries, indicating extensive, ongoing geographic spread. The risk to the general public is very low and most human infections were, and continue to be, associated with poultry exposure, especially at live bird markets in mainland China. Throughout the first four epidemics of Asian H7N9 infections, only low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses were detected among human, poultry, and environmental specimens and samples. During the fifth epidemic, mutations were detected among some Asian H7N9 viruses, identifying the emergence of high pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses as well as viruses with reduced susceptibility to influenza antiviral medications recommended for treatment. Furthermore, the fifth-epidemic viruses diverged genetically into two separate lineages (Pearl River Delta lineage and Yangtze River Delta lineage), with Yangtze River Delta lineage viruses emerging as antigenically different compared with those from earlier epidemics. Because of its pandemic potential, candidate vaccine viruses (CVV) were produced in 2013 that have been used to make vaccines against Asian H7N9 viruses circulating at that time. CDC is working with partners to enhance surveillance for Asian H7N9 viruses in humans and poultry, to improve laboratory capability to detect and characterize H7N9 viruses, and to develop, test and distribute new CVV that could be used for vaccine production if a vaccine is needed.

Long‐term spatial and temporal variations of vegetative drought based on vegetation condition index in China

AbstractInformation concerning the spatial and temporal characteristics of vegetative drought is essential for decision‐making and for many environmental and agricultural applications. This study presents a comprehensive spatio‐temporal analysis of vegetative drought conditions that used the vegetation condition index (VCI) data product obtained from NOAA/AVHRR (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) to reveal the vegetative drought patterns across China from 1981 to 2015. Considering the characteristics of VCI as drought indicators, multiple methods were designed for these analyses, including drought frequency analysis, trend analysis, anomaly index analysis, and Mann‐Kendall testing. The results show that China is a country with high vegetative drought frequency, but that most areas experienced only slight or moderate periods of drought. In addition, drought has obvious seasonal and geographical differences and occurs with greater frequencies in regions that are highly affected by monsoons such as the northern and southern regions—particularly in the spring and autumn. In contrast, vegetative drought frequencies in regions less affected by monsoons such as the Tibetan Plateau and the northwestern regions were much lower except in northern Sinkiang, eastern Inner Mongolia, and southern Tibet. During 1981–2015, the VCI had an increasing trend in most areas of China (except in the southern region, where it decreased), indicating a reduced frequency of vegetative drought throughout the country. Moreover, the trend was wavelike rather than a one‐way change and could be divided into four phases: (1) a slowly increasing phase from 1981 to 1990, (2) an intensively fluctuating phase from 1991 to 2000, (3) a steadily increasing phase from 2001 to 2010, and (4) a slowly decreasing phase after 2010. Mann‐Kendall analysis further suggested that upward trends of the VCI were more evident in spring and autumn than in summer and that both trends mutated in 1997. Specifically, the trend reached the 0.05 level of significance in the spring.

The largest CAP-certified Chinese reference laboratory experience with the Bethesda system for reporting thyroid cytopathology: correlation with histologic and BRAF data

Thyroid fine needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB) has not been widely used in most areas of China. We investigated a large cohort of thyroid FNAB using the Bethesda system for reporting thyroid cytopathology (TBSRTC) from the largest College of American Pathology (CAP)-certified reference laboratory in China. Patients with thyroid FNAB between 2014 and 2016 from Guangzhou Kingmed Diagnostics were retrospectively retrieved and the histologic follow-up results and BRAF results were collected and analyzed. A total of 7355 thyroid FNAB cases were identified. The average age of these patients was 48.03 years (range: 5-90 years). A total of 875 cases (11.9%) were reported as nondiagnostic, 4041 (54.9%) cases were benign, 736 cases (10.0%) were atypia of undetermined significance/follicular lesion of undetermined significance (AUS/FLUS), 53 cases (0.7%) were suspicious for follicular neoplasm, 615 cases (8.4%) were suspicious for malignancy, and 1035 cases (14.1%) were positive for malignancy. Histologic follow-up was available on 552 patients. Among 13 cases of AUS/FLUS, 8 (61.5%) had malignancy on histology; 195 (92.0%) of the suspicious for malignancy cases had malignancies on histology, and 320 (98.5%) of the positive for malignancy cases had malignancies on histology. BRAF analysis was performed on 578 cases. Sixty cases with BRAF data had histologic follow-up, all 4 benign cases had negative BRAF, one follicular adenoma had negative BRAF, and 37 of the 55 PTC cases (67.3%) had positive BRAF. BRAF mutation has a 100% positive predictive value of malignancy for the indeterminate thyroid FNABs. This is the largest cohort of thyroid FNA reported using TBSRTC in China and the data are helpful for better understanding the status of thyroid FNA in China.

Experimental study of water blocking damage on coal

Water blocking damage, caused by the invasion of external fluids into the coal seams during hydraulic fracturing, is one of the reasons causing coalbed methane wells uneconomic in most areas of China. This paper presents an experimental study of water blocking damage on coal based on the measurements of surface tension, contact angle, gas-phase permeabilities and adsorption and desorption of nitrogen on synthetic coal samples. Distilled water, KCl, AN, and KCl+AN solutions were used as testing liquids in this study. Results show that the hydraulic fracturing fluid with surfactant AN causes the lowest damage to the reservoir permeability; the surfactant AN reduces the surface tension of the liquid and increases the wettability of liquid to coal reservoir; and the surfactant AN inhibits the occurrence of capillary and Jamin effects efficiently. It is concluded that the surfactant AN can reduce the water blocking damage rates of coal reservoirs; and the hydraulic fracturing fluid mixed with 1.5% KCl and 0.05% AN reduces the effect of water blocking damage on the coal permeability.

Historical and future trends in wetting and drying in 291 catchments across China

Abstract. An increasingly uneven distribution of hydrometeorological factors related to climate change has been detected by global climate models (GCMs) in which the pattern of changes in water availability is commonly described by the phrase dry gets drier, wet gets wetter (DDWW). However, the DDWW pattern is dominated by oceanic areas; recent studies based on both observed and modelled data have failed to verify the DDWW pattern on land. This study confirms the existence of a new DDWW pattern in China after analysing the observed streamflow data from 291 Chinese catchments from 1956 to 2000, which reveal that the distribution of water resources has become increasingly uneven since the 1950s. This pattern can be more accurately described as drier regions are more likely to become drier, whereas wetter regions are more likely to become wetter. Based on a framework derived from the Budyko hypothesis, this study estimates runoff trends via observations of precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (Ep) and predicts the future trends from 2001 to 2050 according to the projections of five GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under three scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. The results show that this framework has a good performance for estimating runoff trends; such changes in P play the most significant role. Most areas of China, including more than 60 % of catchments, will experience water resource shortages under the projected climate changes. Despite the differences among the predicted results of the different models, the DDWW pattern does not hold in the projections regardless of the model used. Nevertheless, this conclusion remains tentative owing to the large uncertainties in the GCM outputs.

Spatial and temporal patterns of nasopharyngeal carcinoma mortality in China, 1973–2005

We fitted generalized linear models using data from three national retrospective surveys on cause of death in China to explore the spatial and temporal patterns of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) mortality over the period 1973 to 2005. The results suggest that there was a significant decrease in NPC mortality in China over time (p < 0.0001), the mortality rate ratio (RR) for the two later time periods were 0.59 (95% CI: 0.55–0.64) for 1990–1992 and 0.42 (95% CI: 0.39–0.45) for 2004–2005 compared to that of 1973–1975. Residents living in the South China areas have an elevated risk of mortality from NPC compared to those living in North China across all three time periods, with the RR being 4.96 (95% CI: 4.31–5.70) in 1973–1975, 12.83 (95% CI: 10.73–15.34) in 1990–1992 and 15.20 (95% CI: 12.34–18.72) in 2004–2005. Although NPC mortality in most areas of China has reduced to very low levels, the widening geographical disparities in NPC mortality are still noteworthy. It may be necessary to target public health policies to address the widening geographical disparities in NPC mortality.

Modeling Evapotranspiration over China’s Landmass from 1979 to 2012 Using Multiple Land Surface Models: Evaluations and Analyses

Abstract Land surface models (LSMs) are useful tools to estimate land evapotranspiration at a grid scale and for long-term applications. Here, the Community Land Model, version 4.0 (CLM4.0); Dynamic Land Model (DLM); and Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) were driven with observation-based forcing datasets, and a multiple-LSM ensemble-averaged evapotranspiration (ET) product (LSMs-ET) was developed and its spatial–temporal variations were analyzed for the China landmass over the period 1979–2012. Evaluations against measurements from nine flux towers at site scale and surface water budget–based ET at regional scale showed that the LSMs-ET had good performance in most areas of China’s landmass. The intercomparisons between the ET estimates and the independent ET products from remote sensing and upscaling methods suggested that there were fairly consistent patterns between each dataset. The LSMs-ET produced a mean annual ET of 351.24 ± 10.7 mm yr−1 over 1979–2012, and its spatial–temporal variation analyses showed that (i) there was an overall significant ET increasing trend, with a value of 0.72 mm yr−1 (p &amp;lt; 0.01), and (ii) 36.01% of Chinese land had significant increasing trends, ranging from 1 to 9 mm yr−1, while only 6.41% of the area showed significant decreasing trends, ranging from −6.28 to −0.08 mm yr−1. Analyses of ET variations in each climate region clearly showed that the Tibetan Plateau areas were the main contributors to the overall increasing ET trends of China.