Mortgage Debt Research Articles

#Indebted: Disciplining the Moral Valence of Mortgage Debt Online

The 2008 mortgage crash and the online publics that have emerged in its aftermath have reshaped American interpretations of indebtedness. Combining research among homeowners facing foreclosure in California’s Sacramento Valley with an analysis of the national online forums they frequent, I show how participants rethink the moral scaffolding of debt relations within what I describe as online publics of indebtedness. Anonymous online publics foster experiences of disembodied autonomy that encourage debt refusal and discipline the middle-class ethics of debt abandonment, as participants distinguish between mortgagors who deserve not to pay their debts and those they deem irresponsible for defaulting on their loans. In contrast, participation in semipublic social networks and online forms of publicity emphasizes new affective orientations toward debt obligations. My analysis contributes to an anthropological scholarship on moral economies by exploring the role of distinct forms of new media in shaping everyday experiences of indebtedness in late-capitalist financial markets.

Household Debt and Spending in the United Kingdom

Household debt rose sharply in the United Kingdom in the decade before the financial crisis. This paper uses household level microdata to investigate the relationship between mortgage debt and consumption. We find evidence that more highly indebted groups of households made larger cuts in spending following the financial crisis: spending cuts associated with debt may have reduced the level of aggregate private consumption by up to 2% after 2007. Survey data suggest that large cuts in spending by indebted households after 2007 may reflect a combination of tighter credit conditions and increased concerns about ability to make future debt repayments. The potential for household indebtedness to lead to large adverse impacts on aggregate demand was an important reason why the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee took policy action at its June 2014 meeting.

The impact of housing market disturbances on the US financial system: a pre-crisis analysis

ABSTRACTA common critique of the Federal Reserve over the past crisis is that it should have better anticipated the impact of the run-up in home mortgage debt and the subsequent housing market crash on the financial system. As a result, the Federal Reserve should have moved much more quickly to shore up financial markets. Our article tests the hypothesis that the impact of the housing market crash on the financial system could have been anticipated. Using a VAR model along with impulse response functions and variance decompositions, we examine the link between housing market mortgage debt shocks and the financial intermediaries’ credit market behaviour. We find important connections between key macroeconomic variables and the credit behaviour of these financial institutions. However, using the pre-crisis data, we find that housing market debt shocks fail to have an impact on the credit markets accessed by these firms. These results support the notion that the impact of this crisis on the financial system could not have been anticipated given the information available at the time.

Mortgage Debt and Social Externalities

I analyse the implications of social status concerns on debt holdings at individual and aggregate level, in a partial equilibrium life-cycle framework with heterogeneous agents. The focal point of the analysis is the explicit consideration of durable goods, in their triple role as a part of utility, a collateralizable portion of life-time wealth and a social positioning device. In an economy featuring social status concerns, the debt-to-income ratio is higher, a shift of resources towards the beginning of life arises and the effects of changes in financial conditions are more pronounced.

Consumer Spending and Property Taxes

A major change of the property tax system in 2011 generated significant variation in the amount of housing taxes paid by Italian households. Using new questions added to the Survey on Household Income and Wealth (SHIW), we exploit this variation to provide an unprecedented analysis of the effects of property taxes on consumer spending. A tax on the main dwelling leads to large expenditure cuts among households with mortgage debt and low liquid wealth but generates only small revenues for the government. In contrast, higher tax rates on other residential properties reduce private savings and yield large tax revenues.

Interest Rates, Debt and Intertemporal Allocation: Evidence from Notched Mortgage Contracts in the United Kingdom

Using a novel source of quasi-experimental variation in interest rates, we study the response of household debt and intertemporal consumption allocation to interest rates. We also develop a new approach to structurally estimate the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution (EIS). In the United Kingdom, the mortgage interest rate schedule features discrete jumps — notches — at thresholds for the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, creating strong incentives for bunching below those thresholds. We document large and sharp bunching below every notch, which translates into sizable interest elasticities of mortgage debt, between 0.1 and 1.4 across different LTV levels. We develop a dynamic model that links these reduced-form responses to the underlying structural EIS. The EIS is much smaller and less heterogeneous than the reduced-form elasticities, between 0.05-0.25 across LTV levels and household types. We show that our structural approach is robust to a wide range of assumptions on beliefs about the future, uncertainty, risk aversion, discount factors and present bias. Our findings have implications for the numerous calibration studies in economics that rely on larger values of the EIS.

Explaining the Boom-Bust Cycle in the U.S. Housing Market: A Reverse-Engineering Approach

We use a simple quantitative asset pricing model to "reverse-engineer" the sequences of stochastic shocks to housing demand and lending standards that are needed to exactly replicate the boom-bust patterns in U.S. household real estate value and mortgage debt over the period 1995 to 2012. Conditional on the observed paths for U.S. disposable income growth and the mortgage interest rate, we consider four different specifications of the model that vary according to the way that household expectations are formed (rational versus moving average forecast rules) and the maturity of the mortgage contract (one-period versus long-term). We find that the model with moving average forecast rules and long-term mortgage debt does best in plausibly matching the patterns observed in the data. Counterfactual simulations show that shifting lending standards (as measured by a loan-to-equity limit) were an important driver of the episode while movements in the mortgage interest rate were not. All models deliver rapid consumption growth during the boom, negative consumption growth during the Great Recession, and sluggish consumption growth during the recovery when households are deleveraging.

Mortgage Insurance as a Macroprudential Tool: Dealing with the Risk of a Housing Market Crash in Canada

Canada’s mortgage insurance risk needs a better backstop fund, according to a new report released today by the C.D. Howe Institute. In “Mortgage Insurance as a Macroprudential Tool: Dealing with the Risk of a Housing Market Crash in Canada,” authors Thorsten V. Koeppl and James MacGee suggest an era of steadily rising house prices and high mortgage debt warrants concern over the potential exposure of Canada’s mortgage insurance system – and taxpayers.

Deleveraging in a Highly Indebted Property Market: Who does it and are there Implications for Household Consumption?

A distinguishing feature of the period preceding the 2007/2008 financial crisis was the sizeable increase in private sector debt observed across many countries. A key component of household liabilities is mortgage debt and with many countries experiencing persistent increases in house prices from the mid‐1990s, a marked increase in this aspect of household leverage was observed. While aggregate statistics across countries confirm reductions in personal debt levels in recent years, relatively few sources of micro data are available to examine the nature of the deleveraging process at the household level. In this paper, using a unique dataset, we examine deleveraging amongst a representative sample of mortgaged Irish households. We identify the characteristics of households engaged in deleveraging and find that it is those households who can afford to deleverage who do. Furthermore we find some tentative evidence to suggest that the decision to deleverage has negative implications for household consumption.

Consumer Spending and Property Taxes

A major change of the property tax system in 2011 generated significant variation in the amount of housing taxes paid by Italian households. Using new questions added to the Survey on Household Income and Wealth (SHIW), we exploit this variation to provide an unprecedented analysis of the effects of property taxes on consumer spending. A tax on the main dwelling leads to large expenditure cuts among households with mortgage debt and low liquid wealth but generates only small revenues for the government. In contrast, higher tax rates on other residential properties reduce private savings and yield large tax revenues.

The Effects of Macroprudential and Fiscal Policy on Mortgage Debt: Evidence from the Netherlands

This paper studies the effects of LTV limits, PTI limits and the mortgage interest deduction on mortgage debt exploiting a series of policy changes in the Netherlands. As intended, regulatory loan limits reduce mortgage leverage ratios and they also induce bunching at the loan limits. Loan limits and restrictions of the mortgage interest deduction trigger large declines in mortgage volumes. The leverage- and volume responses are larger for young, borrowing-constrained households. The repeal of the mortgage interest deduction for non-amortizing mortgages decimates the market for non-amortizing mortgages. The PTI tightening is also associated with a substantial rise in the fraction of mortgages that have very short periods during which the interest rate is fixed. This unintended risk-shifting pattern to quasi- adjustable-rate mortgages (ARM) may increase income risk. The reform of the mortgage interest deduction, which boosts amortization, is also associated with a significant decline in principal amounts at origination. Overall, this paper highlights the distributional effects as well as the unintended potential consequences of macroprudential and fiscal policies aiming to reduce mortgage debt.

Household’s optimal mortgage and unsecured loan default decision

How do households make optimal borrowing and default decisions when they have the option to borrow in multiple ways? In this paper, I analyze households’ optimal mortgage and unsecured loan borrowing and default decisions in the context of the recent recession. I model households as able to default on mortgage debt to walk away from capital losses, at the price of foreclosure. However, a household can also default on unsecured debt to maintain its home, in exchange for a longer exclusion from credit markets following default. Depending on the costs of each alternative, financially constrained households exhibit heterogeneity in optimal default decisions.Next, I analyze how mortgage loan modification policies, after a sudden drop in house prices, affect household choices in the mortgage and unsecured loan markets. The quantitative exercise shows that the government-driven mortgage modification program, initiated in 2009, reduces the mortgage default rate by 0.27% points. However, this increases the unsecured loan charge-off rate by 0.66% points.

Borrowing Constraints and Credit Demand in a Developing Economy

SummaryThis paper investigates the determinants of credit demand in the presence of borrowing constraints in a developing economy. We model the determinants of observed debt for Chilean households while accounting for selection bias and the endogeneity of their income and specific household assets. Using a novel Chilean dataset, we estimate the relationship between household characteristics and consumer and mortgage debt. We find substantial differences in the nature of these relationships across the types of debt. For example, we find that the income elasticity for consumer debt is greater than 1 whereas for mortgage debt it is not. The results suggest the increased availability of credit, combined with the aging of the Chilean population, is likely to drastically change the distribution and level of Chilean debt. These findings are particularly relevant for other developing economies currently experiencing rapid income and debt growth. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Natural experiments and debt-driven financial crises: mortgage finance booms in the 1920s and 2000s

Purpose – The role of debt in episodes of financial stability is a topic of increasing important as the global economy struggles to recover from the worst crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The purpose of this paper is to examine the mortgage finance booms of the 1920s and 2000s as natural experiments, new insights into debt-driven financial crises are gained. Design/methodology/approach – The general methodology is interpreting anomalous historical events as natural experiments. The specific methodology is the approach to natural experiments provided by Joseph A. Schumpeter and Milton Friedman. The hypothesis tested is that laxity in lending standards was the prime contributor to the mortgage debt booms. In each case, we explain why factors other than laxity in lending standards would be secondary factors, with the pre-boom and post-boom lending standards providing the control groups of natural experiments. The two episodes of mortgage debt booms occurring under very different general economic and financial conditions provide an especially strong test of the hypothesized functional relationship. Findings – The results of the two natural experiments support the hypothesis that lax lending standards were the prime contributors to the two episodes of debt-driven financial crisis. Originality/value – From a social economics perspective, the insights gained are important because a major social goal has been to encourage greater opportunities for home ownership. The results of these natural experiments provide guidance for policymakers in the search for a viable balance between achieving that social goal and maintaining financial stability.

The deposit financing gap: another Dutch disease

In the last 2 decades, the Netherlands has experienced an increase in real-estate prices, accompanied by an increase in mortgages and a marked decline in household savings. As a consequence, banks are faced with a large retail funding gap: outstanding mortgage debt is insufficiently matched by retail deposits, whereas other funding possibilities of banks have increasingly been constrained – also due to their large foreign exposures. Traditional macroeconomic models cannot analyse this phenomenon appropriately as they lack a proper model of the financial sector and underestimate the potential for interactions between the monetary and the real sphere. We present a stock-flow consistent approach developed by Godley and Lavoie as a valuable alternative to traditional and New Keynesian macroeconomic models, enabling us to analyse the deposit financing gap for the Netherlands.

Feasibility study for banking loan using association rule mining classifier

The problem of bad loans in the koperasi can be reduced if the koperasi can detect whether member can complete the mortgage debt or decline. The method used for identify characteristic patterns of prospective lenders in this study, called Association Rule Mining Classifier. Pattern of credit member will be converted into knowledge and used to classify other creditors. Classification process would separate creditors into two groups: good credit and bad credit groups. Research using prototyping for implementing the design into an application using programming language and development tool. The process of association rule mining using Weighted Itemset Tidset (WIT)–tree methods. The results shown that the method can predict the prospective customer credit. Training data set using 120 customers who already know their credit history. Data test used 61 customers who apply for credit. The results concluded that 42 customers will be paying off their loans and 19 clients are decline

The Rescue of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

The imposition of federal conservatorships on September 6, 2008, at the Federal National Mortgage Association and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation—commonly known as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac—was one of the most dramatic events of the financial crisis. These two government-sponsored enterprises play a central role in the US housing finance system, and at the start of their conservatorships held or guaranteed about $5.2 trillion of home mortgage debt. The two firms were often cited as shining examples of public-private partnerships—that is, the harnessing of private capital to advance the social goal of expanding homeownership. But in reality, the hybrid structures of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were destined to fail at some point, owing to their singular exposure to residential real estate and moral hazard incentives emanating from the implicit guarantee of their liabilities. We describe the financial distress experienced by the two firms, the events that led the federal government to take dramatic action in an effort to stabilize housing and financial markets, and the various resolution options available to US policymakers at the time; and we evaluate the success of the choice of conservatorship in terms of its effects on financial markets and financial stability, on mortgage supply, and on the financial position of the two firms themselves. Conservatorship achieved its key short-run goals of stabilizing mortgage markets and promoting financial stability during a period of extreme stress. However, conservatorship was intended to be a temporary fix, not a long-term solution, and more than six years later, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac still remain in conservatorship.

The Way Forward: Moving from the Post-Bubble, Post-Bust Economy to Renewed Growth and Competitiveness

We argue that the U.S. economy is presently mired in a particularly tenacious, Fisher-style debt-deflation rooted in long term secular trends in the domestic and global economies. Global productive capacity has steadily outpaced global absorptive capacity for several decades now, and the latter will not catch up with the former for a good many years to come -- if ever. In order to avert long-term Japanese-style stagnation at home and quite possibly slowdown and slump worldwide, the U.S. will have both (a) to eliminate private sector debt-overhang from 'both sides' of the same, and (b) to act in concert with other nations to reverse and eliminate persistent trade imbalances once and for all. We accordingly describe and prescribe a detailed economic recovery program comprising three 'pillars.' The first is a robust public infrastructure investment plan to compensate for retrenchment-rooted lags in consumer demand. The second is a comprehensive mortgage debt restructuring plan including bridge loan assistance, principal reduction, and 'rent to own' components for mortgage debtors facing three distinct kinds of distress. The third includes medium and long term fiscal and currency policy reforms designed first to recycle trade surpluses into demand stimulus where presently needed, and ultimately to prevent any recurrence in future of imbalances such as have characterized global trade over the past several decades.

The ins and outs of mortgage debt during the housing boom and bust

From 1999 to 2013, U.S. mortgage debt doubled before contracting sharply. I estimate mortgage inflows and outflows that shed light on the sources of volatility. During the boom, inflows from real estate investors tripled, far outpacing other segments such as first-time homebuyers. During the bust, a collapse in inflows keyed the debt decline, while an expansion of outflows due to defaults played a more minor role. Inflow declines partly reflect a dramatic falloff in first-time homebuying, especially for low credit score individuals. Further analysis helps support the notion that the differential decline by credit score reflects markedly tightened credit supply.

Failure to Launch: Housing, Debt Overhang, and the Inflation Option During the Great Recession

Can inflation cure mortgage debt overhang and mitigate the severity of housing busts? Focusing on the Great Recession, I address this question through the lens of a quantitative macroeconomic model of illiquid housing, endogenous mortgage pricing, and equilibrium default. First, I show that an increase in financial frictions accounts for half of the drop in real house prices, household net worth, and consumption during the Great Recession. However, a shock to housing liquidity is key to explaining the drop in housing sales, the increase in average time on the market, and the persistence of high foreclosure sales. A temporary surge of inflation leads to a moderate improvement in real house prices and inflation, though the endogenous contraction of mortgage credit partially offsets the direct debt erosion. However, a policy of nominal price level targeting that institutes high initial inflation followed by an extended disinflation leads to more promising results.