Life Table Research Articles

The survivor dividend as a tool to improve pension adequacy in nonfinancial defined contribution schemes

The mechanisms of non-financial defined contribution pension schemes (NDCs) are close to those of a fully funded defined contribution plan but under a pay-as-you-go framework. Of particular interest is how the accumulated capital of a deceased person is used, when the death occurs prior to retirement. At the moment, Sweden is the only NDC country that distributes this capital, called survivor dividend (SD). Without a distribution of the SD, the scheme would accumulate a reserve with no clear purpose. This paper aims to analyse to what extent the SD kept by most NDCs can be used to improve pension adequacy giving low-income pensioners the financial support they need. We develop theoretical models to achieve the financial equilibrium of the scheme depending on how the SD is distributed among all socio-economic groups and the use of different mortality tables (unisex versus group-specific). Our results indicate that the survivor dividend can be used to set up a minimum pension that benefit 66.54 % of the pensioners increasing the average annual pension by 8.68%.

Educational Disparities in Preventable Deaths: Do They Explain the Longevity Gap Between Mexico and Spain?

Determine how preventable causes of death contribute to the life expectancy gap between Mexico and Spain. We used a linear integral decomposition to analyze the impact of preventable mortality on life expectancy between ages 30-75 (temporary life expectancy) between Mexico and Spain in 2018. Additionally, we computed cause-deleted life tables to estimate potential gains in temporary life expectancy. Analyses were stratified by educational attainment, sex, and age. Low-educated Mexicans showed the largest gains in temporary life expectancy from removing preventable deaths (3.4 years for males, 1.6 for females), partially explaining the gap with Spain. Removing these deaths would close the gap almost entirely due to a higher relative decrease for middle- and high-educated individuals. While access to adequate healthcare is crucial for improving population health, appropriate non-medical public policies can significantly reduce mortality disparities between Mexico and Spain, especially for individuals from higher educational backgrounds.

Dynamics of Natural Mortality Factors of Immature Diatraea saccharalis (Fabricius) (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) in Sugarcane Adjacent to Forest Fragments

ABSTRACTPest regulation may be favoured in crop fields adjacent to semi‐natural vegetation such as fragments of the Atlantic Forest in Southeastern Brazil. Therefore, the objective of this study was to analyse the dynamics of mortality factors for eggs and larvae of Diatraea saccharalis (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) in sugarcane adjacent to two types of forest fragments (Plateau and Gallery) at two distances from these fragments during two growing seasons. In each area (seven sugarcane plots), two 50 m long transects were established, parallel and spaced at 5 and 100 m from the field edge, and cohorts of the insect at each stage of development were monitored. The collected data were used to construct an ecological life table and determine the main mortality factors. Natural mortality factors that could not be characterised were grouped as unknown. In both seasons and stages of development observed, there was no difference in mortality between the two types of forest fragments (Plateau and Gallery) or between the two distances from the forest. For the egg stage, the mortality factors were classified as inviable due to infertility, predation, parasitism, desiccation and dislodgement. In both seasons, there was a significant difference in the natural mortality factors of D. saccharalis, with predation distinct from the others. Ants (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) and green lacewings (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) were the most frequent predatory agents and occurred at both distances and types of forest fragments. For the larval stage, the mortality factors were classified as predation, parasitism, drowning and unknown, with the unknown group differing from the others. Unknown factors might have included predation, larval movement towards other plants and displacement caused by wind after hatching. Overall, predation is a key mortality component of D. saccharalis suppression. Therefore, agricultural practices focused on the conservation of natural enemies such as predators may provide more sustainable management.

The joint distribution of years lived in good and poor health

BackgroundIncidence-based multistate models of population health are commonly applied to calculate state expectancies, such as a healthy life expectancy (HLE), or unhealthy life expectancy (UHE). These models also allow the computation of other summary indices, such as the distributions of healthy or unhealthy lifespans.ObjectiveWe aim to show how a multistate health model implies a multistate death distribution, giving joint information on years lived in good and poor health. We also propose three aggregate indices of joint health and mortality inequality.MethodsWe propose a double-accounting approach to increment-decrement life table methods to intuitively derive a multistate health distribution over age and cumulative duration spent in each state. We then define a variety of summary lifespan inequality indices based on different distance metrics, namely Euclidean, Chebyshev, and Manhattan distances.ResultsWe apply the method to multistate transition probabilities between health states based on the activities of daily living index for Italian women from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe in 2015-2017. We demonstrate the added value of accounting for joint years lived in health states in multistate models for our understanding of the period health and mortality conditions from the perspective of health-specific lifespans of individuals.ConclusionsMultivariate state distributions and summary indices derived from them give a holistic representation of population health inequality. We offer selected summary indices of the multivariate distribution with different demographic interpretations from the measures derived from univariate distributions. Although more theoretical and methodological work is required to motivate a single comprehensive population health inequality index, this direction is a promising path for a better understanding of population health dynamics and relationships between univariate statistics.

Influence of Temperature and Photoperiod on Survival and Development of Eoreuma loftini (Lepidoptera: Crambidae)

The Mexican rice borer, Eoreuma loftini (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) is an economically important pest of sugarcane, rice, and corn in Louisiana, Texas, and Mexico. This pest is considered invasive in the US and is expanding its range northward. Due to its subtropical origin, E. loftini’s northern distribution might be limited by cold tolerance. A series of assays determined the influence of temperature and photoperiod on E. loftini life table parameters. Adult oviposition was reduced at temperatures > 30 °C. Egg viability was reduced at 20 and 36 °C relative to intermediate temperatures. Egg development time was greatest at 18 °C. Larvae did not develop to the pupal stage at temperatures ≤ 20 °C. Larval duration decreased with increasing temperature from 22 to 36 °C. Adult longevity decreased with increasing temperature from 18 °C (15 d) to 34 °C (7 d). Exposure to a short-day photoperiod decreased larval mortality at −5 °C. Larval survival of >80% up to 5 days at −5 °C suggests E. loftini cold tolerance is sufficient to minimize the influence of hard freezes on overwintering populations. Larval survival for 5 d at 40 °C was 75%. Exposure to 45 °C for periods > 1 d caused 100% mortality. These results suggest that E. loftini exhibits considerable thermal plasticity and cold tolerance, which may facilitate its range expansion in the United States.

Study on survival analysis and influencing factors of pneumoconiosis patients in Guangzhou

Objective: To analyze the survival of pneumoconiosis patients in Guangzhou from 1958 to 2018, explore the factors affecting the survival of pneumoconiosis, and provide scientific basis for formulating the guidelines and policies for treatment and assistance of pneumoconiosis. Methods: From July 2019 to January 2020, 1194 cases of occupational pneumoconiosis patients diagnosed by institutions qualified for pneumoconiosis diagnosis in Guangzhou from June 1, 1958 to December 31, 2018 were studied. Excluding 258 patients who lacked survival data, 936 patients were included in the pneumoconiosis survival analysis. Life table method was used to estimate the survival rate, Kaplan-Meier method was used to draw the survival curve, log-rank test was used to compare the groups, and Cox proportional risk regression model was used to analyze the influencing factors of survival. Results: The 10, 20 and 30 years cumulative survival rates of pneumoconiosis patients in Guangzhou were 62.8%, 35.2% and 15.4%, respectively. The median survival time was 19.4 years. log-rank test showed that there were statistically significant differences in the survival curves of pneumoconiosis patients between group without tuberculosis and group with tuberculosis (P<0.001), and there were statistically significant differences among different stages and categories of pneumoconiosis (P<0.001). Age of exposure to dust (HR=1.03, 95%CI: 1.01-1.05), age of diagnosis (HR=1.02, 95%CI: 1.00-1.04), combined pulmonary tuberculosis (HR=1.46, 95%CI: 1.18-1.81), stage of pneumoconiosis (stage Ⅲ vs. stage Ⅰ, HR=2.26, 95%CI: 1.47-3.48) and categories of pneumoconiosis (fibrogenic mineral dust pneumoconiosis and metallogenic pneumoconiosis, HR=2.45, 95% CI: 1.61-3.74; non-fibrogenic mineral pneumoconiosis and metallogenic pneumoconiosis, HR=2.67, 95% CI: 1.47-4.87; mixed pneumoconiosis and metallogenic pneumoconiosis, HR=2.25, 95%CI: 1.11-4.56) were the factors affecting the survival time of pneumoconiosis patients (P<0.05) . Conclusion: Pulmonary tuberculosis may increase the risk of death in patients with pneumoconiosis. Mineral dust pneumoconiosis, mixed pneumoconiosis and stage Ⅲ pneumoconiosis may also have higher risk of death.

Comparative risk assessment modeling of cardiovascular and all-cause burden attributable to sitting time and physical inactivity: evidence from Argentina.

Although there is evidence that sitting time (ST) and insufficient physical activity (PA) are associated with premature mortality, the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality (ACM) attributable to the combined effects of ST and PA in counterfactual scenarios is limited. Potential impact fractions (PIFs) were used to calculate premature deaths (PDs) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Cause-eliminated life tables were utilized to estimate health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) gains. Monte Carlo simulations were performed for uncertainty analysis. The theoretical minimum risk exposure level (ST < 4 $\mathrm{h} \cdot{\mathrm{d}}^{-1}$, PA > 65 $\mathrm{min} \cdot{\mathrm{d}}^{-1}$) could prevent 16.7% of CVD deaths and 12.3% of all-cause deaths annually. This would save 669 to 2,630 DALYs per 100,000 and increase healthy life years by 0.57 to 2.94. Increasing PA to > 65 $\mathrm{min} \cdot{\mathrm{d}}^{-1}$ while maintaining ST could yield gains in HALE from 0.49 (CVD) to 2.60 (ACM) years. Reducing ST to < 4 $\mathrm{h}\cdot{\mathrm{d}}^{-1}$ while keeping PA constant could lead to gains in HALE from 0.07 (CVD) to 0.34 (ACM) years. A 50% reduction in suboptimal ST (≥ 4 $\mathrm{h}\cdot{\mathrm{d}}^{-1}$) doubled HALE gains, ranging from 0.11 to 0.63years. Public health decision-makers should prioritize vulnerable populations, including older adults and individuals with inadequate PA levels.

Age patterns of emigration from Egypt and return to it during 2000–2013

Egyptian emigration has been addressed as a singular incident, and it does not examine the possibility of returning to its home country or moving to another destination. Thus, more studies are needed to fill a gap in our knowledge of emigration from Egypt. Using a multistate life table approach, the study estimated the probability of emigration from Egypt according to destinations and the exact age of the emigrants, the probability of returning from the destination to the home country before reaching age 60, and the expected migration time in each destination; the study depended on data from the rich nationwide “The Egypt Household International Migration Survey.” Results confirm the pattern of migration from Egypt, which is acknowledged through previous studies, except that the driver of migration is no longer unemployment but rather in search of better conditions or a decent life. Also, the results indicate that Saudi Arabia attracted the largest percentage of working-age emigrants from Egypt, while Kuwait was the more stable destination. Libya is considered the least stable destination for Egyptian emigrants and the preferred country for young emigrants. Moreover, Saudi Arabia was the preferred destination for older Egyptians, followed by Kuwait. The probability of returning to Egypt increases significantly at 50-59 for all destination countries except Jordan. Finally, if an Egyptian emigrant wishes to move from their first destination, the next destination will be Saudi Arabia.

Trends in Sickle Cell Disease Mortality: 1979-2020.

Although sickle cell disease (SCD)-related childhood mortality in the United States significantly improved in the 1990s, unclear is the trend in SCD-related mortality more recently given the continued disparities faced by this minoritized population. In this analysis, we aimed to (1) compare the overall and age-specific mortality rates from 1999 to 2009 vs 2010 to 2020 with a particular focus on the age of transition and (2) determine the most common causes of death for the US SCD population for 2010 to 2020. We analyzed publicly available data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention WONDER database, a compilation of national-level mortality statistics from 1979 to 2020 derived from death certificates compiled by the National Center for Health Statistics. We searched by all individuals of all ethnicities, sexes, and ages using the underlying cause of death. The crude mortality rate for individuals with SCD for 2010 to 2020 was 1.6 per 1 000 000 individuals, which was significantly lower than the period 1999 to 2009 (crude rate 1.7 per 1 000 000, P < .0001). In addition, the mean age at mortality of those with SCD was older in 2010 to 2020 (43 years) versus 1999 to 2009 (39 years). However, there remains a significant increase in mortality rate in the 20 to 24 year age group versus 15 to 19 years (1.7 per 1 000 000 versus 0.7 per 1 000 000, P < .0001), corresponding with the age of transition from pediatric to adult centers. In addition, 39% of underlying causes of death were not caused by SCD, but rather primarily chronic conditions, including cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, malignancy, and renal disease. The study has several limitations mostly because of the imperfections of administrative data sources, including inaccuracies in diagnoses codes, risking over or undercounting. Although the US SCD-related mortality rate continues to decrease, the age of transition to adult care is a particularly vulnerable time in the lives of this marginalized group. Innovative and expanded approaches to care are greatly needed.

Race adjustment hides and perpetuates systemic racism: Real world example using life tables.

Extant research shows that race adjustment in epidemiologic analyses could lead to masking of systemic racism. In this study, we compare race-adjusted and -unadjusted years of life lost (YLL), a measure of societal burden, to understand the impact of race adjustment in YLL estimation. We used North Carolina (NC) Violent Death Reporting System data from 2006-2019 linked to 2006-2019 race-adjusted and -unadjusted life tables from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention by calendar year and age at death. We calculated total YLL and YLL per death from suicide and homicide deaths for non-Hispanic black and non-Hispanic white NC residents using both the race-adjusted and -unadjusted life tables. We found that YLL and YLL/death from suicide and homicide deaths for non-Hispanic white individuals were almost identical regardless of race adjustment. However, race-adjusted life tables vastly underestimated total YLL and YLL per death for non-Hispanic black NC residents. Overall, race adjustment resulted in an underestimation of 14,907 YLL from homicide deaths (3.1 fewer YLL/death) and 4,414 YLL from suicide deaths (2.8 YLL/death) for black NC residents. Our study shows that the baked-in underestimation of YLL for non-Hispanic Black Americans when using race-adjusted life tables hides racialized health disparity and perpetuates inequity.

Predicting Mortality Rates and Longevity Using Cains -Blake-Dowd Model

Pension schemes and annuity providers frequently guarantee their retirement payouts until the retirees' deaths. As a result of longer life expectancies and declining rates of death in old age, trends in mortality and longevity have become evident. Academicians and actuaries have been forced to concentrate their research on mortality and longevity concerns in particular as a result of this. Instead of a provident fund, the new National Social Security Fund Act Number 45 of 2013 established a pension fund that is a requirement for every employee. Annuity service providers are exposed to the longevity risk when the scheme's participants retire. For pricing and reserving, appropriate modeling tools or projected life tables are required. In comparison to deterministic models, which were based on projected present values, stochastic models allow a variety of risk causes and components as well as pertinent effect on portfolio performance. The long term mean level of Longevity has become more uncertain exposing the annuity service providers such as assurance companies and states to the risk of uncertainty after retirement. Most industrialized countries' national security systems, pension plans, and annuity providers have revised their mortality tables to account for longevity risks due to decline mortality rates and rising life expectancy. Kenya is one of the developing nations that has seen a drop-in death rates and a rise in life expectancy recently. Since developing nations choose to take the longevity risk into account when pricing and reserving annuities because such long term mean level in mortality rates declines and increases life expectancy, particularly at retirement age, pose risks to annuity service providers and pension plans that has been pricing annuities based on mortality tables that do not take these trends into account. The stochastic aspect of mortality was ignored by earlier actuarial models used to estimate trends. The actuary will therefore likely be interested in knowing how the future mortality trend utilizing stochastic models affects annuity pricing and reserve. Demographers and actuaries have since employed a variety of stochastic methods to forecast mortality while examining a variety of stochastic model ranges. The CBD stochastic model, which was the first to take longer life expectancies into account, is now extensively used, and a number of expansions and adjustments have been suggested to stop the major characteristics of mortality intensity. The CBD model, developed by Andrew Cairn, David Blake, and Kevin Dowd, is being used in this study to fit mortality rates, forecast mortality trends, using least square method and then calculate projections for life expectancy. Regarding the longevity risk, we take into account the possibilities of computing annuity benefits by connecting the benefits to actual mortality and calculating the present value on annuities. The results of the study showed that, the CBD model can be used to forecast mortality rates where parameters estimating the CBD model are performed using the bivariate random walk (drift).

Change-point detection in functional time series: applications to age-specific mortality and fertility

Change-point detection in functional time series: applications to age-specific mortality and fertility

The state of cancer care in Russia: malignant tumors of the skin (C44). Prevalence, quality of accounting, age characteristics, localization and histological structures (clinical and population study). Part 1.

This work represents a clinical-population study of the state of oncological care in Russia, focused on malignant skin neoplasms (C44). The study analyzes data on the prevalence of this disease, the quality of case accounting, age characteristics, and the localization and histological structure of tumors. The aim of this research is to continue the investigation into the patterns of prevalence of skin neoplasms (C44), assess the quality of primary accounting, and evaluate the impact of the coronavirus infection epidemic on analytical indicators of prevalence and patient survival. The conducted study confirmed the trend of increasing morbidity and decreasing mortality from skin neoplasms (C44) among the population of Russia and the Northwestern Federal District of the Russian Federation. A clear positive dynamics in the quality of accounting is observed. Special attention is given to the specifics of morbidity changes in neoplasms (C44) considering each age group of the population of Russia. At the population level, the age-specific mortality of patients is presented for each year of observation, analyzed in the context of five-year cohort groups. For the first time, a trend has been identified showing an increase in annual mortality from skin neoplasms (C44) after the sixth year of observation following the treatment of patients.

A new method for estimating recent adult mortality from summary sibling histories

BackgroundIn low- and middle-income countries with limited death registration statistics, adult mortality rates are commonly estimated through sibling survival histories (SSH). In full SSH, respondents are asked about either the age, or the age and time of death, of each of their siblings in turn. Full SSH allow direct mortality estimation but can be time-consuming to collect. In this study, we introduce a new indirect estimation method using summary SSH, requiring only a limited set of questions to produce recent mortality estimates.MethodsWe developed a set of 192 microsimulations representing a wide range of fertility and mortality patterns, and reconstructed summary SSH within these simulations as if they had been collected from adults aged 15–49. For each age group of respondents, we calculated coefficients that convert the proportion of adult siblings who died in the previous 5 years into age-specific mortality rates. We then evaluated the performance of this new method with real data, using 154 Demographic and Health Surveys.ResultsThe new indirect method provides mortality rates that are consistent with direct estimates from full SSH. Across all DHS, the mean absolute percentage error in the risk of dying in adulthood (ages 15–49) is 6% for both men and women. In all but one survey, 95% confidence intervals around the direct and indirect estimates overlap. As with direct estimates of adult mortality from SSH, the indirect estimates remain, however, lower than those of the Population Division of the United Nations.ConclusionsSummary questions on sibling survival can be included in censuses and rapid turn-around surveys for the measurement of recent adult mortality.

Cost-effectiveness of midomafetamine-assisted therapy (MDMA-AT) in chronic and treatment-resistant post-traumatic stress disorder of moderate or higher severity: A health-economic model.

To explore the cost-effectiveness of midomafetamine-assisted therapy (MDMA-AT) compared to placebo with therapy (PT) in US healthcare settings. A health state-transition model was used to analyze the cost-effectiveness of MDMA-AT for treating patients with chronic PTSD of moderate or higher severity. Both treatment arms consisted of 3 preparation (90-min), 3 interventional (8-h), and 9 integration (90-min) sessions, lasting ~4 months total. All sessions included psychotherapy, with interventional also including MDMA or placebo. After receiving treatment, patients were distributed across health states of No PTSD (not meeting PTSD diagnostic criteria), Non-Severe PTSD (treatment responders), Severe PTSD (treatment non-responders), and death. Each state had unique healthcare costs and utilities sourced from real-world data analysis and patient data from MDMA-AT clinical trials (including long-term follow-up). The base-case analysis considered the payer's perspective with a 5-year horizon, 3.5% annual cost and effect discounts, and an assumed MDMA medication price of $12,000 per session. Trial-derived utilities and US life tables mortality data were used to calculate quality-adjusted life years (QALY). The main outcome was an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) with a $150,000 willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold. The base-case ICER was $83,845 per QALY. Total direct costs were $64,745 in the MDMA-AT and $33,132 in the PT arms ($31,613 increment). The costs of intervention were $48,376 for MDMA-AT and $12,376 for PT. The highest MDMA medication cost to fit under the WTP threshold was $20,314 per session. Costs related to PTSD healthcare visits and other PTSD treatments were lower with MDMA-AT than PT (-$2,511 and -$1,877 increments, respectively). Utility benefits were higher in MDMA-AT than PT, with 3.691 and 3.314 QALYs generated over 5 years, respectively (0.377 QALY increment). These data suggest MDMA-AT may be a cost-effective treatment compared to PT for patients with chronic PTSD of moderate or higher severity.

Phytochemical composition and insecticidal activity of Acokanthera oblongifolia (Hochst.) Benth &amp; Hook.f. ex B.D.Jacks. extract on life span and biological aspects of Spodoptera littoralis (Biosd.)

Abstract Plant extracts with insecticidal properties are promising alternatives to conventional insecticides, which may pose risks to human health and the environment in pest management. In the current study, the methanolic extract of Acokanthera oblongifolia (Hochst.) Benth &amp; Hook.f. ex B.D.Jacks. was characterized using high-performance liquid and gas-mass spectrometry chromatography. High-performance liquid chromatography analysis identified 14 polyphenols, the highest of which is chlorogenic acid (65637.79 µg/g), followed by naringenin and pyrocatechol at 2022.98 and 1509.11 µg/g, respectively. However, quercetin, gallic acid, ferulic acid, rutin, and kaempferol showed moderate quantities. The gas chromatography–mass spectrometry analysis identified the major polysaccharide, inositol (15.52%), followed by squalene and triterpene (11.02%) out of 35 polysaccharides. The major fatty acids, 11-octadecenoic acid, methyl ester, and methyl 9-cis, 11-trans-octadecadienoate, were 9.06 and 6.30%, respectively. The crude extract and chlorfluazuron 5% EC at LC15 were evaluated for the life table and biological aspects of S. littoralis (Boisd.) neonates after 48 h under laboratory conditions compared to the control. The toxicity of the LC15 at 48 h of chlorfluazuron 5% EC (0.31 mg/L) excelled the extract (178.95 mg/L) on the neonates. Life span tests showed that the larval longevity of the extract and chlorfluazuron colonies were 27.34 and 30 days, respectively. The control colony completed its life span at 38.66 days, whereas the extract colony ended at the pupae stage at 33.67 days. Biological aspects showed that the tested compounds decreased pupation percentages and weight. Pupae malformations caused by the extract (80.56%) outperformed chlorfluazuron (33.33%). The adult emergency decreased by the extract (0.33%), and no emergency was observed in chlorfluazuron colony. Ultimately, A. oblongifolia extract demonstrated significant life table elongations and developmental impairment, which may suggest potential and eco-friendly use for its prospective commercial preparations in controlling S. littoralis alternatively to chlorfluazuron 5% EC.

COVID-19 latent age-specific mortality in US states: a county-level spatio-temporal analysis with counterfactuals.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, which spanned much of 2020-2023 and beyond, daily case and death counts were recorded globally. In this study, we examined available mortality counts and associated case counts, with a focus on the estimation missing information related to age distributions. In this paper, we explored a model-based paradigm for generating age distributions of mortality counts in a spatio-temporal context. We pursued this aim by employing Bayesian spatio-temporal lagged dependence models for weekly mortality at the county level. We compared three US states at the county level: South Carolina (SC), Ohio, and New Jersey (NJ). Models were developed for mortality counts using Bayesian spatio-temporal constructs, incorporating both dependence on current and cumulative case counts and lagged dependence on previous deaths. Age dependence was predicted based on total deaths in proportion to population estimates. This latent age field was generated as counterfactuals and then compared to observed deaths within age groups. The optimal retrospective space-time models for weekly mortality counts were those with lagged dependence and a function of caseload. Added random effects were found to vary across states: Ohio favored a spatially correlated model, while SC and NJ favored a simpler formulation. The generation of age-specific latent fields was performed for SC only and compared to a 15-month, 13-county data set of observed >65 age population. It is possible to model spatio-temporal variations in mortality at the county level with lagged dependencies, spatial effects, and case dependencies. In addition, it is also possible to generate latent age-specific fields based on estimates of death risk (using population proportions or more sophisticated modeling approaches). More detailed data will be needed to make more calibrated comparisons for future epidemic monitoring. The proposed discrepancy tool could serve as a useful resource for public health planners in tailoring interventions during epidemic situations.

Association between within-target risk factors and life expectancy free from cardiovascular disease, cancer, and dementia in individuals with type 2 diabetes in New Zealand between 1994 and 2018: a multi-ethnic cohort study

BackgroundThe extent to which type 2 diabetes (T2D) reduces life expectancy depends on the risk of complications. We aimed to characterise the relationship between risk factors for diabetes complications and life expectancy, in individuals with T2D, free from major chronic disease, in a regional database linked with national New Zealand health databases.MethodsA prospective cohort study design was employed, analysing data from individuals with T2D drawn from the comprehensive Diabetes Care Support Service database (1994–2018). Participants with known values for all five within-target risk factors (WTRF +) including blood pressure, glycaemia, and LDL cholesterol, alongside being non-smoking with normal renal function at baseline, were included. Life expectancy free from cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, and dementia at age 50 years was estimated using multistate life tables, adjusting for demographics and clinical metrics.ResultsWomen and men with no WTRF + at enrolment had a life expectancy free from CVD, cancer, or dementia of 13.1 (95% confidence interval: 9.1–19.0) and 11.2 (6.7–18.6) years, respectively. For the most socioeconomically deprived groups or Māori with no WTRF + at baseline, life expectancies were markedly lower. Life expectancies were 23.7 (18.9–29.7) years for women and 23.2 years (17.2–31.4) years for men with four or five WTRF + at baseline, respectively. While an increasing number of WTRF + at baseline was significantly associated with improved outcomes in men and certain subgroups (e.g. Other ethnicity group), this trend was not statistically significant for women overall or in most subgroups.ConclusionsHaving multiple WTRF + at baseline is associated with a considerable increase in life expectancy free from major chronic disease among individuals with T2D. This highlights the importance of lifestyle and clinical interventions in the management of T2D and in the prevention and management of associated chronic conditions.

Two-Sex Life Table Analysis of Phenacoccus solenopsis (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) on Lettuce, Parsley, and Rocket

Phenacoccus solenopsis Tinsley (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae), commonly known as the cotton mealybug, is a polyphagous pest causes significant economic losses worldwide. This study aimed to determine two-sex life table analysis of P. solenopsis on lettuce (Lactuca sativa), parsley (Petroselinum crispum), and rocket (Eruca sativa). Experiments were conducted under controlled conditions 26°C, 65 ± 10% relative humidity, and a 16:8 light-dark cycle. The results indicated that lettuce was more suitable for P. solenopsis development comparted to parsley and rocket. Total fecundity of P. solenopsis was recorded as 221.45, 158.00, and 121.64, on lettuce, parsley, and rocket respectively. In addition, ovipositon period of P. solenopsis was 14.00, 9.73, and 8.45 days on lettuce, parsley, and rocket respectively. The highest values of net reproductive rate (R0), intrinsic rate of increase (r), and finite rate of increase (λ) were obtained as 97.44 offspring female-1, 0.14 day-1, 1.16 day-1, respectively from lettuce in this present research. The results showed that lettuce was the better host plant for P. soleneopsis than parsley and rocket. However, further studies should be done about host plant pest interactions to provide successful control measures against P. solenopsis.

Sublethal effects of nanoformulated Mentha pulegium L. essential oil on the biological and population growth parameters of the greenhouse whitefly, Trialeurodes vaporariorum, (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae)

We evaluated the toxicity and sublethal effects of essential oil (Mentha pulegium L.) and its nanoformulation against greenhouse whitefly, Trialeurodes vaporariorum, which is one of the most destructive pests of a wide range of crops. The essential oil was extracted from the plant by steam distillation using a Clevenger apparatus, and 14 chemical components of M. pulegium were identified using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The results illustrated that monoterpenoids were main characterized components including pulegone (%66), menthofren (%10.54), 1, 8 Cineole (%8.36), betapenin (%3.49) and limonene (%2.01). The nanoformulation was characterized using dynamic light scattering (DLS), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and scanning electron microscopy (SEM), revealing that the particles were spherical in shape with an average size of 156.40 nm. The leaf dipping was used for the bioassays. The obtained LC50 and LC25 values of treatments indicated that the nanoformulation of essential oil (LC50: 2418.96 and LC25: 1724. 25 ppm) was more toxic than the pure of M. pulegium oil (LC50: 3223.083 and LC25: 779.439 ppm ppm) against greenhouse whitefly adults after 24 h. The life table data were analyzed based on the age-stage, two-sex life table theory using computer program of TWOSEX–MSChart. Also, the sublethal concentration (LC25) of its nanoformulation led to delaying in preadult stage and decreased the adult longevity, and fecundity compared to treatments. Moreover, the sublethal concentration of either M. pulegium oil or its nanoformulation affected the population growth parameters of T.vaporariorum compared to the control. However, the net reproductive rate (R0), intrinsic rate of increase (r), finite rate of increase (λ), of adults who exposed to the nanoformulation was lower than the pure form of M. pulegium. The overall results demonstrated that the nanoformulation of M. pulegium has the most lethal and sublethal effects on greenhouse whitefly compared with the pure form of essential oil which can be consider in integrated pest management program (IPM) of this pest.