Impact of changes in malignant tumor death spectrum on life expectancy in Tianjin residents from 1999-2019

Abstract

Objective: To analyze the effects of changes in the spectrum of deaths from malignant tumors on the life expectancies of residents of different ages, sexes, and regions (urban or rural) in Tianjin from 1999 to 2019. Methods: The Abridged Life Table method and the Arriaga's decomposition method were used to calculate the effects of changes in spectrum of deaths from malignant tumors on the life expectancies of Tianjin residents of different ages, sexes, and regions. Results: During 1999-2019, the life expectancies increased by 4.96 years and 5.69 years for males and females, respectively, in Tianjin. The decreases in the mortalities from malignant neoplasms contributed 0.12 year (3.30%) and 0.03 year (0.77%) for males and females, respectively, to the increase during 1999-2007, and 0.05 year (3.13%) and 0.12 year (6.08%) for males and females, respectively, during 2007-2019. The decreases in the mortality rates of malignant tumors contributed the most to the increase among residents in the 60-69 years group, and the decreases in mortality rates of lung, gastric, esophageal, and liver cancers had relatively larger contribution. Lung cancer had a negative effect on the life expectancies of men and rural residents, but a positive effect on those of women and urban residents. The significant increases in the mortality rates of lung, colorectal, and pancreatic cancers in the ≥85 years group had a large negative effect on the overall life expectancy. Breast and ovarian cancers contributed negatively to the life expectancy of female residents. Conclusion: The overall increase in the life expectancy in Tianjin from 1999 to 2019 was mainly attributed to the elderly and the decreases in the mortality rates of gastric, esophageal, and liver cancers, among other malignancies, while the increases in the mortality rates of lung, colorectal, gallbladder, pancreatic, and breast cancers were the most significant factors hindering the increase of the life expectancy in Tianjin.