Risk Of Mortality In Older Adults Research Articles

Loneliness, social network size and mortality in older adults: a meta-analysis.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10433-022-00740-z.

Supervised Learning Algorithm for Predicting Mortality Risk in Older Adults Using Cardiovascular Health Study Dataset

Multiple chronic conditions are an important factor influencing mortality in older adults. At the same time, cardiovascular events in older adult patients are one of the leading causes of mortality worldwide. This study aimed to design a machine learning model capable of predicting mortality risk in older adult patients with cardiovascular pathologies and multiple chronic diseases using the Cardiovascular Health Study database. The methodology for algorithm design included (i) database analysis, (ii) variable selection, (iii) feature matrix creation and data preprocessing, (iv) model training, and (v) performance analysis. The analysis and variable selection were performed through previous knowledge, correlation, and histograms to visualize the data distribution. The machine learning models selected were random forest, support vector machine, and logistic regression. The models were trained using two sets of variables. First, eight years of the data were summarized as the mode of all years per patient for each variable (123 variables). The second set of variables was obtained from the mode every three years (369 variables). The results show that the random forest trained with the second set of variables has the best performance (89% accuracy), which is better than other reported results in the literature.

Development and External Validation of a Mortality Prediction Model for Community-Dwelling Older Adults With Dementia

Estimating mortality risk in older adults with dementia is important for guiding decisions such as cancer screening, treatment of new and chronic medical conditions, and advance care planning. To develop and externally validate a mortality prediction model in community-dwelling older adults with dementia. This cohort study included community-dwelling participants (aged ≥65 years) in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) from 1998 to 2016 (derivation cohort) and National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS) from 2011 to 2019 (validation cohort). Candidate predictors included demographics, behavioral/health factors, functional measures (eg, activities of daily living [ADL] and instrumental activities of daily living [IADL]), and chronic conditions. The primary outcome was time to all-cause death. We used Cox proportional hazards regression with backward selection and multiple imputation for model development. Model performance was assessed by discrimination (integrated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [iAUC]) and calibration (plots of predicted and observed mortality). Of 4267 participants with probable dementia in HRS, the mean (SD) age was 82.2 (7.6) years, 2930 (survey-weighted 69.4%) were female, and 785 (survey-weighted 12.1%) identified as Black. Median (IQR) follow-up time was 3.9 (2.0-6.8) years, and 3466 (81.2%) participants died by end of follow-up. The final model included age, sex, body mass index, smoking status, ADL dependency count, IADL difficulty count, difficulty walking several blocks, participation in vigorous physical activity, and chronic conditions (cancer, heart disease, diabetes, lung disease). The optimism-corrected iAUC after bootstrap internal validation was 0.76 (95% CI, 0.75-0.76) with time-specific AUC of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.70-0.75) at 1 year, 0.75 (95% CI, 0.73-0.77) at 5 years, and 0.84 (95% CI, 0.82-0.85) at 10 years. On external validation in NHATS (n = 2404), AUC was 0.73 (95% CI, 0.70-0.76) at 1 year and 0.74 (95% CI, 0.71-0.76) at 5 years. Calibration plots suggested good calibration across the range of predicted risk from 1 to 10 years. We developed and externally validated a mortality prediction model in community-dwelling older adults with dementia that showed good discrimination and calibration. The mortality risk estimates may help guide discussions regarding treatment decisions and advance care planning.

Late-Life Depression is Associated With Increased Levels of GDF-15, a Pro-Aging Mitokine

ObjectiveIn older adults, major depressive disorder (MDD) is associated with accelerated physiological and cognitive aging, generating interest in uncovering biological pathways that may be targetable by interventions. Growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) plays a significant role in biological aging via multiple biological pathways relevant to age and age-related diseases. Elevated levels of GDF-15 correlate with increasing chronological age, decreased telomerase activity, and increased mortality risk in older adults. We sought to evaluate the circulating levels of GDF-15 in older adults with MDD and its association with depression severity, physical comorbidity burden, age of onset of first depressive episode, and cognitive performance. DesignThis study assayed circulating levels of GDF-15 in 393 older adults (mean ± SD age 70 ± 6.6 years, male:female ratio 1:1.54), 308 with MDD and 85 non-depressed comparison individuals. ResultsAfter adjusting for confounding variables, depressed older adults had significantly higher GDF-15 serum levels (640.1 ± 501.5 ng/mL) than comparison individuals (431.90 ± 223.35 ng/mL) (t=3.75, d.f.= 391, p=0.0002). Among depressed individuals, those with high GDF-15 had higher levels of comorbid physical illness, lower executive cognitive functioning, and higher likelihood of having late-onset depression. ConclusionOur results suggest that depression in late life is associated with GDF-15, a marker of amplified age-related biological changes. GDF-15 is a novel and potentially targetable biological pathway between depression and accelerated aging, including cognitive aging.

Family Typology and 6-Year All-Cause Mortality Among U.S. Chinese Older Adults.

Previous research focused on the individual risk factors of mortality, while little is known about how family environment could influence mortality in later life. This study aims to examine mortality risks in different family types and what family type may increase mortality risk for older adults with medical comorbidities or functional impairment. Data were derived from the Population Study of Chinese Elderly (PINE) in Chicago. The baseline interview was conducted from 2011 to 2013. The outcome was 6-year all-cause mortality. Family typology included tight-knit, unobligated-ambivalent, commanding-conflicted, and detached types. Cox proportional hazards models were used. The study sample consisted of 3,019 older adults and 372 participants passed away during 6 years follow-up. Older adults in the detached type had higher risks of mortality than those in the tight-knit type (hazard ratio: 1.45 [95% confidence interval, 1.02-2.07]). Regarding the interaction effect between family typology and functional impairment, older adults with higher levels of physical impairment (1.29 [1.07-1.56]) and cognitive impairment (1.07 [1.01-1.14]) nested in the commanding-conflicted type had higher mortality risks than their counterparts nested in the tight-knit type. In this longitudinal cohort study with a 6-year follow-up, older adults nested in the detached family type had higher 6-year mortality risks than those nested in the tight-knit family type. Living in the commanding-conflicted family increased the 6-year mortality risks for older adults with physical impairment or cognitive impairment compared with their counterparts residing in the tight-knit family type.

Comparison of 6 Mortality Risk Scores for Prediction of 1-Year Mortality Risk in Older Adults With Multimorbidity

The most appropriate therapy for older adults with multimorbidity may depend on life expectancy (ie, mortality risk), and several scores have been developed to predict 1-year mortality risk. However, often, these mortality risk scores have not been externally validated in large sample sizes, and a head-to-head comparison in a prospective contemporary cohort is lacking. To prospectively compare the performance of 6 scores in predicting the 1-year mortality risk in hospitalized older adults with multimorbidity. This prognostic study analyzed data of participants in the OPERAM (Optimising Therapy to Prevent Avoidable Hospital Admissions in Multimorbid Older People) trial, which was conducted between December 1, 2016, and October 31, 2018, in surgical and nonsurgical departments of 4 university-based hospitals in Louvain, Belgium; Utrecht, the Netherlands; Cork, Republic of Ireland; and Bern, Switzerland. Eligible participants in the OPERAM trial had multimorbidity (≥3 coexisting chronic diseases), were aged 70 years or older, had polypharmacy (≥5 long-term medications), and were admitted to a participating ward. Data were analyzed from April 1 to September 30, 2020. The outcome of interest was any-cause death occurring in the first year of inclusion in the OPERAM trial. Overall performance, discrimination, and calibration of the following 6 scores were assessed: Burden of Illness Score for Elderly Persons, CARING (Cancer, Admissions ≥2, Residence in a nursing home, Intensive care unit admit with multiorgan failure, ≥2 Noncancer hospice guidelines) Criteria, Charlson Comorbidity Index, Gagné Index, Levine Index, and Walter Index. These scores were assessed using the following measures: Brier score (0 indicates perfect overall performance and 0.25 indicates a noninformative model); C-statistic and 95% CI; Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and calibration plots; and sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. The 1879 patients in the study had a median (IQR) age of 79 (74-84) years and 835 were women (44.4%). The median (IQR) number of chronic diseases was 11 (8-16). Within 1 year, 375 participants (20.0%) died. Brier scores ranged from 0.16 (Gagné Index) to 0.24 (Burden of Illness Score for Elderly Persons). C-statistic values ranged from 0.62 (95% CI, 0.59-0.65) for Charlson Comorbidity Index to 0.69 (95% CI, 0.66-0.72) for the Walter Index. Calibration was good for the Gagné Index and moderate for other mortality risk scores. Results of this prognostic study suggest that all 6 of the 1-year mortality risk scores examined had moderate prognostic performance, discriminatory power, and calibration in a large cohort of hospitalized older adults with multimorbidity. Overall, none of these mortality risk scores outperformed the others, and thus none could be recommended for use in daily clinical practice.

Objectively Assessed Weight Change and All-Cause Mortality among Community-Dwelling Older People.

Later life changes in body weight may be associated with an increased risk of mortality in older adults. The objective of this study was to examine whether weight change over four years was associated with a 17-year mortality risk in older adults. Participants were 1664 community-dwelling adults aged ≥65 years in the longitudinal Enquete de Sante’ Psychologique-Risques, Incidence et Traitement (ESPRIT) study. Outcomes were all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer mortality. Weight change was defined as difference between weight at baseline and 4 years, categorised into: weight stable (±<5% weight change), weight loss (≥5%) and weight gain (≥5%). Association between weight change and mortality risk was evaluated using Cox proportional hazards models. Over 17 years of follow-up (median 15 years), 565 participants died. Compared to stable weight participants, those with ≥ 5% weight loss had an increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.00–1.56, p = 0.05) and CVD mortality (HR: 1.53, 95% CI: 1.10–2.14, p = 0.01), but not cancer mortality (HR: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.50–1.39, p = 0.49). Weight gain of ≥5% was not associated with increased mortality (HR: 1.05, 95% CI: 0.76–1.45, p = 0.74). Weight monitoring in older adults could help identify weight loss at its early stages to better target interventions to maintain nutritional reserve and prevent premature mortality.

European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People 2010 (EWGSOP1) and 2019 (EWGSOP2) criteria or slowness: which is the best predictor of mortality risk in older adults?

Objectivesto analyse the accuracy of grip strength and gait speed in identifying mortality; to compare the association between mortality and sarcopenia defined by the EWGSOP1 and EWGSOP2 using the best cut-off found in the present study and those recommended in the literature and to test whether slowness is better than these two definitions to identify the risk of death in older adults.Methodsa longitudinal study was conducted involving 6,182 individuals aged 60 or older who participated in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. Sarcopenia was defined based on the EWGSOP1 and EWGSOP2 using different cut-off for low muscle strength (LMS). Mortality was analysed in a 14-year follow-up.Resultscompared with the LMS definitions in the literature (<32, <30, <27 and < 26 kg for men; <21, <20 and < 16 kg for women), the cut-off of <36 kg for men (sensitivity = 58.59%, specificity = 72.96%, area under the curve [AUC] = 0.66) and < 23 kg for women (sensitivity = 68.90%, specificity = 59.03%, AUC = 0.64) as well as a low gait speed (LGS) ≤0.8 m/s (sensitivity = 53.72%, specificity = 74.02%, AUC = 0.64) demonstrated the best accuracy for mortality. Using the cut-off found in the present study, probable sarcopenia [HR = 1.30 (95%CI: 1.16–1.46)], sarcopenia [HR = 1.48 (95%CI: 1.24–1.78)] and severe sarcopenia [HR = 1.78 (95%CI: 1.49–2.12)] according to EWGSOP2 were better predictors of mortality risk than EWGSOP1. LGS ≤0.8 m/s was a better mortality risk predictor only when LMS was defined by low cut-off.Conclusionsusing LMS <36 kg for men and < 23 kg for women and LGS ≤ 0.8 m/s, EWGSOP2 was the best predictor for mortality risk in older adults.

Convalescent Plasma in Older Adults with COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Background Among all patients infected with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the older adult population was the most affected, with 80%–90% of fatalities occurring in this group. The effectiveness of convalescent plasma (CP) in older adults is considerably more restricted than that in adults, resulting in a demand for data on the efficacy of therapeutic CP in older adults. This meta-analysis of updated literature examined the effect of CP in older adults with COVID-19.Methods Relevant literature was identified from studies indexed in the Cochrane, PubMed, and Google Scholar databases between December 2019 and April 2022. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Risk estimates were pooled using a random-effects model. The risk of bias was assessed by regression-based Egger test using the relative risk (RR) and upper and lower confidence intervals (CIs) of the three included studies.Results Among 377 studies identified, three full-text studies that included 1,038 patients met the inclusion criteria. The results of our meta-analysis showed that CP administration lowered the mortality risk in older adults with COVID-19 (RR=0.47; 95% CI, 0.26–0.86; p=0.01; I2=0%, p<0.81). CP therapy was more useful if delivered early in the course of the disease (within 72 hours of onset) and in less severe stages of the disease. Mortality tended to be lower in the high-titer group.Conclusions: CP treatment was significantly associated with a lower risk of mortality in older adults with COVID-19 than in patients not administered CP. The timing of CP administration is critical since earlier treatment after disease onset was associated with a better prognosis.

The combined effect of anemia and dynapenia on mortality risk in older adults: 10-Year evidence from the ELSA cohort study

Background/ObjectiveAnemia and dynapenia can occur simultaneously. Separately, both conditions increase the mortality risk with advancing age. However, there is no epidemiological evidence on the combined effect of these conditions on mortality in older adults. We investigated whether combined anemia and dynapenia increase the mortality risk, and whether there are gender differences. MethodsA 10-year follow-up study was conducted involving 5,310 older adults from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). According to the diagnosis of anemia (hemoglobin concentration < 13.0 g/dL in men and < 12.0 g/dL in women) and dynapenia (grip strength < 26 kg for men and < 16 kg for women), individuals at baseline were categorized as “non-anemic/non-dynapenic”, “dynapenic”, “anemic” and “anemic/dynapenic”. The outcome was all-cause mortality during the follow-up period. ResultsA total of 984 deaths were computed during the follow-up (63.7% in non-anemic/non-dynapenic, 22.8% in dynapenic, 7.5% in anemic and 6.0% in anemic/dynapenic). Adjusted Cox proportional hazard models stratified by sex showed that anemia and dynapenia combined was associated with an increased mortality risk in men (HR: 1.64; 95% IC 1.08 – 2.50) and women (HR: 2.17; 95% CI 1.44 – 3.26). Anemia in men (HR: 1.68; 95% CI 1.22 – 2.32) and dynapenia in women (HR: 1.37; 95% CI 1.09 – 1.72) were also risk factors for mortality. ConclusionsThe coexistence of anemia and dynapenia increases the mortality risk, highlighting the need for early identification, prevention, and treatment of these conditions to reduce their complications and the mortality risk.

Cardiovascular Signal Entropy Predicts All-Cause Mortality: Evidence from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA).

In this study, the relationship between cardiovascular signal entropy and the risk of seven-year all-cause mortality was explored in a large sample of community-dwelling older adults from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA). The hypothesis under investigation was that physiological dysregulation might be quantifiable by the level of sample entropy (SampEn) in continuously noninvasively measured resting-state systolic (sBP) and diastolic (dBP) blood pressure (BP) data, and that this SampEn measure might be independently predictive of mortality. Participants’ date of death up to 2017 was identified from official death registration data and linked to their TILDA baseline survey and health assessment data (2010). BP was continuously monitored during supine rest at baseline, and SampEn values were calculated for one-minute and five-minute sections of this data. In total, 4543 participants were included (mean (SD) age: 61.9 (8.4) years; 54.1% female), of whom 214 died. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the associations between BP SampEn and all-cause mortality. Results revealed that higher SampEn in BP signals was significantly predictive of mortality risk, with an increase of one standard deviation in sBP SampEn and dBP SampEn corresponding to HRs of 1.19 and 1.17, respectively, in models comprehensively controlled for potential confounders. The quantification of SampEn in short length BP signals could provide a novel and clinically useful predictor of mortality risk in older adults.

Development, validation, and visualization of a web-based nomogram to predict 5-year mortality risk in older adults with hypertension

BackgroundHypertension-related mortality has been increasing in older adults, resulting in serious burden to society and individual. However, how to identify older adults with hypertension at high-risk mortality remains a great challenge. The purpose of this study is to develop and validate the prediction nomogram for 5-year all-cause mortality in older adults with hypertension.MethodsData were extracted from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). We recruited 2691 participants aged 65 years and over with hypertension in the NHANES 1999-2006 cycles (training cohort) and 1737 participants in the NHANES 2007-2010 cycles (validation cohort). The cohorts were selected to provide at least 5 years follow-up for evaluating all-cause mortality by linking National Death Index through December 31, 2015. We developed a web-based dynamic nomogram for predicting 5-year risk of all-cause mortality based on a logistic regression model in training cohort. We conducted internal validation by 1000 bootstrapping resamples and external validation in validation cohort. The discrimination and calibration of nomogram were evaluated using concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves.ResultsThe final model included eleven independent predictors: age, sex, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, body mass index, smoking, lipid-lowering drugs, systolic blood pressure, hemoglobin, albumin, and blood urea nitrogen. The C-index of model in training and validation cohort were 0.759 (bootstrap-corrected C-index 0.750) and 0.740, respectively. The calibration curves also indicated that the model had satisfactory consistence in two cohorts. A web-based nomogram was established (https://hrzhang1993.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp).ConclusionsThe novel developed nomogram is a useful tool to accurately predict 5-year all-cause mortality in older adults with hypertension, and can provide valuable information to make individualized intervention.

The association between osteoporosis medications and lowered all-cause mortality after hip or vertebral fracture in older and oldest-old adults: a nationwide population-based study.

Background: Osteoporotic fracture is a common public-health problem in ageing societies. Although post-fracture usage of osteoporosis medications may reduce mortality, recent results have been inconsistent. We aimed to examine associations between osteoporosis medication and mortality in older adults, particularly oldest-old adults (>=85 years old).Methods: Participants aged 65 years old and older newly diagnosed with both osteoporosis and hip or vertebral fractures within 2009-2017 were recruited from the records of 23,455,164 people in Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD). Osteoporosis medication exposure was calculated after the first-time ambulatory visit with newly diagnosed osteoporosis. Mortality and its specific causes were ascertained from Cause of Death Data. Patients were followed until death or censored at the end of 2018.Results: A total of 87,935 participants aged 65 years old and over (73.4% female), with a mean 4.13 follow-up years, were included. Taking medication was associated with significantly lower risk of mortality (hip fracture HR 0.75, vertebral fracture HR 0.74), even in the oldest-old adults (hip fracture HR 0.76, vertebral fracture HR 0.72), where a longer duration of taking osteoporosis medication was associated with lower all-cause mortality. Specific causes of mortality were also significantly lower for participants taking osteoporosis medication (cancer HR 0.84 in hip fracture, 0.75 in vertebral fracture; cardiovascular disease HR 0.85 in hip fracture, 0.91 in vertebral fracture).Conclusions: Osteoporosis medication after hip or vertebral fracture may reduce mortality risk in older adults, notably in oldest-old adults. Encouraging the use of post-fracture osteoporosis medication in healthcare policies is warranted.

High polygenic predisposition for ADHD and a greater risk of all-cause mortality: a large population-based longitudinal study

BackgroundAttention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a highly heritable, neurodevelopmental disorder known to associate with more than double the risk of death compared with people without ADHD. Because most research on ADHD has focused on children and adolescents, among whom death rates are relatively low, the impact of a high polygenic predisposition to ADHD on accelerating mortality risk in older adults is unknown. Thus, the aim of the study was to investigate if a high polygenetic predisposition to ADHD exacerbates the risk of all-cause mortality in older adults from the general population in the UK.MethodsUtilising data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, which is an ongoing multidisciplinary study of the English population aged ≥ 50 years, polygenetic scores for ADHD were calculated using summary statistics for (1) ADHD (PGS-ADHDsingle) and (2) chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and younger age of giving first birth, which were shown to have a strong genetic correlation with ADHD using the multi-trait analysis of genome-wide association summary statistics; this polygenic score was referred to as PGS-ADHDmulti-trait. All-cause mortality was ascertained from the National Health Service central register that captures all deaths occurring in the UK.ResultsThe sample comprised 7133 participants with a mean age of 64.7 years (SD = 9.5, range = 50–101); of these, 1778 (24.9%) died during a period of 11.2 years. PGS-ADHDsingle was associated with a greater risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.06, 95% CI = 1.02–1.12, p = 0.010); further analyses showed this relationship was significant in men (HR = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.00–1.14, p = 0.043). Risk of all-cause mortality increased by an approximate 11% for one standard deviation increase in PGS-ADHDmulti-trait (HR = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.06–1.16, p < 0.001). When the model was run separately for men and women, the association between PGS-ADHDmulti-trait and an increased risk of all-cause mortality was significant in men (HR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.03–1.18, p = 0.003) and women (HR = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.04–1.19, p = 0.003).ConclusionsA high polygenetic predisposition to ADHD is a risk factor for all-cause mortality in older adults. This risk is better captured when incorporating genetic information from correlated traits.

The Association of Weight Loss, Weight Status, and Abdominal Obesity with All-Cause Mortality in Older Adults

Objectives: The objectives of this study were to examine whether weight loss, weight status (based on body mass index [BMI] categories), and abdominal obesity (based on waist circumference [WC]) were associated with a 17-year mortality risk in community-dwelling older adults. Methods: Participants were 2,017 community-dwelling adults aged 65 years or above in the longitudinal Enquête de Santé Psychologique-Risques, Incidence et Traitement study. Self-reported weight loss was collected at baseline during face-to-face interviews. Bodyweight (kg), height (m), and WC (cm) were independently measured at the baseline. BMI was categorized as follows: underweight (BMI <18.5 kg/m²), normal weight (18.5–24.9 kg/m²), overweight (25–29.9 kg/m²), and obese (≥30 kg/m²). Abdominal obesity was defined by a WC of ≥102 cm in men and ≥88 cm in women. Adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine associations of weight loss, weight status, and abdominal obesity with all-cause mortality. Results: Over 17 years of follow-up (median 15.5 years), 812 participants died. Abdominal obesity compared to nonabdominal obesity was associated with a 49% increased mortality risk (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.22–1.83). However, being overweight (but not obese) was associated with a 20% decreased risk (95% CI: 0.66–0.97) compared to a normal BMI. Gender did not affect these associations. In the whole cohort, self-reported weight loss at baseline was not associated with an increased mortality risk after adjusting for health and lifestyle factors. However, in men, a baseline self-reported recent weight loss of >3 kg was associated with a 52% increase in mortality risk (95% CI: 1.05–2.18) in a fully adjusted model. Conclusion: In community-dwelling adults aged ≥65 years, abdominal obesity was strongly associated with increased mortality risk. Being overweight appeared, however, to be protective against mortality. Modest self-reported weight loss was not associated with all-cause mortality in community-dwelling older adults after adjusting for health and lifestyle factors. However, men reporting recent weight loss of more than 3 kg may be at increased risk. The findings of this study support the use of WC, rather than BMI, as a predictor of mortality risk in older adults.

Social participation and 5-year all-cause mortality in older Chilean people.

We aimed to examine the degree to which social participation is associated with mortality risk in older adults in Chile. We used the Chilean National Survey on Elderly Dependency, which is linked to vital statistics, in order to obtain death records. Four proportional risk regression models were estimated. Even with controlled sociodemographic, economic, family, and health variables, older adults who participate in social activities had a 22% lower risk of death than those who do not participate. We concluded that social participation is a strong and significant protective factor for mortality in Chilean older adults. Social participation should thus be promoted from a life course perspective considering its effect on mortality in older adults who maintained an active social life.

Combined association of cognitive impairment and poor oral health on mortality risk in older adults: Results from the NHANES with 15 years of follow‐up

BackgroundCognitive impairment and poor oral health are frequently seen among older adults. Both conditions have been identified as risk factors for mortality. However, the combined associations of cognitive impairment and poor oral health with mortality have not been well studied and are therefore the aim of this cohort study.MethodsWe analyzed data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999–2002) linked with mortality data obtained from the 2015 public‐use linked mortality file. Cognitive impairment was defined as a digit symbol substitution test score lower than the lowest quartile. Oral health status was assessed based on presence of untreated caries, moderate to severe periodontitis, and edentulism. The combined effects of caries/periodontitis or edentulism and cognitive impairment on all‐cause and cardiometabolic mortality were examined using the Cox proportional hazard models after adjusting for potential confounders including demographic characteristics, lifestyle, biomarkers, and comorbidities.ResultsIn total, 1973 participants were enrolled in the prospective study. At a median follow‐up of 13.4 years, 978 participants had died (264 deaths because of cardiometabolic disease). Cognitive impairment, periodontitis, and edentulism were each found to be significant predictors of all‐cause mortality. Caries, however, was not significantly related to mortality. When analyzing these predictors in combination, a diagnosis of cognitive impairment and periodontitis was associated with an 83.1% increase in all‐cause mortality risk and an 87.7% increase in cardiometabolic mortality risk compared with healthy controls. Similarly, the risk for all‐cause mortality was highest in cases where impaired cognition and edentulism co‐occurred (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.701, 1.338–2.161).ConclusionConcomitant presence of cognitive impairment and periodontitis or edentulism can be associated with a higher risk of mortality among older U.S. adults.

Physical Activity and Long-Term Mortality Risk in Older Adults with and without Cardiovascular Disease: A Nationwide Cohort Study

Aims: To evaluate the association between physical activity (PA) levels and mortality among older adults, to determine whether it differs according to cardiovascular disease (CVD) status, and to assess the optimal weekly duration of PA associated with subsequent survival. Methods: Participants (n = 1,799) were drawn from a national survey conducted from 2005 to 2006, constituting Israeli adults aged ≥65 years. Sociodemographic, clinical, behavioral, and psychosocial data were collected via interview at study entry. Based on a detailed PA questionnaire and according to published guidelines, participants were classified as sufficiently active, insufficiently active, and inactive. CVD status was self-reported. Mortality data (last follow-up, December 2016) were obtained from the Israeli Ministry of Health. Using Cox models, inverse probability weighted hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality, based on propensity score, were estimated for PA categories. Results: Among the participants at baseline (mean age, 74.6 years), 559 (31.1%) were sufficiently active, 506 (28.1%) were insufficiently active, and 734 (40.8%) were inactive. During follow-up (mean, 9.0 years), 684 participants (38.0%) died. PA was inversely associated with mortality, with propensity score-adjusted HRs (95% confidence intervals) of 0.84 (0.71–1.01) in insufficiently and 0.73 (0.61–0.88) in sufficiently active participants (p_trend < 0.001). No PA-by-CVD interaction was detected on multiplicative scale (p = 0.36) or additive scale (p = 0.58). A monotonic survival benefit was observed until ∼150 min of PA per week, beyond which no further gain was apparent. Conclusions: In a nationwide cohort of older adults, nearly 70% did not meet the guideline for PA. PA engagement was inversely associated with long-term mortality risk, similarly in individuals with and without CVD. A maximum survival advantage was achieved at around 150 min of exercise per week.

Acute kidney injury and mortality risk in older adults with COVID-19

BackgroundResearch regarding COVID-19 and acute kidney injury (AKI) in older adults is scarce. We evaluated risk factors and outcomes of AKI in hospitalized older adults with and without COVID-19.MethodsObservational study of patients admitted to two geriatric clinics in Stockholm from March 1st to June 15th, 2020. The difference in incidence, risk factors and adverse outcomes for AKI between patients with or without COVID-19 were examined. Odds ratios (OR) for the risk of AKI and in-hospital death were obtained from logistic regression.ResultsThree hundred-sixteen older patients were hospitalized for COVID-19 and 876 patients for non-COVID-19 diagnoses. AKI occurred in 92 (29%) patients with COVID-19 vs. 159 (18%) without COVID-19. The odds for developing AKI were higher in patients with COVID-19 (adjusted OR, 1.70; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04–2.76), low baseline kidney function as depicted by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) [4.19 (2.48–7.05), for eGFR 30 to < 60 mL/min, and 20.3 (9.95–41.3) for eGFR < 30 mL/min], and higher C reactive protein (CRP) (OR 1.81 (1.11–2.95) in patients with initial CRP > 10 mg/L). Compared to patients without COVID-19 and without AKI, the risk of in-hospital death was highest in patients with COVID-19 and AKI [OR 80.3, 95% CI (27.3–235.6)], followed by COVID-19 without AKI [16.3 (6.28–42.4)], and by patients without COVID-19 and with AKI [10.2 (3.66–28.2)].ConclusionsGeriatric patients hospitalized with COVID-19 had a higher incidence of AKI compared to patients hospitalized for other diagnoses. COVID-19 and reduced baseline kidney function were risk factors for developing AKI. AKI and COVID-19 were associated with in-hospital death.

Digital health screening tool for identification of elder mistreatment.

It is estimated that 15.7% of people aged 60 years and older were subjected to some form of Elder Mistreatment (EM) globally (Yon et al., 2017). In the USA, as many as 1 in 24 EM cases are left unidentified by professionals, with a 300% increased mortality risk for older adults who do not receive help (National Center on Elder Abuse, n.d.; Dong, 2009). Current methods of screening tend to miss less obvious signs of EM and may discourage older adults from disclosing EM, due to either a lack of understanding of what constitutes mistreatment or fear of retaliation from the perpetrator. Our approach shifts the focus of EM identification to the older adults themselves through an automated tablet-based tool. The Virtual cOaching in making Informed Choices on Elder Mistreatment Self-Disclosure (VOICES) tool includes various multimedia components such as videos, audio, and animations designed to educate and enhance screening. Patients screened as positive are guided through a Brief Negotiated Interview (BNI) utilizing motivational interviewing to assist in self-identification (recognize that they are experiencing elder mistreatment) or self-disclosure (inform others about their elder mistreatment experiences). During tool development, we conducted a qualitative study to evaluate the perceived value and likelihood of adopting a tablet-based approach to facilitate screening and self-disclosure of EM in the ED. We held 3 focus groups with stakeholders, including 24 adults 60 years or over, 2 social workers, 2 caregivers, and 2 ED clinicians. We used the findings from the focus groups and User-Centered Design approach (UCD) to develop the tablet-based screening tool. Once the tool was ready, we tested its usability and acceptability with 14 older adults. Focus group participants supported use of a tablet-based tool to screen for EM, indicating that digital screening benefits from feelings of privacy and anonymity. On a 7-point Likert scale ranging from "1=Very Comfortable" to "7=Very Uncomfortable", older adults scored 2.8 on average for whether they would feel comfortable using a tablet device to screen for EM. Prominent suggestions made by older adults included using a female voice for the tool narrator, larger font size, more multimedia, headphones for privacy; and having someone available during screening for assistance if needed. Participants indicated that it is difficult for older adults experiencing EM to ask for help and that any type of mistreatment screening would be helpful. They also highlighted the need to explain community resources available to older adults once EM is disclosed, especially resources offering help to the caregiver. Participants of the usability evaluation rated the tool a mean score of 86.6 (median= 88.8, iQR =18.1) on the System Usability Scale (SUS), far above the benchmark SUS score of 68, which indicates that the system is "good" or "acceptable" (Bangor et al., 2008). Shifting the focus from the provider to the older adult may encourage self-disclosure of EM by addressing major barriers to traditional screening processes. In summary, this study supported the use of self-administered automated tablet-based screening for EM. Participants generally believed that the use of digital health tools to facilitate the screening process would be beneficial in the ED setting.