Mortality Patterns Research Articles

Exploring the County Level Mortality Pattern Variations in Rural Areas of Iran (2006-2016).

Mortality rate in rural areas is a useful measure of the health of the population and the function of the health system, which varies over space and time. The objective of this research is to explore the spatial and temporal variations in the rural mortality rate in Iran at the county level in 2006, 2011, and 2016. data were gathered from the rural population and mortality statistics published by the Statistical Centre of Iran (SCI) and the National Organization for Civil Registration (NOCR). Global spatial patterns were assessed using the global Moran's I and local clusters through the local Moran's I. Spatial distribution of rural mortality rate shows that during the years under study the number of counties with a lower rate has increased. The counties with rate of less form continuous areas in the southwest, central and east regions. The excess risk map reveals significant variations in both value and extent. Also, the values of Moran's index increased from 0.1848 in 2006 to 0.4041 in 2016, which indicates the strengthening of the cluster spatial pattern of the overall rural mortality rate. Local patterns have undergone substantial changes over space and time. The findings indicate significant spatial and temporal variations in rural mortality rates in Iran. Policy-makers can use this information to plan and enhance healthcare infrastructure in specific counties. The findings serve for evaluating the effectiveness of health policies, enabling policy-makers to make informed decisions, allocate resources efficiently and design targeted interventions for improved public health outcomes.

Post-settlement dynamics of Japanese flounder Paralichthys olivaceus in Tango Bay: Seasonal patterns in growth, mortality, and recruitment potential.

Japanese flounder Paralichthys olivaceus is one of the most valuable coastal flatfish species in East Asia. To investigate post-settlement growth and mortality, juveniles were sampled in Tango Bay (Japan) weekly throughout the settlement period in 2007 and 2008. Otolith (lapillus) microstructure analysis enabled the categorization of juveniles into six biweekly cohorts each year. Later cohorts exhibited higher growth rates possibly because of higher water temperatures. A key observation was the direct relationship between high mortality and high density in mid-season cohorts in both years, pointing to density-dependent mortality. This increased mortality may be attributed to predation, including cannibalism by earlier cohorts. Furthermore, growth-selective mortality was evident soon after settlement, underscoring the vulnerability of slow growers to predation during the early juvenile stage. Although earlier and later cohorts were less abundant but showed promising recruitment potential, the prospective contribution of mid-season cohorts to the adult population remained uncertain. The results clearly highlight the importance of density-dependent mortality in population regulation in post-settlement Japanese flounder.

Elevation‐dependent patterns of borer‐mediated snow‐gum dieback are associated with subspecies' trait differences and environmental variation

AbstractSubalpine forests worldwide face the synergistic threats of global warming and increased biotic attack, and the collapse or transition of subalpine forests is predicted in south‐eastern Australia under future climates. The recent widespread dieback of subalpine snow‐gum forests due to increased activity of a native wood‐boring longicorn beetle, Phoracantha mastersii, suggests this process may already be underway. We investigated how variation in tree tissue traits and environmental conditions correlated with elevation‐dependent spatial patterns of forest mortality. We hypothesized that increased vulnerability of subalpine snow gums to wood‐borer‐mediated dieback at intermediate elevations was associated with poorly resolved differences in traits between montane (Eucalyptus pauciflora subsp. pauciflora) and subalpine (E. pauciflora subsp. niphophila) snow‐gum subspecies. We first sought to characterize variation and elevation‐dependent transitions in 20 structural and drought‐related functional traits among 120 healthy trees distributed along a 1000 m elevation transect that spanned the subspecies transition zone. Secondly, we surveyed 774 trees across 53 sites between 1280 and 1980 m a.s.l. to explore associations between borer‐damage severity, elevation, subspecies and a subset of traits that differed between subspecies. We observed evidence for both continuous trait variation in response to changing elevation (10/20 traits) and discrete shifts in mean trait values across the transition between subspecies distributions (5/20 traits). Increased borer‐damage severity across the montane‐to‐subalpine subspecies transition was correlated with lower bark thickness, whereas reduced borer damage at the highest elevations was associated with greater precipitation and lower temperatures. Our results suggest that due to possessing distinct traits associated with increased borer susceptibility, subalpine snow‐gum forests may be subject to an increased risk of severe borer‐mediated forest dieback under warmer and drier future climates. Identifying traits contributing to species' distribution limits and biotic‐agent vulnerability remains critical for predicting, monitoring and possibly mitigating forest and vegetation declines under future climates.

Projections and patterns of heat-related mortality impacts from climate change in Southeast Asia

This study aims to investigate the impact of climate change on heat-related mortality in Southeast Asia in the future. The ensemble mean from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) including the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model: Grid-Point Version 3 (FGOALS-g3), Max Planck Institute Earth System Model Version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1-2-LR), EC-Earth3, The Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model Version 2.0 (MRI-ESM2-0), and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model Version 4 (GFDL-ESM4) was used to project severe temperatures and heat indices in Southeast Asia under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects Phase 6 (CMIP6). This data was used to correlate with mortality data from the Global Burden of Disease database to quantify heat-related mortality in the region. The ensemble mean results show a reasonable level of accuracy in capturing temperature patterns in the Southeast Asian region with an R2 of 0.96, root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.84 and a standard deviation of residual (SDR) of 0.02. When compared to the baseline (1990–2019), temperature extreme indices are rising across all climatic scenarios, with a substantial increase in the SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios, ranging from 10% to 50% over the regions, with the heat index predicted to peak in the middle of the century. The two low-emission scenarios, SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5, on the other hand, anticipate more moderate increases, indicating a potentially less severe impact on the region. As a result, under high-emission scenarios, there is expected to be a significant increase in heat-related mortality across Southeast Asia. The expected impact is estimated to affect between 200 and 300 people per 100,000 people from 2030 to 2079, accordingly. Our results highlight the critical need to address health-related impacts of climate change in this region.

Temporal trends in colorectal cancer mortality rates (1999-2022) in the United States.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) ranks as the third leading cause of cancer-related deaths in the United States (U.S.). Our study aims to analyze CRC mortality patterns in the U.S., focusing on gender and age groups from 1999 to 2022. We analyzed Age-Adjusted Mortality Rates (AAMRs) for CRC-related deaths using the CDC Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) database and assessed differences between age and sex. CRC-related mortality decreased significantly from 1999 to 2011 (-2.81% APC) and from 2011 to 2020 (-1.95% APC) but a not significant uptrend from 2020 to 2022 (2% APC). Males experienced a more significant decrease. Among age groups, crude mortality decreased until 2020, except in age group 45-54, which showed an annual increase in mortality of 0.9% from 2004 to 2022. Furthermore, individuals aged 75-84 and 85+ saw a nonsignificant annual increase of 1.8% and 4.5% from 2020 to 2022, respectively. Our study highlights a significant decline in age and gender-specific CRC-related mortality from 1999 to 2020. However, the worrisome uptrend observed in the younger age group of 45-54 emphasizes the importance of implementing targeted public health measures and evidence-based interventions.

Geographical and temporal weighted regression: examining spatial variations of COVID-19 mortality pattern using mobility and multi-source data

The COVID-19 pandemic has had profound adverse effects on public health and society, with increased mobility contributing to the spread of the virus and vulnerable populations, such as those with pre-existing health conditions, at a higher risk of COVID-19 mortality. However, the specific spatial and temporal impacts of health conditions and mobility on COVID-19 mortality have yet to be fully understood. In this study, we utilized the Geographical and Temporal Weighted Regression (GTWR) model to assess the influence of mobility and health-related factors on COVID-19 mortality in the United States. The model examined several significant factors, including demographic and health-related factors, and was compared with the Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) model to evaluate its performance. Our findings from the GTWR model reveal that human mobility and health conditions have a significant spatial impact on COVID-19 mortality. Additionally, our study identified different patterns in the association between COVID-19 and the explanatory variables, providing insights to policymakers for effective decision-making.

The Global Burden of Alcohol-associated Cirrhosis and Cancer in Young and Middle-aged Adults

Alcohol is a substance that impacts premature mortality and morbidity.1 The liver is invariably subjected to the impact of alcohol, which can result in cirrhosis and cancer. Alcohol also has detrimental effects that extend beyond the liver. While traditionally associated with advanced age, emerging data reported a rising burden of cancers and alcohol-associated liver disease in the young.1-3 Thus, the primary objective was to evaluate the trend of alcohol-associated cirrhosis and cancer in young and middle-aged adults (aged 15-49) utilizing the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019.4 We chose the age group less than 50 years old based on the definition of early-onset cancer and the inherent selection of the age group in the GBD database.4-6 The detailed methods are provided in the Supplementary Appendix. Briefly, data were sourced from population-based cancer registries, vital registration systems, or verbal autopsy studies. Verbal autopsy is a well-established approach for monitoring health, providing valuable information on mortality patterns and the reasons behind deaths in areas lacking robust medical death certification processes. The researchers employed the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate the burden linked to cancer and cirrhosis associated with alcohol use.

Global trends in youth suicide from 1990 to 2020: an analysis of data from the WHO mortality database

Suicide is a serious but preventable public health concern at the global level, showing relevant geographical differences. This study aims to monitor global temporal and geographical patterns in suicide mortality in pre-adolescents, adolescents, and young adults (i.e., aged 10-24 years), from 1990 to 2020 or the most recent available year. Using the World Health Organisation mortality database, we conducted an analysis on a subset of 52 countries with valid and high-quality data. We computed age-standardised suicide rates (ASR) by sex, country, and calendar year, and performed a joinpoint regression analysis to identify significant changes in the temporal suicide trends over the studied period. High variability in suicide rates and trends was observed, with a male-to-female ratio of two to five. Between 1990 and 2020, most European countries reported declining suicide trends, with some exceptions. In particular, alarming trends emerged in the United Kingdom, with annual rises of 2.5% (95% CI: 1.6-3.5) since 2005 among males and 8.5% (95% CI: 4.7-12.6) since 2012 among females. The most favorable trends and lowest suicide rates were in Southern Europe, with 3.1/100,000 persons in Italy (2020) and 3.5/100,000 persons in Spain (2021) among males, and 0.9/100,000 persons in Italy (2020) and 1.1/100,000 persons in Romania (2019) among females. Conversely, the highest rates were in Central-Eastern Europe, with 10.2/100,000 males in the Russian Federation (2019) and 10.0/100,000 males in Poland (2002). Higher suicide rates and significant increases were reported in not European areas. The highest ASR was 15.5/100,000 males in the United States of America, with an annual increase of 3.8% (95% CI: 3.1-4.5) among males in 2009-2020 and 6.7% (95% CI: 5.6-7.8) among females in 2007-2017, followed by a levelling off. Temporal and geographical comparisons of suicide mortality should be interpreted with caution due to potential misclassification or under-reporting of suicide deaths in some countries. None.

The spread in time and space of COVID-19 pandemic waves: the Italian experience from mortality data analyses.

Italy was the first European country affected by COVID-19. Thanks to governmental containment measures (9 March 2020), the spread of COVID-19 was limited. However, in this context, accurate data assessment is crucial and mortality is a more reliable indicator of the virus spread compared to the count of positive cases. This study aimed to retrospectively evaluate the impact of the pandemic in different areas of Italy using the time series analysis of official deaths and excess COVID-19 deaths. Mortality data (23 February-30 April 2022) by Istituto Nazionale di Statistica (ISTAT) were analyzed, including four waves of COVID-19. Previous mortality data (January 2015-November 2019) were used to estimate a Poisson regression model of the pre-pandemic mortality pattern and derive the excess COVID-19 deaths as the difference between the actual deaths number and the extrapolation of the previous mortality pattern to the pandemic period, separately for Northern, Central, and Southern Italy, to compare the impact of mortality across time periods and geographical areas. Estimated excess compared with official COVID-19 mortality shows that, during the first wave, there was an underestimation of deaths. COVID-19 mortality rate almost doubled the official rate in the North (1.60‰ vs. 0.86‰) and nearly tripled it in the South (0.22‰ vs. 0.08‰). In late 2020-early 2021, official and estimated mortality curves are closer, displaying just a small gap at the start of the second wave. During the fourth wave (end of 2021-early 2022), Northern and Central Italy show reasonable agreement; the South presents a large relative underestimation of deaths (+90% increase), with a large increase in its excess deaths national quota, 9% in the first wave to 42% in the fourth. The results provide a measure of the COVID-19 excess deaths and an unbiased estimate of Italian mortality rates. In the first wave, the gap between official COVID-19 and excess mortality was particularly high and lockdown measures may have reduced the spread of the infection. In the fourth wave, the gap for the South increases again, probably because the healthcare system may not have coped with the prolonged pressure of the pandemic, or for a decreased compliance with the official paper-based mortality surveillance system that could be overcome in the future by digitalizing the process.

Patterns of case fatality and hospitalization duration among nearly 1 million hospitalized COVID-19 patients covered by Iran Health Insurance Organization (IHIO) over two years of pandemic: An analysis of associated factors.

Different populations and areas of the world experienced diverse COVID-19 hospitalization and mortality rates. Claims data is a systematically recorded source of hospitalized patients' information that could be used to evaluate the disease management course and outcomes. We aimed to investigate the hospitalization and mortality patterns and associated factors in a huge sample of hospitalized patients. In this retrospective registry-based study, we utilized claim data from the Iran Health Insurance Organization (IHIO) consisting of approximately one million hospitalized patients across various hospitals in Iran over a 26-month period. All records in the hospitalization dataset with ICD-10 codes U07.1/U07.2 for clinically/laboratory confirmed COVID-19 were included. In this study, a case referred to one instance of a patient being hospitalized. If a patient experienced multiple hospitalizations within 30 days, those were aggregated into a single case. However, if hospitalizations had longer intervals, they were considered independent cases. The primary outcomes of study were general and intensive care unit (ICU) hospitalization periods and case fatality rate (CFR) at the hospital. Besides, various demographic and hospitalization-associated factors were analyzed to derive the associations with study outcomes using accelerated failure time (AFT) and logistic regression models. A total number of 1 113 678 admissions with COVID-19 diagnosis were recorded by IHIO during the study period, defined as 917 198 cases, including 51.9% females and 48.1% males. The 61-70 age group had the highest number of cases for both sexes. Among defined cases, CFR was 10.36% (95% CI: 10.29-10.42). The >80 age group had the highest CFR (26.01% [95% CI: 25.75-26.27]). The median of overall hospitalization and ICU days were 4 (IQR: 3-7) and 5 (IQR: 2-8), respectively. Male patients had a significantly higher risk for mortality both generally (odds ratio (OR) = 1.36 [1.34-1.37]) and among ICU admitted patients (1.12 [1.09-1.12]). Among various insurance funds, Foreign Citizens had the highest risk of death both generally (adjusted OR = 2.06 [1.91-2.22]) and in ICU (aOR = 1.71 [1.51-1.92]). Increasing age groups was a risk of longer hospitalization, and the >80 age group had the highest risk for overall hospitalization period (median ratio = 1.52 [1.51-1.54]) and at ICU (median ratio = 1.17 [1.16-1.18]). Considering Tehran as the reference province, Sistan and Balcuchestan (aOR = 1.4 [1.32-1.48]), Alborz (aOR = 1.28 [1.22-1.35]), and Khorasan Razavi (aOR = 1.24 [1.20-1.28]) were the provinces with the highest risk of mortality in hospitalized patients. Hospitalization data unveiled mortality and duration associations with variables, highlighting provincial outcome disparities in Iran. Using enhanced registry systems in conjunction with other studies, empowers policymakers with evidence for optimizing resource allocation and fortifying healthcare system resilience against future health challenges.

Spatial-temporal pattern of colorectal cancer mortality in a Northeastern Brazilian State.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most common cancer types worldwide. Its increasing mortality trends, especially in emerging countries, are a concern. The aim of this study was to analyse mortality trends and spatial patterns of CRC in the state of Sergipe, Brazil, from 1990 to 2019. Trends were calculated using data from the Online Mortality Atlas and Joinpoint Regression Program 4.8.0.1. Spatial analyses were performed using the empirical Bayesian model and Moran indices calculated by TerraView 4.2.2 between 1990 to 1999, 2000 to 2009 and 2010 to 2019. A total of 1585 deaths were recorded during the study period, with 58.42% among females. Trends were increasing and constant for both sexes and all age groups studied. The highest mean annual percent change was 6.2 {95% Confidence interval (CI) 3.4;9.0} for males aged +65 years and 4.5 (95% CI 3.2;5.8) for females aged 50-64 years. There was positive spatial autocorrelation for both sexes in all periods studied when using the Moran index for Bayesian rates. In summary, a consistent trend of increasing colorectal cancer (CRC) mortality has been observed overall. Nevertheless, an altered spatial distribution among males has emerged over the studied period.

Using craniofacial fluctuating asymmetry to examine the effects of sex, socioeconomic status, and early life experiences on adult age at death in industrial England.

Historical evidence from 18th- and 19th-century England suggests that industrialization's impacts on health were largely negative, especially among marginalized groups. However, available documentary evidence is often biased toward adult men and rarely sheds light on the experiences of other members of the population, such as women and children. Craniofacial fluctuating asymmetry (FA) can serve as a proxy measurement of developmental instability and stress during development. This study examines the associations among age, sex, socioeconomic status (SES), and FA in skeletal samples from industrial-era England. The sample for this study comes from four industrial-era cemeteries from England (A.D. 1711-1857). Geometric morphometric analyses of three-dimensional landmark coordinate data were used to generate a measure of FA for each individual (Mahalanobis distance). A three-way ANOVA was used to evaluate the impacts of sex, SES, and FA scores on adult age at death (n = 168). Significant associations existed between age at death and SES (p = 0.004) and FA scores (p = 0.094). Comparisons of the estimated means indicated that age at death was consistently higher among high SES individuals and individuals with FA scores less than one standard deviation from the mean. This study supports findings from previous studies that have suggested that the differences in resource access and environmental buffering generated by socioeconomic inequality can impact longevity and patterns of mortality among socioeconomic status groups. Likewise, stress in early life-evinced by craniofacial fluctuating asymmetry-can influence observed patterns of longevity in adults decades later.

Trends in Gastric Cancer Mortality in Montenegro, 1990–2018: Joinpoint Regression

Introduction: Gastric cancer (GC) remains a significant global public health problem, despite the decreasing trends in GC mortality rates in the last 5 decades. Our study aimed to examine the pattern of GC mortality in Montenegro between 1990 and 2018 and to contribute to the future by designing a national long-term strategy for the control and prevention of GC. Methods: Gastric cancer mortality data in Montenegro from 1990 to 2018 were collected. Mortality rates were age-standardized to the World Standard Population for estimating both the overall and gender-specific trends. The joinpoint regression model was used to assess GC mortality and identified significant changes in the linear time trend. Linear and Poisson regressions were also applied for additional trend analyses. Results: Joinpoint regression reveals a statistically significant decrease in the age-standardized rate for the overall level, on average by 1.4% per year (AAPC [95% IP] = −1.4 [−2.4 to −0.4]; p = 0.007), which was due to a decrease in the age-standardized rate in men with an average annual change of −1.8% (AAPC [95% IP] = −1.8 [−2.9 to −0.6]; p = 0.003), while in women the rates were stable (p = 0.565). The results for age groups indicate that a decline was registered at the overall level, and among men, as a consequence of the trend of decreasing age-specific rates for the age group 55–64 on average annually by 2% among men (AAPC [95% IP] = −2 [−3.8 to −0.1]; p = 0.035), and for the overall level (AAPC [95% IP] = −2 [−3.7 to −0.3]; p = 0.026). Conclusion: Our findings indicate a noteworthy decline in age-standardized overall GC mortality rates among men in Montenegro, while rates for women have remained constant. National strategies to further reduce mortality rates for GC are necessary.

Beyond the sine wave: unveiling climate-driven baseline mortality cycles.

The relationship between temperature and mortality is well-established, with higher mortality rates occurring in moderate climates during winter. Studies on COVID-19 and influenza-related excess deaths often assume a sine-like wave pattern for baseline mortality. This study aims to assess the accuracy of this approximation in capturing the observed mortality pattern and explore its linkage with climate. Weekly mortality data from European regions (2000-2019) were modeled using the seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on Loess. Cycles were grouped into clusters, and underlying trends were extracted using principal component analysis. Generalized linear models assuming a sine-like pattern were used to test predictive value. Cluster analysis divided the regional cycles approximately into continental and temperate climate regions, further subdivided into oceanic and Mediterranean. While the continental region exhibited a sine-like mortality pattern, it displayed modest deviations that compounded further south. The period of elevated winter mortality became shorter but more intense, while decreased summer mortality became more pronounced yet delayed. This study improves weekly estimations of excess mortality models by providing enhanced baselines. The deviation from the sine-like approximation mirrors the idealized outbreak pattern from epidemiological models with sharper surges and more gradual declines. The results point to winter infections, impacted by acquired immunity and weather conditions, as the primary drivers of fluctuations in mortality. In warmer regions, there is an apparent shift toward a lower number of overall infections within a compressed time span.

A Pattern of Unnatural Mortalities at Tertiary Care at SargujaRegion of Chhattisgarh: A One-Year Retrospective Study

The pattern of unnatural mortalities reflects the prevailing social set-up and mental health status of the region. To understand the magnitude and pattern of unnatural deaths in the Sarguja region of Chhattisgarh, a one-year retrospective study was carried out in the Department of Forensic Medicine, RSDKS Government Medical College, Ambikapur, Sarguja. The study revealed a male predominance-affected age group of 21–30 years, followed by 31–40 years, mostly in summer. We found that head injury and polytrauma are major causes of unnatural death; they contribute mainly to traffic accidents.

Spruce Protection against Ips typographus with Anti-Attractant Blend of Tree-Based Semiochemicals: From Small Experimental Plots to Stand Scales

Tree-killing bark beetles require rapid management, such as anti-attractants, to stop the enlargement of attack hot-spots. We tested two newer anti-attractant blends, both without verbenone and one with the addition of trans-4-thujanol, in traps against standard pheromone baits for inhibition of catch. Both blends provided effective catch reduction (>95%). We also tested these anti-attractant blends in tree protection experiments for two years. We had experimental plots with a center of an anti-attractant protected tree zone, with no traditional control area, but we followed tree kills in 10 m wide concentric rings to 100 m. In 2020, we had 12 plots, and 9 plots in 2021. Monitoring by low-strength pheromone traps followed beetle flight averaging 300/trap during the shorter period, August 2020, and 5000/trap during the longer period, May to August 2021. The blends of anti-attractants were 100% effective in avoiding tree mortality in both treated trees and their surroundings. There were no bark beetle attacks on any treated trees, and there was zero tree mortality up to 19 m in 2020, and up to 30 m in 2021, thus full protection to circa 20 m. The density of killed trees then increased from close to zero, over 20 to 50 m, reaching a level of ca 30 (trees/ha) then declined. The spatial pattern of tree mortality on our experimental plots was highly heterogeneous and individual 10m-ring data points on tree kill density could not be statistically separated. In contrast, a non-linear regression model showed a continuous increase of attacks over the distance from the center to a peak ca 60m, followed by a decline. This model agrees partly with the only similar study in the literature, but importantly, it does not give a peak of kill density at distances between the first and second rings close to treatment zones. Such patterns of close-quarter kills have been observed as a “switching” of attack in this and other scolytid systems manipulated by anti-attractants, but not in the present study, likely due to the elimination of verbenone from our blends.

MEMORABLE BOOKS OF PROVINCES AS A SOURCE FOR STUDYING THE MORTALITY OF THE ORTHODOX POPULATION OF BELARUS IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE 19TH CENTURY

The article presents the results of the analysis of statistical data published in the Memorable Books of Belarusian provinces for 1858 – 1864. It has been established that the statistical data on mortality in the Memorable Books of Vitebsk province for 1862 – 64 are not reliable and are characterised by significant undercounting of child mortality. The peak of mortality in all cases occurs in early childhood. The share of child deaths in the total number of deaths is higher in rural areas than in urban areas. In both urban and rural areas, boys under 5 years of age have higher mortality rates than girls. In adulthood, differences in male and female mortality patterns in urban and rural areas begin to emerge. In rural areas, there is a slight increase in the number of deaths of women of reproductive age compared to men. In urban areas, the opposite situation is observed, the mortality rate of men of working age significantly exceeds the female mortality rate.

Month-to-month all-cause mortality forecasting: a method allowing for changes in seasonal patterns.

Forecasting of seasonal mortality patterns can provide useful information for planning health-care demand and capacity. Timely mortality forecasts are needed during severe winter spikes and/or pandemic waves to guide policy-making and public health decisions. In this article, we propose a flexible method for forecasting all-cause mortality in real time considering short-term changes in seasonal patterns within an epidemiologic year. All-cause mortality data have the advantage of being available with less delay than cause-specific mortality data. In this study, we use all-cause monthly death counts obtained from the national statistical offices of Denmark, France, Spain, and Sweden from epidemic seasons 2012-2013 through 2021-2022 to demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach. The method forecasts deaths 1 month ahead, based on their expected ratio to the next month. Prediction intervals are obtained via bootstrapping. The forecasts accurately predict the winter mortality peaks before the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the method predicts mortality less accurately during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, it captures the aspects of later waves better than other traditional methods. The method is attractive for health researchers and governmental offices for aiding public health responses because it uses minimal input data, makes simple and intuitive assumptions, and provides accurate forecasts both during seasonal influenza epidemics and during novel virus pandemics.

Mortality Patterns and Parasite Attack Intensity in Catfish Cultivated with Two Different Systems

This study aimed determine the parasite infection intensity value and mortality pattern of catfish (Clarias gariepinus) cultivation with different systems. The cultivation system used is intensive and intensive + bio floc system. The research design used is CRD (Complete Randomized Design), using two treatments with three repetitions. The research activities included sampling, ectoparasite examination, identification, and water quality examination. The total samples studied in this research were 24 fish in each treatment. Fish parts observed were the body surface, gills, and fins. The results of the research conducted show that, at the beginning to the end of the study, the mortality rate of fish has decreased. Then, the highest parasite infection intensity value was found in the intensive treatment, with a moderate infection category.

Covid-19 demography in France and South Africa: A comparative study of morbidity and mortality in 2020-2022.

Covid-19 epidemics raged around the world in years 2020-2022. The dynamics of the epidemics and their mortality varied by country depending on prevention, treatments, vaccination and health status of the population. The study compares Covid-19 morbidity and mortality in South-Africa and in France, two countries with similar population size and with reliable reporting systems, in order to better understand the dynamics and impacts of the epidemics and the effects of health policies and programs. Data on cases, deaths, hospitalizations, vaccinations were drawn from national statistics. Published data on cases and deaths were corrected for undercount. Results show a different epidemiology in the two countries in the first three years of the epidemic (2020-2022). Incidence was higher in South Africa, and some 44% more people were infected by December 2022 than in France. Mortality and case-fatality were also higher in South Africa despite a favourable age structure. The age pattern of mortality showed higher values in South Africa among the young adults. Young women appeared somewhat disadvantaged in South Africa. Lastly, vaccination appeared to have had no effect on incidence, but a large effect on case-fatality in France. Despite about the same population size and the same crude death rate at baseline, South Africa exhibited more cases and more deaths from Covid-19 over the 2020-2022 period. Prevention strategies (lockdown and vaccination) appear to have had large impacts on morbidity and mortality.