Human Mortality Research Articles

Productivity costs due to human papillomavirus-related cancer mortality in the United Kingdom

Background Human papillomavirus (HPV) causes several cancers such as cervical cancer and some head and neck (oral cavity, pharynx, and larynx), vulval, vaginal, anal, and penile cancers. As HPV vaccination is available, there is potential to prevent these cancers attributed to HPV and consequently the burden associated with them. The aim of this analysis was to estimate the number of HPV-related cancer deaths and the productivity costs due to years of life lost (YLL) in the United Kingdom (UK). Method A model was developed utilizing UK 2019 mortality data sourced from country-specific databases for England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland for the following HPV-related cancers: head and neck (ICD-10 C00-14 and C32), cervix uteri (C53), vaginal (C51), vulval (C52), anal (C21), and penile (C60). The proportion of deaths and years of life lost (YLL) due to HPV were estimated using HPV attributable fractions for each anatomic location from the published literature. Labor force participation, retirement ages, and mean annual earnings, discounted at 3.5% annually, were applied to YLL to calculate the present value of future lost productivity (PVFLP). Results A total of 1817 deaths due to HPV-related cancers were reported in the UK in 2019 resulting in 31,804 YLL. Restricting to only YLL that occurred prior to retirement age yielded a total YPLL of 11,765 and a total PVFLP of £187,764,978. Conclusions There is a high disease burden in the UK for HPV-related cancers, with a large economic impact on the wider economy due to productivity losses. Implementing and reinforcing public health measures to maintain high HPV vaccination coverage in both males and females may further facilitate reduction of this burden.

Inactivated Split MERS-CoV Antigen Prevents Lethal Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infections in Mice.

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) causes fatal infections, with about 36% mortality in humans, and is endemic to the Middle East. MERS-CoV uses human dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (hDPP4) as a receptor for infection. Despite continued research efforts, no licensed vaccine is available for protection against this disease in humans. Therefore, this study sought to develop an inactivated fragmented MERS-CoV vaccine grown in Vero cells in an hDPP4-transgenic mouse model. Two-dose immunisation in mice with 15, 20, or 25 μg of spike proteins of inactivated split MERS-CoV antigens induced neutralising antibodies, with titres ranging from NT 80 to 1280. In addition, all immunised mice were completely protected, with no virus detection in tissues, weight loss, or mortality. The immunised splenocytes produced more cytokines that stimulate immune response (IFN-γ and TNF-α) than those that regulate it (IL-4 and IL-10). Taken together, the inactivated fragmented MERS-CoV vaccine is effective for the protection of mice against lethal MERS-CoV. Thus, the inactivated fragmented MERS-CoV vaccine warrants further testing in other hosts.

Atherosclerotic Plaque Epigenetic Age Acceleration Predicts a Poor Prognosis and Is Associated With Endothelial-to-Mesenchymal Transition in Humans.

Epigenetic age estimators (clocks) are predictive of human mortality risk. However, it is not yet known whether the epigenetic age of atherosclerotic plaques is predictive for the risk of cardiovascular events. Whole-genome DNA methylation of human carotid atherosclerotic plaques (n=485) and of blood (n=93) from the Athero-Express endarterectomy cohort was used to calculate epigenetic age acceleration (EAA). EAA was linked to clinical characteristics, plaque histology, and future cardiovascular events (n=136). We studied whole-genome DNA methylation and bulk and single-cell transcriptomics to uncover molecular mechanisms of plaque EAA. We experimentally confirmed our in silico findings using in vitro experiments in primary human coronary endothelial cells. Male and female patients with severe atherosclerosis had a median chronological age of 69 years. The median epigenetic age was 65 years in females (median EAA, -2.2 [interquartile range, -4.3 to 2.2] years) and 68 years in males (median EAA, -0.3 [interquartile range, -2.9 to 3.8] years). Patients with diabetes and a high body mass index had higher plaque EAA. Increased EAA of plaque predicted future events in a 3-year follow-up in a Cox regression model (univariate hazard ratio, 1.7; P=0.0034) and adjusted multivariate model (hazard ratio, 1.56; P=0.02). Plaque EAA predicted outcome independent of blood EAA (hazard ratio, 1.3; P=0.018) and of plaque hemorrhage (hazard ratio, 1.7; P=0.02). Single-cell RNA sequencing in plaque samples from 46 patients in the same cohort revealed smooth muscle and endothelial cells as important cell types in plaque EAA. Endothelial-to-mesenchymal transition was associated with EAA, which was experimentally confirmed by TGFβ-triggered endothelial-to-mesenchymal transition inducing rapid epigenetic aging in coronary endothelial cells. Plaque EAA is a strong and independent marker of poor outcome in patients with severe atherosclerosis. Plaque EAA was linked to mesenchymal endothelial and smooth muscle cells. Endothelial-to-mesenchymal transition was associated with EAA, which was experimentally validated. Epigenetic aging mechanisms may provide new targets for treatments that reduce atherosclerosis complications.

Mortality trends in Germany in an international context

Due to its strong economy and awell-developed healthcare system, Germany is well positioned to achieve above-average reductions in mortality. Nevertheless, in terms of life expectancy, Germany is increasingly falling behind Western Europe. We compare mortality trends in Germany with other Western European countries, covering the period from 1960 to 2019. The focus is on long-term trends in Germany's ranking in international mortality trends. In addition, we conduct adetailed mortality analysis by age. Our analysis is mostly based on mortality data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD). Cause-specific mortality data originate from the database of the World Health Organization (WHO). For the international comparison of mortality trends, we use conventional mortality indicators (age-standardized mortality rate, period life expectancy). Compared to other Western European countries, Germany has higher mortality in the middle and older age groups. Germany's life expectancy gap compared to Western Europe has grown during the past 20years. In 2000, Germany was 0.73years behind for men and 0.74years behind for women. By 2019, these figures had risen to 1.43and 1.34years, respectively. This is mainly due to mortality from non-communicable diseases. For Germany to catch up with other Western European countries, astronger focus on further reducing mortality at ages 50+ is crucial. This also requires further research to understand the factors behind Germany's disadvantageous position.

Spatial clusters of human and livestock anthrax define high-risk areas requiring intervention in Lao Cai Province, Vietnam 1991-2022.

Anthrax, a widespread zoonosis in low and middle-income countries with low disease awareness and insufficient livestock vaccination coverage, has been known in Lao Cai Province in northern Vietnam for years before its apparent absence in 2009, which requires investigation as this infection is frequently reported from neighbouring provinces and countries. We aimed to describe the seasonal patterns of anthrax (1991-2008), compare livestock anthrax vaccine coverage to disease occurrence (1991- 2022), and delineate the high-risk areas to inform local disease surveillance in the province. We illustrated the seasonal pattern of anthrax and provided a comparison between livestock vaccine coverage and disease occurrence by purely spatial SaTScan (Poisson model, 25% population at risk) to detect spatial clusters of human and livestock anthrax using population derived from zonal statistics routines. The number of cases, crude cumulative incidence, and spatial clusters of human and livestock anthrax were mapped in QGIS. Results indicate peak anthrax incidence from May to October. Buffalo, domestic cattle, and horses accounted for 75% of total animal cases. Horse anthrax was more common in Lao Cai than in its neighbours and often occurred in years with human mortality. Vaccination covered less than 30% of the livestock population. We found an apparent pattern where anthrax was controlled from 1998-2003 with higher vaccine coverage (>20%) and identified spatial clusters of human and livestock anthrax in Muong Khuong, Bao Thang, and Bac Ha districts of Lao Cai. The local public health and veterinary agencies are recommended to revisit the high-risk areas and communicate with neighbouring provinces for a regional approach to anthrax surveillance and control.

Voacangine mitigates oxidative stress and neuroinflammation in middle cerebral artery occlusion-induced cerebral ischemia/reperfusion injury by averting the NF-κBp65/MAPK signaling pathways in rats.

Ischemic stroke is a leading cause of human mortality. Cerebral ischemia-reperfusion injury (CI/RI) is a primary cause of stroke. Ischemia-reperfusion (I/R) resulting in oxidative stress and inflammatory events may lead to severe neuronal impairments. Thus, anti-oxidative and anti-inflammatory mediators that can alleviate post-I/R neuronal injuries are required for the treatment of CI/RI. An alkaloid, voacangine (VCG) is a recognized antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, and anticancer agent. Hence, the current study intended to explore the neuroprotective potential and the principal mechanisms of VCG in CI/RI. The experimental rats were divided into four sets: control, I/R-induced, I/R + VCG (2.5 mg/kg), I/R + VCG (5 mg/kg). CI/RI was induced by implanting a thread into the middle cerebral artery occlusion (MCAO) model. Brain damages were assessed on the basis of brain edema, brain infarct volume, neurological deficit score, histopathology, oxidative stress, and neuroinflammation. Results revealed that VCG inhibited the triggering of NLRP3 inflammasome, pro-inflammatory cytokines, lipid peroxidation, but enhanced the antioxidant status in MCAO rats. Furthermore, VCG treatment averted brain damage by I/R, neuroinflammation, and oxidative stress by suppressing NF-κBp65/MAPK pathways. The results of the study provide pertinent insights pertaining to the role of VCG as a potential neuroprotective agent against ischemic stroke.

Mortality from Stroke in Pará, Brazilian Amazon: a Joinpoint Analysis

Introduction: Stroke is a significant cause of death worldwide. Temporal studies show a downward trend in mortality rates in recent decades, with variability between countries. The State of Pará, in northern Brazil, has a low human development index and high mortality from stroke; however, little research is reported. Objective: This study aims to analyze the trend in stroke mortality in the adult population of Pará, between 2000 and 2021. Method: This is an ecological, time series study based on official secondary population data. Joinpoint regression models were used to identify the trend of each coefficient segment of the mortality rate and years of potential life lost. Results: There were 49,259 deaths in this period, with an absolute increase in fatalities during the time series and an increase in the age group. The mortality coefficient showed a stationary mortality trend of 0.4% between 2000 and 2021 (p=0.576); however, after 2008, the trend decreased -1.0% (p=0.003). In the stratified analysis, a decreasing mortality trend was detected: -2.3% between 30 and 39 years old (p<0.001), -2.8% between 40 and 49 years old (p<0.001), -2.1% between 50 and 59 years old (p<0.001) and -1.4% between 60 and 69 years old (p<0.001), between the year 2000 and 2021. In the other age groups, the trend decreased -2.5% between 20 and 29 years old after 2006 (p= 0.003), -1.8% between 70 and 79 years old after 2008 (p=0.001), and -5.1% among 80 years old and over after 2016 (p=0.010). Conclusion: The mortality trend attributed to stroke among adults in Pará State remained stable from 2000 to 2021. Despite this stability, the absolute number of deaths remained consistently high, underscoring the critical need to mitigate risk factors and enhance the care and management of affected individuals.

Effects of statins beyond lipid-lowering agents in ART-treated HIV infection.

Antiretroviral therapies (ART) have reduced human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection-associated morbidity and mortality improving the life of people with HIV (PWH). However, ART lead to residual HIV production, which in conjunction with microbial translocation and immune dysfunction contributes to chronic inflammation and immune activation. PWH on ART remain at an increased risk for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) including myocardial infarction and stroke; which in part is explained by chronic inflammation and immune activation. Lifestyle factors and certain ART are associated with dyslipidemia characterized by an increase of low-density lipoprotein (LDL), which further contributes in the increased risk for CVDs. Lipid-lowering agents like statins are emerging as immune modulators in decreasing inflammation in a variety of conditions including HIV. The international randomized clinical trial REPRIEVE has shed light on the reduction of CVDs with statin therapy among PWH. Such reports indicate a more than expected benefit of statins beyond their lipid-lowering effects. Bempedoic acid, a first-in-class non-statin LDL-lowering drug with immune modulatory effects, may further aid PWH in combination with statins. Herein, we critically reviewed studies aimed at lipid-lowering and immune-modulating roles of statins that may benefit aging PWH.

Comparison of genotypic and phenotypic antimicrobial resistance profiles of Salmonella enterica isolates from poultry diagnostic specimens.

The spread of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria is a significant concern, as it can lead to increased morbidity and mortality in both humans and animals. Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) is a powerful tool that can be used to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the genetic basis of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). We compared the phenotypic and genotypic AMR profiles of 97 Salmonella isolates derived from chicken and turkey diagnostic samples. We focused AMR analysis on 5 antimicrobial classes: aminoglycoside, beta-lactam, phenicol, tetracycline, and trimethoprim. The overall sensitivity and specificity of WGS in predicting phenotypic antimicrobial resistance in the Salmonella isolates were 93.4% and 99.8%, respectively. There were 16 disagreement instances, including 15 that were phenotypically resistant but genotypically susceptible; the other instance involved phenotypic susceptibility but genotypic resistance. Of the isolates examined, 67 of 97 (69%) carried at least 1 resistance gene, with 1 isolate carrying as many as 12 resistance genes. Of the 31 AMR genes analyzed, 16 were identified as aminoglycoside-resistance genes, followed by 4 beta-lactam-resistance, 3 tetracycline-resistance, 2 sulfonamide-resistance, and 1 each of fosfomycin-, quinolone-, phenicol-, trimethoprim-, bleomycin-, and colistin-resistance genes. Most of the resistance genes found were located on plasmids.

Solar Alpha Particle Radiation Increases Human Mortality – An Example from the Ischemic Heart Diseases mortality in the European Union

A dangerous phenomenon for humanity is described. In the joint analysis of data from satellites in orbit around the Earth and from the health statistics source EUROSTAT, it became clear that, by some mechanism, flows of positively charged particles with high energy entering the Earth's orbit increase mortality on the planet's surface. The increase in mortality is in a zone of maximum risk in the Northern Hemisphere, parallel to the Equator and bounded by the parallels of 30° and 50° north latitude. Examples are given for the European Union mortality from Ischemic heart diseases confirming the described phenomenon. A hypothetical mechanism based on observational evidence has been proposed, according to which this dangerous phenomenon is due to solar alpha particles of high energy sufficient to overcome the atmosphere's resistance and reach the Earth's surface in a limited area of maximum death impact.

Empowering rural Maharashtra: A holistic approach to rabies control and one health perspectiv

Rabies, a grave threat in rural areas with limited healthcare access, poses significant global concern due to its near 100% fatality rate in humans and animals. The shift to intradermal vaccines highlights cost-effectiveness. Maharashtra, India’s one of largest states, faces unique challenges in rabies prevention and management, despite efforts, owing to poor awareness and limited healthcare access. In India, Maharashtra stands out due to challenges in rabies prevention and management despite ongoing efforts. This study proposes transformative strategies grounded in community engagement, education and vaccination campaigns to reduce rabies incidence. Emphasizing community empowerment, it advocates for integrating traditional knowledge with modern interventions. Globally, 330,000 people face rabies risk annually, with India accounting for 36% of cases. Limited vaccine access perpetuates transmission risks, necessitating collaborative efforts to enhance awareness and intervention, particularly in rural Maharashtra. The study emphasizes removing stray dogs and implementing widespread vaccination as key prevention strategies. The success of Goa’s One Health program exemplifies human rabies elimination feasibility and cost-effectiveness, aiming to eradicate canine-mediated human rabies deaths by 2030. Targeted interventions can effectively reduce rabies incidence, safeguarding both human and animal populations. By targeting these key areas, communities can effectively reduce the incidence of rabies and protect both human and animal population.

Modeling and forecasting mortality with economic, environmental and lifestyle variables

AbstractTraditional stochastic mortality models tend to extrapolate, to focus on identifying trends in mortality without explaining them. Those that do link mortality with other variables usually limit themselves to GDP. This article presents a novel stochastic mortality model that incorporates a wide range of variables related to economic, environmental and lifestyle factors to predict mortality. The model uses principal components derived from these variables, extending the Niu and Melenberg (Demography 51(5):1755–1773, 2014) model to variables other than GDP, and is applied to 37 countries from the Human Mortality Database. Model fit is superior to the Lee–Carter model for 18 countries. The forecasting accuracy of the proposed model is better than that of the Niu–Melenberg model for half of the countries analyzed under various jump-off years. The model highlights the importance of economic prosperity and healthy lifestyle choices in improving lifespan, while the effect of environmental variables is mixed. By clarifying the specific contributions of different factors and thus making trade-offs explicit, the model is designed to facilitate scenario building and policy planning.

Mechanisms of lipopolysaccharide protection in tumor drug–induced macrophage damage

Malignant tumors contribute significantly to human mortality. Chemotherapy is a commonly used treatment for tumors. However, due to the low selectivity of chemotherapeutic drugs, immune cells can be damaged during antitumor treatment, resulting in toxicity. Lipopolysaccharide (LPS) can stimulate immune cells to respond to foreign substances. Here, we found that 10 ng/mL LPS could induce tolerance to antitumor drugs in macrophages without altering the effect of the drugs on tumor cells. Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were identified between cells before and after LPS administration using transcriptome sequencing and found to be mainly associated with ATP-binding cassette (ABC)-resistant transporters and glutathione S-transferase (GST). LPS was shown by qRT-PCR and western blotting to promote the expression of ABCC1, GSTT1, and GSTP1 by 38.3 %, 194.8 %, and 27.0 %. Furthermore, three inhibitors (inhibitors of GST, glutathione synthesis, and ABCC1) were used for further investigation, showing that these inhibitors reduced macrophage survival rates by 44.0 %, 52.3 %, and 43.3 %, while the intracellular adriamycin content increased by 28.9 %, 42.9 %, and 51.3 %, respectively. These findings suggest that the protective mechanism of LPS on macrophages is associated with increased GST activity, the consumption of glutathione, and increased expression of ABCC1 protein. Therefore, LPS has a potential role in enhancing immunity.

Genetic loci regulate Sarbecovirus pathogenesis: A comparison across mice and humans

Coronavirus (CoV) cause considerable morbidity and mortality in humans and other mammals, as evidenced by the emergence of Severe Acute Respiratory CoV (SARS-CoV) in 2003, Middle East Respiratory CoV (MERS-CoV) in 2012, and SARS-CoV-2 in 2019. Although poorly characterized, natural genetic variation in human and other mammals modulate virus pathogenesis, as reflected by the spectrum of clinical outcomes ranging from asymptomatic infections to lethal disease. Using multiple human epidemic and zoonotic Sarbecoviruses, coupled with murine Collaborative Cross genetic reference populations, we identify several dozen quantitative trait loci that regulate SARS-like group-2B CoV pathogenesis and replication. Under a Chr4 QTL, we deleted a candidate interferon stimulated gene, Trim14 which resulted in enhanced SARS-CoV titers and clinical disease, suggesting an antiviral role during infection. Importantly, about 60 % of the murine QTL encode susceptibility genes identified as priority candidates from human genome-wide association studies (GWAS) studies after SARS-CoV-2 infection, suggesting that similar selective forces have targeted analogous genes and pathways to regulate Sarbecovirus disease across diverse mammalian hosts. These studies provide an experimental platform in rodents to investigate the molecular-genetic mechanisms by which potential cross mammalian susceptibility loci and genes regulate type-specific and cross-SARS-like group 2B CoV replication, immunity, and pathogenesis in rodent models. Our study also provides a paradigm for identifying susceptibility loci for other highly heterogeneous and virulent viruses that sporadically emerge from zoonotic reservoirs to plague human and animal populations.

Abstract 2963: Dihydromyricetin is a senomorphic agent to promote therapeutic outcome of age-related conditions including cancer and Alzheimer's disease

Abstract Aging is characterized by a progressive decline of organ function and gradual rise of susceptibility to multiple chronic disorders, with cancer being a primary cause of human morbidity and mortality worldwide. Cellular senescence represents a state of permanent cell cycle arrest and contributes to chronological aging and age-related diseases including Alzheimer's disease (AD), mainly through development of a distinct secretome termed the senescence-associated secretory phenotype (SASP). By screening a natural medicinal agent library, we noticed Rattan tea extract (RTE) has a prominent antiaging potential, wherein dihydromyricetin (DMY), the most abundant natural flavonoid in RTE, played a central role in suppressing the SASP expression of senescent cells. DMY enhanced total antioxidant capacity (T-AOC), increased catalase (CAT) and glutathione peroxidase (GSH-Px) activity, upregulated the expression of HO-1, NQO1, nuclear Nrf2 and phospho-ERK (p-ERK), but decreased malondialdehyde (MDA) level in senescent cells. Furthermore, DMY regulates PI3K/Akt/mTOR signaling pathway, NLRP3 inflammasome formation, the NF-κB complex activity and ER stress-response, each responsible for a full spectrum SASP development. Transcriptomic profiling suggested that DMY can dampen the genome-wide upregulation of pro-inflammatory factors produced by senescent cells, resulting in abrogated progression of cancer malignancy including elevated proliferation, migration, invasion and chemoresistance. Importantly, combination of DMY with classic chemotherapy significantly enhanced therapeutic efficacy, causing remarkable tumor regression and extending posttreatment survival. Alzheimer's disease (AD) is marked by the presence of amyloid plaques, neurofibrillary tangles, damaged neuronal macromolecules and redox sensitive ions. We found that DMY restrains inflammatory injury in microglial cells, reduces their apoptosis and inflammation, and inhibits TLR4 and MD2 expression. Results of small molecule-protein docking and pull-down assays indicated that DMY binds MD2 to suppress the formation of TLR4 complex. In AD mice, DMY improved the cognitive disorder of animals, suppressed inflammatory injury in brain and reduced TLR4 expression. Together, DMY represents a valid natural candidate that has senomorphic activity and can be applied for treatment of malignancies or neurodegenerative disorders such as AD, pathologies that frequently arise in late life of humans. Citation Format: Qixia Xu, Zi Li, Zhirui Jiang, Judith Campisi, Yu Sun. Dihydromyricetin is a senomorphic agent to promote therapeutic outcome of age-related conditions including cancer and Alzheimer's disease [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2024; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2024 Apr 5-10; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(6_Suppl):Abstract nr 2963.

Anatomical Ignorance Resulting in Iatrogenic Causes of Human Morbidity.

This article discusses how inadequate anatomy education contributes to iatrogenic causes of human morbidity and mortality. Through a review of the relevant literature, high-yield clinical cases were identified in which a lack of sufficient anatomical knowledge contributed to patient morbidity, such as abscess formation and neuropathy as a result of improper intramuscular injections, superior gluteal nerve injuries due to surgical procedures, and misdiagnoses due to physicians' inability to examine and correlate clinical and radiological findings. The importance of a multimodal learning approach in anatomy education for medical students, which includes the utilization of the cadaveric dissection approach to emphasize spatial understanding, is crucial for the development of competent physicians with a deep-rooted foundational knowledge of anatomy and related concepts, such as physiology, pathology, and radiology. It cannot be understated that anatomy education and a lack of knowledge of anatomy and related concepts may influence iatrogenic causes of human morbidity and mortality. Therefore, all efforts should be made to ensure that students develop a strong foundational anatomy knowledge during their preclinical years.

Bacterial Zoonotic Diseases and Male Reproduction

Bacterial zoonotic diseases hold significant public health importance due to their substantial contribution to human morbidity and mortality. These infections have been implicated in reducing the fertility rate among couples of reproductive age. Despite the increasing prevalence of infertility and sub-fertility in men, there has been limited investigation into the possible effects of bacterial zoonotic infections on the male reproductive system. The purpose of this review is to describe common bacterial zoonotic diseases and their effects on human reproduction in order to unveil the hidden roles these infections could play in male factor infertility. While there is a dearth of information on this subject from human studies, available evidence from experimental animals suggests that bacterial zoonotic diseases impair male reproductive functions and structures primarily through the activation of the inflammatory response and distortion of the antioxidant system, resulting in the generation of oxidative species. In light of the limited research on bacterial zoonotic diseases and their role in male reproduction, efforts must be directed towards the subject to unravel the underlying pathological mechanisms and reduce the incidence among the human populace, either through preventive or curative measures.

Long-term impact of mortality on population age structures

In this study, we tested the hypothesis that mortality has a greater influence than fertility on shaping population age structures in the long run and that recent mortality rates provide a satisfactory initial approximation for describing observed age structures in most empirical cases. In the theoretical part of this article, we elucidate a potential fallacy in the line of reasoning based on simulations and counterfactuals frequently used to attribute population aging to low fertility rates. The alternative view that we propose leads us to hypothesize that age structures conform, albeit not exclusively, to a standard derived from survival conditions: the age structure of a stationary population within a given period. We tested this hypothesis on all countries, using the data from the United Nations database (1951 – 2021) and specifically on 10 European countries using the data from the Human Mortality Database (1860 – 2019). The empirical results indicate that current survival conditions sufficiently explain a significant portion of the observed age structure across all examined countries and epochs. However, deviations from this underlying, long-term (mortality-driven) path exist, which our approach cannot fully explain. This is where the role of fertility arguably becomes more prominent. Several implications arise from our findings, including the debate on the relative role of fertility and mortality in shaping age structures in the long run, the theoretical meaning and practical use of cross-sectional life tables, and the notion and measure of demographic dividends.

Advancing mortality rate prediction in European population clusters: integrating deep learning and multiscale analysis

Accurately predicting population mortality rates is crucial for effective retirement insurance and economic policy formulation. Recent advancements in deep learning time series forecasting (DLTSF) have led to improved mortality rate predictions compared to traditional models like Lee-Carter (LC). This study focuses on mortality rate prediction in large clusters across Europe. By utilizing PCA dimensionality reduction and statistical clustering techniques, we integrate age features from high-dimensional mortality data of multiple countries, analyzing their similarities and differences. To capture the heterogeneous characteristics, an adaptive adjustment matrix is generated, incorporating sequential variation and spatial geographical information. Additionally, a combination of graph neural networks and a transformer network with an adaptive adjustment matrix is employed to capture the spatiotemporal features between different clusters. Extensive numerical experiments using data from the Human Mortality Database validate the superiority of the proposed GT-A model over traditional LC models and other classic neural networks in terms of prediction accuracy. Consequently, the GT-A model serves as a powerful forecasting tool for global population studies and the international life insurance field.

Use of Vegetable Mixture and Decoction of Some Vitamin C enriched Plants to Manage Hypertension in Jos, Nigeria: A Case Report

High blood pressure (HBP) increases the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) globally. This contributes to increase in morbidity and mortality of humans. This case study aims to add to the contribution of life style and diet to the control and modulation of HBP hypertensive or normotensive individuals. This case has shown that BP was reduced from 142/92mmHg to 124/74mmHg in 1hr and to 116/64mmHg in 24hr after eating vegetable and fruits decoction mixture unlike the drugs used under this case that reduced BP from 137/90mmHg to 123/80mmHg in 1hr and increased to 142/92mmHg after 24hr. This important role of vegetable and fruit decoction in the modulation of BP in this case shows that Jos-Nigeria has potential vegetables and fruits that when harnessed as food can serve as herbal remedies for hypertension as a result of vitamin C enrichment.