Mortality In England Research Articles

The impact of fuel poverty on cold-related mortality in England and Wales: disentangling the effects of fuel price, income, and energy efficiency

Abstract Cold temperatures have been widely acknowledged as an important burden of poor health in many parts of the world including the UK. Although the temperature is expected to increase in the future due to climate change, the latest UK Health Effects of Climate Change (HECC) report projected that the number of cold-related deaths in the UK is expected to be more than 2 times of heat in the 2070s even under a high emission climate change scenario (RCP8.5). Therefore, it is still imperative to take intervention to reduce the health impacts of cold. People spent more than 90% of their time indoor and hence being able to stay in warm homes is crucial for reducing the impact of cold. However, some people may not be able to warm their home enough, a problem known as fuel poverty. Multiple factors can contribute to fuel poverty, including low income, poor housing performance, high fuel price as well as competing interest in fuel consumption and other essential living expenses. These challenges have been witnessed markedly during the cost of living crisis since 2021. This research investigates the effect of fuel poverty on cold-related mortality risk in England and Wales using small areal data. The underlying contributing factors of fuel poverty are explored to study the main mechanisms. The findings can support the identification of those who may be mostly affected by fuel poverty, and hence improve policies and interventions on reducing fuel poverty and protecting the public health from low temperatures.

Risk of death in England following a positive SARS-CoV-2 test: A retrospective national cohort study (March 2020 to September 2022).

We aimed to estimate the relative risk of mortality following a first positive SARS-CoV-2 test during the first, second, and third waves of the COVID-19pandemic in England by age, sex, and vaccination status, taking into account pre-existing health conditions and lifestyle factors. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all individuals registered with the National Health Service (NHS) in England from 1 March 2020 to September 2022. Data for all individuals were obtained and linked including primary care records, hospital admission episodes, SARS-CoV-2 test results, vaccinations, and death registrations. We fitted Cox Proportional Hazards models with time dependent covariates for confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection to model the risk of subsequent mortality. The hazard ratio for death after testing positive for subsequent, compared with those not testing positive, amongst unvaccinated individuals, ranged from 11 to 89 by age and sex, in the first four weeks following a positive test in wave one and reduced to 14 to 50 in wave three. This hazard was further reduced amongst those who had three vaccines to between 1.4 and 7 in wave three. This study provides robust estimates of increased mortality risk among those who tested positive over the first three waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in England. The estimates show the impact of various factors affecting the risk of mortality from COVID-19. The results provide the first step towards estimating the magnitude and pattern of mortality displacement due to COVID-19, which is essential to understanding subsequent mortality rates in England.

A microsimulation model of smoking prevalence in England: exploring potential impacts of ‘Tobacco 21’ and e-cigarette policy scenarios on socioeconomic and regional inequalities

Background The burden of morbidity and mortality in England, is greater among priority groups such as those with lower income or routine and manual occupations. Using a microsimulation model, we estimate projected changes in smoking prevalence according to socio-economic position under selected policy scenarios that are relevant to ongoing policy implementation and debate. Methods Initiated using real-world data from adult (16+) respondents to the Smoking Toolkit Study (STS), the ‘QuitSimX’ microsimulation model projects individual-level smoking uptake and cessation in England over time. The simulation was run under two separate policy scenarios, raising the age of sale of tobacco products to 21 (simulations run from 2013–2023), and moving a proportion of all individuals quitting using a certain method (such as over the counter nicotine replacement therapy), or no method, to using e-cigarettes instead (simulations run from 2015–2025). Under each scenario, the size of effect were specified, and the outcomes simulated and assessed by indicators of socio-economic position. Absolute and relative inequalities were examined by comparing at the initial and final timepoint the i) absolute difference in smoking prevalence between less and more advantaged groups subgroups and ii) the ratio of smoking prevalence. Results While absolute and relative inequalities in smoking prevalence declined across the simulated period under all policy scenarios and the counterfactual ‘no intervention’ scenario, at the final time point absolute and relative inequalities between social grades and regions were similar across all scenarios, with the exception that the relative (but not absolute) inequality under the most impactful tobacco 21 scenario as marginally higher than under the baseline scenario. Conclusion A microsimulation model of smoking in England illustrates that absolute inequalities are projected to decrease under a Tobacco 21 or quitting with e-cigarettes scenario but that some policy solutions (Tobacco 21) may result in an increase in relative inequalities.

The UK: international child poverty outlier

ABSTRACT The UK has not only one of the highest rates of child poverty in the rich world, but also the most rapidly rising rate in this grouping. Within the UK, a higher proportion of children are poor in the South East of England than in Scotland. The huge rise in economic inequality in the 1980s caused the UK to become an international outlier in terms of child poverty. All subsequent UK governments have maintained inequality at high levels – by choice. The results are telling: children in England are, on average, becoming shorter in height and child death rates in England are rising, almost certainly due to rising poverty and destitution. As inequality rises poverty rises, but so too does ignorance of each other. Those who study human geography in the UK, if they went to university in recent years, are the least likely graduates to have ever been poor. Child poverty remains off our mental maps and largely outside of our geographical imaginations. That has to change.

Ethnicity and suicide in England and Wales: a national linked cohort study

Understanding of ethnic disparities in suicide in England and Wales is poor as ethnicity is not recorded on death certificates. Using linked data, we examined variations, by sex, in suicide rates in England and Wales by ethnicity and migrant and descendant status. Using the Office for National Statistics 2012-19 mortality data linked to the 2011 census from the Public Health Research Database, we calculated the age-standardised suicide rates by sex for each of the 18 self-identified ethnicity groups in England and Wales. We present rates by age, sex, and methods used for suicide by ethnic group. We estimated age-adjusted and sex-adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRRs) using Poisson regression models for each minority ethnic group compared with the majority population. We involved people with lived experience in the research. Overall, 31 644 suicide deaths occurred over the study period, including 3602 (11%) in people from minority ethnic backgrounds, with a mean age of death of 43·3 years (SD 17·0, range 13-96). Almost all minority ethnic groups had a lower rate of suicide than the White British majority, apart from individuals who identified as being from a Mixed heritage background or White Gypsy or Irish Travellers. In females who identified as Mixed White and Caribbean, the suicide IRR was 1·79 (95% CI 1·45-2·21) compared with the White British majority; in those who identified as White Gypsy or Irish Travellers, the IRR was 2·26 (1·42-3·58). Rates in males identifying as from these two groups and those identifying as White Irish were similar to the White British majority. Compared with the non-migrant population, migrants had a lower rate of suicide regardless of ethnicity, but in the descendant population, people from a Mixed ethnicity background had a higher risk of suicide than the White British majority. There are ethnic disparities in suicide mortality in England and Wales, but the reasons for this are unclear. The higher rate in previously overlooked minority ethnic groups warrants further attention. Wellcome Trust.

The economic burden of cancer, coronary heart disease, dementia, and stroke in England in 2018, with projection to 2050: an evaluation of two cohort studies

Cancer, coronary heart disease, dementia, and stroke are major contributors to morbidity and mortality in England. We aimed to assess the economic burden (including health-care, social care, and informal care costs, as well as productivity losses) of these four conditions in England in 2018, and forecast this cost to 2050 using population projections. We used individual patient-level data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum, which contains primary care electronic health records of patients from 738 general practices in England, to calculate health-care and residential and nursing home resource use, and data from the English Longitudinal Study on Ageing (ELSA) to calculate informal and formal care costs. From CPRD Aurum, we included patients registered on Jan 1, 2018, in a CPRD general practice with Hospital Episode Statistics (HES)-linked records, omitting all children younger than 1 year. From ELSA, we included data collected from wave 9 (2018-19). Aggregate English resource use data on morbidity, mortality, and health-care, social care, and informal care were obtained and apportioned, using multivariable regression analyses, to cancer, coronary heart disease, dementia, and stroke. We included 4 161 558 patients from CPRD Aurum with HES-linked data (mean age 41 years [SD 23], with 2 079 679 [50·0%] men and 2 081 879 [50·0%] women) and 8736 patients in ELSA (68 years [11], with 4882 [55·9 %] men and 3854 [44·1%] women). In 2018, the total cost was £18·9 billion (95% CI 18·4-19·4) for cancer, £12·7 billion (12·3-13·0) for coronary heart disease, £11·7 billion (9·6-12·7) for dementia, and £8·6 billion (8·2-9·0) for stroke. Using 2050 English population projections, we estimated that costs would rise by 40% (39-41) for cancer, 54% (53-55) for coronary heart disease, 100% (97-102) for dementia, and 85% (84-86) for stroke, for a total of £26·5 billion (25·7-27·3), £19·6 billion (18·9-20·2), £23·5 billion (19·3-25·3), and £16·0 billion (15·3-16·6), respectively. This study provides contemporary estimates of the wide-ranging impact of the most important chronic conditions on all aspects of the economy in England. The data will help to inform evidence-based polices to reduce the impact of chronic disease, promoting care access, better health outcomes, and economic sustainability. Alzheimer's Research UK.

Promoting lifestyle changes in patients with prediabetes from African-Caribbean backgrounds in the United Kingdom

ABSTRACT Objectives Diabetes is a non-communicable disease where the patient’s glucose level in the blood is too high. Diabetes is prevalent among ethnic minority groups in the United Kingdom (UK). Type 2 diabetes is a major cause of premature mortality in England. Unfortunately, the lifestyle of these minority groups has become a barrier to diabetes healthcare treatment. The timely intervention of programmes targeting risk factors associated with diabetes may reduce the prevalence of diabetes among these ethnic minority groups. This review critically explores and identifies barriers that hinder specific African-Caribbean groups from accessing diabetes healthcare and how nurses can promote lifestyle changes in patients with prediabetes from African-Caribbean backgrounds. Design An extended literature review (ELR). The process consisted of a search of key databases and other nursing and public health journal articles with the keywords defined in this extended review (prediabetes, diabetes, lifestyle of Afro-Caribbean). Thematic analysis is then applied from a socio-cultural theoretical lens to interpret the selected articles for the review. Results Three main barriers were identified: (a) the strong adherence to traditional diets, (b) a wrong perception about diet management and (c) ‘Western medication’ as a key barrier that hinders effective diabetes management in ethnic minorities, including the African-Caribbean in the UK. Conclusion To address these barriers, it is important for policymakers to prioritise well-tailored interventions for African-Caribbean groups as well as support healthcare providers with the requisite capacity to provide care.

Identification of individual-level clinical factors associated with increased risk of death during heatwaves: a time-stratified case-crossover study using national primary care records in England

BackgroundDespite an increase in heat-related deaths occurring in England in recent years, one of the key recommended actions of identifying individuals at risk and deploying targeted interventions is not routinely...

Regional variation of COVID-19 admissions, acute kidney injury and mortality in England - a national observational study using administrative data

BackgroundThis study explores regional variations in COVID-19 hospitalization rates, in-hospital mortality, and acute kidney injury (AKI) in England. We investigated the influence of population demographic characteristics, viral strain changes, and therapeutic advances on clinical outcomes.MethodsUsing hospital episode statistics, we conducted a retrospective cohort study with 749,844 admissions in 337,029 adult patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 infection (March 1, 2020, to March 31, 2021). Multivariable logistic regression identified factors predicting AKI and mortality in COVID-19 hospitalized patients.ResultsLondon had the highest number of COVID-19 admissions (131,338, 18%), followed by the North-west region (122,683, 16%). The North-west had the highest population incidence of COVID-19 hospital admissions (21,167 per million population, pmp), while the South-west had the lowest (9,292 admissions pmp). Patients in London were relatively younger (67.0 ± 17.7 years) than those in the East of England (72.2 ± 16.8 years). The shortest length of stay was in the North-east (12.2 ± 14.9 days), while the longest was in the North-west (15.2 ± 17.9 days). All eight regions had higher odds of death compared to London, ranging from OR 1.04 (95% CI 1.00, 1.07) in the South-west to OR 1.24 (95% CI 1.21, 1.28) in the North-west. Older age, Asian ethnicity, emergency admission, transfers from other hospitals, AKI presence, ITU admission, social deprivation, and comorbidity were associated with higher odds of death. AKI incidence was 30.3%, and all regions had lower odds of developing AKI compared to London. Increasing age, mixed and black ethnicity, emergency admission, transfers from other providers, ITU care, and different levels of comorbidity were associated with higher odds of developing AKI.ConclusionsLondon exhibited higher hospital admission numbers and AKI incidence, but lower odds of death compared to other regions in England.Trial registrationRegistered on National Library of Medicine website (www.clinicaltrials.gov) with registration number NCT04579562 on 8/10/2020.

During the COVID-19 pandemic 20 000 prostate cancer diagnoses were missed in England.

To investigate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on prostate cancer incidence, prevalence, and mortality in England. With the approval of NHS England and using the OpenSAFELY-TPP dataset of 24 million patients, we undertook a cohort study of men diagnosed with prostate cancer. We visualised monthly rates in prostate cancer incidence, prevalence, and mortality per 100 000 adult men from January 2015 to July 2023. To assess the effect of the pandemic, we used generalised linear models and the pre-pandemic data to predict the expected rates from March 2020 as if the pandemic had not occurred. The 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the predicted values were used to estimate the significance of the difference between the predicted and observed rates. In 2020, there was a drop in recorded incidence by 4772 (31%) cases (15 550 vs 20 322; 95% CI 19 241-21 403). In 2021, the incidence started to recover, and the drop was 3148 cases (18%, 17 950 vs 21 098; 95% CI 19 740-22 456). By 2022, the incidence returned to the levels that would be expected. During the pandemic, the age at diagnosis shifted towards older men. In 2020, the average age was 71.6 (95% CI 71.5-71.8) years, in 2021 it was 71.8 (95% CI 71.7-72.0) years as compared to 71.3 (95% CI 71.1-71.4) years in 2019. Given that our dataset represents 40% of the population, we estimate that proportionally the pandemic led to 20 000 missed prostate cancer diagnoses in England alone. The increase in incidence recorded in 2023 was not enough to account for the missed cases. The prevalence of prostate cancer remained lower throughout the pandemic than expected. As the recovery efforts continue, healthcare should focus on finding the men who were affected. The research should focus on investigating the potential harms to men diagnosed at older age.

Race and Ethnicity, Deprivation, and Infant Mortality in England, 2019-2022

England has one of the highest infant mortality rates in Europe. Much of the variation in infant mortality rates between races and ethnicities may be due to socioeconomic factors, but how deprivation and race and ethnicity are associated with infant mortality is unclear. To investigate the association of infant race and ethnicity with the infant mortality rate in England, adjusted for preterm birth and level of deprivation. This cohort study included children who died younger than 1 year of age, born at or after 22 weeks' gestation, occurring from April 1, 2019, to March 31, 2022, in England. Characteristics of the infant were derived from death notifications. The racial and ethnic groups were derived from National Health Service data and were reported by the parents and characterized using the Office of National Statistics classification: Asian or Asian British (Bangladeshi, Chinese, Indian, Pakistani, or any other Asian background), Black or Black British (African, Caribbean, or any other Black background), multiracial (White and Asian, White and Black African, White and Black Caribbean, or any other multiracial background), White or White British (British, Irish, any other White background, or Gypsy or Irish Traveler), and other (Arab or any other racial or ethnic group). Risk of death for all racial and ethnic groups and relative risk of death compared with the reference group (White) were calcuated. Analyses were repeated, adjusting for deprivation, gestational age of infants, and region of England. A total of 5621 infants who died younger than 1 year of age were reported to the National Child Mortality Database. A total of 2842 of 5130 infants (55.4%) were male; the median gestational age was 33 weeks (IQR, 25-38 weeks); of 5149 infants, 927 (18.0%) were Asian, 448 (8.7%) were Black, 3318 (64.4%) were White, 343 (6.7%) were multiracial, and 113 (2.2%) were from other racial and ethnic groups; and the median deprivation score was 4 (IQR, 3-5). In the unadjusted analysis, the relative risk of death compared with White infants was higher for Black (1.93 [95% CI, 1.75-2.13]) and Asian (1.67 [95% CI, 1.55-1.80]) infants. The population attributable risk fraction for all mortality rates among infants who were not White was 12.0% (95% CI, 10.3%-13.8%) (unadjusted), 9.8% (95% CI, 8.0%-11.7%) (adjusted for deprivation), 7.7% (95% CI, 5.9%-9.5%) (adjusted for gestational age at birth), and 12.8% (95% CI, 11.0%-14.5%) (adjusted for region of England). This cohort study suggests that the proportion of infants who died before 1 year of age is associated with race and ethnicity, with a population attributable risk fraction of 12.0%. An overconservative adjustment for deprivation did not explain the overall patterns seen. Approximately half the population attributable risk fraction may be due to increased risk of preterm birth in Asian and Black communities. Work is needed to identify what can be done to reduce this incidence of infant mortality.

Effect of a doctor working during the festive period on population health: natural experiment using 60 years of Doctor Who episodes (the TARDIS study).

To examine the effect of a (fictional) doctor working during the festive period on population health. Natural experiment. England, Wales, and the UK. Age standardised annual mortality rates in England, Wales, and the UK from 1963, when the BBC first broadcast Doctor Who, a fictional programme with a character called the Doctor who fights villains and intervenes to save others while travelling through space and time. Mortality rates were modelled in a time series analysis accounting for non-linear trends over time, and associations were estimated in relation to a new Doctor Who episode broadcast during the previous festive period, 24 December to 1 January. An interrupted time series analysis modelled the shift in mortality rates from 2005, when festive episodes of Doctor Who could be classed as a yearly Christmas intervention. 31 festive periods from 1963 have featured a new Doctor Who episode, including 14 broadcast on Christmas Day. In time series analyses, an association was found between broadcasts during the festive period and subsequent lower annual mortality rates. In particular, episodes shown on Christmas Day were associated with 0.60 fewer deaths per 1000 person years (95% confidence interval 0.21 to 0.99; P=0.003) in England and Wales and 0.40 fewer deaths per 1000 person years (0.08 to 0.73; P=0.02) in the UK. The interrupted time series analysis showed a strong shift (reduction) in mortality rates from 2005 onwards in association with the Doctor Who Christmas intervention, with a mean 0.73 fewer deaths per 1000 person years (0.21 to 1.26; P=0.01) in England and Wales and a mean 0.62 fewer deaths per 1000 person years (0.16 to 1.09; P=0.01) in the UK. A new Doctor Who episode shown every festive period, especially on Christmas Day, was associated with reduced mortality rates in England, Wales, and the UK, suggesting that a doctor working over the festive period could lower mortality rates. This finding reinforces why healthcare provision should not be taken for granted and may prompt the BBC and Disney+ to televise new episodes of Doctor Who every festive period, ideally on Christmas Day.

Excess mortality in England post COVID-19 pandemic: implications for secondary prevention

Excess mortality in England post COVID-19 pandemic: implications for secondary prevention

Clinical and health inequality risk factors for non-COVID-related sepsis during the global COVID-19 pandemic: a national case-control and cohort study

Sepsis, characterised by significant morbidity and mortality, is intricately linked to socioeconomic disparities and pre-admission clinical histories. This study aspires to elucidate the association between non-COVID-19 related sepsis and health inequality risk factors amidst the pandemic in England, with a secondary focus on their association with 30-day sepsis mortality. With the approval of NHS England, we harnessed the OpenSAFELY platform to execute a cohort study and a 1:6 matched case-control study. A sepsis diagnosis was identified from the incident hospital admissions record using ICD-10 codes. This encompassed 248,767 cases with non-COVID-19 sepsis from a cohort of 22.0 million individuals spanning January 1, 2019, to June 31, 2022. Socioeconomic deprivation was gauged using the Index of Multiple Deprivation score, reflecting indicators like income, employment, and education. Hospitalisation-related sepsis diagnoses were categorised as community-acquired or hospital-acquired. Cases were matched to controls who had no recorded diagnosis of sepsis, based on age (stepwise), sex, and calendar month. The eligibility criteria for controls were established primarily on the absence of a recorded sepsis diagnosis. Associations between potential predictors and odds of developing non-COVID-19 sepsis underwent assessment through conditional logistic regression models, with multivariable regression determining odds ratios (ORs) for 30-day mortality. The study included 224,361 (10.2%) cases with non-COVID-19 sepsis and 1,346,166 matched controls. The most socioeconomic deprived quintile was associated with higher odds of developing non-COVID-19 sepsis than the least deprived quintile (crude OR 1.80 [95% CI 1.77-1.83]). Other risk factors (after adjusting comorbidities) such as learning disability (adjusted OR 3.53 [3.35-3.73]), chronic liver disease (adjusted OR 3.08 [2.97-3.19]), chronic kidney disease (stage 4: adjusted OR 2.62 [2.55-2.70], stage 5: adjusted OR 6.23 [5.81-6.69]), cancer, neurological disease, immunosuppressive conditions were also associated with developing non-COVID-19 sepsis. The incidence rate of non-COVID-19 sepsis decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic and rebounded to pre-pandemic levels (April 2021) after national lockdowns had been lifted. The 30-day mortality risk in cases with non-COVID-19 sepsis was higher for the most deprived quintile across all periods. Socioeconomic deprivation, comorbidity and learning disabilities were associated with an increased odds of developing non-COVID-19 related sepsis and 30-day mortality in England. This study highlights the need to improve the prevention of sepsis, including more precise targeting of antimicrobials to higher-risk patients. The UK Health Security Agency, Health Data Research UK, and National Institute for Health Research.

Salt intake, blood pressure and cardiovascular disease mortality in England, 2003-2018.

The aim of this study was to assess the changes in salt intake and concomitant changes in blood pressure (BP) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in England from 2003 to 2018. National surveys and death registration data were used for the analysis of salt intake as measured by 24-h urinary sodium excretion (449-1069 participants per year), BP (2651-6738 participants per year) and CVD mortality. A decline in salt intake from 9.38 (SD 4.64) to 7.58 (3.41) g/d was observed between 2003 and 2014 ( P < 0.01), followed by an increase to 8.39 (4.13) g/d in 2018 ( P < 0.01). Similar trends in BP and CVD mortality were also observed between 2003 and 2018. SBP/DBP decreased from 125.3 (15.92)/74.48 (11.33) mmHg to 122.57 (14.92)/73.33 (10.75) mmHg between 2003 and 2014 ( P < 0.01), followed by a plateau up to 2018 [122.04 (14.64)/73.84 (10.54) mmHg, P > 0.05]. Likewise, a fall in stroke and ischaemic heart disease mortality rates was observed between 2003 and 2014, from 12.24 and 43.44 cases per 100 000, to 8.19 and 27.23 cases per 100 000 ( P < 0.01), respectively, followed by a plateau afterwards ( P > 0.05). The UK salt reduction programme was initially successful in reducing population salt intake by 19% (from 9.38 g/d in 2003 to 7.58 g/d in 2014). However, in recent years, the programme stalled and thus led to an interruption in the decline of salt intake. BP and CVD mortality reduction was also interrupted when salt reduction stalled. The changes in salt intake may have played an important role in the concomitant changes in BP and CVD mortality. Urgent action is needed to reinvigorate the UK's once world-leading salt reduction programme.

Bleeding related hospitalizations and mortality in England 2014-2019.

Acute bleeding is common and associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Epidemiological studies evaluating trends in bleeding-related hospitalisations and mortality are important as they have potential to guide resource allocation and service provision, however, despite this literature evaluating the national burden and annual trends are lacking. Our objective was to report the national burden and incidence of bleeding-related hospitalisation and mortality.This was a population-based review of all people in England between 2014 and 2019 either admitted to an acute care ward of a National Health Service (NHS) English hospital, or who died. Admissions and deaths were required to have a primary diagnosis of significant bleeding.There was a total of 3,238,427 hospitalisations with a mean of 539,738 ± 6033 per year and 81,264 deaths with a mean of 13,544 ± 331 per year attributable to bleeding. The mean annual incident rate for bleeding-related hospitalisations was 975 per 100,000 patient years and for mortality was 24.45. Over the study period there was a significant 8.2% reduction in bleeding related deaths (χ2 test for trend 91.4, p < 0.001). A direct relationship between increasing age and incidence of bleeding-related hospitalisation and mortality was seen.Bleeding remains a common cause of hospitalisation and death. The reduction in bleeding related mortality requires further investigation. This data may serve to guide future interventions designed to reduce bleeding-related morbidity and mortality.

#6004 THE EFFECT OF COVID-19 WITH OR WITHOUT ACUTE KIDNEY INJURY ON INPATIENT MORTALITY IN ENGLAND

Abstract Background and Aims COVID-19 and acute kidney injury (AKI) are each associated with increased mortality but the interaction between these two conditions has not been adequately investigated with appropriate control groups. The aim of this national study was to assess patient characteristics and mortality and well as associations with higher mortality in patients with or without COVID and with or without AKI. Method We extracted 3,324,748 finished consultant episodes (FCE) of all adult patients admitted patients between March 20 and March 21 from England's national database of all hospitals. We excluded patients on chronic dialysis, acute dialysis in CKD, acute dialysis with no AKI codes or not residing in England. We also excluded multiple FCEs within same spell and duplicate FCEs. We extracted all diagnoses and procedure codes for the cohort. We divided the study period in two phases of SARS CoV-2 strains. “Other” strain of SAR CoV-2 was dominant between 1st March 2020 and 21st December 2020 and “Alfa” strain was dominant between 22nd December 2020 to 17th May 2021. The end date of each phase was based on more than 50% decline in each variant. We further categorised phases based on publication of the RECOVERY trial. Results There were 663,628 patients with 2,385,337 admissions out which 856,544 had AKI as identified by N17 codes while 1,528,793 had no AKI. There were 1,008,774 admissions in 133,988 patients who did not have AKI or COVID (group 1) and 520,019 admissions in 256,037 patients who had COVID (group 2). Amongst admission with AKI, there were 630,342 admissions in 218,270 patients who did not have COVID-19 (group 3) and 226,202 admissions with COVID in 55,333 patients (group 4). Patients in group 4 were older (75.4 ± 13.8 years) and had greater length of stay (17.1 ± 17 days) than all other groups. Acute dialysis was performed in 1.4% of patients in group 3 and 3.6% of patients in group 4. Crude in-hospital mortality was highest in group 4 at 28.7% and lowest in group 1 (1.1%). Critical care requirement was lowest in group 1 (1.2%) compared to group 4 (10.9%) as was ITU mortality (4.8% versus 47.8%). In multivariable analysis, when compared with group 1, patients in group 4 had highest odds of death (OR 22.28, 95%CI 21.79, 22.78) followed by patients with group 2 (OR 9.67, 95%CI 9.46, 9.88) (Figure 1). Patients in group 3 had OR of 6.44, 95%CI 6.30, 6.58. Odds of death were lower during post-RECOVERY phase with “Other” (OR 0.80, 95%CI 0.79, 0.81) and "Alfa" (OR 0.86, 95%CI 0.85, 0.87) SARS CoV-2 strains (Figure 2). Conclusion This national study shows that the COVID pandemic had great impact on mortality in England and the odds of death increased substantially when complicated by AKI. Moreover, AKI associated with COVID was associated with a substantially higher odds of death than AKI due to other causes. The change in practice after publication of the RECOVERY trial was associated with a lower odds of death.

Community factors and excess mortality in the COVID-19 pandemic in England, Italy and Sweden.

Analyses of coronavirus disease 19 suggest specific risk factors make communities more or less vulnerable to pandemic-related deaths within countries. What is unclear is whether the characteristics affecting vulnerability of small communities within countries produce similar patterns of excess mortality across countries with different demographics and public health responses to the pandemic. Our aim is to quantify community-level variations in excess mortality within England, Italy and Sweden and identify how such spatial variability was driven by community-level characteristics. We applied a two-stage Bayesian model to quantify inequalities in excess mortality in people aged 40 years and older at the community level in England, Italy and Sweden during the first year of the pandemic (March 2020-February 2021). We used community characteristics measuring deprivation, air pollution, living conditions, population density and movement of people as covariates to quantify their associations with excess mortality. We found just under half of communities in England (48.1%) and Italy (45.8%) had an excess mortality of over 300 per 100 000 males over the age of 40, while for Sweden that covered 23.1% of communities. We showed that deprivation is a strong predictor of excess mortality across the three countries, and communities with high levels of overcrowding were associated with higher excess mortality in England and Sweden. These results highlight some international similarities in factors affecting mortality that will help policy makers target public health measures to increase resilience to the mortality impacts of this and future pandemics.

Staffing levels and hospital mortality in England: a national panel study using routinely collected data

ObjectivesExamine the association between multiple clinical staff levels and case-mix adjusted patient mortality in English hospitals. Most studies investigating the association between hospital staffing levels and mortality have focused on...

Trends in Hospital Admissions, Operative Approaches, and Mortality Related to Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms in England Between 1998 and 2020

To assess trends in abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) hospital admissions, interventions, and aneurysm related mortality in England, and to examine the impact of endovascular repair on mortality for the years 1998 - 2020. Hospital admission and operative approach (endovascular aortic aneurysm repair, or open surgical repair [OSR]) using Hospital Episodes Statistics (HES), and aneurysm related mortality data from the Office for National Statistics for England standardised to the 2013 European Standard Population, were analysed using linear regression and Joinpoint regression analyses. Aneurysm related mortality was compared between the pre-endovascular era (1998 - 2010) and the endovascular era (2011 - 2019). A declining trend in hospital admission incidence was observed, mainly due to a decline in ruptured admissions from 34.6 per 100 000 (95% confidence interval [CI] 33.5 - 35.6) to 13.5 per 100 000 (95% CI 12.9 - 14.2; βi = -1.04, r2 = .97, p < .001). Operative interventions have been declining over the last 23 years mainly due to the statistically significant decline in open procedures (41.2 per 100 000 in 2000 [95% CI 40 - 42.3] to 9.6 per 100 000 [95% CI 9.1 - 10.1]; βi = -1.92, r2 = .95; p < .001). There was an increasing trend toward endovascular procedures (5.8 per 100 000 [95% CI 5.3 - 6.2] in 2006 to 16.9 per 100 000 [95% CI 16.2 - 17.5] in 2020; βi = .82, r2 = .30, p = .040). Reductions in aneurysm related mortality due to AAAs were observed for males and females, irrespective of age and rupture status. A significant decrease in hospital admissions for AAAs was observed over the last 23 years in England, paralleled by a shift toward endovascular repair and a decline in OSR. Declines in aneurysm related mortality were observed overall, and in the endovascular era irrespective of age, sex, and rupture status.