Mortality Counts Research Articles

Evolution of temperature-attributable mortality trends looking at social inequalities: An observational case study of urban maladaptation to cold and heat

BackgroundTo date, little is known about the temporal variation of the temperature-mortality association among different demographic and socio-economic groups. The aim of this work is to investigate trends in cold- and heat- attributable mortality risk and burden by sex, age, education, marital status, and number of household occupants in the city of Turin, Italy. MethodsWe collected daily time-series of temperature and mortality counts by demographic and socio-economic groups for the period 1982–2018 in Turin. We applied standard quasi-Poisson regression models to data subsets of 25-year moving subperiods, and we estimated the temperature-mortality associations with distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM). We provided cross-linkages between the evolution of minimum mortality temperatures, relative risks of mortality and temperature-attributable deaths under cold and hot conditions. ResultsOur findings highlighted an overall increase in risk trends under cold and heat conditions. All-cause mortality at the 1st percentile increased from 1.15 (95% CI: 1.04; 1.28) in 1982–2006 to 1.24 (95% CI: 1.11; 1.38) in 1994–2018, while at the 99th percentile the risk shifted from 1.51 (95% CI: 1.41; 1.61) to 1.59 (95% CI: 1.49; 1.71). In relation to social differences, women were characterized by greater values in respect to men, and similar estimates were observed among the elderly in respect to the youngest subgroup. Risk trends by educational subgroups were mixed, according to the reference temperature condition. Finally, individuals living in conditions of isolation were characterized by higher risks, with an increasing vulnerability throughout time. ConclusionsThe overall increase in cold- and heat- related mortality risk suggests a maladaptation to ambient temperatures in Turin. Despite alert systems in place increase public awareness and improve the efficiency of existing health services at the local level, they do not necessarily prevent risks in a homogeneous way. Targeted public health responses to cold and heat in Turin are urgently needed to adapt to extreme temperatures due to climate change.

Associations and burdens of relative humidity with cause-specific mortality in three Chinese cities.

This study aimed to investigate the association between relative humidity (RH) and various cause of mortality, and then quantify the RH-related mortality fraction of low and high RH under the assumption that causal effects exist. Daily cause-specific mortality counts from 2008 to 2011, and contemporaneous meteorological data in three Chinese cities were collected. Distributed lag nonlinear models were adopted to quantify the nonlinear and delayed effects of RH on mortality risk. Low and high RH were defined as RH lower or higher than the minimum mortality risk RH (MMRH), respectively. Corresponding RH-related mortality fractions were calculated in the explanatory analysis. From the three cities, 736,301 deaths were collected. RH (mean ± standard deviation) were 50.9 ± 20.0 for Beijing, 75.5 ± 8.6 for Chengdu, and 70.8 ± 14.6 for Nanjing. We found that low RH in Beijing and high RH (about 80-90%) in Chengdu was associated with increased all-cause mortality risk. Both low and high RH may increase the CVD mortality risk in Beijing. Both low and high (about 80-85%) RH may increase the COPD mortality risk in Chengdu. Low RH (about < 45%) was associated with increased diabetes mortality risk in Nanjing. Effects of extreme low and extreme high RH were delayed in these cities, except that extreme low effects on COPD mortality appeared immediately in Chengdu. The effects of extreme low RH are higher than that of the extreme high RH in Beijing and Nanjing, while contrary in Chengdu. Finally, under the causal effect assumption, 6.80% (95% eCI: 2.90, 10.73) all-cause mortality and 12.48% (95% eCI: 7.17, 16.80) CVD deaths in Beijing, 9.59% (95% eCI: 1.38, 16.88) COPD deaths in Chengdu, and 23.79% (95% eCI: 0.92, 387.93) diabetes mortality in Nanjing were attributable to RH. Our study provided insights into RH-mortality risk, helped draw relative intervention policies, and is also significant for future predictions of climate change effects under different scenarios.

Pyrethroid Susceptibility in Stomoxys calcitrans and Stomoxys indicus (Diptera: Muscidae) Collected from Cattle Farms in Southern Thailand.

Simple SummaryStable flies (Stomoxys spp.) are important blood-sucking insect pests worldwide that cause problems in various animal production systems. The most common species found in Thailand are Stomoxys calcitrans (Linnaeus, 1758) and Stomoxys indicus Picard, 1908 (Diptera: Muscidae). Stable flies can be controlled by many methods, with the main approaches relying on insecticides. However, insecticide resistance has been widely reported in stable flies. This study addresses related gaps in knowledge, especially regarding pyrethroid insecticides, which are used in and around agricultural farms and in households. Adult stable flies of each species were collected from cattle farms in southern Thailand, and a susceptibility test was carried out using a World Health Organization (WHO) cone bioassay. We recorded the number of knockdowns at 30 and 60 min and mortality at 12 h and 24 h after exposure. The mortality range for S. calcitrans and S. indicus was up to 95.83% and 100%, respectively. Insecticide sensitivity in the pyrethroid phenotypes was demonstrated in the population of flies from the southern provinces of Thailand. Given the stable fly populations in Thailand, not only should insecticides currently used to protect livestock be continued, but novel pest management methods should also be introduced, considering additional semiochemical toxicity to improve the effectiveness of stable fly control.The susceptibility to six pyrethroid insecticides (permethrin, deltamethrin, alpha-cypermethrin, cypermethrin, lambda-cyhalothrin, and bifenthrin), each at the recommended concentration, was evaluated for two stable fly species—Stomoxys calcitrans (Linnaeus, 1758) and Stomoxys indicus Picard, 1908 (Diptera: Muscidae)—through tarsal contact using a World Health Organization (WHO) cone bioassay procedure. The field populations of S. calcitrans were collected from the Songkhla and Phattalung provinces, while S. indicus were collected from the Phattalung and Satun provinces in Thailand. The stable flies were exposed to insecticide-treated filter paper for 30 min, and their knockdown counts at 30 min and 60 min and mortality counts at 12 h and 24 h were recorded. The S. calcitrans and S. indicus Songkhla and Phattalung populations were moderately susceptible to pyrethroids, as indicated by the 24 h mortality. Nonetheless, the Satun population of S. indicus was completely susceptible to permethrin, with 100% mortality, and showed the lowest susceptibility to deltamethrin and bifenthrin. The results indicate the generally low susceptibility of stable flies to pyrethroids in the southern provinces of Thailand.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions and covid-19 burden in the United States: retrospective, observational cohort study

ObjectiveTo evaluate the adoption and discontinuation of four broadly used non-pharmaceutical interventions on shifts in the covid-19 burden among US states.DesignRetrospective, observational cohort study.SettingUS state data on covid-19 between 19...

What can be impact of civil authorities’ faulty mortality registration on COVID-19 mortality count in the state of Bihar, India- Evidence from NFHS (National Family Health Survey -5)

Several local / global / national / international agencies have been estimating the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on mortality count in different regions. On 30 January 2020 the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). Death toll was only 171 on 30-01-2020 and by 31 -12- 2020, this figure increased to 1 813 188. The estimates of global deaths attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 as published by WHO is at least 3 million, which is 1.2 million more than officially reported. Objective of this research study is to find out number of deaths in the household in the three years preceding the survey registered with the civil authorities’ with another objective of this research study is to estimate the excess mortality due to COVID-19 in a simple way to be understood by most of the readers. The total sample size was 35,834 households, 42,483 women of age 15-49 (including 6,350 women interviewed in PSUs in the state module), and 4,897 men of age 15-54 for the state of Bihar. This sample size was based on the size needed to produce reliable indicator estimates for each district. Household questionnaire regarding number of deaths in the household in the three years preceding the survey were collected and utilized to produce information in 19 languages using CAPI (Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing). This cross sectional survey study revealed that only 37.1 percent of deaths of households members due to any cause were registered with the civil authorities in the three years preceding the survey, of which 28 percent of deaths are at age 0-4, 45 percent of deaths occurred at age 25-34, and 41 percent of deaths occurred at age 35 and above (see table-1 and 2 for more details).

Spatial and space-time clusters of suicides in the contiguous USA (2000–2019)

The present study investigates the spatiotemporal variations in suicide mortality and tests associations between several covariates and suicides for the years 20002019 in the contiguous USA. The epidemiological disease surveillance software was used to identify spatiotemporal variations in suicide mortality rates and to test for significant spatial and space-time clusters with elevated relative suicide risk. The analysis was done with age-adjusted suicide mortality counts data from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) with International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 codes. Specifically, data with codes ICD-10 codes X60-X84.9 and Y87.0, plus ICD-10 113 codes from the CDC, was used. Fourteen significant spatial clusters and five significant space-time clusters of suicide in the contiguous USA were found, including nine significant bivariate spatial clusters of suicide deaths and opioid deaths. Based on these data, there exist significant and non-random suicide mortality clusters after adjusting for multiple covariates or risk factors. The covariates studied provide evidence to develop a better understanding of possible associations in geographical areas where the suicide mortality rates are higher than expected. In addition, there is a significant association between several of the studied risk factors and suicide mortality. While most suicide clusters are also opioid clusters, there exist some clusters with high opioid deaths that are not suicide clusters. These results have the potential to provide a scientific framework that is based on surveillance, allowing health agencies to intervene and reduce elevated rates of suicides in selected counties in the U.S. The study is limited due to the resolution of the data at the county level, and some covariate data was unavailable for the entire period of the study.

Economic burden of maternal mortality in the USA, 2018-2020.

Aim: To evaluate the economic burden of age- and race/ethnicity-based US maternal mortality disparities. Economic burden is estimated by years of potential life lost (YPLL) and value of statistical life (VSL). Methods: Maternal mortality counts (2018-2020) were obtained from the CDC Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research database. Life-expectancy data were obtained from the Social Security actuarial tables. YPLL and VSL were calculated and stratified by age (classified as under 25, 25-39, and 40 and over) and race/ethnicity (classified as Hispanic, non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black). Results: Economic measures associated with maternal mortality increased by an estimated 30%, from a YPLL of 32,824 and VSL of US$7.9 billion in 2018 to a YPLL of 43,131 and VSL of US$10.4 billion in 2020. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that age, race and ethnicity are major drivers of the US maternal mortality economic burden.

Environmental variable importance for under-five mortality in Malaysia: A random forest approach

BackgroundEnvironmental factors have been associated with adverse health effects in epidemiological studies. The main exposure variable is usually determined via prior knowledge or statistical methods. It may be challenging when evidence is scarce to support prior knowledge, or to address collinearity issues using statistical methods. This study aimed to investigate the importance level of environmental variables for the under-five mortality in Malaysia via random forest approach. MethodWe applied a conditional permutation importance via a random forest (CPI-RF) approach to evaluate the relative importance of the weather- and air pollution-related environmental factors on daily under-five mortality in Malaysia. This study spanned from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2016. In data preparation, deviation mortality counts were derived through a generalized additive model, adjusting for long-term trend and seasonality. Analyses were conducted considering mortality causes (all-cause, natural-cause, or external-cause) and data structures (continuous, categorical, or all types [i.e., include all variables of continuous type and all variables of categorical type]). The main analysis comprised of two stages. In Stage 1, Boruta selection was applied for preliminary screening to remove highly unimportant variables. In Stage 2, the retained variables from Boruta were used in the CPI-RF analysis. The final importance value was obtained as an average value from a 10-fold cross-validation. ResultSome heat-related variables (maximum temperature, heat wave), temperature variability, and haze-related variables (PM10, PM10-derived haze index, PM10- and fire-derived haze index, fire hotspot) were among the prominent variables associated with under-five mortality in Malaysia. The important variables were consistent for all- and natural-cause mortality and sensitivity analyses. However, different most important variables were observed between natural- and external-cause under-five mortality. ConclusionHeat-related variables, temperature variability, and haze-related variables were consistently prominent for all- and natural-cause under-five mortalities, but not for external-cause.

Effect modification of consecutive high concentration days on the association between fine particulate matter and mortality: a multi-city study in Korea.

Although there is substantial evidence for the short-term effect of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) on daily mortality, few epidemiological studies have explored the effect of prolonged continuous exposure to high concentrations of PM2.5. This study investigated how the magnitude of the mortality effect of PM2.5 exposure is modified by persistent exposure to high PM2.5 concentrations. We analyzed data on the daily mortality count, simulated daily PM2.5 level, mean daily temperature, and relative humidity level from 7 metropolitan cities from 2006 to 2019. Generalized additive models (GAMs) with quasi-Poisson distribution and random-effects meta-analyses were used to pool city-specific effects. To investigate the effect modification of continuous exposure to prolonged high concentrations, we applied categorical consecutive-day variables to the GAMs as effect modification terms for PM2.5. The mortality risk increased by 0.33% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.16 to 0.50), 0.47% (95% CI, -0.09 to 1.04), and 0.26% (95% CI, -0.08 to 0.60) for all-cause, respiratory, and cardiovascular diseases, respectively, with a 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 concentration. The risk of all-cause mortality per 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 on the first and fourth consecutive days significantly increased by 0.63% (95% CI, 0.20 to 1.06) and 0.36% (95% CI, 0.01 to 0.70), respectively. We found increased risks of all-cause, respiratory, and cardiovascular mortality related to daily PM2.5 exposure on the day when exposure to high PM2.5 concentrations began and when exposure persisted for more than 4 days with concentrations of ≥35 μg/m3. Persistently high PM2.5 exposure had a stronger effect on seniors.

Correlation between country-level numbers of COVID-19 cases and mortalities, and country-level characteristics: A global study.

Background: Not much is known about correlations between country-level characteristics and country-level numbers of COVID-19 cases and mortalities. Methods: Using data from the World Health Organization and other international organisations, we summarised country-level COVID-19 case and mortality counts per 100,000 population, and COVID-19 case fatality rate from January 2020 to August 2021. We conducted adjusted linear regression analysis to assess relationships between these counts/rate and certain country-level characteristics. We reported adjusted regression coefficients, β and associated 95% confidence intervals. Results: There was a positive correlation between the number of cases and country-level male/female ratio, and positive correlations between the numbers of cases and mortalities and country-level proportion of 60+-year-olds, universal health coverage index of service coverage (UHC) and tourism. Country economic status correlated negatively with the numbers of cases and mortalities. COVID-19 case fatality rate was highest in Peru, South American region (9.2%), and lowest in Singapore, Western Pacific region (0.1%). A negative correlation was observed between case fatality rate and country-level male/female ratio, population density and economic status. These observations remained mostly among mid-/low-income countries, particularly a positive correlation between the number of cases and male/female ratio and proportion of 60+-year-olds. Conclusions: Various country-level characteristics such as male/female ratio, proportion of older adults, country economic status, UHC and tourism appear to be correlated with the country-level number of COVID-19 cases and/or mortalities. Consideration of these characteristics may be necessary when designing country-level COVID-19 epidemiological studies and in comparing COVID-19 data between countries.

Prevalence of pseudophakia: U.S. population-based study.

To determine the current prevalence and trends of pseudophakia in a well-defined U.S. population, calculating values for Olmsted County, Minnesota, from 1988 through 2018. Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota. Population-based cohort study. Rochester Epidemiology Project (REP) databases were used to identify all cases of pseudophakia in Olmsted County, Minnesota, between January 1, 1988, and December 31, 2018. Age- and sex-specific prevalence rates were calculated in 1988, 1998, 2008, and 2018 using REP census population estimates and mortality counts. Poisson regression analysis was used to assess changes in prevalence over time. Mortality rates were estimated by Kaplan-Meier analysis. In 2018, 10 024 county residents were pseudophakic in at least 1 eye, for a total population prevalence of 6.5%. The prevalence increased 67% in the last 10 years and 590% in the last 30 years (P < .001). By 2018, 51% of residents aged 75 years and 88% of residents aged 85 years and older were pseudophakic in at least 1 eye, 53% of residents with pseudophakia aged 65 years and older were bilaterally pseudophakic, and 29% of residents with pseudophakia had lived with pseudophakia for more than 10 years. The prevalence was higher among women than men and increased with age (P < .001). Overall, pseudophakia had a lower all-cause mortality compared with the general Minnesota population (P < .001). In 2018, most residents aged 75 years and older were pseudophakic in at least 1 eye. These numbers underscore the changing visual status of older adults and the large number of adults who benefit from cataract surgery.

LABORATORY EVALUATION OF ESSENTIAL OIL CONSTITUENTS AGAINST THE TERMITES, ACISTROTERMES LATINOTUS

In continuous search for alternative insecticides to combat potential problem of termite infestation in household and tree plantations; the bioactivity of the essential oils extracted by hydro distillation of leaves of Ocimum gratissimum, Gongronema latifolium and Piper guineensis was assessed under laboratory conditions at 20+30C, 70-75% R.H. and 12: 12h light: dark regimes for its biological activity against workers of the termites with Chlorpyrifos insecticide as a standard check. The botanicals were extracted using a Soxhlet extractor and serially diluted at different concentrations of 0.125%, 0.25% and 0.50% including 0% as the control. The essential oils at 0.25ml of the different concentrations of the botanicals and insecticide were applied using a syringe on twelve adult workers of termites in each Petri dishes. Mortality count or number of the termites knocked down after thirty, sixty, ninety and one hundred and twenty minutes respectively during the trial was recorded and expressed in percentages. The individual components of the essential oil were identified through GC, GC-MS and GC-Co injection with authentic standards. The identity of a total of 17 constituent compounds of the essential oil of each plant was confirmed and their relative proportion determined. The major compounds identified among the botanicals and the insecticide in their relative proportion included Alpha Pinene, Quinoline, 3- methyl and Benzylisoquinoline. Only Alpha Pinene was found in O. gratissimum and Chlorpyrifos insecticide, while Quinoline, 3 methyl and Benzylisoquinoline were recorded in the botanicals including the insecticide. The major components were found to be largely responsible for the toxic action of its essential oil against the termites. The highest dosage of the essential oils of the plant materials tested induced the highest mortality in the termites after 120 minutes. Within `120 minutes, O. gratissimum (55%) P. guineensis oil (52%) was significantly more effective than G. latifolium (47%) at the bioactive concentration of 0.25mg/L while Chlorpyrifos insecticide recorded the highest termite mortality. The termite mortality increased gradually with the increase in essential oil concentrations and with the time of exposure. There is need to diversify the use of botanicals especially in the agricultural pest management sector

Projected estimates of cancer in Canada in 2022.

Background:Regular cancer surveillance is crucial for understanding where progress is being made and where more must be done. We sought to provide an overview of the expected burden of cancer in Canada in 2022.Methods:We obtained data on new cancer incidence from the National Cancer Incidence Reporting System (1984–1991) and Canadian Cancer Registry (1992–2018). Mortality data (1984–2019) were obtained from the Canadian Vital Statistics — Death Database. We projected cancer incidence and mortality counts and rates to 2022 for 22 cancer types by sex and province or territory. Rates were age standardized to the 2011 Canadian standard population.Results:An estimated 233 900 new cancer cases and 85 100 cancer deaths are expected in Canada in 2022. We expect the most commonly diagnosed cancers to be lung overall (30 000), breast in females (28 600) and prostate in males (24 600). We also expect lung cancer to be the leading cause of cancer death, accounting for 24.3% of all cancer deaths, followed by colorectal (11.0%), pancreatic (6.7%) and breast cancers (6.5%). Incidence and mortality rates are generally expected to be higher in the eastern provinces of Canada than the western provinces.Interpretation:Although overall cancer rates are declining, the number of cases and deaths continues to climb, owing to population growth and the aging population. The projected high burden of lung cancer indicates a need for increased tobacco control and improvements in early detection and treatment. Success in breast and colorectal cancer screening and treatment likely account for the continued decline in their burden. The limited progress in early detection and new treatments for pancreatic cancer explains why it is expected to be the third leading cause of cancer death in Canada.

Spatiotemporal relationship between temperature and non-accidental mortality: Assessing effect modification by socioeconomic status

BackgroundMost published studies have assessed the overall health impact of temperature by using one-station or multiple-station averaged meteorological and air quality data. Concern has arisen about whether the temperature health impact is homogeneous across the whole territory geographically, since green space and socioeconomic factors may modify the impact. ObjectiveThis study aims at investigating how small-area mortality is modified by local temperature and other meteorological, air quality, green space, and socioeconomic factors of small geographic units in a subtropical urban setting. MethodsData on meteorological, air pollutants, and non-accidental mortality count in Hong Kong during 2006–2016 were obtained. Combined with green space and socioeconomic data, spatiotemporal analysis using Generalized Additive Mixed Models was conducted to examine the temperature-mortality relationship, adjusted for seasonality, long-term trend, other meteorological factors, pollutants, socioeconomic characteristics and green space. ResultsSocioeconomic status was found to modify the temporal temperature-mortality relationship. A J-shape association was identified for most areas in Hong Kong, where a sharp increase of mortality was observed when daily minimum temperature dropped lower than the turning point. However, for people living in the most affluent areas, after the initial increase there was a decrease of mortality for colder days. Besides, when comparing the two spatiotemporal models (i.e. using nearby or central temperature monitoring station), while leaving the other predictors unchanged, this study showed that there was little difference in the overall model performances. ConclusionThis study indicated that the daily fluctuation of mortality was associated with daily temperature, while the spatial variation of mortality within this city could be explained by the geographical distribution of green space and socioeconomic factors. Since people living in affluent areas were found to be more tolerant of cold temperatures, it would be more efficient to tailor cold temperature health education and warning information for socioeconomically deprived communities.

Long-Term Changes in Four Populations of the Spiny Toad, Bufo spinosus, in Western France; Data from Road Mortalities

Habitat fragmentation is widely recognized as a contributor to the decline of biodiversity, with amphibians one of the key groups impacted. To understand the effects of habitat fragmentation on amphibian populations requires long-term data sets showing population trends. In this paper, road mortalities were employed as proxies to describe long-term numbers of four populations of the spiny toad Bufo spinosus in western France during a 17-year period. Road mortalities were found during all months in all populations but were most frequent during October, November and December, the main migratory period. Large females were found significantly more frequently during these migration months, forming 45% of the total sample, compared with their presence from January to September (34.4%). The long-term trends were evaluated using regression analysis of the logarithmic (loge) transforms of annual counts as dependent variables against year as the independent variables. All coefficients showed no significant departure from the 0 hypothetical coefficients, indicative of population stability. This was supported by jackknife analysis, which showed good agreement of the pseudo-regression coefficients with the true equations. Stepwise regression of potential climate impacts on toad numbers suggested rainfall levels in October adjusted to 2- and 3-year lags were involved in driving population change. Road mortality counts were also made during 2020 and 2021 when human movement restrictions were in place due to the COVID-19 pandemic. To estimate the potential impact on this disturbance in the methodology, the Poisson distribution was used to estimate potential differences between what would have been expected counts and the observed counts. The results indicate that the observed mortalities were significantly lower than expected in all four populations.

Excess mortality in Israel associated with COVID-19 in 2020-2021 by age group and with estimates based on daily mortality patterns in 2000-2019.

BackgroundWe aimed to build a basic daily mortality curve in Israel based on 20-year data accounting for long-term and annual trends, influenza-like illness (ILI) and climate factors among others, and to use the basic curve to estimate excess mortality during 65 weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020–2021 stratified by age groups.MethodsUsing daily mortality counts for the period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2019, weekly ILI counts, daily climate and yearly population sizes, we fitted a quasi-Poisson model that included other temporal covariates (a smooth yearly trend, season, day of week) to define a basic mortality curve. Excess mortality was calculated as the difference between the observed and expected deaths on a weekly and periodic level. Analyses were stratified by age group.ResultsBetween 23 March 2020 and 28 March 2021, a total of 51 361 deaths were reported in Israel, which was 12% higher than the expected number for the same period (expected 45 756 deaths; 95% prediction interval, 45 325–46 188; excess deaths, 5605). In the same period, the number of COVID-19 deaths was 6135 (12% of all observed deaths), 9.5% larger than the estimated excess mortality. Stratification by age group yielded a heterogeneous age-dependent pattern. Whereas in ages 90+ years (11% excess), 100% of excess mortality was attributed to COVID-19, in ages 70–79 years there was a greater excess (21%) with only 82% attributed to COVID-19. In ages 60–69 and 20–59 years, excess mortality was 14% and 10%, respectively, and the number of COVID-19 deaths was higher than the excess mortality. In ages 0–19 years, we found 19% fewer deaths than expected.ConclusionThe findings of an age-dependent pattern of excess mortality may be related to indirect pathways in mortality risk, specifically in ages <80 years, and to the implementation of the lockdown policies, specifically in ages 0–19 years with lower deaths than expected.

Pest status of termites on different Eucalyptus species in Afaka, Nigeria

Eucalyptus is one of the exotic tree species used for fuel wood and utility pole purposes in Northern Nigeria. The early stages of its plantation establishment face the challenges of insect attack, especially the subterranean termites. The pest status of termites on Eucalyptus tree species is a prerequisite for effective management strategies. This study assessed the pest status of termites on four Eucalyptus tree species: Eucalyptus camaldulensis, Eucalyptus citriodora, Eucalyptus cloeziana and Eucalyptus tereticornis in Afaka, Kaduna State, Nigeria. The four Eucalyptus species were planted in the field in a Randomized Complete Block Design and replicated three times. Seedling mortality counts were taken at 1, 2, 3, 6 and 12 months after transplanting. Mortality data were subjected ANOVA and significant means were separated using Tukey’s HSD (p = 0.05). The results showed that lower significant seedling mortality (9.66 ± 5.3%) was observed in E. camaldulensis at 1 month after transplanting. Seedling mortalities within a period of 1 – 12 months after transplanting ranged from 9.66±5.43 – 74.65±8.97%, 34.29±4.80 - 66.87±1.72%, 27.32±2.08 - 61.24±5.85% and 18.01±3.05 - 63.61±2.49% in E. camaldulensis, E. citriodora, E. cloeziana and E. tereticornis, respectively. It is therefore concluded from this study that the first year of Eucalyptus plantation establishment is critical for termite infestation and requires a prompt decision to embark on termite management strategies.

Process-based diagnostics of extreme pollution trail using numerical modelling during fatal second COVID-19 wave in the Indian capital

The world's worst outbreak, the second COVID-19 wave, not only unleashed unprecedented devastation of human life, but also made an impact of lockdown in the Indian capital, New Delhi, in particulate matter (PM: PM2.5 and PM10) virtually ineffective during April to May 2021. The air quality remained not only unabated but also was marred by some unusual extreme pollution events. SAFAR-framework model simulations with different sensitivity experiments were conducted using the newly developed lockdown emission inventory to understand various processes responsible for these anomalies in PM. Model results well captured the magnitude and variations of the observed PM before and after the lockdown but significantly underestimated their levels in the initial period of lockdown followed by the first high pollution event when the mortality counts were at their peak (∼400 deaths/day). It is believed that an unaccounted emission source was playing a leading role after balancing off the impact of curtailed lockdown emissions. The model suggests that the unprecedented surge in PM10 (690 μg/m3) on May 23, 2021, though Delhi was still under lockdown, was associated with large-scale dust transport originating from the north west part of India combined with the thunderstorm. The rainfall and local dust lifting played decisive roles in other unusual events. Obtained results and the proposed interpretation are likely to enhance our understanding and envisaged to help policymakers to frame suitable strategies in such kinds of emergencies in the future.

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on mortality count at the Emergency Ward of Hospitals in India: A Cross-sectional study from January 2019 to May 2021

Background: A cute treatment in emergency case management is required for survival and stabilization of critical patients, followed by shifting the patients to the relevant department for further care. However, for the seriously ill critical patients struggling for survival, the care is provided by the Emergency Department/Ward (ED) of the hospital as the situation is not enough to enable transfer because death may occur while transferring and treatment in such situations are given at emergency ward/department. This aspect of emergency management care is often overlooked by policy makers and government which is really serious regarding who dies in the ED. Objective: The aim of this cross sectional research study was to determine impact of COVID-19 pandemic era on mortality count at the emergency ward of public-private-rural-urban hospitals in India across 36 states and union territories. The objective was fulfilled by collecting, observing, analyzing total mortality occurring at the emergency ward of public-private-rural-urban hospitals in India from 1st January 2019 to 31st May 2021(linear regression is not done for forecasting due to two factors, first the COVID-19 situation and mortality is changing as well as largely associated with virulence of strain and to keep data from accredited source intact on real grounds) of emergency department admissions of public and private health facilities. The objective was to find out if there is increase or decrease in mortality of emergency department admissions during the COVID-19 pandemic era by comparing mean mortality of ED per month of public, private, rural, urban health facilities before the pandemic from 1st and 2nd year of pandemic i.e. 2020 and 2021 respectively. Methods: This research study is a cross sectional retrospective mixed qualitative and quantitative analysis of the mortality occurring at the emergency department of public and private, rural, urban hospitals from 1st January 2019 to May31st 2021 with aim to find out impact of COVID-19 pandemic era on mortality at ED. Electronic patient records from HMIS (health management information system) of MoHFW (ministry of health and family welfare) , Government of India is collected, observed, analysed, compared for all patients deaths occurring at Emergency Department (ED) of public and private, rural, urban health facilities (n = 452102) during the study period from 1st January 2019 to 31st May 2021. Results: The study results found that largest total number of death occurred in the ED during may 2021 whereas the least number of deaths occurred in February 2019 (limitation is actual data availability is up to May 2021 from accredited sources and linear regression is avoided to keep study based on real data only, hence forecast for adjustment was avoided). During the first year of the pandemic, mean mortality per month (Jan2020-Dec2020) in the emergency department (ED) of rural, urban, public and private hospitals in India was 16067per month whereas before the pandemic it was 12542 per month while during second year of pandemic i.e. 2021 the mean mortality increased to 21758 per month (up to May 2021).

Use of Herb Combination (Jamu Atoke) Before Mating to Improve Rat Pup Health

Mortality and health disturbances in children often correlate with maternal health and fertility. Avocado, mung bean sprouts, and holy basil have been traditionally used to improve maternal health, before and during pregnancy. This study was aimed to assess the efficacy of herbal combination of avocado, mung bean sprouts, and holy basil (Jamu ATOKE) in optimizing reproductive health. Eighteen female Sprague Dawley rats (9–10 weeks old, BW: 180–250 g) were randomly divided into 3 treatment groups (n=6 rats for each group) of control, group I and II. ATOKE were added into rats drinking water and consumed for 30 days before pregnancy. After the rats were pregnant and gave birth, pup per parent ratio, pup mortality, and pup health performance (body weight gain, feed and drink consumption, motor activity, pup speed in finding light and feed, red blood cell (RBC) count, white blood cell (WBC) count and differential, SGPT, SGOT, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), creatinine, and proinflammatory mediators (TNF-α and IL-6) were analyzed. Pups born to in group I had a generally better health performance compared to the control group. There was a 100% mortality in the litter of group II due to the excessive aggressive behavior of the dams as a sign of toxicity. Administration of 2.5% Jamu ATOKE showed the best effects on the health and intelligence of the rat pup.