Monthly Unemployment Rate Research Articles

Forecasting unemployment

Results are reported of a forecasting competition between linear autoregressive, GARCH, threshold autoregressive and neural network models of the UK monthly unemployment rate series. Evidence is uncovered suggesting the existence of nonlinearities in the series.

The relationship between public mental health admission rates, institutional constraints, and unemployment

Aggregate-level economic decline has been significantly related to utilization rates of public mental health services. Concomitant time-series methods related the monthly unemployment rate of the City of St. Louis to the institutional supply of public mental health services. Supply factors and unemployment were then related to monthly inpatient and outpatient group admission rates from January, 1976 through August, 1983. The results suggested a selection bias during bed shortages favoring first admissions over readmissions. Unemployment was found to be positively related to total first admissions, employed first admissions, and male first admissions.