Monthly Time Scales Research Articles

Spatiotemporal climate variability and trends in the Upper Gelana Watershed, northeastern highlands of Ethiopia

The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of CHIRPS and TAMSAT satellite rainfall data over the Upper Gelana watershed, where gauged meteorological data to understand the nature of the climate are scarce. In addition, variability and trends in rainfall and temperature were examined from 1983 to 2021. To evaluate satellite rainfall, categorical and continuous validation statistics were used. Trends were analyzed using Mann-Kendall, Sen's Slope estimator, and innovative trend analysis (ITA) methods. The study also utilized time-series geostatistical analysis techniques. The validation statistics show that TAMSAT performs better on the daily timescale, while the two products have comparable performance on the monthly timescale. TAMSAT was chosen for rainfall analysis because of its higher resolution and performance. The results reveal high inter-annual spatiotemporal variability and strong irregularities in monthly rainfall. The Mann-Kendall test indicates statistically significant positive trends in kiremt and annual rainfall, but belg rainfall exhibits an insignificant negative trend. In the kiremt season, we found a 96.1, 101.6, and 104.8 mm decadal rate of rainfall increment in the lower weina dega (LWD), upper weina dega (UWD), and dega agroecological zones, respectively. In contrast, belg season rainfall declined by 16.4, 16.2, and 14.0 mm per decade in the LWD, UWD, and dega agroecology zones, respectively. The pixel-wise trend analysis also revealed trends and magnitudes of monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall that vary across the study area. In both LWD and UWD annual minimum and maximum temperatures, respectively, showed significant decreasing and increasing trends, but in dega agroecology the trends were insignificant. The findings of rainfall and temperature trends using the ITA method demonstrated its ability to discover some hidden trends that were not detected by the MK test.

Development and Field Application of a Diffusive Gradients in Thin-Films Passive Sampler for Monitoring Three Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon Derivatives and One Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon in Waters

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) derivatives are widely present in the environment, and some are more hazardous than their parent PAHs. However, compared to PAHs, PAH derivatives are less studied due to challenges in monitoring as a result of their low concentrations in environmental matrixes. Here, we developed a new passive sampler based on diffusive gradients in thin films (DGT) to monitor PAH derivatives and PAHs in waters. In the laboratory study, the XAD18-DGT device exhibited high adsorption rates and was demonstrated to be suitable for deployment in environmental waters on the timescale of months. The diffusion coefficients, D, were 5.30 × 10−6 cm2 s−1, 4.51 × 10−6 cm2 s−1, 4.03 × 10−6 cm2 s−1 and 3.34 × 10−6 cm2 s−1 for 9-fluorenone (9-FL), 1-chloroanthraquinone (1-CLAQ), 9-nitroanthracene (9-NA) and phenanthrene (Phe), respectively, at 25 °C. The DGT device’s performance was independent of pH, ionic strength, deployment time and storage time, indicating it can be widely used in natural waters. In the field study, the target pollutant concentrations measured by the DGT are in good accordance with those determined via grab sampling. Then, the DGT devices were utilized to quantify PAH derivatives and PAHs in several rivers in Hefei, China. This work demonstrates the feasibility of using the DGT technique to detect trace PAH derivatives and PAHs in waters.

On the links between sea level and temperature variations in the Chesapeake Bay and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)

AbstractRecent studies found that on long time scales there are often unexplained opposite trends in sea level variability between the upper and lower Chesapeake Bay (CB). Therefore, daily sea level and temperature records were analyzed in two locations, Norfolk in the southern CB and Baltimore in the northern CB; surface currents from Coastal Ocean Dynamics Application Radar (CODAR) near the mouth of CB were also analyzed to examine connections between the CB and the Atlantic Ocean. The observations in the bay were compared with daily Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) observations during 2005–2021. Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) analysis was used to show that variations of sea level and temperature in the upper and lower CB are positively correlated with each other for short time scales of months to few years, but anticorrelated on low frequency modes representing decadal variability and long-term nonlinear trends. The long-term CB modes seem to be linked with AMOC variability through variations in the Gulf Stream and the wind-driven Ekman transports over the North Atlantic Ocean. AMOC variability correlates more strongly with variability in the southern CB near the mouth of the bay, where surface currents indicate potential links with AMOC variability. For example, when AMOC and the Gulf Stream were especially weak during 2009–2010, sea level in the southern bay was abnormally high, temperatures were colder than normal and outflow through the mouth of CB was especially high. Sea level in the upper bay responded to this change only 1–2 years later, which partly explains phase differences within the bay. A persistent trend of 0.22 cm/s per year of increased outflow from the CB, may be a sign of a climate-related trend associated with combination of weakening AMOC and increased precipitation and river discharge into the CB.

Improved capabilities of global ocean reanalyses for analysing sea level variability near the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Coastal U.S.

Realistic representation of monthly sea level anomalies in coastal regions has been a challenge for global ocean reanalyses. This is especially the case in coastal regions where sea levels are influenced by western boundary currents such as near the U.S. Atlantic Coast and the Gulf of Mexico. For these regions, most ocean reanalyses compare poorly to observations. Problems in reanalyses include errors in data assimilation and horizontal resolutions that are too coarse to simulate energetic currents like the Gulf Stream and Loop Current System. However, model capabilities are advancing with improved data assimilation and higher resolution. Here, we show that some current-generation ocean reanalyses produce monthly sea level anomalies with improved skill when compared to satellite altimetry observations of sea surface heights. Using tide gauge observations for coastal verification, we find the highest skill associated with the GLORYS12 and HYCOM ocean reanalyses. Both systems assimilate altimetry observations and have eddy-resolving horizontal resolutions (1/12°). We found less skill in three other ocean reanalyses (ACCESS-S2, ORAS5, and ORAP6) with coarser, though still eddy-permitting, resolutions (1/4°). The operational reanalysis from ECMWF (ORAS5) and their pilot reanalysis (ORAP6) provide an interesting comparison because the latter assimilates altimetry globally and with more weight, as well as assimilating ocean observations over continental shelves. We find these attributes associated with improved skill near many tide gauges. We also assessed an older reanalysis (CFSR), which has the lowest skill likely due to its lower resolution (1/2°) and lack of altimetry assimilation. ACCESS-S2 likewise does not assimilate altimetry, although its skill is much better than CFSR and only somewhat lower than ORAS5. Since coastal flooding is influenced by sea level anomalies, the recent development of skilful ocean reanalyses on monthly timescales may be useful for better understanding the physical processes associated with flood risks.

Towards Improved Satellite Data Utilization in China: Insights from an Integrated Evaluation of GSMaP-GNRT6 in Rainfall Patterns

To improve the utilization of satellite-based data and promote their development, this analysis comprehensively evaluates the performance of GSMaP Near-real-time Gauge-adjusted Rainfall Product version 6 (GSMaP_GNRT6) data in depicting precipitation over China from 2001 to 2020 by comparing four precipitation indices—accumulated precipitation, number of rainy days and rainstorm days, and precipitation maxima—with daily precipitation data from 2419 stations across China on monthly and annual time scales. The results show that the GSMaP-GNRT6 data effectively capture the overall spatial pattern of the four precipitation indices, but biases in the spatial distribution of the number of rainy days from July to September and the precipitation maxima during the wintertime are evident. A general underestimation of GSMaP-GNRT6 data is observed in the average for China. The annual precipitation amount, the number of rainy days and rainstorm days, and the precipitation maxima based on the GSMaP-GNRT6 data are 17.6%, 35.5%, 31.6% and 11.8% below the station observations, respectively. The GSMaP-GNRT6 data better depict the precipitation in eastern China, with the errors almost halved. And obvious overestimation of the number of rainstorm days and precipitation maxima occurs in western China, reaching up to 60%. Regarding the accumulated precipitation, the number of rainstorm days and the precipitation maxima, the GSMaP-GNRT6 data show an almost consistent interannual variation and increasing trends that are consistent with the station observations. However, the magnitude of the increasing trend based on the GSMaP-GNRT6 data is larger, especially at the beginning of the 21st century. Conversely, a considerable discrepancy in the annual variation and an almost opposite trend can be observed in the number of rainy days between the GSMaP-GNRT6 data and the station observations.

The Thousand-Pulsar-Array programme on MeerKAT – XII. Discovery of long-term pulse profile evolution in seven young pulsars

ABSTRACT A number of pulsars are known to have profile evolution on time-scales of months, often correlated with spin-down rate changes. Here, we present the first result from 3 yr of monitoring observations from MeerKAT as part of the Thousand Pulsar Array programme. This programme obtains high-fidelity pulse profiles for ∼ 500 pulsars, which enabled the detection of subtle changes in seven sources not previously known to exhibit long-term profile evolution. A 2D Gaussian convolution is used to highlight correlated emission variability in both the pulse phase and observing epoch direction. Simulations show that for one additional source the observed profile variability is likely to originate from stochastic single-pulse shape variability (jitter). We find that it is common for long-term profile variability to be associated with changes in polarization fractions, but not with polarization position angle (PA) changes. PA changes are expected if emission height changes or precession is responsible for the profile variability. PSR J1741−3927 is the only pulsar in our sample that shows correlated PA variability, and this is associated with orthogonal polarization mode activity. For the six other pulsars limits on possible emission height changes and impact angle changes are derived. These limits are consistent with the small changes in the total intensity profile shape. None of the sources show detectable spin-down variability correlated with the emission changes, which are thought to be driven by magnetospheric current fluctuations. Therefore, the absence of correlated spin-down rate variability allows upper limits to be placed on changes in the magnetospheric charge density.

Climate, water, hydropower, wind speed and wind energy potential resources assessments using weather time series data, downscaled regional circulation models: A case study for Mono River Basin in the Gulf of Guinea region

Hydropower and wind energy are important renewable energies source in Gulf Guinea region, but they are sensitive to climate change, because the changing climate may alter atmospheric and hydrological conditions. In this study, firstly we analyzed the historical hydro-climate data in connection with changes in Mono river of Gulf Guinea region discharge and their associated impacts on hydropower generation and assessed the future hydropower availability in different climate scenarios. Secondly, statistical methods are used to examine past and future wind speed (WS) and wind energy potential. We used historical data (1981–2010) obtained from the National Meteorology Agency in Togo and Benin and a multi-model ensemble for future projections data (2021–2050) of eight selected Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) under scenarios 4.5 and 8.5. We found in the recent past years that the temperature and evaporation increase during dry season, while flows and hydropower generation decreased. The multi-model ensemble used have announced that in general, the decreasing trend of the rainfall and increasing trend of temperature is projected to be higher in RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5, in the near future (2021–2050). Overall, the annual hydropower potential the hydropower will decrease between 8 and 19.3% under the RCP4.5 and 9 and 29% under the RCP8.5 while the monthly hydropower potential is projected to decrease by 4–41% under the RCP4.5 and by 6–47% under the RCP8.5 in the same period. Concerning the wind speed and the potential wind power, the observed results show that both the Weibull and Rayleigh approximations provided a better fit for the wind speed data. The projected of wind speed and wind power density (2021–2050) at an annual timescale is similar to the monthly timescale of wind speed and wind power density at 90 m height. The multi-model ensemble indicate that projected wind speeds (WS) are between 5 and 10 m/s under the RCP4.5 and, between 3 and 12 m/s under the RCP8.5 while wind power density is projected by 15–250 w/m2, and by 13–357 w/m2 under the RCP4.5 and under the RCP8.5, respectively. South and North of Mono basin, have higher WPD and are promising for installing wind turbines for small-scale power generation.

Power Generation Mix Optimization under Auction Mechanism for Carbon Emission Rights

As the international community attaches importance to environmental and climate issues, carbon dioxide emissions in various countries have been subject to constraints and limits. The carbon trading market, as a market tool to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, has gone through a development process from a pilot carbon market to a national carbon market in China. At present, the industries included in the national carbon market are mainly the electric power industry, and the carbon emissions of the electric power industry account for about 40% of the national carbon emissions. According to the construction history of foreign carbon markets, China’s future carbon quota allocation will gradually transition from free allocation to auction allocation, and the auction mechanism will bring a heavy economic burden to the electric power industry, especially the thermal power generation industry. Therefore, this study takes Guangdong Province as an example to optimize the power generation mix with the objective of minimizing the total economic cost after the innovative introduction of the carbon quota auction mechanism, constructs an optimization model of the power generation mix based on the auction ratio by comprehensively applying the system dynamics model and the multi-objective linear programming model, systematically researches the power generation structure under different auction ratios with the time scale of months, and quantitatively evaluates the economic inputs needed to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions. The results of the study show that after comprehensively comparing the total economic cost, renewable energy development, and carbon emissions, it is the most scientific and reasonable to set the auction ratio of carbon allowances at 20%, which achieves the best level of economic and environmental benefits.

Redshifted Iron Emission and Absorption Lines in the Chandra X-Ray Spectrum of Centaurus A

Cen A hosts the closest active galactic nucleus to the Milky Way, which makes it an ideal target for investigating the dynamical processes in the vicinity of accreting supermassive black holes. In this paper, we present 14 Chandra HETGS spectra of the nucleus of Cen A that were observed throughout 2022. We compared them with each other, and contrasted them against the two previous Chandra HETGS spectra from 2001. This enabled an investigation into the spectral changes occurring on timescales of months and 21 years. All Chandra spectra could be well fitted by an absorbed power law with a strong and narrow Fe Kα line, a leaked power-law feature at low energies, and Si and S Kα lines that could not be associated with the central engine. The flux of the continuum varied by a factor of 2.74 ± 0.05 over the course of the observations, whereas the Fe line only varied by 18.8% ± 8.8%. The photon index increased over 21 years, and the hydrogen column density varied significantly within a few months as well. The Fe Kα line was found at a lower energy than expected from the Cen A redshift, amounting to an excess velocity of 326−94+84kms−1 relative to Cen A. We investigated warped accretion disks, bulk motion, and outflows as possible explanations of this shift. The spectra also featured ionized absorption lines from Fe xxv and Fe xxvi, describing a variable inflow.

Evaluation of TIEGCM based on GOCE neutral density

The Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamic General Circulation Model (TIEGCM), as one of the most advanced physical models of the Earth’s thermosphere and ionosphere, is not only widely used in scientific research, but also has essential reference value in aerospace operations. In this study, we use Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) neutral density to evaluate the accuracy of the TIEGCM. The assessment is performed on both time and spatial scales. The time scales are conducted annually, monthly, and daily, while the spatial scales are carried out in terms of altitude, latitude, and local time. On the time scales, the performance of the TIEGCM on the monthly time scale is better than that on the annual time scale. Also, the performance on the daily time scale is better than that on the monthly time scale. The relative deviation shows a significant seasonal variation, that is, larger in winter and summer and smaller in spring and autumn. In addition, the relative deviation shows a negative correlation with F10.7 and Ap. On the spatial scale, with the increase in altitude, the average relative deviation of the model becomes larger in general. The relative deviation is usually larger at middle latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere and high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. Finally, on the scale of local time, the relative deviation changes more dramatically in local morning than at dusk.

Examining the outstanding Euro-Mediterranean drought of 2021–2022 and its historical context

The Euro-Mediterranean region experienced a remarkable drought during the hydrological year 2021/22. Substantial and widespread impacts on water supply systems, agricultural crops, and the production of hydroelectric power were observed. This assessment characterises the drought from a long-term perspective using a multi-index approach and analyses the associated atmospheric circulation at the annual and monthly time scales. The main dynamical forcing of the drought was the unusual recurrence of high-pressure systems over western Europe, at least partly due to an anomalous southward shift in blocking activity and a remarkable occurrence of low-latitude blocks. This led to record-breaking positive geopotential height anomalies over western Europe and a poleward displacement of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet. Although most of the region was affected by mild drought conditions, the 2021/22 event was not unprecedented in terms of precipitation deficits since other periods of the 20th century (e.g., in the 1920s, 1940s and 1970s) displayed moderate and severe drought conditions over larger areas. However, the 2021/22 drought has been the most intense since at least 1891 because of high atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) values associated with extreme temperatures, especially during the summer of 2022. This enhanced AED also contributed to depleting soil moisture and reducing runoff generation, leading to unprecedented deficits since at least 1965. Finally, we find important differences in the 2021/22 event as compared to other major historical droughts over the Euro-Mediterranean region. In particular, the contrasting effect of AED evidences its increasing role over the last decades and warns about the current risk of experiencing unprecedented droughts.

Responses of Coastal Wetlands to Rising Sea-Level Revisited: The Importance of Organic Production

A network of 15 Surface Elevation Tables (SETs) at North Inlet estuary, South Carolina, has been monitored on annual or monthly time scales beginning from 1990 to 1996 and continuing through 2022. Of 73 time series in control plots, 12 had elevation gains equal to or exceeding the local rate of sea-level rise (SLR, 0.34 cm/year). Rising marsh elevation in North Inlet is dominated by organic production and, we hypothesize, is proportional to net ecosystem production. The rate of elevation gain was 0.47 cm/year in plots experimentally fertilized for 10 years with N&P compared to nearby control plots that have gained 0.1 cm/year in 26 years. The excess gains and losses of elevation in fertilized plots were accounted for by changes in belowground biomass and turnover. This is supported by bioassay experiments in marsh organs where at age 2 the belowground biomass of fertilized S. alterniflora plants was increasing by 1,994 g m−2 year−1, which added a growth premium of 2.4 cm/year to elevation gain. This was contrasted with the net belowground growth of 746 g m−2 year−1 in controls, which can add 0.89 cm/year to elevation. Root biomass density was greater in the fertilized bioassay treatments than in controls, plateauing at about 1,374 g m−2 and 472 g m−2, respectively. Growth of belowground biomass was dominated by rhizomes, which grew to 3,648 g m−2 in the fertilized treatments after 3 years and 1,439 g m−2 in the control treatments after 5 years. Depositional wetlands are limited by an exogenous supply of mineral sediment, whereas marshes like North Inlet could be classified as autonomous because they depend on in situ organic production to maintain elevation. Autonomous wetlands are more vulnerable to SLR because their elevation gains are constrained ultimately by photosynthetic efficiency.

Initial Results of our Spectro-photometric Monitoring of XZ Tau

We present here initial results of our spectro-photometric monitoring of XZ Tau. During our monitoring period, XZ Tau exhibited several episodes of brightness variations in timescales of months at optical wavelengths in contrast to the mid-infrared wavelengths. The color evolution of XZ Tau during this period suggests that the brightness variations are driven by changes in accretion from the disc. The mid-infrared light curve shows an overall decline in brightness by ∼ 0.5 and 0.7 magnitude respectively in WISE W1 (3.4 μm) and W2 (4.6 μm) bands. The emission profile of the hydrogen recombination lines along with that of Ca II IRT lines points towards magnetospheric accretion of XZ Tau. We have detected P Cygni profile in Hβ indicating of out-flowing winds from regions close to accretion. Forbidden transitions of oxygen are also detected, likely indicating jets originating around the central pre-main sequence star.

Tidal Disruption Events through the Lens of the Cooling Envelope Model

The cooling envelope model for tidal disruption events (TDEs) postulates that while the stellar debris streams rapidly dissipate their bulk kinetic energy (“circularize”), this does not necessarily imply rapid feeding of the supermassive black hole (SMBH). The bound material instead forms a large pressure-supported envelope that powers optical/UV emission as it undergoes gradual Kelvin–Helmholtz contraction. We present results interpreting a sample of 15 optical TDEs within the cooling envelope model in order to constrain the SMBH mass M BH, stellar mass M ⋆, and orbital penetration factor β. The distributions of inferred properties from our sample broadly follow the theoretical expectations of loss-cone analysis assuming a standard stellar initial mass function. However, we find a deficit of events with M BH ≲ 5 × 105 and M ⋆ ≲ 0.5 M ⊙, which could result in part from the reduced detectability of TDEs with these properties. Our model fits also illustrate the predicted long delay between the optical light-curve peak and when the SMBH accretion rate reaches its maximum. The latter occurs only once the envelope contracts to the circularization radius on a timescale of months to years, consistent with delayed-rising X-ray and nonthermal radio flares seen in a growing number of TDEs.

Estuarine Exchange Flow in the Salish Sea

AbstractThe Salish Sea is a large, fjordal estuarine system opening onto the northeast Pacific Ocean. It develops a strong estuarine exchange flow that draws in nutrients from the ocean and flushes the system on timescales of several months. It is difficult to apply existing dynamical theories of estuarine circulation there because of the extreme bathymetric complexity. A realistic numerical model of the system was manipulated to have stronger and weaker tides to explore the sensitivity of the exchange flow to tides. This sensitivity was explored over two timescales: annual means and the spring‐neap. Two theories for the estuarine exchange flow are: (a) “gravitational circulation” where exchange is driven by the baroclinic pressure gradient due to along‐channel salinity variation, and (b) “tidal pumping” where tidal advection combined with flow separation forces the exchange. Past observations suggested gravitational circulation was of leading importance in the Salish Sea. We find here that the exchange flow increases with stronger tides, particularly in annual averages, suggesting it is controlled by tidal pumping. However, the landward salt transport due to the exchange flow decreases with stronger tides because greater mixing decreases the salinity difference between incoming and outgoing water. These results may be characteristic of estuarine systems that have rough topography and strong tides.

Distinct microbial communities degrade cellulose diacetate bioplastics in the coastal ocean.

Cellulose diacetate (CDA) is a promising alternative to conventional plastics due to its versatility in manufacturing and low environmental persistence. Previously, our group demonstrated that CDA is susceptible to biodegradation in the ocean on timescales of months. In this study, we report the composition of microorganisms driving CDA degradation in the coastal ocean. We found that the coastal ocean harbors distinct bacterial taxa implicated in CDA degradation and these taxa have not been previously identified in prior CDA degradation studies, indicating an unexplored diversity of CDA-degrading bacteria in the ocean. Moreover, the shape of the plastic article (e.g., a fabric, film, or foam) and plasticizer in the plastic matrix selected for different microbial communities. Our findings pave the way for future studies to identify the specific species and enzymes that drive CDA degradation in the marine environment, ultimately yielding a more predictive understanding of CDA biodegradation across space and time.

Drift Characteristics of Sea-Bird Dissolved Oxygen Optode Sensors

Abstract The Sea-Bird 63 dissolved oxygen optode sensors used on various oceanographic platforms are known to drift over time. Corrections for drift are necessary for accurate dissolved oxygen measurements on the time scale of months to years. Here, drift on 14 Sea-Bird 63 dissolved oxygen optode sensors deployed on Spray underwater gliders over 5 years is described. The gliders with oxygen sensors were deployed regularly for 100-day missions as part of the California Underwater Glider Network (CUGN). A laboratory two-point calibration was performed on the oxygen sensor before and after glider deployment. Sensor drift during 100-day deployments was larger than during 100-day storage periods. Sensor behavior is modeled with a gain that asymptotically approaches 1.090 ± 0.005 with an e-folding time scale of 3.70 ± 0.361 years. At zero oxygen concentration, the sensor consistently reads around 3 μmol kg−1; a negative offset term is used in addition to the gain to correct the sensor oxygen. The correction procedure removes the error due to long time drift, one of the major sources of error, with an uncertainty of 0.5% (0.9% including outliers) or 0.5 μmol kg−1 depending on concentration, which improves the accuracy of the Sea-Bird 63 although uncertainty from other sources of error including the initial factory calibration and the sensor response time remain. Suggested procedures for implementing a two-point calibration procedure in the laboratory are discussed. Calibrations must be considered starting 6 months after initial factory calibration to keep error from sensor time drift under 1%. Significance Statement Dissolved oxygen measurements are widely used in oceanography. The optode sensors used to measure dissolved oxygen are known to drift over time. Here, the characteristics of drift for the oxygen optode sensor from Sea-Bird Scientific are described using a two-point calibration at zero and full saturation. The calibration procedure can be applied to oxygen optode sensors deployed on a variety of platforms when it is impractical to complete a multipoint calibration.

Validation of chirps gauge – satellite based rainfall dataset over Nicaragua, 2011 - 2021

Rainfall is a key input for many weather and climate numerical models. Therefore the strong need to have a dense enough monitoring network for this parameter. Satellite-based rainfall products have emerged in recent decades as an alternative to the more expensive gauge stations. However, a proper validation of such satellite-based products against gauge data must be performed before using their data. This study presents a validation of CHIRPS dataset against gauge data for 17 stations across Nicaragua. The performance of the product was validated at different temporal scales (daily, pentadal, monthly and annual) by different error metrics. A total of six quantitative error metrics was assessed: Bias Percentage (PBIAS), Mean Error (ME), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Pearson’s r and Nash Stucliffe Efficiency (NSE). A total three categorical indices were assessed at daily time scale: Probability of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR) and Critical Success Index (CSI). The results showed that CHIRPS dataset have better performance at monthly and annual time scales, while it is not capable of adequately represent the daily variability.

Drivers of Cloud Condensation Nuclei in the Eastern North Atlantic as Observed at the ARM Site

AbstractSeven years of data collected at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement's Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site are analyzed to understand the controls of Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) concentrations in the region. Day‐night differences in the aerosol data as segregated by wind direction demonstrate the aerosol observations to be impacted by local emissions when the wind direction (wdir) is between 90° and 310° (measured clockwise from the North where air is coming from). Data collected during marine conditions (wdir <90° or wdir >310°) show the CCN concentrations to be higher in the summer months as compared to the winter months. CCN budget analysis revealed advection and precipitation scavenging being primarily responsible for modulating the CCN concentrations at the site on monthly timescales, with rain rates driving the precipitation scavenging term. High (greater than 75th percentile) and low (lower than 25th percentile) CCN events were identified for each month to characterize the sub‐monthly variability of CCN concentrations. Low CCN events had thicker clouds, stronger rain rates, and lower reanalysis reported free‐tropospheric aerosol pseudo number concentration at the ENA site as compared to the high CCN events. Analysis of satellite data of air‐parcels 48 hr prior to their arrival at the ENA site demonstrated the air parcels during low CCN events to encounter higher cloudiness, stronger rain rates, and higher cloud top heights as compared to the high CCN events. The results presented herein provide key constraints for model evaluation studies and climatological studies conducted at the ENA site.

Bioreaction coupled flow simulations: Impacts of methanogenesis on seasonal underground hydrogen storage

Assessing microbial risks is key to feasible hydrogen storage in geological formations. This work quantitatively analyses the impacts of bio-methanation on hydrogen storage performance. Fine-scale flow simulations, coupled with the bio-methanation reaction, are presented to analyse its impact on the storage performance. Based on the reported rates in literature, methanogenesis may slightly degrade the recovery performance of hydrogen but is considered minor compared with the issue of gas mixing. The impacts of methanogenesis on a time scale of months (330 days) becomes observable in the system configured here, when the methanation rate is above 1746 nano molality per hour. The assumed methanation rate is two times greater than the rate reported from the Olla filed. Validated scaling theory generalises findings for gravity-dominated scenarios. But viscous-dominated flows see complications from property variations due to pressure changes at high rates. This study provides definitions of “target properties” (e.g., acceptable methanogenesis rates) for screening hydrogen storage projects.