Monthly Temperature Values Research Articles

Impact of Temperature and Atmospheric Pressure on Hospitalizations of Patients Presenting With Acute Coronary Syndrome.

This study aims to investigatethe impact of temperature and atmospheric pressure on hospitalizations of patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). This is a retrospective, observational, analytical study conducted in a single center, University Hospital Center "Mother Teresa," Tirana, Albania, in the period January-December 2018. This study included 1,165 patients with ACS, who performed urgent coronary angiography, from January 2018 to December 2018. Patients were diagnosed withACS based on clinical and examination findings. The data were collected retrospectively using patient files. Baseline demographic, clinical, and procedural characteristics were collected. Data on atmospheric parameters, measured at the weather monitoring station, were obtained from the National Meteorological Service database. Measurements from the meteorological service provided values ​​for each parameter: average daily temperature and atmospheric pressure in each country district. Atmospheric data measurements were taken for the day under review. The number of inhabitants for the respective districts is taken from the National Institute of Statistics (INSTAT). The study involved 1,165 patients, with a mean age of 63.1 years, ranging from 27 years to 89 years old. The majority of patients (78.6%) were male, while 21.4% were female. A statistically significant relationship was observed between seasonal changes in temperature and atmospheric pressure concerning the number of cases with ACS; the autumn season prevails with 27.9% of the total cases, followed by the spring season with 25.6%, the summer season with 24.2%, and winter season with 22.3% (p = 0.04). Additionally, significant changes in the average monthly values ​​of temperature and atmospheric pressure were accompanied by a statistically significant increase in the number of cases as occurred in March-April and October-November (p ≤ 0.05). Most cases in the cold period (November-March) occurred on days with a change in temperature or atmospheric pressure with a statistically significant value of p < 0.05. An important relationship between seasonal, monthly, and daily changes in temperature and atmospheric pressure concerning the frequency of cases with ACS was observed.

Climate and disease in historical urban space: evidence from 19th century Poznań, Poland

Abstract. This study examines the relationship between temperature levels and precipitation amounts as explanatory variables for the probability of death due to waterborne and airborne diseases in historical urban space. To date, the literature has not focused on the climatological epidemiology of 19th century Polish urban areas. We used individual mortality data from Poznań parish death registers between 1850 and 1900. Each deceased individual was assigned average monthly temperature values and precipitation amounts in the month of death, LAG1 (1-month-lagged) temperature and LAG1 rainfall, and place of residence. We studied the relationship between weather conditions and mortality using formalized statistical models reflecting the discrete nature of the response data (via multinomial logistic regression). Lagged monthly average temperature levels and lagged monthly average precipitation amounts were better predictors of airborne and waterborne disease mortality than the concurrent (non-lagged) monthly averages. The lagged effects of temperature and precipitation on waterborne and airborne diseases were significant (except for the smooth lagged average monthly temperature effect for airborne diseases). There was also significant spatial heterogeneity (differences among city quarters) in the prevalence of deaths due to waterborne and airborne diseases.

Climate variability in the extra-Carpathian area of Romania in the context of climate change

The aim of this paper is to analyze in 2012-2017 the evolution of climate trends and meteorological parameters with significant relevance in agriculture, from the perspective of the potential risk associated with climate change and the need to adapt to their effects. Agrometeorological monitoring of a crop area includes information on the assessment of biological conditions for plant growth and development, the duration of the growing season and the vulnerability of agricultural areas to water and heat stress, in order for beneficiaries to choose the most effective measures. to prevent and reduce the negative effects on crops. In order to identify some peculiarities, we analyzed the average monthly values of temperature and atmospheric precipitation at the 63 meteorological stations with agrometeorological program, in the extra-Carpathian area of Romania, from 2012-2017 and were compared with the data from the reference period 1981-2010. Also, the temperature and precipitation data were spatialized with the highlighting of the changes in the study area compared to the reference period. Based on the calculation and analysis of agrometeorological parameters of thermal and water stress, this paper presents the importance of knowing the evolution of meteorological conditions with significant impact on the agricultural sector.

Statistical Model of Temperature Anomalies Using a New Instability Index

A statistical model (relationship) between a new circulation instability index and the registered temperature anomalies in two regions of Europe has been proposed and tested. The average values of this index, calculated at levels of 850 hPa and 500 hPa, were used as predictors in the modelling of temperature anomalies by months for the period 2011–2020. The average monthly values of temperature and geopotential during this period were utilized to calculate the index and anomalies in these regions. For each of them, the following statistical characteristics were calculated: correlation, root mean square error, and the coefficient of determination (R-squared). They evaluate the performance of the statistical model. The obtained results demonstrate the principal applicability of the instability index in a similar way as the well established circulation estimator North Atlantic Oscillation.

Climate change impact on water balance of quasi-closed lagoons in the North-Western Black Sea coast

The paper studies the impact of regional climate changes that occurred in the past and are expected to occur in the near future on the components of the annual fresh water balance of quasi-closed lagoons in the North-Western Black Sea coast. Currently these lagoons have no permanent connection with the sea. However, there are some episodic connections via artificially created channels, ducts and other waterworks. The value of insufficiency of the studied lagoons' annual fresh water balance is used as an indicator of their ecosystems' sensitivity to climate change. Action plans must be created and implemented for the lagoons that are the most sensitive to changes in regional climatic conditions in order to achieve and maintain their "good" environmental quality status.&#x0D; The climate-induced changes of meteorological parameters in the North-Western Black Sea coast that determine the components of the lagoons' water balance are estimated for two periods: the current one from 2000 to 2018 (based on the observations made at coastal meteorological stations) and the near-future one of 2021-2050 which is compared to the 1961-1990 period (based on the data of the Climate Cadastre of Ukraine). The expected climatic conditions in the near future (2021-2050) were determined by the RCM simulations of the Euro-CORDEX project for the RCP4.5 climate change scenario.&#x0D; The research evaluates the components of the lagoons' fresh water balance (precipitation reaching the lagoons' water surface, fresh water inflow from the catchments, evaporation from the lagoons' water surface) and identifies the residuals (shortages) of annual balance. It uses the "climate-runoff" hydrological model for the above climatic periods to determine the fresh water inflow into the lagoons through the watercourses of their catchment areas. The annual evaporation layer from the lagoons' water surface was evaluated using the long-term average monthly values of temperature and relative humidity for each of the periods.&#x0D; It was established that the climatic changes that occurred earlier and those expected in the current century caused and will cause the increasing insufficiency of the annual fresh water balance of quasi-closed lagoons in the North-Western Black Sea coast. This can threaten salinization, shallowing or even disappearance of some lagoons. Thus new strategies for water and environmental management of such lagoons must be developed. In terms of vulnerability to climate changes leading to significant annual insufficiency of fresh water balance (if there are no other water sources, e.g. water from the sea), lagoons are ranked in the following order: Kuialnytskyi Lagoon, Dofinivskyi Lagoon, Budatskyi Lagoon (if there is no water inflow from the Dnistrovskyi Lagoon), the Tuzla group of lagoons, Sasyk Lagoon, Tyligulskyi Lagoon, Hadzhybeisky Lagoon (if there is no anthropogenic runoff).

The impact of temperature changes on patients with acute coronary syndrome

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Background There are few studies about changes in temperature as a risk factor instability of atheromatous plaque and Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS). It is the first study in our country. Purpose To evaluate the impact of temperature on patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome. Methods This is a retrospective, observational, analytical study conducted in a single-center, in the period January-December 2018. We included patients with the diagnosis of ACS, hospitalized in CCU, who performed emergency coronary angiography. Data were collected retrospectively using patient records from archived files at the Statistics Center. Data on atmospheric parameters, measured at the weather monitoring station, were obtained from the National Meteorological Service database (average daily temperature in each district of the country). The number of inhabitants for the respective districts is taken from the National Institute of Statistics. Results The study included 1165 patients. A significant association was found between the number of ACS per day with temperature changes (r=-0.13, p&amp;lt;0.01). The highest number of ACS was in October 10.4%, whereas the lowest number was in January 10.6%, with a significant decreasing trend during May-June and the peak in October (p=0.04). Significant changes in the average monthly values of temperature were accompanied by a statistically significant increase in the number of cases as occurred in March-April and October-November. (p≤0.05) A statistically significant relationship was observed between seasonal changes in temperature with the number of cases with ACS. The autumn season prevails with 27.9% of the total cases, followed by the spring season with 25.6%, the summer season with 24.2%, and the winter season with 22.3%, (p = 0.04). Most cases in the cold period (November-March) occurred on days with statistically significant changes in Temperature. Conclusion The study notes an important relationship between seasonal, monthly, and daily changes of temperatures, in relation to the frequency of cases with Acute Coronary Syndrome.

CHANGE DYNAMICS OF AIR TEMPERATURE AND ATMOSPHERIC RAIN IN ALIBAY AND ZAGATALA TERRITORY OF AZERBAIJAN

Aim: the main aim of the study is exploration of change dynamics of air temperature and atmospheric rain in Alibey and Zagatala territory of Azerbaijan.In the article, the author used the data for 1961-2019 to study possible climatic changes in Alibey and Zagatala on the basis of instrumental observations, as well as studied the specifics of the timing of the distribution of key parameters. One of the most serious problems of humanity today is global climate change. Therefore, the study of the temporal temperature and sediments in the current period is one of the current tasks. Temperature fluctuations and the number of sediments directly affect the stock river and, in general, the hydrological regime. The work analyzes the periodic flow of air temperature and atmospheric sediments. Averaged monthly values of temperature and sediments for decades. Methodolgy: Data from 1961-1990 were used to calculate the "norms" based on WTO recommendations. The data of Alibey (absolute height 1540 meters) and Zagatala (absolute height 487 meters) meteorological stations of the former Hydrometeorological Committee and the current National Hydrometeorology Department were used to conduct these analyzes. Results:Calculated the mean square deviations of air temperature and determined large anomalies (1.5σ). For the considered seasons, years were found with a shortage of sediments and with abundant sediments. It has been established that in the last decade the number of positive temperature anomalies has increased. Sustaining the trend towards warming, with insignificant cooling in the last decade, as well as the absence of significant changes in the regime of sediments. It was found that the world community is seriously concerned about the number of natural disasters, huge losses caused by droughts and fires, which are the result of changes occurring in the surrounding area. It is stated that this fact testifies to the sharp trend of increasing the aridization of the territory, although the observed increase in air temperature is not accompanied by the corresponding increase in atmospheric sediments. The conclusion is that the effective means of preventing the consequences of climate change will be the creation and strengthening of the system of forecasting poverty and climatic services. Scientific novelity: The increase of air temperature is significantly to cause some early melting of the soil, resulting in an increase in water losses during spring floods

Effect of aging of Cladding Material on Crop Yield under Greenhouse Cultivation

Agriculture is the basis of our economic activity. For improving agricultural production greenhouse technology was developed to prevent adverse climatic conditions. Even though higher yield and profit were obtained from greenhouse production compared to open field cultivation farmers were not satisfied with this technique due to the drastic reduction of crop yield with the aging of cladding material. To test this, an experiment was conducted in the instructional farm of Kelappaji College of Agricultural Engineering and Technology (KCAET), Tavanur, Kerala during the period from April to June 2021. Amaranthus variety CO1 was planted inside two greenhouses where one is having cleaned cladding material and the other is an old one. Microclimatic parameters and the biometric observations of crop in both conditions were compared. Mean monthly values of temperature and light intensity were higher inside the cleaned greenhouse than the old one while relative humidity was higher inside the old greenhouse. Crop growth parameters were higher inside the cleaned greenhouse than the old one except the internodal length. From this study, it was clear that the aging of cladding material has a significantly higher influence on crop performance under greenhouse.

EFFECTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS ON PLANKTON ASSEMBLAGE IN AJIWA RESERVOIR, KATSINA STATE, NIGERIA

The effect of environmental (Physicochemical) and biological (plankton) parameters of Ajiwa reservoir were studied for a period of eight months (March–October 2018). Field and laboratory activities were carried out using standard protocols. Mean monthly values of Temperature ranged between 25.87±3.57°C–29.46±0.66°C, Electrical conductivity was between 32.00±3.46µs/cm–210.00±95.39µs/cm. Dissolve Oxygen, Total Dissolved Solid and Biological Oxygen Demand Means of monthly values ranges between 5.53±0.39mg/l–9.35±0.62mg/l, 33.087±0.06mg/l–84.01±4.37mg/l, and 2.69±0.34mg/l–7.27±1.88mg/l. While phosphate and nitrate means of monthly values ranges between 0.04±0.02mg/l–0.09±0.03mg/l, 0.03±0.01mg/l–0.09±0.02mg/l. Four Phytoplankton phyla dominated by Chlorophyta (387org/L), Euglenophyta (160 org/L), Cyanophyta (83 org/L) and Bacillariophyta (63 org/L) were recorded in the reservoir. The Zooplanktons fauna comprises of Rotifers (180 org/L), Cladocerans (149 org/L) and Copepods (78 org/L). Correlation matrix showed that there were significant correlation between Phytoplankton, Zooplankton and Physicochemical parameters. The composition of planktons in the reservoir were affected by seasonal variations and fluctuation of physicochemical parameters

Tree growth decline as a response to projected climate change in the 21st century in Mediterranean mountain forests of Chile

Global Climate Models project that observed climate trends are likely to be preserved and the number of extreme events will be increasing during the rest of the 21st century, which may have a detrimental impact on forest ecosystems. These impacts may include forest decline and widespread dieback of the most vulnerable biomes, such as the Mediterranean Forest of Central Chile (MFCC). Nothofagus macrocarpa and Austrocedrus chilensis are two canopy-dominant, endangered tree species in the mountains of MFCC. Here, we project tree growth of these species based on tree-ring width chronologies, a simplified version of a process-based model, and climate change projections. We used the tree ring information derived from ~400 trees from 12 sites distributed across MFCC in combination with the simplified version of process-based Vaganov-Shashkin tree-growth model (VS-Lite) to forecast changes in tree growth for the next four decades. Tree growth projections were made on the basis of monthly values of temperature and precipitation from the output of 35 climate models based on two ensembles of CO 2 emission scenarios of the IPCC AR5 (RCP 8.5: higher-emission scenario, and RCP 2.6: lower-emission scenario). For the MFCC region these scenarios result in temperature rise ranging between 0.5 °C and 2.0 °C, and a precipitation decrease between 5% and 20% by the year 2065, as related to historical conditions. Our results showed that the VS-Lite model is capable of reproducing tree growth decline during the recent extreme dry period, i.e. 2010–2018, which supports its use for tree growth projections in the MFCC region. According to the modeling results, we find that tree growth in both N. macrocarpa and A. chilensis forests distributed in the MFCC region will be adversely affected by future climate changes, mainly starting from the year 2035, under both scenarios. Our work provides evidence of the degree of vulnerability of Mediterranean mountain forests in central Chile according to current climate change projections. The projected decline in tree growth indicates serious risks in the dynamics and survival of these forests relatively soon, so alerts are given about this situation which may require to counteract the deleterious effects of global change on vegetation in this region. • A VS-Lite model was used to project radial growth from two mountain tree species of Central Chile Mediterranean forests. • The tree-growth model was robustly calibrated and validated for its use in future growth projections under climate change. • A significant tree growth decline in response to climate change is projected in Central Chile by 2065.

Dynamics of the Annual Variation in the Climate Variables of the Earth’s Atmosphere and Their Relation to Solar Activity

In this article, the dynamics of the annual variation in the mean monthly values of temperature and precipitation is studied via the expansion of series into natural orthogonal functions according to data from of observations at the Primorskii krai and St. Petersburg weather stations. It is found that the series converge rather quickly: two to three expansion components are sufficient. In this case, the first component of the series expansion of temperature contributes up to 98% to the variation of the basic series. The long-term trend of the annual variation amplitude decrease is revealed by the temporal variations. The second component of the series expansion of temperature contributes ≈0.5% and is apparently related to the general long-term climate warming. A trend toward increasing temperature and precipitation values is observed during the maximum and declining phase of the 11-year cycle of solar activity. In addition, the extreme values of climate variables drift during the declining phase of the 11-year cycle. This seems to be due to a small difference in the length of climate and solar cycles. There is a rather high correlation coefficient between the aa planetary geomagnetic index and the changes in the amplitude of the annual temperature variation.

Biogeographical factors determining Triatoma recurva distribution in Chihuahua, México, 2014.

Introduction: Triatoma recurva is a Trypanosoma cruzi vector whose distribution and biological development are determined by factors that may influence the transmission of trypanosomiasis to humans.Objective: To identify the potential spatial distribution of Triatoma recurve, as well as social factors determining its presence.Materials and methods: We used the MaxEnt software to construct ecological niche models while bioclimatic variables (WorldClim) were derived from the monthly values of temperature and precipitation to generate biologically significant variables. The resulting cartography was interpreted as suitable areas for T. recurva presence.Results: Our results showed that the precipitation during the driest month (Bio 14), the maximum temperature during the warmest month (Bio 5), and the altitude (Alt) and mean temperature during the driest quarter (Bio 9) determined T. recurva distribution area at a higher percentage evidencing its strong relationship with domestic and surrounding structures. Conclusions. This methodology can be used in other geographical contexts to locate potential sampling sites where these triatomines occur.

Modeling seasonal trends in optimum temperatures over India

AbstractGlobal warming and changes in seasonal temperature can severely affect the general circulation and precipitation distribution of a region. Therefore, it becomes essential to analyze seasonal trends in air temperature with changing climate. The present study evaluates the troposphere temperature extremes over India during different seasons. We intend to identify significant trends in temperature distribution in different regions of India using the Mann–Kendall test. Further, we have calculated indices concerning temperature extremes to make inferences about the nature of this monotonicity at four pressure levels on a seasonal and annual basis. The temperature data being used in our analysis is obtained from the output of a Regional Climate Model version 4.6 (RegCM v4.6). The monthly temperature values are taken for 25 years (1982–2006) from the model output. We observed that the model captured temperature climatology is coherent with our theoretical analysis. Results of our study reveal a significant (p &amp;lt; 0.05) trend in TT during all the seasons in major parts of the country in the lower troposphere. The upper troposphere, on the other hand, does not show any significant trend during most of the seasons. The identification of these changes can be useful for analysis of coastal vulnerability and extreme weather conditions.

Results of studies of the coastal zone of Lake Ladoga in the area of Valaam Archipelago (1998–2019) at RSHU

Ecological monitoring data of pelagic communities and environmental factors for the coastal zone of the Valaam archipelago and also littoral and sublittoral samples analyses of contrasting hydrological conditions zones are generalized. Values ranges of the focused parameters have been identified for the unique coastal zone of Lake Ladoga with a significant biotopes diversity over than 20 years of research. Phyto- and zooplankton abundance relatively high indices are characteristic of water area closed from wind and wave mixing. This area is characterized by an active vegetation period of macrophytes and highly productive macrozoobenthos formation. According to the open water area temperature (conducted since 2013) continuous data (logger) observations, a significant average monthly temperature values interannual variability is shown, warm period duration with a surface water horizon temperature value more than 10 °C is equal to 100 days. In shallow closed areas, zooplankton biomass values differ strongly from another parts of the water area. However, in some cases, extremely high values of phytoplankton biomass (up to 29.5 mg / l) were observed in Lake Ladoga open areas, associated mostly with surges. In general, the phyto- and zooplankton biomass in the Valaam archipelago open areas coastal zone is comparable with the data for the northern Lake Ladoga deep-water area, for the closed areas biomass has been lower than the published earlier data for the coastal zone of the lake. Plankton quantitative development interannual differences are caused by the hydrological conditions of specific years. Despite the relatively small coastal zone area and macrophytesmosaic distribution, this community was characterized by a high species richness (more than half of the species recorded for Ladoga). In terms of quantitative characteristics, the invertebrates littoral communities are not less then to well-studied communities of the coastal area at depths up to a meter and significantly much bigger those observed in the open lake water area. The littoral fauna (including groups of larva insects, some crustaceans and molluscs) is observed in various conditions (10-12 m depth), thus, with macrophytes distribution data, it makes possible to expand the littoral boundary zone equals to 10 m depth, instead of the previously depth equals 8.5 m. The water area, for all studied biological communities, is classified as oligo-mesotrophic.

Development of a statistical forecast model to improve accuracy based on statistical analysis of weather historical data for the Kalmyk region

The article presents the main assumption that the averaging and smoothing models for the time series of meteorological data are local-stationary with slowly varying values. Accordingly, to estimate the current average, a local average was chosen, which was used to forecast for the near future and can be considered as a compromise between the average model and the random walk model (without drift). The same strategy can be used to evaluate and extrapolate a local trend. Average monthly values of temperature, humidity and pressure for the period from January 1928 to December 2018 were used as initial data at 4 synoptic stations. Comparative statistics on dependencies and forecasts are given. The selected method — a moving average — is often referred to as a smoothed version of the original series, since short-term averaging in a given window has the effect of smoothing irregularities in the desired series. The objective of the study was to adjust the degree of smoothing for the moving average, as an optimal balance between the performance of averaging models and the simplicity of the random walk model or between quality and cost. The task was solved on the basis of the software implementation of the SARIMA model, which required a lengthy adjustment of the initial data and significant manipulations with time series, however, in the end, a successful model was selected.

Influence of meteorological factors on the secondary contamination of atmospheric air by formaldehyde ( on the example of the city of Kyiv).

Many authors on the basis of researches give information that motor transport is the basic source of contamination of atmospheric air of cities of Ukraine. This work touches on the estimation of the level and dynamics of contamination of m. Kyiv extras from a motor transport and influence of meteorological factors of locality on the degree of atmospheric contamination (including secondary one as a result of actinic transformations). Authors set connections between the components of SO, Nox, CHOH, and ambient temperature, on the basis of the analysis of the last five years of statistical information of basic components contaminations from motor transport, which take part in the formation of actinic transformations. The authors found out close cross-correlation connection between the molecules of Nox, CHOH, and average monthly values of temperature on the basis of the analysis of these monitoring supervisions. Also, there were investigational processes of the formation of molecules of SNON depending on other climatic factors of the city of Kyiv, namely: the humidity of the air, speed of the wind, and index of acidity of the atmosphere (pH). It is well-proven that formation of formaldehyde in mid-air above motor transport ways the degree of acidification of atmospheric fallouts influences mediated. However, have a direct cross-correlation connection between the relative humidity of air and the speed of the wind. Temperature terms play a key role in forming the secondary contamination formaldehyde above motor transport overpasses and he takes into account other climatic factors of locality mediated. Speed of reaction of the transformation of hydrocarbons in formaldehyde at neutral meteorological terms is considered on the example of the motor-car upshot of the Darnicka square. The decision of equalization of the speed of transformation of extras of hydrocarbons is found in formaldehyde by the decision of equalization of Arreniusa. This method can be applied to other cities of Ukraine. The conducted researches will allow to promote ecological strength security on the urbanized territories by the improvement of questions of acceptance of administrative decisions at building and reconstruction of motor-car overpasses of the city, and also at forming of strategic plans of ecological development of city and setting of nature protection measures.

Contemporary Pyrogeography and Wildfire-Climate Relationships of South Dakota, USA

A recent wildland fire history and climate database was compiled for South Dakota, USA (SD). Wildfires are generally a warm season phenomenon across central and western SD while eastern SD exhibits a spring peak in annual wildfire activity. It is hypothesized that regional climate and land use are the two primary drivers of the spatiotemporal wildfire distribution across the state. To assess the relative impacts of climate to wildfire activity, Spearman’s rank order correlation coefficients were calculated for monthly values of temperature, precipitation, and the Palmer Drought Modified Index (PMDI) as compared to both monthly area burned and numbers of fire starts data for each of the nine climate divisions in South Dakota. Results show statewide variations in significant correlations but positive temperature anomalies, negative precipitation anomalies, and negative values of the PMDI were most frequently associated with months showing substantial area burned and large numbers of wildfire starts. Time-lagged significant correlations were also seen implying month(s)-ahead predictive capabilities. Positive PMDI values were most significantly correlated to warm season wildfire activity suggesting that the influence of drought on wildfires within SD may be limited to the summer months.

Association between environmental factors and hospitalisations for bronchiectasis in Badalona, Barcelona, Spain (2007–2015)

IntroductionThe relationship between environmental factors and the exacerbation of respiratory diseases has been widely studied. However, there are no studies examining the relationship between these factors and bronchiectasis exacerbations. Our objective was to analyse the association between various environmental factors and hospitalisation for bronchiectasis. Material and methodsThis was a retrospective observational study conducted at two hospitals in Badalona (Barcelona). The number of hospital admissions for exacerbation of bronchiectasis between 2007 and 2015 was obtained. Through multiple regression we analysed the relationship between the number of exacerbations and mean monthly values of temperature, SO2, NO, NO2, O3 and CO. ResultsTemperature, SO2, NO, NO2, O3 and CO were significantly associated with an increase in admissions due to exacerbation of bronchiectasis. By controlling the effect of temperature on the pollution variables, only SO2 maintained statistical significance (p=0.008). ConclusionWe have detected an increase in hospital admissions for exacerbation of bronchiectasis with increases in the atmospheric concentration of SO2 and the decrease in temperature. Prospective studies with different geographical locations to confirm these results are needed.

Nonlinear dynamics of monthly temperature data set in the Northwestern (Marmara region) Turkey

Temperature is one of the essential quantities which affect the agriculture, economy, survival of animal and plant species. Turkey, located in the interconnection of Europe and Asia, contains various climate types. In this research, dynamics of temperature values over northeastern Turkey is investigated via nonlinear time series techniques. Monthly data set, through the period between 1960 and 2006, from various parts of the region is used to understand the underlying dynamics and its spatial distribution. Well-known phase space reconstruction method is used to calculate the maximal Lyapunov exponent for each data set which will indicate the chaotic behaviour. Along with the nonlinear time series analysis, statistical properties of the data are also determined to reveal any possible trends in the data. Calculated positive Lyapunov exponents indicate that the time series of average monthly temperature values have a possible chaotic underlying dynamics over the region.

Mathematics of dengue transmission dynamics: Roles of vector vertical transmission and temperature fluctuations.

A new deterministic model is designed and used to gain insight into the effect of seasonal variations in temperature and vector vertical transmission on the transmission dynamics of dengue disease. The model, which incorporates (among many other features) the dynamics of the immature dengue-competent mosquitoes, vertical transmission in the vector population, density-dependent larval mortality and temperature effects, is rigorously analysed and simulated using data relevant to the disease dynamics in Chiang Mai province of Thailand. The non-trivial disease-free equilibrium of the model is shown to be globally-asymptotically stable when the associated basic reproduction number of the model is less than unity. Numerical simulations of the model, using data relevant to the disease dynamics in the Chiang Mai province of Thailand, show that vertical transmission in the vector population has only marginal impact on the disease dynamics, and that the effect of vertical transmission is temperature-dependent (in particular, the effect of vertical transmission on the disease dynamics increases for values of the mean monthly temperature in the range C, and decreases with increasing mean monthly temperature thereafter). It is further shown that dengue burden (as measured in terms of disease incidence) is maximized when the mean monthly temperature is in the range C (and dengue burden decreases for mean monthly temperature values above C). Thus, this study suggests that anti-dengue control efforts should be intensified during the period when this temperature range is recorded in the Chiang Mai province (this occurs between June and August).