Monthly Current Population Survey Research Articles

The Effect of Job Loss on Bank Account Ownership

AbstractWe estimate the effect of job loss on households’ bank account ownership using novel data: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC)‐sponsored biennial supplements to the Current Population Survey (CPS), linked to respondents’ work history in surrounding months constructed from the Basic Monthly CPS. Leveraging differences in the timing of unemployment spells across households, we show that job loss leads to a large decrease in the likelihood of having an account among the lower‐income, renter households we study. Job loss also leads to increased use of other products and services that might substitute for a bank account, including prepaid cards, check cashing, and money orders.

EFFECTS OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON OLDER WORKERS’ LABOR MARKET AND RETIREMENT DECISIONS

Abstract Several studies have documented the increase in retirement since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. I contribute to this literature by answering two key questions that show the pandemic excess retirement is caused primarily by demand-side factors: first, using the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS) data on employment and retirement of older workers and CPS’s panel structure, I explore if older workers left their jobs and the labor force voluntarily as a part of “the great resignation”. I find that very few workers quit their jobs voluntarily, and most retirements were preceded by involuntary job loss and unemployment. Second, using the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) with its rich data on wealth, employment, and the special Covid-19 related questions included in 2020 HRS (Wave 15), I examine if older workers who experienced job loss during the pandemic retired because they were financially prepared for retirement. I find that among the small group of older workers who quit their jobs because of the pandemic, the majority did not have adequate retirement assets and their decision is more likely to be based on their health status and vulnerability during the pandemic.

US Labor Market after COVID-19: An Interim Report

Headline numbers have shown that the US labor market has recovered the jobs lost during the pandemic. Nevertheless, there is significant variation in the recovery across states and counties and across occupations and industries. Using the available data from the monthly Current Population Survey and the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ State and Metro Area Employment, Hours, and Earnings for January 2019 to August 2022, we present the changing patterns in the labor market. We also highlight some possible underlying reasons that are correlated with the varying patterns across groups and space. Finally, we look at the spatial distribution of the employment across states and micro and metropolitan areas. Results are in line with an uneven recovery across areas, while at odds with a narrative based on working arrangements making economic activity more even across space.

Does the internet help the unemployed find jobs?

This study examines the effect of internet job search (IJS) on job-finding rates among unemployed job seekers during the rapid expansion of the internet from the mid-1990s to the early 2010s. To address endogenous selection into IJS, I use an instrumental variables (IV) strategy exploiting the rise of IJS within occupations over time, which varied across occupations depending on pre-internet exposure to computers at work. The analysis sample includes unemployed workers from the December 1998, August 2000, September 2001, October 2003, and July 2011 Current Population Survey (CPS) Computer and Internet Use Supplements and the September 1992 Basic Monthly CPS, longitudinally matched with their employment outcomes from the subsequent monthly CPS files. The IV estimates indicate that IJS increased the 15-month job-finding rate by 12.9 percentage points (25.1% relative to the mean). Results from placebo exercises and various specification checks support a causal interpretation of the estimated effects. Additionally, the effectiveness of IJS remained stable over time throughout the analysis period.

Schooling and Parental Labor Supply: Evidence from COVID-19 School Closures in the United States.

This article examines changes in parental labor supply in response to the unanticipated closure of schools following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. The authors collect detailed daily information on school closures at the school-district level, which they merge to individual-level data on labor supply and sociodemographic characteristics from the monthly Current Population Survey spanning from January 2019 through May 2020. Using a difference-in-differences estimation approach, the authors find evidence of non-negligible labor supply reductions. Having a partner at home helped offset the negative effect of school closures, particularly for maternal employment, although respondents' job traits played a more significant role in shaping labor supply responses to school closures. Overall, the labor supply impacts of school closures prove robust to identification checks and to controlling for other coexistent social distancing measures. In addition, these early school closures seem to have had a long-lasting negative impact on parental labor supply.

Research Note: Gender Differences in Employment During the COVID-19 Epidemic.

We investigate the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on gender disparities in three employment outcomes: labor force participation, full-time employment, and unemployment. Using data from the monthly Current Population Survey, in this research note we test individual fixed-effects models to examine the employment status of women relative to that of men in the nine months following the onset of the epidemic in March of 2020. We also test separate models to examine differences between women and men based on the presence of young children. Because the economic effects of the epidemic coincided with the summer months, when women's employment often declines, we account for seasonality in women's employment status. After doing so, we find that women's full-time employment did not decline significantly relative to that of men during the months following the beginning of the epidemic. Gender gaps in unemployment and labor force participation did increase, however, in the early and later months of the year, respectively. Our findings regarding women's labor force participation and employment have implications for our understanding of the long-term effects of the health crisis on other demographic outcomes.

Teachers’ Working Hours During the COVID-19 Pandemic

This study uses nationally representative data for the United States from the Basic Monthly Current Population Survey to document how teachers’ hours of work have changed in 2020 and 2021 relative to typical labor supply levels and to the hours worked by other college-educated professional workers. Controlling for demographics, teachers’ hours decreased early in the pandemic, but throughout the 2020–2021 school year teachers have been working more than usual. The increase is slightly more pronounced for veteran teachers and for females. The findings emphasize the increased demands of the teaching profession during the global pandemic.

The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on transportation employment: A comparative analysis

The COVID-19 pandemic caused a variety of social, economic, and environmental changes. This paper examines the employment-related impacts of the pandemic on workers in the transportation industry compared to other industries, and within different transportation sectors. We estimated random effects logistic regression models to test the following three hypotheses using the monthly Current Population Survey micro-data. One, the transportation industry experienced a greater incidence of unemployment than other industries. Two, there is heterogeneity in employment impacts within the transportation sector. Three, specific sectors within the transportation industry experienced more employment impacts than other essential industries, as designated by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Phase 1a vaccination guidelines. Model results highlight that workers in the transportation sector were 20.6% more likely to be unemployed because of the pandemic than workers in non-transportation industries. Model results also indicate large intra-sector heterogeneities in employment impacts within the transportation sector. Taxi and limousine drivers were 28 times more likely to be unemployed compared to essential workers. Scenic and sightseeing transportation workers were 23.8 times more likely to be unemployed compared to essential workers. On the other end of the spectrum, however, postal workers and pipeline workers were 84% and 67% less likely to be unemployed compared to essential workers, respectively. From a policy perspective, these results suggest that attention to several aspects of transportation work is needed in the coming years to prepare for future interruptions to the transportation industry.

The intensity of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions and labor market outcomes in the public sector.

This paper examines whether the intensity of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic has differentially impacted the public sector labor market outcomes. This extends the analysis of the already documented negative economic consequences of COVID‐19 and their dissimilarities with a typical economic crisis. To capture the intensity of the NPIs, we build a novel index (COVINDEX) using daily information on NPIs merged with state‐level data on out‐of‐home mobility (Google data). We show that among individuals living in a typical state, NPI enforcement during COVID‐19 reduces the likelihood of being employed (at work) by 5% with respect to the pre‐COVID period and the hours worked by 1.3% using data on labor market outcomes from the monthly Current Population Survey and difference‐in‐difference models. This is a sizable amount representing the sector with the higher job security during the pandemic. Public sector workers in a typical state are 4 percentage points more likely to be at work than salaried workers in the private sector and 7 percentage points more likely to be at work than self‐employed workers (the worst so far). Our results are robust to the endogeneity of the NPI measures and present empirical evidence of heterogeneity in response to the NPIs, with those in local employment being the hardest hit.

The Economic Status of People with Disabilities and Their Families since the Great Recession

People with disabilities face substantial barriers to sustained employment and stable, adequate income. We assess how they and their families fared during the long economic expansion that followed the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009, using data from the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS) and the March CPS annual income supplement. We find that the expansion bolstered the well-being of people with disabilities and, in particular, their labor market engagement. We also find that federal disability benefits fell during the expansion. On balance, our results suggest that sustained economic growth can bolster the labor market engagement of people with disabilities and potentially reduce their reliance on disability benefits.

Changes in the Employment Status of People With and Without Disabilities in the United States During the COVID-19 Pandemic

ObjectiveUsing data from the monthly Current Population Survey, this paper provides monthly employment and unemployment statistics for people with and without disabilities in the United States before and during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic to date (January 2021). DesignCross-sectional analysis of the Current Population Survey. SettingThe United States. ParticipantsPeople with and without disabilities ages 16-64 years. InterventionN/A Main Outcome MeasuresPercentage employed, percentage unemployed, percentage not in labor force, percentage on temporary layoff, percentage looking for work. ResultsEstimates show that, like workers without disabilities, workers with disabilities experienced increases in unemployment at the beginning of the pandemic but continued to remain engaged in the labor force. Our analysis finds that employment rates dropped from 74.8% to 63.2% for those without disabilities and from 31.1% to 26.4% for those with disabilities between February 2020 and April 2020 but gradually improved in the succeeding months. ConclusionsAs the pandemic continued, the percentage of unemployed people with and without disabilities on temporary layoff decreased and those looking for work increased.

COVID-19 She-Cession: The Employment Penalty of Taking Care of Young Children

The COVID-19 outbreak and the measures to contain the virus have caused severe disruptions to labor supply and demand worldwide. Understanding who is bearing the burden of the crisis and what drives it is crucial for designing policies going forward. Using the U.S. monthly Current Population Survey data, this paper analyzes differences in employment responses between men and women. The main finding is that less educated women with young children were the most adversely affected during the first nine months of the crisis.The loss of employment of women with young children due to the burden of additional childcare is estimated to account for 45 percent of the increase in the employment gender gap, and to reduce total output by 0.36 percent between April and November 2020.

COVID-19 She-Cession: The Employment Penalty of Taking Care of Young Children

The COVID-19 outbreak and the measures to contain the virus have caused severe disruptions to labor supply and demand worldwide. Understanding who is bearing the burden of the crisis and what drives it is crucial for designing policies going forward. Using the U.S. monthly Current Population Survey data, this paper analyzes differences in employment responses between men and women. The main finding is that less educated women with young children were the most adversely affected during the first nine months of the crisis.The loss of employment of women with young children due to the burden of additional childcare is estimated to account for 45 percent of the increase in the employment gender gap, and to reduce total output by 0.36 percent between April and November 2020.

The Economic Status of People with Disabilities and their Families since the Great Recession

People with disabilities face substantial barriers to sustained employment and stable, adequate income. We assess how they and their families fared during the long economic expansion that followed the Great Recession of 2007-09, using data from the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS) and the March CPS annual income supplement. We find that the expansion bolstered the well-being of people with disabilities and in particular their relative labor market engagement. We also find that applications and awards for federal disability benefits fell during the expansion. On balance, our results suggest that sustained economic growth can bolster the labor market engagement of people with disabilities and potentially reduce their reliance on disability benefits.

Masking Real Unemployment: The Overall and Racial Impact of Survey Non-Response on Measured Labor Market Outcomes

A large and growing percentage of households are missed in the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS). For the survey as a whole, the rate of nonresponse is roughly 13 percent. This is higher for Blacks, with the share for young Black men being about 30 percent. The BLS’s current methodology effectively assumes that, with adjustment for various characteristics, people who are not included in a follow-up survey may not differ systematically from those who are included. The present paper, however, provides evidence that this may not be the case. With the rotation panel structure of the CPS data from 2003 to 2019, we investigate bias from nonresponse in CPS and its association with one’s prior labor market status, paying particular attention to how the relationship differs by race, ethnicity, and gender. Our analysis suggests that people are considerably more likely to be missing in a subsequent observation if they are unemployed or not in the labor force in the prior observation. We also estimate what the real labor market outcomes might have been when adjusting for nonresponse and undercoverage. Findings indicate that the current methodology may underestimate the national unemployment and labor force participation rates by about 0.7 and 1.2 percentage points, respectively. The gap between observed and adjusted unemployment rates tends to grow beginning in 2015. The unemployment rate is more understated for Blacks than for whites, particularly with a gap of about 3.3 percentage points for young Black men (age 16 to 34).

The Effect of Early Claiming Benefit Reduction on Retirement Rates

This paper examines the effect of the increase in the Social Security Full Retirement Age (FRA) and the associated decrease in benefits for early claimants on retirement rates at ages 62 to 65. It uses information on age, sex, and labor force participation from the monthly Current Population Survey from 1976 to 2019. Critical components of the analysis include a difference/in-difference framework, comparison of three measures of retirement status, estimation of nonparametric and parametric models, and a test of the assumptions underlying the difference-indifference approach. Although our model satisfied that test, the results do not guarantee that our specification is valid. The paper found that: • The increase in the FRA decreased the retirement rate at age 62 by about 5 percentage points (or 30 percent) for men and by about 2 percentage points (or about 20 percent) for women. The retirement rate at age 63 to 65 was not affected. • Estimates of the parametric model show that a 1 percent increase in the early claiming reduction decreases the retirement rate by between 0.7 and 0.9 percentage points for men and between 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points for women. The policy implications of the findings are: • Our findings can inform evaluations of policy proposals to further increase the Social Security FRA. • Our findings contribute to the understanding of the effects that the availability and generosity of pension benefits have on retirement decisions.

The Economic Status of People with Disabilities and Their Families Since the Great Recession

People with disabilities face substantial barriers to sustained employment and stable, adequate income. We assess how they and their families fared during the long economic expansion that followed the Great Recession of 2007-09, using data from the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS) and the March CPS annual income supplement. We find that the expansion bolstered the well-being of people with disabilities and in particular their relative labor market engagement. We also find that applications and awards for federal disability benefits fell during the expansion. On balance, our results suggest that sustained economic growth can bolster the labor market engagement of people with disabilities and potentially reduce their reliance on disability benefits.

How Has COVID-19 Affected the Labor Force Participation of Older Workers?

This paper uses the monthly Current Population Survey to study older workers’ transitions out of employment and into retirement before and during the pandemic. It examines whether the effect of the pandemic was particularly acute for workers with certain demographic characteristics and working conditions, and for those who faced different local public health and economic conditions.

Disparate Disruptions: Intersectional COVID-19 Employment Effects by Age, Gender, Education, and Race/Ethnicity

These are unprecedented times, as the COVID-19 pandemic disrupts public health, social interaction, and employment attachments. Evidence to date has been about broad shifts in unemployment rates as a percent of the labor force. We draw on monthly Current Population Survey data to examine subpopulation changes in employment states across the life course, from January through April 2020. COVID-19 downturns produced disparate life-course impacts. There are increases in unemployment and being out of the workforce at all ages, but especially among young adults, with young women most at risk. Intersectional analyses document conjoint life-course vulnerabilities by gender, educational attainment, and race/ethnicity. For example, Black men aged 20-29 with a college degree experienced a 12.4 percentage point increase in being not in the labor force for other reasons (NILF-other). Individuals with less than a college degree in their 50s and 60s were more likely to become unemployed, regardless of race. And more non-college-educated Asian men in their 60s and 70s reported being retired (6.6 and 8.9 percentage point increases, respectively). Repercussions from the pandemic may well challenge assumptions and possibilities for older adults' working longer.

The Effect of Immigration on Labor Market Transitions of Native-Born Unemployed in the United States

Unemployed workers are the group most likely to be affected by the presence of immigrants in their local labor markets since they are actively competing for job opportunities. Yet, little is known about the effect of immigration on labor market opportunities of the unemployed. Using a sample of unemployed native-born citizens from the monthly Current Population Survey from 2001 to 2015 and state level immigration statistics, we employ a multinomial model in the framework of a discrete hazard model with competing risks to examine the effects of immigration on the transition out of unemployment. The results suggest that immigration does not affect attrition not the probabilities of native-born workers finding a job. Instead, we find that immigration is associated with smaller probabilities of remaining unemployed.