The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on transportation employment: A comparative analysis

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic caused a variety of social, economic, and environmental changes. This paper examines the employment-related impacts of the pandemic on workers in the transportation industry compared to other industries, and within different transportation sectors. We estimated random effects logistic regression models to test the following three hypotheses using the monthly Current Population Survey micro-data. One, the transportation industry experienced a greater incidence of unemployment than other industries. Two, there is heterogeneity in employment impacts within the transportation sector. Three, specific sectors within the transportation industry experienced more employment impacts than other essential industries, as designated by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Phase 1a vaccination guidelines. Model results highlight that workers in the transportation sector were 20.6% more likely to be unemployed because of the pandemic than workers in non-transportation industries. Model results also indicate large intra-sector heterogeneities in employment impacts within the transportation sector. Taxi and limousine drivers were 28 times more likely to be unemployed compared to essential workers. Scenic and sightseeing transportation workers were 23.8 times more likely to be unemployed compared to essential workers. On the other end of the spectrum, however, postal workers and pipeline workers were 84% and 67% less likely to be unemployed compared to essential workers, respectively. From a policy perspective, these results suggest that attention to several aspects of transportation work is needed in the coming years to prepare for future interruptions to the transportation industry.