Average Monthly Maximum Research Articles

Predicting the Effect of Temperature Changes on Phlebotomus papatasi Activity, as the Main Vector of Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Iran

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) represents a significant vector‐borne disease in Iran. Our study examined the status of zoonotic CL (ZCL) in the country and forecasted the influence of global climate change on the monthly activity of Phlebotomus papatasi, the main vector of ZCL in the country. To predict the impact of climate change on the monthly activity of Ph. papatasi, we obtained the monthly average minimum and maximum temperatures for both the reference and future periods, using the MIROC6 model and two different shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. Based on our analysis, we found that Ph. papatasi can be active in Iran from March to November, although this may vary depending on the region. Our predictions suggest that the duration of Ph. papatasi’s activity may change following future changes in weather patterns. In different scenarios, the duration of the active season in various regions of the country extends by at least 1–2 months. This extension is likely more pronounced in the southern provinces. Additionally, our findings indicate a notable correlation between ZCL incidence, the presence of Ph. papatasi, and environmental factors in Ardestan, Esfahan Province. This study focuses on the impact of temperature on the activity and distribution of Ph. papatasi in Iran, which is a significant vector for transmitting ZCL. The study predicts that with future climate scenarios, especially SSP5‐8.5, the activity of this vector will start earlier, last longer, and might even occur throughout the year by the 2050s, thereby increasing the risk of ZCL transmission. Although temperature plays a dominant role in shaping the activity of Ph. papatasi, its influence is not consistent across Iran. The variation in different regions emphasizes the importance of implementing targeted public health approaches to address the changing risks of ZCL transmission due to evolving climate conditions. However, it acknowledges that certain factors such as land use and humidity have not been taken into account and requests additional research in these areas. It also calls for enhanced environmental monitoring and public health interventions.

Comparative analysis of temperature and precipitation changes in the city of Shumen for the periods 1971-1980 and 2013-2023

Abstract The main climatic elements and meteorological phenomena in the area of the meteorological observatory in the city of Shumen were studied for the periods 1971-1980 and 2013-2023. A detailed analysis of changes in temperatures and precipitation has been carried out, revealing the trends in their changes. Significant differences in temperature were found between the warm and cold part of the year. For the period 1971-1980, the average January temperatures are from -3.0°C to +2.5°C, and the average June temperatures from +18.4°C to +21.3°C, while for the period 2013-2023 they are, respectively, the average January temperatures from –2.8°C to +5.7°C, and the average June temperatures from +19.1°C to +22.3°C. Temperature analysis reveals warmer months of January and June for the period 2013-2023. The average annual temperature for the period 1971-1980 is +10.73°C., while for the period 2013-2023 it is +12.48°C, i.e. for the second period an increase of 1.75°C is reported. The average maximum monthly temperatures for the city of Shumen for the period 1971-1980 in the summer range from +17.6 to +21.8°C, while for the period 2013-2023 they are from +19.1 to +24.6°C., i.e. for the second period, an increase of about 2°C is reported. The same trend is observed for the average annual temperature amplitudes, which in the period 1971-1980 were from 20°C to 24.4°C, while for the period 2013-2023. are from 19.9°C to 25.8°C. The average annual precipitation for both periods is approximately the same (1971-1980 - 608.64 mm; 2013-2023 - 648.89 mm), but by year in the period 2013-2023 there are very large differences - from 418.4 mm (2019) to 1185.4 mm (2014). Four years of the 2013-2023 period: 2019, 2020, 2022, and 2023 can clearly be identified as years of significant drought. The complex analysis of the climate of the city of Shumen allowed in the final part of the study to draw conclusions about the prevailing types and classes of weather.

Effect of climate on emergency department admissions for renal colic: a comparative analysis of sedentary and non-sedentary lifestyles.

To investigate the impact of climate and seasonal variations on emergency department (ED) admissions for renal colic, while specifically comparing the differences between individuals with sedentary and non-sedentary lifestyles. A retrospective, single center study was conducted. Between the years 2017- 2020, medical records of patients admitted to the ED with renal colic, found to harbor ureteric stones on CT scans, were examined. Data on patients' occupational activities was collected through telephone questionnaires. Patients were categorized into two groups: sedentary and active. Precise weather data was obtained from the Israeli Meteorological Service website. The monthly average daily maximum temperatures were calculated. In the final sample of 560 participants, 285 were in the sedentary group, and 275 were in the active group. The study population consisted of 78.1% males and 21.9% females, with consistent gender ratios in both occupational groups. Prevalence of uric acid stones was higher in the sedentary group (p < 0.05). While there was a slight increase in admissions during the summer, seasonal distribution did not significantly differ among occupational groups. The study found no significant differences in admissions across different temperature ranges. Both groups exhibited a pattern of increased referrals during the summer and reduced referrals in the colder winter months. The baseline data revealed notable differences between the sedentary and active groups, particularly in the prevalence of uric acid stones. Climate factors, including temperature and seasonal variations, had limited impact on ED admissions for renal colic in patients with kidney stones, irrespective of their sedentary or active lifestyles. Both groups exhibited similar admission patterns, with a higher rate of admissions during the summer and a lower rate of admissions during the winter.

Forest fires in Irkutsk region as a possible source of benz(a)pyrene in the atmosphere of Bratsk

The aim of the study is to analyze wildfires in Irkutsk region and its districts in 2014-2020 as a possible source of benz(a)pyrene pollution of the atmospheric air in Bratsk. The dynamics of the number, the area of fires and their dependence on each other is explored. A comparative assessment of fires in the Bratsk district, Bratsk and its surrounding districts, and in Irkutsk region was carried out. The dynamics of reducing atmospheric air pollution with benz(a)pyrene in Bratsk during the study and the level of average carcinogen content in the atmosphere of 16 cities of the region was explored. Positive trends and linear dependences of the average annual and maximum monthly concentrations of benz(a)pyrene in the atmospheric air of Bratsk on the indicators of wildfires in the Bratsk district, a group of districts and in the entire region were found. A regular increase in the accuracy of the correlation between the content of benzo(a)pyrene in the atmosphere of Bratsk and the indicators of fires in a number of territories from Irkutsk region to Bratsk district was shown. Higher correlation coefficients were found for indicators of average annual concentrations of benzo(a)pyrene and for the number of fires compared, respectively, with maximum average monthly concentrations and indicators of natural burned areas. The average concentration of benzo(a)pyrene in the atmosphere of 16 cities did not depend on the indicators of fires in Irkutsk region. A conclusion is made about possible consequences of wildfires for air pollution in Bratsk with carcinogenic benzo(a)pyrene.

Recent changes in climate extremes in Guinea-Bissau

ABSTRACT Guinea-Bissau has experienced the tangible effects of climate change in recent years. An examination of the annual and monthly precipitation patterns from 1960-2020 indicates an overall decreasing trend in climatological series. In contrast, the monthly average maximum and minimum temperatures exhibit significant increasing trends during the same period. Analysing daily rainfall and maximum and minimum temperature leads us to conclude that rainfall and temperature patterns have evolved in different ways. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall test was used to assess trends in climate indices, and Sen’s slope estimator was used to detect the magnitude of trends. Despite the significant decrease in wet days, there has been an upward trend in rainfall over the 1981-2020 climatological series. Days with maximum temperatures of at least 30 and 35ºC have increased in all seasons with a very significant upward trend for 30ºC. On the other hand, absolute annual maximum temperatures have tended to decrease in Bolama and Bafatá by -0.25 and -0.17ºC per decade respectively. There has also been a decrease of 0.30ºC and 0.39ºC per decade in the minimum temperatures in Bolama and Bafata, i.e. the nights have been getting cooler, which somewhat contradicts the global trends generally reported for this same parameter.

Optical Properties and Possible Origins of Atmospheric Aerosols over LHAASO in the Eastern Margin of the Tibetan Plateau

The accuracy of cosmic ray observations by the Large High Altitude Air Shower Observatory Wide Field-of-View Cherenkov/Fluorescence Telescope Array (LHAASO-WFCTA) is influenced by variations in aerosols in the atmosphere. The solar photometer (CE318-T) is extensively utilized within the Aerosol Robotic Network as a highly precise and reliable instrument for aerosol measurements. With this CE318-T 23, 254 sets of valid data samples over 394 days from October 2020 to October 2022 at the LHAASO site were obtained. Data analysis revealed that the baseline Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and Ångström Exponent (AE) at 440–870 nm (AE440–870nm) of the aerosols were calculated to be 0.03 and 1.07, respectively, suggesting that the LHAASO site is among the most pristine regions on Earth. The seasonality of the mean AOD is in the order of spring &gt; summer &gt; autumn = winter. The monthly average maximum of AOD440nm occurred in April (0.11 ± 0.05) and the minimum was in December (0.03 ± 0.01). The monthly average of AE440–870nm exhibited slight variations. The seasonal characterization of aerosol types indicated that background aerosol predominated in autumn and winter, which is the optimal period for the absolute calibration of the WFCTA. Additionally, the diurnal daytime variations of AOD and AE across the four seasons are presented. Our analysis also indicates that the potential origins of aerosol over the LHAASO in four seasons were different and the atmospheric aerosols with higher AOD probably originate mainly from Northern Myanmar and Northeast India regions. These results are presented for the first time, providing a detailed analysis of aerosol seasonality and origins, which have not been thoroughly documented before in this region, also enriching the valuable materials on aerosol observation in the Hengduan Mountains and Tibetan Plateau.

Floristic diversity of vascular plants in the Mimouna Forest (north-western Algeria)

In arid and semi-arid areas, wild vegetation is a very important natural resource and provides various ecosystem services, such as environmental adjustment functions. It is therefore important to manage and protect plant diversity in these areas. We investigated the Mimouna Forest in the Algerian Saida Province, characterized by a Mediterranean-type climate with maximum average monthly temperature of 27.1°C, minimum of 8.3°C and annual rainfall of 345 mm. We described and analysed the species diversity of vascular plants in this area. The floristic inventory was carried out using a subjective sampling method. This allowed us to identify 93 species belonging to 80 genera and 33 botanical families. The major families were the Asteraceae (16%) and Poaceae (14%). The analysis of plant life-forms showed the dominance of therophytes (36%) and hemicryptophytes (28%). On the phytogeographic level, the prevailing chorological elements were of Mediterranean affinity (54% in total). Endemic taxa accounted for 9% of the flora. The Shannon index was moderately high (3.62) and 13% of the recorded species were rare, including 5 protected by Algerian law.

Climate Change’s Impacts on Drought in Upper Zab Basin, Iraq: A Case Study

Iraq has a semiarid and desert climate. Also, it is predicted to be more susceptible to global warming effects. In the present study, daily climatic data from the past and projected future of the Upper Zab Basin, located in northern Iraq and considered an example of arid and semiarid climate conditions, were simulated using LARS-WG 6.0, i.e., a stochastic weather generator. The model also estimated daily rainfall and temperature. Using the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 main emission scenarios, the future climate throughout the current century was estimated utilizing the MIROC5, CanESM2, HadGEM2-ES, ESM1-M, and CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 general circulation models (GCMs). This estimation was performed considering the significant uncertainty of future climate estimates. The model, constructed using thirty years' worth of historical data, was validated using climate data from the Upper Zab Basin in northern Iraq (1990–2021). According to the data, the average monthly maximum temperature will decline by 2.15–6.20 °C under RCP4.5 and 1.81–6.10 °C under RCP8.5 by the end of the twenty-first era for the corresponding upstream and downstream sub-basins. Precipitation projections from all GCMs showed varying patterns. Given that some models, like CanESM2, expected a rise in precipitation, while others, like MIROC5, forecasted a future with no change in precipitation or a falling trend, which illustrates the significant level of uncertainty in precipitation forecast when only one model was utilized. Also, the downstream sub-basin suffered the most during the 1999–2000 and 2007–2008 droughts, with average RDIst values of -1.97 and -1.64, respectively. However, the upstream sub-basin had moderate to severe droughts in 1999–2000 and 2007–2008, with average RDIst values of -0.81 and -1.84, respectively. The water available in the research location will be significantly impacted by variations in rainfall and temperature.

Study of Global Horizontal and Vertical Solar Irradiance Components Under Different Sky Conditions for Sustainable Building Design In Bali Of Indonesia

The study of global and vertical solar irradiance components under different sky conditions is very important for building design applications. This research has been carried out by analyzing the components of solar radiation based on global horizontal irradiance (GHI) data, and global vertical irradiance for east, west, north, and south oriented. Observational data was acquired for one year starting from July 2022 to June 2023 in Jembrana-Bali of Indonesia. The solar radiation component has been analyzed based on sub-diurnal (daytime) and annual patterns. The clearness index (Kt) was calculated based on the ratio of extra-terrestrial solar radiation to global solar radiation measured at the surface. Sun-path analysis was carried out by considering the relationship of the zenith angle, azimuth angle, and the intensity of each solar radiation component to changes in time. The results show that in all-sky conditions, the average monthly maximum global horizontal irradiance occurs in January at 432.4 W/m², while the minimum monthly average global horizontal irradiance occurs in July at 327.9 W/m². The clearness index statistic shows that the hourly average ranges from 0.12 to 0.68 with an average of 0.47. Based on sun-path analysis, east, north, and west orientations receive more solar radiation in the Jembrana-Bali area. The findings from the study provide important information for architects, engineers, and policymakers that can be used for sustainable building design and building energy planning.

Evaluation of climate change impact on plants and hydrology

Climate change (CC) is the menace of the hour impacting every facet of human existence. Regional CC and its impact studies are crucial in that they contribute to global change. The current study aims to investigate the prevalence of CC in Charsadda, Pakistan and its impact on vegetation and hydrology of the region to understand microclimate variability contribution to global CC. Utilizing local climate data for 20 years (2001–2020), Modified Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope statistics were employed to determine monthly and seasonal trends in climate variables. Significant changing climate variables were regressed on Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite dataset viz. normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Due to the prominent climate factor impacting vegetation, NDVI was further correlated to MODIS land surface temperature (LST). Floods being the conspicuous climate calamity were mapped for 2005 and 2010 using satellites Landsat 5 and 7 dataset viz. normalized difference water index (NDWI) with flood risk assessment by watershed delineation. The findings revealed significant (p &amp;lt; 0.05) variability in climate variables (average monthly and summer maximum temperature, and average monthly and summer precipitation) that are driving CC and impacting vegetation and hydrology in the region. Temperature and solar radiation affect NDVI adversely while precipitation and relative humidity has positive impact on vegetation. NDVI varied greatly spatiotemporally, often increasing but worsening in some areas (Shabqadar, Abazai, Palai and Charsadda city with NDVI = 0.1–0.3) of the study region as a result of extreme weather events. Temporally, NDVI improved with an overall positive trend with a stage (2007–2016) of noticeable zigzag fluctuation. Spatial grids with higher LST (&amp;gt;40°C) were either devoid of or with sparse NDVI (&amp;lt;0.3) presenting global warming as peril to vegetation. NDWI maps (2005, 2010 floods) indicate that after floods wreaked havoc on the region altering the vegetation pattern revealing heavy irregular precipitation as the next to temperature in jeopardizing vegetation of the region. Lower elevation regions along the Swat and Kabul Rivers with a greater risk of flooding were identified by watershed delineation. The study suggests that local governments and stakeholders implement CC mitigation strategies and plans for vegetation restoration, flood alerts with post-flood management for regional sustainable development.

Future perspective of water budget in the event of three scenarios in Afghanistan using the WEAP program

In this study, WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning System) software was used for the water resources management and water budget calculation of the Balkh River Basin, the sub-basin of the Northern River Basin in Afghanistan. The water resources in the basin and 10 demand sites (irrigation, drinking water, etc.) were introduced to the software, and precipitation, evaporation, runoff, etc., were obtained from stream gauging stations for long years (2010–2021). Hydrological data and information on population, irrigation lands, and drinking water use were entered. Scenario-1 (current situation) was created by entering the existing data in the created model. Subsequently, the long-term monthly average maximum and minimum values of precipitation, evaporation, runoff, and similar values were added to the current scenario. Forecast results between the years (2022–2050) were created with Scenario-2 (optimistic case) and Scenario-3 (pessimistic case), and analyzes were carried out in three different situations, and the results were examined. According to the analyzes, the current water potential found by the inclusion of surface water and groundwater from the Mezar-i-Sharif Region in the Balkh River Basin is 4747 million m3 annually; it has been determined that this value will be approximately 9741 million m3 in 2050 in the optimistic scenario and 1811 million m3 in the pessimistic scenario. It has been determined that the water need, which cannot be met as 29,394 million m3 in the current situation, approximately 14103 m3 in the optimistic scenario, and 49,979 million m3 in the pessimistic scenario in 2050. While the current met need of the Balkh River Basin is 7.81 % with losses, it has been calculated as 27.14 % in an optimistic situation and 1.71 % in a pessimistic situation for 2050. While the current met needs of the Basin, excluding losses, is 12 %, it is calculated as 33.9 % in the optimistic situation and 3.1 % in the pessimistic situation for 2050. It is understood that Afghanistan's water resources should be handled with an integrated water resources management (IWRM) approach, and future water resource planning should be made by considering human needs, environmental impact, and government visions. Water resources should be planned most efficiently by controlling the amount of undocumented wells, drilling, and detecting the losses and leakages in the existing systems with certain methods.

Boosting the energy output of an On-Grid solar PV system using a novel techniques

Two techniques have been used in this study to boost energy output of an on-grid PV system. Boosting energy output is achieved by educating the PV solar system performance parameters. Planar concentrators and cooling are two techniques used to boost energy output. The current solar PV system is placed in Baghdad/Al-Taji. This work includes improving the following performance parameters: performance ratio (PR), array efficiency, array yield, electrical energy, as well as solar irradiation. All of these improvements are accomplished by improving solar irradiance using planar concentrators (made of aluminum metal) and cooling (via water). The monthly daily average of energy produced for enhanced and reference PV modules is 14.2 kWh and 11.1 kWh, respectively. The monthly daily average of the array yield to the enhanced PV modules and reference PV modules is 7.14 kWh/kWp and 5.61 kWh/kWp, respectively. The monthly daily average of solar irradiation to the enhanced and reference PV modules is 7.71kWh/m2 and 6.101kWh/m2, respectively. The monthly daily average efficiency and performance ratio of the enhanced and reference PV modules are 14.3% &amp; 93.6%, and 13.9% &amp; 91.1%, respectively. The maximum average monthly temperatures of the enhanced and reference PV modules are in July, at 48.5OC and 57.4OC respectively, where the ambient air temperature is 42.1OC. The novel aspect of this work is the successful optimization of the performance (PR) parameters of an on-grid PV system using the new equations. Besides from designing a novel system to improve the performance of solar PV modules of the second generation (CIGS).

Climate-Related Risk Modeling of Banana Xanthomonas Wilt Disease Incidence in the Cropland Area of Rwanda.

Banana Xanthomonas wilt (BXW) is a major threat to banana production in Rwanda, causing up to 100% yield loss. There are no biological or chemical control measures, and little is known about the potential direction and magnitude of its spread; hence, cultural control efforts are reactive rather than proactive. In this study, we assessed BXW risk under current and projected climates to guide early warning and control by applying the maximum entropy (Maxent) model on 1,022 georeferenced BXW datapoints and 20 environmental variables. We evaluated the significance of variables and mapped potential risk under current and future climates to assess spatial dynamics of the disease distribution. BXW occurrence was reliably predicted (mean validation AUC values ranging from 0.79 to 0.85). Precipitation of the coldest quarter, average maximum monthly temperature, annual precipitation, and elevation were the strongest predictors, which were responsible for 22.1, 13, 12.6, and 9.4% of the observed incidence variability, respectively, while mean temperature of the coldest quarter had the highest gain in isolation. Furthermore, the most susceptible regions (western, northern, and southern Rwanda) were characterized by elevation (1,350 to 2,000 m), annual precipitation (900 to 1,700 mm), and average temperature (14 to 20°C), among other variables, suggesting that a consistent, rainy, and warm climate is more favorable for BXW spread. Under the future climate, the risk was predicted to increase and spread to other regions. We conclude that climate change will likely exacerbate BXW-related losses of banana land area and yield under the influence of temperature and moisture. Our findings support evidence-based targeting of extension service delivery to farmers and national early warning for timely action.

Sunshine and Temperature Based Models for Estimating Global Solar Radiation in Maiduguri, Nigeria

Nine existing sunshine based models and three existing temperature based models were evaluated and compared to ascertain the most suitable models for estimating global solar radiation in Maiduguri; the most suitable sunshine based and most suitable temperature based models were also compared. The measured monthly average daily global solar radiation, sunshine hours, maximum and minimum temperature meteorological parameters during the period of thirty one years (1980 – 2010) was utilized and the evaluated models were tested statistically using validation indicators of coefficient of determination, Mean Bias Error, Root Mean Square Error, Mean Percentage Error, t – test, Nash – Sutcliffe Equation and Index of Agreement. The results indicated that the linear exponential sunshine based model and the logarithmic temperature based model were found more accurate for global solar radiation estimation in Maiduguri as compared to other evaluated models. Furthermore, the logarithmic temperature based model was found more accurate for estimating global solar radiation as compared to the linear exponential sunshine based model, and this was testified from the figure showing the comparison between the recommended sunshine based and temperature based models in which the recommended temperature based model depicts the best fitting with the measured global solar radiation data.

Modeling growth curves to estimate the suitable slaughter age for the Vietnamese Tap Na pig

Tap Na is an indigenous pig breed which plays an essential role in livestock development in the mountainous Cao Bang province, Vietnam. This study aimed to find the best model to describe the growth of Tap Na pigs, and then predict the live weight, weight gain, and suitable slaughter age by using the best growth model. The body weights of 100 pigs (50 castrated males and 50 females) were measured every month from birth to 10 months of age. The data for growth performance were analyzed in R using eight mathematical functions (von Bertalanffy, Bridges, Janoschek, Gompertz, Logistic, Lopez, Richards, and Weibull). The best models to describe the growth of Tap Na castrated males and females were Gompertz and Richards, respectively. The upper asymptotic body weights (α) were estimated to be 96.00 kg (Logistic) to 192.66 kg (von Bertalanffy) for castrated males, whereas these α values for females were from 102.42 kg (Logistic) to 167.82 kg (von Bertalanffy). The predicted ages at the beginning of the growth acceleration phase were different between castrated males (2.25 to 2.85 months) and females (2.29 to 3.39 months). Consequently, the inflection points and estimated ages at the end of the growth deceleration phase were also different between castrated males and females. The maximum absolute growth rate (monthly gains) occurred at 6 months of age for castrated males and 7 months for females. The maximum average monthly gains were recorded at 8.84 and 10.60 months of age for castrated males and females, respectively. This suggested the suitable slaughter ages are 8.84 months for Tap Na castrated males (82.99 kg) and 10.60 months for females (95.25 kg).

Climate change effect on water temperature and evaporation in Lake Qarun

ABSTRACT Climate change can have significant effects on the water and heat budgets of lakes and reservoirs. This study examined the effect of climate change on Lake Qarun through analyzing the temporal variation in lake surface temperature and evaporation from the lake. The analysis was based on the remote-sensing dataset MOD11A1 and the ERA5 climate reanalysis dataset. Daily surface temperatures for 1-km MOD11A1 pixels were filtered to remove outliers, averaged to obtain mean lake temperature, and then aggregated to compute the monthly average lake temperature. Lake evaporation was estimated by applying an un-mixing algorithm to ERA5 evaporation fluxes for mixed land-lake pixels and land-only pixels. The resulting monthly evaporation from the lake was corrected using a regression model based on evaporation estimates available in the literature for Lake Qarun. The regression model performance was confirmed through the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient, correlation coefficient, and root mean square error. Over the period 1980 to 2019, findings show that annual evaporation ranged between 140 and 190 cm/year. Maximum average monthly evaporation for the study period is 21 cm in July while the minimum is 6.7 cm in February from 1980 to 2019. For the average lake surface temperature, it varied between ~31.9 and 33.9°C over the period 2000 to 2019. For the same time period, average maximum and minimum monthly temperatures were 44°C in August and 20.1°C in January. It is concluded that the average increase in evaporation and lake surface temperature is 37 mm/decade and 0.4°C/decade, respectively. The increase in both lake surface temperature and evaporation is likely due to climate change effects. However, using datasets with a larger temporal record for lake surface temperature, further studies can be applied for confirmation. Also, further confirmation can be obtained by applying the same analysis to other lakes in Egypt.

The Role of Crop Management Practices and Adaptation Options to Minimize the Impact of Climate Change on Maize (Zea mays L.) Production for Ethiopia

Climate change impact assessment along with adaptation measures are key for reducing the impact of climate change on crop production. The impact of current and future climate change on maize production was investigated, and the adaptation role of shifting planting dates, different levels of nitrogen fertilizer rates, and choice of maize cultivar as possible climate change adaptation strategies were assessed. The study was conducted in three environmentally contrasting sites in Ethiopia, namely: Ambo, Bako, and Melkassa. Future climate data were obtained from seven general circulation models (GCMs), namely: CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, CSIRO-MK3-6-0, EC-EARTH, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-MR, and MIROC5 for the highest representative concentration pathway (RCP 8.5). GCMs were bias-corrected at site level using a quantile-quantile mapping method. APSIM, AquaCrop, and DSSAT crop models were used to simulate the baseline (1995–2017) and 2030s (2021–2050) maize yields. The result indicated that the average monthly maximum air temperature in the 2030s could increase by 0.3–1.7 °C, 0.7–2.2 °C, and 0.8–1.8 °C in Ambo, Bako, and Melkassa, respectively. For the same sites, the projected increase in average monthly minimum air temperature was 0.6–1.7 °C, 0.8–2.3 °C, and 0.6–2.7 °C in that order. While monthly total precipitation for the Kiremt season (June to September) is projected to increase by up to 55% (365 mm) for Ambo and 75% (241 mm) for Bako respectively, whereas a significant decrease in monthly total precipitation is projected for Melkassa by 2030. Climate change would reduce maize yield by an average of 4% and 16% for Ambo and Melkassa respectively, while it would increase by 2% for Bako in 2030 if current maize cultivars were grown with the same crop management practice as the baseline under the future climate. At higher altitudes, early planting of maize cultivars between 15 May and 1 June would result in improved relative yields in the future climate. Fertilizer levels increment between 23 and 150 kg ha−1 would result in progressive improvement of yields for all maize cultivars when combined with early planting for Ambo. For a mid-altitude, planting after 15 May has either no or negative effect on maize yield. Early planting combined with a nitrogen fertilizer level of 23–100 kg ha−1 provided higher relative yields under the future climate. Delayed planting has a negative influence on maize production for Bako under the future climate. For lower altitudes, late planting would have lower relative yields compared to early planting. Higher fertilizer levels (100–150 kg ha−1) would reduce yield reductions under the future climate, but this varied among maize cultivars studied. Generally, the future climate is expected to have a negative impact on maize yield and changes in crop management practices can alleviate the impacts on yield.

Impacts of Climate Change on Area and Production Under Different Crops in Bhandara District: Central India

Abstract: The present study Impacts of Climate Change on Area and production under different crops in Bhandara district, Central India. The hydrological parameters such as rainfall, drainage analysis, topographic parameters, and land-use patterns were evaluated and interpreted for district management of the area. This has been done using the sofware of the Arc map module in Arc GIS 9.3 and ERDAS Imagine 9.2 satellite image analysis. The hydrological investigation shows that the climate of the basin is characterized by hot summer from March to May followed by a rainy season from June to September. The postmonsoon season is also observed in the month of October. The annual mean rainfall range varies from 1,000 to 1,400 mm. The temperature rises rapidly from March to May. The monthly average maximum temperature rises to 47.50 Celsius in the month of May. In summer, the nights are cool compared to the scorching heat of the day. Bhandara district receives more rainfall than other districts of Maharashtra. The main crop here is paddy (rice). And 70% of agriculture is rain dependent. Total average rainfall for five years in seven districts of Bhandara district was recorded. Considering the total average rainfall in 5 years, Lakhandur taluka has the highest rainfall while Tumsar taluka has the lowest

Mapping and Analysis of Monthly Average Maximum and Minimum Air Temperature Distribution of Muğla Province in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) Environment with IDW Method

Muğla province, which is located in Southwest Anatolia and has a surface area of 13,338 km2, generally has a mountainous and rough terrain. In this study, it is aimed to map and analyze the distribution of monthly and annual maximum and minimum average temperature values of Muğla province by using the Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation method. For this purpose, meteorological data of 13 stations of the General Directorate of Meteorology in Muğla and the stations of Gölhisar, Bozdoğan, Kaş, Elmalı, which are close to the borders of the province, were used. The average values of the annual and monthly maximum and minimum temperatures of these stations were transferred to the ArcGIS environment with the help of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and their distribution was mapped with the IDW method. According to these maps, the highest average annual temperature in Muğla is in Milas and its surroundings, while the lowest is the provincial borders in the northeast of Muğla center and Seydikemer district. These two places are followed by Datça district, which is located on a long peninsula. The places with the highest annual minimum average temperatures are around Datça and Marmaris districts, while the lowest is the Burdur provincial border in the northeast of Kavaklıdere and Seydikemer. The maximum average temperature in the province is July (between 41.6-41.1°C in Milas and Köyceğiz), and the lowest is January (between 14-17°C in Muğla center and Kavaklıdere). The minimum average temperatures in the province are highest in June (between 37.7-34.6°C in Marmaris), and the lowest in January (between -7.9 and -6.6°C in Kavaklıdere). Elevation conditions, maritime influence and aspect conditions, and the intrusion of thermal pressure areas, especially in summer, have been effective in the distribution of maximum and minimum average temperature values in the province. These values may also vary depending on time during the year

Impacts of urbanization on air quality and the related health risks in a city with complex terrain

Abstract. Urbanization affects air pollutants via urban expansion and emission growth, thereby inevitably changing the health risks involved with air pollutants. However, the health risks related to urbanization are rarely estimated, especially for cities with complex terrain. In this study, a highly urbanized city with severe air pollution and complex terrain (Chengdu) is selected to explore this issue. The effects of urban expansion are further compared with emission growth because air quality management is usually achieved by regulating anthropogenic emissions. Air pollution in Chengdu was mainly caused by PM2.5 and O3 from 2015 to 2021. PM2.5 pollution tended to appear in cold months (November to February) owing to the blocking of air and the stable atmospheric layer, whereas O3 pollution was likely to occur in warm months (April to August) that experience high-temperature and strong-sunlight conditions and are dominated by high-pressure systems. From 2015 to 2021, the 7-year annual average of premature mortality from all non-accidental causes (ANACs) due to PM2.5 and O3 was 9386 (95 % confidence interval (CI) of 6542–11 726) and 8506 (95 % CI of 4817–11 882), respectively. Based on the characteristics of PM2.5 and O3, six numerical experiments were conducted to investigate the impacts of urban expansion and emission growth on the health risks related to air pollutants. The results show that urban land use led to an increase in the air temperature and boundary layer height compared with cropland, which was conducive to the diffusion of PM2.5. Thus, the monthly average surface PM2.5 concentrations decreased by 10.8 µg m−3 (7.6 %) in January. However, the monthly average daily maximum 8 h average (MDA8) O3 concentrations increased by 10.6 µg m−3 (6.0 %) in July owing to the stronger photochemical production and better vertical mixing during daytime. In this case, premature mortality from ANACs due to PM2.5 decreased by 171 (95 % CI of 129–200, or about 6.9 %) in January, and that due to O3 increased by 203 (95 % CI of 122–268, or about 9.5 %) in July. As for the effects of emission growth, the monthly average PM2.5 and MDA8 O3 concentrations increased by 23.9 (16.8 %) and 4.8 µg m−3 (2.7 %), respectively, when anthropogenic emissions were taken into account. Premature mortality from ANACs due to PM2.5 and O3 then increased by 388 (95 % CI of 291–456, or about 15.7 %) and 87 (95 % CI of 54–112, or about 4.1 %), respectively. From a health risk perspective, the effects of urban land use on the health risks related to PM2.5 are about half that of anthropogenic emissions, whereas the effects of urban land use on the health risks related to O3 can be 2 times that of anthropogenic emissions. This emphasizes that, in addition to regulating anthropogenic emissions, urban planning is also important for urban air quality, especially for secondary pollutants like O3.