Monte Carlo Microsimulation Research Articles

Cost-Effectiveness of Arthroscopic Partial Meniscectomy and Physical Therapy for Degenerative Meniscal Tear.

ObjectiveWe examined the cost‐effectiveness of treatment strategies for concomitant meniscal tear and knee osteoarthritis (OA) involving arthroscopic partial meniscectomy surgery and physical therapy (PT).MethodsWe used the Osteoarthritis Policy Model, a validated Monte Carlo microsimulation, to compare three strategies, 1) PT‐only, 2) immediate surgery, and 3) PT + optional surgery, for participants whose pain persists following initial PT. We modeled a cohort with baseline meniscal tear, OA, and demographics from the Meniscal Tear in Osteoarthritis Research (MeTeOR) trial of arthroscopic partial meniscectomy versus PT. We estimated risks and costs of arthroscopic partial meniscectomy complications and accounted for heightened OA progression post surgery using published data. We estimated surgery use rates and treatment efficacies using MeTeOR data. We considered a 5‐year time horizon, discounted costs, and quality‐adjusted life‐years (QALYs) 3% per year and conducted sensitivity analyses. We report incremental cost‐effectiveness ratios.ResultsRelative to PT‐only, PT + optional surgery added 0.0651 QALY and $2,010 over 5 years (incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio = $30,900 per QALY). Relative to PT + optional surgery, immediate surgery added 0.0065 QALY and $3080 (incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio = $473,800 per QALY). Incremental cost‐effectiveness ratios were sensitive to optional surgery efficacy in the PT + optional surgery strategy. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, PT + optional surgery was cost‐effective in 51% of simulations at willingness‐to‐pay thresholds of both $50,000 per QALY and $100,000 per QALY.ConclusionFirst‐line arthroscopic partial meniscectomy has a prohibitively high incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio. Under base case assumptions, second‐line arthroscopic partial meniscectomy offered to participants with persistent pain following initial PT is cost‐effective at willingness‐to‐pay thresholds between $31,000 and $473,000 per QALY. Our analyses suggest that arthroscopic partial meniscectomy can be a high‐value treatment option for patients with meniscal tear and OA when performed following an initial PT course and should remain a covered treatment option.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of statins for the treatment of hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

A recent systematic review and meta-analysis reporting on thirteen published cohorts investigating 110,078 patients demonstrated that patients who were administered statins after their COVID-19 diagnosis and hospitalization were had a lower risk of mortality. While these findings are encouraging, given competing COVID-19 treatment approaches, it is unclear if statin use should be prioritized and if its use is a cost-effective treatment options for hospitalized COVID-19 patients. In this study, we report on a cost-effectiveness analysis of statin-containing treatment regimens for hospitalized COVID-19 patients. A Markov model was used to compare statin use and no statin use among hospitalized COVID-19 patients from a United States healthcare perspective. The cycle length was one week, with a time horizon of 4 weeks. A Monte Carlo microsimulation with 20,000 samples were used. All analyses were conducted using TreeAge Pro Healthcare Version 2021 R1.1. The mean cost for patients receiving statins in addition to usual care was $31,623 (SD $20,331), whereas the mean cost for patients not receiving statins was $33,218 (SD $25,440). The mean effectiveness for the two cohorts were 1.73 (SD 0.96) and 1.71 (SD 1.00), respectively. This analysis demonstrated that treatment of hospitalized COVID-19 patients with statins was both cheaper and more effective than treatment without statins; statin-containing therapy dominates over non-statin therapy. Statin medications for the treatment of COVID-19 should be further investigated in randomized controlled trials, especially considering its cost-effective nature. Optimistically and pending the results of future randomized trials, statins should be considered for use broadly for the treatment of hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

The Clinical and Cost Utility of Cardiac Catheterizations in Infants with Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia

To evaluate the cost-utility of catheterization-obligate treatment in preterm infants with pulmonary hypertension, as compared with empiric initiation of sildenafil based on echocardiographic findings alone. A Markov state transition model was constructed to simulate the clinical scenario of a preterm infant with echocardiographic evidence of pulmonary hypertension associated with bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) and without congenital heart disease under consideration for the initiation of pulmonary vasodilator therapy via one of two modeled treatment strategies-empiric or catheterization-obligate. Transitional probabilities, costs and utilities were extracted from the literature. Forecast quality-adjusted life-years was the metric for strategy effectiveness. Sensitivity analyses for each variable were performed. A 1000-patient Monte Carlo microsimulation was used to test the durability of our findings. The catheterization-obligate strategy resulted in an increased cost of $10 778 and 0.02 fewer quality-adjusted life-years compared with the empiric treatment strategy. Empiric treatment remained the more cost-effective paradigm across allscenariosmodeled through one-way sensitivity analyses and the Monte Carlo microsimulation (cost-effective in 98% of cases). Empiric treatment with sildenafil in infants with pulmonary hypertension associated with BPD is a superior strategy with both decreased costs and increased effectiveness when compared with catheterization-obligate treatment. These findings suggest that foregoing catheterization before the initiation of sildenafil is a reasonable strategy in preterm infants with uncomplicated pulmonary hypertension associated with BPD.

Cost-effectiveness of Artificial Intelligence as a Decision-Support System Applied to the Detection and Grading of Melanoma, Dental Caries, and Diabetic Retinopathy

To assess the cost-effectiveness of artificial intelligence (AI) for supporting clinicians in detecting and grading diseases in dermatology, dentistry, and ophthalmology. AI has been referred to as a facilitator for more precise, personalized, and safer health care, and AI algorithms have been reported to have diagnostic accuracies at or above the average physician in dermatology, dentistry, and ophthalmology. This economic evaluation analyzed data from 3 Markov models used in previous cost-effectiveness studies that were adapted to compare AI vs standard of care to detect melanoma on skin photographs, dental caries on radiographs, and diabetic retinopathy on retina fundus imaging. The general US and German population aged 50 and 12 years, respectively, as well as individuals with diabetes in Brazil aged 40 years were modeled over their lifetime. Monte Carlo microsimulations and sensitivity analyses were used to capture lifetime efficacy and costs. An annual cycle length was chosen. Data were analyzed between February 2021 and August 2021. AI vs standard of care. Association of AI with tooth retention-years for dentistry and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for individuals in dermatology and ophthalmology; diagnostic costs. In 1000 microsimulations with 1000 random samples, AI as a diagnostic-support system showed limited cost-savings and gains in tooth retention-years and QALYs. In dermatology, AI showed mean costs of $750 (95% CI, $608-$970) and was associated with 86.5 QALYs (95% CI, 84.9-87.9 QALYs), while the control showed higher costs $759 (95% CI, $618-$970) with similar QALY outcome. In dentistry, AI accumulated costs of €320 (95% CI, €299-€341) (purchasing power parity [PPP] conversion, $429 [95% CI, $400-$458]) with 62.4 years per tooth retention (95% CI, 60.7-65.1 years). The control was associated with higher cost, €342 (95% CI, €318-€368) (PPP, $458; 95% CI, $426-$493) and fewer tooth retention-years (60.9 years; 95% CI, 60.5-63.1 years). In ophthalmology, AI accrued costs of R $1321 (95% CI, R $1283-R $1364) (PPP, $559; 95% CI, $543-$577) at 8.4 QALYs (95% CI, 8.0-8.7 QALYs), while the control was less expensive (R $1260; 95% CI, R $1222-R $1303) (PPP, $533; 95% CI, $517-$551) and associated with similar QALYs. Dominance in favor of AI was dependent on small differences in the fee paid for the service and the treatment assumed after diagnosis. The fee paid for AI was a factor in patient preferences in cost-effectiveness between strategies. The findings of this study suggest that marginal improvements in diagnostic accuracy when using AI may translate into a marginal improvement in outcomes. The current evidence supporting AI as decision support from a cost-effectiveness perspective is limited; AI should be evaluated on a case-specific basis to capture not only differences in costs and payment mechanisms but also treatment after diagnosis.

Cost-effectiveness of AI for caries detection: randomized trial

Objectives: We assessed the cost-effectiveness of AI-supported detection of proximal caries in a randomized controlled clustered cross-over superiority trial.Methods: Twenty-three dentists were sampled to assess 20 bitewings; 10 were randomly evaluated supported by an AI-based software (dentalXrai Pro 1.0.4, dentalXrai Ltd, Berlin, Germany) and the other 10 without AI support. The reference test had been established by four independent experts and an additional review. We evaluated the proportion of true and false positive and negative detections and the treatment decisions assigned to each detection (non-invasive, micro-invasive, invasive). Cost-effectiveness was assessed using a mixed public-private-payer perspective in German healthcare. Using the accuracy and treatment decision data from the trial, a Markov simulation model was populated and posterior permanent teeth in initially 31-years old individuals followed over their lifetime. The model allowed extrapolation from the initial detection and therapy to treatment success, re-treatments and, eventually, tooth loss and replacement, capturing long-term effectiveness (tooth retention) and costs (cumulative in Euro). Costs were estimated using the German public and private fee catalogues. Monte-Carlo microsimulations were used and incremental cost-effectiveness at different willingness-to-pay ceiling thresholds assessed.Results: In the trial, AI-supported detection was significantly more sensitive than detection without AI. However, in the AI group, lesions were more often treated invasively. As a result, AI and no AI showed identical effectiveness (tooth retention for a mean (2.5-97.5%) 49 (48-51) years) and nearly identical costs (AI: 330 (250-409) Euro, no AI: 330 (248-410) Euro). 41% simulations found AI and 43% no AI to be more cost-effective. The resulting cost-effectiveness remained uncertain regardless of a payer's willingness-to-pay.Conclusions: Higher accuracy of AI did not lead to higher cost-effectiveness, as more invasive treatment approaches generated costs and diminished possible effectiveness advantages.Clinical significance: The cost-effectiveness of AI could be improved by supporting not only caries detection, but also subsequent management.

Cost Effectiveness of Mailed Outreach Programs for Colorectal Cancer Screening: Analysis of a Pragmatic, Randomized Trial

Clinical guidelines for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening suggest use of either stool-based tests or colonoscopy - modalities that differ in recommended screening intervals, adherence, and costs. We know little about the long-term cost differences in population-health outreach strategies to promote these strategies. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis to compare 2 mailed outreach strategies to increase CRC screening from a pragmatic, randomized clinical trial: mailed fecal immunochemical test (FIT) kits vs invitations to complete a screening colonoscopy. We built a 10-year Markov chain Monte Carlo microsimulation model to account for differences in screening intervals, adherence, and costs. Mailed FIT kits had a lower 10-year average per-person cost of screening relative to colonoscopy invitations ($1139 vs $1725) but with 10.89 fewer months of compliance and 60 fewer advanced neoplasia detected (37 advanced adenomas and 23 CRC). Incremental cost effectiveness ratios for colonoscopy invitations compared with mailed FIT kits were $55.23, $15.84, and $25.48 per additional covered month, advanced adenoma, and CRC, respectively. Although FIT was the preferred strategy at low willingness-to-pay thresholds, the 2 strategies were equal at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $41.31 per covered month gained. Mailed FIT or colonoscopy invitations are both options to improve CRC screening completion and advanced neoplasia detection, and the choice of outreach strategy may differ by a health system's willingness-to-pay threshold. Mailed FIT kits are less expensive than colonoscopy invitations but result in fewer months of screening compliance and advanced neoplasia detected.

Trimodal therapy vs. radical cystectomy for muscle-invasive bladder cancer: A Canadian cost-effectiveness analysis.

Trimodal therapy (TMT) is a suitable alternative to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) and radical cystectomy (RC) for patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC). In this study, we conducted a cost-effectiveness evaluation of RC±NAC vs. TMT for MIBC in the universal and publicly funded Canadian healthcare system. We developed a Markov model with Monte-Carlo microsimulations. Rates and probabilities of transitioning within different health states (e.g., cure, locoregional recurrence, distant metastasis, death) were input in the model after a scoped literature review. Two main scenarios were considered: 1) academic center; and 2) populational-level. Results were reported in life-years gained (LYG), quality-adjusted life years (QALY), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). A sensitivity analysis was performed. A total of 20 000 patients were simulated. For the academic center model, TMT was associated with increased effectiveness (both in LYG and QALY) at a higher cost compared to RC±NAC at five and 10 years. This resulted in an ICER of $19 746/QALY per patient undergoing the TMT strategy at 10 years of followup. For the populational-level model, RC±NAC was associated with higher effectiveness at 10 years, with an ICER of $3319/QALY per patient. This study was limited by heterogeneity within the studies used to build the model. In this study, TMT performed in academic centers was cost-effective compared to RC±NAC, with higher effectiveness at a higher cost. On the other hand, RC±NAC was considered cost-effective compared to TMT at the populational-level. Further studies are needed to confirm these results.

Field Trauma Triage among Older Adults: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

National guidelines for prehospital trauma triage aim to identify seriously injured patients who may benefit from transport to trauma centers. These guidelines have poor sensitivity for serious injury among older adults. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of a high-sensitivity triage strategy for older adults. We developed a Markov chain Monte Carlo microsimulation model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of high-sensitivity field triage criteria among older adults compared with current practice. The model used a retrospective cohort of 3621 community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries who were transported by emergency medical services after an acute injury in 7 counties in the northwestern US during January to December 2011. These data informed model estimates of emergency medical services triage assessment, hospital transport patterns, and outcomes from index hospitalization up to 1 year after discharge. Outcomes beyond 1 year were modeled using published literature. Differences in cost and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were calculated for both strategies using a lifetime analytical horizon. We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (cost per QALY gained) to assess cost-effectiveness, which we defined using a threshold of less than $100,000 per QALY. High-sensitivity trauma field triage for older adults would produce a small incremental benefit in average trauma system effectiveness (0.0003 QALY) per patient at a cost of $1,236,295 per QALY. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the cost of initial hospitalization and emergency medical services adherence to triage status (ie transporting triage-positive patients to a trauma center) had the largest influence on overall cost-effectiveness. High-sensitivity trauma field triage is not cost-effective among older adults.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of the Implementation of Cryptococcal Antigen Lateral Flow Assay for the Diagnosis of Cryptococcal Meningitis in Symptomatic People Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus in Brazil

ObjectivesCryptococcal meningitis constitutes a significant source of mortality in the developing world. Annually, approximately 625 000 deaths occur worldwide among patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. This study aims to assess the cost-effectiveness of implementing cryptococcal antigen lateral flow assay (CRAG-LFA) screening in Brazil compared with the current practice. MethodsAn economic evaluation using a Monte Carlo microsimulation was conducted, considering the perspective of the Brazilian Public Health System, to calculate the cost-effectiveness of 4 diagnosis tests: (1) CRAG-LFA, (2) the cryptococcal antigen latex agglutination (CRAG-LA) test, (3) India ink, and (4) nontracking as a baseline. The time horizon comprised 1 year for the intervention and 5 years for the budgetary impact analysis. Two primary effectiveness outcomes were considered: years of life and quality-adjusted life-years. ResultsCRAG-LFA has extended dominance vis à vis CRAG-LA and India ink. CRAG-LFA would cost $418.46 more than CRAG-LA for the treatment of each symptomatic patient living with HIV, with an incremental cost effectiveness ratio of $2478.75/quality-adjusted life year. The budgetary impact analysis estimated that the incorporation of CRAG-LFA would have an additional cost of $1 959 236.50 in 5 years. ConclusionsThese findings suggest that, for patients living with HIV in the Brazilian Public Health System, the adoption of CRAG-LFA screening is cost-effective compared with the use of CRAG-LA and India ink. It represents an opportunity to prevent cryptococcal meningitis and its mortality in Brazil.

Cost-Effectiveness of Zonisamide Versus Levetiracetam in Newly Diagnosed Focal Onset Epilepsy in Serbia

ObjectivesWhen choosing initial therapy for epilepsy, the decision should be supported by studies that include both treatment outcome and costs. This is especially important for developing countries with restricted budgets because such circumstances are also characterized by higher epilepsy prevalence rates. The aim of this study was to compare cost-utility of zonisamide (ZNS) and levetiracetam (LEV) in patients with newly diagnosed focal-onset epilepsy in the Republic of Serbia. MethodsA 5-state, 3-month-cycle Markov model was created to compare ZNS and LEV. The model assumed that patients whose seizures were not controlled by treatment with either ZNS or LEV would be continued on carbamazepine in controlled-release form in the second cycle and would then be treated with a pregabalin add-on if still not adequately controlled. The perspective of the Serbian Republic Health Insurance Fund was chosen, and the time horizon was 15 years. Model results were obtained after Monte Carlo microsimulation of a sample with 1000 virtual patients. Both multiple one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. ResultsAfter base-case analysis, LEV was dominated by ZNS because the net monetary benefit was positive (16 940.78 ± 22 572.26 Serbian dinars; €144.09 ± €191.99) and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was below the willingness-to-pay threshold of 3 Serbian gross domestic products per capita per quality-adjusted life-year gained. Multiple one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses confirmed the results of the base-case simulation. ConclusionsZNS has a more beneficial cost-effectiveness ratio than LEV for the treatment of newly diagnosed focal epilepsy in Serbian milieu.

Hyaluronate carboxymethylcellulose sheets for the prevention of adhesive complications: a model-based cost-utility analysis.

Clinical trials suggest that hyaluronate carboxymethylcellulose (HA/CMC) prevents adhesion-related complications after intra-abdominal surgery, but at a high upfront cost. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of HA/CMC for patients undergoing curative-intent open colorectal cancer surgery. Using a Markov Monte Carlo microsimulation model, we conducted a cost-utility analysis comparing the cost-effectiveness of HA/CMC at curative-intent open colorectal cancer surgery versus standard management. We considered a scenario where HA/CMC was used at the index operation only, as well as where it was used at the index operation and any subsequent operations. The perspective was that of the third-party payer. Costs and utilities were discounted 1.5% annually, with a 1-month cycle length and 5-year time horizon. Model input data were obtained from a literature review. Outcomes included cost, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), small bowel obstructions (SBOs) and operations for SBO. Using HA/CMC at the index operation results in an incremental cost increase of CA$316 and provides 0.001 additional QALYs, for an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of CA$310,000 per QALY compared to standard management. In our simulated cohort of 10,000 patients, HA/CMC prevented 460 SBOs and 293 surgeries for SBO. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis found that HA/CMC was cost-effective in 18.5% of iterations, at a cost-effectiveness threshold of CA$50,000 per QALY. Results of the scenario analysis where HA/CMC was used at the index operation and any subsequent operations were similar. Hyaluronate carboxymethylcellulose prevents adhesive bowel obstruction after open colorectal cancer surgery but is unlikely to be cost-effective given minimal long-term impact on healthcare costs and QALYs.

Global poverty: A first estimation of its uncertainty

The dollar-a-day method, applied in monitoring the UN’s development goals against poverty, provides no confidence interval for the official figures of global poverty reduction, a practice that does not allow statistical testing. Using Monte Carlo micro-simulations we construct confidence intervals that reflect the error introduced by the process of determining the International Poverty Line, as well as the uncertainty of the involved Purchasing Power Parity exchange rates. These estimates identify a reduction of 5.19% between 1990 and 2015 at 95% confidence level, in stark contrast with the remarkable 73% reduction of global poverty reported in the World Bank official statistics published on September 18, 2018. At the same time, MDG1 obtains with a 80% confidence level. The cost-of-basic-needs method paints a more promising picture identifying a 35.71% reduction at 95% confidence level, while the confidence level at which poverty in 2015 was half of 1990 stands at 46%. We conclude that the derivation method of the international poverty line introduces high levels of uncertainty in the estimates.

Cost-effectiveness analysis and budgetary impact of the Cryptococcal Antigen Lateral Flow Assay (CRAG-LFA) implementation for the screening and diagnosis of cryptococcosis in asymptomatic people living with HIV in Brazil.

ABSTRACTCryptococcal infection is a frequent cause of mortality in Brazilian HIV-infected patients. The present study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness and budgetary impact of four cryptococcosis screening strategies in HIV-infected patients with CD4+ ≤ 200 cells/mm3, in Brazil. A Monte Carlo microsimulation was used to compare the following diagnostic tests: a systematic serum cryptococcal antigen (CRAG) screening with latex agglutination (CRAG-LA), a lateral flow immunochromatographic test (CRAG-LFA), India ink staining and no intervention. The rationale was that of the Unified Health System (SUS), and the time horizon was of one year for the intervention and of five years for the budgetary impact analysis (BIA). The effectiveness outcomes were years of life and years of life adjusted for quality (QALY). The cost-effectiveness analysis showed that the two cryptococcal antigen tests were cost-effective, presenting with superior results in comparison with India ink and no screening. CRAG-LFA, compared to CRAG-LA, has an incremental cost of US$0.25 and an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$73.36 (considering the US dollar equal to 5 reais, the Brazilian current money). The probabilistic sensitivity analysis between CRAG-LFA and CRAG-LA, despite showing a high agreement between the two tests, indicated the superiority of CRAG-LFA. The BIA estimated that the incorporation of CRAG-LFA would have an additional cost of approximately U$S 10.4 million dollars in five years. These findings suggest that, for the group of studied patients, the adoption of CRAG-LFA and CRAG-LA are cost-effective, while the India ink test and no intervention are less effective strategies. The BIA showed that using the CRAG-LFA test for people living with HIV (PLHIV) with CD4+ ≤ 200 cells/mm3 could reduce costs for the Brazilian Unified Health System (SUS).

Cost-effectiveness of Artificial Intelligence for Proximal Caries Detection

Artificial intelligence (AI) can assist dentists in image assessment, for example, caries detection. The wider health and cost impact of employing AI for dental diagnostics has not yet been evaluated. We compared the cost-effectiveness of proximal caries detection on bitewing radiographs with versus without AI. U-Net, a fully convolutional neural network, had been trained, validated, and tested on 3,293, 252, and 141 bitewing radiographs, respectively, on which 4 experienced dentists had marked carious lesions (reference test). Lesions were stratified for initial lesions (E1/E2/D1, presumed noncavitated, receiving caries infiltration if detected) and advanced lesions (D2/D3, presumed cavitated, receiving restorative care if detected). A Markov model was used to simulate the consequences of true- and false-positive and true- and false-negative detections, as well as the subsequent decisions over the lifetime of patients. A German mixed-payers perspective was adopted. Our health outcome was tooth retention years. Costs were measured in 2020 euro. Monte-Carlo microsimulations and univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and the cost-effectiveness acceptability at different willingness-to-pay thresholds were quantified. AI showed an accuracy of 0.80; dentists’ mean accuracy was significantly lower at 0.71 (minimum–maximum: 0.61–0.78, P < 0.05). AI was significantly more sensitive than dentists (0.75 vs. 0.36 [0.19–0.65]; P = 0.006), while its specificity was not significantly lower (0.83 vs. 0.91 [0.69–0.98]; P > 0.05). In the base-case scenario, AI was more effective (tooth retention for a mean 64 [2.5%–97.5%: 61–65] y) and less costly (298 [244–367] euro) than assessment without AI (62 [59–64] y; 322 [257–394] euro). The ICER was −13.9 euro/y (i.e., AI saved money at higher effectiveness). In the majority (>77%) of all cases, AI was less costly and more effective. Applying AI for caries detection is likely to be cost-effective, mainly as fewer lesions remain undetected. Notably, this cost-effectiveness requires dentists to manage detected early lesions nonrestoratively.

Cost-effectiveness of Universal and Targeted Hepatitis C Virus Screening in the United States

Between 2 and 3.5 million people live with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in the US, most of whom (approximately 75%) are not aware of their disease. Despite the availability of effective HCV treatment in the early stages of infection, HCV will result in thousands of deaths in the next decade in the US. To investigate the cost-effectiveness of universal screening for all US adults aged 18 years or older for HCV in the US and of targeted screening of people who inject drugs. This simulated economic evaluation used cohort analyses in a Markov model to perform a 10 000-participant Monte Carlo microsimulation trail to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of HCV screening programs, and compared screening programs targeting people who inject drugs with universal screening of US adults age 18 years or older. Data were analyzed in December 2019. Cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Cost per QALY gained. In a 10 000 Monte Carlo microsimulation trail that compared a baseline of individuals aged 40 years (men and women) and people who inject drugs in the US, screening and treatment for HCV were estimated to increase total costs by $10 457 per person and increase QALYs by 0.23 (approximately 3 months), providing an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $45 465 per QALY. Also, universal screening and treatment for HCV are estimated to increase total costs by $2845 per person and increase QALYs by 0.01, providing an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $291 277 per QALY. The findings of this study suggest that HCV screening for people who inject drugs may be a cost-effective intervention to combat HCV infection in the US, which could potentially decrease the risk of untreated HCV infection and liver-related mortality.

Smoke-Free Air Interventions in Seven Latin American Countries: Health and Financial Impact to Inform Evidence-Based Policy Implementation

Disease burden due to tobacco smoking in Latin America remains very high. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential impact of implementing smoke-free air interventions on health and cost outcomes in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, using a mathematical model. We built a probabilistic Monte Carlo microsimulation model, considering natural history, direct health system costs, and quality of life impairment associated with main tobacco-related diseases. We followed individuals in hypothetical cohorts and calculated health outcomes on an annual basis to obtain aggregated 10-year population health outcomes (deaths and events) and costs. To populate the model, we completed an overview and systematic review of the literature. Also, we calibrated the model comparing the predicted disease-specific mortality rates with those coming from local national statistics. With current policies, for the next 10 years, a total of 137 121 deaths and 917 210 events could be averted, adding 3.84 million years of healthy life and saving USD 9.2 billion in these seven countries. If countries fully implemented smoke-free air strategies, it would be possible to avert nearly 180 000 premature deaths and 1.2 million events, adding 5 million healthy years of life and saving USD 13.1 billion in direct healthcare. Implementing the smoke-free air strategy would substantially reduce deaths, diseases, and health care costs attributed to smoking. Latin American countries should not delay the full implementation of this strategy. Tobacco smoking is the single most preventable and premature mortality cause in the world. The Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, supported by the World Health Organization, introduced a package of evidence-based measures for tobacco control. This study adds quality evidence on the potential health effects and savings of implementing smoke-free air policies in countries representing almost 80% of the Latin America and the Caribbean population.

Impact of SARS-CoV2 (Covid-19) on dental practices: Economic analysis

ObjectivesTo combat SARS-CoV2 (Covid-19), policy makers worldwide have adopted different policy alternatives, often including mitigation/suppression policies. We assessed the economic impact of such policies on dental practices in Germany using a modelling approach. MethodsA providers’ perspective within German healthcare was taken, with two provider scenarios (low/high volume practice, low/high proportion of non-statutory insurance revenue, low/high staff pool and costs; S1 and S2 scenarios) being modelled. Providers’ costs were estimated in different blocks (staff, material, laboratory, others). A telephone-based survey was conducted on 24th March to 2nd April 2020 on a random sample of 300 German dentists (response: n = 146) to determine the experienced dental services utilization changes in these service blocks. A Markov model was constructed, following 100 practices in each scenario for a total of 365 days. Different Covid-19 mitigation/suppression periods (90 days: base-case, 45, 135 days: sensitivity analyses) were modelled. Monte-Carlo micro-simulation was performed and uncertainty introduced via probabilistic and univariate sensitivity analyses. ResultsMitigation/suppression reduced utilization of all services, the most severe for prevention (-80 % in mean), periodontics (-76 %) and prosthetics (-70 %). Within the base-case, mean revenue reductions were 18.7 %/15.7 % from the public insurance, 18.7/18.6 % from private insurers and 19 %/19 % for out-of-pocket expenses in S1/S2, respectively. If the mitigation/suppression was upheld for 135 days, overall revenue decreased by 31 %/30 % in S1/S2, respectively. In this case, 29 %/12 % S1/S2 would have a negative net profit over the course of one year. ConclusionsCovid-19 and associated policies have profound economic effect on dental practices. Clinical signifiancePolicy makers will want to consider our findings when designing governmental subsidy and safety nets with immediate and midterm economic relieve effects. Dentists may consider practice re-organization to reduce costs and maintain minimum profitability.

PNS41 THE IMPACT OF PROPOSED US FEDERAL PHARMACEUTICAL PRICING POLICIES ON GLOBAL POPULATION HEALTH

To estimate the potential impact of the enactment of various proposed US federal pharmaceutical pricing policies, such as international reference pricing and binding arbitration, on global population health. The Health Economics Medical Innovation Simulation (THEMIS), a Monte Carlo microsimulation, provided estimates of potential changes in new molecules brought to market and quality-adjusted life expectancy after the implementation of binding arbitration and international reference pricing. Based on the literature, 21%-85% reductions in US prices were modeled, resulting in a 9%-36% decrease in US pharmaceutical revenues. A 3.5 elasticity of innovation was utilized in the model to demonstrate how changes in revenue affect innovation and new therapies coming to market. Thus, a 1% decrease in revenue results in a 3.5% decrease in new drugs coming to market. Societal health and quality of life impacts were estimated based on the change in newly marketed therapies and the modeled impact on common chronic diseases. The value of a statistical life year was estimated to be $200,000. If international reference pricing or binding arbitration are implemented by the federal government, the number of new drugs available to patients would decrease by 37%-42% by 2050. For an individual aged 40 to 45 years-old today, implementing these drug pricing policies in the US would decrease life expectancy by approximately 0.9 to 2.5 years. The associated lifetime welfare reductions in health and quality of life — net of drug and medical spending and appropriately monetized — would total $6 trillion-$16 trillion for patients turning 50 before 2080 in the US and Europe. Current drug pricing proposals neglect scientific advances achieved by research and development and their associated population health gains. International reference pricing and binding arbitration may reduce short-term spending, but decrease the rate of pharmaceutical innovation and reduce population health in the US and Europe.

Maintaining pulpal vitality: Cost-effectiveness analysis on carious tissue removal and direct pulp capping

ObjectivesWhen managing deep carious lesions, dentists can maintain pulp vitality via (1) avoiding pulp exposure and complications by performing selective (SE) instead of non-selective (NS) carious tissue removal, and/or (2) treat exposed pulps by direct capping with mineral-trioxide-aggregate (MTA) instead of calcium hydroxide (CH). We assessed the cost-effectiveness of SE vs. NS combined with direct pulp capping using MTA vs. CH. MethodsA mixed public-private-payer perspective within German healthcare was applied. We modeled a permanent molar with a deep carious lesion and a vital asymptomatic pulp. The lesion was treated by SE/NS and, in case of exposure, direct pulp capping using MTA/CH. The tooth was followed over the lifetime of an initially 30-year-old patient using Markov-models, informed by pairwise and Bayesian network meta-analyses and further data sources. The primary health outcome was tooth-retention time. Costs were derived from German fee item catalogues, combined with micro-costing. Monte-Carlo micro-simulation was performed, and uncertainty introduced via probabilistic and univariate sensitivity analyses. Value-of-information-analysis (VOI) was performed to quantify the value of further research. ResultsSE and, in case of pulp exposure, MTA had a high chance (>95 %) of being cost-effective, with teeth being retained for 37.37 years at costs of 2140 Euro in mean. Alternative strategies were both more costly and less effective; this ranking was robust in sensitivity analyses. The VOI was 1.18 Euro per treated case and 12.86 million Euro on population-level. ConclusionSelective carious tissue removal and, in case of pulp exposure, direct capping with MTA was the most cost-effective strategy. Clinical significanceAvoiding pulp exposure was more relevant for cost-effectiveness than how the exposed pulp was managed. Overall differences remain limited, though, and dentists may want to tailor treatment strategies according to their expertise and patients’ expectations.

Cost-Effectiveness of Maintenance bacillus Calmette-Guérin for Intermediate and High Risk Nonmuscle Invasive Bladder Cancer.

While guidelines support the use of maintenance bacillus Calmette-Guérin for patients with intermediate and high risk nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer, in an era of bacillus Calmette-Guérin shortage we explored the cost-effectiveness of maintenance bacillus Calmette-Guérin. A Markov model compared the cost-effectiveness of maintenance bacillus Calmette-Guérin to surveillance after induction bacillus Calmette-Guérin for intermediate/high risk nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer from a U.S. Medicare perspective. Five-year oncologic outcomes, toxicity rates and utility values were extracted from the literature. Univariable and multivariable sensitivity analyses were conducted. A willingness to pay threshold of $100,000 per quality adjusted life year was considered cost-effective. At 5 years mean costs per patient were $14,858 and $13,973 for maintenance bacillus Calmette-Guérin and surveillance, respectively, with quality adjusted life years of 4.046 for both, making surveillance the dominant strategy. On sensitivity analysis full dose and 1/3 dose maintenance bacillus Calmette-Guérin became cost-effective if the absolute reduction in 5-year progression was greater than 2.1% and greater than 0.76%, respectively. On further sensitivity analysis full dose and 1/3 dose maintenance bacillus Calmette-Guérin became cost-effective when maintenance bacillus Calmette-Guérin toxicity equaled surveillance toxicity. In multivariable sensitivity analyses using 100,000 Monte-Carlo microsimulations, full dose and 1/3 dose maintenance bacillus Calmette-Guérin was cost-effective in 17% and 39% of microsimulations, respectively. Neither full dose nor 1/3 dose maintenance bacillus Calmette-Guérin appears cost-effective for the entire population of patients with intermediate/high risk nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer. These data support prioritizing maintenance bacillus Calmette-Guérin for the subset of patients with high risk nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer most likely to experience progression, in particular those who tolerated induction bacillus Calmette-Guérin well. Overall, our findings support the American Urological Association policy statement to allocate bacillus Calmette-Guérin for induction rather than maintenance therapy during times of bacillus Calmette-Guérin shortage.