Monsoon Rainfall Research Articles

Large-scale atmospheric teleconnections and spatiotemporal variability of extreme rainfall indices across India

Identifying trends in hydrometeorological time series during extreme weather events and their interactions with large-scale atmospheric teleconnections is crucial for climate change research. This study evaluates 14 precipitation-based indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) across seven climatic zones of India using gridded daily rainfall data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for 120 years (1902–2021) utilised. Trend analysis was carried out using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test, Theil-slope Sen's estimator, Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA), and other statistical tools. Change point detection is established using the Pettitte test and Cumulative Sum algorithm. The relationships between large-scale atmospheric teleconnections and ETCCDI indices are also found, and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) models are developed between them.The results show significant increasing trends in extreme rainfall indices in India's Ladakh region, located in the arid desert-cold climatic zone. The annual, Southwest Monsoon (SW-Monsoon), Northeast Monsoon (NE-Monsoon), and summer rainfall trends were positive, while winter rainfall had a negative trend across most climatic zones. Significant associations between large-scale atmospheric teleconnections, including Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Global Temperature Anomaly (GTA), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), SST of Niño 3.4 region, Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), and Dipole Mode Index (IOD) and ETCCDI indices were established across multiple climatic zones. Using MLR analysis, this study attempts to establish, for the first time, the relationship between teleconnections and ETCCDI indices across India. Extreme rainfall indices are influenced by climate change during the SW-Monsoon across most of the climatic zones of India. During the previous El Niño event (2014–2016), average annual rainfall decreased by 19.5%, SW-Monsoon rainfall decreased by 25.2%, and NE-Monsoon rainfall decreased by 64.1% in India. The findings may provide valuable insights into mitigation strategies to sustain the adverse effects of extreme weather conditions and enhance climate resilience.

Prospective Evolution of Meteorological Drought in the Haihe River Basin and Its Connection With Large‐Scale Atmospheric Circulations Using CMIP6 Multimodel Ensemble

AbstractClimate change modifies monsoon rainfall patterns, leading to significant impacts on future meteorological droughts. This study investigated the spatiotemporal pattern of future precipitation, drought features, and the dynamic mechanisms governing their evolution induced by teleconnected atmospheric circulation in the Haihe River Basin, situated in the north China monsoon region. The investigation was conducted under SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios of CMIP6, utilizing the Standardized Precipitation Index and an improved run theory at seasonal and annual scales. The findings revealed that high‐emission scenarios cause a wetter climate trend, particularly in autumn and winter, related to the attenuation of the East Asian Trough from climate warming. The uneven intra‐annual precipitation patterns within the basin, induced by the Asian monsoon climate, are expected to improve in the far future, particularly under the SSP2‐4.5 scenarios. The drought frequency, intensity, and duration of future meteorological drought are expected to improve compared to historical conditions under all three scenarios. SSP2‐4.5 shows the shortest duration and lightest intensity of annual droughts. Extreme droughts are primarily driven by strong subsidence with low‐level moisture divergence. However, in the far future, the eastward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high results in reducing moisture transport from the western Pacific, leading to increasing contribution of advection term to atmospheric drying, particularly under the SSP1‐2.6. In winter, the increase in radiative forcing leads to enhanced evapotranspiration from the Eurasian continent, providing additional moisture and alleviating drought, especially in the far future under the SSP1‐2.6 and SSP2‐4.5 scenarios.

Assessment of extreme rainfall events over the Indian subcontinent during the historical and future projection periods based on CMIP6 simulations

AbstractThe impact of climatic change on the summer monsoon season is studied to understand the rainfall pattern towards the end of the century utilizing the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6) released by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). The analysis of model simulations from CMIP6 was carried out using 64 years of the historical period (1951–2014) and future projections till the end of the century (2015–2100). The models are compared with observed daily rainfall data from the APHRODITE (Asian Precipitation‐Highly‐Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation). The analysis revealed that most of the models show an overestimation in the annual cycle of rainfall in the historical period; however, a few of them underestimate the values. The majority of them capture the onset signal of the summer monsoon in early June, along with a good seasonality in the daily rainfall climatology. The simulations that are coherent with the observational data sets are selected on the basis of the Taylor diagram for future projections in four scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5). The projections of the aforementioned scenarios are taken from the model outputs of EC‐Earth3‐Veg‐LR, INM‐CM4‐8, INM‐CM5‐0, MIROC‐ES2L and MPI‐ESM1‐2‐HR. The selected models exhibit far greater agreement among the 30 models when it comes to the features of rainfall during the summer monsoon. We have given more emphasis on summer monsoon rainfall in the historical and future projection periods since the trends are becoming more chaotic, as reported in observational studies. Over the Indian subcontinent, all of the chosen scenarios show an increased frequency of intense rainfall events with varying decadal and multidecadal features. Central India and west coastal belts are showing positive trends in extreme rainfall events towards the end of the century. At the turn of the century, the southern peninsular region experienced a decline in monsoon precipitation, whereas central India experienced an increase. The severity of rainfall variations during the monsoon season and trends in extremes are increasing as we move from the low‐emission scenario to the high‐emission scenario.

Study of Climatic Pattern and Water Resources from Citizen Science’s Perspective in Namobuddha Municipality, Kavre, Nepal

This study has been initiated to carry out the research on climatic patterns along with water resources from local communities’ perspectives in Namobuddha Municipality, Kavre, Nepal. The study area is located in the eastern part of Kathmandu which is about 35 km away from it. This study has focused on investigating climatic patterns and water resources available in the study area. It was especially carried out utilizing citizens’ perspectives. Mixed qualitative and quantitative methods were used in this study. Total 66 questionnaire surveys and two key informant interviews were conducted in the Simalchaur Sympati area of Namobuddha Municipality which has about 600 households. Required Meteorological data were taken from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Nepal. Results from this study showed that the average, minimum and maximum temperatures were in the increasing trend. However, the average annual along with the monsoon rainfalls were in the decreasing trend. The inhabitants have experienced warmer summer and winter, scarcity of water for domestic as well as for agriculture purposes. Local communities also deplored less ground water flow in their springs. This study has clearly signified the drying up of surface and ground water resources. In overall context, this study output was similar to the global pattern as temperatures are in increasing trend whereas precipitation is in decreasing trend. It signified the need for effective adaptation strategies to combat against the adverse impacts of changing climatic patterns especially for the management of water resources in the study area.

A CNN Bidirectional LSTM framework for predicting monsoon rainfall in India

A CNN Bidirectional LSTM framework for predicting monsoon rainfall in India

Sea level and East Asian monsoon influenced chemical weathering records in the southern South China Sea over the past 21 ka

High-resolution major element geochemistry of Core MD05–2892 from the lower Sunda Slope was analyzed to investigate the variation of chemical weathering records and its controlling factors in the southern South China Sea since the last glaciation. Chemical index of alteration (CIA) and SiO2/Na2O ratio were selected as chemical weathering proxies. The values of the proxies are higher during the last glaciation than during the Holocene. We attribute this to the provenance shift caused by sea level change. Provenance analysis indicates that the Malay Peninsula and Sumatra were the major sediment sources for the study region during the last glaciation, while the Indochina Peninsula has been the major source since the early Holocene. Accordingly, the weathering evolution analysis reveals increased physical erosion in the Malay Peninsula and Sumatra during enhanced East Asian summer monsoon rainfall, while increased chemical weathering in the Indochina Peninsula during the intensified monsoon rainfall. Therefore, the chemical weathering records of the deep-sea sediments in the southern South China Sea were regulated by monsoon rainfall-driven physical erosion in the Malay Peninsula and Sumatra during the last glaciation, while the records have been influenced by monsoon rainfall-induced chemical weathering in the Indochina Peninsula since the early Holocene. This study emphasizes that higher weathering values of the deep-sea sediments during the last glaciation could be related to the provenance variation driven by sea level change, rather than to enhanced chemical weathering in the same provenance.

Pacific‐Driven Salinity Variability in the Timor Passage Since 1777

AbstractSalinity in the Indonesian seas integrates regional oceanographic and atmospheric processes, such as Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) and monsoon rainfall. Here we present a multicentury (1777–1983) δ18O coral record from Nightcliff Reef, located in the Timor Passage off the coast of northern Australia, which we use to infer local salinity change. We show that Australian monsoon rainfall and ITF influence salinity at the study site. These reconstructed salinity changes in the Timor Passage correlate with changes in Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) modes, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). While environmental stress creates challenging conditions for coral growth, this record particularly tracks the central Pacific signature of ENSO‐driven interannual variability, in agreement with reconstructions of rainfall across northern Australia. The strength of interannual variance in the record follows fluctuations in other local ENSO‐sensitive rainfall reconstructions, demonstrating a strong regional ENSO signature. However, this regional pattern differs from variance in composite ENSO reconstructions, suggesting that the multi‐site nature of these reconstructions may create biases. Salinity variability on decadal and longer time scales occurs throughout the record. Some of these oscillations are consistent with other ITF‐sensitive coral records. Our new salinity record adds a strongly Pacific‐sensitive record to the existing suite of regional paleoclimate reconstructions. Relationships among these records highlight the complexity of salinity in the Indonesian seas and the controls on its variability.

Orbitally forced and internal changes in West African rainfall interannual-to-decadal variability for the last 6000 years

Recent variability in West African monsoon rainfall (WAMR) has been shown to be influenced by multiple ocean–atmosphere modes, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. How these modes will change in response to long term forcing is less well understood. Here we use four transient simulations driven by changes in orbital forcing and greenhouse gas concentrations over the past 6000 years to examine the relationship between West African monsoon rainfall multiscale variability and changes in the modes associated with this variability. All four models show a near linear decline in monsoon rainfall over the past 6000 years in response to the gradual weakening of the interhemispheric gradient in sea surface temperatures. The only indices that show a long-term trend are those associated with the strengthening of the El Niño Southern Oscillation from the mid-Holocene onwards. At the interannual-to-decadal timescale, WAMR variability is largely influenced by Pacific–Atlantic – Mediterranean Sea teleconnections in all simulations; the exact configurations are model sensitive. The WAMR interannual-to-decadal variability depicts marked multi-centennial oscillations, with La Niña/negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation and a weakening and/or poleward shift of subtropical high-pressure systems over the Atlantic favoring wet WAMR anomalies. The WAMR interannual-to-decadal variability also depicts an overall decreasing trend throughout the Holocene that is consistent among the simulations. This decreasing trend relates to changes in the North Atlantic and Gulf of Guinea Sea Surface Temperature variability.

Characterization and prediction of southwest monsoon rainfall patterns in Central India as a linear state space modeling

Characterization and prediction of southwest monsoon rainfall patterns in Central India as a linear state space modeling

ANALISIS KARAKTERISTIK SPASIAL DAN TEMPORAL HOTSPOT DI TAMAN NASIONAL SEBANGAU PROVINSI KALIMANTAN TENGAH

Sebangau National Park, in Central Kalimantan Province, is a wetland conservation area. In 2015, forest and land fires resulted in 455 hectares being burned. The identification of hotspots in this study is based on the number and distribution of hotspots based on satellite imagery data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) in 2001–2020. This study identifies hotspots by looking at the influence of rainfall and ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) conditions. The method used is the method of spatial and temporal analysis. The aim of this study was to determine the characteristics of the hotspot distribution pattern in Sebangau National Park, Central Kalimantan Province, both spatially and temporally. There is a similarity between the temporal and spatial characteristics of hotspots in the number of significant additions to the number of hotspots in August, September, and October. The influence of monsoonal rainfall types and climates such as ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) greatly influences the occurrence of hotspot events in Sebangau National Park, Central Kalimantan Province. The distribution pattern of hotspots in Sebangau National Park, Central Kalimantan Province, peaked in October, and the worst addition to the number of hotspots occurred in 2015, when these conditions occurred during the dry season and when the ENSO index (El Nino Southern Oscillation) showed +2.6, where these conditions included strong El Nino categories.

Recent Tangible Natural Variability of Monsoonal Orographic Rainfall in the Eastern Himalayas

AbstractHimalayas hydroclimate is a lifeline for South Asia's most densely populated region. Every year, flooding in the Himalayan rivers is usual during summer monsoon, which impacts millions of inhabitants of the Himalayas and downstream regions. Recent studies demonstrate the role of melting glaciers and snow in the context of global warming, along with monsoonal rain causing recurrent floods. Here, we highlight the natural variability in the eastern Himalayan hydroclimate over the last 43 years (1979–2021). We found extreme monsoonal rainy years with six dry years and seven wet years after removing the climate change signal. Monsoon rainfall is a significant contributor, and melting snow is not a potential contributor to these anomalous extreme years. The variability of Himalayan monsoonal rainfall is strongly regulated by local monsoonal Hadley circulation associated with tropical sea surface temperature. Our findings demonstrate mechanisms associated with Himalayan wet and dry monsoon. Atmospheric dynamics are attributed as the primary modulating factor, influencing local thermodynamics through moist processes. The insights provided in this study underscore the impact of natural variability‐driven challenging events that could be predictable. Thus, this mechanism could improve the predictability of the Himalayas floods.

Geographical Trapping of Synchronous Extremes Amidst Increasing Variability of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

AbstractConcurrent extreme rainfall events, or synchronous extremes, during Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR), cause significant damage, but their spatiotemporal evolution remains unclear. Using the event synchronization approach to examine the synchronicity of extreme rainfall events from 1901 to 2019, we find that Central India consistently hosts strongly connected synchronous extreme hubs with localized connections, indicating the geographical trapping of these concurrent events in the region. We observe a moderate positive correlation between network cohesiveness and El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO), and a negative correlation between ENSO and link lengths, suggesting localized synchronicity during El Niño dominant decades and opposite patterns in La Niña periods. Despite increasing ISMR variability and spatial nonuniformity, the persistence of hubs and network attributes could offer insights for predicting synchronous extremes, informing effective adaptation and risk management strategies during the monsoon season.

Identification of functional traits responsible for environmental vulnerability of Cedrus deodara in temperate forests of Western Himalaya

Climate change is impacting forest tree species adversely and making the ecological system vulnerable. The present study attempts to assess the internal vulnerability of Cedrus deodara occurring in nine sub-types of temperate forests in Western Himalaya, India via a plant functional trait-based approach. Internal vulnerability was assessed based on sensitivity and adaptive capacity through proposing an index using IPCC framework. Sensitivity was determined based on various traits (indicators) of light harvesting, carbon assimilation, nutrient content, and water budget, whereas adaptability was defined based on light harvesting efficiency, water use efficiency, resource use efficiency, and nutrient limitation. Sensitivity was maximum in Dry Deodar Forest (0.51) and Low-Level Blue Pine Forest (0.51) and minimum in Western Mixed Coniferous Forest (o.38), however adaptability was maximum in Kharsu Oak Forest (0.65) and Moist Deodar Forest-II (0.65) with minimum adaptability for Ban Oak Forest (0.53). In Ban Oak Forest, Low-Level Blue Pine Forest and Moist Deodar Forest-II high stomatal conductance compensates the low chlorophyll achieving homeostasis state for photosynthesis. Negative minimum temperature (-6.95 to −2.04 °C) in winters followed by high monsoon rainfall (417.74 to 1256.13 mm) causes high sensitivity amongst the C. deodara population in Low Level Blue Pine Forest, Dry Deodar Forest and Moist Deodar Forest-II; and adaptability was majorly affected by water availability i.e., excessive monsoon rainfall in Ban Oak Forest (1962.45 mm) and least rainfall in Neoza Pine Forest (349.50 mm). Overall, the vulnerability was high in Low Level Blue Pine Forest (0.46), Ban Oak Forest (0.45) and Dry Deodar Forest (0.45). Present study identified key traits for species vulnerability therefore management intervention should orient towards those silvicultural operations which may reduce relative water use of the species and may also facilitate for improved photosynthesis i.e., through water provision and density management of the C. deodara dominated forests in Himalayan region. The study concludes that a unified approach for managing species of the forest may be disadvantageous and detrimental to forest conservation. Rather site-specific management approach, which led to incremental response to the identified traits may support the conservation of species.

Two-phase hydrological changes during the mid-to late Holocene transition in Southwest China

The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall feeds a vast majority of the densely populated Asian continent. A deep understanding of the ISM rainfall variations and the underlying driving mechanisms during the Holocene is essential to predict its future behaviors and formulate improved mitigating strategies under the context of global warming. It has been widely recognized that the ISM intensity declined from the early to late Holocene, with a mid-to late Holocene transition. However, the nature of hydrological changes during this critical transition still remains vague. In this study, hydrological changes in Southwest China during the mid-to late Holocene transition are reconstructed based on the molecular and compound-specific carbon and hydrogen isotopic compositions of leaf waxes (δ13C and δD of n-alkanes) from the Yanjiang peat deposit in western Yunnan. Results reveal two-phase changes of hydroclimate during the mid-to late Holocene transition in Southwest China. During the first phase (5.5–4.2 cal kyr BP), Southwest China experienced an abrupt drying as indicated by the pronounced increases in both δ13C and δD values of the C29n-alkane (δ13CC29 and δDC29) by 2.2% and 26‰, respectively. The second phase (4.2–2.6 cal kyr BP) witnessed shortening in the duration of the ISM season without further aridification, as demonstrated by an increase up to 35‰ in the δDC29 values and moderate oscillations in the δ13CC29 values. Such a two-phase hydrological transition is likely to have been triggered by the changes in the summer solar insolation and amplified by the ocean-atmosphere interactions. The first phase is primarily modulated by the positive Indian Ocean Dipole mean state, while the second phase is mainly linked with a more El Niño-like mean state over the Pacific Ocean.

Role of local absorbing aerosols in modulating Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Absorbing aerosols and their impact on the Indian monsoon system is highly complex and demands more scientific understanding. Our study using a chemistry-coupled regional climate model (RegCM 4.5) with idealized experiments observed that natural and anthropogenic absorbing aerosols (i.e., dust and carbonaceous aerosols) reduce monsoon precipitation in a seasonal time scale. More than 1 mm day−1 decline in mean summertime rainfall was observed over parts of the central Indian region and Indo-Gangetic plane for dust aerosol. A substantial reduction in the land-sea pressure gradient and lower tropospheric moisture distribution were found to control the observed modulation in rainfall. Near-surface wind circulation responded distinctly to natural (dust) and anthropogenic (carbonaceous) aerosols. The dust forcing weakened the monsoon trough by creating an anomalous anticyclonic circulation. The Northern Arabian Sea acted as a moisture source for the carbonaceous aerosol forcing. Intraseasonal rainfall over central India appeared to have a sharp reduction for dust forcing during early June, with a moderate increase for carbonaceous aerosols. Such quantification is essential for understanding the impact of aerosol forcing on regional climate change and the water cycle and has implications for emissions management and mitigation policies.

Future changes of summer monsoon rainfall and temperature over Bangladesh using 27 CMIP6 models

This research aims to investigate the future changes in summer monsoon rainfall and temperature in Bangladesh. The study revealed that INM-CM5-0 is the best model for projecting temperature, while BCC-CSM2-MR is the best model for projecting rainfall over Bangladesh. Using data from a large ensemble of 27 models from CMIP6, the study examined the rainfall and temperature change projections of Bangladesh during the twenty first century relative to the reference period (1981–2014) under SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5. Under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, the multi-model ensemble monsoon mean rainfall over Bangladesh will fluctuate between 40 and 260 mm and 100 and 900 mm, respectively. In most parts of the country’s north, northeastern, and western regions, the projected changes in spatial patterns of monsoon rainfall indicate an increase in rainfall. The projected temperature indicated that Bangladesh’s northwest and west-central areas could face the most significant rise in temperatures, surpassing 3.8 °C under SSP5-8.5.

Characteristics of Monsoon Semipermanent Features in Changing Climate: An Environmental Approach

The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) spans four months beginning from June to September (JJAS) and produced extensive rainfall over Indian continents. The land-sea heating contrast is one of the major factors facilitating ISM. ISM is managed with the aid of several monsoon semi-permanent features (MSF) which include Pakistan heat low, cross-equatorial low-level jet over the Arabian Sea, and the tropical easterly jet over the Indian Ocean at 200 hPa, Mascarene High, and seasonal anti-cyclone over the Tibet. Any fluctuations in these SMF can strongly modulate Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR). Therefore, it is imperative that the structure and variability of MSF need to be examined in changing climate scenarios to assess its impact on the future monsoon. Further, ISM also experiences internal variability in terms of deficit and surplus years, therefore the impact of MSF on this variability also needs to be examined. The main objective of the study is to examine the variation of rainfall in JJAS over the Indian monsoon core region and the characteristics of SMF for two contrasting monsoon years. Based on the previous study observed that the monsoon core zone has an important role to play in the ISM so for the rainfall study take the monsoon core zone for the study purpose. The 5th generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5), India Meteorological Department (IMD) rainfall datasets from 1981-2020, and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) 2015-2021 for four different SSP scenarios. In addition, to determine the changes in these MSF and their impact on rainfall for ISM. For the calculation of rainfall percentage departure of IMD and ERA5 and CMIP6 dataset following Rajeevan et al. (2010).

The aggradation of alluvial fans in response to monsoon variability over the last 400 ka in the Hajar Mountains, south-east Arabia

The preservation and interpretation of past external forcings within sedimentary archives can be complicated. Marine proxy records show that, throughout the Mid-Late Quaternary, monsoon rainfall in south-east Arabia has varied at precessional timescales (∼ 23 ka). By contrast, terrestrial environmental records from the region, such as speleothems and palaeolake sequences, generally only capture rainfall variability at eccentricity (∼ 100 ka) timescales and geomorphological archives rarely record events over multiple glacial cycles. Previous work has suggested that the alluvial fan systems of the Hajar Mountains record aggradation coincident with precessional peaks because of more northerly Indian Ocean Summer Monsoon (IOSM) rainfall, relative to present. However, the alluvial record is complex: there is a growing body of ‘anomalous’ aggradation age data from periods of precessional minima and it is spatially uneven, mainly being derived from fans at either the northern- or southern-most extents of the western side of the mountains.We present optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) ages of alluvial aggradation from new sites in the central portion of the western and eastern sides of the Hajar mountains. Sedimentary units that show evidence of more sustained flow conditions, such as coarse conglomerate deposition and the development of thick floodplain deposits, typically date to periods of higher IOSM rainfall at precessional timescales. Sites where there is evidence of deposition under more ephemeral flow conditions, like today, yield ages corresponding to precessional minima. We synthesise these data with similarly interpreted alluvial and lacustrine deposits from across the region, employing a hierarchical clustering approach to generate clusters of ages representing periods of increased hydrological activity. This objective approach to regional chronological data suggests that ten periods of more sustained hydrological activity are evidenced across the Hajar region, broadly aligning to precessional and eccentricity peaks over the last 400 ka. These clusters show that Hajar fans predominately aggrade because of increasing rainfall over their catchments, with the central ages of clusters often aligning with the onset of precessional forcing. Hajar alluvial systems preserve important records of Quaternary climate variability over long timescales in an arid region where terrestrial records are scarce due to preservation issues.

Dynamic relationship between Indian summer monsoon rainfall and South Asian high in seasonal coupled models

Dynamic relationship between Indian summer monsoon rainfall and South Asian high in seasonal coupled models

Analysing the Impact of the Southwest Monsoon on Kharif Rice Acreage in the Raipur District Using Microwave Remote Sensing

This study utilized Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data from Sentinel-1 to estimate the kharif paddy acreage in the Raipur district. The unique capability of microwaves to penetrate clouds enabled the mapping of paddy fields even during the monsoon season. Supervised classification based on training samples was employed to delineate paddy fields. The results demonstrated that the estimated paddy area closely matched the reported area, with error percentages of 5.3% and 8.6% in 2017 and 2019, respectively. The analysis of data from 2011 to 2019 revealed a consistent decline in both paddy acreage and rainfall during that period. Furthermore, the block-level analysis indicated significant spatial variations, with the Arang blocks having the largest paddy cover and the Raipur block the least. Moreover, a strong correlation was observed between southwest monsoon rainfall and the kharif rice cultivation, with paddy acreage decreasing during SW monsoon deficit years. These findings shed light on the impact of monsoons on rice cultivation and can guide agricultural planning and water resource management strategies in the region.