Assessment of extreme rainfall events over the Indian subcontinent during the historical and future projection periods based on CMIP6 simulations

Abstract

AbstractThe impact of climatic change on the summer monsoon season is studied to understand the rainfall pattern towards the end of the century utilizing the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6) released by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). The analysis of model simulations from CMIP6 was carried out using 64 years of the historical period (1951–2014) and future projections till the end of the century (2015–2100). The models are compared with observed daily rainfall data from the APHRODITE (Asian Precipitation‐Highly‐Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation). The analysis revealed that most of the models show an overestimation in the annual cycle of rainfall in the historical period; however, a few of them underestimate the values. The majority of them capture the onset signal of the summer monsoon in early June, along with a good seasonality in the daily rainfall climatology. The simulations that are coherent with the observational data sets are selected on the basis of the Taylor diagram for future projections in four scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5). The projections of the aforementioned scenarios are taken from the model outputs of EC‐Earth3‐Veg‐LR, INM‐CM4‐8, INM‐CM5‐0, MIROC‐ES2L and MPI‐ESM1‐2‐HR. The selected models exhibit far greater agreement among the 30 models when it comes to the features of rainfall during the summer monsoon. We have given more emphasis on summer monsoon rainfall in the historical and future projection periods since the trends are becoming more chaotic, as reported in observational studies. Over the Indian subcontinent, all of the chosen scenarios show an increased frequency of intense rainfall events with varying decadal and multidecadal features. Central India and west coastal belts are showing positive trends in extreme rainfall events towards the end of the century. At the turn of the century, the southern peninsular region experienced a decline in monsoon precipitation, whereas central India experienced an increase. The severity of rainfall variations during the monsoon season and trends in extremes are increasing as we move from the low‐emission scenario to the high‐emission scenario.