Monsoon Activity Research Articles

The stratigraphic record of changing hyperaridity in the Atacama desert over the last 10 Ma

New radiometric and magnetostratigraphic data from Quillagua and Calama basins (Atacama desert) indicate that the stratigraphic record over the last 10Ma includes two hiatuses, lasting approximately 2 and 4 million years respectively. These sedimentary gaps are thought to represent prolonged periods of hyperaridity in the region, with absence of sediment production and accumulation in the central depressions. Their remarkable synchrony with Antarctic and Patagonian glacial stages, Humboldt cold current enhancement and cold upwelling waters lead us to suggest long-term climate forcing. Higher frequency climate (orbital precession and eccentricity) forcing is thought to control the sequential arrangement of the lacustrine units deposited at times of lower aridity. Hyperaridity trends appear to be modulated by the activity of the South American Summer Monsoon, which drives precipitation along the high altitude areas to the east of Atacama. This precipitation increase combined with the eastward enlargement of the regional drainage during the late Pleistocene enabled water transfer from these high altitude areas to the low lying closed Quillagua basin and resulted in the deposition of the last widespread saline lacustrine deposits in this depression, before its drainage was open to the Pacific Ocean.

Delayed build-up of Arctic ice sheets during 400,000-year minima in insolation variability

Knowledge of the past variability of climate at high northern latitudes during astronomical analogues of the present interglacial may help to inform our understanding of future climate change. Unfortunately, long-term continuous records of ice-sheet variability in the Northern Hemisphere only are scarce because records of benthic (18)O content represent an integrated signal of changes in ice volume in both polar regions. However, variations in Northern Hemisphere ice sheets influence the Siberian High (an atmospheric pressure system), so variations in the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM)--as recorded in the aeolian dust deposits on the Chinese Loess Plateau--can serve as a useful proxy of Arctic climate variability before the ice-core record begins. Here we present an EAWM proxy record using grain-size variations in two parallel loess sections representative of sequences across the whole of the Chinese Loess Plateau over the past 900,000 years. The results show that during periods of low eccentricity and precessional variability at approximately 400,000-year intervals, the grain-size-inferred intensity of the EAWM remains weak for up to 20,000 years after the end of the interglacial episode of high summer monsoon activity and strong pedogenesis. In contrast, there is a rapid increase in the EAWM after the end of most other interglacials. We conclude that, for both the 400,000-year interglacials, the weak EAWM winds maintain a mild, non-glacial climate at high northern latitudes for much longer than expected from the conventional loess and marine oxygen isotope records. During these times, the less-severe summer insolation minima at 65° N (ref. 4) would have suppressed ice and snow accumulation, leading to a weak Siberian High and, consequently, weak EAWM winds.

The Diurnal Cycle of the Boundary Layer, Convection, Clouds, and Surface Radiation in a Coastal Monsoon Environment (Darwin, Australia)

Abstract The diurnal variation of convection and associated cloud and radiative properties remains a significant issue in global NWP and climate models. This study analyzes observed diurnal variability of convection in a coastal monsoonal environment examining the interaction of convective rain clouds, their associated cloud properties, and the impact on the surface radiation and corresponding boundary layer structure during periods where convection is suppressed or active on the large scale. The analysis uses data from the Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) as well as routine measurements from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program. Both active monsoonal and large-scale suppressed (buildup and break) conditions are examined and demonstrate that the diurnal variation of rainfall is much larger during the break periods and the spatial distribution of rainfall is very different between the monsoon and break regimes. During the active monsoon the total net radiative input to the surface is decreased by more than 3 times the amount than during the break regime—this total radiative cloud forcing is found to be dominated by the shortwave (SW) cloud effects because of the much larger optical thicknesses and persistence of long-lasting anvils and cirrus cloud decks associated with the monsoon regime. These differences in monsoon versus break surface radiative energy contribute to low-level air temperature differences in the boundary layer over the land surfaces.

Distribution of atmospheric mercury in northern Southeast Asia and South China Sea during Dongsha Experiment

Northern South China Sea (SCS) is adjacent to major atmospheric mercury (Hg) emission source regions; however, studies concerning regional atmospheric Hg distribution and cycling are very limited. Accordingly, measurements of atmospheric Hg were conducted in March and April during the 2010 Dongsha Experiment to study its spatial and temporal distribution. Atmospheric Hg was measured at Hengchun and Dongsha Island (Taiwan), Da Nang (Vietnam), Chiang Mai (Thailand) and over the northern SCS. Atmospheric Hg concentrations ranged between 1.54 and 6.83 ng m−3, mostly higher than the Northern Hemisphere background value. Regional wind fields and backward trajectories indicated that the atmospheric Hg concentrations over northern SCS should principally reflect the export of the East Asian Hg emissions by northeast monsoon. However, significantly elevated Hg concentrations were always observed at Da Nang, possibly due to the influence of local Hg emissions. Chiang Mai is located in the intense biomass burning region in northern Thailand. Therefore, atmospheric Hg concentrations at Chiang Mai reflected the influence of regional biomass burning Hg emissions. Two dust storms were encountered at Dongsha Island, one on March 16 and the other on March 21, with atmospheric Hg enhancements. Compared with the 2008 summer values, elevated Hg levels were observed at Dongsha Island in the spring of 2010. Summer air masses were mainly from the deep SCS, representing relatively clean marine air. On the other hand, air masses were from the north in spring, passing eastern China or Taiwan prior to reaching Dongsha Island. Results of this research thus demonstrated the transport of atmospheric Hg from the East Asian continent to northern SCS by regional monsoon activity in spring, but special events, such as biomass burning and dust storms, can also cause enhancements of ambient Hg levels.

A limited area model (LAM) intercomparison study of a TWP‐ICE active monsoon mesoscale convective event

A limited area model (LAM) intercomparison study is conducted based on a tropical monsoonal deep convection case observed during the Tropical Warm Pool ‐ International Cloud Experiment (TWP‐ICE). The LAM simulations are compared with the variational analyses (VA) based on the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) observations and the cloud resolving model (CRM) simulations forced by the VA. Driven by the ECMWF analyses or global model forecasts, LAMs are able to produce the large‐scale thermodynamic field reasonably well compared with the VA. However, the LAM simulated dynamic fields, such as the large‐scale horizontal divergence, vertical velocity, and cyclogenesis in the monsoonal trough, have a large inter‐model spread and deviate substantially from observations. Despite the differences in large‐scale forcing, there is certain consistency between the CRM and LAM simulations: stratiform (w ≤ 1 m s−1) ice clouds dominate the cloud fraction and convective (w > 3 m s−1) clouds occupy less than 3 percent of the total cloudy area. But the hydrometeor content of stratiform ice clouds is only one tenth of that of convective and transitional (1 m s−1 < w ≤ 3 m s−1) ice clouds. However, there is a large inter‐LAM spread in the simulated cloud fraction and hydrometeor mixing ratios. The inter‐LAM difference in solid phase hydrometeors (cloud ice, snow, and graupel) can be up to nearly a factor of 10. Among all the hydrometeor types, the stratiform ice clouds are simulated least consistently by the LAMs. The large inter‐LAM spread suggests that obtaining consistent and reliable dynamic and cloud fields remains a challenge for the LAM approach.

Speleothem isotopic evidence of winter rainfall variability in northeast Turkey between 77 and 6 ka

An oxygen isotope record from a stalagmite that grew between 77 ka and 6 ka in northeast Turkey contains both a strong precessional signal, and sub-orbital oscillations similar to those in Greenland ice cores and Chinese speleothem records of monsoon intensity. Fluid inclusion evidence of a negative shift in the isotopic composition of dripwater during the Lateglacial supports interpretation of the isotope curve as an insolation-forced record of changes in rainfall seasonality. The high-amplitude millennial-scale fluctuations are caused by rapid changes in rainfall seasonality and/or switching of moisture source areas, both of which are associated with the stadial–interstadial climatic oscillations linked to the changing modes of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). Winter rainfall maxima in northeast Turkey coincide with interstadial conditions in Greenland and with periods of intensified Asian monsoon activity. The isotopic shifts in the record are in antiphase with, and are generally much larger in amplitude than, published data from stalagmites in northwest Turkey, most likely because of differing moisture source areas. Carbon isotope ratios are probably kinetically enriched by partial degassing of seepage water in the epikarst, but although often difficult to decypher, particularly during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 2, broadly support the interpretations of the oxygen data.

Characteristics of Mesoscale Organization in WRF Simulations of Convection during TWP-ICE

Abstract Compared to satellite-derived heating profiles, the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (GCM) convective heating is too deep and its stratiform upper-level heating is too weak. This deficiency highlights the need for GCMs to parameterize the mesoscale organization of convection. Cloud-resolving model simulations of convection near Darwin, Australia, in weak wind shear environments of different humidities are used to characterize mesoscale organization processes and to provide parameterization guidance. Downdraft cold pools appear to stimulate further deep convection both through their effect on eddy size and vertical velocity. Anomalously humid air surrounds updrafts, reducing the efficacy of entrainment. Recovery of cold pool properties to ambient conditions over 5–6 h proceeds differently over land and ocean. Over ocean increased surface fluxes restore the cold pool to prestorm conditions. Over land surface fluxes are suppressed in the cold pool region; temperature decreases and humidity increases, and both then remain nearly constant, while the undisturbed environment cools diurnally. The upper-troposphere stratiform rain region area lags convection by 5–6 h under humid active monsoon conditions but by only 1–2 h during drier break periods, suggesting that mesoscale organization is more readily sustained in a humid environment. Stratiform region hydrometeor mixing ratio lags convection by 0–2 h, suggesting that it is strongly influenced by detrainment from convective updrafts. Small stratiform region temperature anomalies suggest that a mesoscale updraft parameterization initialized with properties of buoyant detrained air and evolving to a balance between diabatic heating and adiabatic cooling might be a plausible approach for GCMs.

A study of vertical cloud structure of the Indian summer monsoon using CloudSat data

Precise specification of the vertical distribution of cloud optical properties is important to reduce the uncertainty in quantifying the radiative impacts of clouds. The new global observations of vertical profiles of clouds from the CloudSat mission provide opportunities to describe cloud structures and to improve parameterization of clouds in the weather and climate prediction models. In this study, four years (2007–2010) of observations of vertical structure of clouds from the CloudSat cloud profiling radar have been used to document the mean vertical structure of clouds associated with the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and its intra-seasonal variability. Active and break monsoon spells associated with the intra-seasonal variability of ISM have been identified by an objective criterion. For the present analysis, we considered CloudSat derived column integrated cloud liquid and ice water, and vertically profiles of cloud liquid and ice water content. Over the South Asian monsoon region, deep convective clouds with large vertical extent (up to 14 km) and large values of cloud water and ice content are observed over the north Bay of Bengal. Deep clouds with large ice water content are also observed over north Arabian Sea and adjoining northwest India, along the west coast of India and the south equatorial Indian Ocean. The active monsoon spells are characterized by enhanced deep convection over the Bay of Bengal, west coast of India and northeast Arabian Sea and suppressed convection over the equatorial Indian Ocean. Over the Bay of Bengal, cloud liquid water content and ice water content is enhanced by ~90 and ~200 % respectively during the active spells. An interesting feature associated with the active spell is the vertical tilting structure of positive CLWC and CIWC anomalies over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, which suggests a pre-conditioning process for the northward propagation of the boreal summer intra-seasonal variability. It is also observed that during the break spells, clouds are not completely suppressed over central India. Instead, clouds with smaller vertical extent (3–5 km) are observed due to the presence of a heat low type of circulation. The present results will be useful for validating the vertical structure of clouds in weather and climate prediction models.

Luminescence chronology for late Quaternary lake levels of enclosed Huangqihai lake in East Asian monsoon marginal area in northern China

Lake level fluctuations of closed lakes in monsoonal regions are direct indicators of regional moisture variability related to the intensity of monsoon activities. In the current study, quartz OSL dating was applied to construct the chronology of two sedimentary sequences from the east and west shores of Huangqihai Lake in the East Asian monsoon area, and the history of lake level fluctuations during the late Quaternary was established. In the current study, we present field investigation findings of highstands of >87 m above the modern lake in enclosed Huangqihai Lake in northern China, and also use luminescence dating to establish the timing for the highstands. We conclude that: (1) Lake highstands occurred during both MIS 5 (>87 m above the modern lake) and early Holocene (∼9–8 ka, >54 m above the modern lake), (2) No highstands were observed for MIS 3 and MIS 2 during which loess has accumulated indicative of much drier climate; (3) The evolution of lakes in East Asian monsoon marginal area (e.g. Huangqihai Lake) is linked with the monsoon variation.

Climatology and Formation of Tropical Midlevel Clouds at the Darwin ARM Site

Abstract A 4-yr climatology of midlevel clouds is presented from vertically pointing cloud lidar and radar measurements at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) site at Darwin, Australia. Few studies exist of tropical midlevel clouds using a dataset of this length. Seventy percent of clouds with top heights between 4 and 8 km are less than 2 km thick. These thin layer clouds have a peak in cloud-top temperature around the melting level (0°C) and also a second peak around −12.5°C. The diurnal frequency of thin clouds is highest during the night and reaches a minimum around noon, consistent with variation caused by solar heating. Using a 1.5-yr subset of the observations, the authors found that thin clouds have a high probability of containing supercooled liquid water at low temperatures: ~20% of clouds at −30°C, ~50% of clouds at −20°C, and ~65% of clouds at −10°C contain supercooled liquid water. The authors hypothesize that thin midlevel clouds formed at the melting level are formed differently during active and break monsoon periods and test this over three monsoon seasons. A greater frequency of thin midlevel clouds are likely formed by increased condensation following the latent cooling of melting during active monsoon periods when stratiform precipitation is most frequent. This is supported by the high percentage (65%) of midlevel clouds with preceding stratiform precipitation and the high frequency of stable layers slightly warmer than 0°C. In the break monsoon, a distinct peak in the frequency of stable layers at 0°C matches the peak in thin midlevel cloudiness, consistent with detrainment from convection.

Moisture transport over the Arabian Sea associated with summer rainfall over Pakistan in 1994 and 2002

In this study, we aimed to elucidate the critical role of moisture transport affecting monsoon activity in two contrasting summers over the Arabian Sea during the years 1994, a relatively wet year, and 2002, a relatively dry year. A comprehensive diagnostic evaluation and comparisons of the moisture fields were conducted; we focused on the precipitation and evaporation as well as the moisture transport and its divergence or convergence in the atmosphere. Monthly mean reanalysis data were obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP-I and -II). A detailed evaluation of the moisture budgets over Pakistan during these two years was made by calculating the latent energy flux at the surface (E-P) from the divergence of the total moisture transport. Our results confirm the moisture supply over the Arabian Sea to be the major source of rainfall in Pakistan and neighboring regions. In 1994, Pakistan received more rainfall compared to 2002 during the summer monsoon. Moisture flow deepens and strengthens over Arabian Sea during the peak summer monsoon months of July and August. Our analysis shows that vertically integrated moisture transport flux have a significant role in supplying moisture to the convective centers over Pakistan and neighboring regions from the divergent regions of the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. Moreover, in 1994, a deeper vertically integrated moisture convergence progression occurred over Pakistan compared to that in 2002. Perhaps that deeper convergence resulted in a more intense moisture depression over Pakistan and also caused more rainfall in 1994 during the summer monsoon. Finally, from the water budget analysis, it has been surmised that the water budget was larger in 1994 than in 2002 during the summer monsoon.

Space time variation of lightning activity over northeast India

This paper presents a study of space-time variation of flash rate density over Northeast India (NEI) by using monthly satellite-based lightning flash grid (0.5° x 0.5° : 55 km x 55 km) data for a period of 10 year (1998-2007). The data are examined in terms of spatial, annual and seasonal distribution of the flash rate density. It is found that lightning flash rate density is maximum (55 flkm2 yr1) over the west of northeast India. This high flash rate density is attributed to the topography and the geography of NEI along with the moisture availability over the region. The inter-seasonal comparison of the flash rate density shows that the occurrence of the highest flash rate density during pre-monsoon is due to convective instability giving rise to Nor'westers. Orography of the region and the availability of the moisture control the development of thunderstorm during monsoon season. Shifting of the maximum lightning activity longitudinally during post-monsoon is attributed to the northeast monsoon activity. Development of front-like situation in the low altitude western region of the NEI, due to interaction of dry and cold air from higher latitudes with the warm and moist air caused by Western disturbances, trigger the thunderstorm development process over the region during winter season. The annual variation of flash rate density over the NEI exhibits two peaks- one prominent peak in April and the other smaller peak in September. The first peak is associated with intense insolation, extension of moisture content to the lower tropospheric level and prevailing synoptic condition over the region. The second peak is mainly controlled by the moisture content in the air and the orography of the area. The differences in the values for rain yield in the premonsoon and monsoon seasons may be due to the differences in the cloud microphysical and electrical properties. There is good parallelism in the variation of flash rate density and CAPE. The correlation coefficient between these two parameters is 0.90 which is highly significant at <0.0001%

Identification and analysis of atmospheric states and associated cloud properties for Darwin, Australia

An iterative automated classification technique that combines European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts analysis data and vertically pointing millimeter wavelength cloud radar observations is used to identify commonly occurring atmospheric patterns or states around Darwin, Australia. The technique defines the atmospheric states by large‐scale, synoptic variables such that, once defined, these states will be suitable to composite climate model output. Radar observations of clouds are used to test the statistical significance of each state and prompt the automated refinement of the states until each state produces a statistically stable and unique hydrometeor occurrence profile. The technique identifies eight atmospheric states: two monsoon states, two transition season states, and four dry season states. The two monsoon states can be identified as the active monsoon and the break monsoon. Among the dry season states, periods of isolated and suppressed convection can be identified. We use these states as the basis for compositing hydrometeor occurrence, precipitation rate, outgoing longwave radiation, and Madden‐Julian Oscillation phase to further understand the meteorology of each state.

Indian Ocean Summer Monsoon (IOSM)-dynamics within the past 4 ka recorded in the sediments of Lake Nam Co, central Tibetan Plateau (China)

In September 2008 several cores (68 cm–115 cm length) (water depth: 93 m) were retrieved from Lake Nam Co (southern-central Tibetan Plateau; 4718 m a.s.l.). This study focuses on the interpretation of high-resolution (partly 0.2 cm) data from three gravity cores and the upper part of a 10.4 m long piston core, i.e., the past 4000 cal BP in terms of lake level changes, hydrological variations in the catchment area and consequently variations in monsoon strength. A wide spectrum of sedimentological, geochemical and mineralogical investigations was carried out. Results are presented for XRF core-scans, grain size distribution, XRD-measurements and SEM-image analyses. These data are complemented by an age-depth model using 210Pb and 137Cs analyses as well as eleven AMS-14C-ages. This model is supported by excellent agreement between secular variations determined on one of the gravity cores to geomagnetic field models. This is a significant improvement of the chronology as most catchments of lacustrine systems on the Tibetan Plateau contain carbonates resulting in an unknown reservoir effect for radiocarbon dates. The good correlation of our record to the geomagnetic field models confirms our age-depth model and indicates only insignificant changes in the reservoir effect throughout the last 4 ka.High (summer-) monsoonal activity, i.e. moist environmental conditions, was detected in our record between approximately 4000 and 1950 cal BP as well as between 1480 and 1200 cal BP. Accordingly, lower monsoon activity prevails in periods between the two intervals and thereafter. This pattern shows a good correlation to the variability of the Indian Ocean Summer Monsoon (IOSM) as recorded in a peat bog ∼1000 km in NE direction from Lake Nam Co. This is the first time that such a supra regional homogenous monsoon activity is shown on the Tibetan Plateau and beyond. Finally our data show a significant lake level rise after the Little Ice Age (LIA) in Lake Nam Co which is suggested to be linked to glacier melting in consequence of rising temperatures occurring on the whole Tibetan Plateau during this time.

Spatial variability of annual precipitation using globally gridded data sets from 1951 to 2000

AbstractThis study assesses the variability of the amounts of annual precipitation in global land areas (excluding Greenland and Antarctica) from 1951 to 2000. The analysis is based on 0.5° longitude/latitude gridded data. Three different data sets were analysed (University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit's (UEA CRU) TS 2.1 data set, the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre's (GPCC) Full Data Reanalysis version 5 data set, Variability Analysis of Surface Climate Observations (VASClimO) version 1.1 data set), and all led to very similar results. The results included here correspond to the VasClimO project data. Precipitation variability is examined through the anomaly of the coefficient of variation, which is shown to be a robust concept. It is defined as the departure of the actual coefficient of variation from the value that could be expected ‘on average’, conditioned on the total annual amount of precipitation. A brief discussion of the so‐called Jackknife error is included. The analysis revealed diverse areas of larger‐than‐normal, smaller‐than‐normal and close‐to‐normal variability. Negative anomalies occur more often but have, on an average, lower values than do positive anomalies. Large areas of slightly negative anomalies were found inland for all continents except Australia. A zonal pattern in the distribution of the anomalies was clearly seen at subtropical latitudes, which generally showed positive anomalies. This general picture is modified by various local factors, such as cold ocean currents, monsoon activity and cyclone formation areas. Global modes of climate variability, such as the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO), affect the variability of precipitation either directly or by modifying other relevant atmospheric and oceanic processes. Their influence is seen in many areas with higher‐than‐normal variability and is especially true if the high variability is accompanied by large amounts of mean annual precipitation. The authors believe that the present methodology may be useful in assessing the quality of future global data sets. It is, however, very desirable that such data sets include interpolation error estimates. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

A comparison of TWP‐ICE observational data with cloud‐resolving model results

Observations made during the TWP‐ICE campaign are used to drive and evaluate thirteen cloud‐resolving model simulations with periodic lateral boundary conditions. The simulations employ 2D and 3D dynamics, one‐ and two‐moment microphysics, several variations on large‐scale forcing, and the use of observationally derived aerosol properties to prognose droplet numbers. When domain means are averaged over a 6‐day active monsoon period, all simulations reproduce observed surface precipitation rate but not its structural distribution. Simulated fractional areas covered by convective and stratiform rain are uncorrelated with one another, and are both variably overpredicted by up to a factor of ∼2. Stratiform area fractions are strongly anticorrelated with outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) but are negligibly correlated with ice water path (IWP), indicating that ice spatial distribution controls OLR more than mean IWP. Overpredictions of OLR tend to be accompanied by underpredictions of reflected shortwave radiation (RSR). When there are two simulations differing only in microphysics scheme or large‐scale forcing, the one with smaller stratiform area tends to exhibit greater OLR and lesser RSR by similar amounts. After ∼10 days, simulations reach a suppressed monsoon period with a wide range of mean precipitable water vapor, attributable in part to varying overprediction of cloud‐modulated radiative flux divergence compared with observationally derived values. Differences across the simulation ensemble arise from multiple sources, including dynamics, microphysics, and radiation treatments. Close agreement of spatial and temporal averages with observations may not be expected, but the wide spreads of predicted stratiform fraction and anticorrelated OLR indicate a need for more rigorous observation‐based evaluation of the underlying micro‐ and macrophysical properties of convective and stratiform structures.

On the parameterization of cloud droplet effective radius using CAIPEEX aircraft observations for warm clouds in India

Aircraft measurements of microphysical parameters in cumulus clouds taken during the Phase I of the Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment (CAIPEEX-1) project over the Indian region are used in this study. This data is found useful for verifying and tuning the schemes used in large scale models to parameterize the cloud effective radius (a representative parameter of cloud droplet spectra) using the cloud liquid water content and the cloud droplet number concentration. This analysis used 50-m altitude bin averaged vertical profiles of the microphysical parameters measured in clouds during pre-monsoon, transition-to-monsoon, and active monsoon situations sampled at various locations during June to August 2009. These monsoon cumulus clouds are found to be significantly diluted due to entrainment mixing. A linear relationship between the cloud droplet number concentration and adiabatic fraction (a measure of mixing between the cloud and its environment) is found for the each flight averaged data. The least squares best fit of this linear relationship is suggested as a simple formulation that will be useful for large scale models to predict cloud droplet number concentration, when only cloud liquid water content is diagnosed. The use of this simple formulation is shown to improve the skill of parameterized cloud effective radius for monsoon clouds.

Application of Merged Precipitation Estimation Technique to Study Intense Rainfall Events over India and Associated Oceanic Region

In this paper, an effort has been made to study heavy rainfall events during cyclonic storms and active monsoon cycle over Indian land and associated oceanic regions from recently developed merged rainfall technique using rain gauge and multi-satellite observations from Precipitation Radar (PR) onboard Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) onboard Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) and Meteosat of Eumetsat. Four recent cyclonic events namely Gonu, Bijli, Aila and Laila were qualitatively analyzed using rainfall from this technique. This technique is validated against another merged rainfall product TRMM-3B42V6 and rain gauge observations during heavy rainfall events of the years 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010. Results presented in this study show that the heavy rainfall events are efficiently monitored by this technique.

Impact of the modulated annual cycle and intraseasonal oscillation on daily-to-interannual rainfall variability across monsoonal India

Variability of the Indian summer monsoon is decomposed into an interannually modulated annual cycle (MAC) and a northward-propagating, intraseasonal (30–60-day) oscillation (ISO). To achieve this decomposition, we apply multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (M-SSA) simultaneously to unfiltered daily fields of observed outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) and to reanalyzed 925-hPa winds over the Indian region, from 1975 to 2008. The MAC is essentially given by the year-to-year changes in the annual and semi-annual components; it displays a slow northward migration of OLR anomalies coupled with an alternation between the northeast winter and southwest summer monsoons. The impact of these oscillatory modes on rainfall is then analyzed using a 1-degree gridded daily data set, focusing on Monsoonal India (north of 17°N and west of 90°E) during the months of June to September. Daily rainfall variability is partitioned into three states using a Hidden Markov Model. Two of these states are shown to agree well with previous classifications of “active” and “break” phases of the monsoon, while the third state exhibits a dipolar east–west pattern with abundant rainfall east of about 77°E and low rainfall to the west. Occurrence of the three rainfall states is found to be an asymmetric function of both the MAC and ISO components. On average, monsoon active phases are favored by large positive anomalies of MAC, and breaks by negative ones. ISO impact is decisive when the MAC is near neutral values during the onset and withdrawal phases of the monsoon. Active monsoon spells are found to require a synergy between the MAC and ISO, while the east–west rainfall dipole is less sensitive to interactions between the two. The driest years, defined from spatially averaged June–September rainfall anomalies, are found to be mostly a result of breaks occurring during the onset and withdrawal stages of the monsoon, e.g., mid-June to mid-July, and during September. These breaks are in turn associated with anomalously late MAC onset or early MAC withdrawal, often together with a large-amplitude, negative ISO event. The occurrence of breaks during the core of the monsoon—from late July to late August—is restricted to a few years when MAC was exceptionally weak, such as 1987 or 2002. Wet years are shown to be mostly associated with more frequent active spells and a stronger MAC than usual, especially at the end of the monsoon season. Taken together, our results suggest that monthly and seasonal precipitation predictability is higher in the early and late stages of the summer monsoon season.

Increasing aridity over the past 223 years in the Nepal Himalaya inferred from a tree-ring δ18O chronology

A tree-ring δ18O chronology of Abies spectabilis from the Nepal Himalaya was established to study hydroclimate in the summer monsoon season over the past 223 years (ad 1778–2000). Response function analysis with ambient climatic records revealed that tree-ring δ18O was primarily controlled by the amount of precipitation and relative humidity during the monsoon season (June–September). Since tree-ring δ18O was simultaneously correlated with temperature, drought history in the monsoon season was reconstructed by calibrating against the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Our reconstruction that accounts for 33.7% of the PDSI variance shows a decreasing trend of precipitation/moisture over the past two centuries, and reduction of monsoon activity can be found across different proxy records from the Himalaya and Tibet. Spatial correlation analysis with global sea surface temperatures suggests that the tropical oceans play a role in modulating hydroclimate in the Nepal Himalaya. Although the dynamic mechanisms of the weakening trend of monsoon intensity still remain to be analyzed, rising sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean could be responsible for the reduction of summer monsoon.