Money Supply Research Articles

Pegged exchange rate regime and its impact on inflation in BRICS nations: Country-wise evidence

During the 1990s and 2000s, many developing nations accepted fixed exchange rate regimes to sustain price stability. By pegging their currencies to an anchor currency (i.e. US dollar), developing countries could bring credibility and confidence into their economies. The study tries to analyse the impact of the pegged exchange rate regime on inflation in BRICS countries for the period spanning from 2003 to 2022. The result points to the loss of monetary policy autonomy due to the ‘impossible trinity’ coming into play with a steady increase in capital inflows. The country’s large trade surpluses and extensive trade relationships may buffer the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on domestic prices, as changes in the exchange rate may be absorbed by changes in trade volumes or pricing strategies. Other factors like demographic trends or government interventions in markets could overshadow the influence of the exchange rate regime on inflation. The impact of changes in the exchange rate regimes on inflation may operate with lags, meaning that any effects may not be immediately observable in the data. The analysis in this study proposes that exchange rate regimes choice and money supply influence the inflation dynamics in the BRICS countries. It merely reflects the success of the central bank in neutralizing its very effort of maintaining the pegged rate, which gives rise to inflationary growth of the money supply.

Impact of Stock Market Integration on Industrial Corporate Investment in Nigeria: An Empirical Study (1986-2023)

Nigeria, a sub-Saharan African nation, is endowed with an abundance of natural resources, particularly those needed for industrial purposes. Despite this, the present level of output in the industrial sector in Nigeria is too low, particularly when it comes to investment undertaking by corporate investors. Therefore, the study examined the effect of stock market integration on industrial corporate investment in Nigeria from 1986-2023. Data used were sourced from the Central bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. The study used Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), bound test and Autoregressive Distributed Lag. The ADF estimate indicated that money supply and all share index were integrated of order one; while, corporate investment, stock market integration, real exchange rate, and lending interest rate were integrated of order zero. The F-value for the bound test estimate was much higher than upper bound of critical value at 5% conventional level; therefore, suggesting a long-run link between the use variables. The short-run estimates showed that stock market integration, real exchange rate and all share index were significant with direct effect on corporate investment; while, money supply and lending interest rate were significant also with indirect effects. Furthermore, long-run estimate showed that money supply and all share index were significant with direct effect on corporate investment; while, real exchange rate and lending interest rate were significant with indirect effects. This suggests that stock market integration currently witnessing in Nigeria is tentative. The study concluded that the current growth witnessing by industrial corporate investment in Nigeria due to stock market integration is not sustainable. Therefore, recommended that the Nigerian Exchange Group’s management should ensure that stock market price exhibit low volatility rate by making sure that its stocks management policies reflect best global stock exchange practice.

The Impact of Remittances on Food Inflation in Bangladesh: An ARDL Approach

Purpose of the study: This study aims to investigate how Bangladesh's food inflation is affected by remittance influx. Methodology: The analysis utilizes secondary data collected from 2005 to 2022. In order to accomplish the goals, this study employs the food inflation rate as an endogenous variable, while workers' remittance, official exchange rate, and broad money supply are used as exogenous factors. The data is sourced from the World Development Index (WDI). In this investigation, co-integration is assessed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to provide an accurate outcome. Findings: The study's findings show that, both in the short and long term, the influx of remittances from migrants has a positive and considerable impact on driving up food inflation. This analysis shows that while having a negative short-term impact, the money supply and exchange rate have a long-term, positive, and considerable influence on food inflation. Application of the Study: This research proposes that promoting agricultural output and motivating recipients of remittances to invest in income-generating activities can effectively reduce their reliance on food consumption. If these recommendations are effectively followed, the inflow of workers' remittances will have a positive impact on the economy and contribute to reducing inflationary challenges. Originality of the study: By employing the most recent data set and cutting-edge methodology, the present research adds to the body of available research by demonstrating a link between food inflation and remittances.

Analysis of Determinants of the Rupiah Exchange Rate (Exchange Rate) against the US Dollar in 2016: Q1-2023: Q4

In foreign trade, exchange rates are one of the big factors that make a big difference. And although each country has its own currency, they all have different monetary values. To show how much one country's currency is worth compared to another country's currency, we need a measure called the exchange rate. The aim of this research is to find out how the exchange rate is related to things such as the amount of money in circulation, non-oil and gas exports, the balance of payments, and Indonesia's benchmark interest rate. A multiple regression analysis model was used to conduct the research. This research shows that the IDR/USD Exchange Rate is closely related to Indonesia's Balance of Payments, Money Supply (M2), Non-Oil and Gas Exports, and Reference Interest Rates. This relationship is real and good.

Pengaruh Jumlah Uang Elektronik yang Beredar di Masyarakat Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia

Economic growth is a value that shows the level of production of goods and services achieved by a country so that it can reflect the state of the country's economy. Payments using non-cash or frequently used money such as electronic money are considered more efficient and economical, so the value of electronic money transactions increases every year. This research analyzes the influence of the value of electronic money transactions, money supply and inflation on Indonesia's economic growth, in this case GDP. Secondary data from 2018 to 2022. The data analysis method used is multiple linear regression. From the results of the tests that have been carried out, values were foundelectronic money transactions, money supply (JUB), and inflation has a significant effect on economic growth in Indonesia. The higher the value of electronic money transactions and inflation can increase economic growth, but the greater the money supply, the lower economic growth (GDP).

Empirical analysis of the twin deficits hypothesis in the republic of North Macedonia

The twin deficits hypothesis is widely considered one of the most frequently employed phenomena in the economic literature. An econometric analysis of the twin deficit hypothesis is of special importance in understanding the perspective on macroeconomic stability in the Republic of North Macedonia. This paper aims to empirically test the validity of this hypothesis in the Republic of North Macedonia. To do so, we utilized quarterly data on Macedonia’s budget deficit, the current account deficit, exchange rate, interest rate, GDP, government expenditure, and money supply, starting from the first quarter of 2001 to the fourth quarter of 2022. Through the application of the ARDL model, the study found that between the variables taken into analysis, there exists a short and long-run relationship. More specifically exchange rate, government expenditure, and GDP result in improvement on the budget deficit, both in the short run and long run. While current account deficit, interest rate, and money supply result in worsening the budget deficit, both in the short run and long run.

Analysis of The Interaction of Monetary Policy and Islamic Investment Towards Indonesia's Economic Growth

Economic growth is the main measure of development success, and the results of economic growth will be enjoyed by the community either by itself or with government intervention. Economic growth is an important indicator in the real sector. The interaction between monetary policy and sharia investment in influencing Indonesia's economic growth is the main focus of this study. This study aims to analyze the effect of the interaction of monetary policy (interest rates, exchange rates and money supply) and the interaction of sharia investment (sukuk, sharia stocks, sharia mutual funds) on Indonesia's economic growth for the period 2000-2022. This type of research is quantitative research using time series data from secondary data with the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis method with the help of Eviews software. The results of this study indicate that the variables of short-term interest rates, SUKUK, sharia stocks, sharia mutual funds have a positive and significant effect on economic growth, while the rupiah exchange rate (KURS), the amount of money in circulation on economic growth show a negative and insignificant effect. The variables of long-term interest rates, rupiah exchange rates or KURS, the amount of money in circulation SUKUK, sharia stocks, mutual funds have a positive and significant effect on economic growth

Determinants of Inflation in Indonesia: Do Changes in World Oil Prices Matter?

This research was conducted to investigate the effect of world oil prices, interest rates, and money supply on inflation in Indonesia. This study uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analysis method. The data used were monthly data from January 2014-May to 2022. The results show that interest rates do not significantly affect inflation in the short or long run. Money supply has a negative relationship with inflation in the short and long run. In the short term, world oil prices have a negative effect on inflation. Meanwhile, world oil prices have a positive and significant relationship with inflation in the long run. This finding implies that it is necessary to emphasize policies other than interest rates when controlling inflation, such as more straightforward bureaucratic policies, ease of investment services, and a more effective import trading system. Bank Indonesia should also remain consistent and focus on prudence when implementing macroeconomic policies. The government must also consider the timeframe for determining the oil price policy because it has different short-term and long-term effects.

Exchange Market Pressure, Government Debt, US Money Supply, GDP Growth and Maritime Trade: An Empirical Evidence from India

Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) indices are used as comprehensive indicators of pressure on a currency. This paper examines the relationship of India government debt, India’s GDP, world money supply and world GDP with exchange market pressure in India. We use quarterly data from 1992: II to 2018: III. The results suggest a significant positive relationship between EMP and the India government debt and GDP and a negative relationship between EMP and world money supply. The relationship between EMP and world GDP is found to be insignificant. This study sheds light on the complex dynamics of EMP and its determinants in India, highlighting the impact of key economic factors and historical events on currency stability. These findings have important implications for policymakers and stakeholders in maritime trade, providing insights into the economic factors influencing currency stability in maritime trade.

Does Inflation Affect Emissions Reduction?

Inflation and sustainable development are two important factors in the economic development of most countries. This study will use empirical analysis to examine how macroeconomic variables, including the money supply (M2), economic growth rate (GRR), trade openness (TO), and inflation (INF), related to CO2 (the environment variable) in Vietnam from 1995 to 2022. The effect of detecting emitted CO2 can be considered both in the short and long term. This study uses the research analysis method of the self-healing distributed slow (ARDL) model. Several independent variations are proposed in the model, including M2 supply, economic growth rate, trade expansion rate, and issuance rate, to evaluate the influence of increasing emission waste. Research results show that the impacts are statistically significant in the short and long term. Finally, the study also offers some policy tips for Vietnam to adjust economic variables to achieve a better level of development and move towards sustainable economic development.

Impact of Sharia Stock Prices: A Study on Inflation, Exchange Rate, BI Rate, and Money Supply

This study aims to examine the effect of inflation, exchange rate, BI Rate, and the amount of money in circulation on Islamic stocks in companies listed on the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII). This study uses a sample of changes in the inflation rate, changes in the exchange rate, changes in the BI rate, changes in the money supply, and Islamic stock prices. This study uses secondary data, namely reports of changes in index obtained from the official website of the Indonesian Stock Exchange and the website of the Central Statistics Agency. With the results obtained in this study, inflation has a significant negative effect on Sharia Stock Prices, Exchange Rates have a significant negative effect on Sharia Stock Prices, amount of money in circulation has a significant positive effect on the price of Sharia shares. Inflation, Exchange Rate, BI Rate, and Money Supply have a simultaneous effect on Sharia Stock Prices in Companies Listed in the Jakarta Islamic Index. Managerial implications, especially for investment managers and fund managers in the Islamic capital market. Knowing the influence of inflation, exchange rates, BI interest rates, and money supply on Islamic stock prices allows managers to make better and more strategic investment decisions.

What is it good for? On the inflationary effects of military conflicts

Military conflicts and wars affect the development of a country in various dimensions. Rising inflation rates are a potentially important economic effect associated with conflict. High inflation can undermine investment, weigh on private consumption, and threaten macroeconomic stability. Furthermore, these effects are not necessarily restricted to the locality of the conflict but can also spill over to other countries. Therefore, to understand how conflict affects the economy and to make a more comprehensive assessment of the costs of armed conflict, it is important to take inflationary effects into account. To disentangle the conflict-inflation nexus and to quantify this relationship, we conduct a panel analysis for 151 countries over the period 1950–2019. To capture indirect inflationary effects, we construct a distance-based spillover index. In general, the results of our analysis confirm a statistically significant positive direct association between conflicts and inflation rates. Furthermore, we document a statistically significant positive indirect association between conflicts and inflation rates in uninvolved countries. These findings are robust across various model specifications. Moreover, our results indicate that conflict-induced inflation is not driven solely by the increase in the money supply.

THE IMPACT OF THE RECIPROCAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXCHANGE RATES AND INTEREST RATES ON THE BOND MARKET USING THE SVAR MODEL FOR CHINA FOR THE PERIOD FROM (2000-2020)

This study aims to illustrate the effect of the reciprocal relationship between the exchange rates and interest rates on the bond market by using the SVAR model for China during (2000 -2020), this is to analyze and measure the relationship between exchange rates and interest rates and showing their impact through changes in the bond index and monitoring the changes that occur in their traded prices in the financial markets. This study is based on three standard model estimations. The first model includes the effect of interest rates and inflation on the exchange rates. The second model shows the effect of the exchange rates and money supply on the interest rate. The third model includes the effect of exchange and interest rates on the bond index. The Structural Vector Auto Regression Model (SVAR) was used to test the long-term relationship between the variables of the study, in addition to the variance Decomposition analysis and the analysis of the Impulse response functions (IRF). The results showed that the reciprocal relationship between the exchange rates and interest rates is a positive inverse relationship, and the effect is in both directions. In other words, when the prevailing interest rate rises in the country, it leads to an appreciation in the value of the currency due to the increase in demand for the currency of that country, resulting in a depreciation in its exchange rate and conversely. In addition, the results indicated that the bond index is sensitive to any shock or any unexpected change in exchange rate and interest rate and that these shocks manifest in the short term and stabilize in the long term.

Analysis of the Causal Relationship between Money Supply, Foreign Reserves and Bank Credit in Oil Countries: Evidence from Iraq

This study investigates the causal relationships among money supply, foreign reserves, and bank credit in Iraq, a major oil-producing economy. Understanding these interconnected variables is crucial for effective monetary policy formulation and macroeconomic stability. this study employs the Toda-Yamamoto approach to Granger causality testing and quarterly data spanning from 2004 to 2022 to capture the dynamics following the Iraq War and explore the post-conflict economic landscape. Granger causality tests are conducted to determine the direction of causality among the variables. Impulse response functions and variance decompositions provide insights into the magnitude and persistence of shocks, shedding light on the relative importance of each variable in influencing the others. The empirical findings reveal a bidirectional causal relationship between money supply and foreign reserves, indicating that changes in one variable significantly influence the other. Additionally, a unidirectional causality is observed, running from foreign reserves to bank credit, highlighting the significance of foreign exchange reserves in facilitating bank lending. However, no causal link is detected between money supply and bank credit, suggesting that monetary policy may have limited direct impact on credit expansion in Iraq’s banking sector. These results have important policy implications for the Central Bank of Iraq in managing monetary policy tools and navigating the challenges of an oil-dependent economy. The study contributes to the literature on monetary economics in resource-rich countries and provides valuable insights for policymakers and researchers alike.

Decomposition of food price inflation in Sri Lanka

The recent upsurge in food prices in Sri Lanka has raised significant concerns, posing a threat to the food and nutritional security of the population. However, the causal factors driving this inflation still need to be better understood. Our study, utilizing Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), investigates the role of supply and demand-side determinants of food inflation. The study identified changes in exchange rate, agricultural wages, fuel prices, money supply, and fertilizer prices as key drivers of food inflation in Sri Lanka. Expansion of the money supply exerted the most substantial influence on food inflation in the long run. At the same time, changes in world market prices were found to be the most influential determinants of food inflation in the short run. Findings underscore the need for a comprehensive strategy that combines supply-side enhancements and demand-side management to control food inflation in Sri Lanka.

Modern Monetary Dynamics: Bids of Money Without Banks, Money Supply Theory, Money Multiplier, and Policy Implications

This research explores modern monetary dynamics with a focus on money supply without bank intermediation, money supply theory, the money multiplier mechanism, and the policy implications arising from this phenomenon. In the contemporary financial context, the emergence of financial technology (fintech) and cryptocurrencies has changed the traditional landscape of money supply, allowing money supply to occur without the direct role of banks. This article discusses the basic concepts of money supply theory, including the factors that affect the money supply in the economy. Furthermore, this study analyzes the money multiplier mechanism, which describes how money injected into the banking system can result in a larger increase in the money supply. Using both theoretical and empirical approaches, this study assesses the monetary policy implications arising from changes in the way money supply occurs, including the challenges for monetary authorities in controlling inflation and financial stability. The results show that this transformation in money supply requires innovative and responsive policy adaptations to maintain the effectiveness of monetary policy in maintaining economic stability.

Institutional Quality, Monetary Policy and Banking System Stability in Nigeria

The study used a Generalized Method of Moments to examine the effect of six IQ indices (voice and accountability, rule of law, regulatory quality, government effectiveness, corruption control and political stability and absence of violence) and MP tools (monetary policy rate, loan-deposit ratio, lending rate, logarithm of broad money supply and banking system liquidity ratio) on the Z-Score, a proxy for banking system stability. The study found that, among the six MP indices, only corruption control index has a positive and significant effect on bank stability (coefficient = 0.245124, p = 0.0042). Also, out of five MP variables, only the loan-deposit ratio has a significantly positive effect on bank stability (coefficient = 0.0070482, p = 0.0072). The effect of the other IQ and MP indicators are not significant enough for inference purposes. We conclude that IQ affects banking system stability positively and significantly. We also found that MP affects the stability of the banking system positively and significantly. We recommend, among others, that authorities should continue to pursue zero corruption in institutions and that banks should be mandated to improve on the existing anti-corruption measures. Also the Central Bank of Nigeria should continue to maintain the range of loan-deposit ratio that has existed for many years. There is the need to re-appraise other IQ and MP variables with no significant positive effect on banking system stability in Nigeria.

EVALUATION OF THE EFFECT OF EXPANSIONARY MONETARY POLICIY IMPLEMENTED DURING COVID-19 ON THE TÜRKİYE, EU AND US ECONOMIES

In this article, the effect of expansionary monetary policy implemented during the covid-19 on the Türkiye, the EU and the USA economies has been evaluated. The beginning of the pandemic covers the period between January 2020 and January 2024. The effects of the monthly percentage change in M3 money supply on unemployment, real economic growth and inflation are presented comparatively with graphs. As a result, while Türkiye was the country where the increase in M3 money supply increased inflation the most, the country where unemployment increased most rapidly at the initial phase of the pandemic was the USA. However, over time, the Fed managed to reduce unemployment to historical low levels with the measures it took. The consequence of the contractionary monetary policy after the pandemic, inflation has been brought under control and the option of reducing interest rates has recently come to the fore. Rising inflation in the EU was also taken under control, but unemployment still remained high

Impact of Financial Development on Economic Growth in Nigeria

In Nigeria, financial development has been fluctuating and has not made significant impact on economic growth as a result of inadequate credit to the private sector that is supposed to improve investment in the economy. This study therefore examines the impact of financial development on economic growth in Nigeria, covering 1986 to 2022. The autoregressive distributed lag model was employed and the long run result reveals that interest rate (INT), lagged value of broad money supply (M2(-1)) and domestic credit to private sector (DCP) have positive impacts on GDPG while broad money supply (M2) has a negative impact on GDPG. The short run estimate indicates that INT and DCP have positive impact on economic growth, while the coefficient of M2 has negative impact on economic growth in Nigeria. In conclusion, financial development can be said to contribute to economic growth. This is because, when government allocates adequate credit to private sectors, investments are made in enhancing the productivity that will encourage investments to take place. These investments will lead to employment generation, and in turn lead to output growth. In this regard, the study recommends that the Nigerian government should increase allocation of credit to the private sector in order to improve investment and ensure the autonomy of relevant monetary authorities.

Nonstationary Time Series Models Using ARDL and NARDL Estimation

The paper features an examination of the link between the behavior of the Money supply and Bank deposit in both an autoregressive distributed lag ARDL, plus a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag NARDL framework. The regression relationship between any two nonstationary time series suffer from the problem of superior regression and the results may be incorrect and unreliable, and to overcome this problem the aim of this paper was find a balanced relationship in the long - run between the variables of Money supply and Bank deposits using the method of cointegration by focusing on the behavior of the residuals of the cointegration model based on monthly data for a time series for the period (2010-2015). The time series stationary test was done by conducting the Unit Root Test based on the Philips-Perron test to find out the stationary of the variables and then detect the existence of the cointegration using the bounds testing, the tests showed the nonstationary of the time series at level I(0) and their become stationary after taking the first differences I(1). Bounds test showed the existence of cointegration .The Error correction model for the ARDL model was the best, despite the convergence of most of the test results for the two models, but the ARDL model was the more accurate with the speed of adjustment in the short -run to return to long-run equilibrium, as it reached (37%) and a period of two months for the ARDL model, while the percentage for the NARDL model was equal to (28%) and a period of time of approximately three and a half months.