Monetary Theory Research Articles

Роль банків у процесах тінізації економіки України

Introduction. The relevance of the article is due to the growing role of banking institutions in the process of shadowing the Ukrainian economy, which negatively affects the financial stability of the state. Problem Statement. The shadow economy has been identified as one of the main threats to the economic stability and security of the state. The study of the role of banking institutions in illegal transactions by entities whose purpose is money laundering, using various schemes and methods of financial fraud, is considered from the standpoint of substantiating directions and effective tools for countering shadowing of the economy. The implementation of such measures at the national and corporate level in accordance with international norms will make it possible to strengthen control over banking transactions, increase stability of the banking and financial systems and, ultimately, improve the level of economic security of the country. Purpose. Analysis of the role of banking institutions in the shadow economy, justification of directions and tools for counteracting the participation of banks in the shadow economy. Methods. The methodological basis of the study is the fundamental provisions of economic theory, theories of management and state regulation of the economy, economic and mathematical modeling, the theory of money, finance and credit, scientific achievements on the shadow economy and measures to counteract its manifestations. Results. The study identifies the role of banking institutions and proposes a typology of forms of their participation in the shadow economy, including: legalization of proceeds of crime; use of correspondent accounts; use of fictitious companies and front persons; offshore accounts; lending and deposit operations of banks; securities manipulation; and other financial fraud. The impact of these mechanisms on the economic stability of the state and the banking system is analyzed. A comparative analysis of international experience in combating money laundering is carried out, and effective tools for preventing shadow operations are identified. The trends and factors of shadowing the Ukrainian economy are analyzed. To assess the impact of banking institutions on the spread of the shadow economy, it is proposed to use the Simpson distribution for shadow cash flows and discount rates with the participation of banking institutions. The instruments of counteracting the participation of banks in the processes of shadowing the Ukrainian economy are substantiated. Conclusions. Further research is planned to focus on the impact of modern digital technologies, such as blockchain and cryptocurrencies, on money laundering through banking institutions. A promising area is the development of innovative methods of financial monitoring and identification of suspicious transactions, in particular with the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning. It is also important to study the effectiveness of international cooperation and develop recommendations for improving the legislative framework for combating money laundering through banking institutions.

Foundations of Market Power in Monetary Economies

We study the foundations of firms' market power in a continuous-time model where agents are price-makers who interact explicitly with each other. Market power arises from the existence of rents, the size of which depends on consumers' outside options, and firms' ability to appropriate these rents through rent seeking. We study how measures of market power (e.g., markups, concentration) are affected by search frictions, monetary policy, and self-fulfilling beliefs. An increase in the nominal interest rate affects market power by changing consumers' payment capacity and the value of their outside options, and by altering firms' rent-seeking behavior.

Indie economics: social purpose, lay expertise and the unusual rise of modern monetary theory

ABSTRACT We argue that the IPE literature on economic expertise has been characterised by ‘methodological elitism’ that makes it ill equipped to account for the influence of heterodox and grassroots forms of expertise. To remedy this, we posit a theoretical framework that emphasises the tensions between two forms of professional legitimacy. One is internal legitimacy and it is rooted in appeals to scientific objectivity, political neutrality and high professional barriers of entry. However, internal legitimacy may clash with external legitimacy, which is a function of a clear articulation of social purpose. Taking the surprising rise of Modern Monetary Theory as a case study, the paper makes two claims. First, its ideas did not coalesce into a distinctive heterodox brand of economics through traditional mechanisms like academic peer-review and citation networks, but through intense online activity. Second, the messaging that spurred MMT consistently combined constitutive claims with explicit declarations of social purpose. The result was an open project with a broad normative appeal, which successfully enrolled a large group of passionate followers and co-creators. To date, IPE scholars have been blind to such alternative forms of knowledge production.

Retrospectives: Friedman and Schwartz, Disaggregated

What was the contribution of Anna Schwartz to the landmark book she co-authored with Milton Friedman, A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960? A close examination of archival evidence suggests three primary contributions Schwartz made to the work, and to Friedman’s career more generally. The first was meeting the classic challenge of quantitative economic history: going into the field to locate and collect archival data that had been assembled for purposes unrelated to economic research, and deciding how best to use that data. Second, Schwartz had a decades-long role as technical sounding board and shaper of the statistical approach taken in the book. Schwartz’s third and arguably greatest contribution was to transform A Monetary History of the United States into a compelling narrative argument that made an impact far beyond the economics profession. Together, these findings show Schwartz to be a scholar who made significant and lasting contributions to monetary economics, economic history, and the broader field of economics.

Monetary Policy Instruments and Financial Performance of the Banking Industry in Kenya

The Kenyan banking sector has faced significant volatility in recent years, notably marked by a decline in Return on Assets (ROA). This decrease reflects the sector's struggles with rising inflation, currency depreciation, and increased non-performing loans. Economic uncertainties and tighter global monetary policies have compounded these challenges, resulting in a more unstable financial environment. This volatility underscores the sector's sensitivity to both domestic and international economic conditions. In response, this research aimed to investigate the effect of monetary policy instruments on the financial performance of banks in Kenya. The study sought to analyze the effect of lending rates, money supply, open market operations (OMO), and the Central Bank Rate (CBR) on banks' financial performance. Anchored on four relevant theories—the Loanable Funds Theory, Quantity Theory of Money, Keynesian Economics, and Zero Bound Theory. The research utilized a causal design and a multiple linear regression model. Covering all 42 banks operating in Kenya from January 2009 to December 2023, the study employed secondary data. The correlation analysis reveals significant relationships between the monetary policy instruments and the financial performance of commercial banks in Kenya. Lending rates demonstrate a positive relationship with financial performance, suggesting that higher rates may benefit banks’ profitability. In contrast, both money supply and central bank rate show negative associations with financial performance, implying that increases in these variables might hinder profitability. Additionally, the analysis indicates a positive link between open market operations and bank performance, highlighting the varied effects of these monetary instruments on the banks' financial outcomes. Collectively, these insights underscore the interconnectedness of these monetary policy instruments and their impact on the financial performance of banks in Kenya. Given the complex interplay of these factors, policymakers should adopt a holistic view, regularly reviewing and adjusting policies to maintain economic stability while supporting a robust banking sector.

Paul Davidson (1930–2024) and the founding of Post Keynesian economics

Paul Davidson was a critical figure in the preservation of John Maynard Keynes’s ideas, sticking with them when they were out of fashion. He was also key to the survival of the Post Keynesian school. Davidson endorsed Keynes’s liquidity preference theory of interest, and he emphasized fundamental uncertainty as a central feature of economic reality, essential to making sense of a monetary economy. His greatest legacy is the Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, the intellectual home for a generation of Post Keynesian economists. Without his efforts, the heterodox economics community would be significantly smaller than it is now.

Bitcoin: an alternative to fiat money? A post-Keynesian perspective

Motivation: This paper addresses the ongoing debate surrounding Bitcoin’s potential to function as an alternative to state-issued fiat currencies. With the advent of Bitcoin and its increasing global prominence, it is essential to explore its viability, particularly in light of its formal adoption in El Salvador as legal tender. The limited supply and decentralized nature of Bitcoin present a significant departure from traditional monetary systems, which raises questions regarding its capacity to fulfill the roles of money under Modern Monetary Theory (MMT).Aim: The primary goal of this paper is to critically examine whether Bitcoin can serve as a functional replacement for fiat money. Using a post-Keynesian analytical framework, this study investigates Bitcoin’s ability to meet the requirements of sovereign money, particularly within the theoretical framework of MMT. The analysis focuses on Bitcoin’s decentralized issuance, limited supply, and its role in fiscal policy and credit creation.Materials and methods: This research employs a critical literature review and a case study analysis, using the framework of MMT and post-Keynesian endogenous money theory to assess Bitcoin’s economic implications and its real-world application in El Salvador’s Bitcoin Law. The study analyzes Bitcoin’s economic implications based on the endogenous money supply model and evaluates its impact on government fiscal policy, credit markets, and economic stability in both theoretical and practical contexts, with a special focus on El Salvador’s Bitcoin Law.Results: The analysis reveals significant limitations in Bitcoin’s ability to function as a fiat currency. Its rigid supply and speculative nature hinder its capacity to serve as a medium of exchange, store of value, and unit of account, as envisaged by MMT. The study concludes that Bitcoin’s decentralized nature and deflationary design pose challenges for its broader adoption as state money, particularly in managing aggregate demand and economic crises.

The Role of AI in Shaping Our Future: Super-Exponential Growth, Galactic Civilization, and Doom

The present study investigates the potential impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the future trajectory of human civilization. It focuses on topics such as super-exponential growth, the potential emergence of a galactic civilization, and the associated "doom" hazards. A significant advancement in machine intelligence with human-like consciousness, strong artificial intelligence (AI), also known as artificial general intelligence (AGI), creates new opportunities and capacities. There's growing anxiety about the risk that weak AI will eventually become strong AI. Every year, new transformer models that are more like human interactions are being created, and we have already witnessed some indications of AGI. It is anticipated that AI will reach a "singularity" and advance on its own without assistance from humans. This thesis explores the theoretical and practical foundations, model building blocks, development processes, challenges, and ethical issues surrounding the creation of Consciousness AI (AGI). This paper examines the meaning of the term "technological singularity," the various types of singularities that have no point of return idea, the philosophical risks associated with the development of AI, and the implications of AI singularity for monetary theory and the new economic order. As a new perspective on the deployment of ethical AI in the face of tremendous technological advancements, the study not only contributes to the theoretical discourse but also explores the possible practical implications of AI on our shared future. Several obstacles to AI advancement are covered in the paper, along with prospective directions for future research.

Microfinance Providers and Rural Lending in the Province of Carniola Before 1914: a Case Study of the District Credit Cooperative Litija

The study provides new insights and compares two different types of microfinance intermediaries and their role and impact on the economic and financial situation of the rural population before the beginning of World War I. The abolition of serfdom in the Habsburg monarchy in 1848 had a significant impact on traditional life in the second half of the 19th century. Peasants became landowners, and their participation in the market and monetary economy became crucial. The development of microfinance intermediaries, such as savings banks and credit cooperatives, was essential for the financial inclusion of the rural population. The article shows the development of credit operations in a rural environment using the example of the District Credit Cooperative Litija.

On the limits of economic activity: bridging degrowth and modern monetary theory for socio-ecological sustainability and justice

This paper advances recent work exploring synergies and tensions between two schools of political-economic thought—degrowth and modern monetary theory (MMT)—and posits that this synergy warrants closer attention from International Political Economy and Environment (IPEE) scholars. Thus far, degrowth policies have largely been proposed upon the assumption that governments are limited in budgetary terms. MMT theorists have offered an alternative perspective on fiscal policy space but generally provide insufficient ecological considerations. This paper asks how each school’s underlying assumptions about the limits of economic activity might inform the other’s framework of action. We find that while there are tensions between the two schools’ economic philosophies, there are possibilities for cross-fertilization, which ought to interest IPEE scholars. MMT could engage degrowth’s perspective of ecological limits and global socio-ecological justice in its discussions about what economies can ‘afford’, whereas degrowth could use MMT insights to shift from a ‘pay for’ to a ‘resource’ frame, while centering abundance before limits. Meanwhile, IPEE can provide insights to an MMT-informed degrowth transition by grounding this debate in material analyses of class and power. Our findings suggest that degrowth and MMT could provide a normative direction for IPEE research centered around meeting material needs within planetary boundaries.

The Mediating Effect Of Market Liquidity On The Relationship Between Financial Liberalization And Stock Market Returns Among East Africa Community Member Countries

The motivation for this study stems from the critical role of financial markets in economic development and the need to understand the factors influencing stock market performance in the East African Community (EAC) member countries. Financial liberalization, market liquidity, and macroeconomic stability are pivotal in shaping stock market returns. However, empirical studies examining these relationships within the EAC context are limited, prompting this comprehensive analysis. The general objective of this study was to investigate the effect of financial liberalization, market liquidity, and macroeconomic factors on stock market returns among EAC member countries. The study was anchored on the theory of financial liberalization, neoclassical theory, efficient market hypothesis, behavioral finance theory, and the general theory of employment, interest, and money. Data were collected from secondary sources, including financial reports, stock exchange databases, and relevant economic databases, covering the period from 2002 to 2021.The study employed fixed-effects regression models, chosen based on the Hausman specification test, to control for unobserved heterogeneity across countries. Baron and Kenny’s approach was used to test for mediation and moderation effects. The analysis involved examining the direct and, mediating relationships between the key variables. The findings revealed that financial liberalization significantly and positively affects stock market returns. Conversely, market liquidity was found to mediate this relationship, enhancing the positive effects of financial liberalization. The study concludes that financial liberalization is a crucial determinant of stock market performance in the EAC region. Market liquidity plays a significant role in amplifying the benefits of financial liberalization. For policymakers, the study recommends policymakers in EAC should focus on developing infrastructure that supports efficient trading systems. This recommendation is based on the finding that higher market liquidity significantly boosts the positive effects of foreign assets and liabilities on stock market returns

Georg Friedrich Knapp's Legacy to Modern Monetary Theory: A Reconsideration

This article is a reassessment of the relation between Georg Friedrich Knapp and Modern Monetary Theory, a contemporary strand of economics that, under the term chartalism coined by Knapp, is presented by its proponents as a continuation of his 1905 State Theory of Money. It shows that, contrary to Modern Monetary Theory, which proposes a policy-oriented monetary view of public deficit, Knapp's scientific aim is restricted to finding a generally valid concept of means of payments. Different meanings of the terms chartalism and money also separate the two theories. However, both share an understanding of the use of money as driven by taxes and a general concept of means of payment as a situational counterclaim over a central issuer, be it private or public. In their view, private money always holds subordinate rank inside public monetary systems because of imposed convertibility into state currency. Despite such theoretical convergence, the article shows that Knapp's chartalist theory was not rediscovered from oblivion in the mid-1990s when Modern Monetary Theory made its appearance, in which it arguably played no decisive role.

Money/Asset Ratio as a Predictor of Inflation

This paper modifies the quantity theory of money to forecast inflation, relating the latter to scale variables such as monetary aggregate M2 and government bonds that measure the money demand for asset transactions. The out-of-sample forecast results show that at least since the early 1990s, the money/asset model that uses the money supply/government debt ratio as a predictor has been significantly improved upon univariate and multivariate models, such as Phillips curve and term spread models, for forecasting U.S. inflation over one- to three-year horizons. In using real-time vintage data, I find that, since 2000Q1, the forecasts derived from the money/asset model have slightly improved upon those from the Greenbook in forecasting quarter-over-quarter CPI inflation at short horizons, from two- to four-quarter. These results imply that the Federal Reserve can use the money supply/government debt ratio to forecast and control the inflation rates, coordinating monetary policy with fiscal policy. Moreover, the money supply/government debt ratio can partly explain the U.S. inflation dynamics from the early 1960s until COVID-19.

A minor masterpiece? Reconsidering De ponderibus et mensuris by Juan de Mariana

AbstractThe article investigates a little‐known work titled De ponderibus et mensuris [On Weights and Measures] written by Juan de Mariana in 1599. It contains the embryo of his future monetary theories, and has other interesting aspects, not only juridical and historical but also epistemological. Significant points of convergence with the early modern mathematics and abacus tradition make it unique. Apart from its stylistic, pedagogical and technical originality, this work also appears as a watershed for the evolution of economic science, its language and methodology.

Chartalism in Ancient China: A Retrospective of Monetary Thought

Abstract Chartalism is an influential and continuous tradition of monetary thought in ancient China. It dates back to the earliest Chinese text on monetary thought and continued into the Qing Dynasty. A vast body of related literature can be found across ancient Chinese dynasties. Chartalism in ancient China had the following main propositions. First, money originated as an invention of ancient monarchs and is a creature of the state. The second is the nominal theory of money: useless metal can function as money and become a tool of state intervention in the economy through state support. Third, the right to issue money should be monopolized by the state; otherwise, the state's monetary policy will be interfered with by other currencies. Fourth, an important monetary policy is the government's buying and selling of commodities countercyclically by issuing and receiving money, thus stabilizing prices. Fifth, the circulation process of sovereign money consists of two parts: the state's minting of coins (or issuing of paper money) and spending are the outflow of money, and levying monetary taxes (or selling goods) is the inflow of money. The state stabilizes the value of money by intervening in the circulation process.

A Problem as Much of Economic Theory as of Statistical Technique? The Walsh-Edgeworth Debate on Index Numbers, 1921–25

Abstract Correa Moylan Walsh (1862–1936) was a monetary economist of the early twentieth century, mostly remembered for his contributions to the theory of index numbers. Francis Ysidro Edgeworth (1845–1926) was a renowned mathematical economist, remembered as one of the great masters of the discipline. Walsh was an adamant defender of a deterministic, test approach to the theory of index numbers, whereas Edgeworth favored probabilistic approaches and thought index-number theorists should not close themselves to alternative methods. Holding contrasting views about the making of index numbers, they engaged in a fierce debate in the first half of the 1920s—a period marked by several quarrels on the subject. The main points in dispute between Walsh and Edgeworth were the existence of an ideal formula for index numbers and the use of probability in the measurement of price variations. The goal of this article is to explore this debate and its underpinnings. It is argued that the main points of contention between them relate to their conflicting perspectives on the nature of index numbers.

Numismatics of Sallarids

Introduction. The goal of the research is to reveal data on coinage and trade routes during the period of the Sallarids (the Musafirids, the Kangarids). Based on unique numismatic facts – both individual coins and coin hoards found in Azerbaijan and European countries – the author made an attempt to clarify and localize mints, the names of territorial regions (“Azerbaijan” and “Arminiyya”), as well as trade routes. Methods and materials. Referring to the comparative method, the author explained basic conclusions about the monetary economy of the period. Coins of the Sallarids period were used as actual material. Analysis and results. The coins minted during the mentioned period are not only the facts confirming local coinage (the statehood), but also unique examples of trade routes, beliefs, and hereditary authority, including the calligraphy of Azerbaijan in the Middle Ages. Such findings having come down to our time are manifesting rich silver mines and the handiwork of local artisans, as well. Rulers of the Sallarids dynasty, on behalf of whom (sometimes together with their heir or vizier) the coins had been minted in several towns of historical Azerbaijan, benefited from the right of “coin” (coining by the name of the supreme ruler). Founding such coins together with the coins of the other medieval Islamic rulers both in Azerbaijan (Nakhchivan) and in European countries (Switzerland, Estonia, and different areas of Russia) proves extensive trade relations of Azerbaijan with other countries. Various museums and collections currently preserve these coins, which researchers study and showcase in fascinating exhibitions and expositions. The author of the article promotes these facts when teaching the subjects “Numismatic of Azerbaijan” and “Caucasus numismatic” at the Western Caspian University (Baku, Azerbaijan).

Optimal Short-Term Inflation Rate Forecasting Model in Kenya: in Depth Analysis

Purpose: The Kenya economy experienced an increase in the price of basic commodities, increased unemployment rates and consequently reduced real wage levels due to job cuts. An accurate forecast of this unprecedented inflation rate could have cushioned the Kenyan population from its effects. Uncertainty over future inflation forecasting has caused detrimental and negative impact not only globally but also in the Kenyan economy. Combining several techniques of forecasting is an instinctual way to improve prediction performance as the limitations of one method are compensated by the strength of the other model. The general objective of the study was to develop an optimal model of forecasting short term inflation rate in Kenya. The specific objectives were to establish models of forecasting short term inflation rate using SARIMA, GARCH and hybrid SARIMA-GARCH family Models, select optimal model amongst the three models and Predict 12 months ahead inflation rate using the optimal model. Scope of the study from 2005 January to 2024 July. The study was anchored on monetary theory of inflation, Keynesian theory of inflation as well as rationale expectation theory of inflation. Methodology: Data was sourced from KNBS and CBK. The study was guided by positivism research philosophy. Explanatory research design was used in this study. Target population was 230 monthly observations. Sample and sampling techniques used was time series. PACF, ACF Dfuller, Kpss test, Philips perron test indicated the data was stationary after 1ST differencing. Findings: Statistic validation test results indicated SARIMA’s (1,1,1)(1,1,)12 adjusted 2 R was perfectly 1 indicating all variations in squared residuals were explained by lagged residuals. P- value for lagged squared residuals were significant at (0.00). F-statisticvalue was significant (0.020) suggesting overall model fit. Model stability test AR roots polynomial lied outside the unit circle. eGarch(1,1) model with lowest aic -0.534 was best in Garch Family models. Hybrid Sarima((1,1,1),(1,1,1) eGARCH(1,1) was identified. Comparison of Sarima(1,1,1)(1,1,1)12, eGARCH (1,1) and Hybrid Sarima((1,1,1),(1,1,1)12 eGARCH(1,1) using forecast accuracy revealed that hybrid model was the optimal model with lowest MAE 0.166 and RMSE 0.259. Diagnostic checks The Ljung- Box test (LL) and Q2 indicated non-significant autocorrelation p- value were greater than 05% indicating that the models residuals were white noise. The DOF/GED parameter (4.144466*, 1.101958, 6.977499) represented the degrees of freedom for the tdistribution and the coefficients where significant at 0.05% meaning the model’s assumptions for normal distributions were met. The coefficients of AR Normal 0.048140, T-Student −0.031854, GED −0.02396 and MA Normal 0.055167 ,T-Student 0.059645, GED 0.051390 terms were significant at 5%. Recommendations: The results implied that the model predicted a decrease in the Kenya’s inflation rate for the next 12 months. The study recommended that inflation rate would be hovering below an average rate of 10 within the next 12 months with high volatility up to July 2025 and policy makers should use this prediction for planning in order to maintain Kenya’s macroeconomic stability. Policy makers were also advised to use the hybrid model to forecast short term inflation rate 12 months ahead and in future years. The benefits of the study were added knowledge of hybridizing to researchers and to policy makers. This study therefore provided better inflation forecasts (Kenya) to be used for strategical planning for short -term effects of inflation by the government.

55th Konstanz Seminar on Monetary Theory and Policy 2024

55th Konstanz Seminar on Monetary Theory and Policy 2024

The Monetary Theory of Production and the Supermultiplier: What Determines Savings?

ABSTRACT The paper presents a closed-economy stock-flow consistent model aimed at outlining the natural synthesis between two fundamental pillars of the post-Keynesian approach: the supermultiplier (SM) model and the monetary theory of production based on the notion of endogenous money. Such integration allows the defining of the whole economic mechanism describing the financing of autonomous components and investments, as well as the determination of output and saving within a monetary economy of production. Our contribution argues that the endogenous money theory plays a non-ancillary role within the SM approach. By comparing different scenarios describing the financing of autonomous components of demand and investments (bank loans, retained profits, CB, and equity emissions), we point out that the endogenous process of money creation is the only structural mechanism through which the autonomous components can exist and be independent of current income, and Keynesian causality materializes in the long-run. In general, it is the initial finance of investments and autonomous components through endogenous money that allows them to be ex-post founded by household saving. Conversely, the initial finance through the existing stock of wealth, although it does not intact the investments-saving causality, can be considered only a temporary spin-off of the endogenous money process.