Monetary Policy Reaction Research Articles

Monetary policy reaction function in emerging economies: an empirical analysis

Monetary policy reaction function in emerging economies: an empirical analysis

Asset prices, regime switches, and monetary policy: evidence from China

ABSTRACT This paper develops a regime-switching DSGE model that can capture time-varying volatilities in economic activity and monetary policy. The model is then used to study regime switches in macroeconomic dynamics and monetary policy in China. The results suggest a better fitness of the regime-switching model than conventional constant-parameter models. We also find notable differences in macroeconomic dynamics and monetary policy reactions between high and low volatility regimes. Further counterfactual analysis suggests that, at least in an environment with regime-switching volatilities, the optimal reaction of monetary policy involves responses to asset price variations. The findings of the paper shed new light on the regime-switching properties of the economy and the optimal choice of monetary policy within this context.

Monetary policy reaction function: A Bayesian analysis for the BRICS.

This study estimates the monetary policy reaction function (MPRF) in a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework using Bayesian analysis for the emerging economies. DSGE models are suitable for the policy analysis because of their simplicity and prominent role of forward-looking variables. This is a pioneer study investigating the combined effects of credit spreads, fiscal imbalances, and monetary autonomy on interest rates for BRICS member countries. Using real data for the period 1970-2021, the posterior estimates confirm that both credit spread and fiscal imbalance significantly contribute to fluctuations in output, inflation, and interest rates in all the sample economies. The estimates show that fluctuations in the inflation rate are due to supply shocks. The empirical estimates also reveal that fiscal imbalances shock significantly affect output in Brazil, India, and South Africa, whereas, based on real data inflation and interest rate are significantly affected by fiscal imbalance shocks in China and South Africa. Yet, the findings suggest that the effects of various shocks on output and interest rates vary across countries.

Monetary Policy Reaction to COVID-19 and Their Economic Impact in Central America and the Dominican Republic

Monetary Policy Reaction to COVID-19 and Their Economic Impact in Central America and the Dominican Republic

Macroeconomic effects of carbon transition policies: An assessment based on the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model with a disaggregated energy sector

We assess the macroeconomic effects of carbon transition policies aimed at mitigating climate change in the euro area. To this end, we augment the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) with a framework of disaggregated energy production and use, which distinguishes between “dirty” and “clean” energy. Our central transition policy is that of a permanent increase in carbon taxes, which are levied as a surcharge on the price of dirty energy, combined with a price-preserving fall in fossil resource supply. Our findings suggest that increasing carbon taxes to an interim target level consistent with the transition to a net-zero economy entails a transitory rise in inflation and a lasting, albeit moderate decline in GDP. We show that the short and medium-term effects depend on the monetary policy reaction, the path of the carbon tax increase and its credibility, while expanding clean energy supply is key for containing the decline in GDP. Undesirable distributional effects can be addressed by appropriately redistributing the fiscal revenues from the carbon tax increase across households.

Hawkish shift in Ghana’s central bank’s monetary policy reaction function: a fiscal connection

ABSTRACT This study examines Ghana’s central bank’s monetary policy under Ghana’s inflation-targeting (IT) monetary policy regime since 2002. We find that Ghana’s central bank pursued a passive monetary policy under the unofficial IT monetary policy regime and hence cannot explain the decline in Ghana’s inflation rate during this period. We also find that Ghana’s central bank switched its monetary policy from passive to active under the official IT monetary policy framework, and hence cannot also explain Ghana’s rising inflation rate observed during this period. We provide evidence suggesting that Ghana’s central bank’s policy change might have been influenced by fiscal factors.

Fed and ECB reaction functions during quantitative easing: Three phases of monetary policy, both conventional and unconventional

Studying monetary authority response to macroeconomic imbalances using the interest rate as a proxy variable for monetary policy became ineffective after the financial crisis, when central banks exhausted the effective capacity of interest rates by reaching the zero lower bound (ZLB). In an effort to analyse the unconventional response deployed by central banks, we present and estimate a modified reaction function that uses money supply as the operational instrument of monetary policy for the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, and we verify its utility as an explanatory instrument for the behaviour of the two monetary authorities. By applying our strategy, it is feasible to identify both monetary policy reaction with regard to the economic situation as well as other possible monetary authority concerns regarding governments’ fiscal behaviour and the evolution of asset markets, regardless of the monetary policy applied at any given time.

Inflation targeting, exchange rate and output gap in Central and Eastern European countries

This paper aims at empirical assessment of monetary policy relationships in Central and Eastern European countries (Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Romania), which practise the monetary regime of inflation targeting. Using quarterly data for the period of 2004-2019, the authors examined the relationship between the output gap, nominal and real exchange rate misalignment, consumer price inflation and the central bank policy rate, using the panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model. According to estimates, the central banks of the CEE-4 countries react with an increase of their policy rate to the output gap and inflation, as implied by the Taylor rule. At the same time, a monetary reaction to nominal (real) exchange rate misalignment is lost in the estimates for the post-crisis period of 2010-2019. An increase of the central bank rates does not seem to have unfavourable output effects, while the nominal exchange rate is likely to depreciate with three to five quarter lags. However, there is evidence of the price puzzle when monetary tightening is followed by a counterintuitive increase in the inflation rate. In full accordance with the New Keynesian framework, inflation depends on the output gap, while being expansionary in the real sector. Evidence of the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to inflation is mixed. This article provides insights into the average monetary policy reaction function and its macroeconomic effects in the CEE-4 countries, with the value added in that following the Taylor rule does not guarantee effectiveness in tackling inflation in the presence of the price puzzle. Based on the estimated exchange rate effects on the output gap and inflation, deliberate currency appreciation resulting from the central bank foreign exchange interventions and/or fiscal austerity measures can be helpful for such a disinflation that minimises output losses.

Monetary Policy Reaction to Geopolitical Risks: Some Nonlinear Evidence

Monetary Policy Reaction to Geopolitical Risks: Some Nonlinear Evidence

Estimating fiscal multipliers for North Macedonia: a structural vector error correction model

The aim of this research is to evaluate the effectiveness of fiscal policy as a means of influencing output in North Macedonia. We apply a VEC model, and use quarterly data for the period 2000q1-2019q4. Our findings suggest that the possibility of fiscal policy to be used as a short-term stabilization tool was limited by the turbulent early phase of transition and several IMF arrangements; the exchange rate peg; and the scarcity of financial resources. The results of the baseline model suggest that a government spending shock is more effective as a stabilization fiscal tool in Macedonia, compared to a tax shock, although fiscal multipliers smaller than one suggest that the effectiveness of fiscal policy in boosting output is limited. The findings confirm the importance of structural characteristics, suggesing that not accounting for monetary policy reaction and debt dynamics will result in an overstatement of fiscal multipliers. In
 particular, the results suggest that the “crowding out” effect of fiscal policy due to interest rate pressure is absent and that monetary policy is accommodating an expansionary fiscal policy. The results of our investigation suggest that an increase in government expenditures will induce a significant increase in taxes. Moreover, although an increase in spending/taxes will result in a short-lived increase/decrease in public debt, as a priori expected, we find a long-equilibrium relationship between government spending and taxation suggesting that debt sustainability is not an issue in the case of Macedonia.

A monetary policy reaction function through Taylor rule vision: evidence from Tunisia

A monetary policy reaction function through Taylor rule vision: evidence from Tunisia

Inflation and systemic risk: A network econometric model

This paper builds a network econometric model capable of analysing the impact of inflation on systemic risk. Its main contribution is the identification of a robust inverse relationship which reverses when controlling monetary policy. This reveals that the former effect is due to monetary policy reactions to inflation. It is further analysed whether this effect comes from overindebtness as in a Minsky moment. There is no evidence supporting it, which suggests that mechanisms other than excess credit underlie such a relationship. The results presented in this paper are of particular importance for understanding monetary policy reactions to current inflationary cycles.

Fiscal Stimulus and the Systematic Response of Monetary Policy

Economic theory suggests that the effects of fiscal stimulus can vary substantially with the systematic response of monetary policy. Empirical estimates of the causal effects of fiscal shocks implicitly embed a particular monetary reaction: they provide treatment effects that average across in-sample monetary policy. Building on McKay and Wolf (2022), I discuss how evidence on monetary policy shocks can be used to predict the effects of fiscal stimulus under arbitrary monetary policy reaction. I review the underlying theory, propose a simple empirical strategy, and present an application.

Daily monetary policy reactions to the pandemic: The Australian case

In contrast to the more typical monthly series, Reserve Bank of Australia data offer a high frequency window into central bank actions following the onset of the pandemic. Daily observations demonstrate not only the absolute size of the Reserve Bank’s open market purchases but also a dramatic increase in the conditional variance identified under GARCH estimation. Regression analysis and impulse response functions reveal significant monetary policy responses to government support measures and exchange rate movements against the US dollar. Notwithstanding its overall highly expansionary monetary policy, the Reserve Bank appears to have tempered the pace of its open market purchases when either the government policy response intensified or currency depreciation increased.

Fiscal and monetary policy coordination and debt sustainability in the CEMAC zone: Evidence from a Markov regime-switching model

This paper investigates the nature of fiscal and monetary policy implemented in the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) and its impact on long-run debt sustainability. The study employs a two-state Markov regime-switching model to the fiscal and monetary policy reaction functions of the six CEMAC countries using time series data from 1970 to 2020. The fiscal regime is regarded as active if the coefficient of debt is positive, while it is considered passive if the coefficient is negative and significant. Regarding monetary policy, an active regime is reported if the coefficient of inflation is positive; otherwise, the monetary policy regime is regarded as passive. In addition, the transition probability and time-varying transition probability are estimated to assess the nature of policy-mix coordination. The findings highlight unsustainable fiscal regimes in Equatorial Guinea and Chad, balanced results for Gabon and Congo, while Cameroon and the Central African Republic have sustainable fiscal regimes. Concerning monetary policy, a sustainable monetary regime is found for Cameroon and Equatorial Guinea, with balanced results for Congo, while evidence of an unsustainable monetary regime is found for the Central African Republic, Chad, and Gabon.

The US, Economic News, and the Global Financial Cycle

We provide evidence for a causal link between the US economy and the global financial cycle. Using intraday data, we show that US macroeconomic news releases have large and significant effects on global risky asset prices. Stock price indexes of 27 countries, the VIX, and commodity prices all jump instantaneously upon news releases. The responses of stock indexes co-move across countries and are large - often comparable in size to the response of the S&P 500. Further, US macroeconomic news explains on average 23 percent of the quarterly variation in foreign stock markets. The joint behavior of stock prices, bond yields, and risk premia suggests that systematic US monetary policy reactions to news do not drive the estimated effects. Instead, the evidence points to a direct effect on investor’ risk-taking capacity. Our findings show that a byproduct of the United States' central position in the global financial system is that news about its business cycle has large effects on global financial conditions.

Price-level determinacy and monetary policy in a model with money and trend inflation

AbstractI examine how money and trend inflation shaped US macroeconomic dynamics during the Great Inflation. I develop a business cycle model with positive trend inflation where money is allowed (but not required) to play a role in determining the equilibrium values of inflation and output through non-separable utility, adjustment costs for holding real balances, and the monetary policy reaction function. The Taylor principle changes in this environment. Targeting money guarantees price determinacy even with trend inflation, but these results are sensitive to the inclusion of non-separability and portfolio adjustment costs. The framework is combined with Greenbook data that detect the role of money in the policy reaction function. The response to money was likely not sufficiently strong to complement the reaction to inflation and counteract the high trend inflation observed during the pre-Volcker period, which most likely led to price indeterminacy.

Hawkish Shift: Changes in Ghana's Central Bank Monetary Policy Reaction Function

Hawkish Shift: Changes in Ghana's Central Bank Monetary Policy Reaction Function

Daily Monetary Policy Reactions to the Pandemic: The Australian Case

Daily Monetary Policy Reactions to the Pandemic: The Australian Case

Challenges for global monetary policy in an environment of high inflation: the case of the euro area

The euro area has been particularly vulnerable to the shocks resulting from the pandemic and the war – contributing strongly to record-high inflation. This required a fast and decisive monetary policy reaction. The future monetary policy course will depend also on how these shocks, along with the fiscal and structural policies response, will affect the economic and inflation outlook.