Monetary Growth Model Research Articles

Editors’ Introduction

Editors’ Introduction

Money, random matching and endogenous growth: A quantitative analysis

In this study, we develop a search-and-matching monetary growth model to analyze the effects of inflation on economic growth and social welfare by introducing endogenous economic growth via capital externality into a two-sector search-and-matching model. We find that the channel through which inflation affects economic growth in the search-and-matching model is different from the traditional cash-in-advance model. To facilitate the calibration, we obtain an empirical estimate of the effects of inflation on economic growth using panel regressions. In the simulation analysis, we quantitatively evaluate the welfare effect of inflation in the search-and-matching endogenous growth model and compare it to a search-and-matching exogenous growth model. We find that the welfare effect of inflation is nonlinear in the endogenous growth model whereas it is linear in the exogenous growth model. Furthermore, we find that the welfare cost of inflation under endogenous growth is up to four times as large as the welfare cost of inflation under exogenous growth.

Consumption tax, seigniorage tax and tax switch in a cash-in-advance economy of endogenous growth

This paper studies the effects of alternative tax policies (a consumption tax, seigniorage tax, and tax switch) on economic growth under different methods of government budget adjustment in a monetary endogenous growth model with a labor–leisure choice and a cash-in-advance constraint which is only imposed on consumption. It is found that the validity of both the Mundell–Tobin effect and the consumption tax neutrality crucially depends on the adjustment methods used to maintain the balanced government budget. In addition, we find that a switch from a consumption tax to a seigniorage tax unambiguously enhances economic growth. This result stands in sharp contrast to that of Ho et al. (J Money Credit Bank 39:105–131, 2007), in that it does confirm the validity of the qualitative equivalence between the money-in-the-utility-function and cash-in-advance approaches in terms of the effect of tax shifting away from a consumption tax towards a seigniorage tax.

THE CASH-IN-ADVANCE CONSTRAINT IN MONETARY GROWTH MODELS WITH LABOR MARKET SEARCH

We study the sensitivity of the inflation–growth trade-off in monetary growth models to the introduction of search frictions in the labor market. We consider three types of endogenous growth models: (1) the AK model, (2) the Lucas supply-side model, and (3) the two-sector model of Jones and Manuelli. We show that the effects depend on the specification of the cash-in-advance constraint and the magnitude of the semi-interest elasticity of the income velocity. For the AK model, economic growth increases with higher inflation. For the other two models, growth declines for the case of the standard cash-in-advance constraint on consumption, whereas it either increases or decreases if money is introduced, as in the cash–credit good economy of Dotsey and Ireland, depending on the semi-interest elasticity of the income velocity. The welfare effects of inflation are shown to be economically significant in the presence of search unemployment.

The Macrodynamics of External Overborrowing and Systemic Instability in a Small Open Economy

The paper presents a monetary growth model for a small emerging economy with a currency board arrangement. The integration into global financial markets determines an acceleration of debt-creating capital inflows that boosts growth and the prospect of future profits, and leads to the building-up of large imbalances in the public and private sectors. Financial fragility undermines the state of confidence and determines an endogenous capital reversal. At this stage, the strong commitment to maintain the peg leaves no room for stabilization purposes and leads to systemic instability. We run a continuous-time estimation of the non-linear differential equations system of the model, with reference to Argentina during the years of the currency-board arrangement. We find two steady-state solutions, corresponding to a high-interest rate and a low-interest rate equilibrium, respectively. The local stability and sensitivity analysis show that both equilibria are unstable and that the system is intrinsically fragile. We show that even a tighter fiscal policy, according to the prescriptions of international institutions, results ineffective in improving stability.

Liquidity risk and financial competition: Implications for asset prices and monetary policy

This paper studies the implications of banking competition for capital markets and monetary policy. In particular, I develop a two-sector monetary growth model in which a group of agents is exposed to liquidity shocks and money is essential. Banks insure depositors against such risk and invest in the economy's assets. In this setting, I compare an economy with a perfectly competitive banking sector to an economy with a fully concentrated financial sector. Unlike previous work, banks can have market power in both deposits and capital markets. Compared to a perfectly competitive financial sector, I demonstrate that a monopolistic banking system can have substantial adverse consequences on capital formation, assets prices, and the degree of risk sharing. Furthermore, multiple steady-states can emerge and the economy becomes subject to poverty traps. More importantly, market power in financial markets may overturn the Tobin effect present under a perfectly competitive financial sector. This necessarily happens in economies with high degrees of liquidity risk and low levels of capital formation.

Friedman meets Becker and Mulligan in a monetary neoclassical growth model

We study a neoclassical growth model with the time preference determined by resources spent on imagining future pleasures along the line of Becker and Mulligan (Q J Econ 112:729–758, 1997). We introduce money into the economy via a cash-in-advance constraint and study the effect of higher seignorage taxes or higher monetary growth rates on capital, consumption and welfare in the long run. We find that if the fraction of investment constrained by cash is smaller than a threshold, the negative-monetary-growth Friedman (The Optimum Quantity of Money and Other Essays, 1969) rule does not hold and the optimal inflation rate is positive. Calibrating our model yields a mild optimal inflation rate per annum with a switch from zero inflation to optimal inflation creating a sizable welfare gain in terms of consumption equivalence.

The Cash-in-Advance Constraint in Monetary Growth Models

In most monetary models of economic growth, higher long-run inflation is associated with a decline in the growth rate and employment. We show that this result is sensitive with respect to the specification of the cash-in-advance constraint. We consider three types of endogenous growth models: 1) the AK-model, 2) the Lucas (1990) supply-side model, and 3) the two-sector model of Jones and Manuelli (1995). With the standard cash-in-advance constraint on consumption, higher inflation results in lower growth and employment in all three models, while, in the cash-credit good economy of Dotsey and Ireland (1996), the effect is the exact opposite.

Liquidity Risk and Banks' Asset Composition: Implications for Monetary Policy

Monetary growth models in which the government is a net debtor demonstrate that inflation adversely affects capital formation through the crowding out effect. Interestingly, the results are at odds with empirical evidence. In particular, recent studies point to an asymmetric relationship between inflation and the real economy across countries. Specifically, inflation and output are negatively correlated in poor countries. In contrast, inflation is associated with higher levels of economic activity in advanced economies. I present a monetary growth model with public debt, where the exposure to risk is inversely related to the level of income. In this setting, I demonstrate that the effects of monetary policy depend on the level of capital of the economy. In poor countries, banks' portfolios consist primarily of government liabilities. Therefore, a higher rate of money creation inhibits capital formation in these economies. In contrast, banks devote more resources toward productive uses in advanced countries. Consequently, monetary policy generates a Tobin effect.

Global growth, international trade patterns and national inflation policies with capital accumulation in a multi‐country economy

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine global monetary economic growth with free trade. It develops a multi‐country monetary growth model with capital accumulation to provide some insights into complexity of economic globalization with free trade and financial markets.Design/methodology/approachThe real aspects of the model is based on the neoclassical growth theory and monetary aspects of the model are based on the money‐in‐utility approach. The behavior of households is based on an alternative approach. The paper shows that the dynamics of the J‐country world economy can be described by 2J‐dimensional differential equations.FindingsThis paper simulates equilibrium and motion of the global economy with three, developed, newly industrializing, and developing countries and Cobb‐Douglas production functions. As the global monetary economic system is unstable, the perfectly competitive world economy may either experience unlimited growth or economic crisis. Because of the choice of the initial conditions and the parameters, the simulation demonstrates a situation of global economic declination. This paper also demonstrates, for instance, that the global economy worsens off as the developed economy reduces its propensity to save or increases its inflation policy.Social implicationsThis paper also tries to provide some possible implications of our model for the recent economic crisis. A policy implication of the results is that as global economies with free trade and financial markets are possibly structurally unstable and the global economy may suffer from economic declination, government interventions, and co‐operation among countries are necessary for global sustainable development.Originality/valueThe paper offers insights into the linkage between national monetary policies and global economic growth.

A Multi-country Monetary Economic Growth Model with International Trade and National Monetary Policies

This paper proposes a multi-country monetary growth model with capital accumulation. The real aspects of the model are based on the neo-classical growth theory. Money is introduced via the cash-in-advance (CIA) approach. We show that the dynamics of the J-country world economy can be described by 2J-dimensional differential equations. We also simulate equilibrium and motion of the global economy with three countries and Cobb–Douglas production functions. We demonstrate effects of changes in technology and inflation policy. For instance, our simulation demonstrates that as the developed economy improves its technology, its total output, product per worker and wage are increased over time; the corresponding variables of the other two economies are reduced. We also try to provide some possible implications of our model for the recent economic crisis.

Monetary Policy Rules and the Effects of Fiscal Policy

We explore the implications of adopting a Taylor-type interest-rate rule in a simple monetary growth model in which budget deficits are financed partly by unbacked government debt. To ensure uniqueness of the steady-state equilibrium, monetary policy cannot be either too or too passive. The effects of fiscal policy depend crucially on whether monetary policy is active or passive, and are independent of the tightness of monetary policy.

Exchange rate volatility and productivity growth: The role of financial development

The vast empirical exchange rate literature finds the effect of exchange rate volatility on real activity to be small or insignificant. In contrast, this paper offers empirical evidence that real exchange rate volatility can have a significant impact on productivity growth. However, the effect depends critically on a country's level of financial development. The results appear robust to time window, alternative measures of financial development and exchange rate volatility, and outliers. We also offer a simple monetary growth model in which real exchange rate uncertainty exacerbates the negative investment effects of domestic credit market constraints.

DOES MILITARY EXPENDITURE MATTER FOR INFLATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH?

This paper sets up a monetary endogenous growth model, and uses it to explain the ambiguous linkage between the military burden and the inflation rate observed in existing empirical studies. It is found that an expansion in the military burden has an ambiguous effect on the inflation rate depending upon the relative extent of two conflicting forces. More specifically, if the increase in the marginal benefit from holding money exceeds (falls short of) the increase in the marginal product of private capital, the inflation rate will rise (fall) in response. Moreover, it is found that an increase in the military burden will stimulate the balanced growth rate, confirming Benoit’s famous empirical findings.

Inflation, variability, and the evolution of human capital in a model with transactions costs

In a monetary growth model, I show that average inflation inhibits growth while inflation volatility enhances it. The effect of nominal volatility on human capital accumulation depends on the response of money demand and the corresponding extent of transactions costs rather than from a direct, precautionary motive.

The feedback channels in macroeconomics: analytical foundations for structural econometric model building

We investigate important macroeconomic and macroeconometric feedback channels in models that concern the dynamic interaction of the labor market, product market and the monetary and financial sector. The core of our study is an applied disequilibrium model of monetary growth of a small open economy. After surveying the feedback channels we consider a compact description of the intensive form of the model. We consider various types of subsystems, the integration of which is subsequently compared from the perspective of bifurcation diagrams that separate cases of asymptotic stability from stable cyclical behavior as well as pure explosiveness. In this way we lay out a research strategy, which will show, in contrast to what is generally believed, that applied integrated macrodynamic systems can have a variety of interesting attractors and transient dynamics, which are obtained in particular when locally explosive situations are turned into bounded dynamics by the addition of specifically tailored extrinsic nonlinearities.

Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development

This paper offers empirical evidence that real exchange rate volatility can have a significant impact on the long-term rate of productivity growth, but the effect depends critically on a country's level of financial development. For countries with relatively low levels of financial development, exchange rate volatility generally reduces growth, whereas for financially advanced countries, there is no significant effect. Our empirical analysis is based on an 83 country data set spanning the years 1960-2000; our results appear robust to time window, alternative measures of financial development and exchange rate volatility, and outliers. We also offer a simple monetary growth model in which real exchange rate uncertainty exacerbates the negative investment effects of domestic credit market constraints. Our approach delivers results that are in striking contrast to the vast existing empirical exchange rate literature, which largely finds the effects of exchange rate volatility on real activity to be relatively small and insignificant.

Distorting taxes and interest on reserves

Few governments in developed economies currently pay interest on reserves. However, Goodfriend (2001) [Goodfriend, M., 2001. Interest on reserves and monetary policy, mimeo, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond] concludes that it is a useful tool to implement monetary policy. In a monetary growth model with a financial intermediary and a firm who needs to borrow to pay wages, it is shown that paying interest on reserves financed by a labor tax reduces welfare.

Optimal monetary policy with heterogeneous agents: a case for inflation

This paper analyses the role of monetary policy in an overlapping-generations monetary growth model with two types of agents, who exhibit a different degree of altruism towards their descendants. It is shown that changes in the money growth rate have significant distributional effects. Furthermore, the optimal rate of monetary expansion is, in general, higher than the one implied by the Friedman rule and may, in fact, yield a small but positive rate of inflation, even though capital is invariant to changes in the money growth rate. Finally, this optimal rate of monetary expansion takes higher values as the society's aversion towards inequality increases. Copyright 2005, Oxford University Press.

On the relationship between growth and volatility

We study the relationship between output growth and output variability in a simple stochastic monetary growth model with nominal rigidities and learning-by-doing. We show that this relationship may be positive or negative depending on the impulse source of fluctuations.