Correct Moment Research Articles

Spacecraft and Instrument Photoelectrons Measured by the Dual Electron Spectrometers on MMS

AbstractSecondary electrons are continuously generated via photoemission from sunlit spacecraft and instrument surfaces. These particles can subsequently contaminate low‐energy channels of electron sensors. Spacecraft photoelectrons are measured at energies below that of a positive spacecraft potential and can be removed at the expense of energy resolution. However, fluxes of photoelectrons generated inside electron instruments are independent of spacecraft potential and must be fully characterized in order to correct electron data. Here we present observations of spacecraft and instrument photoelectron populations measured with the Dual Electron Spectrometers (DES) on NASA's Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission. We leverage observations from Earth's nightside plasma sheet taken during MMS commissioning and develop an empirical model of instrument photoelectrons. This model is used with DES velocity distribution functions to correct plasma moments and has been made publicly available on the MMS science data center for use by the scientific community.

Generalised analysis of compensating balancing sleeves with experimental results from a scaled industrial turbine coupling shaft

The paper furthers the analysis of a recently proposed balancing methodology for high-speed, flexible shafts. This mechanism imparts corrective balancing moments, having the effect of simulating the fixing moments of equivalent double or single encastre mounted shafts. This is shown to theoretically eliminate/nullify the first lateral critical speed, and thereby facilitate safe operation with reduced lateral critical speed margins. The paper extends previously reported research to encompass a more generalised case of multiple, concentrated, residual imbalances, thereby facilitating analysis of any imbalance distribution along the shaft. Solutions provide greater insight of the behaviour of the balancing sleeve concept, and the beneficial implications for engineering design. Specifically, (1) a series of concentrated imbalances can be regarded as an equivalent level of uniform eccentricity, and balance sleeve compensation is equally applicable to a generalised unbalanced distribution, (2) compensation depends on the sum of the applied balancing sleeve moments and can therefore be achieved using a single balancing sleeve (thereby simulating a single encastre shaft), (3) compensation of the second critical speed, and to a lesser extent higher orders, is possible by use of two balancing sleeves, positioned at shaft ends, (4) the concept facilitates on-site commissioning of trim balance, which requires a means of adjustment at only one end of the shaft, (5) the Reaction Ratio, RR, (simply supported/encastre), is independent of residual eccentricity, so that the implied benefits resulting from the ratio (possible reductions in the equivalent level of eccentricity) are additional to any balancing procedures undertaken prior to encastre simulation. Analysis shows that equivalent reductions in the order of 1/25th, are possible. Experimental measurements from a scaled model of a typical drive coupling employed on an industrial gas turbine package, loaded asymmetrically with a concentrated point of imbalance, are used to support the analysis and conclusions.

Digital signal processing of acoustic emission signals using power spectral density and counts statistic applied to single‐point dressing operation

Dressing is an important operation for the grinding process. Its goal is to recondition the wheel tool to re-establish its cutting characteristics, owing to the wear produced after successive passes. Monitoring systems that use acoustic emission (AE) have been studied to correlate the signals with several tool conditions. This study brings a new approach of processing AE signals with the purpose of identifying the correct moment to stop the dressing, which is essential in an automatic control system. From the AE signals collected in dressing tests with aluminium oxide grinding wheel and single-point dresser, spectral analysis was made through power spectral density, selecting frequencies bands that best characterise the process. The statistical parameter ‘counts’ was applied to the raw signal unfiltered and filtered in the selected bands in order to identify the tool condition and, in turn, towards a monitoring system implementation. Results showed an expressive relation between tool cutting conditions and processed signals in the selected bands. There was a great disparity of the filtered signals in the selected bands and signals unfiltered, reflecting that the filtered ones were more efficient in terms of process automation.

Vehicle handling and stability control by the cooperative control of 4WS and DYC

This paper proposes an integrated control system that cooperates with the four-wheel steering (4WS) and direct yaw moment control (DYC) to improve the vehicle handling and stability. The design works of the four-wheel steering and DYC control are based on sliding mode control. The integration control system produces the suitable 4WS angle and corrective yaw moment so that the vehicle tracks the desired yaw rate and sideslip angle. Considering the change of the vehicle longitudinal velocity that means the comfort of driving conditions, both the driving torque and braking torque are used to generate the corrective yaw moment. Simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed control algorithm.

Centroid moment tensor catalogue using a 3‐D continental scale Earth model: Application to earthquakes in Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands

AbstractAlthough both earthquake mechanism and 3‐D Earth structure contribute to the seismic wavefield, the latter is usually assumed to be layered in source studies, which may limit the quality of the source estimate. To overcome this limitation, we implement a method that takes advantage of a 3‐D heterogeneous Earth model, recently developed for the Australasian region. We calculate centroid moment tensors (CMTs) for earthquakes in Papua New Guinea (PNG) and the Solomon Islands. Our method is based on a library of Green's functions for each source‐station pair for selected Geoscience Australia and Global Seismic Network stations in the region, and distributed on a 3‐D grid covering the seismicity down to 50 km depth. For the calculation of Green's functions, we utilize a spectral‐element method for the solution of the seismic wave equation. Seismic moment tensors were calculated using least squares inversion, and the 3‐D location of the centroid is found by grid search. Through several synthetic tests, we confirm a trade‐off between the location and the correct input moment tensor components when using a 1‐D Earth model to invert synthetics produced in a 3‐D heterogeneous Earth. Our CMT catalogue for PNG in comparison to the global CMT shows a meaningful increase in the double‐couple percentage (up to 70%). Another significant difference that we observe is in the mechanism of events with depth shallower then 15 km and Mw < 6, which contributes to accurate tectonic interpretation of the region.

Toma de decisiones en cirugía coronaria. Indicaciones y resultados del tratamiento quirúrgico del paciente con cardiopatía isquémica

In the present report, we will make a review of the importance of the decisions making in the surgical treatment of the ischemic myocardiopathy. First, we will deal with the fundamentals of the indication of surgery, besides the importance of making it in a multidisciplinary way through the “Heart Team”. Second, we will help how to choose the correct moment of the surgical procedure, based on different factors. Finally, we will address the expectations of the surgical treatment from the point of view of the clinical cardiologist.

Adaptive optimal control for integrated active front steering and direct yaw moment based on approximate dynamic programming

In this paper, a novel adaptive optimal control algorithm based on approximate dynamic programming (ADP) approach is proposed for integrated active front steering (AFS) and direct yaw moment control (DYC). The corrective yaw moment and active steering angle are generated online without knowing system dynamics, which is realised by using a neural network (NN) identifier to identify the unknown system dynamics and a critic NN to calculate the optimal control action, respectively. Control commands are executed via active steering angle on front wheels and proper brake torque distribution on the effective wheels. Computer simulations under three different driving manoeuvres, i.e., lane change manoeuvre, step steer manoeuvre and sine with dwell manoeuvre, are carried out to evaluate the proposed control method. Simulation results show that the proposed ADP-based control method demonstrates improved tracking performance in terms of enhancing vehicle handling and stability performance when encountering the varying longitudinal velocity, the uncertain cornering stiffness and the different road/tyre friction coefficients. Model-free and self-adaptive properties of the proposed method provide a new solution to vehicle stability controller design instead of the commonly used model-based methods.

Adaptive optimal control for integrated active front steering and direct yaw moment based on approximate dynamic programming

In this paper, a novel adaptive optimal control algorithm based on approximate dynamic programming (ADP) approach is proposed for integrated active front steering (AFS) and direct yaw moment control (DYC). The corrective yaw moment and active steering angle are generated online without knowing system dynamics, which is realised by using a neural network (NN) identifier to identify the unknown system dynamics and a critic NN to calculate the optimal control action, respectively. Control commands are executed via active steering angle on front wheels and proper brake torque distribution on the effective wheels. Computer simulations under three different driving manoeuvres, i.e., lane change manoeuvre, step steer manoeuvre and sine with dwell manoeuvre, are carried out to evaluate the proposed control method. Simulation results show that the proposed ADP-based control method demonstrates improved tracking performance in terms of enhancing vehicle handling and stability performance when encountering the varying longitudinal velocity, the uncertain cornering stiffness and the different road/tyre friction coefficients. Model-free and self-adaptive properties of the proposed method provide a new solution to vehicle stability controller design instead of the commonly used model-based methods.

Comportamiento de los sellantes de vidrio ionomero de alta densidad. Estudio a 6 años.

Although high density glass ionomer cement (GICS) sealants have proved to be effective in pit and fissure caries prevention, there are very few studies with more than three years of duration and practically no discussions about resealing convenience and the correct moment to do it. The aim of this study is to carry out a six years observation study to evaluate the retention and caries prevention effect of GICS. During a three years previous study (2007 – 2010) performed by the authors comparing the effectiveness of resin based sealants and GICS, developed by odontology students during a community dental school program, only the partially or totally lost sealants of 6-8 year old children were resealed. A longitudinal and observational study during 2010 and 2013 completed the six year. 25 children participate in this experience, totaling 42 molars. Caries did not appear in any molar. Two molars (in same child) were sealed with resin by a private dentist. In the last year (2013) the total of present sealants have almost disappeared (2,6%). No significant association was found between the sealant performance and the number of resealing (Fisher test p-value = 0,3627). Fisher test does not detect association between age and resealing (p-value = 0,6261). The probability of a six years old needing a resealant was 2,450 times than an 8 year old child. CONCLUSIONS: High density GICS with digital pressure technique is an effective measure of pit and fissures caries prevention in permanent molars. The presence, partial or total absence of sealant is not a success or failure indicator. The study could not prove that the resealing influenced the final result but it might have collaborated in achieving the biological objective. More comparative studies are necessary to evaluate the effectiveness and moment of resealing.

"For Me It Was a Key Moment of Therapy": Corrective Experience From the Client's Perspective.

Despite recent attempts to develop a consensus definition, questions still remain as to what constitutes corrective experiences (CEs) in psychotherapy and how clients perceive them. This qualitative study assessed clients' first person accounts of CEs associated with their own treatment-related changes. Participants were 8 clients in private psychotherapy in Buenos Aires. Treatment, by therapists from diverse theoretical backgrounds, varied from 4 to 24 months. The Patients' Perceptions of Corrective Experiences in Individual Therapy interview protocol was used to assess clients' perceptions of CEs at posttreatment. All interviews were audiorecorded and transcribed and submitted to a 2-stage thematic analysis to assess CEs and the contextual factors that contributed to them. Of the 8 participants, 5 narrated stories about CEs that changed the way they thought about themselves and their behavior. Additionally, clients highlighted disconfirmation of therapist role expectations and surprise regarding therapists' actions and behaviors as mechanisms of these corrective moments.

Variance of the truncated negative binomial distribution

Citations to formulas for the moments of the truncated negative binomial distribution usually reference the paper by Gurmu and Trivedi (1992). However their second moments of the truncated negative binomial are incorrect. We derive the correct second moments for both the left and right truncated negative binomial distribution. The second moments of the truncated distributions are written in a form that shows they will converge to the second moment of the un-truncated distribution when the truncated first moment approaches the un-truncated first moment.

Investigation of gas dispersion characteristics in stirred tank and flotation cell using a corrected CFD-PBM quadrature-based moment method approach

In this study, the population balance model (PBM) is coupled with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to investigate the steady-state bubble size distribution in two types of process equipment namely, a standard Rushton turbine stirred tank reactor and a generic lab-scale flotation cell. The coupling is realized using Fluent 15.07 software, and the numerical model is validated for the stirred tank reactor. The population balance equation (PBE) is solved using the quadrature method of moments (QMOM) technique along with a correction procedure implemented to check and correct invalid moment sets. The breakage and coalescence of bubbles due to turbulence are considered. The breakage rate and daughter size distribution models proposed by Laakkonen et al. (2007) are considered. For modeling coalescence rate, models proposed by Coulaloglou and Tavlarides (1977) are considered. The interaction between the phases is handled by considering the drag model proposed by Lane et al. (2005) while ignoring the other interphase forces. The correction algorithm has been successfully implemented, and improved predictions of gas volume fraction and Sauter mean diameter (SMD, d32) have been observed with a good match between the predictions and experimental measurements. The local SMD predictions are compared against predictions from the past studies and the superiority of the current approach for moderate gassing rates is established. The CFD-PBM approach is then used to study and characterize different flow regimes occurring in a generic mechanical flotation cell at different aeration rates and impeller rotation speeds. Also, power numbers are calculated from torque data and are found to drop considerably with an increase in aeration rate and impeller rotation speed as the flow regime approaches recirculating flow. The predicted SMD for flotation cell indicates that smaller bubbles are concentrated near the high turbulence impeller stream, the lower recirculation region, and close to the tank walls. On the other hand, large bubbles are formed in the upper tank region and are concentrated around the shaft during the flooding, loading, and transition flow regimes. In the future, the corrected QMOM approach will be further extended by implementing kinetic models capable of predicting the flotation rate constant using local bubble size information obtained from CFD-PBM simulations.

S&T-51 EXTRACELLULAR MATRIX CHARACTERISTICS OF TUNICA ALBUGINEA IN MEN WITH AND WITHOUT PEYRONIE'S DISEASE

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Peyronie’s disease (PD) is characterized by the formation of fibrous plaques in the tunica albuginea (TA) of the penis, causing pain and penile curvature during erection, with great impact on quality of life of patients. There is a lack of highly effective medical treatments for PD, mainly because it’s pathophysiology is not completely understood. The aim of this study was to compare possible markers related to alterations and remodeling of extracellular matrix which can be involved on the development of the disease in men with and without PD METHODS: Samples of TA of 10 patients with PD were obtained at the moment of surgical correction of penile curvature. Samples of TA of 10 corpses with normal penis at the physical exam were obtained (control group). Tissues were processed and stained with Hematoxilin, submitted to immunohistochemistry (IHQ) with the following primary antibodies: heparanase (HPSE), heparanase2 (HPSE2), metalloproteinases 2 and 9 (MMP2 and MMP9) and TGF-s. IHQ reaction used peroxidase kit LSAB -peroxidase (DakoCytomation , Copenhagen, Dinamarca). Genic expression of heparanase-1 (HPSE), heparanase2 (HPSE2), metalloprotease 9 (MMP9), syndecan 1 (SYN1), interleukin 6 (IL-6), hyaluronic acid sintetase 1 e 2 (HAS1 e HAS2), hyaluronidases 1 e 2 (HYL1 e HYL2), was done by quantitative RTPCR (qRT-PCR). Statystical analyses were done using software Graph PRISM 5 . Project was reviewed and approved by the Research Ethical Committee of Faculdade de Medicina do ABC, (# 242/2010). RESULTS: Histopathological evaluation showed higher number of cells, reduction of apoptosis events, alteration of the distribution of collagen fibers and diminished number of vessels on TA of patients with PD compared to the controls TA. qRT-PCR analysis showed increased concentration of TGF-s and interleucine1 reduction on HSPE-1 expression and decreased concentration of dermatan sulfate and chondroitin sulfate in patients with PD (p<0.05). However, there were no alterations on HPSE2, MMP2 e MMP9 expressions. Those findings suggest a higher remodeling of extracellular matrix in patients with PD. CONCLUSIONS: In comparison with the controls the TA of patients with PD showed lesser number of vessels and apoptosis events; increased concentration of TGF-s and interleukin-1, reduction of heparanase-1 expression and decreased concentration of dermatan sulfate and chondroitin sulfate.

S&T-52 EARLY CHANGES IN SKELETAL MUSCLE AS A STRONG PROGNOSTIC BIOMARKER IN PATIENTS WITH METASTATIC RENAL CELL CARCINOMA

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Peyronie’s disease (PD) is characterized by the formation of fibrous plaques in the tunica albuginea (TA) of the penis, causing pain and penile curvature during erection, with great impact on quality of life of patients. There is a lack of highly effective medical treatments for PD, mainly because it’s pathophysiology is not completely understood. The aim of this study was to compare possible markers related to alterations and remodeling of extracellular matrix which can be involved on the development of the disease in men with and without PD METHODS: Samples of TA of 10 patients with PD were obtained at the moment of surgical correction of penile curvature. Samples of TA of 10 corpses with normal penis at the physical exam were obtained (control group). Tissues were processed and stained with Hematoxilin, submitted to immunohistochemistry (IHQ) with the following primary antibodies: heparanase (HPSE), heparanase2 (HPSE2), metalloproteinases 2 and 9 (MMP2 and MMP9) and TGF-s. IHQ reaction used peroxidase kit LSAB -peroxidase (DakoCytomation , Copenhagen, Dinamarca). Genic expression of heparanase-1 (HPSE), heparanase2 (HPSE2), metalloprotease 9 (MMP9), syndecan 1 (SYN1), interleukin 6 (IL-6), hyaluronic acid sintetase 1 e 2 (HAS1 e HAS2), hyaluronidases 1 e 2 (HYL1 e HYL2), was done by quantitative RTPCR (qRT-PCR). Statystical analyses were done using software Graph PRISM 5 . Project was reviewed and approved by the Research Ethical Committee of Faculdade de Medicina do ABC, (# 242/2010). RESULTS: Histopathological evaluation showed higher number of cells, reduction of apoptosis events, alteration of the distribution of collagen fibers and diminished number of vessels on TA of patients with PD compared to the controls TA. qRT-PCR analysis showed increased concentration of TGF-s and interleucine1 reduction on HSPE-1 expression and decreased concentration of dermatan sulfate and chondroitin sulfate in patients with PD (p<0.05). However, there were no alterations on HPSE2, MMP2 e MMP9 expressions. Those findings suggest a higher remodeling of extracellular matrix in patients with PD. CONCLUSIONS: In comparison with the controls the TA of patients with PD showed lesser number of vessels and apoptosis events; increased concentration of TGF-s and interleukin-1, reduction of heparanase-1 expression and decreased concentration of dermatan sulfate and chondroitin sulfate.

Enhancement of vehicle dynamics via an innovative magnetorheological fluid limited slip differential

A new automotive controllable differential is proposed and tested, firstly in software environment and, successively, following a hardware in the loop procedure based on the employment of the physical prototype. The device is based on the employment of magnetorheological fluid, whose magnetization allows to generate the locking torque and, consequently, the corrective yaw moment. A vehicle model has been derived and adopted for the design of a yaw moment controller based on the sliding mode approach. Some feedbacks requested by the controller have been estimated by means of an extended Kalman filter. The obtained results show the effectiveness of the device in terms of vehicle dynamics improvement. Indeed, the results reached by the vehicle in presence of the new differential confirm the improved performances for both steady and unsteady state manoeuvres. Moreover, the hardware in the loop testing allows to overcome the limits due to the modelling of the differential, fully validating the physical prototype.

Investigation into the dynamic collapse behaviour of a bulk carrier under extreme wave loads

The aim of this paper is to quantitatively evaluate the extent of collapse of a bulk carrier when the ship is subjected to extreme wave loads. A hydro-elastoplasticity theory, which was proposed by the present authors and takes into account the interaction between the large elasto-plastic deformation and the wave load evaluation, is applied to the ship’s structure with the assumption that a plastic hinge is formed in the midship region when the hull girder collapses in extreme wave conditions. The dynamic response of the hinge can be expressed by the relationship between the vertical bending moment and the curvature, which are obtained using nonlinear Finite Element Analysis (FEA). A comparative correct moment–curvature curve and a reasonable load evaluation are necessary for prediction of the severity of the collapse for the actual ship. A bulk carrier hull model with one frame space is constructed and analysed using an arc-length control method (Riks method). The geometric nonlinearity resulting from large deformations and the material nonlinearity are taken into account. The presence of an initial imperfection is considered using the consistent imperfection mode method in the FEA. A prediction of the extent of collapse for a bulk carrier subjected to an extreme wave load is carried out using the hydro-elastoplasticity approach. This analysis clarifies the extent to which the hull girder may collapse in extreme wave conditions at an exceedance probability of 1/1000 in several short-term sea states.

Correction of static axial alignment in children with knee varus or valgus deformities through guided growth: Does it also correct dynamic frontal plane moments during walking?

Malaligned knees are predisposed to the development and progression of unicompartmental degenerations because of the excessive load placed on one side of the knee. Therefore, guided growth in skeletally immature patients is recommended. Indication for correction of varus/valgus deformities are based on static weight bearing radiographs. However, the dynamic knee abduction moment during walking showed only a weak correlation to malalignment determined by static radiographs. Therefore, the aim of the study was to measure the effects of guided growth on the normalization of frontal plane knee joint moments during walking.15 legs of 8 patients (11–15 years) with idiopathic axial varus or valgus malalignment were analyzed. 16 typically developed peers served as controls. Instrumented gait analysis and clinical assessment were performed the day before implantation and explantation of eight-plates. Correlation between static mechanical tibiofemoral axis angle (MAA) and dynamic frontal plane knee joint moments and their change by guided growth were performed.The changes in dynamic knee moment in the frontal plane following guided growth showed high and significant correlation to the changes in static MAA (R=0.97, p<0.001). Contrary to the correlation of the changes, there was no correlation between static and dynamic measures in both sessions. In consequence two patients that had a natural knee moment before treatment showed a more pathological one after treatment.In conclusion, the changes in the dynamic load situation during walking can be predicted from the changes in static alignment. If pre-surgical gait analysis reveals a natural load situation, despite a static varus or valgus deformity, the intervention must be critically discussed.

Modeling and Simulation for Free Fall Bomb Dynamics in Windy Environment

The main goal of aircraft bombing is its success in the destruction of the required target depending on the correct aiming and the correct moment of release. Different conditions, such as air speed, altitude, angle of release and the presence of wind, have a significant effect on the choice of the release moment to ensure target destruction. In this paper, a Six-degree of freedom (6DOF) mathematical model for the free fall bomb is presented describing the motion of the bomb in the three-dimensional space in the presence of stochastic winds. The aerodynamic coefficients for the free fall bomb are calculated through Missile Datcom computer program, however, these coefficients can be calculated either experimentally using the wind tunnel or a flight test; or mathematically through the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). The stochastic wind affecting the trajectory of the bomb is defined by a velocity spectral represented by the Continuous Dryden Spectral. The contribution in this paper is the modeling and evaluation of the free fall bomb flight simulation in the presence of stochastic wind affecting the bomb flight trajectory.

Obstetric medical book and women's childbirth in Qing dynasty: the case of the treatise on easy childbirth

Ye Feng composed what was to become one of the most famous and widely-circulating medical works of the late imperial period, the Treatise on Easy Childbirth. Ye Feng proposed the idea of natural childbirth, When the correct moment for birth had arrived, the child would leave its mother's body as easily as "a ripe melon drops from the stem". He argued attempts to facilitate birth were therefore not only unnecessary, and female midwives artificial intervention was not required. However, this view is to overlook the pangs of childbirth, and women bear responsibility for the failure of delivery. So his views reflect the gender order in male-dominated. Also he constructed the negative image of the midwife and belittle her childbirth techniques. As a result, midwife are excluded from the childbirth field, male doctors grasp guardianship rights of the female body. Ye Feng declared that the key to safe and successful delivery could be summed up in just a few words: "sleep, endure the pain, delay approaching the birthing tub". This view must be consistent with the Confucian norms, women to export to equip the 'patience' and 'self-control'. These norms were exposed desire men want to monitor and control the female body, effect on consolidation of patriarchal family order. In sum, the discourse of "a ripe melon drops from the stem"and "sleep, endure the pain, delay approaching the birthing tub" comprised an important intellectual resource that male doctors drew on to legitimate themselves as superior overseers of women's gestational bodies.

Reliability of day-ahead solar irradiance forecasts on Reunion Island depending on synoptic wind and humidity conditions

Day ahead solar irradiance forecasting is essential to manage solar energy systems and assist decision-making. Available global and mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models show limitations for regions with high complex terrain in solar irradiance forecasts, due to the usual coarse resolution of the models and the difficulties in reproducing the correct physics (in terms of cloud evolution) at the correct moment. This is the case of Reunion Island (21°S, 55.5°E) a 60-km wide tropical island located in the Southwest of the Indian Ocean basin.This work explores the use of NWP thermodynamic variables at synoptic scale as predictors of solar irradiance as they are commonly considered robust and well predicted by these models. Our analyses show that the diurnal cycle of solar irradiance on Reunion Island is sensitive to synoptic wind and relative humidity at 700hPa (RH700). Moreover, this sensitivity varies depending on the site location on the Island with respect to synoptic wind direction. Hence, stations that are most exposed to synoptic wind, show greatest sensitivity. From these results, we have developed an empirical-statistical downscaling (ESD) method for day-ahead local-scale solar irradiance forecast and forecast reliability for the Reunion Island case, which searches for past analogous conditions of synoptic wind and RH700. Our study uses 12years of ECMWF reanalysis data together with ground-based measurements at 21 stations on the island. Forecasting results for 4 of these stations plus an aggregate virtual station (derived as the mean of 11 coastal stations) show that the ESD method outperforms a climatology-based method in all cases. The contribution of this method for solar irradiance forecasting and its reliability are discussed.