Fiber length is one of the vital factors in determining the properties of long fiber reinforced thermoplastics (LFRT). However, many factors may generate fiber breakage in the injection molding process of LFRT, such as friction, melt shear, injection rate, etc. Especially for thin-walled products, owing to the relatively narrow mold cavity and frozen layer near the mold wall, it’s usually difficult for the fibers to move freely with the melt, leading to fiber breakage under the shear stress of the flow field eventually. In such a situation, the existing buckling breakage model based on the assumption fibers immersed in the flow field being in an unconstrained state is no longer applicable. In this paper, a new model for calculating the critical length of constrained fiber in thin-walled injection molded products is developed. A typical long glass fiber reinforced polypropylene thin-walled product was employed to verify the reliability of the model. The high-precision fiber length analyzer was used to calculate the fiber length distribution at different distances from the injection port. At the same time, the length distribution at the corresponding position was predicted via the model. The average prediction accuracy in the three sampling sections is 87.8%, 91.4% and 83.6%, respectively. The results show that the proposed model can effectively predict the fiber length distribution of injection molded thin-walled products. This conclusion provides important support for further accurate calculation of the mechanical properties of products.