Moisture Variations Research Articles

Determining friction properties of ABS plastic in contact with loamy soil

The paper explores the feasibility of substituting steel working bodies with polymer ones in soil-cultivating units. (Research purpose) The research aims to investigate how the friction parameters of acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS plastic) are affected by variations in absolute soil moisture and speed of the unit during the interaction of its working body with loamy soil. (Materials and methods) A laboratory unit was developed to examine the friction characteristics of the polymer in contact with loamy soil. The study measures the friction and adhesion properties by altering the absolute moisture of loamy soil. (Results and discussion) Graphs were constructed to illustrate the relationship between of the friction parameters of acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS plastic) on absolute soil moisture. It was determined that at absolute soil moistures of 18, 20 and 26 percent, the friction coefficients of acrylonitrile butadiene styrene are 0.45, 0.5 and 0.6, respectively. The adhesion values were recorded at 100, 145 and 700 pascals for absolute soil moistures of 18, 20 and 28 percent, respectively. A decrease in both friction and adhesion was observed when the soil moisture reached between 26% and 28%. (Conclusions) The friction properties of acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS plastic) are lower than those of steel, yet significantly higher than those of fluoroplastic. Further research in this area is expected to significantly increase the effi ciency of selecting materials for the manufacturing of working parts in soil-cultivating units, while also reducing energy costs.

Improved soil moisture estimation and detection of irrigation signal by incorporating SMAP soil moisture into the Indian Land Data Assimilation System (ILDAS)

Land surface models have facilitated the estimation of soil moisture over a range of spatiotemporal scales. However, limitations in model parameterization and under-representation of anthropogenic processes restrict their ability to estimate local-scale soil moisture variability, especially over irrigated areas. Assimilation of satellite-based soil moisture retrievals into land surface models can be a viable approach to overcome these constraints, specially over highly irrigated countries such as India, where such applications are rare. Additionally, large-scale validation of modeled soil moisture has been limited over India till now due to lack of a representative station network. By assimilating Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP)-based estimates into the state-of-the-art Indian Land Data Assimilation System (ILDAS) and combining with a new soil moisture station network of more than 200 stations, this study demonstrates improved soil moisture estimations and capture of irrigation signals over the region. The Noah-MP land surface model is forced by multiple local and global meteorological datasets and Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is used for assimilation of soil moisture. Comparison of open-loop and data assimilated soil moisture against station soil moisture data shows relative spatial mean improvement of 0.0178 in correlation and 0.0029 m3/m3 in RMSE. Further statistical comparison with in-situ data has also shown better results over most of the stations, as evident from improved correlations and reduced unbiased RMSE after assimilation. Finally, the climatology of soil moisture over the different irrigation fractions reveals that data assimilated outputs over irrigated grid cells tend to have higher soil moisture during dry winter season, demonstrating the ability to capture irrigation signals. These findings quantify the value of data assimilation in improving soil moisture estimates and the ability to capture unmodeled processes such as irrigation, which lays the science groundwork for upcoming space missions such as NASA ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR).

Regional wood chip quality parameters decomposition and price linkage with impact on Polish energy sustainability: Time frequency analysis between 2013 and 2019

The study aims to analyze and decompose the qualitative parameters of wood chips in Poland. The European Green Deal brings the new framework to support sustainability and elimination of emissions. The Wavelet coherence and Wavelet Discrete Decomposition are used for determination of relations among significant qualitative parameters. Thus, the possible uses are discussed. For the obvious relationship between moisture and calorific value there is evidence of strong correlation. The behaviour of these interrelations are different at frequencies in the long and short time. The wood chip price is inter-transmitter from moisture parameter to calorific value in a positive (in-phase) relationship. At both low and high frequencies there is evidence that the variables of moisture and calorific value are highly correlated. The transient effect of linkage is presented at values between 0.1 and 0.3 in coherence map. The empirical findings provide implication for local producers and policymakers.

Exploring the actual spatial resolution of 1 km satellite soil moisture products

High-resolution soil moisture data is crucial in the development of hydrological applications as it provides detailed insights into the spatiotemporal variability of soil moisture. The emergence of advanced remote sensing technologies, alongside the widespread adoption of machine learning, has facilitated the creation of continental and global soil moisture products both at fine spatial (1 km) and temporal (daily) scales. Some of these products rely on several data sources as input (satellite, in situ, modelling), and therefore an evaluation of their actual spatial and temporal resolution is required. Nevertheless, the absence of appropriate ground monitoring networks poses a significant challenge for this assessment.In this study, five high-resolution (1 km) soil moisture products (S1-RT1, S1-COP, SMAP-Planet, SMAP-NSIDC, and ESACCI-Zheng) were analysed and evaluated throughout the Italian territory, together with a coarse resolution (12.5 km) dataset for comparison (ASCAT-HSAF). The main objective is to investigate their actual spatial and temporal resolution, and accuracy. Firstly, a cross-comparison of the products in space and time is carried out, including the use of triple collocation analysis. Secondly, an application-based assessment is implemented, considering irrigation, fire, drought, and precipitation case studies.The results clearly indicate the limitations and the potential of each product. Sentinel-1 based products (S1-COP and S1-RT1) are found able to reproduce high-resolution spatial patterns by detecting localised events for irrigation, fire, and precipitation. Their lower temporal resolution leads to accuracies lower than that of the SMAP-Planet product, and comparable with SMAP-NSIDC and ESACCI-Zheng products. However, SMAP-Planet is found to have an actual spatial resolution coarser than 1 km. The study highlights the need for further research to improve the high-resolution soil moisture products, and particularly to determine accurately the spatial resolution represented in soil moisture products. At the same time, the analysed products are found able to address high-resolution applications for the first time, opening promising activities for their operational use in hydrology and water resources management.

Spatial Variation of Top Soil Moisture in Semi-Arid Agro-Pastoral Ecotone and Its Response to Spatial Driving Factors: A Case Study in the Sanggan River Basin, China

Spatial Variation of Top Soil Moisture in Semi-Arid Agro-Pastoral Ecotone and Its Response to Spatial Driving Factors: A Case Study in the Sanggan River Basin, China

Siberian Pine and Larch Response to Warming-Drying Climate in the Southern Boundary of Their Range

Trees’ growth and areal responses to changing climate are primarily expected within the edges of the species range. Here, we compared the responses of Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica Du Tour), a moisture-sensitive species, and drought-resistant larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.) at the southern part of their ranges in the Siberian Mountains (the Tannu-Ola Ridge). We study the species’ growth and proportion in the forests from forest-steppe to treeline ecotone along the elevation gradient. These studies are based on radial growth index (GI) analysis and GI dependence on the climate variables. We used satellite time series to detect the land cover changes (areas of larch and Siberian pine, as well as shrubs and birch). We compared trees’ GI before and after warming “restart” in the late 1990s. Generally, GI dependence on the air temperature was negative at elevations below c. 1600 m a.s.l., whereas GI dependence on the moisture variables (precipitation, vapor pressure deficit, and soil moisture) was positive for both species. Above 1600 m, increasing air temperatures stimulated species growth, whereas the influence of moisture variables was negative (for larch) or neutral (for Siberian pine). After the warming restart, the GI of both conifers increased in moisture-sufficient high elevations and treeline ecotone, whereas within low elevations (<1300 m), the GI was stagnant or suppressed. Both species’, especially Siberian pine, negative growth dependence on air temperature and positive dependence on the moisture variables strongly increased since the warming restart. We found a risen growth dependence of both species on the soil-stored water during the previous year (September–October), which smoothed moisture stress at the beginning of the growing season. Yet both species’ growth also suffered as a result of early spring warms. We found that larch is migrating in both uphill and downhill directions, while Siberian pine is migrating uphill only. Forests loss occurred at low elevations (<1300 m), whereas forest and shrub gain occurred at high (>2000 m) ones. The upper boundary of the forests and shrubs is migrating uphill at rates of about 0.8 and 0.3 m/y, respectively. We observed a decrease in Siberian pine proportion in the forests, whereas areas of larch and birch strongly increased (by 150% and 100%, respectively), which indicates the retreat of Siberian pine from its southern habitat. We suggested afforestation of the areas of Siberian pine mortality by the drought-tolerant larch species.

Propagation and Maintenance of the Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation over the Western North Pacific in Boreal Winter

Abstract This study investigates the propagation and maintenance mechanisms of the dominant intraseasonal oscillation over the western North Pacific in boreal winter, the quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO). The wintertime QBWO over the western North Pacific is characterized by the westward-northwestward movement from the tropical western Pacific to the western North Pacific and resembles the n = 1 equatorial Rossby wave. Its westward migration is primarily driven by the seasonal-mean zonal winds that advect vorticity anomalies in the lower–middle troposphere and moisture anomalies in the lower troposphere. Its northward movement is preconditioned by the vorticity dynamics of the beta effect, the low-level vertical moisture variation, and the local air–sea interaction. The latter involves the atmospheric forcing on the underlying ocean by changing the surface heat flux fluctuations and the sea surface temperature feedback on the low-level atmospheric instability. Its maintenance is primarily through atmospheric external energy sources from diabatic heating, which first generates eddy available potential energy and then converts it to eddy kinetic energy. Significance Statement Atmospheric quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) is an important climate phenomenon over the western North Pacific in boreal winter. It can trigger significant influences both in the tropical and extratropical regions. Given the importance, it is necessary to investigate the propagation and maintenance mechanisms of the QBWO over the western North Pacific in boreal winter. The QBWO usually propagates northwestward from the tropical western Pacific to the western North Pacific. The westward propagation is driven by the seasonal mean zonal winds that advect vorticity anomalies in the lower–middle troposphere and moisture anomalies in the lower troposphere. The northward propagation is caused jointly by several processes, including the atmospheric forcing on the ocean via the surface heat flux fluctuations, the feedback of ocean on the low-level atmospheric instability, the vorticity dynamics of the beta effect, and the vertical variation of low-level moisture. In addition, converting from eddy available potential energy to eddy kinetic energy is essential in maintaining the QBWO’s development. The disclosure of these crucial processes deepens the dynamics of the QBWO over the western North Pacific in boreal winter.

How Maize Farmers in the US Southwest Grew and Prospered Under El Niño but Suffered Under La Niña

Variability in temperature and soil moisture influenced the spread and productive potential of maize. A new low-frequency reconstruction of US Southwest summer temperatures from 3000 BC to present shows generally warmer temperatures until the first century AD. From then until AD 1000, temperatures were generally cooler, though a warming trend continuing to present begins ca. AD 400, interrupted by cooling ca. AD 900 and 1400. Proposing a “ENSO Index” for the US Southwest, we argue that El Niño-like conditions dominated much of the second millennium BC and the first millennium AD, depressing summer temperatures relative to northern hemisphere norms but providing favorable winter moisture for maize. La Niña-like conditions (much less favorable to maize) dominated most of the period from 800 BC – AD 100 and AD 1200 to ca. 1900. We connect these low-frequency trends with tendencies in how and where people lived, emphasizing developments in the ancestral Pueblo area.

Does pollination interact with the abiotic environment to affect plant reproduction?

Abiotic and biotic components of the environment both limit plant reproduction, but how they interact with one another in combination is less understood. Understanding these interactions is especially relevant because abiotic and biotic environmental components respond differently to various global change drivers. Here we aim to understand whether the effects of pollination (biotic component) on plant reproduction depend on soil moisture (abiotic component), two factors known to affect plant reproduction and that are changing with global change. We conducted pollen supplementation experiments for two plant species, Delphinium nuttallianum and Hydrophyllum fendleri, in subalpine meadows in the Western USA across four years that varied in soil moisture. In a separate one-year field experiment, we factorially crossed water addition with pollen supplementation. We measured proportion fruit set, seeds per fruit, and seeds per plant, in addition to stomatal conductance, to determine whether plant physiology responded to watering. In the four-year study, only H. fendleri reproduction was pollen limited, and this occurred independently of soil moisture. Experimental water addition significantly increased soil moisture and stomatal conductance for both species. The effect of pollen addition on reproduction depended on the watering treatment only for H. fendleri fruit production. Reproduction in D. nuttallianum was not significantly affected by pollen addition or water addition, but it did respond to interannual variation in soil moisture. Although we find some evidence for the effect of a biotic interaction depending on abiotic conditions, it was only for one aspect of reproduction in one species, and it was in an unexpected direction. Our work highlights interactions between the abiotic and biotic components of the environment as an area of further research for improving our understanding of how plant reproduction responds to global change.

Can precipitation intermittency predict flooding?

A mystery has emerged as to why patterns of increasing extreme rainfall have not been accompanied by similar levels of flooding, garnering growing attention given concerns over future flood risks. Antecedent moisture conditions have been proposed as the missing explanatory factor. Yet, reasons for moisture variability prior to flooding remain largely unstudied. Here, we evaluate the potential utility of precipitation intermittency, defined as the dry spell length prior to a flood, to explain the variability of flooding over 108 watersheds from 1950 to 2022. Flood magnitude is shown to be sensitive to intermittency, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions (PET/P > 0.84) and for basins with low soil field capacity (<0.31 m3/m3). Following extended dry spells >20 days, floods are only possible from the most intense storms, whereas a wider range of storms can produce flooding for shorter intermittency. The flood probability decreases by approximately 0.5 % for each additional day of dry spell, with overall flood probabilities being up to 30 % lower following extended dry periods. These results underscore the potential utility of precipitation intermittency for diagnosing current and future flood risks.

Performance of industrial fly ash based stabilized mine haul roads under seasonal moisture changes

Mine haul roads play an important role in the mining industry. They are often designed as unsealed roads, which are frequently damaged due to seasonal moisture variation, especially when the subgrade soil is expansive clay. In this study, the performance of mine haul roads built on expansive clay soil is investigated for seasonal moisture variation using experimental and numerical investigations. Shrinkage, swelling, soil water characteristics curve (SWCC) tests, and direct shear testing were first performed to assess the hydraulic and shear performance of the control and municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) fly ash-treated soils. The swelling reduced from 1.95 to 1.02, while the shrinkage reduced from 3.4% to 1.84% after the addition of 20% MSWI fly ash. SWCC results showed that the MSWI fly ash addition reduces the void spaces and increases residual saturation. The consolidation settlement reduced by 50% after adding 20% MSWI fly ash. The cohesion of both soil and MSWI fly ash-treated samples exhibited a bell-shaped trend with moisture increase, in contrast to friction angles which decreased with increasing saturation levels. 3D numerical models were used to predict the performance of control soil and MSWI stabilized mining haul roads using the experimental test data. The control pavement experienced increased settlement and rutting as saturation levels increased. The behaviour of the stabilized pavement differed, with the model having a 20% degree of saturation showing the least deformation due to increased stiffness from high suction. Overall, this study highlights the benefits of MSWI fly ash-based soil stabilization in improving the performance of mine haul roads under seasonal moisture changes. The findings emphasize the importance of considering the degree of saturation and stabilization techniques in pavement design to mitigate settlement and enhance overall performance.

Temperature and soil moisture manipulation yields evidence of drought-induced pollen limitation in bee-pollinated squash.

Climate change alters environmental conditions in ways that directly and indirectly affect plants. Flowering plants, for example, modify reproductive allocation in response to heat and drought stress, and such changes can in turn affect pollinator visitation and, ultimately, plant reproduction. Although the individual effects of warming and drought on plant reproductive allocation are well known, these factors may interact to influence reproduction. Here, we conducted a fully crossed temperature by irrigation manipulation in squash (Cucurbita pepo) to test how temperature and soil moisture variation affect pollinator-mediated reproduction. To tease apart the direct and indirect effects of temperature and soil moisture, we compared hand-pollinated plants to bee-pollinated plants and restricted bee foraging (i.e., pollen transfer) to one experimental group per day. Temperature and soil-moisture limitation acted independently of one another: warming decreased flower size and increased pollen production, whereas the effects of soil-moisture limitation were uniformly inhibitory. While treatments did not change squash bee (Xenoglossa spp.) behavior, floral visitation by the honey bee (Apis mellifera) increased with temperature in male flowers and decreased with soil moisture in female flowers. Pollen deposition by bees was independent of plant soil moisture, yet reducing soil moisture increased pollen limitation. This result stemmed at least in part from the effects of soil-moisture limitation on pollen viability; seed set declined with increasing deposition of fluorescent pigment (a proxy for pollen) from plants experiencing decreased soil moisture. These findings suggest that the transfer of lower-quality pollen from plants experiencing soil-moisture limitation led to drought-induced pollen limitation. Similar effects may occur in a wide variety of flowering plant species as climate warming and drought increasingly impact animal-pollinated systems.

Interannual Variability of Water and Heat Fluxes in a Woodland Savanna (Cerrado) in Southeastern Brazil: Effects of Severe Drought and Soil Moisture

The Brazilian Cerrado biome is known for its high biodiversity, and the role of groundwater recharge and climate regulation. Anthropogenic influence has harmed the biome, emphasizing the need for science to understand its response to climate and reconcile economic exploration with preservation. Our work aimed to evaluate the seasonal and interannual variability of the surface energy balance in a woodland savanna (Cerrado) ecosystem in southeastern Brazil over a period of 19 years, from 2001 to 2019. Using field micrometeorological measurements, we examined the variation in soil moisture and studied its impact on the temporal pattern of energy fluxes to distinguish the effects during rainy years compared to a severe drought spell. The soil moisture measures used two independent instruments, cosmic ray neutron sensor CRNS, and FDR at different depths. The measures were taken at the Pé de Gigante (PEG) site, in a region of well-defined seasonality with the dry season in winter and a hot/humid season in summer. We gap-filled the energy flux measurements with a calibrated biophysical model (SiB2). The long-term averages for air temperature and precipitation were 22.5 °C and 1309 mm/year, respectively. The net radiation (Rn) was 142 W/m2, the evapotranspiration (ET) and sensible heat flux (H) were 3.4 mm/d and 52 W/m2, respectively. Soil moisture was marked by a pronounced negative anomaly in the 2014 year, which caused an increase in the Bowen ratio and a decrease in Evaporative fraction, that lasted until the following year 2015 during the dry season, despite the severe meteorological drought of 2013/2014 already ending, which was corroborated by the two independent measurements. The results showed the remarkable influence of precipitation and soil moisture on the interannual variability of the energy balance in this Cerrado ecosystem, aiding in understanding how it responds to strong climate disturbances.

Effects of vegetation restoration on the temporal variability of soil moisture in the humid karst region of southwest China

Study regiona typical humid karst region of southwestern China. Study focusTemporally stable soil moisture variability (SMV) helps clarify stress on vegetation growth. In the humid karst region of southwest China, large-scale vegetation restoration has affected the soil moisture. However, most studies here have focused on changes in the soil moisture content, and changes in the SMV have not been considered. New hydrological insights for the regionIn this study, changes to the SMV after vegetation restoration were analyzed using two indicators: the soil moisture coefficient of variation(SMCV) and soil moisture memory(SMM). The results showed that the SMCV decreased by an average of 22.3 % and the SMM increased by an average of 17.2 % in the Karst region of southwest China. the SMV had significantly decreased after vegetation restoration, and the overall decrease was larger on 15-day, monthly, and yearly scales and smaller on the weekly scale.When the effects of different vegetation types were considered, SMV greatly decreased in forestland and grassland on the 15-day and monthly scales, in shrubland on the annual scale, and in sparse woodland on the 15-day, monthly, and annual scales. Four geomorphic regions in particular showed large reductions in the SMV: the karst basin, peak cluster depression, peak forest plain, and non-karst region. In addition, changes in SMV after vegetation restoration have a significant positive influence on geochemical and climatic factors and a non-significant negative influence on geological structure factors. Among them, the significant influence factors of CaO content and MgO content are greater than SiO2 content by 0.71 and 0.63. precipitation and temperature are greater than vapor pressure difference by 0.51 and 0.4. Overall, vegetation restoration was found to make the SMV in the humid karst region more stable.

Characteristics, Sources, and Mechanisms of Soil Respiration under Simulated Rainfall in a Native Karst Forest in Southwestern China

Rainfall significantly affects soil respiration rates by altering microbial activity and organic matter decomposition. In karst regions, it also impacts carbonate dissolution and precipitation, further influencing soil CO2 flux. Investigating the mechanism of rainfall’s impact on soil respiration is essential for accurately evaluating and predicting changes in terrestrial ecosystems. However, our understanding of the interaction between rainfall and soil respiration in the extensive karst ecosystems of southwestern China remains limited. This study conducted field-based simulated rainfall experiments to examine variations in soil respiration rates and elucidate the associated control mechanisms through stable carbon isotope composition analysis. Simulated rainfall significantly increased the CO2 release via soil respiration. We observed significant differences in the δ13C value of soil-respired CO2 before and after simulated rainfall. Following the rain, the δ13C of soil-respired CO2 was enriched compared to that before the rain. Through isotope data analysis, we found that the increased soil CO2 emissions were primarily driven by heterotrophic respiration, likely stimulated via changes in soil moisture, affecting microbial growth conditions. Furthermore, the variation in soil moisture affected carbonate dissolution and precipitation, potentially increasing the soil CO2 release after rainfall. In conclusion, these findings expand our understanding of rainfall’s effects on soil respiration in the native karst forests of southwestern China, contributing to the prediction of carbon cycling processes in such ecosystems. The data from this study have significant implications for addressing the release of greenhouse gases in efforts to combat climate change.

Temporal and Spatial Soil Moisture–Precipitation Coupling Relationships Over the Tibetan Plateau

AbstractSoil moisture can significantly influence weather and climate via land‒atmosphere interactions over the Tibetan Plateau. However, the temporal and spatial preferences of precipitation for soil moisture anomalies and the underlying mechanisms over the plateau have not been determined. Using multiple satellite data sets (including Global Precipitation Measurement precipitation data and Soil Moisture Active Passive and Advanced SCATterometer soil moisture data) and ERA5 reanalysis data, the temporal and spatial soil moisture–precipitation coupling (SMPC) relationships in seven summers during 2015–2021 over the plateau are quantified based on a percentile‐based method. The satellite observations show prevalent positive temporal SMPC across the plateau, indicating that wetter‐than‐normal soil conditions tend to lead to more afternoon precipitation. While ERA5 generally aligns with satellite findings, it underestimates areas with positive temporal SMPC. Both the satellite and ERA5 data show that spatial SMPC relationships are usually statistically insignificant, but a few regions show significant positive relationships, that is, precipitation is more likely to occur over soils wetter than the surrounding soils. Moreover, the satellite observations suggest an inter‐event positive correlation between the temporal and spatial SMPC relationships. ERA5 agrees with the satellite‐based results over the western plateau but shows discrepancies over the eastern plateau. The temporal and spatial variations in soil moisture modulate the partitioning of surface heat fluxes, planetary boundary layer height, and lifting condensation level, promoting moist convection and afternoon precipitation. The findings from this study shed new light on SMPC and have important implications for precipitation forecasting over the plateau.

Experimental investigation of influence of amide polymer on loess for subgrade

The effects of moisture and drying shrinkage can lead to uneven settlement, cracking, and other diseases in loess subgrade. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of amide polymer (AP) on the permeability, mechanical properties and crack resistance of loess by orthogonal experiments. The basic properties of AP and the permeability, mechanical properties, and dry–wet variation properties of polymer-modified loess were tested, and a scale model verification and simulation analysis were conducted. In this paper, water migration in subgrade is regulated by improving the water sensitivity of loess. By reducing the variation range of subgrade water content, the stress accumulation in subgrade caused by water is weakened. The results show that the curing time and mechanical properties of AP are directly affected by the oxidant and reducing agent, and the mechanical properties of AP are compatible with the characteristics of loess. AP filled the grain gap and reduced the permeability of loess by 34.05–280.83%. The ductility of polymer-modified loess is significantly increased, and the strain of peak strength is increased by 17.21–126.36%. AP can regulate moisture change, reduce the surface tension between particles, and reduce stress concentration. The strength loss rate was reduced by 19.98–51.21% by enhancing the cracking resistance and weakening the strength loss caused by dry and wet cycling. The increase of upper layer moisture content in the scale model of polymer-modified loess subgrade is reduced by 31.38–36.11%.

Assessment of Long-term spatiotemporal soil moisture variation in the lower Mahanadi River basin: a hydrological modeling based approach

Assessment of Long-term spatiotemporal soil moisture variation in the lower Mahanadi River basin: a hydrological modeling based approach

Convergence of ensemble forecast distributions in weak and strong forcing convective weather regimes

AbstractThe constraint of computational power and the huge number of degrees of freedom of the atmosphere means a sampling uncertainty exists in probabilistic ensemble forecasts. In our previous study, the uncertainty could be quantified, creating a convergence measure which converges proportional to in the limit of large ensemble size . This power law can then be extrapolated to determine how sampling uncertainty would decrease with larger ensemble sizes and hence find the necessary ensemble size. It is unknown, however, how the sampling uncertainty depends on different weather regimes. This study extends the previous idealised ensemble developed, by including weak and strong forcing convective weather regimes, to look at how sampling uncertainty convergence differs in each. Two ‐member ensembles were run, with weak and strong forcing respectively. Comparisons with a kilometre‐scale weather prediction model ensured realistic weak and strong forcing regimes by comparing the rain, convective available potential energy (CAPE), convective adjustment timescale, and distribution shapes throughout the diurnal cycle. Differences in distribution shape between the regimes led to differences in the convergence measure. Large differences in spread between weak and strong forcing runs throughout the hr period led to large differences in sampling uncertainty of the mean and standard deviation, which could be quantified according to well‐known equations. The timing of these differences was case‐dependent. For extreme statistics such as the quantile and for cases where there was precipitation, the moisture variables for the weak forcing case had the largest sampling uncertainty and required the most members for convergence proportional to . This was due to the tails of the weak forcing moisture variables containing the least amount of density. Different ensemble sizes will hence be required depending on whether one is in the weak or strong forcing convective weather regime.

Potential application of curcumin nanoemulsions to preserve properties of refrigerated cheese

The current study focused on employing curcumin nanoemulsions (CRNEs) to maintain their quality and prolong shelf life. The three tested CRNE ratios (1.0, 1.5, and 2.00 mg/ml) passed the stability test at 40 °C, indicating that all samples were stable for 4 weeks. The pH values ranged from 5.74 to 5.75, the droplet size from 63.05 to 64.55 d nm, and the polydispersity index PDI from 0.457 to 0.494. The spherical shape of (CRNEs) formulations is demonstrated by a TEM micrograph. The zeta potentials of CRNEs ranged between −3.82 and −2.72 mV. The physicochemical parameters of Kareish cheese (KCh) and KCh-CRNEs revealed no significant protein, fat, moisture, and pH variations. Kareish cheese has a poor antioxidant activity of 19.23%, compared to 42.31% in KCh-CRNE3 (2 mg/g). Except for color, the sensory parameters results revealed no significant difference between kareish cheese and KCh-CRNEs. CRNE3 had greater efficacy as an antibacterial agent (MIC values 150 and 250) than natural Curcumin (MIC values 800 and 1000) against Staphylococcus aureus and Bacillus cereus, respectively. In vivo study of KCh-CRNEs against Bacillus cereus, the activity was reduced by (55.5 × 104 cfu/g) in KCh-CRNE3, after 12 days of storage at 4 °C. The antioxidant values were (38.02%) in KCh-CRNE3 at the end of storage with no significant change of protein content or pH for all KCh-CRNEs treatments. The findings suggest that curcumin nanoemulsions can enhance antimicrobial protection in Kareish cheese preservation, extending shelf life, and promoting healthier, more sustainable food products, benefiting both the food industry and public health.