Moisture Modes Research Articles

The Stirring Tropics: The Ubiquity of Moisture Modes and Moisture–Vortex Instability

Abstract Observations of column water vapor in the tropics show significant variations in space and time, indicating that it is strongly influenced by the passage of weather systems. It is hypothesized that many of the influencing systems are moisture modes, systems whose thermodynamics are governed by moisture. On the basis of four objective criteria, results suggest that all oceanic convectively coupled tropical depression (TD)-like waves and equatorial Rossby waves are moisture modes. These modes occur where the horizontal column moisture gradient is steep and not where the column water vapor content is high. Despite geographical basic-state differences, the moisture modes are driven by the same mechanisms across all basins. The moist static energy (MSE) anomalies propagate westward by horizontal moisture advection by the trade winds. Their growth is determined by the advection of background moisture by the anomalous meridional winds and anomalous radiative heating. Horizontal maps of column moisture and 850-hPa streamfunction show that convection is partially collocated with the low-level circulation in nearly all the waves. Both this structure and the process of growth indicate that the moisture modes grow from moisture–vortex instability. Last, space–time spectral analysis reveals that column moisture and low-level meridional winds are coherent and exhibit a phasing that is consistent with a poleward latent energy transport. Collectively, these results indicate that moisture modes are ubiquitous across the tropics. That they occur in regions of steep horizontal moisture gradients and grow from moisture–vortex instability suggests that these gradients are inherently unstable and are subject to continuous stirring. Significance Statement Over the tropics, column water vapor has been found to be highly correlated with precipitation, especially in slowly evolving systems. These observations and theory support the hypothesis that moisture modes exist, a type of precipitating weather system that does not exist in dry theory. In this study, we found that all oceanic tropical depression (TD)-like waves and equatorial Rossby waves are moisture modes. These systems exist in regions where moisture varies greatly in space, and they grow by transporting air from the humid areas of the tropics toward their low pressure center. These results indicate that the climatological-mean distribution of moisture in the tropics is unstable and is subject to stirring by moisture modes.

The Stirring Tropics: Theory of Moisture Mode–Hadley Cell Interactions

Abstract Interactions between large-scale waves and the Hadley cell are examined using a linear two-layer model on an f plane. A linear meridional moisture gradient determines the strength of the idealized Hadley cell. The trade winds are in thermal wind balance with a weak temperature gradient (WTG). The mean meridional moisture gradient is unstable to synoptic-scale (horizontal scale of ∼1000 km) moisture modes that are advected westward by the trade winds, reminiscent of oceanic tropical depression–like waves. Meridional moisture advection causes the moisture modes to grow from “moisture-vortex instability” (MVI), resulting in a poleward eddy moisture flux that flattens the zonal-mean meridional moisture gradient, thereby weakening the Hadley cell. The amplification of waves at the expense of the zonal-mean meridional moisture gradient implies a downscale latent energy cascade. The eddy moisture flux is opposed by a regeneration of the meridional moisture gradient by the Hadley cell. These Hadley cell–moisture mode interactions are reminiscent of quasigeostrophic interactions, except that wave activity is due to column moisture variance rather than potential vorticity variance. The interactions can result in predator–prey cycles in moisture mode activity and Hadley cell strength that are akin to ITCZ breakdown. It is proposed that moisture modes are the tropical analog to midlatitude baroclinic waves. MVI is analogous to baroclinic instability, stirring latent energy in the same way that dry baroclinic eddies stir sensible heat. These results indicate that moisture modes stabilize the Hadley cell and may be as important as the latter in global energy transport. Significance Statement The tropics are characterized by steady circulations such as the Hadley cell as well as a menagerie of tropical weather systems. Despite progress in our understanding of both, little is known about how the mean circulations and the weather systems interact with one another. Here we show that tropical waves can grow by extracting moisture from the Hadley cell, thereby weakening it. They also transport moisture to higher latitudes. Our results challenge the notion that the Hadley cell is the sole transporter of energy out of the tropics and instead favor a view where tropical waves are also essential for the global energy balance. They dry the humid regions and moisten the drier regions via stirring.

Free vibration of porous FG magneto-electro-elastic microbeams in the hygrothermal environment based on differential transformation method

Free vibration of the porous functionally graded magneto-electro-elastic (FGMEE) microbeams in hygrothermal environment is investigated. Four kinds of distributions of porosities including uniform porosity, “O,”“X,” and “V” type porosities are assumed in this paper. For the functionally graded microbeam, the physical neutral surface is considered. The modified couple stress theory is adopted to capture the size effect. The equations of motion for the porous FGMEE microbeam are derived and solved by differential transformation method. In the numerical examples, the effect of electric and magnetic loadings, material length scale parameter, the temperature rise, the moisture concentration, material gradient index, and porosity volume fraction on the natural frequency are analyzed and discussed in detail. The results indicate that different porous distribution modes have different effects on natural frequency. Moisture concentration/temperature rise can reduce the natural frequency regardless of what the temperature and moisture modes is. These results will be useful for the design of the porous FGMEE structures.

The Role of Water Vapor and Temperature in the Thermodynamics of Tropical Northeast Pacific and African Easterly Waves

Abstract The thermodynamic processes associated with convection in tropical African and northeastern Pacific easterly waves (AEWs and PEWs, respectively) are examined on the basis of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and a plume buoyancy framework. Linear regression analysis reveals the relationship between temperature, moisture, buoyancy, and precipitation in EWs. Plume buoyancy is found to be highly correlated with rainfall in both AEWs and PEWs, and a near 1:1 relationship is found between a buoyancy-based diagnostic of rainfall and rainfall rates from ERA5. Close inspection of the contribution of moisture and temperature to plume buoyancy reveals that temperature and moisture contribute roughly equally to the buoyancy in AEWs, while moisture dominates the distribution of buoyancy in PEWs. A scale analysis is performed in order to understand the relative amplitudes of temperature and moisture in easterly waves. It is found that the smaller contribution of temperature to the thermodynamics of PEWs relative to AEWs is related to their slower propagation speed, which allows PEWs to more robustly adjust to weak temperature gradient (WTG) balance. The consistency of the buoyancy analysis and the scale analysis indicates that PEWs are moisture modes: waves in which water vapor plays a dominant role in their thermodynamics. AEWs, on the other hand, are mixed waves in which temperature and moisture play similar roles in their thermodynamics.

Is the Madden‐Julian Oscillation a Moisture Mode?

AbstractThe governing thermodynamics of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) is examined using sounding and reanalysis data. On the basis of four objective criteria, results suggest that the MJO behaves like a moisture mode–a system whose thermodynamics is governed by moisture–only over the Indian Ocean. Over this basin, the MJO shows a slow convective adjustment timescale, its zonal scale is smaller, and it exhibits slow propagation, allowing moisture modes to exist. Elsewhere, the faster‐propagating wavenumber 1–2 components are more prominent preventing weak temperature gradient (WTG) balance to be established. As a result, temperature and moisture play similar roles in the MJO's thermodynamics outside the Indian Ocean.

Moist Thermodynamics of Convectively Coupled Waves over the Western Hemisphere

Abstract Convectively coupled waves (CCWs) over the Western Hemisphere are classified based on their governing thermodynamics. It is found that only the tropical depressions (TDs; TD waves) satisfy the criteria necessary to be considered a moisture mode, as in the Rossby-like wave found in an earlier study. In this wave, water vapor fluctuations play a much greater role in the thermodynamics than temperature fluctuations. Only in the eastward-propagating inertio-gravity (EIG) wave does temperature govern the thermodynamics. Temperature and moisture play comparable roles in all the other waves, including the Madden–Julian oscillation over the Western Hemisphere (MJO-W). The moist static energy (MSE) budget of CCWs is investigated by analyzing ERA5 data and data from the 2014/15 observations and modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon 2014/15) field campaign. Results reveal that vertical advection of MSE acts as a primary driver of the propagation of column MSE in westward inertio-gravity (WIG) wave, Kelvin wave, and MJO-W, while horizontal advection plays a central role in the mixed Rossby gravity (MRG) and TD wave. Results also suggest that cloud radiative heating and the horizontal MSE advection govern the maintenance of most of the CCWs. Major disagreements are found between ERA5 and GoAmazon. In GoAmazon, convection is more tightly coupled to variations in column MSE, and vertical MSE advection plays a more prominent role in the MSE tendency. These results along with substantial budget residuals found in ERA5 data suggest that CCWs over the tropical Western Hemisphere are not represented adequately in the reanalysis. Significance Statement In comparison to other regions of the globe, the weather systems that affect precipitation in the tropical Western Hemisphere have received little attention. In this study, we investigate the structure, propagation, and thermodynamics of convectively coupled waves that impact precipitation in this region. We found that slowly evolving tropical systems are “moisture modes,” i.e., moving regions of high humidity and precipitation that are maintained by interactions between clouds and radiation. The faster waves are systems that exhibit relatively larger fluctuations in temperature. Vertical motions are more important for the movement of rainfall in these waves. Last, we found that reanalysis and observations disagree over the importance of different processes in the waves that occurred over the Amazon region, hinting at potential deficiencies on how the reanalysis represents clouds in this region.

The Basic Equations under Weak Temperature Gradient Balance: Formulation, Scaling, and Types of Convectively Coupled Motions

Abstract The weak temperature gradient (WTG) approximation is extended to the basic equations on a rotating plane. The circulation is decomposed into a diabatic component that satisfies WTG balance exactly and a deviation from this balance. Scale analysis of the decomposed basic equations reveals a spectrum of motions, including unbalanced inertio-gravity waves and several systems that are in approximate WTG balance. The balanced systems include equatorial moisture modes with features reminiscent of the MJO, off-equatorial moisture modes that resemble tropical depression disturbances, “mixed systems” in which temperature and moisture play comparable roles in their thermodynamics, and moist quasigeostrophic motions. In the balanced systems the deviation from WTG balance is quasi nondivergent, in nonlinear balance, and evolves in accordance to the vorticity equation. The evolution of the strictly balanced WTG circulation is in turn described by the divergence equation. WTG balance restricts the flow to evolve in the horizontal plane by making the isobars impermeable to vorticity and divergence, even in the presence of diabatically driven vertical motions. The vorticity and divergence equations form a closed system of equations when the irrotational circulation is in WTG balance and the nondivergent circulation is in nonlinear balance. The resulting “WTG equations” may elucidate how interactions between diabatic processes and the horizontal circulation shape slowly evolving tropical motions. Significance Statement Many gaps in our understanding of tropical weather systems still exist and there are still many opportunities to improve their forecasting. We seek to further our understanding of the tropics by extending a framework known as the “weak temperature gradient approximation” to all of the equations for atmospheric flow. Doing this reveals a variety of motions whose scales are similar to observed tropical weather systems. We also show that two equations describe the evolution of slow systems: one that describes tropical thunderstorms and one for the rotating horizontal winds. The two equations may help us understand the dynamics of slowly evolving tropical systems.

Moisture Modes of Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillations—High Order and Anti‐Symmetric Solutions

AbstractThe Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation are fundamental climate modes in the tropical atmosphere on the intraseasonal time scales. A recent study developed a linear moisture mode theory for unified treatment of these intraseasonal oscillations under different meridional moisture gradients. Using scaled Hermite polynomials as the basis for the meridional structure, it is shown that the system has infinite number of normal modes under the same parameter values, as n → ∞. The v = 0 and n = 1 analyzed in the previous study are two special cases. These moisture modes are non‐orthogonal. The idealized MJO solutions derived using the parameters in the boreal winter conditions bear similar meridional structure for planetary scale waves in the Earth‐like atmosphere, unlike the higher order solutions (which are often considered unrealistic) in the classical tropical waves theory. The solutions include both symmetric and anti‐symmetric modes. The symmetric modes are analogous to the Kelvin‐Rossby wave paradigm of the MJO. The anti‐symmetric modes features cross‐equatorial flow near the equator and subtropical gyres. Both growth rates and frequencies of the scaled higher order n modes display small increments compared to lower order modes. In the asymptotic limit n → ∞, a growth rate higher than other modes with finite n is achieved.

A Filtered Model for the Tropical Intraseasonal Moisture Mode

AbstractThe authors propose a new analytic approximation to aid understanding of the “moisture modes” that arise in idealized models of tropical intraseasonal oscillations. The approximation makes use of the separation between the time scale of the large scale flow and that of convective adjustment, but does not neglect the moisture tendency. The approximation filters out equatorial Kelvin waves, so that the only remaining mode is the intraseasonal moisture mode. Some physical insights are more transparent under the approximation: (a) vertical advection of moisture or temperature lead to a diffusion‐type operator that damps short waves, and instability is strongest at planetary scale. (b) A positive effective gross moist stability appears in a wave operator, while a negative effective gross moist stability leads to instabilities whose growth rates increase with zonal wavenumber. (c) Zonal moisture advection and surface flux feedbacks are crucial for both planetary instability and eastward propagation.

Study of hydration of kaolinite and montmorillonite mixture by IR spectroscopy

KGa-1b kaolinite and STx-1b montmorillonite, as well as their mechanical mixture in 1:1 mass ratio, have been experimentally investigated by total reflection IR spectroscopy (IR-ATR) at different moisture modes. The aim of this research was to investigate the spectral features during the formation of water films on the surface of individual minerals, and in mixtures. The analysis of mineral composition of the wetted samples has been carried out by decomposing the experimental spectra into the linear combination of basic spectra of H2O and the minerals used. The obtained dependences of the decomposition coefficients on moisture allow studying the peculiarities of the formation of a water layer on mineral particles, studying the dynamics of moisture redistribution between mineral particles in mixtures, and evaluating the plastic characteristics of clays.

Quasi-Equilibrium and Weak Temperature Gradient Balances in an Equatorial Beta-Plane Model

AbstractConvective quasi-equilibrium (QE) and weak temperature gradient (WTG) balances are frequently employed to study the tropical atmosphere. This study uses linearized equatorial beta-plane solutions to examine the relevant regimes for these balances. Wave solutions are characterized by moisture–temperature ratio (q–T ratio) and dominant thermodynamic balances. An empirically constrained precipitation closure assigns different sensitivities of convection to temperature (εt) and moisture (εq). Longwave equatorial Kelvin and Rossby waves tend toward the QE balance with q–T ratios of εt:εq that can be ~1–3. Departures from strict QE, essential to both precipitation and wave dynamics, grow with wavenumber. The propagating QE modes have reduced phase speeds because of the effective gross moist stability meff, with a further reduction when εt > 0. Moisture modes obeying the WTG balance and with large q–T ratios (>10) emerge in the shortwave regime; these modes exist with both Kelvin and Rossby wave meridional structures. In the υ = 0 case, long propagating gravity waves are absent and only emerge beyond a cutoff wavenumber. Two bifurcations in the wave solutions are identified and used to locate the spatial scales for QE–WTG transition and gravity wave emergence. These scales are governed by the competition between the convection and gravity wave adjustment times and are modulated by meff. Near-zero values of meff shift the QE–WTG transition wavenumber toward zero. Continuous transitions replace the bifurcations when meff < 0 or moisture advection/WISHE mechanisms are included, but the wavenumber-dependent QE and WTG balances remain qualitatively unaltered. Rapidly decaying convective/gravity wave modes adjust to the slowly evolving QE/WTG state in the longwave/shortwave regimes, respectively.

Vertical Velocity Profiles in Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves and MJO: New Diagnoses of Vertical Velocity Profiles in the Wavenumber–Frequency Domain

Abstract A new diagnostic framework is developed and applied to ERA-Interim to quantitatively assess vertical velocity (omega) profiles in the wavenumber–frequency domain. Two quantities are defined with the first two EOF–PC pairs of omega profiles in the tropical ocean: a top-heaviness ratio and a tilt ratio. The top-heaviness and tilt ratios are defined, respectively, as the cospectrum and quadrature spectrum of PC1 and PC2 divided by the power spectrum of PC1. They represent how top-heavy an omega profile is at the convective maximum, and how much tilt omega profiles contain in the spatiotemporal evolution of a wave. The top-heaviness ratio reveals that omega profiles become more top-heavy as the time scale (spatial scale) becomes longer (larger). The MJO has the most top-heavy profile while the eastward inertio-gravity (EIG) and westward inertio-gravity (WIG) waves have the most bottom-heavy profiles. The tilt ratio reveals that the Kelvin, WIG, EIG, and mixed Rossby–gravity (MRG) waves, categorized as convectively coupled gravity waves, have significant tilt in the omega profiles, while the equatorial Rossby (ER) wave and MJO, categorized as slow-moving moisture modes, have less tilt. The gross moist stability (GMS), cloud–radiation feedback, and effective GMS were also computed for each wave. The MJO with the most top-heavy omega profile exhibits high GMS, but has negative effective GMS due to strong cloud–radiation feedbacks. Similarly, the ER wave also exhibits negative effective GMS with a top-heavy omega profile. These results may indicate that top-heavy omega profiles build up more moist static energy via strong cloud–radiation feedbacks, and as a result, are more preferable for the moisture mode instability.

Scale Analysis of Moist Thermodynamics in a Simple Model and the Relationship between Moisture Modes and Gravity Waves

AbstractObservations and theory of convectively coupled equatorial waves suggest that they can be categorized into two distinct groups. Moisture modes are waves whose thermodynamics are governed by moisture fluctuations. The thermodynamics of the gravity wave group, on the other hand, are rooted in buoyancy (temperature) fluctuations. On the basis of scale analysis, it is found that a simple nondimensional parameter—akin to the Rossby number—can explain the processes that lead to the existence of these two groups. This parameter, defined as Nmode, indicates that moisture modes arise when anomalous convection lasts sufficiently long so that dry gravity waves eliminate the temperature anomalies in the convective region, satisfying weak temperature gradient (WTG) balance. This process causes moisture anomalies to dominate the distribution of moist enthalpy (or moist static energy), and hence the evolution of the wave. Conversely, convectively coupled gravity waves arise when anomalous convection eliminates the moisture anomalies more rapidly than dry gravity waves can adjust the troposphere toward WTG balance, causing temperature to govern the moist enthalpy distribution and evolution. Spectral analysis of reanalysis data indicates that slowly propagating waves (cp ~ 3 m s−1) are likely to be moisture modes while fast waves (cp ~ 30 m s−1) exhibit gravity wave behavior, with “mixed moisture–gravity” waves existing in between. While these findings are obtained from a highly idealized framework, it is hypothesized that they can be extended to understand simulations of convectively coupled waves in GCMs and the thermodynamics of more complex phenomena.

Filtering the Stochastic Skeleton Model for the Madden–Julian Oscillation

Abstract The filtering and prediction of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and relevant tropical waves is a contemporary issue with significant implications for extended range forecasting. This paper examines the process of filtering the stochastic skeleton model for the MJO with noisy partial observations. A nonlinear filter, which captures the inherent nonlinearity of the system, is developed and judicious model error is included. Despite its nonlinearity, the special structure of this filter allows closed analytical formulas for updating the posterior states and is thus computationally efficient. A novel strategy for adding nonlinear observational noise to the envelope of convective activity is designed to guarantee its nonnegative property. Systematic calibration based on a cheap single-column version of the stochastic skeleton model provides a practical guideline for choosing the parameters in the full spatially extended system. With these column-tuned parameters, the full filter has a high overall filtering skill for Rossby waves but fails to recover the small-scale fast-oscillating Kelvin and moisture modes. An effectively balanced reduced filter involving a simple fast-wave averaging strategy is then developed, which greatly improves the skill of filtering the moisture modes and other fast-oscillating modes and enhances the total computational efficiency. Both the full and the reduced filters succeed in filtering the MJO and other large-scale features with both homogeneous and warm pool cooling/moistening backgrounds. The large bias in filtering the solutions by running the perfect model with noisy forcing is due to the noise accumulation, which indicates the importance of including judicious model error in designing filters.

Gross Moist Stability and MJO Simulation Skill in Three Full-Physics GCMs

Abstract Previous studies have demonstrated a link between gross moist stability (GMS) and intraseasonal variability in theoretical and reduced-complexity models. In such simplified models, MJO-like moisture modes—convectively coupled tropical disturbances akin to the MJO whose formation and dynamics are linked to moisture perturbations—develop only when GMS is either negative or “effectively” negative when considering additional sources of moist entropy. These simplified models typically use a prescribed, time-independent GMS value. Limited work has been done to assess GMS and its connection to intraseasonal variability in full-physics general circulation models (GCMs). The time-mean and intraseasonal behavior of normalized GMS (NGMS) are examined in three pairs of GCMs to elucidate the possible importance of NGMS for the MJO. In each GCM pair, one member produces weak intraseasonal variability, while the other produces robust MJOs because of a change in the treatment of deep convection. A strong linear correlation between time-mean NGMS and MJO simulation skill is observed, such that GCMs with less positive NGMS produce improved MJO eastward propagation. The reduction in time-mean NGMS is primarily due to a sharp drop to negative values in the NGMS component related to vertical advection, while the horizontal advection component has a less clear relationship with MJO simulations. Intraseasonal fluctuations of anomalous NGMS modulate the magnitude of background NGMS but generally do not change the sign of background NGMS. NGMS declines ahead of peak MJO rainfall and increases during and after heaviest precipitation. Total NGMS fluctuates during MJO passage but remains positive, suggesting that other sources of moist entropy are required to generate an effectively negative NGMS.

Moisture Modes and the Eastward Propagation of the MJO

Abstract The authors discuss modifications to a simple linear model of intraseasonal moisture modes. Wind–evaporation feedbacks were shown in an earlier study to induce westward propagation in an eastward mean low-level flow in this model. Here additional processes, which provide effective sources of moist static energy to the disturbances and which also depend on the low-level wind, are considered. Several processes can act as positive sources in perturbation easterlies: zonal advection (if the mean zonal moisture gradient is eastward), modulation of synoptic eddy drying by the MJO-scale wind perturbations, and frictional convergence. If the sum of these is stronger than the wind–evaporation feedback—as observations suggest may be the case, though with considerable uncertainty—the model produces unstable modes that propagate weakly eastward relative to the mean flow. With a small amount of horizontal diffusion or other scale-selective damping, the growth rate is greatest at the largest horizontal scales and decreases monotonically with wavenumber.

Effects of Varying the Shape of the Convective Heating Profile on Convectively Coupled Gravity Waves and Moisture Modes

Abstract The analytical model of convectively coupled gravity waves and moisture modes of Raymond and Fuchs is extended to the case of top-heavy and bottom-heavy convective heating profiles. Top-heavy heating profiles favor gravity waves, while bottom-heavy profiles support moisture modes. The latter behavior results from the sensitivity of moisture modes to the gross moist stability, which is more negative with bottom-heavy heating. A numerical implementation of the analytical model allows calculations in the two-dimensional nonrotating case as well as on a three-dimensional equatorial beta plane. In the two-dimensional case the analytical and numerical models are mostly in agreement, although minor discrepancies occur. In three dimensions the gravity modes become equatorial Kelvin waves whereas the moisture modes are more complex and require further investigation.

Research progress in plant hydraulic conductance under different environmental factors

Plant hydraulic conductance(K) refers to the rate of water flow(kg·s-) per unit pressure drop(MPa),which drives flow through the plant or plant organ systems.It is an important eco-physiology index for measuring root water absorption and transmission capacity.Both internal and external factors could significantly change plant hydraulic conductance.This article summarized main research progress on the effects of environmental factors on plant hydraulic conductance.Environmental factors such as root zone soil moisture,nutrient,salinity,temperature and irrigation modes were analyzed.The paper threw further light on plant hydraulic conductance under different environmental factors.This had an important function in strengthening SPAC water transport theories and defining plant adaptive mechanisms to environmental conditions and high water use potential.

Mechanisms of Poleward Propagating, Intraseasonal Convective Anomalies in Cloud System–Resolving Models

Abstract An envelope of convection that propagates both poleward and eastward accounts for the largest fraction of intraseasonal variance of the tropical atmosphere during boreal summer. Here the mechanisms of poleward propagating convective anomalies are examined in a nonhydrostatic model with zonally symmetric boundary conditions, integrated on a beta plane at resolutions high enough to explicitly represent moist convection. When the domain has a narrow zonal dimension of 100 km or less, the model produces a quasisteady intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Meridionally propagating transients are produced for some prescribed sea surface temperature distributions, but these transients are shallow, vanish at finer resolutions, and have a structure that bears little resemblance to that of observed poleward propagating anomalies. This is in sharp contrast to previous studies that obtained robust poleward propagating anomalies in axisymmetric models using parameterized moist convection, and it suggests that the anomalies seen in those models may be caused by deficient representations of dynamics or subgrid-scale physics. Robust poleward propagating anomalies are obtained when the high-resolution, nonhydrostatic model is integrated in a wider domain with a zonal dimension near 1000 km. Diagnostics suggest that poleward propagation in this wide domain results from the convectively coupled beta drift of low-level vorticity anomalies. Deep near-equatorial ascent produces low-level cyclones that migrate poleward through the process of beta drift; Ekman pumping in these drifting cyclones then humidifies the free troposphere ahead of the initial deep ascent, shifting the convection poleward. The moist static energy budget and model sensitivity tests suggest that these anomalies can be viewed as moisture modes destabilized through a moisture–radiation feedback. Wind–evaporation feedback also seems to contribute to the instability of these anomalies, but because it enhances surface fluxes on the equatorward side of the anomalies, it also reduces their propagation speed. These results suggest a novel mechanism for the poleward propagation of intraseasonal convective anomalies and illustrate the need to evaluate theoretical models that use parameterized convection against cloud system–resolving models.

Moisture Modes and the Madden–Julian Oscillation

AbstractMoisture mode instability is thought to occur in the tropical oceanic atmosphere when precipitation is a strongly increasing function of saturation fraction (precipitable water divided by saturated precipitable water) and when convection acts to increase the saturation fraction. A highly simplified model of the interaction between convection and large-scale flows in the tropics suggests that there are two types of convectively coupled disturbances: the moisture mode instability described above and another unstable mode dependent on fluctuations in the convective inhibition. The latter is associated with rapidly moving disturbances such as the equatorially coupled Kelvin wave.A toy aquaplanet beta-plane model with realistic sea surface temperatures produces a robust Madden–Julian oscillation–like disturbance that resembles the observed phenomenon in many ways. Convection in this model exhibits a strong dependence of precipitation on saturation fraction and does indeed act to increase this parameter in situations of weak environmental ventilation of disturbances, thus satisfying the criteria for moisture mode instability. In contrast, NCEP’s closely related Global Forecast System (GFS) and Climate Forecast System (CFS) models do not produce a realistic MJO. Investigation of moist entropy transport in NCEP’s final analysis (FNL), the data assimilation system feeding the GFS, indicates that convection tends to decrease the saturation fraction in these models, precluding moisture mode instability in most circumstances. Thus, evidence from a variety of sources suggests that the MJO is driven at least in part by moisture mode instability.