Moisture Flux Research Articles

Assessing the informativeness of a coupled surface–subsurface watershed model for understanding debris flow: a hydrological perspective

ABSTRACT Characterization of debris flow is critical to both risk assessment and hazard mitigation. Recent technologies enable onsite environmental monitoring sensors for geological disaster monitoring. However, the spatiotemporal understanding of debris flow in remote mountainous areas is still limited due to difficulties in observation networks and its complex driving conditions. Here we apply a coupled surface–subsurface hydrological model to examine the characteristics of the water movements near debris flow sites in southwest China. Our approach captured the temporal dynamics of infiltration, redistribution of soil moisture, groundwater storage, and lateral groundwater fluxes. The lateral groundwater flux and groundwater storage were informative indicators in identifying debris flow location. Such informativeness was only effective when hourly dynamics were analysed. Our findings provide new insight into quantifying debris flow susceptibility. This study suggests that the coupled surface–subsurface watershed modelling approach can be informative for preliminary monitoring, planning and management of debris flow.

Ecosystem level carbon and moisture fluxes from a high biomass fibre producing jute crop (Corchorus olitorius L): An eddy covariance-based analysis

ContextJute (Corchorus olitorius L) is the second-largest natural fibre producing crop in the world and plays a key role in the rural economy of South Asia particularly India and Bangladesh. It has diverse use due to its long length, lusture, biodegradability, high tensile strength, heat resistance and bendability. Jute is also fast-growing high biomass crop and quantification of the carbon / moisture exchanges is need of the hour towards its sustainability. ObjectiveThe study aims at quantitative estimation of the ecosystem level CO2 and H2O exchanges at diurnal, daily, and seasonal scales from jute crop cultivated in the alluvial soil of the Gangetic delta under a tropical hot and moist sub-humid climate during the years 2021–23. MethodsAn eddy covariance flux tower with suite of meteorological sensors were established at the jute growing farm to assess the high frequency ecosystem level exchanges of CO2, H2O and biometeorological parameters. Concurrent crop bio-physical parameters were also measured. The flux data were processed, quality checked, gap-filled and partitioned to construct seamless time-series of half-hourly fluxes for further analysis towards its dynamics, driving parameters, photosynthetic response and derived eco-physiological parameters. ResultsThe half-hourly CO2 fluxes exhibited significant variations across different growth stages of the jute crop, reaching peak values during the fibre development to maturity stages [mean Net Ecosystem CO2 Exchange (NEE) ranging from −20 to −22 µmol m−2 s−1; mean Gross Primary Production (GPP) ranging from 25 to 30 µmol m−2 s−1; and mean Ecosystem Respiration (Reco) ranging from 8 to 10 µmol m−2 s−1]. Seasonal GPP values was found to be high (902–1038 gC m−2) with moderate NEE value of −150 to −223 gC m−2. Seasonal mean Ecosystem Water Use Efficiency (EWUE) was high (2.5–2.7 gC kg−1 H2O) compared to other C3 crop. The daily Crop Coefficient (Kc) peaked at 1–1.2 during 90–110 Days After Sowing (DAS), indicative of high physiological activities. ConclusionDespite relatively short crop duration but high biomass (peak Leaf Area Index, LAI ∼6 m2m−2), the jute crop proved to be a robust gross CO2 sink. Due to the rapid growth, the jute crop allocates a significant portion of GPP as Reco (78–84 %), resulting in a relatively lower seasonal NEE. The high EWUE coupled with a net positive CO2 exchange positioned jute as a potential climate-resilient crop. This study provides valuable insights into the ecosystem exchanges of the jute crop, which in turn contribute to the global carbon and moisture budget.

A physics-based model of thermodynamically varying fuel moisture content for fire behavior prediction

Fuel moisture content (FMC) is a critical parameter in fire and plume behaviors, showing diurnal and spatial variations influenced by local meteorological conditions, soil characteristics, and fuel properties. In low-intensity fires, small-scale FMC variations intensify, leading to an amplification of their effects on fire physics. In an effort to capture these variations, this paper presents the development of a physics-based model that couples a thermodynamic-based FMC prediction model for dead fuels with the Fire Dynamics Simulator of the National Institute of Standards and Technology. The model accuracy is validated against several existing experimental data, showing improvements over the baseline model which uses the kinetic-based Arrhenius drying approach. A case study of flame propagation in a small fuel bed is also presented, indicating the improved performance of the new model and its novel capabilities in capturing complex processes of fuel drying and moisture flux exchanges between the fuel and ambient atmosphere.

Variability of the Southern Andes rain shadow

The southern Andes mountain range plays a determinant role in separating humid Chilean climate from dry Argentinian climate. However, there is substantial event-to-event variability in rain shadow strength, such that some precipitation events are able to produce significant spillover precipitation over the Argentinian side. This study investigates the mechanisms modulating the rain shadow strength across the Southern Andes. Rain gauge measurements from Chile and Argentina were used to classify events according to their rain shadow strength, as strong rain shadow (SRS) or weak rain shadow (WRS). ERA5 reanalysis was used to analyze synoptic conditions during these events. Differences between events show that the 0 °C isotherm is higher during SRS events. SRS cases exhibit a larger windward deceleration of cross-barrier wind than WRS events, indicating a blocking signature. Strong mountain wave activity increases precipitation upwind of the Andes and suppresses precipitation on the lee for SRS events, while WRS events exhibit weaker wave activity. Zonal moisture flux offshore is larger for SRS events than for WRS. Analysis of the drying ratio suggests that more water vapor is precipitated out or deflected by the mountains and does not reach the leeside in the SRS events compared to WRS events. The following mechanisms controlling the rain shadow strength are suggested: (1) A higher 0 °C causes more liquid precipitation to fall upstream and over the windward slope of the Andes for SRS events, while WRS cases with a lower 0 °C level allow ice particles and snow at the top of the mountain to be advected to the leeside, decreasing the rain shadow, (2) the low-level impinging flow is blocked by the Andes during SRS events, forcing the flow to rise upstream, increasing precipitation upwind and on the windward slope of the Andes, increasing the rain shadow, (3) leeside descent for SRS events suppresses precipitation on the leeside, while weaker wave activity for WRS cases allows for spillover precipitation decreasing the rain shadow, (4) SRS events that are also characterized by strong orographic enhancement could be produced by the landfall of atmospheric rivers to the area, increasing precipitation upstream and decreasing the rain shadow, as a result of the northerly orientation of the flow in contrast with the more zonal orientation of WRS cases.

Influence of the Summer Changes in Large-scale Atmospheric Circulation on the Vertical Fluxes of Heat and Moisture in Russian Landscape Zones

Influence of the Summer Changes in Large-scale Atmospheric Circulation on the Vertical Fluxes of Heat and Moisture in Russian Landscape Zones

The added value of Himawari-8 satellite radiance data assimilation for very heavy rainfall prediction in the Indonesian Maritime Continent (Case study: East Kalimantan)

Abstract This study evaluates the impact of assimilating Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) radiance data on the 8-10 water vapor channel using the three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) technique for the very heavy rainfall events in East Kalimantan on June 2-4, 2019. We utilized the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and WRF Data Assimilation (WRFDA) system to run assimilation and prediction model simulations. To compare the assimilated model with AHI data and without assimilation, we devised two experimental schemes: 3DVAR and NODA. We assessed the enhancement in model prediction by comparing simulation results based on convection evolution, vertically integrated moisture flux convergence (VIMFC) increment, and rain prediction skill metrics, including Threat Score (TS), Equitable Threat Score (ETS), and Fractions Skill Score (FSS). Our findings suggest that the incorporation of AHI data results in a substantial improvement of the WRF model’s prediction of the very heavy rainfall events in East Kalimantan.

Satellite-Based Estimation of the Role of Cloud-Radiative Interaction in Accelerating Tropical Cyclone Development

Abstract Recent modeling studies have suggested a potentially important role of cloud-radiative interactions in accelerating tropical cyclone (TC) development, but there has been only limited investigation of this in observations. Here, we investigate this by performing radiative transfer calculations based on cloud property retrievals from the CloudSat Tropical Cyclone (CSTC) dataset. We examine the radius–height structure of radiative heating anomalies, compute the resulting radiatively driven circulations, and use the moist static energy variance budget to compute radiative feedbacks. We find that inner-core midlevel ice water content and anomalous specific humidity increase with TC intensification rate, resulting in enhanced inner-core deep-layer longwave warming anomalies and shortwave cooling anomalies in rapidly intensifying TCs. This leads to a stronger radiatively driven deep in-up-and-out overturning circulation and inner-core radiative feedback in rapidly intensifying TCs. The longwave-driven circulation provides radially inward momentum fluxes and upward moisture fluxes, which benefit TC development, while the shortwave-driven circulation suppresses TC development. The longwave anomalies, which dominate the inner-core positive radiative feedback, are mainly generated from cloud-radiative interactions, with ice particles dominating the deep-layer circulation and liquid droplets and water vapor contributing to the shallow circulation. Moreover, the variability in ice water content, as opposed to the variability in liquid water content and the effective radii of ice particles and liquid droplets, dominates the uncertainty in TC-radiative interaction. These results provide observational evidence for the importance of cloud-radiative interactions in TC development and suggest that the amount and spatial structure of ice water content are critical for determining the strength of this interaction. Significance Statement The limited investigation of tropical cyclone (TC)-radiative interaction in observations impedes our understanding of TC development. This study aims to quantitatively show the spatial variation in radiation in TCs and their effect on TC development by using a set of satellite-based observations. We relate TC-radiative interaction to TC intensification and emphasize the inner-core features. Moreover, we quantitatively demonstrate the relative contribution from clouds, liquid droplets, ice particles, and water vapor to TC-radiative interaction as well as the source of the variation in radiative properties. These results provide an additional observational foundation for the importance of cloud-radiative interactions in TC development and support a quantitative validation for numerical modeling.

High-Resolution Precipitation Mapping for Morocco: Integrating Orographic and Geographic Influences

Morocco's mountainous regions play a crucial role in shaping its precipitation patterns, influencing everything from water resources to agricultural potential. However, accurately mapping precipitation in such complex terrain is challenging for traditional methods. This study proposes a model that incorporates both topographic and geographic features and prevailing weather patterns to create more accurate maps of average annual precipitation across Morocco. What sets this model apart is its ability to determine the direction of prevailing weather circulation and incorporate geographic and topographic parameters that influence precipitation patterns. Using data from 1965 to 2010, the model estimates an average annual rainfall of 206.4 mm, equivalent to 146.6 billion cubic meters per year, with a terrain aspect deviation to the dominant moisture flux direction set at 280 degrees. This approach is particularly valuable in regions with limited climate data networks, as it leverages existing information to fill in the gaps. By providing more accurate precipitation maps, this model can be a valuable tool for environmental modeling, water resource management, and agricultural planning in Morocco.

Discrepancies of Functional Requirements of Façade Opening System between Real-Life Public and Built Environment Experts Focusing on Thermal Comfort and Ventilation

A survey was conducted to analyze the discrepancies of the functional requirements of the façade system in residential units among 605 of the real-life public and 73 experts. Personal and housing information, resident life patterns, public façade usage behavior, and functional requirements were collected from the respondents. Both the public and experts recognized insulation as the main function of façade opening systems. More than 85% of the public and experts opened windows for ventilation, but ventilation was ranked 3rd amongst the public and 4th amongst experts in the main functions list of façade systems. The public cited the inflow of fine dust as the main reason for dissatisfaction with opening windows. In contrast, the experts cited a decrease in thermal comfort due to the inflow of external moisture as the reason for dissatisfaction with opening windows. The results showed that discrepancies exist between the public and experts’ perceptions of the main function of housing façade systems. Analyzing the common points and differences between the public and experts’ perception can help in developing façade system design and control technology.

Effects of surface moisture flux on the formation and evolution of cold fog over complex terrain with large‐eddy simulation

AbstractThis study examines the effect of surface moisture flux on fog formation, as it is an essential factor of water vapor distribution that supports fog formation. A one‐way nested large‐eddy simulation embedded in the mesoscale community Weather Research and Forecasting model is used to examine the effect of surface moisture flux on a cold fog event over the Heber Valley on January 16, 2015. Results indicate that large‐eddy simulation successfully reproduces the fog over the mountainous valley, with turbulent mixing of the fog aloft in the valley downward. However, the simulated fog is too dense and has higher humidity, a larger mean surface moisture flux, more extensive liquid water content, and longer duration relative to the observations. The sensitivity of fog simulations to surface moisture flux is then examined. Results indicate that reduction of surface moisture flux leads to fog with a shorter duration and a lower height extension than the original simulation, as the decrease in surface moisture flux impairs water vapor transport from the surface. Consequently, the lower humidity combined with the cold air helps the model reproduce a realistic thin fog close to the observations. The outcomes of this study illustrate that a minor change in moisture flux can have a significant impact on the formation and evolution of fog events over complex terrain, even during the winter when moisture flux is typically very weak.

Siberian vegetation growth intensifies monsoon precipitation in southern East Asia in late spring and early summer

Regional hydrological cycle responding to rising temperatures can have significant influences on society and human activities. We suggest a new perspective on East Asia’s enhanced precipitation amount that emphasizes the role of Siberian surface warming. Increased vegetation greenness in late spring and early summer in eastern Siberia, which may be a response to global warming, acts to warm the surface by reducing the surface albedo with an increase in net absorbed shortwave radiation. Subsequently, eastern Siberia warming leads to the strengthening of anti-cyclonic atmospheric circulation over inner East Asia as well as the subtropical western North Pacific high via thermal forcing and the enhanced land-sea thermal contrast, respectively. Consequently, the anticyclonic circulation over inner East Asia transports much drier and cooler air to southern East Asia. This leads to favorable conditions for increased precipitation in combination with an increased tropical moisture flux from the subtropical western North Pacific high. Therefore, continuous Siberian vegetation growth has a potential influence on the future precipitation amount in the subtropics through vegetation–atmosphere coupled processes.

Tropical ocean teleconnections with gross primary productivity of monsoon-Asia

The intricate oceanic climate interactions with terrestrial primary production of Asian ecosystems exert crucial social-economical-environmental repercussions. Yet, a holistic understanding of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with the gross primary productivity (GPP) variations of monsoon-Asia remains constrained. This study provides a statistical framework demonstrating how SST perturbations in the tropics influence GPP fluctuations in monsoon-Asia by modulating hydrothermal conditions of different climate system components. Observation evidence explicitly illustrated the characteristic anomalous SST signatures of positive and negative GPP anomalies in South and Southeast Asia during June–August. The SST anomalies of the central-eastern tropical Pacific showed a robust negative impact on the GPP variability of South-Asia. The GPP alterations in maritime-Southeast-Asia exhibited strong connections with SST anomalies of the western Pacific (positive) and eastern equatorial Pacific (negative). The oceanic signals in the GPP variability of South-Asia and maritime-Southeast-Asia mirrored canonical El Niño and La Niña patterns. The detected SST–GPP link is feasible through large-scale atmospheric circulation variability and the consequent regional modulation of heat and moisture fluxes. The anomalous strengthening (weakening) of Walker cell enhances (reduces) water availability to plants for photosynthesis during the La Niña (El Niño) phase of the ENSO cycle and thus elevates (lowers) GPP in South-Asia and Maritime-southeast-Asia. In contrast, the enhanced GPP anomaly in mainland-Southeast-Asia depicts signs of canonical La Niña and Indian Ocean subtropical dipole (IOSD) teleconnections. The positive impact of IOSD was through the modulation of the Mascarene High and the consequent impact on the monsoon. Meanwhile, decreased GPP bears the imprint of El Niño Modoki and warm tropical Indian Ocean SSTs. The atmospheric teleconnections demonstrated the delayed impact of El Niño Modoki on GPP variability through the Indian Ocean capacitor effect. Our findings could be instrumental in forecasting the probable effects on vegetation growth in monsoon-Asia associated with high-frequency tropical oceanic changes.

Heating test of a silty sand in a short cylinder with a vertical hydronic grouted heating pipe

Ground heat exchangers (GHEs) consist of HDPE pipes embedded in the ground to exchange thermal energy with the surrounding soils. Vertical GHEs are backfilled with grout materials to seal the soil boreholes, which are critical to the heat transfer at the pipe and soil interface. In this study, a short vertical soil cylinder was developed to measure the heat transfer process at the soil and pipe interface. The soil test cylinder consists of a 30 cm tall acrylic cylinder with a vertical 2.5 cm diameter (ID) HDPE pipe at its center. A grout of 85% bentonite and 15% graphite was compacted at 36% moisture content around the HDPE with a 1.4 cm radial thickness. A silty sand was chosen as the testing soil and compacted into the cylinder at 9% moisture and a dry density of 1.26 g/cm3. Moisture, temperature, and heat flux sensors were installed along the radial direction to measure the heat transfer process. The HDPE pipe was connected to a temperature-controlled water bath for a heating source at the specified constant temperature. The heating test of the silty sand with and without grout was compared. The thermal contact resistance at the pipe-grout interface was determined. The results demonstrated the impact of thermal grout on the heat transfer of GHEs, and the findings will help improve its design.

The Role of Atmospheric Stabilities and Moisture Convergence in the Enhanced Dry Season Precipitation over Land from 1979 to 2021

Abstract Between 1979 and 2021, global ocean regions experienced a decrease in dry season precipitation, while the trend over land areas varied considerably. Some regions, such as southeastern China, the Maritime Continent, eastern Europe, and eastern North America, showed a slight increasing trend in dry season precipitation. This study analyzes the potential mechanisms behind this trend by using the fifth major global reanalysis produced by ECMWF (ERA5) data. The analysis shows that the weakening of downward atmospheric motions played a critical role in enhancing dry season precipitation over land. An atmospheric moisture budget analysis revealed that larger convergent moisture fluxes lead to an increase in water vapor content below 400 hPa. This, in turn, induced an unstable tendency in the moist static energy profile, leading to a more unstable atmosphere and weakening downward motions, which drove the trend toward increasing dry season precipitation over land. More water vapor in the low troposphere is because of higher moisture convergence and moisture transport from ocean to land regions. In summary, this study demonstrates the intricate elements involved in altering dry season rainfall trends over land, which also emphasizes the importance of comprehending the spatial distribution of the wet-get-wetter and dry-get-drier paradigm. Significance Statement This study found that global land precipitation during the dry season slightly increased from 1979 to 2021, while precipitation over oceans declined. Moist static energy analysis showed a trend toward less stability in areas with increased dry season precipitation and the opposite trend in regions with declining precipitation. Water vapor content trends and dynamic components were the primary controlling mechanism for precipitation trends. Furthermore, the hotspots with pronounced increases or decreases in dry season precipitation reflect local circulation changes influenced by anthropogenic or natural factors.

Surface heat fluxes at coarse blocky Murtèl rock glacier (Engadine, eastern Swiss Alps)

Abstract. We estimate the surface energy balance (SEB) of the Murtèl rock glacier, a seasonally snow-covered permafrost landform with a ventilated coarse blocky active layer (AL) located in the eastern Swiss Alps. We focus on the parameterisation of the turbulent heat fluxes. Seasonally contrasting atmospheric conditions occur in the Murtèl cirque, with downslope katabatic jets in winter and a strongly unstable atmosphere over the heated blocky surface in summer. We use a novel comprehensive sensor array both above the ground surface and in the coarse blocky AL to track the rapid coupling by convective heat and moisture fluxes between the atmosphere, the snow cover, and the AL for the time period September 2020–September 2022. The in situ sensor array includes a sonic anemometer for eddy-covariance flux above-ground and sub-surface long-wave radiation measurements in a natural cavity between the AL blocks. During the thaw seasons, the measurements suggest an efficient (∼ 90 %) export of the available net radiation by sensible and latent turbulent fluxes, thereby strongly limiting the heat available for melting ground ice. Turbulent export of heat and moisture drawn from the permeable AL contributes to the well-known insulating effect of the coarse blocky AL and partly explains the climate resiliency of rock glaciers. This self-cooling capacity is counteracted by an early snow melt-out date, exposing the low-albedo blocky surface to the intense June–July insolation and causing reduced evaporative cooling due to exacerbated moisture scarcity in the near-surface AL during dry spells. With climate change, earlier snowmelt and increased frequency, duration, and intensity of heat waves and droughts are projected. Regarding the parameterisation of the turbulent fluxes, we estimated the year-round turbulent fluxes using a modified Louis (1979) scheme. The monthly SEB is closed within 20 W m−2 except during the snowmelt months and under katabatic drainage winds in winter. Detected sensible turbulent fluxes from nocturnal ventilation processes, although a potentially important ground cooling mechanism, are within our 20 W m−2 uncertainty because nighttime wind speeds are low. Wintertime katabatic wind speeds needed to be scaled to close the SEB, which hints at the limits of parameterisations based on the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory in complex mountain terrain and katabatic drainage winds. The present work contributes to the process understanding of the SEB and climate sensitivity of coarse blocky landforms.

Changes in Future Rainfall over Southeast Asia Using the CMIP6 Multi-model Ensemble

A multi-model ensemble from the new CMIP6 models was utilized to determine the future changes in precipitation over Southeast Asia (SEA; longitude: 90°E–140°E, latitude: 15°S–30°N). The changes are computed for the three (3) future time slices (2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2081–2100) under four (4) different scenarios based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): 1-2.6, 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5. Our results indicate that future rainfall in the SEA-averaged region could increase by about 4%, 5%, 6%, and 9% towards the end of the century relative to the present-day average (1995–2014) under SSP1-2.6, 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5, respectively. Among all scenarios, SSP3-7.0 widely shows remarkably dry conditions whereas SSP5-8.5 suggests extremely wet conditions on different time scales. A clear dissociation of wet and dry areas is expected in the far-term period (2081–2100). Changes in the annual cycle indicate that monsoon rainfall could experience significant increases. The study also emphasizes the importance of moisture flux convergence (MFC) in determining precipitation patterns across different seasons and regions. The results suggest that MFC plays a crucial role in the projected increase or decrease of rainfall in SEA regions. Spatial correlation of future global mean temperature (GMT) and rainfall have a high positive (negative) correlation in the north (south) latitudes. Changes in rainfall are found to be sensitive to GMT. The responses to future rainfall changes per degree Celsius of warming are at the rate of 8.9%, 6.3%, 3.6%, and 2.7% under SSP1-2.6, 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5, respectively.

Global 1 km land surface parameters for kilometer-scale Earth system modeling

Abstract. Earth system models (ESMs) are progressively advancing towards the kilometer scale (“k-scale”). However, the surface parameters for land surface models (LSMs) within ESMs running at the k-scale are typically derived from coarse-resolution and outdated datasets. This study aims to develop a new set of global land surface parameters with a resolution of 1 km for multiple years from 2001 to 2020, utilizing the latest and most accurate available datasets. Specifically, the datasets consist of parameters related to land use and land cover, vegetation, soil, and topography. Differences between the newly developed 1 km land surface parameters and conventional parameters emphasize their potential for higher accuracy due to the incorporation of the most advanced and latest data sources. To demonstrate the capability of these new parameters, we conducted 1 km resolution simulations using the E3SM Land Model version 2 (ELM2) over the contiguous United States. Our results demonstrate that land surface parameters contribute to significant spatial heterogeneity in ELM2 simulations of soil moisture, latent heat, emitted longwave radiation, and absorbed shortwave radiation. On average, about 31 % to 54 % of spatial information is lost by upscaling the 1 km ELM2 simulations to a 12 km resolution. Using eXplainable Machine Learning (XML) methods, the influential factors driving the spatial variability and spatial information loss of ELM2 simulations were identified, highlighting the substantial impact of the spatial variability and information loss of various land surface parameters, as well as the mean climate conditions. The comparison against four benchmark datasets indicates that ELM generally performs well in simulating soil moisture and surface energy fluxes. The new land surface parameters are tailored to meet the emerging needs of k-scale LSM and ESM modeling with significant implications for advancing our understanding of water, carbon, and energy cycles under global change. The 1 km land surface parameters are publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10815170 (Li et al., 2024).

Atmospheric Rivers in the Eastern and Midwestern United States Associated With Baroclinic Waves

AbstractAtmospheric rivers (ARs) significantly impact the hydrological cycle and associated extremes in western continental regions. Recent studies suggest ARs also influence water resources and extremes in continental interiors. AR detection tools indicate that AR conditions are relatively frequent in areas east of the Rocky Mountains. The origin of these ARs, whether from synoptic‐scale waves or mesoscale processes, is unclear. This study uses meteorological composite maps and transects of AR conditions during the four seasons. The analysis reveals that ARs east of the Rockies are associated with long‐wave, baroclinic Rossby waves. This result demonstrates that eastern North American ARs are dynamically similar to their western coastal counterparts, though mechanisms for vertical moisture flux differ between the two. These findings provide a foundation for understanding future climate change and ARs in this region and offer new methods for evaluating climate model simulations.

Climate warming contributes to the record-shattering 2022 Pakistan rainfall

A sequence of torrential rainstorms pounded Pakistan in the summer of 2022, shattering records by massive margins (7 sigma). The severe socioeconomic damages underscore the urgency of identifying its dynamic drivers and relationship with human-induced climate change. Here, we find that the downpours were primarily initiated by the synoptic low-pressure systems, whose intensity and longevity far exceeded their counterparts in history as fueled by a historically-high cross-equatorial moisture transport over the Arabian Sea. The moisture transport has been trending upward since the 1960s and, in 2022, along with the anomalous easterly moisture influx caused by the combination of La Niña and negative Indian Ocean Dipole events, created a corridor of heavy rainfall extending from central India toward southern Pakistan. While it is not yet established whether the observed trend of the cross-equatorial moisture transport has exceeded natural variability, model-based analysis confirms that it is consistent with the fingerprint of anthropogenic climate warming and will raise the likelihood of such rare events substantially in the coming decades.

Moisture sources of precipitation over the Pearl River Basin in South China

AbstractMoisture sources and transport processes play a critical part in hydrological cycle and determine regional precipitation. This paper utilizes the Water Accounting Model‐2layers (WAM‐2layers) and the ERA5 reanalysis data to track the sources of precipitation over the Pearl River Basin (PRB). The contribution of external moisture and the role of local recycling are investigated. The results show that during the period from 1980 to 2020, oceanic sources including the western North Pacific and Indian Oceans serve as the primary moisture sources of precipitation over the PRB. The contributions to total seasonal precipitation are respectively 62.57% in MAM, 54.79% in JJA, 43.70% in SON and 60.88% in DJF. By contrast, the contribution of local recycling is generally below 5.50%. In the dry years of 1994, 1997 and 2001, the contribution of terrestrial sources is about 19.22%; in the wet years of 1989, 2009 and 2011, the contribution is about 16.31%. The summer precipitation anomalies are mainly attributable to moisture anomalies from the Equatorial Indian Ocean in the wet years and from Southeast Asia in the dry years. Furthermore, vertically integrated moisture flux anomalies over the boundaries of the PRB are generally the result of anomalous wind rather than anomalous moisture. In the wet years, low‐pressure systems induce strong cyclonic moisture transports, increasing the PRB precipitation. In the dry years, high‐pressure anomalies over the PRB block the moisture transports from the Indian Ocean and western North Pacific.