Abstract The risk assessment of transmission towers is a critical approach to ensuring the safe and stable operation of power grids. In response to the increasingly frequent and severe impacts of seasonal permafrost on transmission towers in permafrost regions, this paper proposes a novel risk assessment method based on Variable Weight Theory and the Matter-Element Extension Model. By incorporating key influencing factors—such as the number of freeze–thaw cycles, soil moisture content, temperature fluctuations, soil dry density, melting settlement coefficient, and porosity ratio—an indicator system tailored to risk assessment in seasonal permafrost regions is established. Utilizing the Matter-Element Extension Model, this approach applies Variable Weight Theory to integrate both the best-worst method and the entropy weight method for calculating subjective and objective indicator weights. The risk level of the towers is then determined by their proximity to risk thresholds. Finally, a case study involving transmission towers in a specific region of a province in China is presented, where the assessment results are compared with the actual conditions to validate the rationality and effectiveness of the proposed method.
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