Climate change in recent decades has increased the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events, causing varied moisture contents in the ballasted track, which greatly challenges railway operation and track maintenance. Currently, most research about permanent deformation of fouled ballast are under dry condition or with a moisture content in the individual tested sample, which could not fully represent varied moisture conditions in the field induced by varying rainfall intensities. In this paper, permanent deformation of field-sourced fouled ballast under progressive wetting condition was investigated using large-scale triaxial cyclic tests. The results indicate that, with progressively rising water contents (0% to 12%), the fouled ballast sample maintained their stability; however, the rate of permanent strain increases to a peak value before experiencing a slight decline, aligning with classified shakedown ranges. This observed phenomenon can be attributed to the interplay between wetting, densification, and interlocking under conditions of cyclic loading and progressive wetting, an aspect that existing research have not elaborated. To encapsulate the identified deformation characteristics, this study proposes and validates a new predictive model for the permanent deformation of fouled ballast, demonstrating high prediction accuracy for fouled ballast with varying water contents.
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