Rainfall Modes Research Articles

Organized precipitation and associated large‐scale circulation patterns over the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

AbstractThe Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is characterized by a desert climate, with rainfall mainly occurring during the cooler months (November–April) and sometimes in conjunction with intense extratropical systems that can cause serious damage and casualties. Given the vast size of KSA, there are gaps in understanding the association between large‐scale atmospheric circulations and local organized rainfall events, and in characterizing the diversity of this association. To address these gaps, we analyse an in‐house 5‐km horizontal grid spacing regional atmospheric reanalysis that has been specifically generated for the Arabian Peninsula to explore the mechanisms behind the organized rainfall events over KSA. Nine major regions with distinct climate regimes were objectively selected to represent KSA rainfall climatology. The results demonstrate that organized thunderstorms over KSA only occur under sufficient moisture and environmental instabilities. Mesoscale convective systems responsible for organized rainfall generally develop and propagate with low‐level moisture flow from the nearby seas (the Red Sea to the west and Arabian Gulf to the east) toward the desert. In the central part of KSA, the most frequent physical mechanism responsible for rainfall is winter extratropical influence, followed by spring extratropical–tropical interactions, and spring tropical influence. The east coast is characterized by two rainfall modes: a continuous southwest–northeast rain corridor and concentrated southwestern rain. Large‐scale organized convection following three physically distinct mechanisms (extratropical, transition and tropical) is revealed along the west coast.

Spatiotemporal Characterization of Dengue Incidence and Its Correlation to Climate Parameters in Indonesia.

Dengue has become a public health concern in Indonesia since it was first found in 1968. This study aims to determine dengue hotspot areas and analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of dengue and its association with dominant climate parameters nationally. Monthly data for dengue and climate observations (i.e., rainfall, relative humidity, average, maximum, and minimum temperature) at the regency/city level were utilized. Dengue hotspot areas were determined through K-means clustering, while Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) determined dominant climate parameters and their spatiotemporal distribution. Results revealed four clusters: Cluster 1 comprised cities with medium to high Incidence Rates (IR) and high Case Densities (CD) in a narrow area. Cluster 2 has a high IR and low CD, and clusters 3 and 4 featured medium and low IR and CD, respectively. SVD analysis indicated that relative humidity and rainfall were the most influential parameters on IR across all clusters. Temporal fluctuations in the first mode of IR and climate parameters were clearly delineated. The spatial distribution of heterogeneous correlation between the first mode of rainfall and relative humidity to IR exhibited higher values, which were predominantly observed in Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, the eastern part of Sumatra, the southern part of Kalimantan, and several locations in Sulawesi.

Seasonal Tropical–Extratropical Teleconnections Originating from Tropical Rainfall Modes Independent of the Niño-3.4 Index in Northern Winters

Abstract This study, based on an analysis with observational and reanalysis data, highlights seasonal tropical–extratropical atmospheric teleconnections originating from tropical rainfall modes unrelated to the Niño-3.4 index for northern winters. The mode decomposition for tropical rainfall is done by first removing the Niño-3.4 index–related variability from the tropical rainfall and then applying rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis to the residual. The corresponding teleconnection patterns are obtained by regressing global atmospheric fields against the time series of the rainfall modes. Analyses of the tropical heating–atmospheric circulation relationship indicate that the circulation anomalies corresponding to the rainfall modes are forced responses to the corresponding rainfall mode. The teleconnection patterns reveal some new features and show that some intrinsic midlatitude patterns can be triggered by tropical forcing with different rainfall patterns. Results from this study are relevant to seasonal climate attribution and prediction analyses and climate model evaluation. As an illustration, the teleconnections from the rainfall modes, together with that related to the Niño-3.4 index and linear trend, are applied to the attribution analyses for the global circulation anomalies of 2019/20 winter and the California dry condition during the strong El Niño winter of 2015/16. The overall impact of these modes in the period of 1980–2021 is also discussed. Significance Statement This study highlights the seasonal tropical–extratropical atmospheric teleconnections independent of the Niño-3.4 index using tropical rainfall modes for northern winters. The reason for using rainfall rather than SST in the mode decomposition is that rainfall represents vertically integrated latent heat, which is the direct forcing of the tropical atmosphere, while SST may have no definite relationship with rainfall in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region. The results of this study are applicable to the analysis of climate attribution and prediction and climate model evaluation, and further, may also have the potential to help improve seasonal climate forecasts.

Influencing factors associated with the second dominant pattern of the Indian summer monsoon

AbstractThe interannual variation of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) affects millions of people in India and the global weather and climate. The teleconnections that affect this variation are not stable. The recent four decades of the second dominant mode of ISM rainfall show a unique north–south tripole pattern, with above‐normal rainfall in the north and peninsular India sandwiching suppressed rainfall in central‐east India. The pattern relates to extending the Indo‐Pacific warm‐pool's warmer sea‐surface temperature (SST) towards the south of the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean. Most of the time, this warming and the extension of the warm‐pool's warmer SST are associated with La Niña events, which activate more in situ vigorous convection. The Rossby‐gyres generated west of the equatorial heating increase the tropospheric height over north India, shifting and strengthening the Tibetan High northwards, facilitating heavy rainfall in the north. Meanwhile, the more vigorous convection south of the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean produces compensatory subsidence over central‐east India, suppressing rainfall. The northern hemispheric Rossby‐gyres brings anomalous cyclonic circulation over peninsular India, producing excess rainfall. Also, the dipole pressure anomaly between the northwest Pacific and south tropical Indian Ocean generates anomalous lower‐level easterly winds over the Bay of Bengal. It supplies excess moisture to the north India convections. The co‐occurrence of the active Atlantic intertropical convergence zone supports this tripole rainfall pattern. This teleconnection could further be examined in climate models.

Unravelling the mechanism of summer monsoon rainfall modes over the west coast of India using model simulations

AbstractA transition from a predominantly offshore to an onshore rainfall phase over the west coast of India was simulated using three one‐way nested domains with 12, 4, and 1.33 km horizontal grid spacing in the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The mechanism of offshore–onshore rainfall oscillation and the orographic effects of the Western Ghats are studied. A convective parametrization scheme was employed only in the 12 km domain. A trough extending offshore from the west coast facilitates offshore rainfall. This trough is absent during the onshore phase, and rainfall occurs over the coast mainly via orographic uplift by the Western Ghats. The model overestimates rainfall over the Western Ghats at all resolutions as it consistently underestimates the boundary‐layer stratification along the coast. Weaker stratification weakens the blocking effect of the Western Ghats, resulting in anomalous deep convection and rainfall over its windward slopes. The 4 and 1.33 km domains simulate the offshore‐to‐onshore transition of rainfall but fail to capture a sufficient contrast in rainfall between land and sea compared with observations. The 12 km domain produces light rainfall, anchored along the coast, throughout the simulation period and, hence, gravely underestimates the offshore rainfall. The offshore rainfall persisted in the 4 and 1.33 km domains in a sensitivity experiment in which the Western Ghats were flattened. This suggests that orographic effects do not significantly influence offshore rainfall. In another experiment, the convective parametrization scheme in the 12 km domain was turned off. This experiment simulated the offshore and onshore rainfall phases correctly to some extent but the rainfall intensity was unrealistically high. Thus, a model with a horizontal grid spacing of , in which convection evolves explicitly, is desired for simulating the west‐coast rainfall variations. However, improvements in the representation of boundary‐layer processes are needed to capture the land–sea contrast.

What is the probability that a drought will break in Australia?

Large scale modes of climate variability influence rainfall and soil moisture in southeastern Australia, and extended dry conditions have been associated with a lack of climate mode phases conducive to wetter conditions. However, the role of large-scale climate variability in breaking ongoing soil moisture droughts has not been well quantified, and the utility of large-scale signals in drought recovery assessments have not been explored. Here, we study the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the probability of soil moisture drought breaking in eastern and southeastern Australia, using logistic regression modelling. A long-term historical dataset from the Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape (AWRA-L) model is used for the assessment. The probability estimates from the logistic regression modelling validate well against observed probability of a drought ending. We then use model estimates to understand the probability contributions from different climate modes. We show that there is a seasonal pattern in soil moisture drought breaking probabilities with higher probabilities in austral summer in eastern Australia and summer/autumn in southeastern Australia. ENSO has the largest influence on probabilities in winter with extreme opposite phases of the mode resulting in regional average probability differences of 15–26%. The IOD exhibits the largest influences during spring and winter and opposite phases result in differences of about 18%. The method can be used to estimate soil moisture drought breaking probabilities in near real-time during drought events, and may assist decision making by managers engaged in drought risk and water resources planning.

Orographic Effect and the Opposite Trend of Rainfall in Central Vietnam

Central Vietnam is characterized by severe flooding associated with heavy rainfall events caused by interactions between multiscale atmospheric circulations and the complex local terrain. Previous studies believed rainfall in central Vietnam is closely related to the cold surge; however, it fails to explain the cause of the early rainfall occurrence in August in the subregion. For the first time, this study investigates the detailed atmospheric mechanisms associated with rainfall variations in central Vietnam using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) applied to the recently developed high-resolution Vietnam gridded precipitation (VnGP) dataset. Reanalysis data NCEP/NCAR is used to associate the rainfall changes with respective atmospheric mechanisms. EOF analysis detected two dominant rainfall modes. The primary mode explains the rainfall variation from October to November over the central and is directly related to the interaction of cold surges and tropical disturbances. The second mode accounts for rainfall occurring in north central from September to mid-October, which is attributed to the westerly summer monsoon activities. Also, we revealed that, while the first mode exhibits a significant correlation with El Niño-southern oscillation, the second depends highly on the contrast of sea surface temperature in the northern and southern Hemispheres. This different oceanic forcing and the local topological effect of Truong Son mountain range reasonably explain the opposite rainfall pattern in central Vietnam in early fall.

Disentangling the Driving Mechanisms of the Tripole Mode of Summer Rainfall over Eastern China

Abstract The spatial distribution of summer rainfall anomalies over eastern China often shows a tripole pattern with rainfall anomalies over the Yangtze River basin varies in opposite phase with North China and South China. It is not clear whether this tripole pattern is an intrinsic atmospheric mode or it is remotely forced. Using two sets of model outputs from 20 models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), this paper investigates the driving mechanisms of this leading rainfall mode and its major influencing factors. One set (piControl) is fully coupled atmosphere–ocean simulations under constant preindustrial forcing and the other (sstClim) is atmosphere-alone models forced by prescribed climatological sea surface temperatures (SSTs). By comparing results from these two different sets of simulations, it is found that the tripole pattern is the leading mode of summer precipitation variability over eastern China with or without oceanic forcing. It can be regarded as an intrinsic atmospheric mode although air–sea interaction can modify its temporal variability. The cyclonic–anticyclonic atmospheric circulation anomaly over the northern North Pacific is identified as a key factor in both experiments. As atmospheric internal variability, it is related to a circumglobal zonal wave train propagating along the westerly jet stream. When air–sea interactions involved, modulation from SST anomalies is exerted through the meridional Pacific–Japan/East Asia–Pacific wave train propagating along the East Asian coast. Our results suggest that the North Pacific could be another key region providing potential predictability to the East Asian monsoon in addition to the Indo-Pacific.

Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation and Their Effect on Bean Yield in Rwanda

This study examines the characteristics of extreme precipitation and its effect on bean yield in Rwanda from 1981 to 2017. Over the study area, two rainy seasons, March to May (MAM) and September to December (SOND), account for approximately 80% of total rainfall. The spatial distribution of rainfall over Rwanda revealed that the first three EOF modes of MAM rainfall vary by 72.72 percent over the study period, while the first three EOF modes of SOND rainfall vary by 57.48 percent. The spatial analysis of extreme precipitation reveals that during wet years, the majority of the country's western regions receive significantly more precipitation than the rest. Throughout the study period, the analysis revealed an increasing trend in all extreme precipitation indices. After 2009, a significant increase in the number of wet days (R1mm) and consecutive dry days (CDD) was observed, as was an increase in the number of consecutive wet days (CWD) after 2005. From 1981 to 1989, bean yield increased; however, after 1990, the trend became stationary and began to decline after 2012. Except for R1mm, CDD, and CWD, which showed a negative correlation, the correlation analysis revealed a positive relationship between extreme precipitation indices and bean yield. Despite the fact that there is a weak negative correlation between bean yield and CDD, CDD can be used as a predictor of bean yield due to the significant Granger causality test at the 95% confidence level. Farmers are advised to use alternative methods to increase soil moisture and water holding capacity during the CDD period to avoid yield loss.

The Relatively Stable Seepage Field: A New Concept to Determine Seepage Field in the Design of a Dry-Stack Tailings Pond

The determination of seepage field is the basis to design seepage drainage facilities and dam slopes in tailings pond. However, in the design of a dry-stack tailings pond with a long service life, previous research has been mostly limited to the influence of short-term rainfall, and a proper concept has not been formed to guide the calculation of the seepage field in the design of a dry-stack tailings pond under the cumulative effect of long-term periodic rainfall. The objective of this study is to propose a new concept to concisely determine the seepage field for the design of a dry-stack tailings pond under multi-year periodic rainfall. To this end, the calculation model of the seepage field of a dry-stack tailings pond under multiyear rainfall was established. The evolution process of the seepage field was studied by numerical simulation based on the calculation model and the final form of the seepage field evolution of a dry-stack tailings pond was found. Accordingly, a new concept, the relatively stable seepage field (RSSF) which can be used as the basis for seepage drainage facilities and the dam slope design of a dry-stack tailings pond, was proposed and named. Furthermore, the influencing factors of a relatively stable seepage field were studied by numerical simulation. The results show that: (1) the cumulative infiltration of long-term periodic rainfall is the main reason for the formation of the RSSF, and (2) under the condition of constant annual rainfall, the distribution of the RSSF has little to do with the selection of rainfall mode. Therefore, a new understanding has been formed from this article whereby the RSSF is an essential basis to be considered in the design of the dam slope and drainage system of a dry-stack tailings pond.

Intra-seasonal variability of autumn rainfall in the Yangtze River Delta and its related atmospheric circulations

In the densely populated and economically developed Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region, abnormal rainfall in autumn (September–November) has important implications for economic development, food security, and livelihoods. Here we explore the intra-seasonal variability of autumn rainfall in the YRD and pre-evolution of related atmospheric circulations, which can help to improve intra-seasonal rainfall prediction skills in the autumn season. Intra-seasonal variability of autumn rainfall over the YRD exhibits two dominant timescales, a quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) cycle associated with tropical cyclones, and an intra-seasonal oscillation (ISO) cycle controlled by large-scale atmospheric circulation. Considering the more stable and robust ISO than QWBO, the ISO is primarily addressed here. Two dominant ISO modes in autumn rainfall are identified by using an empirical orthogonal function analysis. The first ISO mode is characterized by a monopole with regional consistent rainfall anomalies (MP mode), whereas the second ISO mode has a meridional dipole structure with opposite rainfall anomalies over the south and north part of YRD (DP mode). These two ISO modes are modulated by the ISO propagation of atmospheric circulation in key areas, including the Bay of Bengal, the western North Pacific, and the Okhotsk Sea, from 25-day to 10-day lead when the rainfall mode is enhanced. The MP mode (regional enhanced rainfall) is related to regional active moist convection, strong western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and active cold air invasion via Lake Baikal. The DP mode (moist in the south and dry in the north) is accompanied by north-south convective dipoles, weak WPSH and inactive cold air outbreaks.

The role of air–sea coupling on November–April intraseasonal rainfall variability over the South Pacific

We investigate the impact of resolving air-sea interaction on the simulation of the intraseasonal rainfall variability over the South Pacific using the ECHAM5 atmospheric general circulation model coupled with the Snow-Ice-Thermocline (SIT) ocean model. We compare the fully coupled simulation with two uncoupled ECHAM5 simulations, one forced with sea surface temperature (SST) climatology and one forced with daily SST from the coupled model. The intraseasonal rainfall variability over the South Pacific is reduced by 17% in the uncoupled model forced with SST climatology and increased by 8% in the uncoupled simulation forced with daily SST, suggesting the role of air–sea coupling and SST variability. The coupled model best simulates the key characteristics of the two dominant patterns (modes) of intraseasonal rainfall variability over the South Pacific with reasonable propagation and correct periodicity. The spatial structure of the two rainfall modes in all three simulations is very similar, suggesting the dynamics of the atmosphere primarily generate these modes. The southeastward propagation of rainfall anomalies associated with two leading rainfall modes in the South Pacific depends upon the eastward propagating Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) signals from the Indian Ocean and western Pacific. Air-sea interaction improves such propagation as both eastward and southeastward propagations are substantially reduced in the uncoupled model forced with SST climatology. The simulation of both eastward and southeastward propagations considerably improved in the uncoupled model forced with daily SST; however, the periodicity differs from the coupled model. Such discrepancy in the periodicity is attributed to the changes in the SST-rainfall relationship with weaker correlations and the nearly in-phase relationship, attributed to enhanced positive latent heat flux feedbacks.

Simulation of Summer Rainfall in Thailand by IAP-AGCM4.1

Thailand is located in the Southeast Asian region, where the summer rainfall exhibits strong interannual variability, and the successful simulation of rainfall variation in Thailand by current climate models remains a challenge. Therefore, this paper evaluates the capability of the state-of-the-art Atmospheric GCM of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP-AGCM) in simulating summer rainfall over Thailand by comparing the model’s results with ground-truth observation during 1981–2012. Generally, the model shows a certain skill in reproducing the observed spatial distribution of the summer rainfall climatology and its interannual variability over Thailand, although the model underestimated both rainfall amount and its variability. Using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis, it is found that the IAP climate model reproduced creditably the spatial patterns of the first three dominant modes of summer rainfall in Thailand, whereas it underestimated the explained variance of the observed EOF-1 and overestimated the explained variance of the observed EOF-2 significantly. It was further found that the correlation between the observed rainfall anomalies in Thailand and the Niño3.4 index can be reproduced by the IAP model. However, the observed negative correlation is largely underestimated by the IAP climate model, and this could be the reason for the underestimation of explained variance of the EOF-1 by the IAP model. The evaluation results would be of great importance for further model improvement and thus potential application in seasonal prediction in the region.

Evaluation of Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of Rainfall Variations over Thailand Inferred from Different Gridded Datasets

The fidelity of gridded rainfall datasets is important for the characterization of rainfall features across the globe. This study investigates the climatology, interannual variability, and spatial-temporal variations of seasonal rainfall over Thailand during the 1970–2007 period using station data obtained from the Thai Meteorological Department (TMDstn). In addition, the performance of three gridded rainfall datasets, namely APHRODITE, CRU, and GPCC, in reproducing these seasonal rainfall features were intercompared and further validated with the results derived from the TMDstn. Results show that the gridded datasets can reproduce the spatial distribution of the TMDstn’s summer mean rainfall. However, large systematic underestimation is seen in APHRODITE, while GPCC shows better agreement with TMDstn as compared to others. In the winter, the spatial distribution of the seasonal mean of rainfall is well captured by all gridded data, especially in the upper part of Thailand, while they failed to capture high rainfall intensity in the south and the eastern parts of Thailand. Meanwhile, all the gridded datasets underestimated the interannual variability of summer and winter season rainfall. Using EOF analysis, we demonstrate that all the gridded datasets captured the first two dominant modes of summer rainfall, while they underestimated the explained variance of EOF-1. In the winter season, a good agreement is found between the first two modes of the TMDstn and the gridded datasets for both the spatial pattern and temporal variation. Overall, the GPCC data show relatively better performance in reproducing the spatial distribution of rainfall climatology and their year-to-year variation over Thailand. Furthermore, the performance of the gridded datasets over Thailand is largely dependent on the season and the complexity of the topography. However, this study indicates the existence of systematic bias in the gridded rainfall datasets when compared with TMDstn. Therefore, this indicates the need for users to pay attention to the reliability of gridded rainfall datasets when trying to identify possible mechanisms responsible for the interannual variability of seasonal rainfall over Thailand.

Laboratory assessment of media clogging in bioretention systems: Effects of sawdust addition, plant species and dry-wet alternation

Bioretention system has received increasing attention as a more natural approach to stormwater management, while clogging is recognized as the main limiting factor in its long-term operation. In this study, a laboratory-scale bioretention systems were constructed to investigate the influence of different factors on the media clogging. The addition of sawdust in filter media (sand and sandy loam soil mixture) had no obvious effect on suspended solids (SS) accumulation and matrix porosity in different depth of filter, but effectively increased the hydraulic conductivity of bioretention systems. Similarly, there was also no significant difference in spatial or temporal variations in SS accumulation between three systems with different plants (p > 0.05). Nevertheless, plant species had significant influence on the hydraulic conductivity, with Acorus calamus L. demonstrating to be appropriate to mitigating the clogging (p < 0.05). Dry-wet alternation helped to improve the hydraulic performance. The results showed that the upper layer (0–20 cm) was more prone to clogging while dry period was conductive to alleviating media clogging no matter in summer or winter rainfall mode. This study will contribute to a greater understanding of the hydraulic performance and provide guidance for alleviating media clogging in bioretention systems.

The decadal shift in TC-induced precipitation over China

This study examines changes in tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall and the associated contributing factors over China during 1960–2018. The dominant mode of TC rainfall decreases from south to north, with a maximum in Guangdong Province. The associated time series of principal components reveals clear interdecadal variation, and three change points can be identified based on Lepage analysis: the late 1970s, early 1990s, and early 2000s. Before the 2000s, TC rainfall patterns are dominated by different processes in different subregions of South China. The maximum TC-induced rainfall in South China is attributed mainly to the TC rainfall frequency effect and TC genesis effect. TC-induced rainfall in East China is modulated primarily by TC rainfall intensity and TC track. After the 2000s, TCs north of the Yangtze River increase, especially in Shandong Province. Further examination of TC passage frequency reveals that increasing TC rainfall in the north of southeastern China is contributed largely by a northwestward shift in TC tracks.

Function of a Deep-Buried Isolated Trench and Its Effect on Cracking Failure Characteristics of a Slope under Artificial Rainfall

When tests are conducted on the field slope under artificial rainfall, because artificial rainfall is often limited to implementation in the mode of local rainfall, there is a boundary constraint effect between the rainfall area and the non-rainfall area, which is manifested in the lateral infiltration of rainwater and the slope deformation retardation of non-rainfall area to the rainfall area. Firstly, a deep-buried isolated trench was proposed to solve these boundary constraints. Then, field cracking tests and the corresponding numerical simulation were conducted under rainfall. In the end, the response of water content and the cracking failure characteristics of the slope were analyzed during rainfall, and the effect of a deep-buried isolated trench on the cracking characteristics of the slope was evaluated. The results indicate that the proposed deep-buried isolated trench measure can effectively eliminate the deformation retardation resulting from the adjacent non-rainfall area so a through-crack parallel to the slope shoulder that extended on both sides of the boundary of the rainfall slope was observed at the slope crest and a cracking failure in the shape of the overall downward cutting was realized. As the crack occurred, the rainwater infiltration further aggravated expansion of depthwise cracks, and a local sliding zone was formed in the upper part of the slope. The deep-buried isolated trench solves the boundary constraints, such as lateral infiltration of rainwater and deformation retardation, and can provide an effective technical measure for the field slope test under artificial rainfall.

On the added value of statistical post-processing of regional climate models to identify homogeneous patterns of summer rainfall anomalies in Germany

A fuzzy classification scheme that results in physically interpretable meteorological patterns associated with rainfall generation is applied to classify homogeneous regions of boreal summer rainfall anomalies in Germany. Four leading homogeneous regions are classified, representing the western, southeastern, eastern, and northern/northwestern parts of Germany with some overlap in the central parts of Germany. Variations of the sea level pressure gradient across Europe, e.g., between the continental and maritime regions, is the major phenomenon that triggers the time development of the rainfall regions by modulating wind patterns and moisture advection. Two regional climate models (REMO and CCLM4) were used to investigate the capability of climate models to reproduce the observed summer rainfall regions. Both regional climate models (RCMs) were once driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis and once by the MPI-ESM general circulation model (GCM). Overall, the RCMs exhibit good performance in terms of the regionalization of summer rainfall in Germany; though the goodness-of-match with the rainfall regions/patterns from observational data is low in some cases and the REMO model driven by MPI-ESM fails to reproduce the western homogeneous rainfall region. Under future climate change, virtually the same leading modes of summer rainfall occur, suggesting that the basic synoptic processes associated with the regional patterns remain the same over Germany. We have also assessed the added value of bias-correcting the MPI-ESM driven RCMs using a simple linear scaling approach. The bias correction does not significantly alter the identification of homogeneous rainfall regions and, hence, does not improve their goodness-of-match compared to the observed patterns, except for the one case where the original RCM output completely fails to reproduce the observed pattern. While the linear scaling method improves the basic statistics of precipitation, it does not improve the simulated meteorological patterns represented by the precipitation regimes.

Three leading coupled modes of summer rainfall with atmospheric circulations over northern East Asia

AbstractNorthern East Asia (NEA) is characterized by wet monsoon region in the east and mid‐latitude westerly‐controlled dry inland in the west in summer, where ecosystem and environment are vulnerable to rainfall variability. Previous studies found close relationship between summer rainfall in NEA and local large‐scale atmospheric circulation systems including East Asian upper‐tropospheric westerly jet (EAJ) and middle‐tropospheric trough (EAT), and lower‐tropospheric low over NEA (NEAL). However, major features of rainfall–circulation coupling over NEA are still not fully understood. This study addresses this issue using multivariate empirical orthogonal functions method based on the ERA‐Interim reanalysis dataset and the GPCP precipitation data for 1979–2018. Three leading coupled modes are identified, together accounting for 30–50% of summer rainfall year‐to‐year variance in most of NEA. The first mode features consistent decrease of rainfall in NEA related to the decelerated EAJ, southward shifted EAT, and weakened NEAL, with a significant interdecadal change in late 1990s. The second mode exhibits a meridional dipole rainfall pattern, with less rainfall along the East Asian subtropical rainy belt and more rainfall in southern Russian Far East, coupled with the northward shifted EAJ, weakened EAT, and intensified NEAL. The third mode presents a zonal dipole rainfall pattern, with suppressed rainfall in southern Russia east of northeast China and enhanced rainfall around the Lake Baikal related to the decelerated EAJ, and westward shifted EAT and NEAL. Further investigation shows that the first mode is remotely modulated by summer rainfall anomalies in the Sahel region and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on the interdecadal timescales, and by the Polar/Eurasia teleconnection on the interannual timescales. The second and third modes are, respectively, modulated by summer rainfall in the western North Pacific and north central‐eastern India through the East Asia‐Pacific and circumglobal teleconnection patterns.

Comprehensive assessment of RegCM4 towards interannual variability of Indian Summer Monsoon using multi-year simulations

In this study, the interannual variability (IAV) of Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is investigated using multi-year (1982‒2016) seasonal scale simulations (May‒September) of the regional climate model RegCM4. Model-simulated fields such as surface temperature, wind and rainfall are validated initially to testify the climatological behaviour of ISM. Subsequently, different aspects of IAV associated with ISM are discussed primarily focusing on model simulated rainfall and are verified against high-resolution rainfall analysis from India Meteorological Department (IMD). Analysis indicated that RegCM4 shows reasonable accuracy in simulating major large-scale features, however, has cold bias over entire India and wet (dry) bias over northwest and peninsular (central) India. Easterly (westerly) bias is noticed in the model simulated low (upper) level wind that affects regional Hadley circulation. The cold bias is found to be associated with the feedback cycle of land–atmosphere interaction. Surface evaporative cooling likely affects the static instability in the atmospheric column, thereby limiting the convection and thus reducing rainfall. While categorizing, it is noticed that the efficacy of the model is found to be better in simulating normal monsoon as compared to contrasting monsoon (deficit and excess) year, thereby reducing the simulation skill for the entire period. EOF analysis revealed that first two leading modes of IMD rainfall are linked with large-scale variabilities, viz. El-Nino Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole, respectively, but RegCM4 could not well reproduce these relationships. The spectral analysis showed 2–7 year periodicity in the model. However, the associated spectral peaks are close to the red noise spectrum due to their weak power suggesting limited model skill to capture large-scale variability. Overall, this study advocates that the RegCM4 could capture the climatological features of ISM fairly well, but needs further improvement in representing the IAV more accurately.