Modes Of Natural Variability Research Articles

THE INFLUENCE OF THE EL NIÑO–SOUTHERN OSCILLATION AND OTHER TELECONNECTIONS ON WINTER STORMS IN THE NORTH AMERICAN NORTHEAST—A CASE STUDY

Ice storms and blizzards are two types of severe weather that periodically strike the North American northeast. The most powerful examples of each can occur under conducive mesoscale and synoptic conditions. Given the inherent variability of both the weather and climate of the region, this study examined the ways in which two storms, the Blizzard of 1996 and the Ice Storm of 1998, evolved within the context of the larger-scale flow. The latter is not static. Instead, there are various modes of natural variability like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Tropical/Northern Hemisphere pattern, and the Pacific North American pattern that influence weather patterns locally and globally. The complexity of the interactions of these modes on blocking patterns, precipitation anomalies, and jet stream modifications were explored in the quest to determine whether certain configurations of oscillations were more conducive to blizzard versus ice storm development over the northeast. [Key words: blizzard, ice storm, North American northeast, teleconnections.]