Modern Analogue Technique Research Articles

Morphometric analysis in the shells of the planktonic foraminifera Orbulina universa: a source for paleoceanographic information?

Abstract In this study, we describe morphometric analyses of Orbulina universa morphotypes presently found in the Western South Atlantic, and their relation to the upper water thermohaline indexes. We also investigate this relationship under glacial and interglacial conditions between 7.2 and 32 kyr BP. Ten plankton samples distributed between 32o55' and 26o20'S were selected for the analyses of modern O. universa specimens. Core SIS188 was retrieved at 29o22’S, 47o28’W enabling the analysis of 21 fossil samples. Shell diameter, pore diameter, pore density and porosity were measured using SEM images. Chronology of core SIS188 is based on four AMS 14C ages and the planktonic foraminifera oxygen isotope curve. Planktonic foraminifera relative abundances were converted into SST data using the Modern Analog Technique (MAT). Correlations between the morphometric parameters and temperature and salinity of surface Waters (modern samples) or paleotemperature (fossil samples) were calculated. Morphological characteristics of the analyzed shells allowed to differentiate two morphotypes of O. universa, namely Caribbean and Mediterranean in the studied region. For the Caribbean morphotype, the large pore density showed a negative correlation with both temperature and salinity. For the Mediterranean morphotype, no significant correlations were found. For fossil samples, no significant correlations were found between summer SST (0-50m) and morphometric parameters for the Caribbean or the Mediterranean morphotypes. Possibly, other genotypes do exist in the fossil record, so modern and fossil morphotypes would not have the same behavior. Another explanation for the absence of correlation in fossil samples are errors associated with the SST estimates. Furthermore, fossil samples could represent distinct and more complex oceanographic conditions compared to current configuration, with Plata Plume Water and Brazil Malvinas Confluence migration playing a most significant role in the past.

A pollen–climate calibration from western Patagonia for palaeoclimatic reconstructions

ABSTRACTPalaeoecological studies of sediment records from the western margins of southern South America have revealed vegetation dynamics to be under the influence of major regional climate drivers such as the Southern Westerly Winds, Southern Annular Mode and El Niño Southern Oscillation. Despite the substantial number of palynological records in this region, very few quantitative pollen‐based climate reconstructions using surface samples have been made. In this context, our objective was first to investigate the modern pollen–vegetation–climate relationships in the western Patagonian. The results show that the modern pollen dataset reflects the main vegetation types and that summer precipitation and winter temperature represent the main climate parameters controlling vegetation distribution. Secondly using this pollen–climate dataset we evaluate and compare the performance of two models (Weighted Averaging Partial Least Squares and Modern Analog Technique). We used these models to make climate reconstructions from two oceanic pollen records from western Patagonia. Compared with independent climate indicators, our pollen‐inferred climate reconstructions reveal the same overall trends, showing the potential of pollen–climate transfer functions applied to this region. This study provides much needed data for quantitative climate reconstructions in South America, but which also needs to be improved by enlarging the modern pollen dataset.

Mid- to late Pliocene (3.3–2.6 Ma) global sea-level fluctuations recorded on a continental shelf transect, Whanganui Basin, New Zealand

We present a ∼900 m-thick, mid- (3.3–3.0 Ma) to late Pliocene (3.0–2.6 Ma), shallow-marine, cyclical sedimentary succession from Whanganui Basin, New Zealand that identifies paleobathymetric changes, during a warmer-than-present interval of Earth history, relevant to future climate change. Our approach applies lithofacies, sequence stratigraphy and benthic foraminiferal analyses to two continuously-cored drillholes integrated with new and existing outcrop studies. We construct a depositional model of orbitally-paced, global sea-level changes on a wave-graded continental shelf. Unlike many previous studies, these shelf sediments were not eroded during sea-level lowstands and thus provide the potential to reconstruct the full amplitude of glacial-interglacial sea-level change. Paleobathymetric interpretations are underpinned by analysis of extant benthic foraminiferal census data and a statistical correlation with the distribution of modern taxa. In general, water depths derived from foraminiferal Modern Analogue Technique (MAT), are consistent with variability recorded by lithofacies.The inferred sea-level cycles co-vary with a qualitative climate record reconstructed from a census of extant pollen and spores, and a modern temperature relationship. A high-resolution age model is established using magnetostratigraphy constrained by biostratigraphy, and the dating and correlation of tephra. This integrated chronostratigraphy allows the recognition of 23 individual sedimentary cycles, that are correlated across the paleo-shelf and a possible “one-to-one” relationship is made to deep-ocean benthic oxygen isotope (δ18O) records. In general water depth changes were paced by ∼20 kyr duration between 3.3 and 3.0 Ma, after which cycle duration is ∼40 kyr during the late Pliocene (3.0–2.6 Ma). This record provides a future opportunity to evaluate the amplitude and frequency of global, Pliocene glacio-eustatic sea-level change, independent of the global benthic δ18O record.

Testate amoebae as a hydrological proxy for reconstructing water-table depth in the mires of south-eastern Australia

Although it is well established that moisture availability in south-eastern Australia has been decreasing through time recently, the driver(s) of this trend are contentious, and our understanding of any drivers is limited by a relatively short historic record. Testate amoebae have been widely used to reconstruct peatland hydrology in the Northern Hemisphere, but in the Southern Hemisphere research is still needed to assess their proficiency as a palaeohydrological proxy and to develop robust transfer functions. Here we examine the ecology of testate amoebae in several high altitude mires in south-eastern Australia and present the first transfer function for the continent. Euglypha tuberculata type, Centropyxis platystoma type and Assulina muscorum were the most common taxa in our modern samples. Water-table depth was the primary environmental variable determining testate amoebae assemblages and therefore transfer functions were developed for this ecological factor. We found that the performance of various all-species and species-pruned transfer functions were statistically robust, with R2 values of around 0.8 and Root Mean Squared Error of Prediction (RMSEP) values of about 7 cm. All cross-validation methods (leave-one-out RMSEP, cluster-bootstrap RMSEP, segment-wise RMSEP and leave-one-site-out RMSEP from all-species and species-pruned transfer functions) suggested that the Modern Analogue Technique (MAT) was the best performing transfer function, with negligible bias evident from un-even sampling and spatial autocorrelation. We also used a new approach to evaluate the importance of taxa and the performance of our transfer functions using species-pruned methods. Our results suggest that the all-species MAT, with an RMSEP of 5.73 and R2 of 0.86, provides the best reconstruction of water-table depth across our sites in south-eastern Australia.

Paleoceanography of northeastern Fram Strait since the last glacial maximum: Palynological evidence of large amplitude changes

Sea-surface conditions in northeastern Fram Strait since the last glacial maximum (LGM) were reconstructed from cores MSM5/5-712-2 and PS2863/1–2 based on palynological assemblages, ecological preferences of dinocysts and application of the modern analog technique. Dinocyst in LGM sediments are sparse, but their assemblages reflect mild summer conditions. Given the regional context and evidence from other tracers, the dinocyst assemblages of the LGM could relate to regional fluxes of dinocysts during exceptional mild summers. From 19 to 14.7 ka, dinocyst data suggest very cold conditions with extensive sea-ice cover, while abundant reworked palynomorphs indicate intense glacial erosion. An abrupt transition at 14.7–14.5 ka was marked by a peak in summer temperatures coinciding with a rapidly deposited sediment layer related to a regional meltwater plume event in western Svalbard. From 14.7 to 12.6 ka, large seasonal temperature contrasts with mild summers and cold winters together with low salinity indicate continuous melting of the Svalbard Barents Sea ice sheet fostered by warm climate. At 12.6 ka, the regional onset of the Younger Dryas was marked by cooling and increased salinity. On a regional scale, the 12.6–12 ka interval corresponds to an important transition involving enhanced circulation of Arctic waters around Svalbard and establishment of coastal fronts along its northern and western margins. Modern-like oceanic conditions with relatively high salinity and low seasonal temperature contrast developed at about 7.6 ka. Since then, a slight cooling is observed, especially in winter. This study offers a comprehensive picture of the deglacial phases in eastern Fram Strait with unique data on the sea-surface salinity, which controls surface water stratification and plays an important role in ocean circulation.

Heterogeneous vegetation sensitivity at local and regional scales: Implications for pollen-based climate reconstruction

Vegetation–climate relationships are often different at varying spatial scales, which is seldom taken into account in reconstructing past climate changes from fossil pollen spectra represent more local vegetation composition but using regional or extra-regional modern pollen–climate calibration set. In this paper, we employ 2620 surface pollen spectra and six pollen sequences from continental East Asia to reconstruct Holocene climate with modern analogue technique. A novel data set of vegetation sensitivity index (VSI) is introduced to examine vegetation–climate relationships in 0.5° search windows around the fossil sites (local) and in the tailored calibration sets (regional). Then, we compare them to the explanatory abilities of (reconstructed) climate variables on explaining the pollen variance in calibration sets and in the fossil pollen data sets using constrained ordination, cross-validation and significance test. By this procedure that we called local–regional–fossil comparison, we can better determine which variable reconstruction is valid and useful. In our cases, moisture variable reconstructions in temperate forest-steppe ecotone at the East Asian summer monsoon margin are reliable. Consistent Holocene moisture variations with a strong monsoon influence during 8.6–4.0 cal ka BP which can help us to better interpret human adaptations along the Great Wall. However, quantitative climate reconstructions at some sites are less reliable due to highly heterogeneous vegetation sensitivities surrounding the site, particularly for areas with complicated topographical contexts. We stress that vegetation sensitivities at local and regional scales both need to be investigated before conducting quantitative climate reconstruction.

Phytolith-inferred transfer function for paleohydrological reconstruction of Dajiuhu peatland, central China

Depth to water table (DWT, the depth from the water surface to the top of the peat surface) is one of the most important environmental variables related to the habitat types and distribution of vegetation within a subalpine peatland. The distribution of phytolith assemblages and basic environmental data from 43 surface soil samples with significant ecological and hydrological gradients were investigated to generate transfer functions for quantitative reconstruction of paleoenvironmental changes in Dajiuhu peatland, central China. Detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) and redundancy analysis (RDA) were employed to explore the relationship between main environmental variables and phytolith morphotypes and distributions. Our results indicate that the spatial distribution of phytoliths was significantly correlated with the DWT (25% variance), total organic carbon (TOC, 10% variance) and magnetic susceptibility (χ, 7% variance). We established the transfer functions for the significant variables based on modern analogue technique (MAT), weighted averaging techniques (WA) and weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS), and model performance was assessed using bootstrap cross-validation. The high correspondence of the predicted DWT results based on phytolith-environment calibration data with observed data reflects that the phytolith-based WA-PLS is a reliable effective calibration method for the quantitative DWT reconstruction of ombrotrophic (rain-fed) subalpine peatland.

European Forest Cover During the Past 12,000 Years: A Palynological Reconstruction Based on Modern Analogs and Remote Sensing.

Characterization of land cover change in the past is fundamental to understand the evolution and present state of the Earth system, the amount of carbon and nutrient stocks in terrestrial ecosystems, and the role played by land-atmosphere interactions in influencing climate. The estimation of land cover changes using palynology is a mature field, as thousands of sites in Europe have been investigated over the last century. Nonetheless, a quantitative land cover reconstruction at a continental scale has been largely missing. Here, we present a series of maps detailing the evolution of European forest cover during last 12,000 years. Our reconstructions are based on the Modern Analog Technique (MAT): a calibration dataset is built by coupling modern pollen samples with the corresponding satellite-based forest-cover data. Fossil reconstructions are then performed by assigning to every fossil sample the average forest cover of its closest modern analogs. The occurrence of fossil pollen assemblages with no counterparts in modern vegetation represents a known limit of analog-based methods. To lessen the influence of no-analog situations, pollen taxa were converted into plant functional types prior to running the MAT algorithm. We then interpolate site-specific reconstructions for each timeslice using a four-dimensional gridding procedure to create continuous gridded maps at a continental scale. The performance of the MAT is compared against methodologically independent forest-cover reconstructions produced using the REVEALS method. MAT and REVEALS estimates are most of the time in good agreement at a trend level, yet MAT regularly underestimates the occurrence of densely forested situations, requiring the application of a bias correction procedure. The calibrated MAT-based maps draw a coherent picture of the establishment of forests in Europe in the Early Holocene with the greatest forest-cover fractions reconstructed between ∼8,500 and 6,000 calibrated years BP. This forest maximum is followed by a general decline in all parts of the continent, likely as a result of anthropogenic deforestation. The continuous spatial and temporal nature of our reconstruction, its continental coverage, and gridded format make it suitable for climate, hydrological, and biogeochemical modeling, among other uses.

Late Holocene Sea Surface Instabilities in the Disko Bugt Area, West Greenland, in Phase With δ18O Oscillations at Camp Century

AbstractPalynological analyses of sediment core MSM343310 from Disko Bugt (68°38′861°N, 53°49′493°W) document decadal‐ to centennial‐scale variability of sea surface conditions during the last ~3,600 years. Dinocyst fluxes (>104 cysts/cm2 yr−1) indicate a very high productivity. Dinocyst assemblages dominated by Islandinium minutum, Brigantedinium spp., Islandinium? cezare, and the cyst of Pentapharsodinium dalei suggest low surface salinity and marked shifts in summer sea surface temperature. The application of the modern analog technique to dinocyst assemblages, using an updated reference data set with new sites from the West Greenland margin, led to reconstruct decadal‐centennial‐scale variations in sea surface salinity and temperature, in phase with the δ18O variations in the Camp Century ice core. At ~1.5 ka BP, the seasonal sea ice cover records an important regime change, from winter‐only sea ice to more unstable conditions marked by successive cooling pulses with sea ice cover of up to 8 months/yr. The data suggest a close relationship between hydrographic conditions and regional climate over Greenland. Our record shows variations with a mean 200 years periodicity until ~2 ka BP, which supports the hypothesis of climate variations driven by solar variability. After 1.5 ka BP, our data show a variability characterized by a 60–70 year periodicity, which suggests linkages with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and southwestward migration of the atmospheric polar front. The most recent part of the record, from ~1900 CE to 2007 CE, is characterized by assemblages reflecting warmer surface conditions and reduced sea ice cover.

Long‐term dynamics of the East European forest‐steppe ecotone

AbstractQuestionThe European forest‐steppe ecotone extends over 6,000 km from the Carpathian to the Ural Mountains. It is extensively used for agriculture with very few patches of semi‐natural vegetation. Little is known about the history of the forest‐steppe ecotone in Eastern Europe and here we examine its Holocene dynamics and stability and investigate when it was transformed to the modern agro‐pastoral landscapes.LocationMid‐Russian Upland.MethodsWe summarize the information from five pollen diagrams for the last 7,000 years and estimate forest cover using the best modern analogue technique. We use the PCA and principal curve analysis to evaluate compositional changes.ResultsThe pollen data suggest that the East European forest‐steppe boundary was located 50–70 km further northwest from the presumed present position during the period 7,000–4,500 cal yr BP. After 4,500 cal year BP, it moved approximately 100–130 km to the southeast. Since 2,000 cal year BP land use affected the boundary, while a total forest clearance and transformation to agricultural landscapes took place in the last 400 years. Pollen data indicate a NW–SE direction of the forest‐steppe vegetation gradient. Prior to clearance, open lime–pedunculate oak forests existed in the NW, while the south was characterized by pine woodlands with an admixture of oak and lime with 20%–40% forest cover.ConclusionsThe East European forest‐steppe ecotone is sensitive to climate change. The Late Holocene expansion of forest cover is in agreement with evidence suggesting an increase in moisture availability during this time. The rapid recovery to a similar composition after human disturbance indicates a high resilience of woodland in the ecotone, which may be connected to a naturally high disturbance regime, possibly through fire. The information revealed on the position of the gradient and natural composition of the forest is currently not depicted in maps of the potential natural vegetation.

Testing the applicability of a benthic foraminiferal-based transfer function for the reconstruction of paleowater depth changes in Rhodes (Greece) during the early Pleistocene.

We present paleo-water depth reconstructions for the Pefka E section deposited on the island of Rhodes (Greece) during the early Pleistocene. For these reconstructions, a transfer function (TF) using modern benthic foraminifera surface samples from the Adriatic and Western Mediterranean Seas has been developed. The TF model gives an overall predictive accuracy of ~50 m over a water depth range of ~1200 m. Two separate TF models for shallower and deeper water depth ranges indicate a good predictive accuracy of 9 m for shallower water depths (0–200 m) but far less accuracy of 130 m for deeper water depths (200–1200 m) due to uneven sampling along the water depth gradient. To test the robustness of the TF, we randomly selected modern samples to develop random TFs, showing that the model is robust for water depths between 20 and 850 m while greater water depths are underestimated. We applied the TF to the Pefka E fossil data set. The goodness-of-fit statistics showed that most fossil samples have a poor to extremely poor fit to water depth. We interpret this as a consequence of a lack of modern analogues for the fossil samples and removed all samples with extremely poor fit. To test the robustness and significance of the reconstructions, we compared them to reconstructions from an alternative TF model based on the modern analogue technique and applied the randomization TF test. We found our estimates to be robust and significant at the 95% confidence level, but we also observed that our estimates are strongly overprinted by orbital, precession-driven changes in paleo-productivity and corrected our estimates by filtering out the precession-related component. We compared our corrected record to reconstructions based on a modified plankton/benthos (P/B) ratio, excluding infaunal species, and to stable oxygen isotope data from the same section, as well as to paleo-water depth estimates for the Lindos Bay Formation of other sediment sections of Rhodes. These comparisons indicate that our orbital-corrected reconstructions are reasonable and reflect major tectonic movements of Rhodes during the early Pleistocene.

Development of new indices of Great Lakes water quality based on profundal benthic communities

Abstract Benthic invertebrate biomonitoring has long been a tool of choice for assessing the impacts of anthropogenic stress in aquatic systems. The Oligochaete Trophic Index (OTI) is used by the U.S. EPA Great Lakes National Program Office to assess Great Lakes trophic status for State of the Great Lakes reporting under the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement. OTI scores are based on pollution tolerances of ubiquitous profundal oligochaetes. OTI limitations include the fact that the index is based on a limited number of species belonging to a single oligochaete class, species assignment to trophic groups in the index were determined by best professional judgment and cannot be tested independently, and the index's correlation with lake productivity has not been evaluated. To address these concerns, we developed two new indices of Great Lakes water quality based on the OTI equation by: (1) expanding the number of oligochaete species included in the index and reassigning previous classifications of oligochaete species to trophic groups (improved OTI, or iOTI); and (2) adding non-oligochaete species to the OTI (modified Trophic Index, or mTI). Finally, we tested a modeling approach using Modern Analogue Technique (MAT) transfer functions based on species responses to a surface chlorophyll gradient to derive assessment of site trophic status and an independent assignment of species to trophic categories. We found that both iOTI and mTI had a stronger relationship with surface remote-sensed spring chlorophyll than did OTI, but MAT models had stronger correlations with chlorophyll than did any of the indices.

Impacts of the spatial extent of pollen-climate calibration-set on the absolute values, range and trends of reconstructed Holocene precipitation

Pollen-based quantitative reconstructions of past climate variables is a standard palaeoclimatic approach. Despite knowing that the spatial extent of the calibration-set affects the reconstruction result, guidance is lacking as to how to determine a suitable spatial extent of the pollen-climate calibration-set. In this study, past mean annual precipitation (Pann) during the Holocene (since 11.5 cal ka BP) is reconstructed repeatedly for pollen records from Qinghai Lake (36.7°N, 100.5°E; north-east Tibetan Plateau), Gonghai Lake (38.9°N, 112.2°E; north China) and Sihailongwan Lake (42.3°N, 126.6°E; north-east China) using calibration-sets of varying spatial extents extracted from the modern pollen dataset of China and Mongolia (2559 sampling sites and 168 pollen taxa in total). Results indicate that the spatial extent of the calibration-set has a strong impact on model performance, analogue quality and reconstruction diagnostics (absolute value, range, trend, optimum). Generally, these effects are stronger with the modern analogue technique (MAT) than with weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS). With respect to fossil spectra from northern China, the spatial extent of calibration-sets should be restricted to radii between ca. 1000 and 1500 km because small-scale calibration-sets (<800 km radius) will likely fail to include enough spatial variation in the modern pollen assemblages to reflect the temporal range shifts during the Holocene, while too broad a scale calibration-set (>1500 km radius) will include taxa with very different pollen-climate relationships.

Late-Quaternary records of vegetation and fire in southeastern North Carolina from Jones Lake and Singletary Lake

We conducted fossil pollen, charcoal, and geochemical analyses of sediment cores from Jones Lake and Singletary Lake spanning the last ∼50,000 cal yr B.P. to examine the linkages between climate, vegetation, and fire activity on the Atlantic Coastal Plain, and particularly emphasize changes since the Last Glacial Maximum. Application of the modern analog technique (MAT) to fossil pollen data allowed for quantitative estimates of Holocene climate, but Pleistocene assemblages had no modern analogues preempting their use for quantitative reconstructions. The MAT data indicate markedly lower mean annual precipitation and temperatures during the late Pleistocene relative to the Holocene. Increased charcoal accumulation during interstadials indicates increased fire activity during these warm intervals. Geochemical data (δ13C, δ15N, C:N) and pollen concentrations indicate a sparsely-vegetated Pleistocene landscape that produced few fires followed by an increase in biomass and fire activity around the lakes during the Holocene transition. A Quercus spp. maximum in the early Holocene is associated with low charcoal abundances, while increased dominance of Pinus spp. during the middle Holocene is associated with dramatic increases in charcoal. It is unclear if the Quercus-Pinus transition was the result of changing fire regimes or if the fire regime changed in response to vegetation. The regional asynchronicity of the Quercus-Pinus transition may indicate another forcing mechanism besides climate change, such as prehistoric human activity, is responsible for the ecological change. Macroscopic charcoal and C:N ratios reach unprecedented values during the late Holocene, possibly as a result of deforestation by both prehistoric Native Americans and later immigrant populations.

Comparison of qualitative and quantitative dinoflagellate cyst approaches in reconstructing glacial-interglacial climate variability at West Iberian Margin IODP ‘Shackleton’ Site U1385

Abstract Dinoflagellate cysts (dinocysts) are commonly used to reconstruct past environmental conditions at the sea surface, such as primary production, temperature and salinity. Abundances of selected dinocyst taxa are used in qualitative indices, whereas the modern analogue technique (MAT) is used for quantitative reconstructions. Qualitative indices use process-based knowledge of present-day relations between the environmental variables and the distribution of dinocysts, whereas the MAT is based on the assumption that past assemblages have modern counterparts that correspond to similar sea-surface conditions. Here we explore the potential of both approaches to reconstruct sea surface temperature (SST), production (SSP), salinity (SSS) and seasonality during the last 22 thousand years along the West Iberian Margin (WIM), at Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Site U1385. We compare results to published paleoclimatic reconstructions. Our SST and SSS reconstructions provide the first continuous dinocyst MAT-based SST and SSS records for this area and time interval. Qualitative and quantitative dinocyst-based SST estimates from the WIM are similar and resemble previous SST estimates from dinocysts, alkenones and foraminifers from nearby sites. The surface temperature trends and millennial-scale variations largely match those from the Greenland ice core records. Quantitative MAT-based SST estimates show increased seasonality in the glacial stage resulting from strong winter cooling. Dinocyst MAT-based salinity decreases concomitantly with cooling during the Younger Dryas and Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1), likely related to the melting of icebergs that reached the region during HS1. Our qualitative and quantitative SSP estimates show higher values in the glacial stage compared to the Holocene, which is consistent with published records and supports the usefulness of both approaches. Small differences between SST tracer records may be explained by the limited number of modern analogues from warm ocean regions in the dinocyst reference dataset for MAT, the small number of dinocysts used in the qualitative estimates, the possible effect of a parameter other than temperature that might amplify noise, and/or seasonal biases of the tracer species. In any case, the advantage of the qualitative approach is to allow reconstructions in non-analogue situations. Regression of the qualitative index versus present-day SST also allows for a quantitative reconstruction, although over a limited range of SSTs (especially towards the lower end) and with quite some uncertainty, but produces reasonable values beyond the upper limit of the MAT. The MAT reconstructs more reliable SSTs, with a much smaller error of prediction, but only up to present-day WIM values, because it is based on the assumption that past assemblages have modern counterparts that correspond to similar sea-surface conditions, which is not always valid. The advantages of the MAT approach include its quantitative nature and insights into seasonality. Hence both approaches are complementary. At Site U1385, MAT can be used for reconstructions in the colder periods (YD, HS1 and glacial stage), with a small error of prediction and the quantified index can be used to estimate SST beyond the limit of the MAT (Holocene and B-A).

A Last Interglacial pollen-temperature reconstruction, central North Island, New Zealand

We present new pollen-temperature reconstructions for the Last Interglacial from central North Island, New Zealand using partial least squares regression (PLS) and modern analogue technique applied with the New Zealand pre-deforestation calibration pollen dataset. The pollen-bearing organic sequence includes numerous millimetre- to decimetre- thick tephra mostly from the adjacent Tongariro Volcanic Centre and is overlain by tephric cover-beds including the c. 25.4 ka cal BP Kawakawa/Oruanui Tephra. Fine-resolution pollen and preliminary diatom analyses above and below prominent tephra layers showed that significant vegetation impact followed only the thickest ashfall event (22 cm thickness), with vegetation recovery taking several hundred years. Apart from this, changes in the longer-term pollen record are likely to be related to climate oscillations that resemble the classic five-fold subdivision of MIS 5. The warmest interval, ascribed to MIS 5e, was characterised by tall, temperate rainforest, and occurs at the base of the sequence, with mean annual temperatures reaching around 1.1 °C higher than present. Mean annual temperatures declined to ∼4 °C below present during MIS 5d and MIS 5b and were within 1–2 °C of present during MIS 5c. The PLS temperature reconstructions are corroborated by estimates derived independently from elevational changes to vegetation communities, corresponding to modern temperature controls, inferred from the Karioi pollen spectra. Temperatures reconstructed quantitatively by the modern analogue technique were up to 1.3 °C higher for MIS 5e, MIS 5d and MIS 5b, possibly reflecting weaker modern vegetation analogues for these intervals.

Demography and climate in Late Eneolithic Ukraine, Moldova, and Romania: Multiproxy evidence and pollen-based regional corroboration

Attempts to correlate macro-scale climate dynamics with anomalies in local and regional archaeological data sets should account for differences in geographic scale and effect size. Using the modern analogue technique, this paper reconstructs temperature, precipitation, and growing degree-day trends in Ukraine, Moldova, and Romania from a set of 20 pollen cores in order to explicate the regional impact of the 6.0–5.0ka BP rapid climate change interval observed in the GISP2 K+ glacio-chemical sequence. Results are compared against a model of regional demographic development covering the time span of 6000–3000BCE. This study indicates that, while macro-scale trends are discernible in Eastern Europe, climatic instability during the fourth millennium BCE was regionally variable and resultant demographic responses were highly targeted and heterogeneous in nature. A period of cooling ca. 3825–3650calBCE resulted in the fracturing of Eneolithic complexes in Romania and generally spurred adaptation to more mobile systems of settlement and subsistence. However, a contemporaneous alternative response involved large-scale migrations to peripheral regions, including the establishment of the Tripolye giant-settlements in Central Ukraine. The methods used illustrate the need for obtaining more proximate confirmation when applying large-scale climate processes to explanations of local and regional archaeological contexts.

Quantitative reconstruction of paleoclimate in central Japan for the past 158,000 years based on a modern analogue technique of pollen composition

In this study, quantitative climate information for central Japan for the past 158 ka is reconstructed on the basis of pollen composition data of NJ88 core from Lake Nojiri and those of TKN-2004 core from the lacustrine Takano Formation using a modern analogue technique. Reconstructed values at the sites around 36.6°N and 700 m altitude are as follows.In marine isotope stage (MIS) 6, the average annual mean temperature was about 2.1 °C, with a coldest month temperature of −11.8 °C, which suggest very cold climate conditions. The climates of MIS 4 and 2 were similarly cold, and the precipitation was low with ∼1050 mm for mean annual precipitations during these cold periods. In contrast, the annual mean temperatures of MIS 5e and MIS 1, among the warmest periods, averaged about 5.5 °C and 9.1 °C, respectively. The annual mean temperature of MIS 5e was significantly lower than that of the Holocene. We estimate that an intensely cold winter controlled the vegetation, which resulted in the lower temperature reconstruction for MIS 5e. The annual mean temperatures of intermediately warm periods such as MIS 5c and 5a were a slightly high, with averages of 4.4 °C and 5.1 °C, respectively. Annual precipitations increased up to ∼1400 mm on average in these warmer periods. Annual mean temperatures of MIS 5d and 5b were low with averages of about 3.0 °C.Annual mean temperatures reconstructed for MIS 3 fluctuated over short periodicities that correspond to Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles. For example, the annual mean temperature of the interstadial GI-8 (Greenland Interstadial 8), 38–39 cal ka BP (calendar ka before 1950 CE) was about 4.0 °C, and that of the stadial HE 4 (Heinrich event 4) in 42–43 cal ka BP was about 2.6 °C. From 14 to 12 cal ka BP, annual mean temperature increased significantly in a relatively short period, from 1.3 to 9.5 °C, and annual precipitation also increased from 1040 to 1380 mm. A cool event corresponding to the Younger Dryas was identified in this deglaciation process, but its intensity was much weaker than that in the North Atlantic region. The climate in the Holocene (MIS 1) was warm, with an average annual mean temperature of 9.0 °C with wide variation, by a maximum of about 2 °C, which suggests temporal change of the Arctic polar front situated in mid-latitude regions.

Quantitative precipitation estimates for the northeastern Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau over the last 18,000 years

AbstractQuantitative information regarding the long‐term variability of precipitation and vegetation during the period covering both the Late Glacial and the Holocene on the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau (QTP) is scarce. Herein, we provide new and numerical reconstructions for annual mean precipitation (PANN) and vegetation history over the last 18,000 years using high‐resolution pollen data from Lakes Dalianhai and Qinghai on the northeastern QTP. Hitherto, five calibration techniques including weighted averaging, weighted average‐partial least squares regression, modern analogue technique, locally weighted weighted averaging regression, and maximum likelihood were first employed to construct robust inference models and to produce reliable PANN estimates on the QTP. The biomization method was applied for reconstructing the vegetation dynamics. The study area was dominated by steppe and characterized with a highly variable, relatively dry climate at ~18,000–11,000 cal years B.P. PANN increased since the early Holocene, obtained a maximum at ~8000–3000 cal years B.P. with coniferous‐temperate mixed forest as the dominant biome, and thereafter declined to present. The PANN reconstructions are broadly consistent with other proxy‐based paleoclimatic records from the northeastern QTP and the northern region of monsoonal China. The possible mechanisms behind the precipitation changes may be tentatively attributed to the internal feedback processes of higher latitude (e.g., North Atlantic) and lower latitude (e.g., subtropical monsoon) competing climatic regimes, which are primarily modulated by solar energy output as the external driving force. These findings may provide important insights into understanding the future Asian precipitation dynamics under the projected global warming.

Relative pollen productivities and relevant source area of pollen in the forest–steppe ecotone of northern China

Modeling efforts to quantitatively reconstruct vegetation from pollen have never been attempted along the forest–steppe border of China, however such studies are important in interpreting fossil pollen assemblages of vegetation change along this ecotone. In this paper, relative pollen productivity (RPP) and relevant source area of pollen (RSAP) as two important parameters in quantitative vegetation reconstruction using the LRA (Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm approach) model, are estimated from the forest–steppe ecotone north of Shanxi, China, where pollen sampling and vegetation survey were performed at 18 random sample sites. The pollen analysis results show that Artemisia, Asteraceae, Poaceae, Pinus, Picea, Quercus, Betula and Hippophae dominate the pollen assemblages with more than 80% proportion. ERV (Extended R-value) analysis showed that the RSAP is about 600m and that around 50% of the pollen in each sample comes from beyond this distance. RPPPoaceae (pollen productivity relative to Poaceae) is estimated as more than 10 for Pinus and Hippophae and around 5 for Picea and Betula. Estimates for Artemisia (3–4) are substantially lower than those reported from other studies in the steppe biome, and for Quercus (0.5) are substantially lower than those from the forest biome in north-east China or Europe. Four additional samples were then used to test the effectiveness of two different methods for reconstruction of vegetation proportion from pollen assemblages, the Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm (LRA) and the Modern Analogue Technique (MAT) showed that both methods can give generally reasonable results with similarity index more than 0.6, but there is still some discrepancy between the two methods.