Moderate Probabilities Research Articles

Infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus specialization in a multihost salmonid system.

Many pathogens interact and evolve in communities where more than one host species is present, yet our understanding of host–pathogen specialization is mostly informed by laboratory studies with single species. Managing diseases in the wild, however, requires understanding how host–pathogen specialization affects hosts in diverse communities. Juvenile salmonid mortality in hatcheries caused by infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) has important implications for salmonid conservation programs. Here, we evaluate evidence for IHNV specialization on three salmonid hosts and assess how this influences intra‐ and interspecific transmission in hatchery‐reared salmonids. We expect that while more generalist viral lineages should pose an equal risk of infection across host types, viral specialization will increase intraspecific transmission. We used Bayesian models and data from 24 hatcheries in the Columbia River Basin to reconstruct the exposure history of hatcheries with two IHNV lineages, MD and UC, allowing us to estimate the probability of juvenile infection with these lineages in three salmonid host types. Our results show that lineage MD is specialized on steelhead trout and perhaps rainbow trout (both Oncorhynchus mykiss), whereas lineage UC displayed a generalist phenotype across steelhead trout, rainbow trout, and Chinook salmon. Furthermore, our results suggest the presence of specialist–generalist trade‐offs because, while lineage UC had moderate probabilities of infection across host types, lineage MD had a small probability of infection in its nonadapted host type, Chinook salmon. Thus, in addition to quantifying probabilities of infection of socially and economically important salmonid hosts with different IHNV lineages, our results provide insights into the trade‐offs that viral lineages incur in multihost communities. Our results suggest that knowledge of the specialist/generalist strategies of circulating viral lineages could be useful in salmonid conservation programs to control disease.

The influence of genes which responsible for leaf shape and lines height on the economic qualities of Helianthus annuus hybrids

Purpose. To study the influence of the Dw, Fr, sp genes which control the morphological markers of lines on the economically valuable indicators of the first-generation hybrids.Methods. Field experiment, morphological description and biometric measurements, statistical analysis.Results. The analogue lines were crossed by genes responsible for morphological characteristics of the leaf shape sp (spoon-shaped), leaf edge Fr (fringe), stem Dw (dwarf) and the initial selection lines with sterile lines. The cross-bred hybrids were evaluated in the field experiment on the manifestation of marker trait, yield, oil content, weight of 1000 seeds, height, diameter of the basket (head), the number of leaves. Indicators of line hybrids with morphological marker lines were compared with indicators of hybrids with baseline lines without marker features. The recessive allele of the sp gene determines the spoon-like shape of the leaf, with edges bend upward. This sing is not observed in the first-generation hybrids. Fr gene in the dominant state determines the strongly rugged edge of the leaf. In hybrids of the first generation, changes in the edge of the leaf plate are also observed. The third sign - dwarf of sunflower is determined by the Dw gene, which in the dominant homozygous state reduces the height of plants to 90–100 cm. In the heterozygous state, plants also have a decrease in height. Three breeding lines were used to create analogue lines according to these three criteria. There were two parent ‘LVO7V’, ‘ZL678V’ and one maternal ‘L06B’. Six maternal sterile lines were used to cross with analogue lines. Hybrids were studied by yield, oil content, weight of 1000 seeds, plant height, head diameter, number of leaves.Conclusions. A high probability of the negative impact of the dominant allele of the Dw gene (dwarfishness – short stem height) on the hybrids productivity was found. The high probability of a positive effect of the recessive allele of the sp gene (spoon shaped leaf) on the yield, oil content and number of leaves of hybrids with a line carrier of recessive homozygotes has been proved. The moderate and low probabilities of the difference in the level of signs of hybrids with the dominant allele of the Fr gene (fringe of the leaf edge) and hybrids with baseline lines were determined.

Third-party decision-making under risk as a function of prior gains and losses

Humans typically prefer risky options after incurring a financial loss, while generally preferring safer options after a monetary gain. Oftentimes we do not only make decisions for ourselves but also on behalf of others. In the present study we examine how decision-making on behalf of another person can alter risk preference for mixed gambles with moderate probabilities, as a function of prior monetary gains and losses. Furthermore, we test how the extent of accountability for choices and outcome further may impact these effects. To test this, participants performed a series of trials in which they could either gain or lose money depending on a separate, unrelated, task. Immediately following the respective gain or loss, they decided to either play or pass on a mixed gamble that could either double or eliminate their gain or loss. Importantly, participants decided either (1) for themselves, or (2) on behalf of another participant under outcome accountability, or (3) under full accountability (process and outcome). Results revealed increased risk-taking after incurring a loss as compared to a gain for both Self and Other choices. However, this effect was significantly smaller for choices on behalf of others, in particular when accountability was reduced. The reduced impact of gains and losses on risk behavior on behalf of others are discussed in terms of reduced saliency and subjective value for prior gain/loss contexts, and consequently reduced engagement of affective processes.

An efficient reliability method combining adaptive global metamodel and probability density evolution method

Abstract An efficient reliability method, i.e., AGM-PDEM, is presented which combines the adaptive global metamodel (AGM) and the probability density evolution method (PDEM). The global metamodel is firstly constructed using an adaptive sampling technique and employed to represent the relationship between the equivalent extreme value (EEV) of responses and basic random variables of stochastic systems. The EEVs of representative point sets with enlarged size are approximated by the constructed surrogate model. Reliability of the stochastic systems then can be readily obtained by virtue of the PDEM. To demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method in metamodeling response surface and in assessing system reliability, the global metamodeling of three analytical functions with different nonlinear features, and the reliability analysis of an eight-story shear frame with different random parameters related to the performance level are addressed. A comparative study against the direct Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) with the established metamodel is carried out as well. Numerical results demonstrate that the adaptive sampling technique for global metamodeling is more superior by comparison with the one-stage sampling technique. The AGM-PDEM has a better applicability than the AGM-MCS in dealing with the problems of both moderate and small failure probabilities encountered in engineering structures. Furthermore, both the fidelity of global metamodel and the accuracy of the proposed reliability method can be guaranteed by specifying a moderate stopping condition in the adaptive sampling process. Therefore, the proposed AGM-PDEM exhibits a satisfactory accuracy and a high efficiency for the reliability assessment of structural systems in practice.

Pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic analysis as a tool for surveillance of the activity of antimicrobials against Pseudomonas aeruginosa strains isolated in critically ill patients

IntroductionTo evaluate the changes in the susceptibility of Pseudomonas aeruginosa over time (2000–2017) against antimicrobials used in an intensive care unit of a Spanish tertiary hospital, and to compare them with the antimicrobial activity considering theoretical pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) criteria. The influence of the method for handling duplicate isolates to quantify susceptibility rates was also evaluated. MethodsThe susceptibility was studied considering the Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) breakpoints. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to calculate the cumulative fraction of response (CFR). Linear regression analysis was applied to determine the trends in susceptibility and in the CFR. ResultsA significant decrease in the susceptibility to gentamicin and imipenem was observed, and more recently the highest percentages of susceptible strains were found for amikacin, cephalosporins and piperacillin/tazobactam (>80%). The probability of success of an empiric treatment or CFR for most of the evaluated antimicrobials was lower than 70% during the last two-year period. Only meropenem provided high probabilities (>90%) to achieve the PK/PD target. Cephalosporins provided moderate probabilities (>80%) although for ceftazidime, the highest dose (2g/8h) was required. Moreover, a significant decrease in the CFR trend for ciprofloxacin, imipenem and levofloxacin was observed. ConclusionsBoth susceptibility rates and CFR values have to be considered together to optimize the antimicrobial dose regimen for clinical making-decisions. They are complementary tools and, they should be used jointly in surveillance programmes. In fact, susceptibility data are not always useful to detect changes in the CFR. No relevant differences were observed among the methods for handling repeated isolates.

Comorbidity Patterns Among Patients With Opioid Use Disorder and Problem Gambling: ADHD Status Predicts Class Membership

Objective: Psychiatric comorbidities are highly prevalent among individuals affected by substance use disorders and those with non-substance-related addictive disorders such as gambling disorder. More recently, the frequent co-occurrence of substance use disorders and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) has received particular attention. The aim of our study was to identify patterns of psychiatric comorbidity and to examine associations between patient group and ADHD status with class membership. Methods: Participants were patients with opioid use disorder enrolled in opioid maintenance treatment (OMT), either recruited from the community (n = 142; M age = 35.8 years; 38.7% female) or prison (n = 133; M age = 35.7 years; 21.8% female), and patients undergoing treatment for problem gambling (PrG; n = 80; M age = 43.1 years; 20% female). To enable direct comparisons, the following instruments were applied: Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview, Adult ADHD self-report scale, Wender Utah Rating Scale, and European Addiction Severity Index. We used a latent class analysis (LCA) to identify psychiatric comorbidity patterns and a multinomial logistic regression to examine associations between patient group, ADHD status, age, and gender with class membership. Results: The LCA resulted in a three-class solution: (1) a class of individuals with a relatively low probability of current psychiatric comorbidities, except for a high probability of substance use disorders; (2) a class with markedly increased probabilities of current and recurrent psychiatric comorbidities, especially for major depression; and (3) a class with very low probabilities of psychiatric comorbidities, except for moderate probabilities of substance use disorders and antisocial personality disorder. Both OMT patients recruited from the community and those in prison were less likely than PrG patients to be assigned to the most burdened class with respect to psychiatric comorbidity (class 2). Further, both individuals with ADHD in childhood and those with adult ADHD were more likely members of class 2. Conclusions: PrG patients seem to be at an even higher risk for psychiatric comorbidities compared to OMT patients. Raising awareness among practitioners for the high prevalence of psychiatric comorbidities among patients with gambling disorder and individuals with ADHD is crucial to initiate adequate treatment and to improve response.

A Study of Physical Activity Determinants among High-Risk Hypertensive Filipino and Korean Americans.

Physical activity (PA) serves a critical role in maintaining health and preventing chronic diseases, though its influence on high-risk Asian American populations is unclear. The purpose of this study was to determine PA levels among Filipino and Korean Americans at high risk of hypertension and to identify sociodemographic and health-related factors associated with PA levels in these populations. A cross-sectional survey was administered to 137 participants in the Greater Philadelphia Area. Data was collected on PA levels, sociodemographic factors, and health factors. Multinomial logistic regression was conducted to determine predictors associated with low, moderate, and high PA and predictive probabilities were calculated for interaction terms, incorporating ethnicity and blood pressure variables. Overall, 42.33% of participants belonged to the moderately active PA group and 21.90% belonged to the highly active group. In the final multinomial regression model, it was found that having gone to college increased the odds of being in the moderately active PA group (coef. = 1.96, p = 0.034), while having high blood pressure reduced the odds of being in the moderately active PA group (coef. = −2.21, p = 0.022). Lastly, being Korean versus Filipino reduced the odds of being in the highly active category (coef. = −2.89, p = 0.035). Based on predictive probabilities, Koreans and Filipinos with high blood pressure were more likely to belong in the low active PA category (52.31% and 46.33%). These findings highlight the need for culturally relevant PA interventions for promoting and increasing PA levels to prevent and manage hypertension among these populations.

Deep Venous Thrombosis

In a patient with DVT, a clot forms in the large veins of the extremities, typically the leg, which can lead to a pulmonary embolus, a potentially life-threatening medical problem. Risk factors include provoking factors such as recent surgery, acquired factors such as obesity or cardiovascular disease, and genetic factors such as protein C or S deficiency. The Wells DVT score is a clinical scoring system that allows the assessment of the pretest probability of DVT. However, clinical gestalt has been found to be equally accurate. This can then guide the clinical work-up of the patient, with low and moderate pretest probabilities, allowing one to start with D-dimer testing, versus high probability, requiring one to begin with lower extremity US. The current trend in treatment of DVT is the novel oral anticoagulants as they can be given at fixed doses, do not require laboratory monitoring, and have a better safety profile than warfarin. Pregnant patients, those with cancer, as well as many with recurrent DVT are treated with low-molecular-weight heparin. Most patients with DVT may be treated as an outpatient. A small percentage of patients with severe DVT may benefit from catheter-directed thrombolysis. This review contains 1 figures, 2 tables, and 48 references. Key Words: anticoagulants, D-dimer, diagnostic ultrasonography, DVT, low molecular weight heparin, postthrombotic syndrome, unfractionated heparin, warfarin

Deep Venous Thrombosis

In a patient with DVT, a clot forms in the large veins of the extremities, typically the leg, which can lead to a pulmonary embolus, a potentially life-threatening medical problem. Risk factors include provoking factors such as recent surgery, acquired factors such as obesity or cardiovascular disease, and genetic factors such as protein C or S deficiency. The Wells DVT score is a clinical scoring system that allows the assessment of the pretest probability of DVT. However, clinical gestalt has been found to be equally accurate. This can then guide the clinical work-up of the patient, with low and moderate pretest probabilities, allowing one to start with D-dimer testing, versus high probability, requiring one to begin with lower extremity US. The current trend in treatment of DVT is the novel oral anticoagulants as they can be given at fixed doses, do not require laboratory monitoring, and have a better safety profile than warfarin. Pregnant patients, those with cancer, as well as many with recurrent DVT are treated with low-molecular-weight heparin. Most patients with DVT may be treated as an outpatient. A small percentage of patients with severe DVT may benefit from catheter-directed thrombolysis. This review contains 1 figures, 2 tables, and 48 references. Key Words: anticoagulants, D-dimer, diagnostic ultrasonography, DVT, low molecular weight heparin, postthrombotic syndrome, unfractionated heparin, warfarin

Preference Learning and Demand Forecast

Understanding consumer preferences is important for new product management, but is famously challenging in the absence of actual sales data. Stated-preferences data are relatively cheap but unreliable, whereas revealed-preferences data through actual choices are reliable but expensive to obtain prior to product launch. We develop a cost-effective solution. We argue that people do not automatically know their preferences, but can make an effort to acquire such knowledge when given sufficient incentives. The method we develop regulates people's preference-learning incentives using a single parameter, realization probability, meaning the probability with which an individual has to actually purchase the product she says she is willing to buy. We derive a theoretical relationship between realization probability and elicited preferences. This allows us to forecast demand in real purchase settings using inexpensive choice data with small to moderate realization probabilities. Data from a large-scale field experiment support the theory, and demonstrate the predictive validity and cost-effectiveness of the proposed method.

Pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic analysis as a tool for surveillance of the activity of antimicrobials against Pseudomonas aeruginosa strains isolated in critically ill patients

IntroductionTo evaluate the changes in the susceptibility of Pseudomonas aeruginosa over time (2000–2017) against antimicrobials used in an intensive care unit of a Spanish tertiary hospital, and to compare them with the antimicrobial activity considering theoretical pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) criteria. The influence of the method for handling duplicate isolates to quantify susceptibility rates was also evaluated. MethodsThe susceptibility was studied considering the Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) breakpoints. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to calculate the cumulative fraction of response (CFR). Linear regression analysis was applied to determine the trends in susceptibility and in the CFR. ResultsA significant decrease in the susceptibility to gentamicin and imipenem was observed, and more recently the highest percentages of susceptible strains were found for amikacin, cephalosporins and piperacillin/tazobactam (>80%). The probability of success of an empiric treatment or CFR for most of the evaluated antimicrobials was lower than 70% during the last two-year period. Only meropenem provided high probabilities (>90%) to achieve the PK/PD target. Cephalosporins provided moderate probabilities (>80%) although for ceftazidime, the highest dose (2g/8h) was required. Moreover, a significant decrease in the CFR trend for ciprofloxacin, imipenem and levofloxacin was observed. ConclusionsBoth susceptibility rates and CFR values have to be considered together to optimize the antimicrobial dose regimen for clinical making-decisions. They are complementary tools and, they should be used jointly in surveillance programmes. In fact, susceptibility data are not always useful to detect changes in the CFR. No relevant differences were observed among the methods for handling repeated isolates.

The association between 10-year fracture risk by FRAX and osteoporotic fractures with disease activity in patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

As rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is an independent risk factor for osteoporotic fractures, the severity of disease activity may correlate with fracture risk. Our objectives were to determine the prevalence of major osteoporotic and hip fractures in patients with RA and to identify the factors related to their 10-year probabilities. This study enrolled 232 patients with RA, aged 40-90years, who participated in the Siriraj RA Cohort in 2016 and 2017. Demographic data, disease activity scores 28 (DAS28), and health assessment questionnaires (HAQ) were collected. All participants were evaluated for asymptomatic vertebral fractures by thoracolumbar spine radiography. The osteoporotic fracture risks were determined using the fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX). Most subjects were postmenopausal women in their sixth decade; the median disease duration was 12.95years. Forty-six percent of patients had osteoporotic fractures, and most (87%) were vertebral fractures. Eighty-one patients had asymptomatic vertebral compression fractures. Of those, 57%, 25%, and 18% had low, moderate, and high 10-year probabilities of major osteoporotic fractures, respectively, while 51%, 34%, and 15% had low, moderate, and high 10-year probabilities of hip fractures, respectively. Factors significantly associated with the 10-year probabilities of major osteoporotic and hip fractures were disease duration (p 0.017, 0.009), menopause duration (p < 0.001 both), cumulative disease activity (DAS28; p 0.004, 0.029), and cumulative functional disability (HAQ; p < 0.001 both). Moderate to high 10-year probabilities of major osteoporotic and hip fractures are common in RA. Cumulative disease severity is a high risk for osteoporotic fractures.

Financial synergies and systemic risk in the organization of bank affiliates

Abstract We analyze theoretically banks’ choice of organizational structures in branches, subsidiaries or stand-alone banks, in the presence of public bailouts and default costs. These structures are characterized by different arrangements for internal rescue of affiliates against default. The cost of debt and leverage are endogenous. For moderate bailout probabilities, subsidiary structures, wherein the two entities provide mutual internal rescue under limited liability, have the highest group value, but also the highest risk taking as measured by leverage and expected loss. We explore the effect of constraints on leverage and policy implications. The conflict of interests between regulators, who minimize systemic risk, and banks, who maximize their own value, is mitigated when capital requirements are effective.

The relationship between smoking and convivial, intimate and negative coping alcohol consumption in young adults.

To explore the gender-specific associations of smoking with convivial, negative coping and intimate drinking contexts in young adults. Alcohol and cigarettes co-use is common and to be more effective in prevention activities, we need to understand the drinking contexts that facilitate their co-occurrence. Descriptive cross-sectional survey in the context of the LATO study (Lifestyle & Attitudes in a Student Population) in Greece. Of the 1,138 students who provided full data during November-December 2012, those who have smoked ≥1 cigarette/last month were defined as smokers. Based on the "Drinking Context Scale-9", we created low, moderate and high probabilities of drinking in each context and in total. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed. Participants reported higher probabilities to drink, in descending order, in the convivial (31.5%), negative coping (10.4%) and intimate (5.4%) contexts. Adjusted odds ratios for smoking were significantly higher for individuals who reported a moderate (OR=2.15, 95% CI 1.51-3.05) to high (OR=3.64, 95% CI 2.59-5.11) probability of drinking in any context. Moreover, female participants with high probabilities for drinking in convivial and negative coping contexts had higher odds ratios of engaging in smoking (convivial OR=1.87, 95% CI=1.23-2.85; coping OR=2.66, 95% CI=1.39-5.10) whereas this association was noticed only for convivial settings in male participants (OR=2.88, 95% CI=1.91-4.319). For women only, drinking in intimate contexts was protective against smoking (OR=0.32, 95% CI=0.10-0.98). Smoking is differentially related to drinking context based on gender. Prevention interventions targeting smoking and alcohol co-use in late adolescence may be more effective if employing a context and gender-specific approach. Nurses have a critical role in providing motivational interviewing in individuals and organise and execute health-promoting activities in larger groups for modifying their health risk behaviours. The social context should be carefully considered during assessments and prevention interventions.

Association between FGFRs and the susceptibility of digestive and reproductive system cancers in Chinese population

Fibroblast growth factors (FGFs) and their receptors (FGFRs) modulate a wide range of biological functions, especially tumor genesis. The aim of this study was to investigate the possible association of FGFR expression with the susceptibility of digestive system and reproductive system cancers in Chinese population. In total, 343 patients with digestive or reproductive system cancers were enrolled in this study. The expression levels of four highly-conserved FGFRs including FGFR1, FGFR2, FGFR3 and FGFR4 were measured by immunohistochemistry (IHC). The expression levels of FGFRs were compared between carcinoma and para-carcinoma tissues. FGFR1 expression significantly differed between carcinoma and para-carcinoma tissues in colon and gastric cancers. FGFR2 expression significantly differed between carcinoma and para-carcinoma tissues in esophageal cancer. FGFR3 expression was significantly different between carcinoma and para-carcinoma tissues in liver and gastric cancers. FGFR2 showed the highest expression probability in all the selected cancers and FGFR4 showed the lowest expression probability. FGFR1 and FGFR3 showed comparable moderate expression probabilities. Our findings have demonstrated significant differences regarding FGFR expression levels between carcinoma and para-carcinoma cells in digestive or reproductive system cancer patients. The data also implicated that FGFR2 and FGFR4 could serve as two prominent factors closely related to the susceptibility of digestive and reproductive system cancers.

Trends in spatial patterns of heavy metal deposition on national park service lands along the Red Dog Mine haul road, Alaska, 2001-2006.

Spatial patterns of Zn, Pb and Cd deposition in Cape Krusenstern National Monument (CAKR), Alaska, adjacent to the Red Dog Mine haul road, were characterized in 2001 and 2006 using Hylocomium moss tissue as a biomonitor. Elevated concentrations of Cd, Pb, and Zn in moss tissue decreased logarithmically away from the haul road and the marine port. The metals concentrations in the two years were compared using Bayesian posterior predictions on a new sampling grid to which both data sets were fit. Posterior predictions were simulated 200 times both on a coarse grid of 2,357 points and by distance-based strata including subsets of these points. Compared to 2001, Zn and Pb concentrations in 2006 were 31 to 54% lower in the 3 sampling strata closest to the haul road (0–100, 100–2000 and 2000–4000 m). Pb decreased by 40% in the stratum 4,000–5,000 m from the haul road. Cd decreased significantly by 38% immediately adjacent to the road (0–100m), had an 89% probability of a small decrease 100–2000 m from the road, and showed moderate probabilities (56–71%) for increase at greater distances. There was no significant change over time (with probabilities all ≤ 85%) for any of the 3 elements in more distant reference areas (40–60 km). As in 2001, elemental concentrations in 2006 were higher on the north side of the road. Reductions in deposition have followed a large investment in infrastructure to control fugitive dust escapement at the mine and port sites, operational controls, and road dust mitigation. Fugitive dust escapement, while much reduced, is still resulting in elevated concentrations of Zn, Pb and Cd out to 5,000 m from the haul road. Zn and Pb levels were slightly above arctic baseline values in southern CAKR reference areas.

Asymptotically Efficient Importance Sampling for Bootstrap

The Large Deviation Principle is proved for the conditional probabilities of moderate deviations of weighted empirical bootstrap measures with respect to a fixed empirical measure. Using this LDP for the problem of calculation of moderate deviation probabilities of differentiable statistical functionals, it is shown that the importance sampling based on influence function is asymptotically efficient.

Influence of Varying Assessment Parameters on the Diagnostic Accuracy of Magnetic Resonance Imaging in the Local Staging of Prostate Cancer

Introduction: There is a broad variability in the accuracy levels of MRI with regard to the local staging of prostate cancer (PCa). Methods: A prospective analysis was conducted in patients with localized PCa with MRI of the prostate before radical prostatectomy. MRI and pathology findings were independently reviewed and reported based on a standardized map of the prostate with 16 regions of interest (ROIs). Diagnostic accuracy analysis of the MRI was performed using varying prostate-subpart sizes and varying cutoffs for the radiological probability for PCa presence. Results: Seventy four patients were included. Using varying cutoff probabilities and varying sizes of prostate-subparts resulted in a broad range of sensitivity (6-88%) and specificity (38-100%). Lower probabilities of PCa presence and larger prostate-subparts resulted in higher sensitivity but lower specificity and vice versa. Best diagnostic performance was achieved by using prostate sextants and at least moderate probabilities for PCa presence; mean sensitivity and specificity were 38% (95% CI 13-75) and 95% (95% CI 88-98). Conclusion: The use of varying assessment parameters strongly affects the diagnostic accuracy of MRI in the local staging of PCa. Hence, precise and standardized reporting regarding these parameters is important. In our study, using at least moderate probabilities for PCa presence on MRI and prostatic sextants as ROI size was associated with best diagnostic performance.

Detection of stimuli from multi-neuron activity: Empirical study and theoretical implications

We report on detection results obtained in 20 experiments in which the presence of an external auditory stimulus had to be detected from observing electrophysiological multi-unit activity in the brain stem of rats. The performance of the optimal Gaussian-signal-in-Gaussian-noise (model-based) detector is compared to that of the energy detector which is widely used in electrophysiology as well as in many other disciplines with similar signal characteristics. It is shown that the optimal model based detector is indeed superior, but the performance gap in favor of the optimal detector is substantial mainly in very low probabilities of false alarm errors. The performance of the energy detector is close to optimum in moderate and high probabilities of false alarm error. Furthermore, the energy detector is shown to be more resilient to isolated and short, yet intense disturbances. We discuss a conjecture inspired by the model underlying the optimal detector and the empirical results, that the neural tissue itself executes a modified energy detection scheme, and we review experimental results from the literature that allegedly support this conjecture.

Climate Change, Coastal Vulnerability and the Need for Adaptation Alternatives: Planning and Design Examples from Egypt and the USA

Planning and design of coastal protection for high-risk events with low to moderate or uncertain probabilities are a challenging balance of short- and long-term cost vs. protection of lives and infrastructure. The pervasive, complex, and accelerating impacts of climate change on coastal areas, including sea-level rise, storm surge and tidal flooding, require full integration of the latest science into strategic plans and engineering designs. While the impacts of changes occurring are global, local effects are highly variable and often greatly exacerbated by geophysical (land subsidence, faulting), oceanographic (ocean circulation, wind patterns) and anthropogenic factors. Reducing carbon emissions is needed to mitigate global warming, but adaptation can accommodate at least near future change impacts. Adaptation should include alternatives that best match region-specific risk, time frame, environmental conditions, and the desired protection. Optimal alternatives are ones that provide protection, accommodate or mimic natural coastal processes, and include landforms such as barrier islands and wetlands. Plans are often for 50 years, but longer-term planning is recommended since risk from climate change will persist for centuries. This paper presents an assessment of impacts of accelerating climate change on the adequacy of coastal protection strategies and explores design measures needed for an optimum degree of protection and risk reduction. Three coastal areas facing similar challenges are discussed: Abu-Qir Bay, Nile River delta plain, Egypt; Lake Borgne, New Orleans, Louisiana delta plain; and the New York City region.