Moderate Emission Research Articles

Effects of extreme heat events on crop revenues for U.S. corn and soybeans

AbstractExtreme weather events have nuanced implications for crop producers. While they can reduce local yields, widespread production losses often drive price increases. This study presents a panel approach that accounts for the price–yield correlation to assess the impact of such events on crop revenues, focusing on U.S. corn and soybeans. It conducts two key analyses: (1) quantifying the revenue impacts of the historic 1988 and 2012 U.S. heatwaves and (2) examining the implications of climate change on crop revenue variability. The results show that compensatory price increases often substantially offset yield losses, especially when price responsiveness to supply shocks is strong. In particular, U.S. corn in 2012 and soybeans in 1988 saw crop revenues rise by more than 8% compared to normal weather conditions, whereas U.S. corn in 1988 and soybeans in 2012 experienced decreases of no more than 4%. The study highlights the importance of crop‐specific and time‐varying price responsiveness to supply shocks. Furthermore, it demonstrates that if growing season weather during 1997–2019 had exhibited the volatility projected for 2036–2065 under a moderate emissions scenario, revenue variability for corn and soybeans in median U.S. counties would have increased by more than 60%, with more pronounced impacts in regions outside the major Corn Belt. These findings underscore the significant economic risks posed by climate change–induced variability in agricultural revenues.

Assessing the impact of climate change on rainfall-triggered landslides: a case study in California

AbstractLandslides are widespread natural hazards which take a heavy toll on lives, property, and infrastructure each year. In January 2023 and 2024, widespread landslides occurred in California as a result of extreme winter precipitation. Estimating the regional evolution of landslide hazard in a changing climate is essential for adaptation planning and risk mitigation efforts. The complex effects of climate change on landslide hazard, however, are poorly understood. Here, we use climate and landslide observations to develop a novel data-driven approach for landslide susceptibility assessment under historical and future climate conditions. We apply this framework to investigate the evolution of landslide susceptibility in California and its impacts on the roadway system based on downscaled climate projections under moderate and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. On average, the results indicate an increase in landslide susceptibility through 2100 in regions where historical susceptibility is moderate to very high. Although the spatio-temporal variations in landslide susceptibility are sensitive to climate model uncertainties in predicting extreme rainfall, the direst impacts are largely circumvented in lower emission scenarios.

Ultraviolet Photometry and Habitable Zones of over 2700 Planet-hosting Stars

The ongoing discovery of exoplanets has sparked significant interest in finding suitable worlds that could potentially support life. Stellar ultraviolet (UV; 100–3000 Å) radiation may play a crucial role in determining the habitability of their planets. In this paper, we conducted a detailed analysis of the UV photometry of over 2700 host stars with confirmed planets, using observational data from the Galaxy Evolution Explorer and Swift Ultraviolet/Optical Telescope missions. We performed aperture photometry on single-exposure images and provided photometric catalogs that can be used to explore a wide range of scientific questions, such as stellar UV activity and planet habitability. By calculating the circumstellar habitable zone and UV habitable zone, we found that fewer than 100 exoplanets fall within both of these zones, with the majority being gas giants. We also examined stellar activity based on their far-UV (FUV) and near-UV (NUV) emissions. We found the FUV−NUV color more effectively represents stellar activity compared to the RFUV′ and RNUV′ indices. The Sun’s low FUV emission and moderate NUV emission highlight its uniqueness among (solar-like) stars.

Blue and Green Water Scarcity in the McKenzie Creek Watershed of the Great Lakes Basin

ABSTRACTClimate change and extreme weather events affect hydrology and water resources in catchments worldwide. This study analysed Blue Water (BW) and Green Water (GW) scarcity in the McKenzie Creek watershed in Ontario, Canada, and explored how changes in temperature and precipitation may impact water scarcity dynamics. The McKenzie Creek is the main water source for agricultural activities for the Six Nations of the Grand River reserve (the largest Indigenous community in Canada) and other non‐Indigenous communities in the watershed. Data from the water use surveys and streamflow simulations performed using the Coupled Groundwater and Surface‐Water Flow Model (GSFLOW) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5, representing moderate and high greenhouse gas emissions and climate warming, respectively, were used to calculate BW and GW scarcity. Study results showed that BW scarcity may increase to ‘moderate’ levels if water users extract the maximum permitted water withdrawal allocation. This level of scarcity has the potential to cause ecological degradation and water quality issues in the watershed. GW scarcity will steadily increase throughout the 21st century due to climate warming with the western portion of the McKenzie Creek watershed projected to experience slightly higher levels of GW scarcity. This may cause users to withdraw more water resources, thereby decreasing BW available for downstream communities, including the Six Nations of the Grand River. This study provides water resource managers and regional planners with important information about potential challenges facing the watershed due to increased water use and changing climate conditions.

Evaluating and Improving the Connectivity of China's Protected Area Networks for Facilitating Species Range Shifts under Climate Change

Contemporary climate change is causing spatial redistributions of many species, potentially undermining the effectiveness of existing protected areas (PAs). This raises concerns about whether current PAs are connected enough to capture climate-induced range shifts and how to expand PAs to support this ecological process. Hence, we conducted a national-scale assessment of climate connectivity for the terrestrial PAs across mainland China. We found that most PAs are structurally connected to cool ones through low human impact (LHI) areas along temperature gradients. The connected PA networks could enable species to migrate and avoid an average climate warming of 2.9°C under moderate emission scenario. Nevertheless, less than half (46.2%) of the PAs have achieved successful climate connectivity. To facilitate climate-induced range shifts, we identified priority areas for conservation based on their importance in supporting connections between PAs. Our study provides spatially explicit assessments of the connectivity of PA networks for range shifts and emphasizes the necessity to consider climate connectivity in the planning of PAs at regional scales.

Vertical land motion is underestimated in sea-level projections from the Oka estuary, northern Spain

Coastal populations are susceptible to relative sea-level (RSL) rise and accurate local projections are necessary for coastal adaptation. Local RSL rise may deviate from global mean sea-level rise because of processes such as geoid change, glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), and vertical land motion (VLM). Amongst all factors, the VLM is often inadequately estimated. Here, we estimated the VLM for the Oka estuary, northern Spain and compared it to the VLM component of sea-level projections in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) and the Spanish National Climate Change Adaptation Plan (NCCAP). To estimate VLM, we updated Holocene RSL data from the Atlantic coast of Europe and compared it with two 3D GIA models. Both models fit well with RSL data except in the Oka estuary. We derived a VLM rate of − 0.88 ± 0.03 mm/yr for the Oka estuary using the residuals of GIA misfits. Comparable VLM rates of − 0.85 ± 0.14 mm/yr and − 0.80 ± 0.32 mm/yr are estimated based on a nearby Global Navigation Satellite Systems station and differenced altimetry-tide gauge technique, respectively. Incorporating the updated late Holocene estimate of VLM in IPCC AR6 RSL projections under a moderate emissions scenario increased the rate of RSL rise by 15% by 2030, 11% by 2050, and 9% by 2150 compared to the original IPCC AR6 projections, and also increased the magnitude of RSL rise by over 40% by 2035 and 2090 compared with projections from the Spanish NCCAP. Our study demonstrates the importance of accurate VLM estimates for local sea-level projections.

Projected North Equatorial Current/Countercurrent toward an El Niño–Like Condition in the Western Pacific under Moderate and Worst-Case CO2 Emission Scenarios

Abstract Validating the mean state and historical trends of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) and North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC) in 36 phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) models and 32 phase 6 CMIP models with those in ocean reanalysis products, this study extracts the most qualified 17 model outputs to explore the projected changes in NEC and NECC in the western Pacific Ocean under scenarios of moderate- and worst-case CO2 emissions. NEC and NECC are robustly predicted to have an El Niño–like change, in which the NEC (NECC) tends to intensify with a poleward (equatorward) movement, during the twenty-first century under both scenarios. Meanwhile, the Kuroshio and Mindanao Current are projected to become weaker. A change in the meridional gradient of basin-scale wind stress curl in the tropical Pacific Ocean is the major contributor to the centennial changes in NEC and NECC; however, anomalous wind stress curl dipole on the two sides of NEC off the eastern Philippines is the major factor in controlling the western boundary currents. This study not only represents a step forward in understanding the impact of global warming on the western tropical Pacific surface circulation but also serves as a reference for downscaled modeling, which can better resolve regional circulation and western boundary currents, for selecting suitable inputs from a large number of CMIP models. Significance Statement The North Equatorial Current and Countercurrent are important surface currents transporting massive heat and mass zonally across the tropical Pacific Ocean. With verified modeling outputs of phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), this study aims at understanding the 100-yr tendencies of the two currents in the western Pacific Ocean during the twenty-first century. The outcome shows that the North Equatorial Current (Countercurrent) tends to intensify with a poleward (equatorward) movement associated with the changes in the meridional gradient of wind stress curl across the entire tropical Pacific Ocean. The 100-yr tendencies are similar to those during an El Niño event. Meanwhile, Kuroshio and Mindanao Current are projected to be weaker during the twenty-first century due to the anomalous wind stress curl dipole off the Philippines in the western tropical Pacific Ocean. This study provides an understanding about the impact of global warming on the western tropical Pacific surface circulation and helps to select suitable initial conditions, boundary conditions, and forcing from a large number of CMIP models when conducting a downscaling modeling for the western Pacific area.

Comparative Analysis of Common Structural Systems for Pedestrian Bridges in Kuwait

Introduction Pedestrian bridges are crucial urban infrastructure, providing safe passage over roads, railways, and waterways. Different structural systems like trusses, steel girders, and reinforced concrete beams are used, but more research is needed to determine the best design for specific regional contexts. Methods This research paper presents a comparison of various structural systems for pedestrian bridges, with a focus on a practical case study in Kuwait. The study evaluates five common pedestrian bridge designs: steel, concrete, and three truss arrangements. The designs were assessed based on multiple criteria, such as cost, construction time, structural weight, carbon emissions, and vibration performance. Using a decision-making matrix (DMM) and engineering judgment, Truss 3 (X-bracings without verticals) was identified as the optimal design. It features a unique bracing system that enhances its properties. Truss 3 was found to be the lightest design at 561.6 kN, with moderate CO2 emissions of 64.2 tons and a cost of 4288.5 KD per span. Detailed design and safety checks were conducted using ETABS software. The final design was detailed and presented using Autodesk Revit. Results The findings highlight the importance of using integrated frameworks and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to select suitable structural systems that meet technical and regional sustainability goals. Conclusion This research aims to provide a robust solution tailored to the unique conditions of Kuwait, ensuring safety, efficiency, and sustainability for pedestrian bridge infrastructure.

Coastal hardening and what it means for the world’s sandy beaches

Sea level rise is expected to cause chronic shoreline retreat, affecting over 10% of the world’s population in low-elevation coastal zones (LECZ). Sandy beaches supported by man-made structures are more vulnerable to substantial beach area loss due to restricted landward migration, affecting ecosystem services. However, the global extent of ‘hardened’ sandy coastlines at risk of ‘severe beach loss’ has not been comprehensively quantified. Here, using products and geospatial datasets derived from satellite imagery, we find that, 33% of the world’s sandy coastline is currently hardened. Analysis of the results by IPCC AR6 regions show that the most hardened coastal regions are the Bay of Bengal, Western & Central Europe, the Mediterranean, Western North America, and East Asia. Linking coastal hardening information with existing shoreline retreat projections, we find that under SSP5-8.5, up to 26% of the world’s sandy coastline (~52,100 km) is likely to face severe beach loss by the end of the 21st century. Under a moderate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), this projection decreases to 21% (~42,080 km), highlighting the potential mitigation gain. The results also show that the vast majority of projected severe sandy beach losses are in high and upper-middle-income countries, with up to 82% of severe losses under SSP5-8.5 and up to 81% under SSP2-4.5 by the end of the 21st century, relative to the total length of sandy coastline, including both hardened and natural coastlines. The IPCC AR6 regions with the highest projected sandy beach losses include Eastern North America, Northern South America, the Mediterranean, the Bay of Bengal, Western Africa, and South-east Asia.

Water-land-food-human health nexus in bioenergy supply chain optimization under climatic constraints.

This study presents an integrated model that addresses the complex interplay between water, land, food, and human health for the optimal design of a BioEnergy Supply Chain (BESC), with a focus on future climate challenges. The model is designed to balance key objectives such as minimizing economic costs, reducing human health impacts, and optimizing water use. By employing a weighted-sum approach, the model identifies the best land allocation for various crops and the most efficient biofuel production pathways. Climate change impacts are analyzed by downscaling projections from the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HADGEM) for Qazvin Province, Iran, using two climate scenarios: SSP5-8.5 (high emissions) and SSP2-4.5 (moderate emissions). The results indicate that water use for crop cultivation increases significantly under SSP5-8.5, by 14.31% and 132.97%, compared to SSP2-4.5 and a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, respectively. Economic costs under SSP5-8.5 are found to be 2.5 and 4.1 times higher than those under SSP2-4.5 and BAU, while the avoided human health impacts decrease. These results reveal critical trade-offs between financial investment and human health outcomes under different climate scenarios. The optimal bioenergy pathways include bioethanol from corn and sugar beet, biogas from wheat, biohydrogen from corn, and jet fuel from wheat. The study underscores the necessity of integrating climate change constraints into BESC optimization models, as these significantly affect both economic and health outcomes. The findings provide important insights for policymakers, helping them develop strategies that balance multiple objectives and adapt to the impacts of climate change on bioenergy production and resource allocation.

Estimating the environmental Kuznets curve and its influencing factors of CO2 emissions: Insights from development stages and rebound effects

Revealing the heterogeneity in Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) is crucial for tackling environmental challenges while fostering sustainable development. Anchored in the EKC hypothesis and using quantile regression approaches, this study explores the varied effects of socioeconomic factors on CO2 emissions for cities at different development stages in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region from 2000 to 2020. In addition, the impact of rebound effects of technological advancements on CO2 emissions are also explored across cities. We find that an N-shaped relationship exists between GDP per capita and CO2 emissions, supporting the EKC hypothesis in the PRD urban clusters. Urbanization significantly increases CO₂ emissions in cities with low to moderate emissions (e.g., a 1% increase in urbanization leads to a 0.963% rise in emissions in cities at the 25th quantile), while its impact diminishes in high-emission cities (e.g., resulting in a 0.199% reduction in cities at the 95th quantile).Additionally, openness and foreign trade exert a significant inhibitory effect on CO2 emissions in all cities; and a rebound effect is identified in cities with medium and high emission levels (above the 50th percentile) in the PRD region. By analyzing the drivers of CO2 emissions, taking into account development stages and rebound effects, this study highlights the heterogeneity in how different factors impact CO2 emissions across cities at varying stages of development within the PRD urban cluster. These findings emphasize that policymakers must recognize this heterogeneity when formulating emission reduction and development strategies. Tailoring policies to the specific economic, spatial, and industrial dynamics of cities at different stages within urban agglomerations is essential to effectively address the sustainable development.

High vulnerability of the endemic Southern Ocean snail Neobuccinum eatoni (Buccinidae) to critical projected oceanographic changes

Climate change is projected to substantially alter the Southern Ocean’s physical and chemical properties, thereby impacting its marine ecosystems and species, particularly those in Antarctic and sub-Antarctic regions. This study focuses on Neobuccinum eatoni, a polar marine ‘true whelk’ endemic to these regions, utilizing 166 spatially independent occurrence data records to model potential distribution shifts under future climate scenarios. Employing Species Distribution Models (SDMs) on spatially cross-validated occurrences, we achieved high predictive accuracy, identifying "sea water salinity range" at mean bottom depth as the most significant predictor of habitat preferences. Additionally, dissolved iron (minimum), ocean temperature (range), and pH (long-term maximum) emerged as critical factors influencing the species’ modeled distribution. By 2050, future projections under the SSP2-4.5 scenario predict an eastward expansion, particularly in the Antarctic Peninsula, the Scotia Arc and the Weddell Sea, with an expansion in the latter region also predicted under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. However, in both scenarios, a reduction in habitat suitability is expected in certain sectors around the Antarctic continent and the Kerguelen Archipelago. By 2100, under the moderate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), the species is projected to move to deeper areas and lower latitudes, with notable expansions in the Weddell Sea and in the Southern Ocean surrounding the Kerguelen Archipelago. However, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, expansion is projected in the Weddell Sea and reductions in Antarctic and subantarctic regions. This study highlights the critical influence of changing salinity on N. eatoni’s distribution, predicting a significant habitat reduction under high CO2 emissions scenarios (SSP5-8.5). The findings underscore the urgent need for focused research on the vulnerability of endemic marine invertebrates to develop effective conservation strategies in the face of rapid climatic changes.

Simulation and projection of photovoltaic energy potential over a tropical region using CMIP6 models

The study examines the potential impact of climate change on photovoltaic energy (PV) in Nigeria. Solar radiation and temperature datasets from 13 regional climate models (CMIP6) for 2015–2099 were used to evaluate the photovoltaic energy under moderate (SSP245) and high (SSP585) emission scenarios for near-future (2023–2053), mid-future (2054–2084), and far-future (2084–2099) periods. The precision of the models for the simulation of PV energy was validated with MERRA-2 reference data using the compromise programming index (CPI). Models with the lowest CPI were selected for regional PV energy projections. The findings showed varying numbers of increase and decrease projected changes across the four regions under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios for the near, mid and far future timescales. Specifically, in the SSP245 scenario, the model with lowest CPI was the CMCC-CESM2 model, it projected a decrease in PV energy in the Sahel (−2.30), an increase in the Guinea Savannah (+2.80), the Rainforest (+1.20) and the coastal region (+4.80) for the far future period (2085–2099). In the SSP585 scenario, the AWI-CM-1.1-MR model projected a decrease in the Sahel region (−4.60), while the MPI-ESM1-2-LR model projected an increase in the Guinea Savannah region (+1.80), and the ACCESS-CM2 model projected an increase in the Rainforest (+10.20) and Coastal regions (+13.20) for the far-future. All values in the parentheses are measured in watts-hour per square-meters. The projected changes in PV energy revealed the need for a regional-specific approach to the planning and implementation of energy transition mix in Nigeria.

Putting the costs and benefits of carbon capture and storage into perspective: a multi-sector to multi-product analysis

Abstract Carbon dioxide capture, transport, and storage (CCS) is essential in achieving the net-zero target. Despite this increasing recognition, current CCS deployments are far behind targeted ambitions. A key reason is that CCS is often perceived as too expensive. While assessments of the costs of CCS have traditionally looked at impact at the plant level, the present study seeks to understand the costs and environmental benefits that will be passed to consumers via end-products and services. In particular, nine end-products/services (bridge construction, electricity from onshore wind power, electricity from offshore wind power, transport of a container via ship, a magazine, the production and transport of an avocado, a beer can, waste treatment via waste-to-energy, and long-distance air travel) connected to ten potential areas of application for CCS (cement production, iron and steel production, oil and gas production, natural gas processing, refining, ship propulsion engines, pulp and paper production, urea production, waste-to-energy, and direct air capture). The evaluations highlight that significant emission reductions (beyond 50%) could be achieved at marginal costs for end-users in six end-products/services: bridge construction, electricity from onshore wind power, electricity from offshore wind power, transport by ship, magazine, and waste treatment. Moderate emission reductions (between 11 and 37%) could be achieved in two cases at virtually no cost (increase below 1%): beer can and avocado production. Finally, only the case of using direct air capture to compensate for emissions from air travel was found to raise the cost for end-users significantly. Although more research is still needed in this area, this work broadens our understanding of the real cost and benefits of CCS and provides useful insights for decision-makers and society.

Warming Leads to Lower Rice Quality in East Asia

AbstractRice quality, which is intricately connected to market value and human nutrition, is sensitive to weather conditions. However, the relative importance of the different climatic factors is poorly understood, and the impact of climate change on rice quality has been little studied on a large scale. Here, using more than 35 years of rice quality data, we present the first effort to determine the key climate variables driving rice quality in China and Japan. Results show a significant decline in high quality rice rate (HRR, an indicator of rice quality), mainly driven by warm nighttime temperatures when they exceed a critical threshold estimated at 18°C and 12°C in China and Japan, respectively. Climate projections suggest a continuing decreasing trend in HRR under moderate and high emission scenarios by 2100. These findings emphasize the importance of breeding new heat tolerant cultivars to maintain stable rice quality in the future.

VLT/MUSE Detection of Accretion/Ejection Associated with the Close Stellar Companion in the HT Lup System

The accretion/ejection processes in T Tauri stars are fundamental to their physical evolution, while also impacting the properties and evolution of the circumstellar material at a time when planet formation takes place. To date, the characterization of ongoing accretion processes in stellar pairs at 5–50 au scales has been challenging as high-angular resolution spectrographs are required to extract the spectral features of each component. We present the analysis of spectroscopic observations of the tight (160 mas, 25 au) T Tauri system HT Lup A/B, obtained with MUSE at the Very Large Telescope in 2021 March and July. We focus on constraining the accretion/ejection processes and variability of the secondary component HT Lup B by searching for accretion tracers by applying high-resolution spectral differential imaging techniques. We retrieve strong (signal-to-noise ratio > 5) Hα, Hβ, and [O i]λ6300 emission in both epochs. The Hα and Hβ line fluxes showcase high variability, with variations up to 200%–300% between epochs. The fluxes are consistent with accretion rates of 3× 10−9 M ⊙ yr−1 and 8 × 10−10 M ⊙ yr−1 for the first and second epochs, respectively. We attribute the increased accretion activity during the first night to a “burst-like” event, followed by a relaxation period more representative of the common accretion activity of the system. The [O i]λ6300 line profiles remain relatively similar between epochs and suggest ejection rates on the order of 10−9−10−10 M ⊙ yr−1, compatible with moderate disk wind emission. Our results also indicate that the accretion processes of HT Lup B are compatible with Classical T Tauri stars, unlike previous classifications.

The risk of energy hardship increases with extreme heat and cold in Australia

Climate change is shifting the experience of energy hardship. Here we examine the effect of the intensity, frequency, and duration of temperature extremes on energy hardship, and how this risk is shaped by individual, housing and neighbourhood resiliencies across Australia, using nationally representative data (269,500 observations) on energy hardship linked to temperature records between 2005 and 2021. Findings suggest that the risk of energy hardship increases with more intense extreme heat and cold, with greater risks for older individuals, lone-person or single-parent households, and rental tenants. These vulnerabilities can be offset by quality housing and renewable energy installations. Energy hardship risks under moderate and high emissions global warming scenarios are projected to increase by 0.1%−2.6% and 0.6%−3.3% respectively in the long run. Energy hardship will remain a concern despite raising temperatures, especially for colder regions less prepared for heat and populations with individual vulnerabilities and lacking housing and neighbourhood adaptations.

Differentiating local and regional drivers of exceedances of WHO PM2.5 standards with a low-cost sensor network in the greater male’ region (GMR)

Although pollution is visible at certain times in the capital Greater Male’ Region (GMR), Maldives, only limited quantitative measures of the pollution concentrations are available. Hence, this study aims to understand the spatiotemporal patterns of Particulate Matter 2.5 (PM2.5) and its contribution by both local and regional sources. Data was collected using harmonized and calibrated low-cost PM sensors from October 2021 to September 2023 across 8 locations in GMR. Results showed that the annual average PM2.5 concentration in both years surpassed the WHO guideline. Higher levels of PM2.5 were measured in the dry season and the 24-h WHO-recommended level was surpassed in 67% of the days in the dry season. This is the effect of pollutants transported from the subcontinental regions. PM2.5 concentrations in at least 93% of the days in the wet season (Apr–Oct) remained within the daily limit. Similar levels and patterns of PM2.5 concentrations were noticed across all locations, despite higher concentrations and more frequent exceedances were observed in certain locations in GMR. Besides vehicular emission, electricity generation, biomass burning, sea transport and construction activities are the likely local sources of PM2.5. The diurnal trend revealed significant peaks on weekend evenings in some hotspots due to increased outdoor activities. Hence to reduce regional drivers of pollutants, corporations from countries in the region must take action and municipalities need to implement plans to moderate local emissions.

Proportion of birch leaves damaged by insects along the pollution gradient of the Middle Ural copper smelter

The proportion of leaves of downy birch (Betula pubescens Ehrh.) damaged by insects at ten sites of coniferous forest along the pollution gradient of the Middle Ural copper smelter was analyzed. The study was conducted during periods of moderate (2009) and low (2019) emissions in early and late summer. The proportion of damaged leaves was higher in 2019 and increased towards the end of the growing season but was not associated with distance to the smelter and lead concentration in leaves.

Historical exposure to metals in contaminated areas and its impact on cardio- and cerebrovascular health

Environmental pollution is of global concern. In Southeast Sweden, historical glass production has contaminated communities with toxic metals. Long-term residency in these communities and high consumption of local foods may constitute a risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) or stroke.The current study investigates if residency in these contaminated sites and long-term consumption of local foods is associated with self-reported CVD and stroke. In addition, the body burden of the toxic metals arsenic, cadmium, and lead, as well as inflammatory protein markers, were studied for association with CVD and stroke.From an existing questionnaire cohort and biomonitoring sub cohort (n = 2290/882) of people living in the contaminated areas, self-reported CVD cases (n = 366/166) and stroke cases (n = 78/25) were identified. Individuals were grouped based on their residency within a 2 km radius of glassworks with historical high, moderate, or low air-borne lead emissions. Body burden of arsenic, cadmium, and lead was analyzed using ICP-MS. Inflammatory markers were investigated using electrochemiluminescence.Long-term residency near glassworks with historically high levels of lead emissions, and high consumption of local foods, were associated with CVD. The risk was increasing for each year of residency in high emission areas. Increased body burden of arsenic in blood, and lead in urine, were associated with stroke. Five and two inflammatory markers, respectively, were elevated in CVD and stroke cases after adjusting for confounders.An increased risk for CVD was found in areas with historically high emissions of lead but possibly also other toxic metals. Interestingly, there was an indication of a dose-response relationship with increasing risk for CVD per year of residency time. Inhalation and consumption of local food may constitute major pathways for this association. The study shows that long-term exposure to toxic metals in these contaminated areas is associated with CVD and that there is a need to limit exposure in the general population.