Moderate Dependence Research Articles

Energy Security in the Context of Geopolitical Instability

Problem setting. Energy is the main resource, and therefore acts as an object of strategic interest and policy. There are many uncertainties in modern energy governance, as it is influenced by many political positions that have different approaches to how best to achieve the desired future and avoid undesirable developments in the energy market. The energy transition should be recognised as one of the main pressures that increasingly complicate and restructure energy supply pathways. The shifts it generates are not only purely technical, but also social, conceptual and political. Obviously, energy supply is in some way linked to national identity, the position a state takes in international relations, and technological development. However, as energy markets and resource supply chains are becoming increasingly global, national approaches to energy security (security of supply) are responding to international developments, in particular the Russian aggression against Ukraine, to varying degrees. Аnalysis of resent researches and publications. In the scientific literature, energy security, as well as energy sovereignty, are defined differently, since there is no clear consensus among researchers on these phenomena, but there are some dominant approaches. Over the past decade, domestic authors have devoted a lot of attention to the study of the conflict of ensuring energy security of Ukraine in the context of the need to make geopolitical choices. However, the problem of ensuring energy security in martial law and the post-war period is only being raised in scientific research, which determines its relevance. The target of the research is to determine the priority directions of energy policy to improve energy security based on the analysis of the problems of functioning of national energy security systems, as well as current threats to vital national interests in this area. Article’s main body. The issue of energy security is one of the cornerstones of the energy policy of modern states. The Russian-Ukrainian conflicts that began in 2006, in the phases of their greatest aggravation (2014 and 2022), significantly affect gas supplies, which have a very negative impact on the functioning of the EU and impede the implementation of the course of the global energy transition to a low-carbon economy. The concept of energy security has been studied by various authors and, although there is no consensus on its content, it is important for both individual states and regions, in particular Europe. An expanded concept of energy security based on three aspects should be considered optimal: sovereignty, reliability and sustainability. Conclusions and prospects for the development. An indicator of the effectiveness and balance of the national energy strategy is the moderate dependence of the state on imports of foreign energy resources. From the point of view of economic security, there is a need to build a balanced diversified structure of energy imports to avoid dependence (dictate) on individual exporting countries. The imbalance of foreign economic strategy in the energy sector is one of the reasons for the acute energy crisis in most European countries. The energy-related causes of the crisis are the inability of most states to significantly reduce energy consumption and increase the innovative component of technological renewal of the fuel and economic complex. Prevention of such crises requires a transition from the traditional paradigm of ensuring economic growth through the import of cheap energy to the strategy of energy saving and increasing the use of renewable energy sources, which is in line with the principles of sustainable development.

Mortalidad al año y factores asociados en pacientes llevados a cirugía por fractura de cadera

IntroductionHip fractures are very common injuries in elderly patients and are associated with increased mortality. ObjectiveTo identify the factors associated with mortality in patients after one year of being operated for hip fracture in an Orthogeriatric Program. MethodsWe design an observational analytical study in subjects older than 65 years admitted to the Hospital Universitario San Ignacio for hip fracture who were treated in the Orthogeriatrics Program. Telephone follow-up was performed one year after admission. Data were analyzed using a univariate logistic regression model and a multivariate logistic regression model was applied to control the effect of the other variables. ResultsMortality was 17.82%, functional impairment was 50.91%, and institutionalization was 13.9%. The factors associated with mortality were moderate dependence (OR=3.56, 95% CI=1.17–10.84, p=0.025), malnutrition (OR=3.42, 95% CI=1.06–11.04, p=0.039), in-hospital complications (OR=2.80, 95% CI=1.11–7.04, p=0.028), and older age (OR=1.09, 95% CI=1.03–1.15, p=0.002). The factor associated with functional impairment was a greater dependence at admission (OR=2.05, 95% CI=1.02–4.10, p=0.041), and with institutionalization was a lower Barthel index score at admission (OR=0.96, 95% CI=0.94–0.98, p=0.001). ConclusionsOur results shows that the factors associated with mortality one year after hip fracture surgery were: moderate dependence, malnutrition, in-hospital complications and advanced age. Having previous functional dependence is directly related to greater functional loss and institutionalization.

Nicotine Dependence among Smokers: A Community Based Study

Nicotine dependence is a challenging health problem present among smokers as it involves a compulsive use of a substance in spite of its known harmful effects. Hence, A community based cross-sectional study was conducted for a period of eight months from November 2020 to June 2021 in the selected smoking population of Raichur district. Data was collected using a pre structured questionnaire of the participants for age, gender, and socio- economic data. Informed consent was obtained from participants before study. Direct interview was conducted with patients using a questionnaire which contains three parts. Patient’s Nicotine dependence was assessed using scores obtained from each scale. Among 150 participants 142 (94.67%) patients were male and 8 (5.33%) patients were female. Participants under the age group of 41-60 years were more i.e. 51 (34%). It was observed that most of them were married. When taking account of education of the participants 55 (36.67%) were graduates, 34 (22.67%) were secondary educated and only 28 (18.67%) participants were illiterate. Most of the participants had occupations such as business 18%, agriculture 28%, employees 36.67% and only 16.67% were not having occupation. In the FTDN score 78 (52%) participants were having moderate nicotine dependence as in HIS dependence score shows more number of low Nicotine dependence i.e. 74 (49.33%). This study showed that most of the participants had low or moderate nicotine dependence. Hence it is needed to be continuously evaluated in order to reduce complications for major disease, premature death and improve the quality of life of the population.
 Keywords: Tobacco smoking, Nicotine dependence, FTND, HSI.

Covariables of Soil-Forming Factors and Their Influence on pH Distribution and Spatial Variability

The objectives of this study were to identify and rank the covariables of soil-forming factors that affect the distribution and spatial variability of pH in an agricultural area and to obtain a predictive map of soil pH. Samples of topsoil were obtained from different sites and taken to the laboratory, where they were prepared to determine the pH, organic matter, and percentages of particle size. In addition, the values of environmental covariables that affect pH were obtained. A database of the coordinates, laboratory results, and values of the covariables was constructed. Principal component analysis of the covariables was performed, and an analysis of the pH spatial structure was conducted and interpolated to obtain a predictive map of pH. Of the soil physical characteristics, the covariables clay and sand had a greater influence on the spatial behavior of pH with respect to the rest of the covariables of soil-forming factors, while human activity acted as a catalyst of the acidification process. Soil pH exhibited autocorrelation and moderate spatial dependence (66.7%) and was thus spatially predictable. The pH prediction map was accurate (RMSE = 0.158 and MEB = 0.020).

Identifying the barriers of smoking cessation and predictors of nicotine dependence among adult Malaysian smokers: A cross-sectional study.

Proper understanding of the prevalence and determinants of nicotine dependence is crucial for developing and implementing effective tobacco control interventions. The aim of the study was to identify the intrinsic and extrinsic barriers to smoking cessation, and to assess the association between nicotine dependence with demographic variables in Malaysia. A cross-sectional survey based on the Challenges to Stopping Smoking Scale (CSS-21) and Fagerström test for nicotine dependence (FTND) was performed on smoking Malaysian citizens aged ≥18 years, from February to June 2021. A total of 1026 parents responded to the survey. As for the smoking dependence based on FTND, 39.1% suffered low-moderate dependence, while about 33.6% suffered moderate dependence. Only 1.8% suffered high dependence. Considering the barriers of quitting smoking based on CSS-21, the mean score of the intrinsic barriers domain was 5.7 ± 2.9, and for the extrinsic domain was 7.4 ± 4.0. The most common barrier reported in the intrinsic domain was the easy availability of cigarettes (69.8%), followed by experiencing withdrawal symptoms (68.5%). On the other hand, the most common barrier reported in the extrinsic domain was the belief in the capability of stopping smoking in the future (72.8%), followed by the fear of having side effects after stopping smoking (63.2%). Gender, race, education level, occupation, marital status, place of residence, and monthly income were also significantly associated with the FTND nicotine dependence category (all p<0.05). Pearson correlation analysis reported a positive association between intrinsic score (r=0.38), extrinsic score (r=0.43) and FTND score (all p<0.001). Barriers to stopping smoking should be taken into consideration in initiatives to decrease smoking-related mortality. Vulnerable populations that are susceptible to high nicotine dependence should be given particular attention.

Comparison of Random Forest and Kriging Models for Soil Organic Carbon Mapping in the Himalayan Region of Kashmir

The knowledge about the spatial distribution of soil organic carbon stock (SOCS) helps in sustainable land-use management and ecosystem functioning. No such study has been attempted in the complex topography and land use of Himalayas, which is associated with great spatial heterogeneity and uncertainties. Therefore, in this study digital soil mapping (DSM) was used to predict and evaluate the spatial distribution of SOCS using advanced geostatistical methods and a machine learning algorithm in the Himalayan region of Jammu and Kashmir, India. Eighty-three soil samples were collected across different land uses. Auxiliary variables (spectral indices and topographic parameters) derived from satellite data were used as predictors. Geostatistical methods—ordinary kriging (OK) and regression kriging (RK)—and a machine learning method—random forest (RF)—were used for assessing the spatial distribution and variability of SOCS with inter-comparison of models for their prediction performance. The best fit model validation criteria used were coefficient of determination (R2) and root mean square error (RMSE) with resulting maps validated by cross-validation. The SOCS concentration varied from 1.12 Mg/ha to 70.60 Mg/ha. The semivariogram analysis of OK and RK indicated moderate spatial dependence. RF (RMSE = 8.21) performed better than OK (RMSE = 15.60) and RK (RMSE = 17.73) while OK performed better than RK. Therefore, it may be concluded that RF provides better estimation and spatial variability of SOCS; however, further selection and choice of auxiliary variables and higher soil sampling density could improve the accuracy of RK prediction.

Assessment of the spatial variability of selected soil chemical properties using geostatistical analysis in the north-western highlands of Ethiopia

ABSTRACT The aim of this research was to evaluate the status of selected soil chemical properties and to explore their spatial variability in various agroecosystems (AEs) of Choke Mountain, northwestern highlands of Ethiopia. A total of 74 geo-referenced composite surface (0-30 cm) soil samples were collected from representative farm lands. Soil chemical properties were analyzed following standard procedures. In addition, semi-variogram model was applied to estimate the spatial variability of soil properties. The results showed that soil chemical properties are below their threshold values in all agroecosystems and soil groups. The value of soil pH ranged from 4.3 to 6.8; Exchangeable acidity ranged from 0.124 to 0.180 cmol (+) kg−1; EC ranged from 0.02 to 0.19 dS m−1; OC ranged from 0.7 to 3.8%; TN ranged from 0.11 to 0.27%; Exchangeable potassium from 0.29 to 2.0 cmol (+) kg−1and CEC from 22 to 56 cmol (+)kg−1. The results also revealed that soil pH, exchangeable acidity, electrical conductivity, and exchangeable potassium showed strong spatial dependence whereas SOC and TN had moderate spatial dependence. The results indicated that soil quality is deteriorating. Hence, crop, soil and site-specific soil management strategies, primarily focusing on improving the content of SOM and addressing the problems of soil acidity are suggested to improve the soil conditions.

319 CAN INDEX BARTHEL SCORE AT EMERGENCY DEPARTMENT PRESENTATION PREDICT ADVERSE OUTCOMES AMONG OLDER ADULTS AT 30 DAYS AND 6 MONTHS?

Abstract Background Frailty is acknowledged as a significant syndrome particularly in the older population. Monitoring frailty in late life aetiology and recognising the value of frailty as a marker of risk for adverse health outcomes is vital and ensures the identification of opportunities for intervention with this cohort in clinical practice. The aim of this prospective cohort study is to examine if an index Barthel Score at Emergency Department presentation predicts adverse outcomes among older adults at 30 days and 6 months. Methods Six-hundred and fifty older adults (≥65 years) attending a university model 4 hospital ED were recruited. Baseline evaluation included the Barthel Index. Adverse outcomes (hospital readmission or death) were recorded by a research nurse at 30 days and 6 months, blinded to Barthel score. Descriptive statistics were used to profile the population and report the incidence of adverse outcomes. Results At 30 days, 61 older adults had either being admitted to hospital (n=28) or died (n=33) and at 180 days a further 72 had been admitted (n=43) or died (n=29). A total of 29% (n=189) of the population had a Barthel score of ≤15 indicating moderate dependency. Of this cohort, 70% had an adverse outcome-readmitted or died within 180 days. Conclusion It may be worth looking at introducing the Barthel Index as a routine measure of activity for older adults presenting to the ED. This tool demonstrates an increased risk of adverse outcomes among older adults who present with moderate dependency. Early intervention either in the hospital or community setting with this ‘at risk’ cohort may serve to reduce adverse outcomes among this group.

Contamination and Health Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals in Soil and Ditch Sediments in Long-Term Mine Wastes Area.

The ecological and health risks posed by wastes discharged from mining areas to the environment and human health has aroused concern. 114 soil samples were collected from nine areas of long-term mine waste land in northwestern Yunnan to assess the pollution characteristics, ecological and health risks of heavy metals. The result revealed that the geo-accumulation indexes were Cd (4.00) > Pb (3.18) > Zn (1.87) > Cu (0.25). Semi-variance analysis revealed that Cd and Cu showed moderate spatial dependency, whereas Pb and Zn showed strong spatial dependency. Cd posed an extreme potential ecological risk. Slopes and ditches were extreme potential ecological risk areas. Non-carcinogenic risk to children from Pb and Carcinogenic risk to adult and children from Cd was non-negligible and direct ingestion was the major source. This study provided a scientific basis for policymakers in management and exposure reduction.

Headaches and Dizziness as Disabling, Persistent Symptoms in Patients with Long COVID-A National Multicentre Study.

Background: Currently, about 15% of coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) patients are affected by Long COVID worldwide; however, this condition has not yet been sufficiently studied. The aim of this study was to identify the impact of symptom persistence as well as clinical and socio-demographic variables in a cohort of people with Long COVID. Methods: We conducted a descriptive cross-sectional study of a sample of adult patients from different Spanish regions presenting with Long COVID. Data collection was conducted between April and July 2021. Functional status and dependency were assessed. Results: A multivariate linear regression was performed, and the model was statistically significant (F (7; 114) = 8.79; p < 0.001), according to the overall ALDQ score. The variables with a statistically significant effect on the degree of dependence were age (p = 0.014), time since diagnosis (p = 0.02), headaches (p = 0.031), and dizziness (p = 0.039). Functional status post-COVID showed a positive and significant relationship with the percentage of dependence (p < 0.001). Conclusions: People affected by Long COVID showed moderate dependency status and limitations in functionality. Those with neurological symptoms, such as dizziness and headaches, as well as older age, showed a higher degree of dependency. Improvements in dependency status occurred with increasing time since diagnosis.

Evaluating the Relationship Between the Internet Addiction and Academic Performance of Medical and Pharmacy Students

Background: The internet is essential for social interaction, information acquisition, and entertainment. However, indiscriminate use of the internet by individuals, especially students, has harmed their social and psychological well-being as well as their education. Objectives: This study aimed to evaluate the relationship between internet addiction and academic performance of medical and pharmacy students of Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Iran, in 2019 - 2020. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted on 149 medical and pharmacy students, who were selected by convenience sampling method. The samples were examined using two questionnaires, including the Internet Addiction Test (IAT) and Educational Performance Test (EPT). The collected data were analyzed using Pearson correlation and regression analysis. Results: There was a significant positive correlation between the IAT and some subscales of the EPT. In addition, more than 81.20% of the sample had mild (51.00%), moderate (29.53%), and severe (0.67%) dependence on the internet. Conclusions: According to the results, the internet addiction negatively affected students’ academic performance. Failure to take critical steps to control internet addiction may significantly affect the future.

Genetic variations in the bitter taste receptor gene TAS2R38 are related to cigarette smoking behavior in Han Chinese smokers.

Smoking behavior is influenced by multiple genes, including the bitter taste gene TAS2R38. It has been reported that the correlation between TAS2R38 and smoking behavior has ethnicity-based differences. However, the TAS2R38 status in Chinese smokers is still unclear. This study aims to investigate the possible relationship between genetic variations in TAS2R38 (A49P, V262A and I296V) and smoking behaviors in the Han Chinese population. The haplotype analyses were performed and smoking behavior questionnaire was completed by 1271 individuals. Genetic association analyses for smoking behavior were analyzed using chi-square test. Further, for investigating the molecular mechanism of TAS2R38 variants effect on smoking behavior, we conducted TAS2R38-PAV and TAS2R38-AVI expression plasmids and tested the cellular calcium assay by cigarette smoke compounds stimulus in HEK293. Significant associations of genetic variants within TAS2R38 were identified with smoking behavior. We found a higher PAV/PAV frequency than AVI/AVI in moderate and high nicotine dependence (FTND ≥ 4; X2 = 4.611, 1 df, p = 0.032) and strong cigarette smoke flavor intensity preference (X2 = 4.5383, 1 df, p = 0.033) in participants. Furthermore, in the in vitro cellular calcium assay, total particle matter (TPM), N-formylnornicotine and cotinine, existing in cigarette smoke, activated TAS2R38-PAV but not TAS2R38-AVI-transfected cells. Our data highlights that genetic variations in TAS2R38 are related to smoking behavior, especially nicotine dependence and cigarette smoke flavor intensity preference. Our findings may encourage further consideration of the taste process to identify individuals susceptible to nicotine dependence, particularly Han Chinese smokers.

Hydration kinetics of oil well cement in the temperature range between 5 and 30°C

Modeling the hydration kinetics of oil well cement as a function of temperature is critical for offshore cementing projects related to natural gas hydrates. During this study, the heat release of oil well cement hydration in the temperature range between 5 and 30°C was monitored by isothermal calorimetry. The influence of the source of cement, water-to-cement (w/c) ratio, and CaCl2 on hydration kinetics was evaluated in great detail. Results indicated the temperature effect on cement hydration kinetics can be modeled by a scale factor derived from the apparent activation energy (Ea) of the cement reaction. Ea showed moderate dependence on the cement source and relatively little dependence on the w/c ratio and CaCl2 addition. By combining with previous experimental data, a function correlating Ea and temperature in a wide temperature range (5–87°C) was obtained.

Daily output measures of Emergency Department in association with seasonality and day of the week: A retrospective cohort observational study.

To evaluate the daily output measures of the emergency department (ED) in association with seasonality and the day of the week. A retrospective cohort of ED visits to tertiary medical centers between 2016 and 2020. The research unit was each day during the study period. The independent variables were season and day of the week. The dependent variables were ED visits, admission and dropout rates, and duration of ED discharge. The comparison of means was evaluated using ANOVA. Statistical significance was set at P < .05. There were 1826 days, 792 thousand visits, 58% were female. Admission rate 28%, duration to discharge 3.8 h, dropout rate 2%. The average daily visits by season ranged from 101% of the overall average in autumn to 97% in spring. Average daily visits by day of the week were significantly different, with the highest on Sunday (Israel's first working day of the week), 124% of the overall daily average, and the lowest on Saturday (weekly day off) with 70%. Saturdays had the highest admission rate of 30% and 28% of the overall rate. There was a moderate dependency between the ED duration and discharge, with a dropout rate of r2 = 0.19. The average daily visits were not affected by season but differed considerably by day of the week. Admission rates varied slightly by season but were similar by day of the week apart from Saturdays. This may be attributable to the case mix on Saturdays or less restriction to admit when the number of visits is low. We recommended each Emergency Department to evaluate its daily output measures dependency with seasonality and day of the week for operational optimization.

Influence of spatial soil variability on productivity and physiological quality of soybean seeds

Seed production fields present spatial and temporal variability in the physical and chemical characteristics of the soil, thus influencing the yield and quality of the produced seeds. The objective of this study was to characterize the spatial variability in soil attributes providing physiological quality and productivity in soybean seeds in two commercial production fields, aiming to define areas of agronomic management. The experiment was carried out in the 2014/15 and 2015/16 crop seasons in a 100×100 m grid. Soil sampling was performed at a depth of 0-200 mm with a 75×75 m grid. The soybean samples were collected at the end of the 2014/15 crop season. Therefore, soil analysis was determined only in the 2014/15 crop season. The plants' agronomic characteristics and the productivity and physiological quality of produced seeds were determined for both crop seasons. Thus, it was concluded that the study site presented spatial variability in soil characteristics, phosphorus content, organic matter, cation exchange capacity, sand, and clay content, and the agronomic characteristics of soybean plants cv. BMX Desafio RR, including plant height, number of nodes per plant, number of pods with three seeds, number of pods with seeds, number of seeds per plant, seed weight per plant, seed weight per linear meter, productivity, and germination. Seed productivity showed a strong spatial dependence, while germination showed a moderate spatial dependence. Three management zones were determined according to the spatial distribution of the results obtained.

Characterization of Spatial Variability of Micro Nutrients in Soils: Classical Vs. Geo-Statistical Approach

ABSTRACT The spatial variability characterization of micronutrients is needed for agricultural quality produce and environmental safety. However, study on this aspect is weakly implicit. In present study, Global Positioning System (GPS)-based 283 surface soil samples were collected and analyzed for pH, electrical conductivity (EC), organic carbon (OC), and micronutrients. Classical results revealed that soils are slightly acidic pH, safe in EC, low to medium in OC, and non-calcareous. OC was in order of Typic Haplustalfs-Chromic Haplusterts (S8)>Vertic Ustochrepts-Chromic Haplusterts (S3)>Typic Haplustalfs-Typic Haplustalfs (S9)>Typic Haplustalfs-Typic Ustipsammarts (S7)>Typic Haplusterts-Typic Ustorthents (S6)>Vertic Ustochrepts -Chromic Haplusterts (S5)> Lithic Ustochrepts -Typic Haplusterts (S4)>Typic Haplusterts -Vertic Ustochrepts(S2)>Typic Haplusterts-Typic Haplusterts (S1). In soils, zinc (Zn) and hot water-soluble boron (HWS-B) in order of S4>S5>S7>S9>S3>S2>S8>S1>S6 and S1>S2>S3>S4>S5>S9>S6>S7>S8, respectively. Overall, about 54.06 and 9.89% soil samples to be deficient in Zn and HWS-B in study area, respectively. Geo-statistical results showed that the exponential model was best-fitted for pH, calcium carbonate (CaCO3), OC, Zn and HWS-B and spherical model for EC and iron (Fe). However, the circular model was fitted for copper (Cu) and Manganese (Mn). The pH, EC, OC Zn, Cu, and Fe fall between 26 and 71%, which exhibit moderate spatial dependency. However, CaCO3 and Mn show 81 and 76% Nugget/sill ratios, respectively. Variability maps also showed the prediction of micronutrients using geo-statistical method better than classical methods.

ВЛИЯНИЕ МЕЖКУСТНОГО РАССТОЯНИЯ И НАГРУЗКИ КУСТОВ ВИНОГРАДА РИСЛИНГ РЕЙНСКИЙ ПОБЕГАМИ НА ПРОДУКТИВНОСТЬ И КАЧЕСТВО ВИНА

The article considers the issue of the influence of anthropogenic factors – the distance be-tween bushes and the load of bushes with shoots – on the productivity and quality of the Riesling Rhenish variety in the conditions of the Black Sea agroecological zone of viti-culture. The agrobiological and qualitative in-dicators of the Riesling Rhenish variety ob-tained in the field experiment of 2019‒2021 are analyzed – the number of bunches, their weight, yield from the bush, yield capacity, mass concentration of sugars, mass concentra-tion of titrated acids, wine tasting evaluation. The correlation analysis revealed a significant moderate connection between the mass of the bunch and the load of bushes with shoots. A significant moderate direct dependence of the yield capacity of the variety on the load of shoots is observed. The mass concentration of sugars is in direct average association with the average mass of the bunch and in the inverse average association with the mass concentra-tion of titrated acids. The tasting assessment is in a significant direct moderate dependence on the average mass of the bunch, yield ca-pacity and the mass concentration of sugars. Based on the conducted research, in order to obtain high-quality wines, it is proposed to use a 3×1.5 m planting scheme and a load of 50 thousand shoots per hectare for the Ries-ling Rhenish variety in the conditions of the Black Sea agroecological zone.

Market integration and volatility spillover across major East Asian stock and Bitcoin markets: an empirical assessment

PurposeThis paper aims to provide new perspectives on the integration of East Asian stock markets and the dynamic volatility transmission to the Bitcoin market utilising daily data from 2014 to 2020.Design/methodology/approachThe authors undertake comprehensive analyses of the dependency dynamics, systemic risk and volatility spillover between major East Asian stock and Bitcoin markets. The authors employ a vine-copula-CoVaR framework and a VAR-BEKK-GARCH method with a Wald test.Findings(a) With exception of KS11 and N225; HSI and SSE; HSI and KS11, which have moderate dependence, dependencies among other markets are low. In terms of tail risk, the upper tail risk is more significant in capturing strong common variation. (b) Two-way and asymmetric risk spillover effects exist in all markets. The Hong Kong and Japanese stock markets have significant risk spillovers to other markets, and quite notably, the Chinese stock market is the largest recipient of systemic risk. However, the authors observe a more significant risk spillover from the Chinese stock market to the Bitcoin market. (c) The VAR-BEKK-GARCH results confirm that the Korean market is a significant emitter of volatility spillovers. The Bitcoin market does provide diversification benefits. Interestingly, the Chinese stock market has an intriguing relationship with Bitcoin. (d) An increase in spillovers in East Asia boosts spillovers to Bitcoin, but there is no intuitive effect of Bitcoin spillovers on East Asian spillovers.Originality/valueFor the first time, the authors examine the dynamic linkage between Bitcoin and the major East Asian stock markets.

Copula-based CUSUM charts for monitoring infectious disease using Markovian Poisson processes

The manuscript addresses the copula-based CUSUM charting scheme to monitor infectious disease. To facilitate the disease surveillance, the Poisson distribution is often used to model the number of diseases counts while the Markov process is used to model the serial correlation within sequential observations. In literature, the first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) process and the first-order integer autoregressive (INAR(1)) process have been used to model continuous observations and Poisson-distributed counts respectively when there exists the Markovian structure between two adjacent observations. However, both of them only describe the conditional linear correlation between adjacent observations. In this paper, the copula model is employed to fit board ranges of correlation structures in the Markovian Poisson processes especially when the conditional correlation between two adjacent Poisson observations is nonlinear. Further, a CUSUM chart based on the log-likelihood ratio is developed to monitor the Poisson processes. The proposed chart performs better in detecting Poisson counts when comparing with existing control charts, and the proposed CUSUM chart performs even better under moderate and strong dependence. A real case study of the counts COVID-19 cases in China is adopted to investigated the effectiveness of our proposed chart. Therefore, it supplies a new method for monitoring the potential changes of the disease infection.

Field scale variability in soil properties and silage corn yield

Field scale spatial variability of soil properties, crop quality parameters and yield are needed to evaluate the efficiency of management practices in crop production. The purpose of this study was to determine the magnitude of field variability in soil properties, silage yield of corn (Zea mays L.) varieties, and to characterize their spatial structures, and map the stated attributes. The experiment was conducted in an alluvial flood plain of lower Kazova watershed in Tokat province of Turkey. Several physical and chemical soil properties and silage corn yield were determined. Coefficient of variation (CV%) varied from 1.0% (pH) to 38.1% (P2O5) in herbicide not applied plots and from 0.9% (pH) to exchangeable Na (55.1%) in herbicide applied plots. Calcium carbonate, organic matter and clay displayed well defined spatial structure. Sand, pH and electrical conductivity (EC) showed moderate spatial dependency. However, silt, moisture content, bulk density, plant available phosphorus and potassium had weak spatial structure. Silage corn yield distribution map successfully distinguished the three corn hybrids planted. The difference in vegetation period among three corn hybrids was effective in distinguishing the location of hybrids within the field. However, the variability in each of the hybrids blocks was assumed to occur due to the difference in short range soil properties. The longest range values were obtained for silage corn yield at both herbicide applied and herbicide unapplied plots.