Moderate Climate Research Articles

How will climate change and forest harvesting influence the habitat quality of two culturally salient species?

Boreal landscapes face increasing disturbances which can affect cultural keystone species, i.e. culturally salient species that shape in a major way the cultural identity of a people. Given their importance, the fate of such species should be assessed to be able to act to ensure their perennity. We assessed how climate change and forest harvesting will affect the habitat quality of Rhododendron groenlandicum and Vaccinium angustifolium, two cultural keystone species for many Indigenous peoples in eastern Canada. We used the forest landscape model LANDIS-II in combination with species distribution models to simulate the habitat quality of these two species on the territories of three Indigenous communities according to different climate change and forest harvesting scenarios. Climate-sensitive parameters included wildfire regimes as well as tree growth. Moderate climate change scenarios were associated with an increased proportion of R. groenlandicum and V. angustifolium in the landscape, the latter species also responding positively to severe climate change scenarios. Harvesting had a minimal effect, but slightly decreased the probability of presence of both species where it occurred. According to the modeling results, neither species is at risk under moderate climate change scenarios. However, under severe climate change, R. groenlandicum could decline as the proportion of deciduous trees would increase in the landscape. Climate change mitigation strategies, such as prescribed fires, may be necessary to limit this increase. This would prevent the decrease of R. groenlandicum, as well as contribute to preserve biodiversity and harvestable volumes.

Projection of Mortality Burden Attributable to Nonoptimum Temperature with High Spatial Resolution in China.

The updated climate models provide projections at a fine scale, allowing us to estimate health risks due to future warming after accounting for spatial heterogeneity. Here, we utilized an ensemble of high-resolution (25 km) climate simulations and nationwide mortality data from 306 Chinese cities to estimate death anomalies attributable to future warming. Historical estimation (1986-2014) reveals that about 15.5% [95% empirical confidence interval (eCI):13.1%, 17.6%] of deaths are attributable to nonoptimal temperature, of which heat and cold corresponded to attributable fractions of 4.1% (eCI:2.4%, 5.5%) and 11.4% (eCI:10.7%, 12.1%), respectively. Under three climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585), the national average temperature was projected to increase by 1.45, 2.57, and 4.98 °C by the 2090s, respectively. The corresponding mortality fractions attributable to heat would be 6.5% (eCI:5.2%, 7.7%), 7.9% (eCI:6.3%, 9.4%), and 11.4% (eCI:9.2%, 13.3%). More than half of the attributable deaths due to future warming would occur in north China and cardiovascular mortality would increase more drastically than respiratory mortality. Our study shows that the increased heat-attributable mortality burden would outweigh the decreased cold-attributable burden even under a moderate climate change scenario across China. The results are helpful for national or local policymakers to better address the challenges of future warming.

Overheated children's playgrounds in Central European cities: The effects of surfaces and shading on thermal exposure during hot summer days

Thermal exposure in children's playgrounds is a specific issue in relation to outdoor thermal comfort. In moderate climate regions, playgrounds are prone to overheating on hot summer days. When aiming for a safe design for playgrounds, different thermal conditions with various active surfaces and shading solutions, both natural and artificial, should be considered. Twelve case studies were performed in four Czech cities to quantify the differences in thermal exposure between individual types of active surface and shading, using mean radiant temperature and the biometeorological indices UTCI and PET (plus its experimental child-specific adjustments) as an expression of the thermal environment on hot summer days. The highest thermal exposure appeared above gravel, followed by rubber. Nevertheless, apart from a slightly lower thermal exposure above maintained lawn, substantial positive microclimatic effect of natural surfaces, such as bark mulch, sand, or a small water pool, was not confirmed. In terms of shading, trees provide more pronounced cooling effect than shade sails, but even the latter are effective in substantially reducing heat stress. Analyses of experimental adjustment of PET further indicate the importance of considering the specifics of a child's organism and behavioural adaptation measures when addressing thermal comfort and heat stress in playgrounds.

Пространственная реконструкция климата востока Азии в раннем эоцене

Using the Coexistence Approach, climatic zones were identified for the Early Eocene of East Asia. Data for reconstruction include 48 palynofloras from the East Asia's Lower Eocene continental deposits from 75° to 19° N. The climatic inferences obtained are consistent with global trends, showing high values of mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP). According to our results, there is a weakly expressed latitudinal temperature gradient from the north to the south, showing an increasing trend for MAT values, while a very weakly expressed latitudinal gradient of precipitation demonstrates a decreasing trend for MAP values. Based on MAT and MAP values, three regional climatic zones are distinguished. The warm moderate climate zone (north of ≈ 55° paleolatitude) is characterized by low values for temperature (14.2-16.2 °C) and high ones for precipitation (1158-1334 mm). In the transition zone (≈ 45-55° paleolatitude), MAT values vary from 15.9 to 19.0 °C, and MAP values range from 874 to 1352 mm. The subtropical climate zone (south of ≈ 45° paleolatitude) is characterized by high values for temperature (16.5-19.1 °C) and low, for precipitation (874-1263 mm).

Quantifying current and potential future impacts of balsam woolly adelgid infestation on forest biomass

Balsam woolly adelgid (Adelges piceae; BWA) is an invasive forest pest in the US whose infestation in fir forests can cause widespread tree mortality. A growing body of evidence suggests that the severity of BWA’s effects is linked to climatic conditions, where sites featuring seasonally warmer temperatures tend to demonstrate higher degrees of insect-induced forest degradation. Thus, a warming climate may promote the expansion of BWA-driven damage, particularly in highly susceptible subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) forests. The degree to which climate change may foster BWA infestation and the relationship between current and future infestation damage severity are largely unknown. To understand BWA’s potential climate-driven impacts on subalpine fir forests now and in the future, we built a field-validated, spatially explicit predictive model that estimates BWA infestation severity as a function of locally downscaled temperature variables. Using only four seasonal temperature variables, our model was able to explain over 78% of variance in measured severity. We applied that model to the prediction of severity for five different time periods (2020, 2040, 2060, 2080, and 2100), with the 2040 and onward predictions being driven by four separate climatic shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585). These high resolution (∼30 m) maps were compared to spatially coincident modeled estimates of subalpine fir aboveground biomass, the results of which provide valuable insight into the degree to which BWA may drive forest degradation, loss of ecosystem services, and increase in available fuels. In northern Utah, the southeasternmost extent of BWA infestation in the western US, the two major mountain ranges, Wasatch and Uinta, demonstrated very different climatic susceptibility to infestation damage, with the former being highly exposed to BWA-induced degradation under even moderate climate projections, and the latter being fairly robust against BWA’s effects in all but the most extreme climate scenarios. In 2020, 41% of the study area’s subalpine fir biomass is climatically exposed to some level of damage from BWA. By 2100, even under moderate climate projections (SSP245), 79% will be exposed, with 37% predicted to feature relatively high severity. By placing our results within the context of the Resist, Accept, Direct land management framework, we offer spatially explicit guidance to inform current and future silvicultural practices to mitigate future damage to subalpine fir forests at the leading edge of BWA expansion in the western US.

АГРОБИОЛОГИЧЕСКАЯ И ЭНОЛОГИЧЕСКАЯ ХАРАКТЕРИСТИКА ПЕРСПЕКТИВНЫХ КЛОНОВ СОРТА САПЕРАВИ В УСЛОВИЯХ ЧЕРНОМОРСКОЙ АГРОЭКОЛОГИЧЕСКОЙ ЗОНЫ ВИНОГРАДАРСТВА

Clone breeding is one of the promising directions for obtaining productive, high-quality, adaptable to local conditions grape genotypes. The Saperavi variety is a classic for the winemaking of the Caucasus, therefore, its preservation for further production in the conditions of modern climate change is an urgent task. The present study is aimed at identifying clones of the Saperavi variety with improved yield and wine quality indicators that preserve productivity and adaptability to local conditions. The place of research is subzone № 1 of the Black Sea agroecological zone of viticulture, moderate continental climate, soils are southern chernozems. 2023 was much warmer compared to the climatic averages. 10 bushes (C1-C10) were isolated without visual signs of viral, bacterial and phytoplasmic infections, which, according to the results of DNA analysis, have a Saperavi DNA profile from the international VIVC database. According to the data of resistance to winter conditions, variants C2, C4, C6, C8 and C10 were distinguished, according to agrobiological records – C1, C7, C8 and C9, according to the average weight of the bunch – C1, C3, C5, C6 and C8; according to the yield per bush – C10, according to the productivity of the shoot – C2, C3 and C10. The qualitative indicators of the yield (the mass concentration of sugars and titrated acids in berry juice) were high in all variants. According to the volume fraction of ethyl alcohol, the mass concentration of titrated acids, volatile acids and the reduced extract of wine materials, all samples showed values corresponding to GOST. According to the mass concentration of sugars in dry wine in bulk, variants C1, C2, C6 and C10 were distinguished, according to the sum of phenolic substances – C2, C8 and C10, according to the sum of coloring substances – C2, C3 and C8. According to the tasting assessment, variants C3 and C6 were noted. Variants C2, C6 and C10 were determined based on a set of characteristics (resistance to winter conditions, moderate productivity and high quality of yield and wine products). Key words: GRAPES, CLONE BREEDING, PROTOCLONS, VITICULTURE, ZONING VITICULTURE

Greater ecophysiological stress tolerance in the core environment than in extreme environments of wild chickpea (Cicer reticulatum)

Global climate change and land use change underlie a need to develop new crop breeding strategies, and crop wild relatives (CWR) have become an important potential source of new genetic material to improve breeding efforts. Many recent approaches assume adaptive trait variation increases towards the relative environmental extremes of a species range, potentially missing valuable trait variation in more moderate or typical climates. Here, we leveraged distinct genotypes of wild chickpea (Cicer reticulatum) that differ in their relative climates from moderate to more extreme and perform targeted assessments of drought and heat tolerance. We found significance variation in ecophysiological function and stress tolerance between genotypes but contrary to expectations and current paradigms, it was individuals from more moderate climates that exhibited greater capacity for stress tolerance than individuals from warmer and drier climates. These results indicate that wild germplasm collection efforts to identify adaptive variation should include the full range of environmental conditions and habitats instead of only environmental extremes, and that doing so may significantly enhance the success of breeding programs broadly.

Dissolved organic matter offsets the detrimental effects of climate change in the nitrogen‐fixing cyanobacterium Crocosphaera

AbstractDiazotrophs provide a significant reactive nitrogen source in the ocean. Increased warming and stratification may decrease nutrient availability in the future, forcing microbial communities toward using dissolved organic matter (DOM). Not depending on reactive nitrogen availability, diazotrophs may be “winners” in a nutrient‐depleted ocean. However, their ability to exploit DOM may influence this success. We exposed cultures of the widespread Crocosphaera to low (26°C, pH 8.1), moderate (28°C, pH 8.0), and extreme (30°C, pH 7.9) climate change scenarios, under control or DOM‐amended conditions. Growth was suboptimal in the low and extreme treatments and favored in the moderate treatment. DOM was preferred as a carbon source regardless of the treatment and promoted N2 fixation in extreme conditions. This was reflected in the increased expression of photosynthesis genes to obtain energy. DOM provides Crocosphaera with a key ecological advantage, possibly dictating diazotroph‐derived nitrogen inputs in the future ocean.

The Living Concrete Experiment: Cultivation of Photosynthetically Active Microalgal on Concrete Finish Blocks

Climate change is a global critical issue. High carbon dioxide emissions and concentrations are important factors. In the construction field, concrete contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, a pioneering team of researchers has developed a new “living concrete” construction finish material capable of scrubbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The material consists of ASTM (ASTM is the acronym for American Society for Testing Materials)-certified concrete block(s) with Chlorella vulgaris cultivated on the surface. Chlorella vulgaris is a common micro-algae with photosynthetic activity; these species require water, nutrients, light, and carbon dioxide to live while releasing oxygen in return. The “living concrete” block was developed in dedicated laboratories; its photosynthetic activity was quantified. Proposed as an external application assembly to a new or an existing building envelope—up to 3 m high, i.e., anthropogenic street-level emissions, or installed on roof(s) in horizontal mode—this concrete/biological composite material reverses carbon dioxide emissions and may present itself as a valid solution for climate change issues in urban moderate climates.

Simulation-Driven Strategies for Improving Natural Ventilation in Educational Spaces: A Case Study of An Educational Building in Sari

Any architectural space, especially the architecture of an educational complex, should provide comfort for human beings in the face of geographical and climatic characteristics. Climatic factors have always profoundly affected the formation of the physical environment of buildings. Energy demand has always been one of society’s most critical issues. Saving resources is one of the architectural design goals to achieve a suitable environment-friendly architecture. This architectural approach, which comes from the concepts of sustainable development, is one of the basic human needs in the current world due to its compatibility with the environment. The goal is to build constructions that can improve the climate, prevent the waste of energy consumption, and avoid the adverse effects of construction on the environment. In traditional Iranian architecture, there are numerous passive methods; natural ventilation is an essential part of Iranian conventional building design, which is being ignored today. Since humid and moderate climates have high relative humidity on most days of the year, one important goal is to move the stagnant moisture inside to establish a suitable thermal environment for occupants. The research method of the present study is descriptive-analytical, which has been experimented with according to library studies in addition to climate and meteorological data. Then, analysis of the data is provided by an energy simulator. It is concluded that the best orientation of the educational building is south, which can provide proper natural ventilation and solar heat gain. In other words, optimal interior air quality is achieved in this orientation.

Influence of colourants on environmental degradation of plastic litter

Plastic degradation and the resultant production of microplastics has an important effect on the environment and fauna across the world. This paper shows that the colourant incorporated into plastic formulations has a significant effect on the stability of plastics. A static experimental exposure of differently coloured polypropylene bottle tops from the same manufacturer to a moderate climate over 3 years showed that black, white and silver plastics were almost unaffected whereas the specific blue, green and especially red pigments used in this study were significantly degraded. The second part of the study collected littered HDPE plastic containers from a remote South African beach and analysed their condition as a function of the given manufacturing date stamp. Most items were black or white and samples up to 45 years old were found with relatively little environmental degradation other than mild abrasion. It appears that carbon and titanium dioxide colourants protect the HDPE polymer from photolytic degradation. While anthraquinone, phthalocyanine and diketopyrrolopyrrole pigments were found to enable UV light to degrade the polymer leading to brittle plastics, promoting the formation of microplastics, it is likely that other pigments that do not strongly absorb in the UV will result in similar degradation.

Optimizing Air Ventilation Cooling With Earth-Water Heat Exchangers in Residential Buildings

This study investigated the cooling effect of an Earth Water-Air Heat Exchanger (EWAHE) device for ventilation applications. To address the lack of data on EWAHE performance in moderate climates, we measured temperature parameters (inlet-outlet, indoor-outdoor, water, and soil) continuously for three days. Air temperatures, air flowrate, light intensity are measured using a multi-channel data logger with several sensors. Results showed that the EWAHE effectively reduced indoor air temperature by an average of 7.5°C with a maximum reduction of 9.3°C, offering a promising passive cooling solution for buildings. The primary limitation of this study is that it requires open space around the building to place the device, so this method is inappropriate for building in a dense urban area. Future studies could investigate the association between ground-water cooling effect and natural ventilation without using energy for air circulation.

Beyond the sine wave: unveiling climate-driven baseline mortality cycles.

The relationship between temperature and mortality is well-established, with higher mortality rates occurring in moderate climates during winter. Studies on COVID-19 and influenza-related excess deaths often assume a sine-like wave pattern for baseline mortality. This study aims to assess the accuracy of this approximation in capturing the observed mortality pattern and explore its linkage with climate. Weekly mortality data from European regions (2000-2019) were modeled using the seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on Loess. Cycles were grouped into clusters, and underlying trends were extracted using principal component analysis. Generalized linear models assuming a sine-like pattern were used to test predictive value. Cluster analysis divided the regional cycles approximately into continental and temperate climate regions, further subdivided into oceanic and Mediterranean. While the continental region exhibited a sine-like mortality pattern, it displayed modest deviations that compounded further south. The period of elevated winter mortality became shorter but more intense, while decreased summer mortality became more pronounced yet delayed. This study improves weekly estimations of excess mortality models by providing enhanced baselines. The deviation from the sine-like approximation mirrors the idealized outbreak pattern from epidemiological models with sharper surges and more gradual declines. The results point to winter infections, impacted by acquired immunity and weather conditions, as the primary drivers of fluctuations in mortality. In warmer regions, there is an apparent shift toward a lower number of overall infections within a compressed time span.

Can crop production intensification through irrigation be sustainable? An ex-ante impact study of the south-central coastal zone of Bangladesh

In Bangladesh’s south-central coastal zone, there is considerable potential to intensify crop production by growing dry winter season ‘Boro’ rice, maize, wheat, pulses and oilseeds using irrigation from southward flowing and predominantly freshwater rivers. However, the impacts of surface water withdrawal for sustained irrigation and its safe operating space remain unclear. We used field measurements and simulation modeling to investigate the effects of irrigation water withdrawal for Boro rice–the most water-consumptive crop–on river water flow and salinity under different climate change and river flow scenarios. Under the baseline conditions, about 250,000 ha could potentially be irrigated with river water that has salinity levels below 2 dS/m. The impact on river water salinity would be minimal, and only between 0.71 to 1.12% of the cropland would shift from the 0–2 dS/m class to higher salinity levels. Similarly, for the moderate climate change scenario (RCP 4.5) that forecasts a sea level rise of 22 cm in 2050, there would be a minor change in water flow and salinity. Only under the extreme climate change scenario (RCP 8.5), resulting in a sea level rise of 43 cm by 2050 and low flow conditions that are exceeded in 90% of the cases, the 2 dS/m isohaline would move landward by 64 to 105 km in March and April for the Tentulia and Buriswar Rivers. This would expose an additional 36.6% of potentially irrigable cropland to salinity levels of 2 to 4 dS/m. However, Boro rice will already be well established by that time and can tolerate greater levels of salinity. We conclude that there is considerable scope to expand irrigated crop production without negatively exposing the cropland and rivers to detrimental salinization levels while preserving the ecosystem services of the rivers.

Optimized Wind Environment in Campus Transitional Spaces: A Case Study of Kunming University of Science and Technology Office Building in Moderate Climate

In the post-epidemic era, there is a growing demand for health-oriented spaces. In moderate climate regions (where the outdoors is warmer in the summer and cooler in the winter, neither to an extreme), external spaces offer a greater potential to create healthy and comfortable environment compared to internal spaces, with extended utilization periods. Transition spaces, a distinctive type of external space, are prevalent in numerous campus architectural designs; however, their utilization remains relatively unexplored. The quality of the physical environment in transition spaces plays a pivotal role in influencing people’s decision to stay or leave. This study, utilizing the office building at Kunming University of Science and Technology (Chenggong Campus) as a case study, focuses on creating a conducive wind environment within the transition space. Employing Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulation, the study analyzes contributing factors and proposes optimization strategies. The findings aim to serve as a valuable reference for the design of the transition spaces on university campuses in moderate climate regions, aligning with the heightened emphasis on health-conscious spatial planning in the contemporary era.

Climate Change Threatens the Habitat of Pinus massoniana in China

Pinus massoniana Lamb. is one of the main timber tree species. There is a large artificial planting area in South China, and this tree has important economic and ecological value. In this research, we built a comprehensive habitat suitability model based on 115 current data and 22 environmental variables to analyze the potential suitable habitat distribution of this species. Future climate change scenarios were defined as four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs): SSP 1–2.6, SSP 2–4.5, SSP 3–7.0, SSP 5–8.5) and four periods (including 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100) based on nine global circulation model datasets. To fully consider the potential distribution of P. massoniana under specific climate change conditions and soil conditions, we constructed an ensemble model using four commonly used model algorithms. The results indicated that the current suitable habitat for P. massoniana covers approximately 1.10 × 106 km2 in southeastern China. In the future, the model results showed that under different climate change scenarios and at different times, the change in suitable habitat for P. massoniana varied; moreover, under moderate climate change scenarios, the average temperature decreased by less than 3 °C and the suitable habitat area decreased slightly, with an area larger than 0.95 × 106 km2. However, under intense warming scenarios, for which the average temperature increased above 3 °C, the suitable habitat for P. massoniana decreased. In the most severe warming scenario, the suitable habitat area for P. massoniana was reduced to 44% of the base climate conditions with severe habitat fragmentation, which should be fully considered in future planting initiatives and plant protection.

Air pollution seasons in urban moderate climate areas through big data analytics

High particulate matter (PM) concentrations have a negative impact on the overall quality of life and health. The annual trends of PM can vary greatly depending on factors such as a country’s energy mix, development level, and climatic zone. In this study, we aimed to understand the annual cycle of PM concentrations in a moderate climate zone using a dense grid of low-cost sensors located in central Europe (Krakow). Over one million unique records of PM, temperature, humidity, pressure and wind speed observations were analyzed to gain a detailed, high-resolution understanding of yearly fluctuations. The comprehensive big-data workflow was presented with the statistical analysis of the meteorological factors. A big data-driven approach revealed the existence of two main PM seasons (warm and cold) in Europe’s moderate climate zone, which do not correspond directly with the traditional four main seasons (Autumn, Winter, Spring, and Summer) with two side periods (early spring and early winter). Our findings also highlighted the importance of high-resolution time and space data for sustainable spatial planning. The observations allowed for distinguishing whether the source of air pollution is related to coal burning for heating in cold period or to agricultural lands burning during the warm period.

Assessing the Effectiveness of an Innovative Thermal Energy Storage System Installed in a Building in a Moderate Continental Climatic Zone

In the present work, the operating results from an innovative, renewable, energy-based space-heating and domestic hot water (DHW) system are shown. The system used solar thermal energy as its primary source and was assisted by a shallow geothermal application in order to accommodate the space-heating and DHW needs of a domestic building in Austria. The system incorporated phase-change materials (PCMs) in specially designed containers to function as heat-storage modules and provide an energy storage capability for both the space-heating and DHW subsystems. This system was designed, implemented, and tested under real operating conditions in a building for a period of one year. The operating and energy results for the system are demonstrated in this work. The system was compared with a conventional one, and a reduction in the primary energy consumption equal to 84.3% was achieved. The maintenance and operating costs of the system were reduced by 79.7% compared to the conventional system, thus significantly contributing to the NZEB target of the building. The newly proposed system, although presenting an increased operating complexity, utilizes an innovative self-learning control system that manages all of its operations. The combination of a solar thermal energy source with thermal energy storage increases the use of renewable energy by extending the capacity of the system beyond the solar hours and using excess solar energy for space-heating needs. The thermal energy storage unit also increases the energy and economic efficiency of the geothermal heat pump by operating it during the hours of a reduced electricity tariff and using the stored energy during hours of a high electricity demand. The cost for the installation of such a system is higher than a conventional one, but due to the significantly decreased operating costs, the pay-back period was calculated to be 8.7 years.

Thermal stress comfort in a contemporary housing district in a moderate climate zone, Lublin as a case study

Urban climate and its impact on the thermal comfort of residents are significant aspects in urban planning and the design of housing estates. The aim of this article is to investigate the temperature perception among residents in a contemporary residential area in Lublin during the hottest day, utilising an advanced computer simulation tool – the ENVI-met programme. A modern, densely built housing estate with no significant greenery was selected as a case study. General meteorological and spatial data were used for calibrating the housing estate model within the software. The housing estate model within the programme was calibrated using publicly available meteorological and spatial data, and computer simulations were conducted for Lublin's hottest day on 22 July 2022. Based on these simulations, the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) was calculated. The research results indicate that people experience moderate thermal stress in unshaded areas only at 4:00 pm, while in sunny locations, they experience strong to very strong heat stress throughout the day. This article underscores the importance of computer simulations in analysing the urban microclimate and provides insights into tools that can be used in urban planning and housing estate design processes, with the aim of creating more comfortable and environmentally friendly urban environments.

Integrating spatial stream network models and environmental DNA to estimate current and future distributions of nonnative Smallmouth Bass

AbstractObjectiveClimate change is fueling the rapid range expansion of invasive species in freshwater ecosystems. This has led to mounting calls from natural resource managers for more robust predictions of invasive species distributions to anticipate threats to species of concern and implement proactive conservation and restoration actions. Here, we applied recent advances in fish sampling and statistical modeling in river networks to estimate the current and future watershed‐scale spatial distribution of nonnative Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu.MethodsWe integrated a spatial stream network (SSN) model of stream temperature, landscape environmental covariates, and Smallmouth Bass occurrence data based on environmental DNA (eDNA) detections to develop an SSN species distribution model (SDM) representing current Smallmouth Bass distributions in the Chehalis River, Washington State, a large coastal river basin of ongoing watershed‐scale restoration. The SDM was informed by spatially intensive eDNA sampling from 135 locations in the main stem and major tributaries. We then applied downscaled climate change projections to the SSN SDM to predict Smallmouth Bass range expansion in the basin by late century.ResultWe identified high levels of spatial autocorrelation at hydrological distances of ≤10 km in our eDNA data set, underscoring the importance of applying an SSN modeling framework. Stream temperature was identified as the most important environmental covariate explaining variability in Smallmouth Bass occurrence. Model predictions estimated that current suitable summer habitat for Smallmouth Bass habitat spans 681 km and is projected to nearly double by late century (1333 km) under a moderate climate change scenario. Current and future suitable habitat for Smallmouth Bass is prevalent in important tributaries for spring Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, a species of major conservation concern in the Chehalis River and more broadly along the Pacific coast. In both the main stem and tributaries, the SSN SDM predictions of the upstream leading edges of Smallmouth Bass closely align with (within 4.8 km) edges identified by spatially intensive eDNA sampling.ConclusionOur study highlights the value of integrating SSN models with rapidly growing eDNA data sets for accurate and precise riverine fish distribution estimation. Our application provides crucial insights for anticipating the impacts of shifting invasive species on Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. in a warming world.