Moderate Climate Research Articles

Comparing Geothermal Heat Pump Systems to Conventional HVAC Systems in Hot and Humid Climates

Geothermal heat pump (GHP) systems are more concentrated to moderate climate regions, although the potential for GHP systems in hot and humid climates is possible as past research efforts have demonstrated this using simulations and commercial case examples. This research investigates the use of residential GHP systems for the hot and humid climate found in southern Louisiana. The authors collected field performance information, including initial system cost, and electricity consumption and costs from two residential case studies in which each case included one home with a conventional heating and cooling system and one home with a GHP system. Using a comparative analysis and analysis of variance, results illustrate that initial cost of GHP system in the first case was $13,285 more and the second case was $17,588 more than the installation costs of a conventional system. Further, the GHP system payback period depends on the whether the design uses a horizontal or vertical ground loop, and the designer and contractor’s quality and experience in performing the GHP work as the first case resulted in a payback period of 70 years while the second case had a payback period of only seven years. Findings show that when an appropriate installation occurs, GHP system can save consumption and energy costs for residential homes in hot and humid climates.

Observational constraints on low cloud feedback reduce uncertainty of climate sensitivity

Marine low clouds strongly cool the planet. How this cooling effect will respond to climate change is a leading source of uncertainty in climate sensitivity, the planetary warming resulting from CO2 doubling. Here, we observationally constrain this low cloud feedback at a near-global scale. Satellite observations are used to estimate the sensitivity of low clouds to interannual meteorological perturbations. Combined with model predictions of meteorological changes under greenhouse warming, this permits quantification of spatially resolved cloud feedbacks. We predict positive feedbacks from midlatitude low clouds and eastern ocean stratocumulus, nearly unchanged trade cumulus and a near-global marine low cloud feedback of 0.19 ± 0.12 W m−2 K−1 (90% confidence). These constraints imply a moderate climate sensitivity (~3 K). Despite improved midlatitude cloud feedback simulation by several current-generation climate models, their erroneously positive trade cumulus feedbacks produce unrealistically high climate sensitivities. Conversely, models simulating erroneously weak low cloud feedbacks produce unrealistically low climate sensitivities.

Actinidia (Mini Kiwi) Fruit Quality in Relation to Summer Cutting

Recently, there has been a trend towards healthy food. Consumers are looking for products that have health-promoting properties in addition to their taste. Actinidia fruit, apart from being tasty, contains valuable macro and micronutrients, vitamins, polyphenols and pectins. Tested cultivar Sientiabrskaja belong to Actinidia arguta and cultivars Geneva, Issai and Ken’s Red to A. kolomitka. They well tolerate conditions of moderate climate with negative temperatures in winter. To improve fruit quality, an additional summer pruning of the plants was performed at the time of ripening. After the second additional cutting of Actinidia shoots, an increase in the content of N, P and K in fruit was observed. The additional pruning also had a beneficial effect on the change in fruit color. The fruits were darker, especially in the cultivars Geneva and Ken’s Red. This is related to the ripening of fruit and an increase in anthocyanin content. Additional summer pruning caused changes in the polyphenol content-the amount of phenolic acid and flavan-3 ols decreased, while the level of anthocyanins increased. The antioxidant capacity also increased as well as fruit size, dry matter, pectin and Soluble Solid Content (SSC) content. The acidity of the fruit also decreased which positively affects the taste of the fruit. The highest content of polyphenols and L-ascorbic acid was found in ‘Sientiabrskaja’ fruit; but the highest antioxidant activity (determined Free Radical Diphenylpicrylhydrazyl-DPPH•, ABTS•+ and Ferric Antioxidant Power-FRAP) was found in fruit with red skin coloring and anthocyanins-‘Issai’ and ‘Ken’s Red’.

An optimization approach to photovoltaic building integration towards low energy buildings in different climate zones

Building integrated photovoltaic systems (BIPVs) focusing on windows, such as semi-transparent photovoltaic (STPV) or PV shading devices (PVSD), are proposed as efficient approaches to the production of electricity and the improvement of building energy performance. However, glass replacement with advanced PV concepts needs thorough energy and environmental assessment, since it took more than a millennium to produce transparent window glass of high visibility. Despite the many published studies in relation to the performance of each technology, there are limited comparative investigations of the proposed PV integration options and the most appropriate integration solutions for different climatic regions. Here, we report, for the first time, on the energy performance of four BIPVs that control solar radiation through windows and their effect on the built environment for three different climatic zones. The evaluation was done through TRNSYS simulations and calculation of representative indexes associated with thermal and visual comfort. A BIPV-flexibility index, given as a ratio of self-sufficiency to self-consumption, is proposed as a figure of merit for the assessment of each BIPV technology’s electricity production and its effect on building energy performance. The findings clearly show that BIPVs could substantially contribute to the transition to zero energy buildings due to their passive energy benefits (up to 43% savings) in addition to their electricity production. Opaque module, PV shadings and PV windows optimize the BIPV-flexibility index (up to 0.57) for cold, moderate and hot climates, with acceptable indoor thermal (up to 54% of time) and visual (up to 83% of time) comfort.

Moderate warming will expand the suitable habitat of Ophiocordyceps sinensis and expand the area of O. sinensis with high adenosine content

Ophiocordyceps sinensis is a valued entomopathogenic fungus endemic to the Tibetan Plateau. Large-scale commercial harvesting and collection have decreased the production and distribution of this fungus, especially for high-quality O. sinensis. Using adenosine content as a quality index of O. sinensis, we developed a comprehensive niche modelling approach to predict the spatial pattern of O. sinensis quality. Based on distribution and quality data for O. sinensis from published field work and experimental data, we separately built a comprehensive habitat suitability model to identify suitable habitats and a spatial quality model to map the adenosine content pattern in O. sinensis. The final model result was defined as the product of the results of the two models. Via this modelling process, we analysed the adenosine content in O. sinensis under baseline climates and different scenarios of future climate change. The model results showed that with increasing temperature, the suitable habitat of O. sinensis tended to shift to the high-latitude and high-altitude hinterland of the Tibetan Plateau, and moderate climate warming expanded the area of suitable habitat for O. sinensis, as well as the area of habitats with high adenosine contents. This study provides information necessary for the conservation and sustainable utilization of O. sinensis, and a comprehensive niche model approach to simulate the contents of effective components in natural medicinal materials; thus, the results can contribute to our understanding of climate change impacts on medicinal materials.

Correlating the cloud point of biodiesel with its fatty acid methyl ester composition: Multiple regression analyses and the weighted saturation factor (wSF)

Biodiesel is an alternative fuel that is typically composed of fatty acid methyl esters (FAME) from transesterification of fats or plant oils with methanol. When blended with conventional diesel fuels, biodiesel improves combustion quality and reduces harmful exhaust emissions. On the other hand, biodiesel has poor cold flow properties that can compromise its use during cold weather in moderate temperature climates. In the present study, nine mathematical models were proposed to calculate the cloud point (CP) of biodiesel based on the concentrations and melting properties of the FAME components. Experimental data were compiled for four biodiesel fuels made from canola, palm and soybean oils and yellow grease (CaME, PME, SME and YGME) plus 24 binary admixtures of these fuels. Four models were inferred from multiple regression analysis of CP as functions of Xi = (MPixi; MPi = melting point and xi = mole fraction of the FAME species). These models yielded high correlation coefficients (R2 ≥ 0.997) and low absolute average deviations (AAD) ≤ 0.60 K from analysis of calculated (CPcalc) versus measured data. The results helped to identify species that influenced the CP of FAME mixtures. Five additional models based on the weighted saturation factor (wSF) index as an independent variable for correlating the CP of biodiesel were inferred. The indices were calculated as weighted sums of Xi terms for species present in the FAME mixtures. Both an arbitrarily assigned weight factor (wi) and the MPi of the pure FAME species were used to calculate the wSF indices. The wSF index-based models were developed from regression analysis of FA profile and experimental CP data for the 28 FAME mixtures. Four models yielded R2 = 0.968–0.977 and AAD ≤ 0.73 from analysis of CPcalcversus measured CP data.

Climate change alters the ability of neotropical forests to provide timber and sequester carbon

Logging is widespread in tropical regions, with approximately 50% of all humid tropical forests (1.73 × 109 ha) regarded as production forests. To maintain the ecosystem functions of carbon sequestration and timber supply in tropical production forests over a long term, forest management must be sustainable under changing climate conditions. Individual-based forest models are useful tools to enhance our understanding about the long-term effects of harvest and climate change on forest dynamics because they link empirical field data with simulations of ecological processes.The objective of this study is to analyze the combined effects of selective logging and climate change on biomass stocks and timber harvest in a tropical forest in French Guiana. By applying a forest model, we simulated natural forest dynamics under the baseline scenario of current climate conditions and compared the results with scenarios of selective logging under climate change. The analyses revealed how substantially forest dynamics are altered under different scenarios of climate change. (1) Repeated logging within recovery times decreased biomass and timber harvest, irrespective of the intensity of climate change. (2) With moderate climate change as envisaged by the 5th IPCC Assessment Report (representative concentration pathway 2.6), the average biomass remained the same as in the baseline scenario (−1%), but with intensive climate change (RCP 8.5), the average biomass decreased by 12%. (3) The combination of selective logging and climate change increased the likelihood of changes in forest dynamics, driven mainly by rising temperatures. Under RCP 8.5, the average timber harvest was almost halved, regardless of the logging cycle applied.An application-oriented use of forest models will help to identify opportunities to reduce the effects of unwanted ecosystem changes in a changing environment. To ensure that ecosystem functions in production forests are maintained under climate change conditions, appropriate management strategies will help to maintain biomass and harvest in production forests.

Semi-Minimal-Pruned Hedge (SMPH) as a Climate Change Adaptation Strategy: Impact of Different Yield Regulation Approaches on Vegetative and Generative Development, Maturity Progress and Grape Quality in Riesling

The training system Semi-Minimal-Pruned Hedge (SMPH) blends features of traditional Vertical Shoot Positioning-type (VSP) trellising systems with the concept of minimal pruning. While saving labor, this training system results in relatively high crop load and a poor leaf area to fruit weight-ratio (LFR), and thus, needs to be able to ripen grapes in a cool to moderate climate. For these reasons the impact of yield regulation strategies, including (i) shoot thinning (Darwin-Rotor), (ii) biotechnological thinning (Gibberellic acid), and (iii) bunch thinning (harvest machine) were trialed in a three year study at Geisenheim, Germany between 2017 and 2019 using Riesling (Vitis vinifera L.). The average yield per vine in SMPH (5.34 ± 1.10 kg) was 61.1% higher with a narrower LFR (14.01 cm2 g−1), compared with VSP (3.32 ± 1.02 kg, LFR: 16.99 cm2 g−1). The yield was successfully reduced and LFR simultaneously increased with shoot thinning (−33.1%, LFR: 19.04 cm2 g−1), biotechnological thinning (−18.3%, LFR: 16.69 cm2 g−1) and bunch thinning (−37.3%, LFR: 21.49 cm2 g−1). Ripening was delayed in SMPH. On average, two maturity thresholds (14.1 °Brix and 18.2 °Brix) were achieved 129 GDD (seven days according to the recorded daily mean temperatures, respectively) and 269 GDD (16 days) later in non-thinned SMPH, compared to VSP. All thinning treatments accelerated maturity progress ranging from 27 GDD (two days) to 58 GDD (three days) for 14.1 °Brix and 59 GDD (three days) to 105 GDD (six days) for 18.2 °Brix. Apart from immediate benefits on the economic efficiency, the adaption of the leaf area to fruit weight ratio using SMPH holds high potential to, (i) produce grapes targeting specific wine profiles and/or (ii) reducing the velocity of ripening under conditions of climatic change.

Influence factors for using hydraulic binders for soil stabilisation of fine-grained soils in cold environment

The stabilization of soft soils with hydraulic binder is a common technique all over the world. By means of stabilization the engineering properties of fine-grained soils can be improved, where settlements or stability problems have to be handled. Lime and cement are usual binders. The use of industrial by-products as binders has been investigated and some are already established on the market in combination with cement, as e.g. fly ash or slag. Nowadays the reduction of CO2 is in focus, leading to a search for more by-products from the industry that are suitable to use as hydraulic binder. One of these is cement kiln dust (CKD) that is started to be used commercially as a binder in combination with cement.Fine-grained soils are often frost susceptible i. e. they show frost heave and/or thaw weakening. These typical problems are handled by improvement with hydraulic binder in countries with moderate climate [33]. In countries with cold climate, near surface soil stabilization with hydraulic binder is less used. One reason for this reduced usage are uncertainties about the influence of low temperature on the expected stabilizing effects of the hydraulic binder. Previous research has shown that the strength of the stabilized material is decreased by frost impact, when compared to without frost. New research results have shown a recovering of the strength after a reduction due to frost [1; 2].In the present contribution, a multiple linear regression analysis is presented for identifying significant influencing factors for soil stabilization of fine-grained subgrade with hydraulic binders in cold environment. The regression analysis is based on the results from three earlier published laboratory studies [3-5], where the unconfined compressive strength (UCS) was used as a measure of strength. The laboratory studies involved different soil types, different binders (mainly by-products), and varying binder contents.The results from the laboratory studies show that the strength increases during curing in cold environment. After twelve freeze-thaw-cycles the strength is reduced for several samples, compared to without freeze-thaw-cycles, but it is higher than without stabilization. A recovering of strength after a subsequent curing time after the freeze-thaw-cycles is visible in some cases for the stabilized samples. The multiple linear regression analysis presented here shows the influence of the binder content, as well as the freeze-thaw-cycles and the curing time, on the strength.

EFFECTS OF PHOTOPERIODISM ON DAILY RHYTHMS OF BLOOD PRESSURE AND HEART RATE IN DIFFERENT SEASONS OF THE YEAR IN THE ARCTIC

Objective: To study the effect of the rhythm of natural light on circadian rhythms of blood pressure (BP) and heart rate (HR) in the Arctic. Design and method: Analysis of 24-hour BP monitoring was performed in 373 male patients with arterial hypertension (AH) stage II engaged in rotational shiftwork in the Arctic compared with the group of the same type of 144 patients living in moderate climate (Tyumen, 57 N) 93 randomly selected patients of the Northern group and 64 patients of the Tyumen group. Based on 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure monitoring chronobiological and standard parameters, daily BP profile, circadian BP and HR indices, percentage contribution value (PC), amplitude of a rhythm (RA), acrophase and BP MESOR in different seasons were analyzed. Results: In the conditions of Arctic shift work circadian BP and HR rhythms in patients with AH differed significantly compared with Tyumen patients regardless of season and were characterized by the absence of seasonality signs of BP and HR rhythms and the presence of inside desynchronosis of rhythms. Lack of natural light during the polar day and polar night leads to flattened HR and circadian BP in patients with AH in the Far North. The major differences were the loss of 24-hour period components and low-amplitude spectrum profile. Seasonal changes in the HR parameters were not significant in the comparison group versus northern group with a clear flattening of HR in the polar day period. In the main group of patients the worst condition for 24-hour BP profile was winter period (polar night) characterized by the peak flattening of circadian rhythms and the prevalence of high-frequency oscillations in the spectrum. Conclusions: In patients with AH in the conditions of Arctic shift work, formation of daily rhythm and absence of seasonality signs of HR and BP is associated with nature of work and climate factors, including natural light rhythm in the northern latitude.

Prioritization of the effective factors in reducing energy consumption in a residential building using computer simulation

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: According to the latest energy balance sheets, the average energy consumption in the residential sector of Iran is about 41% of the total energy consumption in the country. Increasing the energy efficiency of buildings can decrease the annual energy consumption in the residential sector and, thereby, the energy costs of families. The objectives of this study were to evaluate and prioritize the effective factors in reducing the energy consumption in residential buildings in the north of Iran using the climatic conditions analysis.METHODS: In the first step, the amount of energy consumption in the cooling and heating section was estimated in the base conditions, and in the next step, the amount of energy consumption was calculated. The obtained results were compared with each other with the help of optimization strategies for energy consumption using the Design Builder software. Finally, a set of effective factors were determined to be involved in decreasing the energy consumption.FINDING: The results showed that application of the LED lamps instead of the conventional fluorescent lamps could decrease the energy consumption by 980.4 kWh. Moreover, changing the materials of the walls and ceiling, using the polyurethane foam insulation with the thickness of 20 mm, and using the double-glazed UPVC windows reduced the energy consumption by 770 kWh. Energy reduction of about 101.5 kWh was also obtained after external movable awning and internal blind.CONCLUSION: The most commonly used materials were analyzed by the Design Builder software. The analysis was done by integrating building architecture engineering (the best form of orientation and facade) based on the reasonable costs of consuming common materials in the area. The obtained results can be used for both evaluating the energy efficiency in residential buildings and producing a comfortable living environment in a moderate and humid climate.

Organizational climate for safe and effective inter-unit handoffs in Japanese hospitals.

To extract the organizational climate factors that contribute to safe and effective inter-unit patient handoffs, as well as to capture their crucial characteristics in the context of current Japanese hospitals. A questionnaire survey was conducted among nursing staff in 31 general hospitals, collecting a total of 5117 valid responses (69% response rate). A five-factor model was established to determine the inter-unit handoff climate within hospitals. This comprised information and responsibility-related risk, role understanding, communication, handoff environment, and guidelines and process. Based on nursing staff perceptions, the inter-unit handoff climate in Japanese hospitals were generally found to be moderate or moderate-to-high levels across all five of the factors. Nursing staff's perceptions of all five climate factors differed significantly across hospitals and work units, rather than working conditions (full-time vs. part-time) or professions (nurse vs. nurse assistant). All five handoff factors were verified their significant impacts on patient safety awareness and handoff quality. Furthermore, in hospitals where staff perceptions of handoff climate were more positive, information was transferred more effectively. An inter-unit handoff climate structure was extracted and verified its impact on handoff quality and safety. Due to moderate climate levels in Japanese hospitals, as well as background factors such as low risk awareness among staff and busy situations, promoting a more positive organizational culture is suggested for creating safer and more effective inter-unit handoffs. Improving the current handoff guidelines and processes in hospitals and using non-licensed assistive staff more effectively are also recommended.

Explaining the Spatial Pattern of U.S. Extreme Daily Precipitation Change

AbstractObserved United States trends in the annual maximum 1-day precipitation (RX1day) over the last century consist of 15%–25% increases over the eastern United States (East) and 10% decreases over the far western United States (West). This heterogeneous trend pattern departs from comparatively uniform observed increases in precipitable water over the contiguous United States. Here we use an event attribution framework involving parallel sets of global atmospheric model experiments with and without climate change drivers to explain this spatially diverse pattern of extreme daily precipitation trends. We find that RX1day events in our model ensembles respond to observed historical climate change forcing differently across the United States with 5%–10% intensity increases over the East but no appreciable change over the West. This spatially diverse forced signal is broadly similar among three models used, and is positively correlated with the observed trend pattern. Our analysis of model and observations indicates the lack of appreciable RX1day signals over the West is likely due to dynamical effects of climate change forcing—via a wintertime atmospheric circulation anomaly that suppresses vertical motion over the West—largely cancelling thermodynamic effects of increased water vapor availability. The large magnitude of eastern U.S. RX1day increases is unlikely a symptom of a regional heightened sensitivity to climate change forcing. Instead, our ensemble simulations reveal considerable variability in RX1day trend magnitudes arising from internal atmospheric processes alone, and we argue that the remarkable observed increases over the East has most likely resulted from a superposition of strong internal variability with a moderate climate change signal. Implications for future changes in U.S. extreme daily precipitation are discussed.

Impact of future climate scenarios on peatland and constructed wetland water quality: A mesocosm experiment within climate chambers

Water purification is one of the most essential services provided by wetlands. A lot of concerns regarding wetlands subjected to climate change relate to their susceptibility to hydrological change and the increase in temperature as a result of global warming. A warmer condition may accelerate the rate of decomposition and release of nutrients, which can be exported downstream and cause serious ecological challenges; e.g., eutrophication and acidification. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of climate change on water quality in peatland and constructed wetland ecosystems subject to water level management. For this purpose, the authors simulated the current climate scenario base on the database from Malmö station (Scania, Sweden) for 2016 and 2017 as well as the future climate scenarios for the last 30 years of the century based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and different regional climate models (RCM) for a region wider than Scania County. For future climate change, the authors simulated low (RCP 2.6), moderate (RCP 4.5) and extreme (RCP 8.5) climate scenarios. All simulations were conducted within climate chambers for experimental peatland and constructed wetland mesocosms. Our results demonstrate that the effect of climate scenario is significantly different for peatlands and constructed wetlands (interactive effect) for the combined chemical variables. The warmest climate scenario RCP 8.5 is linked to a higher water purification function for constructed wetlands, but to a lower water purification function and a subsequent deterioration of peatland water qualities, even if subjected to water level management. The explanation for the different response of constructed wetlands and peatlands to climate change could be due to the fact that the substrate in the constructed wetland mesocosms and peatlands was different in terms of the organic matter quality and quantity. The utilization of nutrients by the plants and microbial community readily exceed the mineralization under a limited nutrient content (as we had in constructed wetland) when the temperature rises. However, concerning the extreme scenario RCP 8.5, the peatlands have shown a tendency to have reverse processes.

The Impacts of Orientation and Building form on Internal Temperature of Visitor Center Building for Moderate and Hot Climate

Passive building strategies such as building form, orientation and window ratio can have an essential impact on the indoor temperature. Building form and ordination can obtain heat gains. The designer usually designs buildings with little consideration of heat gains. This study pointed to the influence of building form and orientation in internal temperature in moderate and hot climates. In the present paper, the impact of building orientation on the indoor thermal comfort conditions expressed in terms of internal temperature is numerically investigated. This is motivated by required achievement of the thermal comfort conditions in such buildings located on hot climate regions. Moreover, the moderate climate regions are also incorporated in the present study. The numerical simulation is carried out using the TAS EDSL software to assess the optimum form model for a prefab visitor center. The result, in a moderate climate, showed that the ideal direction was obtained when the visitor center faces the south direction. Different models for building orientations have been studied and the results are presented. The results should that the internal temperature was 37.85oC for the currently model orientation and 37.71oC for the other model (known as model D), where the external temperature was 37.9oC. The worst orientations were the west direction for the case study and the east for the D model. In terms of hot climate, the internal temperature decreased by 1.0oC when west-facing. However, models with openings decreased 0.5oC. There are other passive design strategies that can be installed to models which can lead to improving the thermal comfort. The strategies can be considered for further future research.

The geography of climate migration

AbstractIn this paper, we investigate the long-term effects of climate change on the mobility of working-age people. We use a world economy model that covers almost all the countries around the world, and distinguishes between rural and urban regions as well as between flooded and unflooded areas. The model is calibrated to match international and internal mobility data by education level for the last 30 years, and is then simulated under climate change variants. We endogenize the size, dyadic, and skill structure of climate migration. When considering moderate climate scenarios, we predict mobility responses in the range of 70–108 million workers over the course of the twenty-first century. Most of these movements are local or inter-regional. South–South international migration responses are smaller, while the South–North migration response is of the “brain drain” type and induces a permanent increase in the number of foreigners in OECD countries in the range of 6–9% only. Changes in the sea level mainly translate into forced local movements. By contrast, inter-regional and international movements are sensitive to temperature-related changes in productivity. Lastly, we show that relaxing international migration restrictions may exacerbate the poverty effect of climate change at origin if policymakers are unable to select/screen individuals in extreme poverty.

How can LNG-fuelled ships meet decarbonisation targets? An environmental and economic analysis

International shipping faces strong challenges with new legally binding air quality regulations and a 50% decarbonisation target by 2050. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is a widely used alternative to liquid fossil fuels, but methane emissions reduce its overall climate benefit. This study utilises new emissions measurements and supply-chain data to conduct a comprehensive environmental life cycle and cost assessment of LNG as a shipping fuel, compared to heavy fuel oil (HFO), marine diesel oil (MDO), methanol and prospective renewable fuels (hydrogen, ammonia, biogas and biomethanol). LNG gives improved air quality impacts, reduced fuel costs and moderate climate benefits compared to liquid fossil fuels, but with large variation across different LNG engine types. Methane slip from some engines is unacceptably high, whereas the best performing LNG engine offers up to 28% reduction in global warming potential when combined with the best-case LNG supply chain. Total methane emissions must be reduced to 0.8–1.6% to ensure climate benefit is realised across all timescales compared to current liquid fuels. However, it is no longer acceptable to merely match incumbent fuels; progress must be made towards decarbonisation targets. With methane emissions reduced to 0.5% of throughput, energy efficiency must increase 35% to meet a 50% decarbonisation target.

Additive genetic and permanent environmental correlation between different parts of lactation in moderate and cold regions

The objective of this study was to investigate genotype by environment interaction as well as genetic parameters for somatic cell score (SCS) in first lactation Holstein cows in Iran. Data were collected by the National Animal Breeding Centre of Iran during 2003 to 2018. Data consisted of 1 031 885 SCS test-day records of 145 817 first lactation Holstein cows. Records were classified into the cold and moderate climate on data of synoptic stations. Variance components and genetic parameters were estimated using a random regression model and restricted maximum likelihood method. The analyses were performed using the AI-REML algorithm of the DMU package. The mean SCS was 1.859 (1.598) and 1.823 (1.522) for the cold and moderate climate, respectively. Genetic variance of SCS was lower than the corresponding permanent environmental variance. The permanent environmental variance in the moderate climate was higher than that of the cold climate during lactation. The highest values of heritability were observed in the early stage of lactation. However, the estimates of heritability during the lactation curve were low. The estimates of heritability for the entire 305-day lactation were higher in the cold climate than those in the moderate climate. Genetic correlation between the cold and moderate climate ranged from 0.25 to 0.81. The results indicated the existence of genotype × environment interaction and hence the need for different breeding program for SCS in the studied climates.

Locally Sustainable Biodiesel Production from Waste Cooking Oil and Grease Using a Deep Eutectic Solvent: Characterization, Thermal Properties, and Blend Performance.

As part of local sustainability efforts, biodiesel was synthesized via transesterification using a deep eutectic solvent (DES) without further washing from on-campus, dining facility waste cooking oil and grease. Before moving forward with repurposing used DES as a solvent in chemistry teaching labs, we determined the suitability of the biodiesel as an alternative fuel blended with diesel to power campus utility vehicles. Biodiesel components were characterized by gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC–MS), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H NMR), viscometer, differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), and evolved gas analysis during pyrolysis with a thermogravimetric analyzer coupled with FTIR (TGA-FTIR). The four major components of fatty acid methyl esters (FAMEs) in the biodiesel were methyl oleate, methyl linoleate, methyl palmitate, and methyl stearate. Kinematic viscosity over typical temperature ranges was within optimal values recommended by the American Biodiesel Standard (ASTM D6751), with a 30:70 biodiesel/diesel blend experimental viscosity of 3.43 cSt at 40 °C and a calculated viscosity of 10.13 cSt at 0 °C. The pure biodiesel’s cold-temperature onset of crystal formation is −10.1 °C versus −16.4 °C for a 30:70 biodiesel/diesel blend. Pyrolysis indicates good thermal stability, however, with an increased CO2 evolution in the blended fuel at higher temperatures as compared to that in the pure biodiesel and the pure diesel. Combustion gas analysis indicates virtually complete combustion of the blended fuel to CO2 and H2O with only trace amounts of CO. Overall results indicate that the biodiesel synthesized using DES is a suitable fuel for campus utility vehicles in the local moderate temperature climate and affords increased local sustainability by using used DES repurposed in our chemistry teaching labs.

Time series prediction of seasonal precipitation in Iran, using data-driven models: a comparison under different climatic conditions

Seasonal total precipitation is one of the important meteorological variables and its prediction is useful for the supply of water to different sectors. This study aims to compare Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System-Subtractive Clustering (ANFIS-SC), and ANFIS-Fuzzy Cluster Means (ANFIS-FCM) for the prediction of seasonal precipitation. The precipitation data were obtained for the 1951–2018 period from 8 stations located in different climatic zones of Iran. The stations and their climates are Anzali (per-humid moderate climate), Babolsar (humid moderate climate), Kermanshah (semi-arid cold climate), Shiraz (semi-arid moderate climate), Bushehr (arid warm climate), Shahroud (arid cold climate), Isfahan (extra-arid cold climate), and Zahedan (extra-arid moderate climate). The time-lagged precipitation as input for all models was chosen using the autocorrelation function (ACF), and the data were divided into two periods: 1951–2001 for training (75%) and 2002–2018 for testing (25%). Based on the evaluation criteria (root mean squared error [RMSE], normalized root mean squared error [NRMSE], Wilmott Index [WI], Akaike Information Criterion [AIC], and Bayesian Information Criterion [BIC]), results showed that the SARIMA stochastic model was more accurate than the artificial intelligence methods and had the least over- and under-estimations. MLs exhibited good prediction accuracy, but ANFIS-FCM had a little higher accuracy. Consequently, due to the high accuracy and simplicity, the stochastic model is reported as the best predictor for seasonal precipitation in all climates. In terms of the R2 values, the models showed better fitting in wet and normal years than in drought years. Further, the model predictions were more accurate in per-humid and humid areas than in arid and extra-arid climates. Also, the NRMSE values were in the range of 0.1 and 0.2, which indicated that SARIMA’s performance was medium and well. A significant result of this study was that results for different climates based on RMSE were completely opposite to those based on NRMSE, WI, and R2. This contrast was caused by the neglect of data range in the RMSE equation, so it is not a good choice to compare the results under different climates and it is better to use its normalized form “NRMSE.”