Policy Analysis Model Research Articles

Hero or Devil: A comparison of different carbon tax policies for China

A carbon tax is a promising environmental regulation. Given its heavy industrial base and substantial reliance on coal, China is under immense pressure to transition to greener energy systems. This paper enriches Annicchiarico and Di Dio’s (2015) dynamic general equilibrium model for environmental policy analysis by integrating a Schumpeterian innovation-driven clean energy transition that endogenizes the carbon intensity of energy inputs. We analyze the environmental, energy, economic, and social impacts of various hypothetical carbon taxes – including an energy excise tax on households, an emission tax on general producers, and an energy tax on energy suppliers – across different tax rates and subsidy strategies for both short-term and long-term effects. We show that: (i) by internalizing carbon intensity, a carbon tax can achieve a “quadruple dividend”, encompassing emission reduction, energy transition, economic growth, and welfare enhancement; (ii) the optimal carbon tax strategy, integrating both an emission tax and an energy tax, directs revenue towards supporting the clean energy transition; (iii) under a single environmental regime, a composite carbon tax exceeding 250 CNY/ton is optimal, while under multiple regimes, 25 CNY/ton suffices to reduce carbon emissions per unit of output by over 90%; (iv) despite their benefits, all carbon taxes compel firms to reorganize production, inevitably risking unemployment.

A Semi-Structural Model for Credit Cycle and Policy Analysis – An Application for Luxembourg

A Semi-Structural Model for Credit Cycle and Policy Analysis – An Application for Luxembourg

Keeping the Best of Two Worlds: Linking CGE and Microsimulation Models for Policy Analysis

Keeping the Best of Two Worlds: Linking CGE and Microsimulation Models for Policy Analysis

Oil price shocks and macroeconomic dynamics in resource-rich emerging economies under regime shifts

How do global oil price fluctuations affect macroeconomic activity and monetary policy in resource-rich emerging economies? This paper tackles this question by developing a unified emerging market/rest-of-the-world DSGE framework featuring Ricardian and Non-Ricardian households, an oil-producing sector, a fuel subsidy programme, and a regime-switching process. The model is estimated using Bayesian methods, allowing us to be agnostic regarding regime shifts in the monetary policy rule and oil price volatility. Using data for Nigeria, we find substantial empirical support for the regime-switching behaviour and discuss how macroeconomic implications of oil price shocks may vary depending on the nature of the shock, monetary policy responses, and the fuel subsidy policy in place. Apart from providing important insights into the monetary policy transmission mechanism, the paper offers a novel, flexible, and functional model for future policy analysis, especially in resource-rich emerging countries.

Policy Analysis for Building Resilience in the Maritime Area Through Bhakti Operations in Coastal Communities

Coastal areas have large potential economic resources and are full of problems that disturb and threaten the country's defense and security. So it is important to empower coastal communities as objects of non-military operations using various approaches. For this reason, this research aims to analyze policies for developing maritime area resilience (Bintahwilmar) through community service operations in coastal communities. This qualitative research with a descriptive analysis approach takes policy objects in the Pangkalan Utama V Surabaya area, and collects data through documents and interviews. Analysis was carried out using a data interpretation approach. The results of the policy analysis can explain that coastal area development requires a holistic and collaborative approach involving the government, Indonesian Navy, local communities and various related parties. Community welfare is an important aspect in developing coastal areas, including through renovation programs and building livable houses. Cooperation between the government and the Indonesian Navy is based on the principles of democracy, human rights, transparency, accountability, community participation and environmental sustainability between the East Java Provincial Government and the Indonesian Navy. An important finding from this research is that the principles and elements underlying Ansell Collaborative Governance demonstrate the relevance and applicability of policy analysis models in the context of coastal development.

Operationalizing Lasswell’s call for clarification of value goals: an equity-based approach to normative public policy analysis

In 1951, Harold Lasswell defined the ability to clarify value goals as integral to a policy analyst’s job. But graduate education in public policy analysis has paid insufficient attention to the skills needed to investigate and clarify value disputes. In turn, practicing policy analysts don’t have ready access to a set of methods for normative analysis that serves Lasswell’s vision of a contextualized, holistic, and interdisciplinary policy science. I start by describing calls for more emphasis on social equity in policy analysis and explore the complementary relationship of empirical, fact-based analysis and normative, value-driven analysis. I then propose seven competencies that policy analysts should be expected to master. They need to understand how normative issues arise in and adjacent to the classical model of policy analysis. They need to master a vocabulary for normative analysis and understand how humans make moral judgments, recognizing the distinction between moral rationalism and moral intuitionism. To engage in moral rationalism, practitioners need to be able to use the tools of analytic political philosophy. When it comes to moral intuitionism, they need to recognize the emotion-driven foundations of moral judgement and personal values. Finally, policy analysts also need to know where to find the values that are relevant to their analysis. Mastery of these competencies will allow analysts to better serve what Laswell describes as the intelligence needs of policymakers.

Development assistance, donor–recipient dynamic, and domestic policy: a case study of two health interventions supported by World Bank–UK and Global Fund in China

BackgroundThis study views sustainability after the exit of development assistance for health (DAH) as a shared responsibility between donors and recipients and sees transitioning DAH-supported interventions into domestic health policy as a pathway to this sustainability. It aims to uncover and understand the reemergent aspects of the donor–recipient dynamic in DAH and how they contribute to formulating domestic health policy and post-DAH sustainability.MethodsWe conducted a case study on two DAH-supported interventions: medical financial assistance in the Basic Health Services Project supported by the World Bank and UK (1998–2007) and civil society engagement in the HIV/AIDS Rolling Continuation Channel supported by the Global Fund (2010–2013) in China. From December 2021 to December 2022, we analyzed 129 documents and interviewed 46 key informants. Our data collection and coding were guided by a conceptual framework based on Walt and Gilson’s health policy analysis model and the World Health Organization’s health system building blocks. We used process tracing for analysis.ResultsAccording to the collected data, our case study identified three reemergent, interrelated aspects of donor–recipient dynamics: different preferences and compromise, partnership dialogues, and responsiveness to the changing context. In the case of medical financial assistance, the dynamic was characterized by long-term commitment to addressing local needs, on-site mutual learning and understanding, and local expertise cultivation and knowledge generation, enabling proactive responses to the changing context. In contrast, the dynamic in the case of HIV/AIDS civil society engagement marginalized genuine civil society engagement, lacked sufficient dialogue, and exhibited a passive response to the context. These differences led to varying outcomes in transnational policy diffusion and sustainability of DAH-supported interventions between the cases.ConclusionsGiven the similarities in potential alternative factors observed in the two cases, we emphasize the significance of the donor–recipient dynamic in transnational policy diffusion through DAH. The study implies that achieving post-DAH sustainability requires a balance between donor priorities and recipient ownership to address local needs, partnership dialogues for mutual understanding and learning, and collaborative international–domestic expert partnerships to identify and respond to contextual enablers and barriers.

수정 다중흐름모형과 옹호연합모형을 활용한 서울시립대 대학등록금 정책변동 분석

In this study, we employ an analytical framework that combines the modified multiple streams model, based on Kingdon’s original multiple streams framework with the advocacy coalition framework to investigate the agenda-setting and decision-making process of University of Seoul’s half-price tuition policy. We describe characteristics found within the debates concerning the abolition of this half-price tuition at the case institution. Central to our argument is the theoretical and conceptual validity of the modified multiple streams model when applied to real-world policy phenomena. In addition, we elucidate the changing patterns and reasons for change in advocacy coalition activities based on political streams. This study’s model proves beneficial for analyzing South Korea’s educational policy, especially as the modified multiple streams framework introduces a concept of political entrepreneurs that prior research did not highlight. We argue the need for a critical reflection on the traditional multiple stream framework’s concept of policy entrepreneurs in addition to that the explanatory power of the advocacy coalition model may diminish in contexts where political streams exert stronger influence than policy streams. Furthermore, it is essential to contextualize foreign-developed policy analysis models to fit South Korean circumstances and to adopt and utilize the concept of ‘entrepreneurship’ in a flexible and dynamic manner.

교사학습공동체 국내 연구 동향 재조명(2012-2022):Cooper, Fusarelli & Randall(2004)의 다차원적 정책분석틀을 중심으로

교사학습공동체 국내 연구 동향 재조명(2012-2022):Cooper, Fusarelli & Randall(2004)의 다차원적 정책분석틀을 중심으로

정부 시장격리가 쌀 수급에 미치는 사후영향평가

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of the government's implementation of the market isolation system related to the Grain Management Act on rice supply and demand and price and the government's fiscal expenditure. To achieve this purpose it was modeled with a structural equation system that reflects the causal relationship between economic variables that conforms to economic theory. In particular, the rice policy analysis model constructed in this study is a ex-post policy assessment model, and the analysis of the impact of government policy changes on the rices in harvest period and lean season before the next harvest by reflecting the price formation process by period in the model is different from previous studies. As a result of the analysis, the market isolation system was found to be effective in raising the selling price of farm households in line with the government's policy purpose. However, it was found that the government's fiscal expenditure increased due to the increase in rice purchase and management cost because of the increase in inventory. Furthermore it was analyzed that the government’s fiscal expenditure efficiency was reduced as the benefit-cost ratio of market isolation implementation was all less than 1. Since 2005, the government has operated a direct payment system and the target price has existed, so there are many limitations to positively evaluate the additional market isolation system. In the future, if the government’s market isolation policy is needed due to rapid price change, it is considered that in-depth research on inventory management and release plans will be needed to increase government fiscal efficiency.

Mitigating emissions in the global steel industry: Representing CCS and hydrogen technologies in integrated assessment modeling

We conduct a techno-economic assessment of two low-emissions steel production technologies and evaluate their deployment in emissions mitigation scenarios utilizing the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. Specifically, we assess direct reduced iron-electric arc furnace with carbon capture and storage (DRI-EAF with CCS) and H2-based direct reduced iron-electric arc furnace (H2 DRI-EAF) which utilizes low carbon hydrogen to reduce CO2 emissions. Our techno-economic analysis based on the current state of technologies found that DRI-EAF with CCS increased costs ∼7% relative to the conventional steel technology. H2 DRI-EAF increased costs by ∼18% when utilizing Blue hydrogen and ∼79% when using Green hydrogen. The exact pathways for hydrogen production in different world regions, including the extent of CCS and hydrogen deployment in steelmaking are highly speculative at this point. In illustrative scenarios using EPPA, we find that, using base cost assumptions, switching from BF-BOF to DRI-EAF or scrap EAF can provide significant emissions mitigation within steelmaking. With further reductions in the cost of advanced steelmaking, we find a greater role for DRI-EAF with CCS, whereas reductions in both the cost of advanced steelmaking and hydrogen production lead to a greater role for H2 DRI-EAF. Our findings can be used to help decision-makers assess various decarbonization options and design economically efficient pathways to reduce emissions in the steel industry. Our cost evaluation can also be used to inform other energy-economic and integrated assessment models designed to provide insights about future decarbonization pathways.

FINEX - A New Workhorse Model for Macroeconomic Forecasting and Policy Analysis

FINEX - A New Workhorse Model for Macroeconomic Forecasting and Policy Analysis

다차원 정책 분석 모형을 적용한 다문화교육정책 분석

This study attempted to explore the direction in which policies should proceed by comprehensively analyzing multicultural education policies using a multi-dimensional policy analysis model. To this end, the multicultural education support plan announced by the Ministry of Education from 2006 to 2023 was analyzed and literature analysis was conducted.As a result of the study, it was found that at the normative level, it contained policy values that emphasized the understanding and harmony of diversity and guaranteeing educational opportunities for multicultural students. The structural level analyzed the organizational structure and support system of the government, related ministries, and local multicultural education support centers that plan, operate, and manage multicultural education policies. At the compositional level, we looked at the participation and resistance of teachers, students, and parents who are school members to multicultural education policies. The technical level analyzed the institutional basis such as curriculum, teacher training and education, and budget for operating multicultural education policies.

MZ세대 학습자를 위한 메타버스 활용 영어과 교육과정의 적용 가능성 탐색

Objectives The purposes of this study were to explore the applicability of the Metaverse on 2022 revised English
 curriculum for generation MZ learners.
 Methods For the objectives of the study, the 2022 revised curriculum draft, the English department revised curriculum,
 the phased implementation plan for the full application of the 2025 high school credit system (Ministry
 of Education, 2021.8. 22.) and the National Education Council under the direct control of the President(2021.9.8.)
 were analyzed in the normative, structural, constitutional, technical, and ethical and social justice dimension,
 based on the four-dimensional policy analysis model of Copper at al.
 Results As a result of the analysis, the possibility of using metaverse in English classes for the MZ generation was
 found in the normative dimension. Limitations in using metaverse in English classes were the absence of educational
 metaverse platforms, lack of educational content available in metaverse, and cyber ethics and information
 utilization gaps. Institutional and administrative support to tackle these issues were found in the structural and
 technical dimension.
 Conclusions Metaverse can contribute to improving the “English Communication Competence,” which is the overall
 core competency of the 2022 revised English curriculum. Moreover, it has been confirmed that it enables
 English learning tailored to the characteristics of MZ generation learners. The study suggests The Minstry of
 Education, Korea Institute of Curriculum and Evaluation, and the Office of Education to give support and help in
 developing educational metaverse platforms and contents, cyber ethics and Digital Literacy education as well as
 in devising metaverse-mediated teaching and learning techniques for high school credit system and Digital
 Literacy.

Toward an Integrated Model for Public Technology Policy Analysis - a Taxonomy Useful for Determining Scope and Type of Analysis

How might the analysis of public technology policy be further systematised and made more objective so that important factors such as conscious subjects, interests, infl and prioritisation could better be taken into account by policy analysts and decision-makers? An integrated model designed to guide and structure the analysis process might comprise a solution to this problem. An adequately sophisticated yet concise and systematic framework of this sort would necessarily take into account the referential point of departure and alternative types of policy analysis as well as the nature, interests and priorities of those entities actually shaping public technology policy. The segment of the proposed integrated model and which is concerned with built-in assumptions about the nature of technological development has been covered in a previous article [1]. The purpose of the current article is to develop and present one further part or segment of an integrated model for public technology policy analysis (IMTPA) and to demonstrate its methodological and analytical utility with central policy analysis documents from Canada during the period 1990-2005. This article shall limit itself to a part of the IMTPA concerned with the type and scope of public technology policy analysis to be undertaken - a methodology which might better guide and make more transparent both the policies being examined as well as the policy analysis process itself.

Data use policies on state COVID-19 dashboards in the United States: Key characteristics, topical focus, and identifiable gaps

In this paper, we report the findings of an investigation into the data use policies published on the COVID-19 dashboards developed by the 50 state governments of the United States as well as the government of District of Columbia. Specifically, we examined the key attributes of the dashboard data notes, such as data source, update frequency, and data suppression disclaimers. We also studied the terms and phrases used, as well as topic themes of the data policy texts. Using a data policy analysis model, our results revealed a series of gaps and inconsistencies in the policy statements. Connecting these gaps and inconsistencies with potential problems that could violate individual Open Data Principles (ODP) and the FAIR principles, we made recommendations to help resolve these missing areas and fix the inconsistencies, so that open government data can be managed and used to further the very core of open data practice. Further research that we plan to carry out includes confirmation and validation of our analysis model and our approach of linking the examination and assessment of open data policy with ODP and the FAIR principles.

Factor-augmented QVAR models: an observation-driven approach

AbstractI develop and study a factor-augmented quasi-vector autoregressive (FAQVAR) model for economic policy analysis in tumultuous times. An observation-driven framework that exploits the information from the score of the model allows a maximum likelihood estimation. This multivariate FAQVAR model, which assumes a Student t error distribution, is robust to atypical observations such as the global financial crisis and the recent pandemic. The model outperforms the FAVAR moving average model because of the assumed heavy tails that capture the COVID-19 atypical data and other turbulent episodes. An empirical application to the U.S. economy assessing its monetary policy reveals that estimates and impulse responses are stable when considering the sample before and during COVID-19.

Analytical Model for Sparing Policy Analysis and Optimization for Space Habitat Operations

The inclusion of operational sparing policies in early system definition can ensure that spares’ allocations can optimally meet desired system reliabilities consistent with the planned maintenance of a crewed vehicle. This approach is critical for long-duration crewed missions where mass allocations are constrained and lack of safe abort contingencies limit options in the event of significant system degradation, especially in the environmental control and life support systems. This paper presents an analytical model for analyzing and optimizing sparing policies as part of an overall evaluation of the probability of sufficiency for a system configuration. The repair transition parameters are varied to change the state visitation probabilities that drive a change in the probability of sufficiency observed for a given mass allocation. These parameters are optimized using a particle swarm optimizer to identify the preferred strategy for a desired allocation mass.

A Long War and a Short Temper: A Bureaucratic Politics Analysis of the Trump Administration’s Policy in Afghanistan

ABSTRACT During the 2016 presidential campaign, Donald Trump made clear that he loathed the nation-building missions that previous administrations had initiated and continued; chief among them was the then 15-year-old war in Afghanistan. Despite his oft-stated desire to end the war, during his first year in office, Trump decided to maintain the U.S. presence in Afghanistan and added thousands more soldiers to the conflict. Later in his term, the U.S. signed a peace agreement with the Taliban and began a phased withdrawal in 2020. However, when Trump left office in January 2021, 2,500 U.S. soldiers remained in Afghanistan. To explain the gap between the President’s clearly stated preferences and U.S. policy, I employ the bureaucratic politics model of foreign policy analysis. I examine two crucial intra-administration debates over the future of the U.S. presence in Afghanistan. The first occurred in 2017 when the new President ordered a comprehensive review of U.S. involvement in Afghanistan. The second covers the period from 2018–2020, when the Administration pivoted to seeking a diplomatic solution to the conflict and debated the pace of U.S. withdrawals. In both instances, I find that members of the President’s national security team successfully persuaded the President that the political and strategic risks of a total withdrawal from Afghanistan were prohibitively high.

Medical Aid in Dying: How Might U.S. Policy Prevent Suffering at the End of Life?

ABSTRACT Medical aid in dying refers to policies that allow terminally ill patients to seek assistance from their medical providers to obtain medications to hasten death. In this paper, we used a 7-point policy analysis model to examine the diversity of medical aid in dying policies that exist in jurisdictions (states and territories) in the U.S. and the implications of these policies for suffering at end of life. As of this writing, these practices are available in 12 jurisdictions, including 11 states and the District of Columbia. Legalization has occurred via statutory approaches in 10 jurisdictions and permissive approaches in two jurisdictions. We discuss the structures of these laws, the requirements for participation, and the limitations created by having jurisdiction-specific policies on such broad, bioethical issues. Existing laws appear to relieve suffering in patients at end of life. Jurisdictional differences create barriers to comprehensive expansion but provide insights into practice in different contexts.