정부 시장격리가 쌀 수급에 미치는 사후영향평가

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of the government's implementation of the market isolation system related to the Grain Management Act on rice supply and demand and price and the government's fiscal expenditure. To achieve this purpose it was modeled with a structural equation system that reflects the causal relationship between economic variables that conforms to economic theory. In particular, the rice policy analysis model constructed in this study is a ex-post policy assessment model, and the analysis of the impact of government policy changes on the rices in harvest period and lean season before the next harvest by reflecting the price formation process by period in the model is different from previous studies. As a result of the analysis, the market isolation system was found to be effective in raising the selling price of farm households in line with the government's policy purpose. However, it was found that the government's fiscal expenditure increased due to the increase in rice purchase and management cost because of the increase in inventory. Furthermore it was analyzed that the government’s fiscal expenditure efficiency was reduced as the benefit-cost ratio of market isolation implementation was all less than 1. Since 2005, the government has operated a direct payment system and the target price has existed, so there are many limitations to positively evaluate the additional market isolation system. In the future, if the government’s market isolation policy is needed due to rapid price change, it is considered that in-depth research on inventory management and release plans will be needed to increase government fiscal efficiency.