Migration Model Research Articles

Improving on Complexity: Ideas for Enhancing Quantitative Modeling of Climate Mobility

AbstractQuantitative climate mobility research has, so far, focused primarily on climate change impacts on migration outcomes. This focus has led to a separation between quantitative climate migration research and the broader field of migration studies. In this paper ways are proposed for quantitative research to better address the complexity in the relationship between climate change and mobility. First technical suggestions are presented to improve upon migration model setups and designs and highlight promising developments. Then it is argued that quantitative methodologies can broaden the scope of research inquiries by examining how climate mitigation and adaptation efforts influence mobility, as well as assessing how mobility itself impacts vulnerability.

A simple active fluid model unites cytokinesis, cell crawling, and axonal outgrowth.

Axonal outgrowth, cell crawling, and cytokinesis utilize actomyosin, microtubule-based motors, cytoskeletal dynamics, and substrate adhesions to produce traction forces and bulk cellular motion. While it has long been appreciated that growth cones resemble crawling cells and that the mechanisms that drive cytokinesis help power cell crawling, they are typically viewed as unique processes. To better understand the relationship between these modes of motility, here, we developed a unified active fluid model of cytokinesis, amoeboid migration, mesenchymal migration, neuronal migration, and axonal outgrowth in terms of cytoskeletal flow, adhesions, viscosity, and force generation. Using numerical modeling, we fit subcellular velocity profiles of the motions of cytoskeletal structures and docked organelles from previously published studies to infer underlying patterns of force generation and adhesion. Our results indicate that, during cytokinesis, there is a primary converge zone at the cleavage furrow that drives flow towards it; adhesions are symmetric across the cell, and as a result, cells are stationary. In mesenchymal, amoeboid, and neuronal migration, the site of the converge zone shifts, and differences in adhesion between the front and back of the cell drive crawling. During neuronal migration and axonal outgrowth, the primary convergence zone lies within the growth cone, which drives actin retrograde flow in the P-domain and bulk anterograde flow of the axonal shaft. They differ in that during neuronal migration, the cell body is weakly attached to the substrate and thus moves forward at the same velocity as the axon. In contrast, during axonal outgrowth, the cell body strongly adheres to the substrate and remains stationary, resulting in a decrease in flow velocity away from the growth cone. The simplicity with which cytokinesis, cell crawling, and axonal outgrowth can be modeled by varying coefficients in a simple model suggests a deep connection between them.

Building an open-source collaborative platform for migration research: A metadata modeling approach using XML

Public access to well-organized migration data repositories is rare. While open migration data are available, most are dispersed, challenging their organization. This work uses a metadata modeling approach to organize migration-related data and research components hosted in an open-source, collaborative research environment. The proposed platform integrates data, computational models, application libraries, and research projects in a unified environment for research. An overview of the metadata modeling process and the XML technology used to integrate the platform components was provided, along with descriptions of the platform’s essential features, such as standardized exchange of information for data organization and sharing and collaborative authoring. The design of a prototype collaborative, open-source migration data and modeling research platform using sample data and software components was built and hosted on GitHub for testing and refinement purposes. It allows the authors to collaborate, improve, and assess the platform’s functionalities and capabilities. Our platform, COSMOS (Collaborative Open-Source Modeling System), adopted the creation and use of open data formats for alignment with FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) data principles to ensure that data at the prototype level is consistent with and can be used by the international migration research community in the future. By providing a standardized framework for data organization, data sharing, and collaboration, the platform can help accelerate scientific discovery and advance our understanding of complex social and cultural phenomena such as immigration.

Exploration indication of hidden gold deposits using the fine-grained soil prospecting method and its nano-micron metal migration evidence in the alluvial soil covered area, Jiaodong

Jiaodong stands out among three global provinces boasting gold reserves surpassing 5000 tons. As geological exploration in the region continues to rise, the significance of deep and covered areas in Jiaodong for ore prospecting becomes increasingly evident. In this study, a Fine-grained soil prospecting method was employed in the Qujia hidden gold deposit and its surrounding region, situated in Yantai City, Shandong Province, and concealed by alluvial soil. The gold (Au) content exhibited a high enrichment level, and the range of Au and silver (Ag) geochemical anomalies demonstrated a robust correlation with known hidden orebodies. Furthermore, transmission electron microscopy and nano-CT were utilized to identify nano-micron metal particles and micro-fractures in the wall rock. A hereditary relationship between the nano-micron metal particles of ore-forming elements present in surface media and the deep orebody was observed. A migration model detailing the movement of deep ore-forming materials in the form of nano-micron metal particles, governed by a multi-agent relay dominated by ascending geogas flow, was established in the Qujia gold deposit in Jiaodong. These findings contribute theoretical support for the fine-grained soil prospecting method in geochemical exploration within alluvial soil covered areas.

Stochastic model for migration and breakage of detrital and authigenic fines

Mobilisation of attached particles during flow in rocks occurs in geo-energy processes. Particle mobilisation, their migration through rocks and pore plugging yield significant decline in permeability and well injectivity and productivity. While much is currently known about the underlying mechanisms governing the detachment of detrital particles against attracting electrostatic forces, a critical gap exists in the theoretical understanding of detachment by breakage of widely spread authigenic particles, which naturally grow on rock grains during geological times. Previous works derived micro-scale mechanical equilibrium equations for both detrital and authigenic particles, and the upscaling procedure from particle to pore and core scales for detrital fines. In this paper, for the first time we derive a stochastic model for migration and breakage of authigenic fines and authigenic–detrital mixtures. This allows for core-scale transport modelling based on the particle-scale torque balance. We introduce a novel framework for predictive stochastic detachment modelling by particle–rock bond breakage that integrates the beam theory of elastic particle deformation, strength failure criteria and viscous flow around the attached particle. The analytical expressions for stress maxima and stress diagrams for a single particle allow determining the critical failure stresses, breakage points of the beam and breakage flow velocity. The mathematical model describing lab coreflood includes the maximum retention function for both authigenic and detrital fines. The matching laboratory coreflood data under increasing velocity at micro- and core-scales achieved high matching of the experimental data by the model. High matching validates the upscaling and downscaling procedures derived.

Simulation Study of Coal Seam Gas Extraction Characteristics Based on Coal Permeability Evolution Model under Thermal Effect.

The permeability evolution law of high temperature and high stress coal seam is determined by the influence of multiphase coexistence and multifield coupling. In an environment greatly affected by disturbance and high temperature, the coal permeability model under the coupling of thermal and mechanical creep is not only a vital framework from which to examine gas migration law in multiphase and multifield coal seams but also an important theoretical foundation for gas control in coal seams. The influence of high-temperature environment on creep deformation and permeability is analyzed by several creep seepage tests under different temperature conditions.A mathematical model for the evolution of coal permeability considering the influence of temperature is established through the theory of matrix-crack interaction based on gas adsorption and desorption and thermal expansion deformation. Based on the permeability model under the coupling of thermal and mechanical creep, the numerical model of gas migration, seepage field, diffusion field, stress field, and temperature field is constructed, and the law of gas migration in coal seam under multifield coupling is explored. The influence law of thermal effect on gas extraction characteristics is analyzed, in which the time-varying mechanism of temperature field, the relationship between creep deformation and temperature and pressure, the influence of creep deformation on permeability, the dynamic distribution of gas pressure, and the change of gas extraction quantity are described in detail. It is concluded that the influence of temperature on permeability is much greater than that of creep deformation and that a high initial coal seam temperature is beneficial to gas extraction. It provides theoretical basis and technical guidance for the study of multifield coupled gas migration and coal seam gas treatment.

The spatio-temporal variation of exhumation and its impacts on the resource distribution in the Northern Carnarvon Basin, Australia

Deformation and rock fracture during exhumation can enhance rock porosity and permeability, thereby improving fluid migration through reservoirs and destroying seal integrity in caprocks. Therefore, analysing the spatio-temporal distribution of exhumation in connection to fluid migration models can be crucial for energy resource exploration and storage. Geological and geophysical evidence suggests that parts of the Northern Carnarvon Basin (NCB) were exhumed. However, the spatio-temporal distribution of this exhumation and its impacts on the region's resource distribution is yet to be established. We analysed porosity, sonic logs and paleotemperature data from 210 boreholes using compaction and vitrinite reflectance analysis techniques to constrain the spatio-temporal distribution of exhumation and its correlation to the region's resource distribution. We discovered that multiple exhumation phases occurred since the Late Triassic. The highest exhumation occurred in the Mid Jurassic, where approximately 1000 m of sediment thickness was eroded from the western and southwestern parts of the Exmouth Plateau. Exhumation at this time spatially correlates with magmatic intrusions in the NCB, and paleotemperature profiles indicate that sediments in the exhumed regions were partly heated by increased paleo-basal heat flow, suggesting that magmatic bodies through underplating and crustal intrusions were the primary causes of this exhumation. Another significant exhumation phase occurred in the Early Cretaceous, removing ∼800 m of sediments from the Exmouth, Barrow and Dampier Sub-basins. Depth-dependent extension events and magmatic intrusions possibly caused exhumation at this time. Significant exhumation ceased in the Early Cretaceous, and our study has established that the exhumation episodes in the NCB were part of large-scale regional events that affected the Australian Northwest Shelf. Combining results from different estimation techniques increased the spatio-temporal coverage of the analysis and improved the precision and accuracy of exhumation results.

Geomorphic risk maps for river migration using probabilistic modeling – a framework

Abstract. Lateral migration of meandering rivers poses erosional risks to human settlements, roads, and infrastructure in alluvial floodplains. While there is a large body of scientific literature on the dominant mechanisms driving river migration, it is still not possible to accurately predict river meander evolution over multiple years. This is in part because we do not fully understand the relative contribution of each mechanism and because deterministic mathematical models are not equipped to account for stochasticity in the system. Besides, uncertainty due to model structure deficits and unknown parameter values remains. For a more reliable assessment of risks, we therefore need probabilistic forecasts. Here, we present a workflow to generate geomorphic risk maps for river migration using probabilistic modeling. We start with a simple geometric model for river migration, where nominal migration rates increase with local and upstream curvature. We then account for model structure deficits using smooth random functions. Probabilistic forecasts for river channel position over time are generated by Monte Carlo runs using a distribution of model parameter values inferred from satellite data. We provide a recipe for parameter inference within the Bayesian framework. We demonstrate that such risk maps are relatively more informative in avoiding false negatives, which can be both detrimental and costly, in the context of assessing erosional hazards due to river migration. Our results show that with longer prediction time horizons, the spatial uncertainty of erosional hazard within the entire channel belt increases – with more geographical area falling within 25 % < probability < 75 %. However, forecasts also become more confident about erosion for regions immediately in the vicinity of the river, especially on its cut-bank side. Probabilistic modeling thus allows us to quantify our degree of confidence – which is spatially and temporally variable – in river migration forecasts. We also note that to increase the reliability of these risk maps, we need to describe the first-order dynamics in our model to a reasonable degree of accuracy, and simple geometric models do not always possess such accuracy.

Effects of Euphorbia characias subsp. characias flower extracts on nociceptive pain and acute inflammatory models in mice

Pain and inflammation are major health issues worldwide, leading to negative consequences. Despite several drugs being available to manage these conditions, their effectiveness can be limited by cost, adverse reactions, and potential tolerance and dependence with long-term use. Euphorbia characias traditionally used in folk medicine for its diverse biological activities - including antiproliferative, antimicrobial, and anti-inflammatory effects - has not been extensively studied in vivo for its analgesic and anti-inflammatory properties. In this study, the antinociceptive and anti-inflammatory properties of the water and ethanolic extracts of E. characias flowers (ECAEFl and ECEEFl) were evaluated using various models. Both extracts significantly reduced paw licking time in a formalin-induced paw licking model, with ECAEFl specifically targeting and ECEEFl affecting both the neurogenic and inflammatory phases. Additionally, in the carrageenan-induced cell migration model, both extracts showed a significant decrease in leukocyte migration, protein extravasation and nitric oxide levels, further demostrating their anti-inflammatory activity. High-Resolution HPLC-ESI-QTOF-MS-MS and HPLC-PDA analysis characterized the chemical composition of the extracts, identifying a significant presence of phenolic compounds, particularly quercetin and its derivatives, which likely contribute to the observed biological activities. These findings highlight the potential of E. characias extracts as natural sources of compounds with antinociceptive and anti-inflammatory properties. Further investigations are needed to elucidate the underlying mechanisms and explore their therapeutic potential in pain and inflammation-related disorders.

A novel equivalent model of radionuclide migration in three-dimensional rough shear fractures

Accurate prediction of radionuclide distribution in fractured rock mass is a key problem in high-level radioactive waste disposal engineering. However, it is inappropriate to directly regard rough fractures as smooth fractures when predicting radionuclide migration in real fractured rock masses. In this study, the characteristics of radionuclide migration in three-dimensional rough shear fractures are numerically analyzed considering the influence of fracture roughness, aperture distribution, contact ratios, and adsorption. Different fracture contact ratios and aperture distributions are realized by shearing two rough fracture surfaces. Based on the study, we found that the influence of surface contact is greater than that of surface roughness and aperture distribution on radionuclide migration in rough fractures with the same initial fracture aperture under laminar flow. The phenomena of dominant migration channels and low-velocity dispersion zones are observed for radionuclide dispersion in rough fractures containing contact areas. The higher the contact ratio, the more obvious this phenomenon. The breakthrough and steady state times of radionuclide are also significantly affected by the contact ratio. The higher the contact ratio, the shorter the breakthrough time, and the longer the duration from the breakthrough time to the steady state time. Adsorption delays the overall process of the radionuclide migration and prolongs the duration between the breakthrough time and the steady state time. A novel equivalent method of the radionuclide migration in rough shear fractures is proposed based on the study of radionuclide transport in rough fractures. In the proposed equivalent method, an adjustment coefficient for the transport velocity and a longitudinal dispersion coefficient for the rough fracture are defined to connect rough fractures and the corresponding smooth fractures with the same fracture aperture. The influence regularity of fracture contact and adsorption on the two defined coefficients is obtained based on over 400 numerical simulations. The specific formulas of the two coefficients are given based on the form of the analytical solution for the radionuclide transport in a smooth fracture. The dispersion coefficient and transport velocity in a rough fracture are equivalent to the dispersion coefficient and transport velocity in a smooth fracture and the fluctuation term affected by fracture surface contact and adsorption, respectively. It was verified that the equivalent model has higher accuracy, which can help characterize radionuclide migration in 3D rough fractures efficiently and precisely.

A Eulerian-Lagrangian model for simulating fish pathline distributions in vertical slot fishways

Recovery of the river connectivity relies on the application of structural and non-structural solutions. Within the structural solutions, vertical slot fishways (VSF) are most popular, but achieving the desired efficiency remains a challenge. To this end, evaluation of both biological and hydraulic efficiency is imperative. A Eulerian Lagrangian Agent Based Model (ELAM) of fish upstream migration through VSFs is presented in this work that considers one passive and three active behaviors affecting fish swimming pathlines of bighead carps (Hypophthalmichthys nobilis) and silver carps (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix). The passive behavior consists in a 2-D random walk where no external stimuli are detected. The first active behavior represents fish attraction to a nearby flow region as a Gaussian distribution function of turbulent kinetic energy, velocity magnitude and velocity strain rate. The second active behavior represents wall collision avoidance, whereas the third considers the tendency of the fish to escape from high velocity zones. Stochasticity is considered in the model to represent the dispersion in the experimental pathlines. The ELAM is tested for two different VSF configurations and is found to well reproduce the experimental pathlines, particularly when the escaping response to high velocity zones is considered. Results show that the ELAM model can be used as an appropriate tool for modelers and designers to evaluate fish passage efficiency.

Dual-Porosity Apparent Permeability Models of Unconventional Gas Migration Based on Biot’s Porous Media

Dual-Porosity Apparent Permeability Models of Unconventional Gas Migration Based on Biot’s Porous Media

Quantifying cell cycle regulation by tissue crowding

The spatiotemporal coordination and regulation of cell proliferation is fundamental in many aspects of development and tissue maintenance. Cells have the ability to adapt their division rates in response to mechanical constraints, yet we do not fully understand how cell proliferation regulation impacts cell migration phenomena. Here, we present a minimal continuum model of cell migration with cell cycle dynamics, which includes density-dependent effects and hence can account for cell proliferation regulation. By combining minimal mathematical modeling, Bayesian inference, and recent experimental data, we quantify the impact of tissue crowding across different cell cycle stages in epithelial tissue expansion experiments. Our model suggests that cells sense local density and adapt cell cycle progression in response, during G1 and the combined S/G2/M phases, providing an explicit relationship between each cell-cycle-stage duration and local tissue density, which is consistent with several experimental observations. Finally, we compare our mathematical model’s predictions to different experiments studying cell cycle regulation and present a quantitative analysis on the impact of density-dependent regulation on cell migration patterns. Our work presents a systematic approach for investigating and analyzing cell cycle data, providing mechanistic insights into how individual cells regulate proliferation, based on population-based experimental measurements.

Migrants at Sea: Unintended Consequences of Search and Rescue Operations

Many countries are facing and resisting strong migratory pressure, fueling irregular migration. In response to mounting deaths in the Central Mediterranean, European nations intensified rescue operations in 2013. We develop a model of irregular migration to identify the effects of these operations. We find that smugglers responded by sending boats in adverse weather and utilizing flimsy rafts, thus inducing more crossings in dangerous conditions and ultimately offsetting intended safety benefits due to moral hazard. Despite the increased risk, these operations likely increased aggregate migrant welfare; nevertheless, a more successful policy should instead restrict supply of rafts and expand legal alternatives. (JEL D82, J15, J18, K37, K42)

Discrete and continuous mathematical models of sharp-fronted collective cell migration and invasion.

Mathematical models describing the spatial spreading and invasion of populations of biological cells are often developed in a continuum modelling framework using reaction-diffusion equations. While continuum models based on linear diffusion are routinely employed and known to capture key experimental observations, linear diffusion fails to predict well-defined sharp fronts that are often observed experimentally. This observation has motivated the use of nonlinear degenerate diffusion; however, these nonlinear models and the associated parameters lack a clear biological motivation and interpretation. Here, we take a different approach by developing a stochastic discrete lattice-based model incorporating biologically inspired mechanisms and then deriving the reaction-diffusion continuum limit. Inspired by experimental observations, agents in the simulation deposit extracellular material, which we call a substrate, locally onto the lattice, and the motility of agents is taken to be proportional to the substrate density. Discrete simulations that mimic a two-dimensional circular barrier assay illustrate how the discrete model supports both smooth and sharp-fronted density profiles depending on the rate of substrate deposition. Coarse-graining the discrete model leads to a novel partial differential equation (PDE) model whose solution accurately approximates averaged data from the discrete model. The new discrete model and PDE approximation provide a simple, biologically motivated framework for modelling the spreading, growth and invasion of cell populations with well-defined sharp fronts. Open-source Julia code to replicate all results in this work is available on GitHub.

The diaspora model for human migration.

Migration's impact spans various social dimensions, including demography, sustainability, politics, economy, and gender disparities. Yet, the decision-making process behind migrants choosing their destination remains elusive. Existing models primarily rely on population size and travel distance to explain the spatial patterns of migration flows, overlooking significant population heterogeneities. Paradoxically, migrants often travel long distances and to smaller destinations if their diaspora is present in those locations. To address this gap, we propose the diaspora model of migration, incorporating intensity (the number of people moving to a country), and assortativity (the destination within the country). Our model considers only the existing diaspora sizes in the destination country, influencing the probability of migrants selecting a specific residence. Despite its simplicity, our model accurately reproduces the observed stable flow and distribution of migration in Austria (postal code level) and US metropolitan areas, yielding precise estimates of migrant inflow at various geographic scales. Given the increase in international migrations, this study enlightens our understanding of migration flow heterogeneities, helping design more inclusive, integrated cities.

Relative Occurrence Rate between Hot and Cold Jupiters as an Indicator to Probe Planet Migration

We propose a second-order statistic parameter ε, the relative occurrence rate between hot Jupiters (HJs) and cold Jupiters (CJs) (ε = η HJ/η CJ), to probe the migration of gas giants. Since the planet occurrence rate is the combined outcome of the formation and migration processes, a joint analysis of HJ and CJ frequency may shed light on the dynamical evolution of giant planet systems. We first investigate the behavior of ε as the stellar mass changes observationally. Based on the occurrence rate measurements of HJs (η HJ) from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite survey and CJs (η CJ) from the California Legacy Survey, we find a tentative trend (97% confidence) that ε drops when the stellar mass rises from 0.8 to 1.4 M ⊙, which can be explained by different giant planet growth and disk migration timescales around different stars. We carry out planetesimal and pebble accretion simulations, both of which can reproduce the results of η HJ, η CJ, and ε. Our findings indicate that the classical core accretion + disk migration model can explain the observed decreasing trend of ε. We propose two ways to increase the significance of the trend and verify the anticorrelation. Future works are required to better constrain ε, especially for M dwarfs and for more massive stars.

Where Are the Water Worlds? Identifying Exo-water-worlds Using Models of Planet Formation and Atmospheric Evolution

Planet formation models suggest that the small exoplanets that migrate from beyond the snowline of the protoplanetary disk likely contain water-ice-rich cores (∼50% by mass), also known as water worlds. While the observed radius valley of the Kepler planets is well explained by the atmospheric dichotomy of the rocky planets, precise measurements of the mass and radius of the transiting planets hint at the existence of these water worlds. However, observations cannot confirm the core compositions of those planets, owing to the degeneracy between the density of a bare water-ice-rich planet and the bulk density of a rocky planet with a thin atmosphere. We combine different formation models from the Genesis library with atmospheric escape models, such as photoevaporation and impact stripping, to simulate planetary systems consistent with the observed radius valley. We then explore the possibility of water worlds being present in the currently observed sample by comparing them with simulated planets in the mass–radius–orbital period space. We find that the migration models suggest ≳10% and ≳20% of the bare planets, i.e., planets without primordial H/He atmospheres, to be water-ice-rich around G- and M-type host stars, respectively, consistent with the mass–radius distributions of the observed planets. However, most of the water worlds are predicted to be outside a period of 10 days. A unique identification of water worlds through radial velocity and transmission spectroscopy is likely to be more successful when targeting such planets with longer orbital periods.

Enhancing the Uniformity of a Memristor Using a Bilayer Dielectric Structure.

Resistive random access memory (RRAM) holds great promise for in-memory computing, which is considered the most promising strategy for solving the von Neumann bottleneck. However, there are still significant problems in its application due to the non-uniform performance of RRAM devices. In this work, a bilayer dielectric layer memristor was designed based on the difference in the Gibbs free energy of the oxide. We fabricated Au/Ta2O5/HfO2/Ta/Pt (S3) devices with excellent uniformity. Compared with Au/HfO2/Pt (S1) and Au/Ta2O5/Pt (S2) devices, the S3 device has a low reset voltage fluctuation of 2.44%, and the resistive coefficients of variation are 13.12% and 3.84% in HRS and LRS, respectively, over 200 cycles. Otherwise, the bilayer device has better linearity and more conductance states in multi-state regulation. At the same time, we analyze the physical mechanism of the bilayer device and provide a physical model of ion migration. This work provides a new idea for designing and fabricating resistive devices with stable performance.

UKRAINIAN FORCED MIGRANTS’ INTEGRATION IN EUROPEAN LABOUR MARKET: GERMAN VS POLISH CASE

The tsunami of forced migration caused by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 poses a significant challenge to the socio-economic systems of host European countries, in particular Germany and Poland, which are the two main destination countries for displaced Ukrainians. Despite relatively similar statistics on the number and demographic structure of Ukrainian forced immigrants, the two countries differ significantly in terms of the level of labour market integration of refugees, which is a key factor determining their social integration and economic outcomes. The purpose of this paper is to study the peculiarities and common features of the integration of Ukrainian forced migrants in the labour markets of Germany and Poland, taking into account the pre-war experience of these countries in attracting Ukrainian economic migrants. Methodology. The study is a comparative analysis of the pre-war and forced migration trajectories of the two countries based on data from the German and Polish statistical services and Eurostat in 2010-2022. Results. The article discusses the redistribution of the main demographic characteristics in the profile of Ukrainian migrants in the post-war period, which led to an increase in the share of women with higher education in the demographic structure of migrants. These demographic differences, coupled with the peculiarities of European labour markets, have affected the employment prospects of Ukrainian refugees in European countries of destination. The pre-war experience of temporary labour migration from Ukraine and social ties between refugees and members of the diaspora were recognised as factors that facilitated the integration of Ukrainian refugees. The analysis showed that in addition to the geographical and cultural proximity between Ukraine and Poland, the circular labour migration model that dominated relations between Ukraine and Poland contributed to the rapid integration of Ukrainian refugees into the labour market after the outbreak of full-scale war. The lack of German language skills is the most common reason for the lower participation of Ukrainians in the German labour market compared to the Polish one. In Germany, favourable labour market conditions combined with integration policies facilitate access to the labour market for Ukrainian refugees in the long term. Practical implications. By examining the previous circular seasonal migration of Ukrainians over the past decade and their labour market integration in specific destination countries after the outbreak of war, this paper provides a broader perspective for the study of the transition from forced to permanent migration. Value/Originality. Given the global growth of both seasonal labour migrants and forms of movement, the key findings of the study provide a better understanding of these changing categories of mobility and their implications.