Glacial Isostatic Adjustment Models Research Articles

Modeled and Observed Bedrock Displacements in North‐East Greenland Using Refined Estimates of Present‐Day Ice‐Mass Changes and Densified GNSS Measurements

AbstractModels of the glacial‐isostatic adjustment (GIA) to past ice‐mass changes exhibit large differences in north‐east Greenland owing to insufficient knowledge about glacial history and Earth rheology. The GIA uncertainties feed back to uncertainties in present‐day mass‐balance estimates from satellite gravimetry. Geodetic Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measurements allow to directly observe displacement of bedrock. We present results from repeated and continuous GNSS measurements conducted within five measurement campaigns between 2008 and 2017. We used the observed uplift rates to validate different GIA models in conjunction with estimates of the elastic response of the solid Earth to present‐day ice‐mass changes. To determine present‐day ice‐mass changes and the associated elastic deformations, we combined satellite altimetry data from CryoSat‐2 with satellite gravimetry data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment for the entire Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and included peripheral glaciers and ice caps. The different GIA models were consistently used in all processing steps. The GNSS measurements in north‐east Greenland revealed uplift rates in the range of 2.8 to 8.9 mm yr−1. The comparison of the total displacement predicted by GIA and elastic modeling with the GNSS‐based displacement clearly favors GIA models that show low rates (0.7–4.4 mm yr−1 at the GNSS sites) against GIA models with higher rates of up to 8.3 mm yr−1. The correction due to the favored GIA model in north‐east Greenland results in an ice‐mass loss of 233 ± 43 Gt yr−1 for the GrIS including peripheral glaciers over the period July 2010 to June 2017.

Strain Accumulation and Release Rate in Canada: Implications for Long‐Term Crustal Deformation and Earthquake Hazards

AbstractTo advance the understanding of crustal deformation and earthquake hazards in Canada, we analyze seismic and geodetic data sets and robustly estimate the crust strain accumulation and release rate by earthquakes. We find that less than 20% of the accumulated strain is released by earthquakes across the study area providing evidence for large‐scale aseismic deformation. We attribute this to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in eastern Canada, where predictions from the GIA model account for most of the observed discrepancy between the seismic and the geodetic moment rates. In western Canada, only a small percentage (<20%) of the discrepancy can be attributed to GIA‐related deformation. We suspect that this may reflect the inaccuracy of the GIA model to account for heterogeneity in Earth structure or indicate that the present‐day effect of GIA in western Canada is limited due to the fast response of the upper mantle to the deglaciation of the Cordillera Ice Sheet. At locations of previously identified seismic source zones, we speculate that the unreleased strain is been stored cumulatively in the crust and will be released as earthquakes in the future. The Gutenberg‐Richter model predicts, however, that the recurrence interval can vary significantly in Canada, ranging from decades near plate boundary zones in the west to thousands of years in the stable continental interior. Our attempt to quantify the GIA‐induced deformation provides the necessary first step for the integration of geodetic strain rates in seismic hazard analysis in Canada.

Secular polar motion observed by GRACE

A long-term drift in polar motion (PM) has been observed for more than a century, and Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) has been understood as an important cause. However, observed PM includes contributions from other sources, including contemporary climate change and perhaps others associated with Earth’s interior dynamics. It has been difficult to separate these effects, because there is considerable scatter among GIA models concerning predicted PM rates. Here we develop a new method to estimate GIA PM using data from the GRACE mission. Changes in GRACE degree 2, order 1 spherical harmonic coefficients are due both to GIA and contemporary surface mass load changes. We estimate the surface mass load contribution to degree 2, order 1 coefficients using GRACE data, relying on higher-degree GRACE coefficients that are dominantly affected by surface loads. Then the GIA PM trend is obtained from the difference between observed PM trend (which includes effects from GIA and surface mass loads) and the estimated PM trend mostly associated with surface mass loads. A previous estimate of the GIA PM trend from PM observations for the period 1900–1978 is toward 79.90° W at a speed of 3.53 mas/year (10.91 cm/year). Our new estimate for the GIA trend is in a direction of 61.77° W at a speed of 2.18 mas/year (6.74 cm/year), similar to the observed PM trend during the early twentieth century. This is consistent with the view that the early twentieth-century trend was dominated by GIA and that more recently there is an increasing contribution from contemporary surface mass load redistribution associated with climate change. Our GIA PM also agrees with the linear mean pole during 1900–2017. Contributions from other solid Earth process such as mantle convection would also produce a linear trend in PM and could be included in our GIA estimate.

Mapping terrestrial water storage changes in Canada using GRACE and GRACE-FO.

This study focused upon the estimation and analysis of terrestrial water storage (TWS changes) across the Canadian landscape. The estimation was performed using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data from April 2002 to June 2017, and GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) observations from June 2018 to December 2019. Removing the gravity effects of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) signals and leakage is required to have realistic estimations of TWS changes in the Canadian landmass. In this study, GIA correction was based on a regional-scale modeling of uplift rate. To evaluate the performance compared to the latest GIA models, a comparison was made to uplift rate derived from 149 GPS stations over the study area. Refined TWS changes showed strong seasonal patterns (between -160mm and 80mm). The slope of the trend was positive (6.6mm/year) for the period combining both GRACE and GRACE-FO. The trend increases to 45mm/year over the 17-year period across central Canada, especially in regions surrounding Hudson Bay. For GRACE, maximum TWS variations occurred between February and April; for GRACE-FO, it occurred with a 2-month lag earlier during the short period being considered. Uncertainties in TWS variations that were derived by GRACE increased towards the end of the mission. Uncertainty for GRACE-FO is lower than that at the beginning of GRACE. The TWS changes extracted from the used approach were compared to Mascon solutions TWS changes products (GRCTellus JPL MSCNv02 and CSR MSCNv02), by using two steps: 1) the Water Global Assessment Prognosis hydrological model (WGHM), and 2) TWS changes derived from in-situ precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data. In all the cases our approach provided the best correlations and lower root mean square errors, compared to the Mascon products.

Glacial isostatic adjustment of the Pacific Coast of North America: the influence of lateral Earth structure

SUMMARYThe Pacific Coast of Central North America is a geodynamically complex region which has been subject to various geophysical processes operating on different timescales. Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), the ongoing deformational response of the solid Earth to past deglaciation, is an important geodynamic process in this region. In this study, we apply earth models with 3-D structure to determine if the inclusion of lateral structure can explain the poor performance of 1-D models in this region. Three different approaches are used to construct 3-D models of the Earth structure. For the first approach, we adopt an optimal 1-D viscosity structure from previous work and add lateral variations based on four global seismic shear wave velocity anomalies and two global lithosphere thickness models. The results based on these models indicate that the addition of lateral structure significantly impacts modelled RSL changes, but the data-model fits are not improved. The global seismic models are limited in spatial resolution and so two other approaches were considered to produce higher resolution models of 3-D structure: inserting a regional seismic model into two of the global seismic models and, explicitly incorporating regional structure of the Cascadia subduction zone and vicinity, that is the subducting slab, the overlying mantle wedge and the plate boundary interface. The results associated with these higher resolution models do not reveal any clear improvement in satisfying the RSL observations, suggesting that our estimates of lateral structure are inaccurate and/or the data-model misfits are primarily due to limitations in the adopted ice-loading history. The different realizations of 3-D Earth structure gives useful insight to uncertainty associated with this aspect of the GIA model. Our results indicate that improving constraints on the deglacial history of the southwest sector of the Cordilleran ice sheet is an important step towards developing more accurate of GIA models for this region.

Higher than present global mean sea level recorded by an Early Pliocene intertidal unit in Patagonia (Argentina)

Reconstructions of global mean sea level from earlier warm periods in Earth’s history can help constrain future projections of sea level rise. Here we report on the sedimentology and age of a geological unit in central Patagonia, Argentina, that we dated to the Early Pliocene (4.69–5.23 Ma, 2σ) with strontium isotope stratigraphy. The unit was interpreted as representative of an intertidal environment, and its elevation was measured with differential GPS at ca. 36 m above present-day sea level. Considering modern tidal ranges, it was possible to constrain paleo relative sea level within ±2.7 m (1σ). We use glacial isostatic adjustment models and estimates of vertical land movement to calculate that, when the Camarones intertidal sequence was deposited, global mean sea level was 28.4 ± 11.7 m (1σ) above present. This estimate matches those derived from analogous Early Pliocene sea level proxies in the Mediterranean Sea and South Africa. Evidence from these three locations indicates that Early Pliocene sea level may have exceeded 20m above its present level. Such high global mean sea level values imply an ice-free Greenland, a significant melting of West Antarctica, and a contribution of marine-based sectors of East Antarctica to global mean sea level.

Implications of glacial isostatic adjustment on petroleum reservoirs in the Grand banks of Newfoundland

Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA), or postglacial rebound refers to the crustal response to glacial loading and unloading processes. In this investigation, we run numerical simulations using different rheological parameters and ice loading histories to obtain models of the glacial isostatic response for the Grand Banks of Newfoundland. The objective is to assess in general the potential impact of GIA on hydrocarbon reservoirs and trapping structures in terms of tilting, deformation, fault activity or geochemical implications on the trapped fluids. Comparisons may be drawn to related studies, including analogous impacts on reservoirs in the Barents Sea, as well as validation of GIA model predictions of vertical crustal motion using GNSS stations, levelling networks and relative sea level (RSL) observations at numerous sites across eastern Canada. By running a series of GIA models, a range of vertical motion rates are output through time to determine displacement amounts, and calculations are performed on these outputs to disseminate other valuable data attributes such as the displacement gradient and differences in time and space. In general, the vertical motion rate is seen to change drastically over time for certain points, as the lag in response of regions near the ice periphery leads to a distinct pattern of uplift and subsidence. The Grand Banks generally experienced between 57 m of subsidence to 34 m of uplift since the last glacial maximum, depending on the specific location and the GIA model parameters. At the reservoir scale, model results along a 10 km baseline show up to −1.0–1.5 m of differential vertical displacement, which could have led to reservoir tilting or even hydrocarbon migration. As a result of this study, it is clear that there are implications of GIA on hydrocarbon reservoirs since the Last Glacial Maximum, and these effects are ongoing.

Relative sea-level stability and the radiocarbon marine reservoir correction at Natuna Island, Indonesia, since 6400 yr BP

A high-precision relative sea level (RSL) record over the past 6400 years, reconstructed from fossil coral microatoll colonies, is reported for Natuna Island, Indonesia. The timing of 11 fossil microatolls from four sites on Natuna Island is constrained by replicate 14C and 230Th dates. We investigate the local marine reservoir correction (∆R) using the replicate dates. The two sets of dates become aligned if a Marine20 ∆R of −143 ± 176 yr, 1σ (Marine13 ∆R of 15 ± 63 yr) is assigned to the 14C dates. The distribution of microatoll ages and elevations indicates that RSL was relatively stable from 6400 to 1400 yr BP at 0.2–0.7 ± 0.4 m (2σ) higher than present, before a fall to current levels. A comparison with the predictions of a suite of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models for Southeast Asia suggests refinements are needed in ice-history models to fully capture our RSL data. These new constraints on past RSL of the Sunda Shelf contribute to further calibration of GIA models in the tropics, where RSL data are presently insufficient.

Human adaptation to changing coastal landscapes in the Eastern Adriatic: Evidence from Vela Spila cave, Croatia

In this paper new palaeogeographic and archaeological data from the prehistoric cave Vela Spila on the island of Korčula in Croatia are combined with new realizations of two glacial isostatic adjustment models in order to present relative sea-level change scenarios confronting the inhabitants of the cave at different time slices and to show how they experienced and adapted to sea-level and climate change from the Late Pleistocene through the Holocene. Our results show that from the Late Upper Palaeolithic until the Mesolithic, humans in the study area would have experienced tens of metres of sea-level rise, at rates in some cases up to 12 mm per year, and, owing to the relatively flat morphology of the now submerged plains, hundreds of meters of horizontal coastline change in the plains to the north and south of the island. This evidence supports the hypothesis that the rapid loss of these plains likely contributed to the human abandonment of the cave after the Palaeolithic for about five thousand years, followed by significant changes in lifestyle and diet in the Mesolithic. Our results have important implications for the study of how past human groups, especially in vulnerable coastal areas, were affected by sea level, climate, and other environmental changes. Vela Spila represents a case study of how changing environment and rising seas can force significant alterations in human societies, even when there is no risk of inundation to settlement sites.

Deglaciation of Pope Glacier implies widespread early Holocene ice sheet thinning in the Amundsen Sea sector of Antarctica

The Amundsen Sea sector of the Antarctic ice sheet presently dominates the contribution from Antarctica to sea level rise. Several large ice streams that currently drain the sector have experienced rapid flow acceleration, grounding line retreat and thinning during the past few decades. However, little is known of their longer-term – millennial-scale – retreat history, despite the reliance of several ice sheet and glacial-isostatic adjustment models on such data for improving sea level prediction from this critical region. This study investigates the timing and extent of surface lowering of one of those ice streams, Pope Glacier, since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), using glacial-geological evidence for former ice cover. We present a new deglacial chronology for the glacier, derived from surface exposure dating of glacially-deposited cobbles and ice-scoured bedrock from Mount Murphy and its surrounding peaks. Cosmogenic 10Be exposure ages from 44 erratic cobbles and 5 bedrock samples, and in situ 14C exposure ages from one erratic and 8 bedrock samples are predominantly in the range 5.5-16 ka. Although 10Be inheritance from prior exposure is prevalent in some erratics and probably all bedrock samples, none of the ages pre-date the LGM. From these results we infer that the surface of Pope Glacier lowered by 560 m during the early- to mid-Holocene (9-6 ka), at an average rate of 0.13 ± 0.09/0.04 m yr−1. The lowering coincided with a period of enhanced upwelling of warm Circumpolar Deep Water onto the continental shelf in the region. A reduction in buttressing − facilitated by such upwelling − by an ice shelf that is thought to have spanned the embayment until 10.6 cal kyr BP could have triggered simultaneous early Holocene thinning of Pope Glacier and glaciers elsewhere in the Amundsen Sea Embayment.

Scenarios of Twenty-First Century Mean Sea Level Rise at Tide-Gauge Stations Across Canada

ABSTRACT Existing scientific literature and international assessments, such as those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, provide a wide range of projections for global mean sea level rise (SLR) in the twenty-first century. At the local scale, the ranges or uncertainties of projections are even larger. There is a pressing need to compile plausible local SLR scenarios to aid coastal communities with adaptation. Here we develop three local SLR scenarios for Canadian tide-gauge stations for the twenty-first century (Low, Intermediate, and High). Our Low Scenario is based on projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scaled down to the present global SLR rate. Our Intermediate Scenario is based on projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), and our High Scenario is based on the RCP8.5 projections with an adjusted contribution from the Antarctic ice sheet. For all three scenarios, we use vertical land motion (VLM) from global positioning systems (GPS) data corrected for the present-day melt of glaciers and ice sheets instead of the commonly used VLM from a glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model. The GPS data include not only GIA but also other processes affecting VLM. For each scenario, larger SLR is projected along the southeastern Atlantic coast, the Pacific coast, and the Beaufort Sea coast than along other Canadian coasts in the twenty-first century. Under the Low, Intermediate, and High Scenarios, the median relative sea level along the southeastern Atlantic coast may rise by as much as 0.39, 0.82, and 0.96 m, respectively, over 2010–2100. The proposed scenarios allow coastal engineers and managers to consider multiple future conditions and develop multiple response options, as well as choose the most suitable option according to the risk tolerance of infrastructure.

Studies on the variability of the Greenland Ice Sheet and climate

We review major scientific results from Subtheme (1) "Variability of the Greenland Ice Sheet and climate" under Research Theme 2 "Variations in the ice sheet, glaciers, and the environment in the Greenland region" of the Arctic Challenge for Sustainability (ArCS) project. We participated in the international East Greenland Ice Core Project (EGRIP) led by Denmark, conducted snow pit observations near the coring site and reconstructed the surface mass balance over the past 10 years. Analyses of an ice core from Northwest Greenland revealed temporal variability in black carbon concentration over the past 350 years and in mineral dust over the past 100 years. To understand the mechanisms of ice-sheet flow, which is necessary for accurate predictions of sea level rise, we conducted laboratory experiments using artificial ice and derived an improved flow law for ice containing impurities. Ice sheet modeling was improved by including effects of impurities and ice stream dynamics. As part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (ISMIP6), we simulated ice sheet mass loss and contribution to sea level rise over the 21st century and beyond. Furthermore, we developed a Glacial Isostatic Adjustment model to better constrain ice sheet models.

Uncertainty Estimation in Regional Models of Long‐Term GIA Uplift and Sea Level Change: An Overview

AbstractThis work provides a comparison of four approaches that can be used to describe uncertainty in models of the long‐term glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) process. The four methods range from pessimistic to optimistic representations of GIA uncertainty. Each estimation method is applied to selected one dimensional GIA model predictions and compared with vertical land motion data from Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements across Fennoscandia and North America. The methods are evaluated relative to two main properties: (1) their expected ability to separate non‐GIA from GIA signals and (2) their estimated statistical appropriateness given a specific GIA model and data set. For the first point, non‐GIA signals are considered isolated from the long‐term (millennial time scale) GIA signal at sites where measurement and model uncertainties do not overlap. Across methods, the frequency and accuracy with which non‐GIA signals are separated from GIA signals in GPS data display both consistent similarities and disparities. For the second point, we compare model predictions with rates of vertical land motion and relative sea level change that have been cleaned of non‐GIA signals to determine the most appropriate value of model uncertainty and relate the findings to the four approaches. Best fit inferences suggest that within deglaciation centers, GIA model uncertainty is up to ~2 mm/yr (vertical land motion). Likewise, away from the former ice sheet centers, GIA uncertainty for relative sea level change is inferred to be ~0.3–0.5 mm/yr along the U.S. East Coast and ~0.6–0.8 mm/yr in the North Sea.

Late Holocene (0–6 ka) sea-level changes in the Makassar Strait, Indonesia

Abstract. The Spermonde Archipelago, off the coast of southwest Sulawesi, consists of more than 100 small islands and hundreds of shallow-water reef areas. Most of the islands are bordered by coral reefs that grew in the past in response to paleo relative sea-level changes. Remnants of these reefs are preserved today in the form of fossil microatolls. In this study, we report the elevation, age, and paleo relative sea-level estimates derived from fossil microatolls surveyed in five islands of the Spermonde Archipelago. We describe 24 new sea-level index points, and we compare our dataset with both previously published proxies and with relative sea-level predictions from a set of 54 glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models, using different assumptions on both ice melting histories and mantle structure and viscosity. We use our new data and models to discuss Late Holocene (0–6 ka) relative sea-level changes in our study area and their implications in terms of modern relative sea-level estimates in the broader South and Southeast Asia region.

Uncertainties of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment Model Predictions in North America Associated With 3D Structure

AbstractWe quantify GIA prediction uncertainties of 250 1D and 3D glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models through comparisons with deglacial relative sea‐level (RSL) data from North America and rate of vertical land motion ( ) and gravity rate of change ( ) from GNSS and GRACE data, respectively. Spatially, the size of the RSL uncertainties varies across North America with the largest from Hudson Bay and near previous ice margins along the northern Atlantic and Pacific coasts, which suggests 3D viscosity structure in the lower mantle and laterally varying lithospheric thickness. Temporally, RSL uncertainties decrease from the Last Glacial Maximum to present except for west of Hudson Bay and the northeastern Pacific coast. The uncertainties of both these regions increase from 30 to 45 m between 15 and 11 ka BP, which may be due to the rapid decrease of surface loading at that time. Present‐day and uncertainties are largest in southwestern Hudson Bay with magnitudes of 2.4 mm/year and 0.4 μGal/year, mainly due to the 3D viscosity structure in the lower mantle.

Magnetotelluric Constraints on the Temperature, Composition, Partial Melt Content, and Viscosity of the Upper Mantle Beneath Svalbard

AbstractLong‐period magnetotelluric (MT) data can be used to interpret upper mantle temperature, hydrogen content, and the presence of partial melt, all of which strongly influence mantle viscosity. We have collected the first long‐period MT data in Svalbard and have combined them with preexisting broadband MT data to produce a model of the electrical resistivity of Svalbard's upper mantle. Asthenospheric resistivities are low compared to stable continental settings but more comparable to young oceanic asthenosphere, suggesting that the physical state of Svalbard's upper mantle is controlled by its proximity to the Mid‐Atlantic Ridge. Interpretation of the MT model using a petrologically constrained genetic algorithm approach shows that partial melt is present in the uppermost asthenosphere beneath Svalbard. This is the first direct evidence of partial melt in Svalbard's asthenosphere from deep geophysical soundings. Viscosities calculated from the geophysical data show a low viscosity layer (~1018 Pa s) coincident with the partial melt layer, underlain by a higher viscosity layer (~1020 Pa s) extending to the transition zone. Viscosities calculated from glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) data in Svalbard show a considerable range due mainly to uncertainties in past ice sheet models. Improved constraints on Svalbard's mantle viscosity from geophysical data may help to improve these GIA models.

Holocene relative sea-level change along the tectonically active Chilean coast

We present a comprehensive relative sea-level (RSL) database for north, central, and south-central Chile (18.5°S – 43.6°S) using a consistent, systematic, and internationally comparable approach. Despite its latitudinal extent, this coastline has received little rigorous or systematic attention and details of its RSL history remain largely unexplored. To address this knowledge gap, we re-evaluate the geological context and age of previously published sea-level indicators, providing 78 index points and 84 marine or terrestrial limiting points spanning from 11 ka to the present day. Many data points were originally collected for research in other fields and have not previously been examined for the information they provide on sea-level change. Additionally, we describe new sea-level data from four sites located between the Gulf of Arauco and Valdivia. By compiling RSL histories for 11 different regions, we summarise current knowledge of Chilean RSL. These histories indicate mid Holocene sea levels above present in all regions, but at highly contrasting elevations from ∼30 m to <5 m. We compare the spatiotemporal distribution of sea-level data points with a suite of glacial isostatic adjustment models and place first-order constraints on the influence of tectonic processes over 103–104 year timescales. While seven regions indicate uplift rates <1 m ka−1, the remaining regions may experience substantially higher rates. In addition to enabling discussion of the factors driving sea-level change, our compilation provides a resource to assist attempts to understand the distribution of archaeological, palaeoclimatic, and palaeoseismic evidence in the coastal zone and highlights directions for future sea-level research in Chile.

Global Glacial Isostatic Adjustment Constrained by GPS Measurements: Spherical Harmonic Analyses of Uplifts and Geopotential Variations

In addition to studies of sea level change and mantle rheology, reliable Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) models are necessary as a background model to correct the widely used Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) monthly gravity solutions to determine subsecular, nonviscous variations. Based on spherical harmonic analyses, we developed a method using degree-dependent weighting to assimilate the Global Positioning System (GPS) derived crustal uplift rates into GIA model predictions, in which the good global pattern of GIA model predictions and better local resolution of GPS solutions are both retained. Some systematic errors in global GPS uplift rates were also corrected during the spherical harmonic analyses. Further, we used the refined GIA uplift rates to infer the GIA-induced rates of Stokes coefficients (complete to degree/order 120) relying on the accurate relationship between GIA vertical surface deformation and gravitational potential changes. The results show notable improvements relative to GIA model outputs, and may serve as a GIA-correction model for GRACE time-variable gravity data.

GLOBAL CHOKE POINTS MAY LINK SEA LEVEL AND HUMAN SETTLEMENT AT THE LAST GLACIAL MAXIMUM

ABSTRACT Global choke points are preeminent nodes in geographic networks and geopolitical touchpoints subject to control by nations. They appear today as recurring theaters of conflict worldwide and also in archaeological investigations delving thousands of years back in time. How different were today’s global choke points at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ~ 20,000 years ago? For the first time, we map nine of them to visualize their conditions at LGM. The global feature aquaterra—all lands inundated and exposed repeatedly during the Late Pleistocene ice ages—initially was mapped as first approximations of sea level. Here we refine its boundaries using Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) models to account for the Earth’s deformation and horizontal migrations of shorelines in response to glacial melting. We found three choke points sufficiently open to navigation, but six others presented substantially greater barriers than today. Implications include strategic insights on where to search for submerged evidence of human settlement.

Testing glacial isostatic adjustment models of last-interglacial sea level history in the Bahamas and Bermuda

Part of the spatial variation in the apparent sea-level record of the last interglacial (LIG) period is due to the diverse response of coastlines to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) processes, particularly where coastlines were close to the Laurentide Ice Sheet during the past two glacial periods. We tested modeled LIG paleo-sea levels on New Providence Island (NPI), Bahamas and Bermuda by investigating emergent coral patch reefs and oolitic/peloidal beach deposits. Corals with closed-system histories collected from patch reefs on NPI have ages of 128-118 ka and ooids/peloids from beach ridges have closed-system ages of 128-116 ka. Elevations of patch reefs indicate a LIG paleo-sea level of at least ∼7 m to ∼9 m above present. Beach ridge sediments indicate paleo-sea levels of ∼5 m to ∼14 m (assuming subsidence, ∼7 m to ∼16 m) above present during the LIG. Some, though not all of these measurements are in good agreement with GIA models of paleo-sea level that have been simulated for the Bahamas. On Bermuda, corals with closed-system histories collected from marine deposits have ages of 126-114 ka. Although coral-bearing marine deposits on Bermuda lack the precise indication of paleo-sea level provided by patch reefs and oolitic beach ridges, these sediments nevertheless provide at least a first-order estimate of paleo-sea level. Paleo-sea level records on Bermuda are consistently lower (∼2 m to ∼7 m) than what GIA models simulate for the LIG. The reason for the reasonable agreement with models for the Bahamas and poor agreement for Bermuda is not understood, but needs further investigation in light of the probability of a higher sea level in the near future.