Ecological Risk Assessment Model Research Articles

Landscape ecological risk assessment in Qinling Mountain

In this paper, landscape ecological risk in Qinling Mountain was studied. Using the remote sensing images of Landsat TM and DEM data in 1984, 2000, 2005, and 2014, an ecological risk assessment model was constructed, and landscape ecological risk indexes were calculated for four time periods 1984, 2004, 2005 and 2014. The spatial distribution of ecological risk was obtained with ArcGIS and geostatistics, and changes in the landscape patterns and spatiotemporal characteristics of ecological risk were analysed. As shown in the results; (a) from 1984 to 2014, the landscape pattern index of Qinling forest area was relatively stable; fragmentation and segregation decreased, and dominance and area increased. The fragmentation and separation of cultivated land increased over time, and the geographical distribution of cultivated land diversified, while its dominance decreased. (b) The areas of extremely low and extremely high ecological risk level in the study area is gradually reduced. But the area of high ecological risk level increased obviously. The extremely high ecological risk area was mainly distributed in the middle and south‐eastern regions. The extremely low and low risk areas were mainly distributed in the low hilly areas of northern Qinling.

Air pollution-oriented ecological risk assessment in Xiamen city, China

ABSTRACTUrban energy consumption is one of the most important causes of air pollution. Air pollution-oriented ecological risk assessment is of great significance to the promotion of urban environmental protection. This paper focuses on ecological risk in Xiamen city caused by air pollutant discharge from urban energy consumption. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning model was used to establish two scenarios of energy consumption in Xiamen city, and based on different scenarios, we estimated urban energy consumption and discharge quantity of air pollutant (DQAP). A box model and an expert scoring method were used to calculate the air pollution burden (APB) of SO2, NO2, CO, PM10 and PM2.5 and to obtain the probabilities of different air pollution loads. An ecological risk assessment model was developed and utilized to predict Xiamen city’s ecological risks in 2020. The results showed that under an energy-saving scenario, the ecological risks for PM2.5, SO2 and NO2 are high, whereas the ecological risks for CO and PM10 are low. Under a baseline scenario, the ecological risks for PM2.5, SO2 and NO2 are moderate, whereas the ecological risks for CO and PM10 are low. In addition, the APB of SO2, NO2, CO, and PM2.5, but not of PM10, is predicted to rise. In the simulation, energy generation from coal is the main source of air pollution. Although the DQAP from automobiles is not high, it is predicted to rise year-on-year. In summary, the ecological risk due to pollution in Xiamen city is high, and the main pollutants are SO2, NO2 and PM2.5.

Marsh wetland degradation risk assessment and change analysis: A case study in the Zoige Plateau, China

Wetlands play an important role in regional development and environmental protection. Under the impact of natural and artificial factors, the plateau wetlands have degenerated and even disappeared, resulting in serious problems for society and the ecological environment. It is necessary to establish a reasonable risk assessment method to evaluate the risk of wetland degradation, and then to analyze changes in the range and features of risk. For this work, the Zogie Plateau wetland was selected as the study area. For this site, a wetland degradation risk assessment method was established based on the conceptual model of Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA). The method included nine indicators used to analyze the wetland hazard index, wetland vulnerability index, and wetland degradation risk synthetically. From the spatial-temporal pattern, the wetland degradation risk was analyzed using data from 2000 to 2014. The calculated results revealed the following: (1) from 2000 to 2014, the wetland hazard index (WHI) showed a trend of increase, the value of which increased from 0.29 to 0.42, with a growth rate of 44.83%. Similarly, the wetland vulnerability index (WVI) significantly increased from 0.30 to 0.54, with a growth rate of 80%. Over the same time, the total wetland area decreased from 3910.25km2 to 2777.38km2, a reduction of 28.97%. (2) Using the equidistant method, the risk value was divided into three risk grades. The wetland degradation risk in the whole region is increasing, and the risk rank has changed from the low risk zone (0.092) to the medium risk zone (0.25). The degradation risk becomes greater with distance from the center to fringe areas.

鄱阳湖流域土地利用生态风险格局

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 鄱阳湖流域土地利用生态风险格局 DOI: 10.5846/stxb201512152507 作者: 作者单位: 江西师范大学地理与环境学院,江西师范大学地理与环境学院,江西师范大学地理与环境学院,江西师范大学地理与环境学院,江西师范大学地理与环境学院 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 国家自然科学基金资助项目（41561025）；江西省重大生态安全问题监控协同创新中心资助项目（JXS-EW-00） Ecological risk pattern of Poyang Lake basin based on land use Author: Affiliation: School of Geography and Environment,School of Geography and Environment,School of Geography and Environment,School of Geography and Environment, Fund Project: 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:以鄱阳湖流域土地利用数据为基础，定量分析2005年以来鄱阳湖流域土地利用变化特征；借助空间自相关、地统计分析等方法，揭示了鄱阳湖流域土地利用变化下生态风险时空演变特征。结果表明：2005-2013年，鄱阳湖流域土地利用转移非农化趋势明显；土地利用生态风险呈小幅上升趋势，在空间分布上具有显著相关性，生态风险“北热南冷”空间分异及等级扩散特征明显；依据空间差值结果可将研究区划分为低生态风险区（ERI < 0.15）、较低生态风险区（0.15≤ERI < 0.25）、中等生态风险区（0.25≤ERI < 0.35）、较高生态风险区（0.35≤ERI < 0.45）、高生态风险区（ERI≥0.45）5类；高风险区域主要分布在滨湖区、南昌、九江及赣中部分地区。生态风险等级分布与地形存在显著相关性，随着生态风险等级提高，分布区域表现出明显的地形指向性。以土地利用结构对生态风险进行表征，尝试从宏观上把握大尺度区域生态安全格局，为鄱阳湖流域土地利用格局优化提供了相关借鉴及建议。 Abstract:The ecological impact of different land use types and intensity could reveal on regional ecosystem structure changes directly, and the changes of structure and function of land ecosystem would profoundly affect regional ecosystem health. Therefore, ecological risk assessment in terms of landscape structure is an effective method to study regional ecological risk pattern. Poyang Lake, the largest freshwater lake in China, plays an essential role in biodiversity protection and water ecological security in Yangtze River basin. However, irrational development and construction activities have resulted in significant landscape changes in recent years, which may aggravate regional ecological risk. This study takes Poyang Lake basin as a case study to explore the impact of land use change on ecological risk. Based on an ecological risk assessment model derived from land use structure, the study tries to explore ecological security pattern and provide a scientific reference for optimizing land utilization in Poyang Lake basin. The characteristics of land use changes in Poyang Lake watershed were analyzed quantitatively based on land use data during 2005-2013. Then, the spatial-temporal variation of the ecological risk and the relationship between ecological risk and terrain factors were investigated by GIS techniques. The result shows that about 9.2% of the total areas experienced land use changes, which 68.5% occurred among farmland, construction land and forests. The major types of land transformation are mutual conversion between forests and farmland, and the conversion of farmland to construction land, showing a remarkable trend of non-agricultural transformation. The average ecological risk index (ERI) increased from 0.237 in 2005 to 0.246 in 2013, probably as the consequence of farmland reduction and rapid expansion of construction land. The ERI showed a positive spatial autocorrelation and obvious local spatial clustering, and generally decreased significantly from north to south. Based on the spatial interpolation of ERI, the study area was divided into five grades:low risk region (ERI < 0.15), inferior risk region (0.15≤ERI < 0.25), mediate risk region (0.25≤ERI < 0.35), relatively high risk region (0.35≤ERI < 0.45), high risk region (ERI≥0.45). The high risk and relatively high risk region expanded rapidly, mainly located in Poyang Lake area, Nanchang, Jiujiang and central Jiangxi province, with the area proportion increasing from 9.08% in 2005 to 11.68% in 2013. The spatial distribution of ERI grades was significantly related to topographic characteristics, i.e. 99% of the high risk regions and 98% of the relatively high risk regions were concentrated in lowlands or slightly hilly areas (with an altitude of 0-150 m); high, relatively high and mediate risk regions were mostly distributed in flat areas with a slope of 0°-3°. To promote the sustainable utilization status of regional land resource and optimize the land use pattern, several suggestions are given as follows:(1) reform the inefficient way of land use and encourage intensive land utilization; (2) implement strict land use control, especially protect farmland, and transfer industries and urbanization to hilly areas according to local conditions for mitigating ecological risk in lowland areas; and (3) strengthen urban ecological security management while paying more attention to rural environment protection. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献

Comprehensive ecological risk assessment for heavy metal pollutions in three phases in rivers

Literature lacked in providing a comprehensive research on heavy metal detection in aquatic, biological and sedimentary states of rivers. The present study was imparted with all these three components of the river. Heavy metal toxicity or pollution index was used as a tool for ecological risk assessment by considering the single state studies conducted by many researchers. An intensive ecological risk assessment model was constructed and heavy metals were indicated as a serious threat to the environment. The model was applied to determining five toxic heavy metals in three states of the Songhua River. According to the ecological risk index, heavy metal pollution in three phases was categorized as aquatic>biological>sedimentary, while the overall descending order of heavy metal ecological risk index was as Cd>Hg>As>Pb>Cr. Cd and Hg were selected as the priority pollutants of Songhua River.

Key issues for the development and application of the species sensitivity distribution (SSD) model for ecological risk assessment

The species sensitivity distribution (SSD) model is one of the most commonly used methods for ecological risk assessment based on the potentially affected fraction (PAF) of and the combined PAF (msPAF) as quantitative indicators. There are usually four steps for the development of SSD models and their applications: (1) obtain the toxicity data of the pollutants; (2) fit the SSD curves; (3) calculate the potentially affected fractions (PAFs) of the individual pollutants for the ecological risk assessment of an individual pollutant; and (4) calculate the accumulated multi-substance potentially affected fractions (msPAFs) for the joint ecological risk assessment of multiple pollutants. Among the above mentioned four steps, the first two steps are paramount. In the present study, the following six key issues are discussed: (1) how to select the appropriate species, (2) how to preprocess the toxicity data collected from the ecotoxicity database, (3) how to transform the acute toxicity data into chronic data, (4) how to best fit the toxicity data, (5) how to calculate the msPAF of multiple pollutants, and (6) how to determine the uncertainty of the SSD model”. In response to these questions, several principles were proposed to select appropriate species; three data processing methods, including the geometric mean, weight assigning and using all raw data without processing, were compared to determine the appropriate method for the DDT (dichloro diphenyl trichloroethane) toxicity data preprocessing. The method of acute to chronic ratio (ACR) and binary correlation analysis were contrasted using the zinc toxicity data for the transformation of the acute toxicity data into chronic data. The Burr III, Loglogistic and Lognormal models were compared to determine the best fit model using the DDT toxicity data for invertebrates. The concentration addition or response addition were discussed to calculate msPAF according to the toxic model of action (TMoA). The uncertainties of the SSD models for five heavy metals and for eight polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were performed. The comparison of the coefficients of variation (CVs) for the toxicity data and exposure levels in Lake Chaohu for eight polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were also presented to demonstrate the uncertainties of the ecological risks assessed by the SSD model based on 5000 Monte Carlo simulations.

Study of Risk-Trade-Off Assessment Method of Lead Solder in Tokyo Bay Using Ecological Risk Assessment Model

Study of Risk-Trade-Off Assessment Method of Lead Solder in Tokyo Bay Using Ecological Risk Assessment Model

Review of Study of Ecological Risk Management

With the development of society, the ecological risks continue to produce; ecological risk management is becoming urgent. This paper uses the literature research methods, focusing on the origin of ecological risks, the arising of ecological risk management, the ecological risk assessment model, and the relationship between ecological risk assessment and ecological risk management. Based on research at home and abroad, the paper proposes shortcomings of current research and three areas for further study in the future.

Developing a Model for Ecological Risk Assessment of Chemicals and Supporting Its Implementation in Society

Developing a Model for Ecological Risk Assessment of Chemicals and Supporting Its Implementation in Society

Longitudinal spread of bicomponent contaminant in wetland flow dominated by bank-wall effect

Presented in this paper is a theoretical analysis for longitudinal spread of bicomponent contaminant in a fully developed steady wetland flow dominated by bank-wall effect. Based on the general form of concentration transport equations adopted for wetland flows, an ecological risk assessment model is given for the decay of concentration under the combined action of reversible and irreversible reactions, as well as hydraulic dispersion. Through a combination of the method for solving linear parabolic system and an asymptotic analysis for hydraulic dispersion in the wetland flow, an analytical solution for long time evolution of bicomponent contaminant concentration is rigorously derived and illustrated. The solution is shown to be an extension of known solutions for single component contaminant transport due to an irreversible reaction and hydraulic dispersion, as well as biocomponent contaminant transport due to reversible reactions and hydraulic dispersion. It is found that the concentration ratio of binary components can approach an equilibrium status, with necessary time to obtain the status dependent on transfer and degradation rates of each component. The length and duration of influenced region with concentration of contaminant cloud beyond given environmental standard level are presented for a uniform instantaneous emission into the wetland flow. The result shows that the length increases with time to reach maximum and then decreases to zero, and the duration is sensitive to the variation of a dimensionless parameter to reflect the relative importance of an irreversible action and lateral mass dispersion.

Terrestrial Ecological Risk Assessment Model of Nuozhadu Reservoir

Large reservoir ecological risk assessment is an important part of ecological environmental protection and improvement. Taking Nuozhadu reservoir in Lancang river basin as an example, a multi-level risk receptor--multiple risk source evaluation index system which can describe the complicated relationship and mechanism of ecological risk is established in terms of recognizing ecological risk sources and receptors of the valley area of terrestrial ecosystems; Considering fuzziness of human cognition on ecological system, diversity and different measure standard of the risk evaluation indicators, the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on RRM(Relative Risk Model) thought is constructed. Calculation results show that the ecological-risk fuzzy-evaluation score of each receptor and the overall score can be obtained, which can provide important reference for ecological environment improvement of Nuozhadu reservoir area through the comparative analysis.

Study of risk-trade-off assessment method of lead solder in Tokyo Bay by Ecological Risk Assessment Model.

Study of risk-trade-off assessment method of lead solder in Tokyo Bay by Ecological Risk Assessment Model.

Assessment of urban ecological risk from spatial interaction models for Lijiang City

Rapid growth in land use has caused problems such as waste of natural resources, geological disasters and damage to heritage through the social, economic and environmental impacts of urban sprawl. In this paper, a new model and index system of urban ecological risk assessment (ERA) based on geographic information system (GIS) was built. To identify and classify urban ecological risk factors, three crucial parameters are described: land use features, spatial distance between receptors and risk sources and developed area. World Cultural Heritage conservation areas serve as key receptors, while expansion of land use for construction results in massive urbanisation as a risk source. To analyse the relationships between the receptors and risk sources, a spatial interaction model (SIM), spatial analysis with GIS and geostatistical methods were used. The results show that urban sprawl land threatens Lijiang's land-use patterns. The Lashihai wetland and Wenbi reservoir are at highest risk, while Jade Dragon Snow Mountain is only slightly affected. This research provides further and more comprehensive technical support for identifying potential ecological risk and guaranteeing ecological security in zoning and achieving sustainable development of Lijiang City.

Integrating Multiple Pressures at Different Spatial and Temporal Scales: A Concept for Relative Ecological Risk Assessment in the European Marine Environment

ABSTRACT A Relative Ecological Risk Assessment model is presented with an emphasis on risk calculation and risk characterization. Several types of impacts are incorporated including mortality, competition, and disturbance effects at different spatial scales exemplifying fisheries effects on benthic communities, marine mammals, and birds. Fisheries sectors analyzed are beam trawlers, demersal otter trawlers, gillnet, and sandeel fisheries in the German Exclusive Economic Zone of the North Sea. The basic ecological unit to which the risk score applies is the population/stock level or the distribution range of a community. The risk function comprises an exposure term and the loss function. The loss function is driven by a relative term, that is, the ratio between negative potential, that is, decline or mortality, and positive potential, that is, recovery. Sensitivity analysis is carried out to indicate model precision and its capabilities to distinguish between high and low risk areas and impacts. Limit reference values important for characterization of relative ecological risk are analytically defined. Model parameterization is based on literature review, and calculated examples show that beam trawling appears as a strong risk component to benthic communities, likely to exceed the limit reference value. For marine mammals (i.e., Harbour porpoise) in the German EEZ, by-catch in gillnet fisheries is a relatively strong risk.

An ecological risk assessment model for a pulsed contaminant emission into a wetland channel flow

As a continuation of the modelling on ecological degradation and hydraulic dispersion of pollutant emission into an idealized two-dimensional free-surface wetland flow (Zeng, L., Chen, G.Q., 2009b. Ecological degradation and hydraulic dispersion of contaminant in wetland. Ecol. Model., doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.10.024), an ecological risk assessment model for the typical case of a pulsed contaminant emission into a realistic three-dimensional wetland channel flow is presented in this paper for the fate of cross-sectional mean concentration under environmental dispersion. An environmental dispersion model for the mean concentration is devised as an extension of Taylor’s classical analysis on dispersion in fluid flows. The velocity distribution and the environmental dispersivity in the fully developed steady flow through the wetland is found and illustrated with limiting cases covering various known solutions for the porous media flow between parallel plates, flow in a shallow wetland, sweeping flow in a densely vegetated wetland, and single phase flow in a channel. Obtained by Aris’s method of moments, the environmental dispersivity is shown characterized with multi-scale asymptotic time variations with stem dominated stage, transitional stage, and width–depth-stem dominated stage. Based on the solution for the evolution of contaminant cloud in the wetland channel flow, critical length and duration of the contaminant cloud with concentration beyond given environmental standard level are concretely illustrated for typical pollutant constituents in wastewater emission. Under the same emission intensity and environmental standard, the duration of contaminant cloud in the wetland channel is revealed shorter than that in a free surface wetland, due to the lateral effect.

Conservation Priorities for the Peruvian Yellow-Tailed Woolly Monkey (Oreonax flavicauda): A GIS Risk Assessment and Gap Analysis

An inductive GIS (Geographical Information System) process was used to create a realistic Habitat Suitability Model (HSM) for the current distributional range of the Peruvian yellow-tailed woolly monkey (Oreonax flavicauda) to aid current conservation initiatives and to help set future conservation priorities for the species. In combination with this, we produced an ecological risk assessment model of the study region to assist in site selection for priority areas for conservation actions, which included the expansion of the existing protected area system and the creation of new reserves in areas forming natural biological corridors in the northeastern Peruvian departments of Amazonas and San Martin. This study incorporates information regarding the threat of hunting and other anthropogenic pressures on the species into the site selection process. Oreonax flavicauda, currently on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species as Critically Endangered, was once thought to be extinct. Since its rediscovery in 1974, however, there has been little research on this species due to its small population size, restricted distribution, and the difficulty of access to its mountainous habitat. A gap analysis showed that the current protected area network was inadequate to conserve the yellow-tailed woolly monkey's current suitable habitat. This finding underlines the urgency of upgrading the protected area network as well as implementing other conservation initiatives. The selection of sites suitable for the creation of new protected areas was based on habitat composition, altitudinal and geographical limits, and proximity to human influences, using an inductive process of extracting information from locations where O. flavicauda is known to occur, from existing demographic information on human populations, and by qualitative judgments. We recommend urgent action to protect this species before population numbers decrease further.

Potential Ecological Risk Assessment Model for Heavy Metal Contamination of Agricultural Soils in Mining Areas

The aim of this work was to develop a potential ecological risk index to be used as a diagnostic tool for heavy metal contaminated agricultural soils control purposes in mining areas.Taking consideration that the main-road for ecological risk of heavy metal contamination of soil is soil-vegetation-man.The environmental bioavailability largely determines the environmental impact of metal contaminated soils.Using environmental bioavailability explain the environmental toxicity sensitivity of the heavy metals in the soil-vegetation-man ecological system.The model is following: RI=Σmi=1Eri,with Eri= Cif×Tib×Tie.RI= the requested potential ecological risk index for soil;Eri = the potential ecological risk factor for the given substance(i);Cif= the degree of contamination,Cif=Ci/ Cio,Ci= the metal concentration in the soil,Cio= the metal concentration for samples from referring area;Tie= the element toxic-response factor for the given substance: Zn=1,Pb=4,Cd=15,Cu=2,Cr=11,Ni=3.Tib=(Rib / Pib)1/2;Tib =the environment bioavailbability ratio factor,Tib =(Rib / Pib)1/2,Rib =[water soluble fraction + exchangeable fraction/total concentration of the metal in soil](100%] for the samples of contaminated soil,Pib=[water soluble fraction + exchangeable fraction/total concentration of the metal in soil]×100%] for samples from referring area.

Risk assessment of human antibiotics in Korean aquatic environment

In Korea, antibiotic usage has received a lot of attention from the public due to the increasing number of bacteria resistant to the currently used antibiotics. In this study based on FDA regulation and EU draft guideline, the most concerned antibiotics regarding their environmental risk in Korea were assessed and the refined predicted environmental concentration in surface water (PEC surface water) was obtained by applying a GIS-based KORea ECOlogical Risk assessment (KOREOCORisk) model. Thirteen antibiotics, which expected introductory concentration (EIC) greater than the trigger value (1.0 μg/L), were chosen to assess ecological risk and the PEC/PNEC ratio exceeded 1.0 for amoxicillin, erythromycin and roxithromycin. The results in this study using conservative assumptions did not represent that there is a risk for acute toxic effects in the environment based on today's use of pharmaceuticals in Korea. However, the results do not exclude the potential for chronic environmental effects.

On the Use of Mathematical Models in Ecological Risk Assessments: A Response to Tannenbaum

Integrated Environmental Assessment and ManagementVolume 4, Issue 1 p. 4-4 Letter to the Editor On the use of mathematical models in ecological risk assessments: A response to tannenbaum Lawrence W Barnthouse, Lawrence W Barnthouse [email protected] LWB Environmental Services, Inc., 1620 New London Rd., Hamilton, Ohio 45013, USASearch for more papers by this author Lawrence W Barnthouse, Lawrence W Barnthouse [email protected] LWB Environmental Services, Inc., 1620 New London Rd., Hamilton, Ohio 45013, USASearch for more papers by this author First published: 05 November 2009 https://doi.org/10.1002/ieam.5630040103Citations: 3Read the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat No abstract is available for this article.Citing Literature Volume4, Issue1January 2008Pages 4-4 RelatedInformation

On the use of mathematical models in ecological risk assessments: A response to tannenbaum

On the use of mathematical models in ecological risk assessments: A response to tannenbaum