Project Model Research Articles

Multiyear ENSO Dynamics as Revealed in Observations, Climate Model Simulations, and the Linear Recharge Oscillator

Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events occasionally recur one after the other in the same polarity, called multiyear ENSO. However, the dynamical processes are not well understood. This study aims to elucidate the unified mechanisms of multiyear ENSO using observations, phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models, and the theoretical linear recharge oscillator (RO) model. We found that multiyear El Niño and La Niña events are roughly symmetric except for cases of multiyear La Niña following strong El Niño. The composite multiyear ENSO reveals that anomalous ocean heat content (OHC) in the equatorial Pacific persists beyond the first peak, stimulating another event. This prolonged OHC anomaly is caused by meridional Ekman heat transport counteracting geostrophic transport-induced recharge–discharge process that otherwise acts to change the OHC anomaly. A meridionally wide pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies observed during multiyear ENSO is responsible for the Ekman heat transport and multiple factors such as decadal variability, subtropical processes, and ENSO diversity modulate the ENSO meridional structure. CMIP6 multimodel ensemble shows a significant correlation between the ENSO meridional width and the occurrence ratio of multiyear ENSO, supporting the aforementioned mechanism. A multiyear ENSO-like oscillation was simulated using the linear RO model that incorporates a seasonally varying Bjerknes growth rate and a weak recharge efficiency representing the effect of Ekman transport. When the recharge efficiency parameter was estimated using reanalysis data based on geostrophic transport alone, a multiyear ENSO rarely occurred, confirming the importance of Ekman transport in retarding the recharge–discharge process.

Why Pacific quasi-decadal oscillation has emerged since the mid-20th century

Pacific quasi-decadal oscillation (PQDO) is one component of the multi-time-scale tropical Pacific decadal variability, with a variability center in the equatorial central Pacific (ECP). PQDO has emerged since the 1950s and has a significant impact on decadal climate variability over Asia and North America and Pacific storms. However, why it has intensified since the 1950s remains unknown. Here we test two competing hypotheses, (1) 11-year solar cycle forcing and (2) internal variability arising from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) asymmetry, by analyzing simulation results, including one fixed-forcing control (CTRL) experiment and four sensitive experiments with millennial spectral solar irradiance (SSI), obtained from the Community Earth System Model–Last Millennium Ensemble modeling project. The four-member ensemble-averaged SSI experiments suggest that 11-year solar irradiance forcing cannot excite PQDO without stratospheric amplification of solar forcing. By analyzing 144 years of observations and the CTRL experiment, we find that the PQDO is nonstationary, and consecutive La Niña-induced decadal variability can boost PQDO in the ECP. El Niño could induce decadal ENSO signals in the NINO3.4 region but not in PQDO regions. The negative phase of PQDO tends to follow the occurrence of multi-year La Niña. We suggest that the emergence of PQDO since the 1950s is mainly due to the increase in multi-year La Niña events.

Improving Critical Thinking Skills (CTS) of Students Through Wave Energy Learning Project (WELP) on Environmental Physics Lecture

This study aims to encourage the critical thinking skills (CTS) of students through the Wave Energy Learning Project (WELP) program, which is applied with an early-assisted project-based learning model (EA-PjBL) in Environmental Physics lectures. The research focuses on the topic of the environment as a renewable energy source, especially ocean wave energy. In the WELP program, there is a prototype of ocean wave energy that has been developed as a teaching aid and an initial project model that pre-service physics teachers will develop. The data collection instrument used was a description test of the concept of ocean wave energy based on CTS, performance and product assessments, peer performance assessments, lecture observation sheets, and pre-service physics teachers’ perception sheets. The research subjects were 31 pre-service physics teachers in the sixth semester of the Physics Education study program at one of the academic staff education institutions in West Nusa Tenggara. The research data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, N-gain test, t-test, and effect size analysis. The data analysis results show a strong influence on the use of the WELP program through the EA-PjBL learning model on improving the CTS of pre-service physics teachers. The CTS of pre-service teachers has increased by category after attending lectures using the WELP program. This research implies that the WELP program developed can be a model for developing lecture programs on other renewable energy materials that enhance the development of higher-order thinking skills. The project in this research triggers the younger generation to contribute to overcoming the global electrical energy crisis.

Image to Caption Generator

Abstract: Image captioning aims to automatically generate a sentence description for an image. Our project model will take an image as input and generate an English sentence as output, describing the contents of the image. It has attractedmuch research attention in cognitive computing in the recent years. The task is rather complex, as the concepts of both computer vision andnatural language processing domains are combined together. We have developed a model using the concepts of a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and LongShort Term Memory (LSTM) model and build aworking model of Image caption generator by implementing CNN with LSTM.The CNN works as encoder to extract features from images and LSTM works as decoder to generates words describing image. After the captiongeneration phase, weuse BLEU Scoresto evaluate the efficiency of our model. Thus, our system helpsthe user to get descriptive caption for the given input image.

Finding space for nature in cities: the considerable potential of redundant car parking

Nature-based solutions (NBS) are recognised as a means to address challenges such as heatwaves, flooding and biodiversity loss. Delivering these benefits at scale will require large areas of scarce urban land to be converted into green space. Here we show an approach by which cities can make substantial progress towards their sustainability targets using NBS, by converting redundant street parking into biodiverse green space. We demonstrate that up to half of street parking in our case study municipality (The City of Melbourne) could be accommodated in garages within 200 m, freeing up large areas for greening. Our modelling projects significant benefits in terms of tree canopy over, stormwater and ecological connectivity. These would represent strong progress towards a number of the city’s ambitious NBS targets. As many cities allocate extensive areas to both street parking and off-street garages, this approach to freeing up space for nature in cities is widely applicable.

Varying contributions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and natural forcings to Arctic land surface air temperature changes

The Arctic has warmed rapidly over the past century, with widespread negative impacts on local and surrounding environments. Previous studies have estimated the overall effects of individual groups of anthropogenic forcing agents on Arctic warming. However, the spatial patterns and temporal variabilities of the separate contributions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), natural forcing agents (NATs; solar radiation and volcanic activity combined) and other anthropogenic (OANT) forcing agents (which are dominated by aerosols) on Arctic land surface air temperatures remain underexamined. Here, we use CMIP6 (the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models to quantify the separate contributions of GHGs, NATs and OANT forcing agents to Arctic land surface air temperature changes and analyze their spatial and temporal change patterns from 1915 to 2014. The results show that GHGs alone have warmed the Arctic by 2.72 °C/century (90% confidence interval: 1.42 °C–4.03 °C), 61.8% of which has been offset by OANT agents. The GHG-induced warming peaks are found in Ellesmere Island, Severnaya Zemlya and Svalbard (above 4 °C/century), while the largest cooling effects (above −2 °C/century) induced by OANT agents occurred in Krasnoyarsk Krai and Severnaya Zemlya. A further temporal evolution analysis indicates that the effects of GHGs and OANT forcings have been gradually and robustly detected over time; this increases our confidence in projecting future Arctic climate changes via CMIP6 models.

The Development of the Pilot Project Model for Children’s Health Registration Program

The Development of the Pilot Project Model for Children’s Health Registration Program

MODELING PROJECT RISKS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WIND POWER PLANT PROJECT

The construction of a wind power plant is a complex project that requires many years, during which time all the interested parties are exposed to numerous risks, including some with potentially devastating consequences. In this article, a methodology for modeling project risks in the development of a wind power plant project is presented, taking into account the specific circumstances in the Republic of Croatia. The applied method of risk analysis belongs to the group of probability methods that use Monte Carlo simulation analysis. The identified risks and manner of conducting qualitative and quantitative risk analysis are described in detail. Using the example of the risk analysis of a project for a 20x1 MW wind power plant, the economic criteria for decision making are explained and incorporated in a model. This risk analysis model for the wind power plant projects in the Republic of Croatia is constructed in Microsoft Excel and intended for decision makers and project developers. Although the reference case in the model is wind power plant project in Croatia, it can be adapted to any market whatsoever.

BIM-TECHNOLOGIES FOR MONITORING AND DYNAMIC ADJUSTMENT OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CONSTRUCTION CALENDAR PLAN

Statement of the problem. The subject of the research is information models of a complete life project in the sector of architecture, design, construction and operation of buildings and structures. The purpose of the study is to build a model that implements the forecasting of the progress of the calendar plan and optimizes management decisions aimed at minimizing the negative consequences of external stochastic impacts. Results. An information model of construction based on a vector description of basic structures and hierarchical construction of derived structures is constructed. All model structures are divided into static and dynamic components. Based on the information model, optimal algorithms for monitoring the implementation of the calendar plan and optimizing management decisions in the conditions of external stochastic influences are formulated. Dynamic indexes are obtained that allow optimizing both strategic and operational management decisions. The optimal monitoring frequency in terms of the cost/return ratio has been determined. The software implementation of the algorithms proposed in the work in the shell of the relational database management system has been performed. Conclusions. The results of the study allow us to conclude that in the conditions of external stochastic impacts, information technologies significantly simplify the dynamic monitoring of the implementation of the construction schedule and the development of management decisions. The introduction of a vector description of the information model of the full life cycle into the practice of the construction industry makes it possible to optimize both local models and mechanisms of interaction between project participants.

An Interdecadal Enhancement of the Impact of ENSO on the Summer Northeast Asian Circulation around 1999/2000 through the Silk Road Pattern

Abstract In this study, we find that the negative relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and summer Northeast Asia (NEA; 30°–50°N, 110°–140°E) circulation, especially the geopotential height anomalies in the upper troposphere (H200), is weakened from the early 1970s, remains stable since the middle 1980s, and is strengthened dramatically after 1999/2000. The recent transitions of the ENSO–NEA H200 relationship are closely connected with the variation of circumglobal teleconnection (CGT)/Silk Road pattern (SRP), which is further modified by the interdecadal shift of the ENSO–Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) relationship and ENSO evolution. During 1980–99 when the continuing ENSOs dominate, the weakened ENSO–ISMR relationship leads to an inactive ENSO-related CGT/SRP wave train in the upper-level troposphere and then a weakened connection between ENSO and H200 over the NEA. On the other hand, when the emerging ENSOs dominate after 1999/2000, the restored ENSO–ISMR relationship reinforces the ENSO-related CGT/SRP wave train and then enhances ENSO–NEA H200 relationship. This mechanism is well simulated in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project models (AMIP) and Pacific Ocean–Global Atmosphere (POGA) experiments.

Input–output analysis of the Ukraine war: A tool for assessing the internal territorial impacts of the conflict

AbstractThe Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, scaled up the ongoing conflict in Donbas beyond its regional borders, hindering and halting different aspects of economic life. Considering the internal geography of Ukraine's economic structure, the damage to physical infrastructure and supply chain disruption are likely to propagate to other parts of the country through an intricate plot of production and income linkages. From a disaggregated analysis of multiregional and multisectoral linkages, this article offers a systematic, integrated account of the structural linkages that allows modeling spillovers from one Ukrainian region to another. This approach breaks new ground by highlighting the internal economic effects of the conflict in Ukraine. We develop an interregional input–output system for Ukraine, providing the numerical basis for developing analytical frameworks to support knowledge‐building in the recovery process of distressed territories during the postwar period. We offer this database to the international scientific community to support modeling projects focusing on structural features of the Ukrainian economy. As shown in our illustrative exercises, understanding the structure of intersectoral and interregional linkages is critical to better understanding the propagation of exogenous shocks to the economy.

Authenticity ahead of interdisciplinarity – a scoping review of student experiences in interdisciplinary science projects

Interdisciplinary projects are reported to facilitate the development of both disciplinary and generic skills. They vary in their design and implementation, but the effectiveness of different project models has not been studied. The aim of this study was to determine student satisfaction, engagement with learning and development of employability skills across interdisciplinary projects with different delivery models. This scoping review appraises interdisciplinary projects implemented in science-based undergraduate degree programs. Projects with varying models of delivery, interdisciplinarity, authenticity and external partner involvement were examined, and the reported student learning and satisfaction ratings compared. Descriptive statistics and cross tabulation using Fisher’s Exact test were used to analyse the data. The interdisciplinary project model had little effect on engagement with learning, but student satisfaction improved if the project task was rated as authentic (p<0.05). Improved learning was reported in about half of the projects reviewed. Improved employability was reported in projects where students used discipline-based skills to provide a consultancy (p<0.05), and those where an external partner was involved (p<0.05). The interdisciplinary project model did not affect disciplinary or employability skill development, apart from interdisciplinary competence, which was significantly improved in a truly interdisciplinary project (p<0.01). Interpersonal skill development was significantly improved where projects had integrated rather than sequential tasks (p<0.05). Overall, interdisciplinary projects that were authentic and/or involved an external partner generated better student satisfaction and real-world experience. These results inform the future design of interdisciplinary project-based learning tasks and encourage involvement of external partners in project design and delivery.

A cross-national comparison of the project governance frameworks in two Nordic countries

A strong public project governance structure is instrumental to ensure the effective and efficient delivery of projects in the public domain. The Norwegian State Project Model is an example of such a structure; a standardized classification of projects into stages, with defined decision points, where requirements regarding documentation are specified. In Iceland, the public project governance structure has been criticised. This paper investigates the Icelandic framework by comparison to the Norwegian framework, through a desk analysis of both structures. Furthermore, the features and perceived utility of the Icelandic project governance structure are assessed by interviewing selected public stakeholders who are representatives of seven important organizations in the public sector. The study indicates that there is a significant difference between the frameworks where the Icelandic framework is lacking crucial elements of what constitutes best practices in modern project governance. In view of extensive plans for investments in infrastructure in the coming years, there is an urgent need for reforming the Icelandic project governance structure.

Introducing NARCliM1.5: Evaluation and projection of climate extremes for southeast Australia

NARCliM1.5 is the second generation of New South Wales and Australian Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM) project, which is designed to produce an ensemble of regional climate projections for CORDEX Australasia and southeast Australia. The selected global climate models (GCMs) are used to drive Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for dynamical downscaling. In this study, we evaluate how well the two generations of NARCliM (N1.0 and N1.5) represent the observed record for 12 selected climate extremes and examine their projected changes for southeast Australia. N1.5 ensemble substantially improves upon N1.0 in capturing the spatial patterns of precipitation extremes, however, there is little difference between the two ensembles for temperature extremes. Both N1.0 and N1.5 underestimate dry extreme (consecutive dry day - CDD), hot extremes (warmest daily maximum temperature – TXx, and number of days when maximum temperature is greater than 35 °C - TXge35) and daily temperature range (DTR) but overestimate wet extremes (annual sum of daily precipitation above 99th percentile - R99p, consecutive wet days - CWD, days when precipitation is at least 10 mm - R10mm, maximum 1-day precipitation - Rx1Day and total wet day precipitation -PRCPTOT) and cold extreme (coldest daily minimum temperature - TNn). N1.0 and N1.5 project different spatial patterns of future changes in precipitation extremes but similar changes in temperature extremes. Differences in climate extremes between N1.0 and N1.5 could be attributed to the driving GCMs. The combined future projections of both N1.0 and N1.5 provide a more complete sampling of the future change space. Future projections indicate that precipitation and temperature extremes will become more intense, raising implications for future planning and risk management.

MSDeveloper: A Variability-Guided Methodology for Microservice-Based Development

This article presents a microservice-based development approach, MSDeveloper (Microservices Developer), employing variability management for product configuration through a low-code development environment. The purpose of this approach is to offer a general-purpose environment for the easier development of families of products for different domains: a domain-oriented development environment is suggested, where domain developers and product developers can utilize the environment as a software ecosystem. Thus, genericity is offered through supporting different domains. A domain is populated with feature and process models and microservices in a layered architecture. Feature models drive the product configuration, which affects the process model and the microservice layer. An experimental study was conducted to validate the applicability of the approach and the usability of the development environment. Students from different courses were assigned system modeling projects where they utilized helper tools supporting the provided methodology. Furthermore, professional software developers were consulted about this recommended domain-oriented development environment. Feedback from student projects and professionals’ remarks are analyzed and discussed.

Context-Aware Ubiquitous Learning Based on Case Methods and Team-Based Projects: Design and Validation

Since the development of information and communication technology ‘learning media’ have been recognized as increasingly important courses by educators to assist students training to be professional teachers to understand the process of designing, developing, utilizing, managing, and evaluating learning resources. The context-aware ubiquitous learning approach design based on case methods and team-based projects has been proposed to guide activities in the student learning process. Therefore, this research aims to describe the design and determine the feasibility or validity of context-aware ubiquitous learning based on case methods and a team-based project model using the research and development (R&D) approach. The procedure consists of (1) model development and (2) product validation. It is important to note that the validation aspect involved five learning material/design experts, five ‘learning media’ experts, and 162 students from state and private universities in Indonesia after which the data obtained from experts and students were analyzed using the descriptive statistics. The results showed that the learning model designed is suitable for use in the student learning process.

Value Dominants of Professional Foreign Language Training: еnvironment approach

Axiology of professional training and learning languages, both national and international, is under thorough consideration in the aspect of novel dominant values – leadership in education, culture-oriented goals of professional teaching, fruitful results, professional and communicative skills, etc. Thus, this trend needs to create optimal conditions in terms of the developing safe educational spaces for improving the effect professional language training as a whole, and to neutralize some of the negative value effects of the present day global situations of polycultural world. Methodology of this research is focused on integrative approach – cognitive, competence, communication, culture, dominant values as the basic priorities for project methods and modeling development situations of authentic communication in the aspect of language and professional skills of students. The results determined in the threefold value dominant Model reflect on the developing safe educational spaces for improving Knowledge Content and Technology (Drama) that prove the positive fruitful effects of this micro survey in the frames of professional language education, training and learning via the authors’ textbook on “Teaching pronunciation through dramatization” in accordance with the content of evaluation funds that stimulate culture self-determination of a personality and formation of polyculture picture of the world. Teaching pronunciation is positioned as an integral component of phonetic and phonological competence. While the concept of “dramatization” is described in terms of significant professional skills as additional potential for support of psychological balance and intellectual element of professional education. In conclusion the effects of dramatization in the process of teaching pronunciation/training professional skills are summarized, and the prospects of using the authors’ findings in practical classes of a foreign language training are indicated to improve professional skills in the main types of speech activity.

Categorisation of Requirements in the Ontology-Based Framework for Employer Information Requirements (OntEIR)

Employer Information Requirements (EIR) are the keystone for developing a successful Building Information Modelling (BIM) project. However, clients’ lack of skill and experience in categorising and defining these requirements often undermines the performance of a construction project and, ultimately, the ability of the finished product to meet their needs. By definition, EIR shortcomings include incomplete and inconsistent requirements and specifications, and whilst some work has been performed to try to address these, this area is still underdeveloped. This paper reports on the development of a transformative approach to the categorisation of requirements in a meaningful way, enabling effective filtering so that stakeholders can access just the information they need for the task at hand. The Ontology-based framework for Employer Information Requirements (OntEIR) seeks to provide a step change in categorisation by identifying ‘static’ and ‘dynamic’ requirements, including related types and sub-types. OntEIR has been rigorously validated by a group of BIM experts, and the results have revealed that this approach to categorisation significantly improved the elicitation and understanding of requirements.

Impact of circular measures to reduce urban CO2 emissions: An analysis of four case studies through a production- and consumption-based emission accounting method

Cities are a major source of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs), but they can play a significant role in climate change mitigation by adopting and implementing GHG emission reduction plans, policies and measures. Circular economy measures are recognized to contribute significantly to decarbonization. However, in the literature there is a lack of quantitative analyses on circular measures in cities and their impact on urban GHG emissions.The paper aims to contribute to the literature on the relation between circular cities and climate change mitigation by focusing on circular interventions applicable in three high-impact sectors in cities: energy systems, mobility and built environment, in order to investigate their impacts in terms of emission reductions and contribution to decarbonization. The study covers four cities around the world accounting for more than 10 million of inhabitants and 2,000 km2 of metropolitan area: Bogotá, Colombia; Genoa and Milan, Italy; Glasgow, UK. The methodology uses a Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) modelling approach to develop production and consumption-based emission baselines for the four cities and to assess impacts of selected circular measures in the three sectors on the baselines. According to the in-depth analysis of the four considered urban contexts, the majority of the emissions generated by activities carried out within the urban borders are emitted outside the borders in the form of emissions scope 3, thus demonstrating how today's cities are large consumers of goods produced outside their borders, requiring the use of a consumption-based approach for emissions inventory. The results on the modelling of the GHG reduction impact of circular measures show that there is a relevant emission reduction potential in Scope 1 and 2 emissions in cities and highlight the need to prioritize decarbonization of electricity supply in order to ensure relevant emission reductions across the three sectors. The results also demonstrate the potential to reduce supply-chain Scope 3 emissions through urban measures.

Closing the Implementation Gap Comment on "Insights Gained From a Re-analysis of Five Improvement Cases in Healthcare Integrating System Dynamics Into Action Research".

Holmström et al provide an interesting and thought-provoking contribution to a perennial problem: why, despite a vast number of applications of simulation modelling in healthcare over the past 70 years, there is still remarkably little evidence of successful implementation of model results. Their paper is a retrospective analysis of five case studies, all undertaken as consultancy, that used a blend of system dynamics (SD) modelling and action research (AR). This commentary assesses the effectiveness of this approach in achieving implementation, based on the evidence presented, and discusses some of the issues raised. These issues include a comparison of Holmström's approach with group model building (GMB) in SD, the differences between healthcare modelling projects undertaken by (a) business consultants and (b) academics, and the challenges of undertaking 'systematic' reviews of the grey literature.