Debris Flow Model Research Articles

Debris Flow Modeling of the Chandmari and Sichey Landslides in Sikkim, India, Using the Distinct Element Method

Debris Flow Modeling of the Chandmari and Sichey Landslides in Sikkim, India, Using the Distinct Element Method

Physics-based modeling of debris flows and assessing the performance of effective mitigation measures

BackgroundClimate change-induced geohazards are increasingly posing a critical threat to the sustained functionality and resilience of constructed infrastructures. Among these hazards, debris flows represent significant natural disasters, particularly in mountainous terrains, causing widespread property damage and loss of life globally. These phenomena involve complex interactions between solid and fluid forces, resulting in long run-out distances and high-speed flows. Predicting and monitoring debris flows is challenging due to the intricate interplay of these forces.ObjectiveThe objective of this study is to evaluate the structural damage caused by debris flows and assess the efficacy of rigid barrier structures with passages/apertures.MethodEmploying Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics, a Lagrange-based mesh-free computational technique, the researchers simulated the impact of debris on a stiff structure. The focus was on the Rishiganga river valley in the Indian state of Uttarakhand, a region recently devastated by a debris flow that severely compromised essential infrastructure, including a hydroelectric power station. The research entailed modeling the debris flow in this specific locale and analyzing its effects on an assumed downstream rigid structure. Additionally, the study explored the outcomes of introducing a rigid barrier upstream.Results and ConclusionResults indicated a substantial reduction in the impact on the downstream structure with the presence of an upstream rigid structure. Moreover, as the number of apertures in the upstream barrier was increased, the impact of flow on the downstream structure further diminished, because of a more streamlined flow pattern.

Comparison of Different Numerical Methods in Modeling of Debris Flows—Case Study in Selanac (Serbia)

Flow-type landslides are not typical in this region of the Balkans. However, after the Tamara cyclone event in 2014, numerous such occurrences have been observed in Serbia. This paper presents the initial results of a detailed investigation into debris flows in Serbia, comparing findings from two programs: RAMMS DBF and Geoflow SPH. Located in Western Serbia, the Selanac debris flow is a complex event characterized by significant depths in the initial block and entrainment zone. Previous field investigations utilized ERT surveys, supplemented by laboratory tests, to characterize material behavior. Approximately 450,000 m3 of material began to flow following an extreme precipitation period, ultimately traveling 1.2 km to the deposition zone. For validation purposes, ERT profiles from both the deposition zone and the source area were utilized, with particular attention given to areas where entrainment was substantial, as this had a significant impact on the final models. The first objective of this research is to conduct a detailed investigation of debris flow using field investigations: geophysical (ERT) and aerial photogrammetry. The second objective is to evaluate the capacity of two debris flow propagation models to simulate the reality of these phenomena. The GeoFlow-SPH code overestimated the maximum propagation thickness in comparison to the RAMMS model. The numerical results regarding final depths closely align, especially when considering the estimated average depth in the deposition zone. The results confirm the necessity of using multiple simulation codes to more accurately predict specific events.

Probabilistic Cascade Modeling for Enhanced Flood and Landslide Hazard Assessment: Integrating Multi-Model Approaches in the La Liboriana River Basin

Extreme rainfall events in Andean basins frequently trigger landslides, obstructing river channels and causing flash flows, loss of lives, and economic damage. This study focused on improving the modeling of these events to enhance risk management, specifically in the La Liboriana basin in Salgar (Colombia). A cascading modeling methodology was developed, integrating the spatially distributed rainfall intensities, hazard zoning with the SLIDE model, propagation modeling with RAMMS using calibrated soil rheological parameters, the distributed hydrological model TETIS, and flood mapping with IBER. Return periods of 2.33, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years were defined and applied throughout the methodology. A specific extreme event (18 May 2015) was modeled for calibration and comparison. The spatial rainfall intensities indicated maximum concentrations in the northwestern upper basin and southeastern lower basin. Six landslide hazard maps were generated, predicting landslide-prone areas with a slightly above random prediction rate for the 2015 event. The RAMMS debris flow modeling involved 30 simulations, indicating significant deposition within the river channel and modifying the terrain. Hydraulic modeling with the IBER model revealed water heights ranging from 0.23 to 7 m and velocities from 0.34 m/s to 6.98 m/s, with urban areas showing higher values, indicating increased erosion and infrastructure damage potential.

Analysis of Debris Flow Protective Barriers Using the Coupled Eulerian Lagrangian Method

Protective structures play a vital role in mitigating the risks associated with debris flows, yet assessing their performance poses crucial challenges for their real-world effectiveness. This study proposes a comprehensive procedure for evaluating the performance of protective structures exposed to impacts from media transported by large debris flow events. The method combines numerical modelling with site conditions for existing structures along the Hobart Rivulet in Tasmania, Australia. The Coupled Eulerian Lagrangian (CEL) model was validated by comparing simulation results with experimental data, demonstrating high agreement. Utilising three-dimensional modelling of debris flow–boulder interactions over the Hobart Rivulet terrain, boulder velocities were estimated for subsequent finite element analyses. Importantly, a model of interaction between boulders and I-beam posts was established, facilitating a comparative assessment of five distinct I-beam barrier systems defined as Type A to E, which are currently in use at the site. Simulation results reveal larger boulders display a slower increase in their velocities over the 3D terrain. Introducing a key metric, the failure ratio, enable a mechanism for comparative assessments of these barrier systems. Notably, the Type E barriers demonstrate superior performance due to fewer weak points within the structure. The combined CEL and FE assessments allow for multiple aspects of the interactions between debris flows, boulders, and structures to be considered, including structural failure and deformability, to enhance the understanding of debris flow risk mitigation in Tasmania.

Modeling fast flows with variable water content: A depth-integrated SPH approach

Water content is one important factor on which velocities, heights, and runout of debris flows and similar phenomena depend. To this purpose, we need two ingredients (i) a mathematical model describing the incorporation of water into the moving soil, which results in a change of water content, and (ii) a rheological model with properties depending on the water content. Modeling of such problems can be done either by using either a: (i) two phases approach, where velocities of solid and water may be different, using two sets of nodes, or (ii) two phases approach where velocities of both are assumed to be the same, using a single set of nodes. In both cases, the models have to implement a mechanism for the water inflow -or outflow-. We will modify both types of two phases models (one or two sets of nodes for solid and water) to include the change of water content due to water inflow. Implementation in the SPH requires extending the algorithm and updating the smoothing length because it is based on the mass of particles and their relative position. Updating the smoothing length when only changes mass is to be avoided. Regarding the rheological model, we will introduce a new model for frictional debris flows implementing a Voellmy coefficient which depends on water content. Alternatively, we will propose a more consistent model based on Bagnold’s idea of introducing a 1D concentration parameter (λ). Finally, we will illustrate the proposed model capability with two examples, a dam break problem, and a real case in El Salvador where the water content played an important role in the propagation properties of a debris flow.

An alternative approach for the sediment control of in-channel stony debris flows with an application to the case study of Ru Secco Creek (Venetian Dolomites, Northeast Italy)

Controlling sediment to reduce debris-flow hazard is generally approached using retention basins that can be closed or have an outlet structure, generally an open check dam. They are usually placed in mild slope zones that allow minimal works for the excavation and the foundation of the outlet structure if present. Recently, it has been shown that the detention of sediments can also be achieved in the high-sloping reaches of debris-flow channels using deposition areas, basins that are open on the downstream side. In this work, we propose an approach for controlling the sediment volume transported by debris flows consisting of a cascade of deposition areas and retention basins. We also include a framework for planning, sizing, and checking the works. Two scenarios are considered, corresponding to the maximum values of the debris-flow peak discharge and volume, respectively. Moreover, the presence or absence of boulders is also considered. For this purpose, a method that evaluates the clogging of a single open check dam as a function of the coarse fraction of the sediment volume is simply extended to the case of multiple dams and implemented in a routing model. The proposed approach is applied along Ru Secco Creek in northeast Italy to defend a resort area and a village hit by a high-magnitude debris flow in 2015. After a careful survey and study, a solution with a combination of deposition areas and retention basins is planned and sized. The validity and performance of the proposed solution are analyzed using debris-flow modeling for two scenarios, considering both the absence and presence of boulders. Most of the sediment volume transported by debris flows is trapped, and a small solid discharge flows downstream of the works.

Rainfall-Triggered Landslides and Numerical Modeling of Subsequent Debris Flows at Kalli Village of Suntar Formation in the Lesser Himalayas in Nepal

Hazardous debris flows are common in the tectonically active young Himalayas. The present study is focused on the recurrent, almost seasonal, landslides and debris flows initiated from Kalli village in Achham District of Nepal, located in the Lesser Himalayas. Such geological hazards pose a significant threat to the neighboring communities. The field survey reveals vulnerable engineering geological conditions and adverse environmental factors in the study area. It is found that a typical complete debris transport process may consist of two stages depending on the rainfall intensity. In the first stage, debris flows mobilized from a landslide have low mobility and their runout distance is quite modest; in the second stage, with an increase in water content they are able to travel a longer distance. Numerical simulations based on a multi-phase flow model are conducted to analyze the characteristics of the debris flows in motion, including the debris deposition profiles and runout distances in both stages. Overall, the numerical results are reasonably consistent with relevant field observations. Future debris flows may likely occur again in this area due to the presence of large soil blocks separated by tension cracks, rampant in the field; numerical simulations predict that these potential debris flows may exhibit similar characteristics to past events.

A Case Study and Numerical Modeling of Post-Wildfire Debris Flows in Montecito, California

Wildfires and their long-term impacts on the environment have become a major concern in the last few decades, in which climate change and enhanced anthropogenic activities have gradually led to increasingly frequent events of such hazards or disasters. Geological materials appear to become more vulnerable to hazards including erosion, floods, landslides and debris flows. In the present study, the well-known 2017 wildfire and subsequent 2018 debris flows in the Montecito area of California are examined. It is found that the post-wildfire debris flows were initiated from erosion and entrainment processes and triggered by intense rainfall. The significant debris deposition in four major creeks in this area is investigated. Numerical modeling of the post-wildfire debris flows is performed by employing a multi-phase mass flow model to simulate the growth in the debris flows and eventual debris deposition. The debris-flow-affected areas estimated from the numerical simulations fairly represent those observed in the field. Overall, the simulated debris deposits are within 7% error of those estimated based on field observations. A similar simulation of the pre-wildfire scenario indicates that the debris would be much less significant. The present study shows that proper numerical simulations can be a promising tool for estimating post-wildfire erosion and the debris-affected areas for hazard assessment and mitigation.

Evaluation of debris-flow building damage forecasts

Abstract. Reliable forecasts of building damage due to debris flows may provide situational awareness and guide land and emergency management decisions. Application of debris-flow runout models to generate such forecasts requires combining hazard intensity predictions with fragility functions that link hazard intensity with building damage. In this study, we evaluated the performance of building damage forecasts for the 9 January 2018 Montecito postfire debris-flow runout event, in which over 500 buildings were damaged. We constructed forecasts using either peak debris-flow depth or momentum flux as the hazard intensity measure and applied each approach using three debris-flow runout models (RAMMS, FLO-2D, and D-Claw). Generated forecasts were based on averaging multiple simulations that sampled a range of debris-flow volume and mobility, reflecting typical sources and magnitude of pre-event uncertainty. We found that only forecasts made with momentum flux and the D-Claw model could correctly predict the observed number of damaged buildings and the spatial patterns of building damage. However, the best forecast only predicted 50 % of the observed damaged buildings correctly and had coherent spatial patterns of incorrectly predicted building damage (i.e., false positives and false negatives). These results indicate that forecasts made at the building level reliably reflect the spatial pattern of damage but do not support interpretation at the individual building level. We found the event size strongly influences the number of damaged buildings and the spatial pattern of debris-flow depth and velocity. Consequently, future research on the link between precipitation and the volume of sediment mobilized may have the greatest effect on reducing uncertainty in building damage forecasts. Finally, because we found that both depth and velocity are needed to predict building damage, comparing debris-flow models against spatially distributed observations of building damage is a more stringent test for model fidelity than comparison against the extent of debris-flow runout.

Slump-flow channel test for evaluating the relations between spreading and rheological parameters of sediment mixtures

Understanding debris flow phenomena and modeling them effectively requires accurate estimation of their rheological parameters. This study introduces a simple approach defined as the “slump-flow channel test”, which employs a horizontal rectangular channel to evaluate these parameters. The results of slump-flow channel tests indicate that the spreading parameters (spread length, angle of reach, and time to final spread) of sediment mixtures are strongly influenced by their sediment fractions and rheological properties. An empirical analysis of the temporal evolution of the spread length and spread velocity was carried out employing both experimental and simulation results. The numerical simulation of the slump-flow channel tests was performed using the Flow-3D software. Both experimental and simulation results demonstrate that the spreading and the rheological parameters of sediment mixtures exhibit strong correlations and this implies that the rheological parameters of sediment mixtures can be evaluated indirectly using a simple slump-flow channel test.

A landscape scale model to predict post-fire debris flow impact zones

Post-fire debris flows pose a significant hazard in mountainous regions, but accurate assessment of the associated risk at large scales, particularly in the context of mega-fires, is limited. Although numerous models exist, few are functional at the landscape scale, and none integrate assessments of downstream effects with the likelihood of flow initiation to define both the frequency and magnitude of potential flows. The aim of this work, therefore, was to develop a post-fire debris flow model that could characterise both the occurrence frequency and associated runout of debris flow events and which could be rapidly applied to fire events at the landscape scale. We achieve this using a model integration approach that included the development of a reduced-complexity debris flow runout model, which was calibrated and independently tested for its application at large scales with a dataset of 1377 individual post-fire flows across south-eastern Australia. This model was then integrated with previously published methods determining debris flow source areas and likelihood of initiation specific to our study area. The developed model is intentionally designed for rapid response hazard management. Therefore, it predominantly incorporates only the fundamental, lowest parameter form drivers of debris flow initiation and runout termination, thus minimising computational complexity while ensuring prediction accuracy sufficient for hazard assessment even at application scales as large as mega-fires. Accounting for debris flows initiated from single headwaters and cases where flows simultaneously converge from multiple initiation points, our integrated model effectively characterises debris flow hazard across a geomorphologically diverse landscape encompassing >200,000km2 (capturing ~640,000 potential debris flow initiation locations across Victoria, Australia). Model testing using an independent validation dataset resulted in debris flow runout predictions with root mean square error (RMSE) of 176 and 308 m for non-convergent and convergent flows respectively. Crucially, these predictions can be computed rapidly for large (up to landscape scale) fire events with minimal input requirements and the use of a remotely-sensed observation dataset for domain calibration. As such, the model provides a critical means of addressing the capacity gap in assessments of post-fire debris flow hazard by efficiently integrating measures of occurrence frequency and runout for functional application at large scales. This new work empowers land managers to rapidly predict the hazard arising from post-fire erosion processes and represents an important applied step towards better understanding and mitigating the impacts of wildfire-induced debris flows.

Fiber Bragg grating-based flume tests for inversing the impact force coefficient of debris flow

In the piezoelectric sensor-based debris flow flume tests, the impact force coefficient (k) obtained from inversion has a significant dispersion range, which causes considerable uncertainty in the debris flow impact force. To reduce the dispersion range of k, this study designed a new measurement system by integrating the Fiber Bragg Grating (FBG) and the elastic cantilever beam as the core sensing unit. The impact of debris flows on the sensing unit causes the bending deformation of the cantilever beam, which subsequently causes the wavelength shift of the FBG fixed on the cantilever beam. The optical signals are converted into the dynamic strain signals of the cantilever beam using the photosensitive characteristic of the FBG. According to the mechanical characteristics of the cantilever beam and the Bingham model of debris flow, the method of inversing k using the strain signals was proposed. Based on the FBG sensor system, 45 tests were conducted under different working conditions. The inversion model obtained 38 sets of k by analyzing the test data. The standard deviation and dispersion coefficient of k were 0.4 and 0.25, respectively, making the k in the range of 0.9 to 2.8, which was superior to the k derived from the traditional measurement mode.

Numerical-model-derived intensity–duration thresholds for early warning of rainfall-induced debris flows in a Himalayan catchment

Abstract. Debris flows triggered by rainfall are catastrophic geohazards that occur compounded during extreme events. Few early warning systems for shallow landslides and debris flows at the territorial scale use thresholds of rainfall intensity–duration (ID). ID thresholds are mostly defined using hourly rainfall. Due to instrumental and operational challenges, current early warning systems have difficulty forecasting sub-daily time series of weather for landslides in the Himalayas. Here, we present a framework that employs a spatio-temporal numerical model preceded by the Weather Research And Forecast (WRF) Model for analysing debris flows induced by rainfall. The WRF model runs at 1.8 km × 1.8 km resolution to produce hourly rainfall. The hourly rainfall is then used as an input boundary condition in the spatio-temporal numerical model for debris flows. The debris flow model is an updated version of Van Asch et al. (2014) in which sensitivity to volumetric water content, moisture-content-dependent hydraulic conductivity, and seepage routines are introduced within the governing equations. The spatio-temporal numerical model of debris flows is first calibrated for the mass movements in the Kedarnath catchment that occurred during the 2013 North India floods. Various precipitation intensities based on the glossary of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) are set, and parametric numerical simulations are run identifying ID thresholds of debris flows. Our findings suggest that the WRF model combined with the debris flow numerical model shall be used to establish ID thresholds in territorial landslide early warning systems (Te-LEWSs).

Granular-fluid avalanches: the role of vertical structure and velocity shear

Field observations of debris flows often show that a deep dry granular front is followed by a progressively thinner and increasingly watery tail. These features have been captured in recent laboratory flume experiments (Taylor-Noonan et al., J. Geophys. Res.: Earth Surf., vol. 127, 2022, e2022JF006622). In these experiments different initial release volumes were used to investigate the dynamics of an undersaturated monodisperse grain–water mixture as it flowed downslope onto a horizontal run-out pad. Corresponding dry granular flows, with the same particle release volumes, were also studied to show the effect of the interstitial fluid. The inclusion of water makes debris flows much more mobile than equivalent volumes of dry grains. In the wet flows, the formation of a dry front is crucially dependent on the heterogeneous vertical structure of the flow and the velocity shear. These effects are included in the depth-averaged theory of Meng et al. (J. Fluid Mech., vol. 943, 2022, A19), which is used in this paper to quantitatively simulate both the wet and dry experimental flows using a high-resolution shock-capturing scheme. The results show that velocity shear causes dry grains (located near the free surface) to migrate forwards to create a dry front. The front is more resistant to motion than the more watery material behind, which reduces the overall computed run-out distance compared with debris-flow models that assume plug flow and develop only small dry snouts. Velocity shear also implies that there is a net transport of water to the back of the flow. This creates a thin oversaturated tail that is unstable to roll waves in agreement with experimental observations.

Preliminary Investigation on the Kinetic Characteristics of the Glacial Debris Flows in Tianmo Valley, Tibet Plateau, China

AbstractGlacial debris flows occurring on the Tibetan Plateau consistently result in significant property damage and loss of human life. A comprehensive field investigation was conducted in Tianmo valley along the Sichuan‐Tibet Highway to reveal the dynamics of a debris flow that occurred on 11 July 2018. Furthermore, a depth‐averaged multiphase debris flow model was proposed and employed to reconstruct the characteristics of the debris flow. The model derivation, implementation, evaluation, and application were presented to demonstrate its performance. The Voellmy model was chosen because it adequately accounts for both basal frictional effects and the entrainment phenomenon. The entrainment processes, the ice melting, and the lubrication effect, were also taken into consideration. Based on the numerical results combined with field investigation data, the kinetic characteristics of the glacial debris flow were analyzed. The Tianmo valley has a small area, but the volume and erosion rate of debris flows were much larger than that of two‐phase debris flows in the same location due to ice melting. The simulation results demonstrated that the glacial debris reached a peak velocity of 20 m/s. Additionally, the volume of the debris flow increased by 50% due to the erosion over a short runout distance of approximately 4,000 m. This increase was a result of the high velocity and abundant entrainment sources on the slope. This study aims to improve understanding of the high velocity and destructive potential of debris flows in the Tianmo valley.

Copula-Based Probabilistic Hazard Assessment Model for Debris Flow Considering the Uncertainties of Multiple Influencing Factors

This paper proposes a probabilistic hazard assessment model for debris flows considering the uncertainties of multiple influencing factors based on copula approaches. Fifty-nine rainfall-induced debris flows occurred between 2001 and 2009 in Taiwan are taken as an illustrative example to validate the proposed approaches. A copula-based probabilistic model is developed to model the joint probability distribution of debris-flow volume V and its influencing factors (e.g., rainfall intensity, RI and landslide area, AL). The developed model is then used to make probabilistic prediction of debris-flow volume for a specific hazard level, and compared with the empirical approaches. The proposed probabilistic model is also used to develop the exceedance probability charts of quantities for a specific debris-flow basin. Results show that the developed V–RI–AL probabilistic model can provide reasonable estimates of debris-flow volume in Taiwan for a specific probability level of 0.94, and show better predictive performance than the empirical relationships by using an independent debris-flow dataset in Taiwan for validation. The developed multivariate joint probabilistic model can also provide the exceedance probability of debris flows through considering the uncertainties of debris flow and its influencing factors, providing a preliminary reference for hazard assessment of the debris flows.

Modeling Multiphase Debris Floods Down Straight and Meandering Channels

Natural debris floods travel in straight and meandering courses. The flow behaviour greatly depends on the volume fractions of solid and fluid, as well as on their dynamic interactions with the channel geometry. For the quasi three-dimensional simulations of flow dynamics and mass transport of these floods through meandering and straight channels, we employ a two-phase debris flow model to carry out simulations for debris floods within straight and sine-generated meandering channels of different amplitudes. The results for different sinuous meandering paths are compared with that in the straight one in terms of phase velocity, downslope advection and dispersion, depths of the maxima, deposition of mass, position of front and rear parts of the solid and fluid phases, and also the flow dynamics out of the conduits. The results reveal the slowing of the flow and increase of momentary deposition of the mixture mass in the vicinity of the bends along with the increasing sinuosity. The numerical experiments are useful to better understand the dynamics of debris floods down meandering channels as seen in the natural paths of the rivers as well as already existing channels like episodic rivers in hilly regions. The results can be extended to propose some appropriate mitigation strategies.

Numerical Modelling and Sensitivity Analysis of the Pitztal Valley Debris Flow Event

Debris flows characterized by their rapid velocity and composition of water, mud, soil, and boulders, have the potential to inflict significant harm and present hazards to human life, infrastructure, and the natural surroundings. Numerical simulations provide a cost-effective approach for investigating different scenarios, hence boosting comprehension of flow dynamics and interactions. However, accurate modelling of these flows typically face difficult challenges arising from inherent modeling constraints and insufficient historical event data. The primary objective of the present study is to conduct numerical modeling and sensitivity analysis of the debris flow event that occurred in the Pitztal Valley, Austria in August of 2009, based on a multi-phase model for debris flows. The validation of the simulation results involves the comparison with the observed deposition patterns in the field. Various validation factors are employed to evaluate the accuracy of the simulated deposit and demonstrate a satisfactory level of precision in predicting deposition patterns. A sensitivity analysis is also conducted to examine the influence of in situ conditions on the effects of debris flow. The results demonstrate that numerical modelling can play an important role in engineering hazard assessment by analyzing the existing model’s effectiveness in simulating both historical and projected debris flow events.

Simulating glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) with a two-phase/layer debris flow model considering fluid-solid flow transitions

AbstractGlacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) initiate with the rapid outburst of a glacier lake, endangering downstream populations, land, and infrastructure. The flow initiates as a mud flow; however, with the entrainment of additional solid material, the flood will often transform into a debris flow. As the run-out slope flattens, the coarse solid material deposits and the flow de-waters. The flow transforms back into a muddy, hyperconcentrated flow of fine sediments in suspension. These flow transitions change the flow composition dramatically and influence both the overall mass balance and flow rheology of the event. In this paper, we apply a two-phase/layer model to simulate flow transitions, solid–fluid phase separations, entrainment, and run-out distances of glacier lake outburst floods. A key feature of the model is the calculation of dilatant actions in the solid–fluid mixture which control flow transitions and phase separations. Given their high initial amount of fluid within the flow, GLOFs are sensitive to slope changes inducing flow transitions, which also implies changes in the flow rheology. The changes in the rheology are computed as a function of the flow composition and do not need any adaptation by ad-hoc selection of friction coefficients. This procedure allows the application of constant rheological input parameters from initiation to run-out. Our goal is to increase the prediction reliability of debris flow modeling. We highlight the problems associated with initial and boundary (entrainment) conditions. We test the new model against the well-known Lake 513 (Peru, 2010), Lake Palcacocha (Peru, 1941), and Lake Uchitel in the Aksay Valley (Kyrgyzstan) GLOF events. We show that flow transition modeling is essential when studying areas that have significant variations in slope.