Model Of Turnout Research Articles

Closed Form Bayesian Inferences for Binary Logistic Regression with Applications to American Voter Turnout

Understanding the factors that influence voter turnout is a fundamentally important question in public policy and political science research. Bayesian logistic regression models are useful for incorporating individual level heterogeneity to answer these and many other questions. When these questions involve incorporating individual level heterogeneity for large data sets that include many demographic and ethnic subgroups, however, standard Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling methods to estimate such models can be quite slow and impractical to perform in a reasonable amount of time. We present an innovative closed form Empirical Bayesian approach that is significantly faster than MCMC methods, thus enabling the estimation of voter turnout models that had previously been considered computationally infeasible. Our results shed light on factors impacting voter turnout data in the 2000, 2004, and 2008 presidential elections. We conclude with a discussion of these factors and the associated policy implications. We emphasize, however, that although our application is to the social sciences, our approach is fully generalizable to the myriads of other fields involving statistical models with binary dependent variables and high-dimensional parameter spaces as well.

Analytical representations of inherent structural irregularities in turnout crossing with moveable point

The inherent structural irregularities in turnouts are an impact source during train passing. The position of the wheel–rail contact point on the rails and the wheel trajectory can help reveal the characteristics of such structural irregularities. In this work, for a given nominal turnout, several parameterised single harmonic-shaped functions are selected as analytical representations to describe the inherent structural irregularities in a crossing with moveable point using multiobjective optimisation. The objective of the optimisation is achieved by ensuring that the responses of the analytical representation applied to a plain track are close to those of the turnout model under the constraint of maximum and minimum wheel–rail contact forces as well as a correlation coefficient. Thus, a plain track with irregularity functions can be considered an equivalent model to enable a fast modelling procedure and efficient assessment of vehicles. For a robust design in different traffic situations, two stochastic variables, namely the rail pad stiffness and axle load, are selected and are found to be significant. The influence of the random distributions of the input parameters on the statistical outputs of the wheel–rail contact forces is assessed using a descriptive sampling technique for several stochastic realizations.

The natural environment and social cohesion: Tree planting is associated with increased voter turnout in Portland, Oregon

Research suggests that social cohesion partially mediates the health benefits of being exposed to the natural environment. However, past studies have relied on self-reported measures of social cohesion that have well-documented limitations. Therefore, we evaluate the impact of tree planting on social cohesion using voter-turnout data as an objective metric of social cohesion. Our study area is the 141 Census tracts in Multnomah County, Oregon that fall within (>50% area) the City of Portland. We used biennial primary and general-election turnout data from 2002 to 2020, and tree-planting data from the Portland based non-profit Friends of Trees. We estimated mixed models of voter turnout including tract-level random effects and controlling for socioeconomic status. Voter turnout and tree planting may be codetermined, so lagged tree-planting variables were used in all regression models. We found that each tree planted 10–11 years before an election was associated with a 0.020% (95% CI: 0.013–0.027) increase in general election turnout and a 0.016% (95% CI: 0.0089–0.023) increase in primary turnout. As the length of the planting lag decreased, the association between tree planting and voter turnout, in both primary and general elections, declined in significance and magnitude. Our results add to the body of evidence suggesting that social cohesion partially mediates the health benefits of exposure to the natural environment.

Can Raising the Stakes of Election Outcomes Increase Participation? Results from a Large-Scale Field Experiment in Local Elections

AbstractPolitical campaigns frequently emphasize the material stakes at play in election outcomes to motivate participation. However, field-experimental academic work has given greater attention to other aspects of voters' decisions to participate despite theoretical models of turnout and substantial observational work signaling that a contest's perceived importance affects the propensity to vote. We identify two classes of treatments that may increase the material incentive to participate and test these messages in a large-scale placebo-controlled field experiment in which approximately 24,500 treatment letters were delivered during Connecticut's 2013 municipal elections. We find some evidence that these messages are effective in increasing participation, as well as that some of them may be more effective than typical nonpartisan get-out-the-vote appeals. While these results remain somewhat preliminary, our findings have important implications for our understanding of how voters decide whether to participate and how best to mobilize citizens who would otherwise sit out elections.

How a minority can win: Unrepresentative outcomes in a simple model of voter turnout.

The outcome of an election depends not only on which candidate is more popular, but also on how many of their voters actually turn out to vote. Here we consider a simple model in which voters abstain from voting if they think their vote would not matter. Specifically, they do not vote if they feel sure their preferred candidate will win anyway (a condition we call complacency), or if they feel sure their candidate will lose anyway (a condition we call dejectedness). The voters reach these decisions based on a myopic assessment of their local network, which they take as a proxy for the entire electorate: voters know which candidate their neighbors prefer and they assume-perhaps incorrectly-that those neighbors will turn out to vote, so they themselves cast a vote if and only if it would produce a tie or a win for their preferred candidate in their local neighborhood. We explore various network structures and distributions of voter preferences and find that certain structures and parameter regimes favor unrepresentative outcomes where a minority faction wins, especially when the locally preferred candidate is not representative of the electorate as a whole.

Voter turnout in direct democracy: A joint analysis of individual, referendum and community factors

AbstractIn the context of an ever growing importance and usage of referendums around the globe, this article provides a comprehensive approach to analyse the determinants of participation in direct democratic votes. In the absence of conclusive empirical evidence about which factors drive direct democratic participation, studies tend to adopt election‐specific findings and assume the determinants of electoral turnout to equally apply for referendums. Yet, a strict empirical test of these numerous determinants in a referendum context is still missing. By examining aspects stemming from both election‐specific and referendum‐specific contexts, this article aims to first test the applicability of common electoral theories of turnout for direct democratic participation and second to analyse the relevance of each factor when simultaneously examined with other contextual and individual factors. This holistic approach represents reality as adequate as possible, that is, to consider various factors that may simultaneously influence the individual decision to vote. Next to individual variables, the analysis particularly focuses on two contextual levels, the community a person lives in and factors linked to a given referendum. The discussion and joint analysis of competing factors addresses the problem of underspecified turnout models, which commonly prevents a detailed assessment of the relative importance of the determinants of turnout. The study uses registered data from the canton of Geneva, Switzerland, which provides official information about individual participation across 43 referendums in 45 communities. We match this individual data with referendum‐related factors, such as campaign intensity and importance of the issues at stake, and community‐level variables, such as wealth and urbanization. The results of our multilevel, cross‐classified models show significant context‐related effects, stemming mainly from the referendum and less from the community level. Still, the main driver of direct democratic participation is individual determinants, in particular citizens' past participation record.

Numerical investigation of dynamic derailment behavior of railway vehicle when passing through a turnout

Wheel flange climb derailment of vehicles in railway turnouts is a serious safety issue. In particular, derailment accidents in smaller turnouts, caused by poor track alignment before the turnout or structural degradation, are becoming more and more frequent. Most of the previous research on derailment has focused on main track areas, while the dynamic derailment mechanism for turnouts is still not clear. For this reason, a field derailment investigation of freight wagons in No.6 symmetrical turnouts is presented in this paper. Taking this into consideration, a half-car multi-body dynamics model and flexible turnout model, subject to wheel flange climb derailment, has been established. In addition, a field test for wheel-rail interaction was carried out to verify the dynamic model. This model is capable of revealing derailment evolution of the front and rear wheelset for a bogie under critical derailment conditions. The influence of several sensitive parameters of the derailment model on critical derailment behavior has been carried out. Results show that the simulation results of the wheel climb derailment are very consistent with the filed investigation, and the safety of the bogie depends on the status of both front and rear wheelset. This work is a world first in providing a solid understanding of dynamic derailment behavior and motion posture, giving guidance on the prevention of wheel flange derailment in turnout areas.

Conceptions of national identity, turnout and party preference: Evidence from Germany

AbstractAs globalisation makes national boundaries both permeable and contested, conflicts over national identity and related policy issues are bound to increase the salience of citizens' individual national identitiesand, consequently, increase their impact on political attitudes and behaviour. We study the link between ethnocultural and civic dimensions of national identity and turnout and party preferences. After providing a theoretical discussion that integrates conceptions of national identity into established models of turnout and party preference formation, we explore the merit of accounting for these conceptions of national identity in a case study of Germany. Analysing data from two surveys conducted in the period between 2015 and 2017, we show that acceptance of civic criteria of national identity was positively associated with turnout and partisan support for all German parties besides the AfD. Acceptance of ethnocultural criteria was associated with increased support for (centre‐) right and decreased support for (centre‐) left parties. Some of these patterns differ significantly and in predictable ways between the two data points bracketing the height of the European refugee crisis. These findings suggest that individual conceptions of national identity may be of importance for our understanding turnout decisions and party preferences, but the specific relationships presumably depend on contextual conditions.

What can we learn from open questions in surveys? A case study on non-voting reported in the 2013 German longitudinal election study

Open survey questions are often used to evaluate closed questions. However, they can fulfil this function only if there is a strong link between answers to open questions and answers to related closed questions. Using reasons for non-voting reported in the German Longitudinal Election Study 2013, we investigated this link by examining whether the reported reasons for non-voting may be substantive reasons or ex-post legitimations. We tested five theoretically derived hypotheses about respondents who gave, or did not give, a specific reason. Results showed that (a) answers to open questions were indeed related to answers to closed questions and could be used in explanatory turnout models to predict voting behavior, and (b) the relationship between answers to open and closed questions and the predictive power of reasons given in response to the open questions were stronger in the post-election survey (reported behavior) than in the pre-election survey (intended behavior).

Political efficacy and the persistence of turnout shocks

AbstractWhether voter turnout is sticky, that is, whether turnout shocks persist over time, is important both for the evaluation of institutional reforms and to inform about assumptions in behavioral models of turnout. This study examines an exogenous and large turnout boost caused by combining a high‐office with a low‐office election, but does not find that this contemporaneous turnout boost per se persists at subsequent, nonconcurrent low‐office elections. Heterogeneity analyses rather show that the effect is conditional on the closeness of the low‐office election: Close elections lead to positive turnout persistence, while clearly decided races even discourage from voting in the next election. An explanation is that the turnout boost causes voters to update their beliefs about the probability of being pivotal.

Voting Behavior of Active Duty Military Spouses: Trends in Interest and Participation

Despite the expansion of absentee voting protections as recently as 2016, Service member spouses have not enjoyed the same level of voting protections as Service members. Active duty military spouses, uniquely positioned between military service and civilian life, are arguably as important to the election process as their Service member counterparts. Thus, we examine the voting behaviors of this underserved and seldom studied subpopulation. Matsusaka’s information theory–based economic model of voter turnout provides our framework for identifying determinants that shape the voting interest and participation of active duty military spouses. We analyze the Federal Voting Assistance Program’s 2010 Post-Election Voting Survey of Active Duty Military Spouses utilizing logistic regression models. We found that voting interest and participation were increased among respondents who planned to vote, received more election information, voted within the previous 6 years, and who were older; however, voting interest and participation were not diminished by absentee status.

Regional Heterogeneity and U.S. Presidential Elections

This paper develops a recursive model of voter turnout and voting outcomes at U.S. county level to investigate the socioeconomic determinants of recent U.S. presidential elections. It is shown that the relationship between many socioeconomic variables and voting outcomes is not uniform across U.S. regions. By allowing for regional heterogeneity and using high-dimensional variable selection algorithms, we can explain and correctly predict the unexpected 2016 Republican victory. Key factors explaining voting outcomes include incumbency effects, voter turnout, local economic performance, un-employment, poverty, educational attainment, house price changes, urban-rural scores, and international competitiveness. Our results corroborate evidence of 'short-memory' among voters: economic fluctuations realized a few months prior to the election are indeed powerful predictors of voting outcomes as compared to their longer- term analogues. The paper then presents real time forecasts for the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election based on data available at the end of July 2020 which are then updated based on data available as of mid-October.

A prospect-theory model of voter turnout

We incorporate prospect-theory preferences in a game-theoretic model to study voter turnout. We show that voter turnout is heavily affected by agents having subjective reference points with respect to the vote or abstain decision and their subjective probability weighting in the decision-making process. Using empirically based parameter values, we show that our model has lower prediction error than other game-theoretic models with standard expected-utility preferences. We also find that our model maintains desirable comparative statics effects and leads to higher turnout predictions in larger electorates.

A study of the effects of obesity and poor health on the relationship between distance to the polling station and the probability to vote

This article explores the moderating effects of body obesity and subjective health status on the relationship between distance to the polling station and voter turnout in the Czech general election of 2017. Using insights from rational choice theory and the funnel model of turnout, multilevel logit models are used to examine whether the relationship between reported turnout and distance from home to the polling station was different for those who are obese and/or think they are in poor health. This study is based on analyses of the Czech Household Panel Survey data. The modelling results confirm that those who were obese and in poor health had a lower probability of voting as the distance to the polling station increased. Furthermore, this study found that being interested in the 2017 election outcome (instrumental motivation) did mitigate physiological limitations associated with getting to a polling station; however, thinking that voting is a civic duty (moral motivation) had no strong effect on the distance to the polls and turnout relationship.

Optimal Majority Rule in Referenda

Adopting the group turnout model of Herrera and Mattozzi, J. Eur. Econ. Assoc. 2010, 8, 838–871, we investigate direct democracy with supermajority rule and different preference intensities for two sides of a referendum: Reform versus status quo. Two parties spend money and effort to mobilize their voters. We characterize the set of pure strategy Nash equilibria. We investigate the optimal majority rule that maximizes voters’ welfare. Using an example, we show that the relationship between the optimal majority rule and the preference intensity is not monotonic—the optimal majority rule is initially decreasing and then increasing in the preference intensity of the status quo side. We also show that when the preference intensity of the status quo side is higher, the easiness to mobilize voters on the status quo side is lower, or the payoff that the reform party receives is higher, the optimal majority rule is more likely to be supermajority.

Dynamic performance analysis of heavy-haul locomotives running through turnout branches with electric brake

This paper develops a dynamic model of heavy-haul train to investigate the dynamic behaviour of heavy-haul locomotives passing through turnout branch lines with electric brakes. A heavy-haul train dynamic model including 2 HX-type locomotives and 4 sets of coupler and buffer systems has been built up by SIMPACK software. The developed coupler-tail arc surface contact friction element, improved nonlinear hysteretic buffer element and flattened pin rotation stop element are all taken into consideration in the coupler and buffer subsystem. The turnout branch line is simplified as an S-shape curve without considering the profile change of turnout switch and frog rails. This dynamic model is validated by comparing its calculation results with those of the real turnout model and test data respectively. On this basis, the simulations of heavy-haul locomotives passing through Chinese 12# turnout branch lines with electric brakes have been carried out, and the influences of electric brake forces, locomotive and coupler structural parameters have been investigated deeply. Results indicate that both the locomotive electric brake force and the coupler-tail friction coefficient have significant influences, and the locomotive secondary lateral stop also has a great effect. Controlling the locomotive electric brake force and optimising these locomotive and coupler structural parameters could improve the dynamic performance of heavy-haul locomotives passing through turnout branches with electric brakes.

Bias in Self-reported Voting and How it Distorts Turnout Models: Disentangling Nonresponse Bias and Overreporting Among Danish Voters

Most nonexperimental studies of voter turnout rely on survey data. However, surveys overestimate turnout because of (1) nonresponse bias and (2) overreporting. We investigate this possibility using a rich dataset of Danish voters, which includes validated turnout indicators from administrative data for both respondents and nonrespondents, as well as respondents’ self-reported voting from the Danish National Election Studies. We show that both nonresponse bias and overreporting contribute significantly to overestimations of turnout. Further, we use covariates from the administrative data available for both respondents and nonrespondents to demonstrate that both factors also significantly bias the predictors of turnout. In our case, we find that nonresponse bias and overreporting masks a gender gap of two and a half percentage points in women’s favor as well as a gap of 25 percentage points in ethnic Danes’ favor compared with Danes of immigrant heritage.

Intersectionality, Depression, and Voter Turnout

AbstractContext: This article untangles the effects of depression on voter turnout among blacks and whites and among women and men and considers several factors—income, health insurance, church attendance, group consciousness, and empowerment—that may mitigate the negative effects of depression on turnout.Methods: The authors estimated regression models of voter turnout on depression across race and gender groups using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health. They used interaction terms to assess whether the effect of depression is conditional on the potential mitigating factors.Findings: Reporting increased depressive symptoms was associated with a lower probability of voting across electoral contexts for all respondents, and few factors mitigated this negative effect. Only in the case of black men did the authors find that a coethnic candidate mitigated the negative effect of depression, while a higher level of group consciousness did the opposite.Conclusions: The effect of depression was strong, cut across racial and gender groups, and was generally robust to the effects of income, health insurance, church attendance, group consciousness, and empowerment. More research is required to understand how to reduce depression and improve turnout among those who experience it.

Following Through on an Intention to Vote: Present Bias and Turnout

AbstractMany citizens express an intention to vote but then fail to follow through on their motivation. It is well known that impulsiveness contributes to unsound behaviors with adverse individual consequences like smoking, overeating, and undersaving. I apply these findings and theory to political participation and argue that present bias is also likely to limit collective behaviors. Those who desire to act are challenged by impulsiveness in following through on their motivation. In a nationally representative survey merged to administrative records, those with present bias are around ten points less likely to vote. Importantly, those with present bias are less likely to vote even after expressing pre-election intention to do so. Along with a formal decision-theoretic model of turnout with present bias, the results provide a new framework to reason about the choice to vote, an alternative interpretation of the over-report of turnout, and have implications for policy approaches to promote individual action in the public interest.

Design Optimization and Experimental Verification of an Electromagnetic Turnout for HTS Maglev Systems

The turnout is a crucial track junction device of the ground rail transportation system, including high-temperature superconducting (HTS) Maglev systems. The permanent magnetic guideway (PMG) employed in the HTS maglev system has a strong magnetic force between the rail segments, which causes moving difficulties and increases operation costs when switching the PMG. In this paper, a type of nonmechanical electromagnetic turnout for a “Y”-shaped Halbach-type PMG is proposed, and the structure of the electromagnet is optimized by finite element software. Simulation results show that the magnetic field of the optimized electromagnet could reach as strong as the replaced permanent magnets (PM), so it is feasible to design and fabricate a nonmechanical electromagnetic turnout. We fabricated a toy-sized “Y”-shaped electromagnetic turnout model and its counterpart with only PM to analyze and compare the magnetic field distribution. A maglev vehicle model with one HTS bulk inside is levitated and used to check the function of the designed turnout. Experiments show that the maglev model could achieve a stable direction switch above the electromagnetic turnout by changing the input current direction of the electromagnet. This work verifies the feasibility of electromagnetic turnouts for the Halbach-type PMG and provides valuable references for the future design of nonmechanical PMG turnouts.