Total Electron Content Model Research Articles

Empirical orthogonal function based modelling of ionosphere using Turkish GNSS network

The study investigates ionospheric total electron content (TEC) variation over Turkey from the five selected global navigation satellite system (GNSS) stations situated in diverse parts of Turkey. The geomagnetic indices are used and observed TEC are modeled with the technique known as Empirical orthogonal function (EOF). It is valuable to note that the correlation coefficient between observed GNSS TEC values and EOF TEC values varies from 0.8020 to 0.9394. The root means square error (RMSE) values between observed GNSS TEC values and EOF TEC lie between 3.1665 TECU to 4.4220 TECU. These results show that the EOF model performs quite well in the Turkish region and can present the model TEC variations perfectly. Finally, these GNSS observed and EOF-predicted TEC values along with geomagnetic indices are studied with the tropospheric wind speed. The results showed that both observed and modeled TEC have very low correlations with tropospheric wind speed and do not provide any significant value. Hence, we concluded that the ionospheric region is not affected by tropospheric wind speed. It happens because the tropospheric wind speed is a matter of the lower troposphere and its atmospheric pressure while the ionosphere is far from the earth and depends upon the number of free electrons.

Forecasting 24‐Hr Total Electron Content With Long Short‐Term Memory Neural Network

AbstractAn accurate prediction of the ionospheric state is important for correcting ionospheric propagation effects on Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) signals used in precise navigation and positioning applications. The main objective of the present work is to find a total electron content (TEC) model which gives a good estimate of ionospheric state not only during quiet but also during perturbed ionospheric conditions. For this, we implemented several long short‐term memory (LSTM)‐based models capable of predicting TEC up to 24 hr ahead. For the first time, we used the solar wind forcing parameters Wprot (a measure of the ionospheric disturbance during storm time) and Econv (measure of the solar wind parameters) as driver parameters. We found that using external drivers does not improve the accuracy of TEC predictions significantly. The final model is trained with data from the last two solar cycles using TEC from the rapid UQRG global ionosphere maps (GIMs). Data from the years 2015 and 2020 were excluded from the training data set and used for testing. The performance of the LSTM‐based TEC model is tested for near real‐time (RT) cases as well by using RT products (IRTG GIMs) as historical TEC inputs. We compared the performance of the LSTM‐based model to a quiet‐time feed forward neural network (FNN)‐based model and the Neustrelitz TEC model (NTCM). The results indicate that the LSTM‐based model proposed here is outperforming the FNN‐based model and NTCM in both cases, that is, using the UQRG or the IRTG GIMs as input for the historical TEC.

Analyzing the spatial variation characteristics of grid TEC using long-term GIM data

Global ionosphere maps (GIM), a grid model generated based on observations from global GNSS stations, is often used for ionospheric delay correction and total electron content (TEC) analysis, and is an important data for ionospheric modeling and code bias estimation, as well as related applications. Understanding the spatial variation characteristics of the grid TEC in GIM data can help the better use of GIM data. In this paper, the GIM data of CODE (Center for Orbit Determination in Europe) analysis center for a total of 15 years from 2008 to 2022 are used to analyze the variation of TEC of adjacent grid points and the difference of TEC of four grid points in each grid. The results show that the mean values of the grid TEC variations range from about 0.26–1.86 TECu in the longitude direction and 0.36–2.76 TECu in the latitude direction, and most of the differences in the TECs of neighboring grid points are within ± 2 TECu. In the low solar activity years, the STD of the TEC of the four grid points in most of the grids in the GIM data is less than 1.2 TECu, indicating that the TEC values of the four grid points in most of the grids in their GIMs are relatively close to each other and the differences are small, whereas the differences are larger in the high solar activity years. In other words, the TEC values of the areas covered by the GIM grids in the low solar activity years are close. The results of the study can provide some references and lessons for the interpolation and application of the TEC of the GIM grid, and the TEC modeling of the single-station area.

Exploring ionospheric dynamics: a comprehensive analysis of GNSS TEC estimations during the solar phases using linear function model

Abstract The modeling and forecasting of Total Electron Content (TEC) play a major role in influencing signals from satellite-based navigation systems and impact the performance of diverse satellite-dependent technologies. The intensity of solar ionizing radiation and the state of geomagnetic field activity influence the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)-TEC. This paper uses a Linear TEC Function (LTF) climatology model to understand ionospheric behavior under solar and geomagnetic activities that cause variations in the electron distribution of the ionosphere medium. The LTF model integrates representations of solar EUV photon (MgII) and geomagnetic (SYMH) activities, incorporating solar-modulated oscillations (periodic variations) at four seasonal cycles and a linear trend. The LTF model examined the time series of GPS-TEC at a location (geographic 34.95° N, 134.05° E) with a time resolution of 1 h, from 1997 to 2016, covering solar cycles 23 and 24. The Root Mean Square Deviation (RMSD) and correlation coefficient between the GNSS-TEC and model TEC (LTF) was 5.30 TECU and 95 %. The results indicate that solar components, as well as annual and semi-annual variations, have a significant impact on the daily average TEC. Solar activity appears to be the predominant determining factor of TEC during the solar phases of cycles 23 and 24. In contrast, periodic influences primarily outline TEC during periods characterized by minimal solar activity. The geomagnetic component presents an increased influence, particularly during storm periods. The model demonstrates superior performance in Total TEC modeling compared to other state-of-the-art approaches.

Improved Ionospheric Total Electron Content Maps over China Using Spatial Gridding Approach

Improved Ionospheric Total Electron Content Maps over China Using Spatial Gridding Approach

Prediction of ionospheric total electron content data using NARX neural network model

Successful prediction of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) data will help in correction of positioning errors in global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) caused by the ionosphere. This research paper proposes a prediction model for ionospheric TEC using a nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX) neural network that utilizes past TEC data alongwith solar and geomagnetic indices namely F10.7, disturbed storm (Dst), Kp, Ap, and time of the day. We assess the prediction capability of our model at different latitudes during different solar activity years. We compare our results with another NARX model which uses previous TEC data along with time of the day, day of the year and season as exogenous parameters. The results show that for the solar minimum year the TEC prediction accuracy improves by 35.71% and for the solar maximum year it improves by 31.20%. The results using root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), correlation coefficient, and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE) clearly indicate that solar and geomagnetic indices along with time of the day help in enhancing prediction accuracy of TEC across different latitudinal regions during both solar minimum and maximum years.

An Empirical Model of Ionospheric Total Electron Content Based on Tide‐Like Signature Modeling

AbstractAccurate modeling of the total electron content (TEC) benefits scientific research and practical application. In this study, the global ionospheric maps from the Center for Orbit Determination of Europe (CODE) covering the years 2000–2021 are utilized to develop an empirical model of TEC by superposing the tide‐like components in the ionosphere. The tide‐like components, including the migrating and non‐migrating ones, are first derived from the daily CODE TEC data. Then, the sine and cosine components of a tide‐like signature are separately decomposed into the basic modes as a function of the modified inclination latitude with the principle component analysis, and the temporal evolution is regressed to the solar radiation dependence and interannual variation. As such, the climatological behavior of tidal amplitudes and phases could be well parameterized, and the developed model is capable of reproducing the global TEC patterns. The modeled TEC agrees well with the CODE input data with zero systematic error and a low root mean square error of 3.849 TECu, demonstrating a good model performance. This developed model, associated with the parametric tide‐like signatures, could serve as a background for future investigations of the ionospheric responses to the forcing from below or above.

A Multi-Parameter Empirical Fusion Model for Ionospheric TEC in China’s Region

This article takes the measured Total Electron Content (TEC) from the GPS points of the China Regional Crust Observation Network as the starting point to establish a regional ionospheric empirical model. The model’s performance is enhanced by considering solar flux and geomagnetic activity data. The refinement function model of the ionospheric TEC diurnal variation component, seasonal variation component, and geomagnetic component is studied. Using the nonlinear least squares method to fit undetermined coefficients, MEFM-ITCR (Multi-parameter Empirical Fusion Model–Ionospheric TEC China Regional Model) is proposed to forecast the regional ionosphere TEC in China. The results show that the standard deviation of MEFM-ITCR residuals is 3.74TECU, and MEFM-ITCR fits the modeling dataset well. Analyses of geographic location variation, seasonal variation, and geomagnetic disturbance were carried out for MEFM-ITCR performance. The results indicate that in the Chinese region, MEFM-ITCR outperforms IRI2020 and NeQuick2 models in terms of forecast accuracy, linear correlation, and model precision for TEC measured using GPS points under different latitudes and longitudes, different seasons, and different geomagnetic disturbances. The empirical TEC model built for the Chinese region in this paper provides a new ionospheric delay correction method for GNSS single frequency users and is of great significance for establishing other new and improving existing ionospheric empirical models.

Constructing a Regional Ionospheric TEC Model in China with Empirical Orthogonal Function and Dense GNSS Observation

Using Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) observation data for developing a high-precision ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) model is one of the essential subjects in ionospheric physics research and the application of satellite navigation correction. In this study, we integrate the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) method with the TEC data provided by the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE), and observed by the dense GNSS receivers operated by the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC) to construct a regional ionospheric TEC model over China. The EOF analysis of CODE TEC in China from 1998 to 2010 shows that the first-order EOF component accounts for 90.3813% of the total variation of the ionospheric TEC in China. Meanwhile, the average value of CODE TEC is consistent with the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the first-order EOF base function, which mainly reflects the latitude and diurnal variations of TEC in China. The first-order coefficient after EOF decomposition shows an obvious 11-year period and semi-annual variations. The maximum amplitude of semi-annual variation mainly appears in March and October, which is closely associated with the variation in geographical longitude, the semi-annual change of the low-latitude electric field, and the ionospheric fountain effect. The second-order coefficient has an evident annual variation, the minimum amplitude mainly occurs in March, August, and September, and the amplitude values in the high solar activity years are more significant than those in the low solar activity years. The third-order coefficient mainly shows the characteristics of annual variation, and the fourth-order coefficient shows the noticeable semi-annual and annual variations. The third and fourth-order coefficients are both modulated by the solar activity index F10.7. The ionospheric TEC model in China, driven by CMONOC real-time GNSS observation data, can better reflect the latitude, local time and seasonal variation characteristics of ionospheric TEC over China. In particular, it can clearly show the spring and autumn asymmetry of ionospheric TEC in the low latitudes. The root mean square error of the absolute error between the model and the actual observation is mainly distributed around 2.45 TECU (1 TECU = 1016 electrons/m2). The values of the TEC model constructed in this study are closer to the actual observed values than those of the CODE TEC in China.

Ionospheric TEC modeling using COSMIC-2 GNSS radio occultation and artificial neural networks over Egypt

Abstract The ionospheric delay significantly impacts GNSS positioning accuracy. To address this, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was developed using the high-quality COSMIC-2 ionospheric profile dataset to predict the Total Electron Content (TEC). ANNs are adept at addressing both linear and nonlinear challenges. For this research, eight distinct ANNs were cultivated. These ANNs were designed with the following inputs Year, Month, Day, Hour, Latitude, and Longitude. Along with solar and geomagnetic parameters such as the F10.7 solar radio flux index, the Sunspot Number (SSN), the Kp index, and the ap index. The goal was to discern the most influential parameters on ionosphere prediction. After pinpointing these key parameters, an enhanced model utilizing a pioneering technique of a secondary ANN was employed with the main ANN to predict TEC values for events in 2023. The study’s findings indicate that solar parameters markedly enhance the model’s accuracy. Notably, the augmented model featuring a prelude secondary network achieved a stellar correlation coefficient of 0.99. Distributionally, 41 % of predictions aligned within the (−1≤ ΔTEC ≤1) TECU spectrum, 28 % nestled within the (1< ΔTEC ≤2) and (−2≤ ΔTEC <−1) TECU ambit, while a substantial 30 % spanned the broader (2< ΔTEC ≤5) and (−5≤ ΔTEC <−2) TECU range. In essence, this research underscores the potential of incorporating solar parameters and advanced neural network techniques to refine ionospheric delay predictions, thus boosting GNSS positioning precision.

Response of the ionosphere to equatorial electrojet at latitudes near the northern EIA crest in the East African longitudinal sector

Equatorial Electrojet (EEJ) and Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) are two distinct ionospheric phenomena which are caused by the horizontal configuration of the geomagnetic field at the equator. On the day side of the earth, these activities are controlled by a common zonal electric field, and their interactions must be researched for a number of scientific reasons. In this study, we used multiple Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations at Al Wajh, Sola village, Nama, and Sheba in 2012 to investigate the correlations between the instantaneous and integrated equatorial electrojet (EEJ) and the variations of vertical total electron content (vTEC) at the northern crest of EIA in the East Africa and Middle East longitudinal sector. The equinoctial and solstitial months have the highest and lowest values of the monthly mean EEJ and vTEC, respectively, and as a result, both parameters show a semi-annual variability. The monthly mean vTEC also demonstrates equinoctial and solstitial asymmetries, resulting in vTEC values that are higher at the September equinox and the December solstice than at the March equinox and the June solstice, respectively. These asymmetries have been also observed in the composition of [O]/[N2] ratio. On days with strong counter electrojet (CEJ), EEJ peaks are smaller and occur later than on days with weak CEJ. Additionally, when CEJ is high, EIA is suppressed and vTEC exhibits low values at all crest points. In the early hours (10:00–12:00 Lt), Nama and Sheb showed higher correlation coefficient values with significant levels than Alwj and Sola. According to the correlation analysis, the anomaly crest develops at the lower latitude stations between 10:00 and 12:00 Lt and then moves to the higher latitude stations later. Generally, the correlations are higher and more significant in the equinoxes than the solstices. The correlations between integrated EEJ (IEEJ) and vTEC were also found to be strong and significant at the lower latitude stations throughout all seasons. These findings suggest that both the instantaneous and integrated EEJ can be used as a proxy for the eastward zonal equatorial electric field and must be considered in regional and global models of total electron content of equatorial and low latitude ionosphere.

Efficient and accurate TEC modeling and prediction approach with random forest and Bi-LSTM for large-scale region

The total electron content (TEC) is a crucial parameter for ionosphere monitoring, and the development of accurate TEC estimation and prediction models is significant for high-precision positioning. However, establishing a high-precision ionospheric model that can effectively improve prediction accuracy remains a challenging task. We propose a method that combines random forest with a Bi-LSTM neural network to establish a high-precision ionospheric prediction model. The random forest algorithm is used for regression analysis and to estimate the variable importance of input parameters. We use observation data from the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China and International GNSS Services while estimating the relative importance of 14 input variables at different latitudes. The results demonstrate that our proposed model achieves more efficient and accurate predictions, with a correlation coefficient of 0.96, indicating significant improvement in accuracy compared to traditional RNN and LSTM models. Overall, the Bi-LSTM forecast model based on random forest can effectively capture the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of ionospheric TEC in China. This enables the model to provide accurate ionospheric information for positioning users, thereby improving the precision of positioning applications.

Regional ionospheric TEC modeling during geomagnetic storm in August 2021- data fusion using multi-instrument observations

Regional ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) models are most significant to investigate the variability of ionosphere during all-weather conditions. Since the ground-based TEC measurements are not available in oceanic and polar regions, space-based observations are incorporated to increase the positional accuracy and reliability of Global Ionospheric TEC Maps (GIMs). Therefore, data fusion techniques are necessary to enhance the prediction capability of regional ionospheric models by considering multi-source data. In view of this, an attempt is made to investigate Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) structures in low-latitudinal Indian region using multi-instrument data. Data observations from background model CODEGIM, available International GNSS Service (IGS) stations in India, GNSS receivers at KLEF and Tripura stations, FORMOSAT/COSMIC radio occultation and SWARM during geomagnetic storm period August 26–28, 2021 are used for the study. Spherical Harmonics Function (SHF) of order 4 is employed along with Weighted Least Squares analysis (WLS), where separate weight constraint is computed for each data source. TEC maps of spatial resolution 5° x 5° and temporal resolution of 1 h are generated to illustrate the dynamic behavior of ionosphere. The standard deviation for 3 days is obtained as 0.42, 0.61 and 1.43 TECU respectively. TEC depletions and enhancements are observed on August 27 and 28, with mean values of 12.74 and 15.27 TECU respectively, demonstrating negative and positive storm effects.

An improved Kloubuchar ionospheric correction model for single frequency GNSS receivers

Abstract The enhancement of positional accuracy of single frequency ionospheric correction models is an urgent need for low-cost and smartphone GNSS users. The available single frequency ionospheric correction models such as Klobuchar, NeQuick-G, NTCM, and Klob-BDS are providing ionospheric corrections for multi GNSS systems such as GPS, Galileo, BDS, and NAVIC systems. Otherwise, Global Ionospheric Map (GIM) Total Electron Content (TEC) corrections are also available to the GNSS users. In this letter, an improved Klobuchar ionospheric model is implemented. The slant TEC of dual Frequency GPS TEC observations is considered a reference. The Klobuchar model slant TEC observations are improved by taking the grid-based residual TEC corrections with the Adjusted Spherical Harmonic Function model. The Single frequency users can improve the ionospheric delay estimation using Klobuchar model and grid-based TEC residual corrections. The improved ionospheric correction model is tested under the biggest geomagnetic storm conditions during 24th Solar cycle that occurred in March 2015 over India. The proposed hybrid slant ionospheric TEC algorithms are evaluated with individual single frequency ionospheric models (Klobuchar, and GPS TEC) under adverse space weather conditions.

Improvement of international reference ionospheric model total electron content maps: a case study using artificial neural network in Egypt

Abstract An essential ionosphere parameter that can be applied for ionosphere corrections in radio systems is the ionosphere’s total electron content (TEC). TEC is a crucial parameter for ionospheric correction in the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) of positioning, navigation, and radio science. This study uses the artificial neural network (ANN) application to improve the International Reference Ionospheric Model (IRI-2016) TEC maps across Egypt. The study period is based on the data that were accessible between 2013 and 2020. The ANN model input parameters are (year, day, hour, latitude, and longitude). The ANN1 and ANN2 estimate TEC values of the enhanced IRI-2020 and IRI-2016 according to the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE), respectively. ANN3 and ANN4 estimate TEC values of the enhanced IRI-2020 and IRI-2016 regarding IGS stations data analyzed by GNSS Analysis software for the multi-constellation and multi-frequency Precise Positioning (GAMP) model, respectively. The ANN model’s validations were based on the root mean square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (CC), and T-test. According to the results, the suggested ANN can accurately predict the TEC over Egypt. In comparison to the IRI model, the TEC maps that the ANN models produced are significantly more in accordance with the related CODE and GAMP TEC maps. These results demonstrate that the developed approach can enhance IRI 2016 and IRI-2020s ability to estimate global TEC maps. For the ANN1 model, the mean CC and RMSE are 0.92, and 5.15 TECU for all the global data sets compared by CODE. On the other hand, the CC and RMSE between IRI-2020 and CODE are 0.847 and 7.67 TECU. For the ANN2, the mean CC and RMSE are 0.87, 5.59 TECU compared by CODE, respectively. Although the CC and RMSE between IRI-2016 and CODE are 0.820 and 9.052 TECU respectively. For the ANN3, the CC and RMSE are 0.830 and 4.87 TECU compared with GAMP for all global data, respectively. On the other hand, the CC and RMSE between IRI-2020 and GAMP are 0.644 and 10.41, respectively. For the ANN4 the CC and RMSE are 0.82, and 5.95 TECU compared with GAMP, respectively. Although the CC and RMSE between IRI-2016 and GAMP are 0.665 and 12.347 TECU respectively.

Neustrelitz Total Electron Content Model for Galileo Performance: A Position Domain Analysis

Ionospheric error is one of the largest errors affecting global navigation satellite system (GNSS) users in open-sky conditions. This error can be mitigated using different approaches including dual-frequency measurements and corrections from augmentation systems. Although the adoption of multi-frequency devices has increased in recent years, most GNSS devices are still single-frequency standalone receivers. For these devices, the most used approach to correct ionospheric delays is to rely on a model. Recently, the empirical model Neustrelitz Total Electron Content Model for Galileo (NTCM-G) has been proposed as an alternative to Klobuchar and NeQuick-G (currently adopted by GPS and Galileo, respectively). While the latter outperforms the Klobuchar model, it requires a significantly higher computational load, which can limit its exploitation in some market segments. NTCM-G has a performance close to that of NeQuick-G and it shares with Klobuchar the limited computation load; the adoption of this model is emerging as a trade-off between performance and complexity. The performance of the three algorithms is assessed in the position domain using data for different geomagnetic locations and different solar activities and their execution time is also analysed. From the test results, it has emerged that in low- and medium-solar-activity conditions, NTCM-G provides slightly better performance, while NeQuick-G has better performance with intense solar activity. The NTCM-G computational load is significantly lower with respect to that of NeQuick-G and is comparable with that of Klobuchar.

An Ionospheric Total Electron Content Model with a Storm Option over Japan Based on a Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network

Ionospheric delay has a severe effect on reducing the accuracy of positioning and navigation of single-frequency receivers. Therefore, it is necessary to construct a precise regional ionospheric model for real-time Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) applications. The total electron contents (TECs) of 839 GNSS stations affiliated with the GPS Earth Observation Network were used to build a Japanese ionospheric model (JIM) based on a multi-layer perceptron neural network. During quiet space conditions, the correlation coefficient between the targets and the predictions of the JIM was about 0.98, and the root-mean square error (RMSE) of TEC residuals was ~1.5TECU, while under severe space events, the correlation coefficient increased to 0.99, and the corresponding RMSE dropped to 0.96 TECU. Moreover, the JIM model successfully reconstructed the two-dimensional (time vs latitude) TEC maps, and the TEC maps had evident hourly and seasonal variations. Most of TEC residuals accumulated between universal time 01–06 with an averaged magnitude of 1-2TECU. Furthermore, the JIM model had a perfect prediction performance under various kinds of complex space environments. In the quiet days, the prediction accuracy of the JIM was nearly equal to the global ionosphere map (GIM), and in some moments, the JIM was more competitive than the GIM. In the disturbed days, the RMSEs of TEC residuals were proportional to the solar wind speed and were inversely proportional to the geomagnetic Dst value. The maximum RMSE of the JIM was lower than 2TECU, while the corresponding RMSEs for the IRI and TIE-GCM exceeded 5TECU.

Near real-time global ionospheric total electron content modeling and nowcasting based on GNSS observations

For the purposes of routinely providing reliable and low-latency Global Ionosphere Maps (GIMs), a method of estimating hourly updated near real-time GIM with a time latency of about 1–2 h based on a 24-h data sliding window of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) near real-time observations and real-time data streams was presented. On the basis of the implementation of near real-time GIM estimation, an hourly updated GIM nowcasting method was further proposed to improve the accurate of short-term total electron content (TEC) prediction. We estimated the Shanghai Astronomical Observatory near real-time GIM (SHUG) and nowcasting GIM (SHPG) in the solar relatively active year (2014) and quiet year (2021), and employed GIMs provided by the International GNSS Service, the Global Positioning System (GPS) differential slant TECs (dSTECs) extracted from global independent GNSS stations, and the vertical TECs (VTECs) inverted from satellite altimetry as the references to validate the estimated results. The GPS dSTECs evaluation results show that SHUG behaves fairly consistent with the rapid GIMs, with a discrepancy of less than 1 TEC unit (TECu) overall. The standard deviations (STDs) of SHUG with respect to Jason-2/-3 VTECs are no more than 10% over the majority of rapid GIMs due to the instability of observations. The performance of 1-h nowcasting SHPG is significantlybetter than the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) 1-day predicted GIM (C1PG). GPS dSTEC validation results indicate that 1-h nowcasting SHPG is 1 to 2 TECu more reliable than C1PG in eventful ionospheric electron activity regions, and it outperforms the C1PG by 10% overall versus Jason-2/-3 VTECs. The hourly updated SHUG and SHPG have relatively high reliability and low time latency, and thus can provide excellent service for (near) real-time users and offer more accurate TEC background information than daily predicted GIM for real-time GIM estimation.

Observed (GPS) and modeled (IRI and TIE-GCM) TEC trends over southern low latitude during solar cycle-24

The Total Electron Content (TEC) derived from the Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements during the solar cycle-24 at COCO Island (12.20⁰ S, 96.80⁰ E) are compared with those of International Reference Ionosphere-2016 (IRI-2016) model and Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General CirculationModel (TIE-GCM). TEC data derived from the above two models follow the nature of observed variations with considerable divergences in amplitudes. The precision of model TEC in reference to GPS TEC is discussed using a correlation coefficient, mean difference, root mean square error, and relative deviation module mean techniques. The randomness of predictions is found to be biased by the solar cycle, season, and local time. The simulated values showed better accuracy during the low solar activity and night hours. This study is an extension of Rao et al. (2019b), in which we reported similar study of TEC variability at the northern low latitude station. First of all, it is observed from two studies that the magnitude of TEC is greater at the southern low latitude than at the northern low latitude. Also the correlation between GPS TEC/ IRI TEC and F10.7 flux is determined to be greater at northern low latitude station compared to southern low latitude station. However, TIE-GCM TEC values are found to be slightly more correlated with F10.7 flux at southern low latitude station compared to northern low latitude station. With regard to seasonal variation, semiannual oscillations in TEC are found to be coherent on both sides of the equator. However, the winter anomaly is not observed or predicted by models at the southern low latitude whereas it is observed to be a solar flux-dependent feature at the northern low latitude. The IRI model closely follows seasonal trends of TEC whereas TIE-GCM over-predicted TEC during solstices at the northern low latitudes. Models TEC deviations are found to be lesser at the southern low latitude compared to northern low latitude.

Storm-Time Relative Total Electron Content Modelling Using Machine Learning Techniques

Accurately predicting total electron content (TEC) during geomagnetic storms is still a challenging task for ionospheric models. In this work, a neural-network (NN)-based model is proposed which predicts relative TEC with respect to the preceding 27-day median TEC, during storm time for the European region (with longitudes 30°W–50°E and latitudes 32.5°N–70°N). The 27-day median TEC (referred to as median TEC), latitude, longitude, universal time, storm time, solar radio flux index F10.7, global storm index SYM-H and geomagnetic activity index Hp30 are used as inputs and the output of the network is the relative TEC. The relative TEC can be converted to the actual TEC knowing the median TEC. The median TEC is calculated at each grid point over the European region considering data from the last 27 days before the storm using global ionosphere maps (GIMs) from international GNSS service (IGS) sources. A storm event is defined when the storm time disturbance index Dst drops below 50 nanotesla. The model was trained with storm-time relative TEC data from the time period of 1998 until 2019 (2015 is excluded) and contains 365 storms. Unseen storm data from 33 storm events during 2015 and 2020 were used to test the model. The UQRG GIMs were used because of their high temporal resolution (15 min) compared to other products from different analysis centers. The NN-based model predictions show the seasonal behavior of the storms including positive and negative storm phases during winter and summer, respectively, and show a mixture of both phases during equinoxes. The model’s performance was also compared with the Neustrelitz TEC model (NTCM) and the NN-based quiet-time TEC model, both developed at the German Aerospace Agency (DLR). The storm model has a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 3.38 TEC units (TECU), which is an improvement by 1.87 TECU compared to the NTCM, where an RMSE of 5.25 TECU was found. This improvement corresponds to a performance increase by 35.6%. The storm-time model outperforms the quiet-time model by 1.34 TECU, which corresponds to a performance increase by 28.4% from 4.72 to 3.38 TECU. The quiet-time model was trained with Carrington averaged TEC and, therefore, is ideal to be used as an input instead of the GIM derived 27-day median. We found an improvement by 0.8 TECU which corresponds to a performance increase by 17% from 4.72 to 3.92 TECU for the storm-time model using the quiet-time-model predicted TEC as an input compared to solely using the quiet-time model.