Spillover Model Research Articles

An Agent-Based Simulation Model of Knowledge Spillover Under the Influence of High-Speed Railway

Abstract The calculation for the influence of high-speed railway on knowledge spillover is based on the results of global instantaneous equilibrium in the mechanism explanation of knowledge spillover. In real production, the interaction between the high-speed railway and the regional innovation system is dynamic and local. In order to simulate the impact of high-speed railway on innovation activities in the time dimension, it is necessary to simulate scenarios under appropriate parameter assumptions. Based on the interaction of economic participants, a discrete evolutionary simulation model is established, which is helpful to predict and estimate the evolution of spatial effect of high-speed railway according to the theory of cellular automata. It is concluded that high-speed railway accelerates the formation of knowledge innovation industry cluster in the region in the process of regional knowledge innovation and evolution. Under the influence of high-speed railway, the node city will gradually evolve into a regional innovation center. By comparing the production evolution of knowledge innovation system with and without high-speed railway, the results show that high-speed railway has a more significant impact on knowledge spillover in higher knowledge privatization environment. Under the background of low labor migration rate, high-speed railway has increased the potential of regional innovation to external knowledge spillover. In the case of higher labor migration rate, the convergence rate of influence of high-speed railway on the concentration of innovation is faster.

Glutamate spillover in C. elegans triggers repetitive behavior through presynaptic activation of MGL-2/mGluR5

Glutamate is a major excitatory neurotransmitter, and impaired glutamate clearance following synaptic release promotes spillover, inducing extra-synaptic signaling. The effects of glutamate spillover on animal behavior and its neural correlates are poorly understood. We developed a glutamate spillover model in Caenorhabditis elegans by inactivating the conserved glial glutamate transporter GLT-1. GLT-1 loss drives aberrant repetitive locomotory reversal behavior through uncontrolled oscillatory release of glutamate onto AVA, a major interneuron governing reversals. Repetitive glutamate release and reversal behavior require the glutamate receptor MGL-2/mGluR5, expressed in RIM and other interneurons presynaptic to AVA. mgl-2 loss blocks oscillations and repetitive behavior; while RIM activation is sufficient to induce repetitive reversals in glt-1 mutants. Repetitive AVA firing and reversals require EGL-30/Gαq, an mGluR5 effector. Our studies reveal that cyclic autocrine presynaptic activation drives repetitive reversals following glutamate spillover. That mammalian GLT1 and mGluR5 are implicated in pathological motor repetition suggests a common mechanism controlling repetitive behaviors.

Therapeutic for all? Observational assessments of therapy canine stress in an on-campus stress-reduction program

Therapy animals are an important and growing support for students on university campuses; however, the stress experienced by dogs working in such programs has rarely been assessed. We assessed stress for 754 students, 40 handlers, and 40 dog participants in a canine therapy stress-reduction program hosted on a university campus. There was an overall significant decrease in handler and student stress and an increase in canine stress when observations of stress measured at home were compared to end-of-session stress. No change in canine stress was found when start-of-session stress was compared with end-of-session stress. For handlers whose initial self-reported stress was elevated, a correspondingly higher level of canine stress was identified at the end of the session. This finding suggests an emotional contagion or spillover model of stress whereby handlers—not student clients—negatively contribute to the affective experience of working therapy dogs.

Ability-Biased Technical Change and Productivity Bonus in a Nested Production Structure: A Theoretical Model with Endogenous Hicks-Neutral Technology Spillover

This paper develops a model of endogenous trade-mediated productivity spillover in which jointly trade-intensity, capital-intensity of production, and skill-intensity for adoption of technology from an exogenously available stock of world knowledge determine firm’s productivity. The representative firm, in the process of maximising profit (or minimising costs), takes into account the benefits of technological improvements embodied in imported intermediates. Sectors with higher skilled labour intensity will have an advantage in extracting the ‘bonuses’ from spillovers. The framework is useful for exploring technology adoption, considering wage premium, investigating innovative changes in sectors, and analysing productivity differences.

Shocks and Volatility Spillover Between Stock Markets of Developed Countries and GCC Stock Markets

ABSTRACTThe purpose of this paper is to examine the spillover of returns, information and volatility of returns, and conditional variance-covariance between the stock markets of developed countries namely the United States of America, the United Kingdom and China (US, UK and CH) and the stock markets of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Bahrain) using daily returns spanned from 2 March 2003 to 9 December 2010. We consider shocks and volatility spillover model by applying a multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (MGARCH) model using; MGARCH-BEKK to identify the source and magnitude of volatility and shock spillover. We get the correlation between GCC markets is positive, indicating that there is a common factor which is driving the markets towards the same direction. Evidence shows that the own-shocks and volatility in GCC markets are highly significant. Cross-information spillover effects, as another observable trend, are found between Qatar and Oman. Furthermore, the results show that UA is significantly affected by spillover (return, shocks and volatility) from developed markets, while there have been no significant effects seen from Kuwait markets. This study takes a new empirical look in the sense that the models incorporating all the countries under investigation are estimated jointly utilizing multivariate GARCH-BEKK formulation. In addition, this paper should be interesting for academicians as well as practitioners. Including those interested in modelling multivariate volatility for financial market risk management.

Carbon emission spillover and feedback effects in China based on a multiregional input-output model

The interregional emission spillover and feedback effects arising from interregional trade are playing more and more important roles in regional emission growth and interregional carbon transfer. It is necessary to measure these effects at regional and sectoral level considering that carbon emissions are closely related to economic development, especially in a vast developing country like China. Based on the three-region model of spillover and feedback effects proposed by Round, an improved multiregional method was proposed to analyze the emission spillover and feedback effects among the eight regions of China. The intraregional effects were revealed to be larger than the spillover effects, and the spillover effects were larger than the feedback effects on the emissions of each region. The proportions of emission spillover effects caused by other regions in the northwestern region, the southwestern region and the northeastern region ranked the top. Each one of the eastern coastal region, the northern coastal region and the southern coastal region caused a large number of emissions in other regions via spillover effects. Moreover, the closer regions were geographically, the stronger spillover effects showed among them. The emission feedback effects are mainly caused the regions themselves. At the regional sectoral level, the production and distribution of electricity and heavy industry released large amounts of emissions caused by spillover and feedback effects. The three coastal regions caused more than half of emission spillover effects in the northwestern region, the central region and the southwestern region in the production and distribution of electricity, heat, gas and water.

Bond market integration of emerging economies and bilateral linkages

AbstractAlthough there are numerous studies that have looked at the spillover effects in equity markets, little attention has been paid to explore the integration of bond markets of developed and emerging economies. Our paper is an attempt to fill this void by quantifying the spillovers from developed countries on the bond markets of 25 emerging economies. We apply volatility and return spillover models to quantify the extent of the spillovers from developed markets (i.e. the United States, UK and Japan) into emerging bond markets. We find that the extent of the return spillovers and volatility spillovers has not been symmetric across emerging markets. We explain these differences using bilateral factors such as trade volume, portfolio investment, cultural and geographical factors. The bilateral trade volume turns out to be the leading explanation for the extent of spillovers between our set of countries.

Volatility Spillovers and Risk Contagion Paths with Capital Flows across Multiple Financial Markets in China

ABSTRACTThis article investigates the issues of volatility spillovers and risk contagion paths with capital flows across the foreign exchange, monetary, credit, and stock markets in a country. We derive the theoretical price linkage of financial markets based on traditional theories of the Gordon model and interest rate parity theory. Then, we set up a volatility spillover model of financial markets and show the cross-market volatility spillover effects by using China’s historical data from January 1996 to December 2016. Regarding the asymmetric spillovers, we determine that they are related to cross-market capital flow routes. After empirical analysis on the unnatural capital flows’ contribution to financial risk contagion, three cross-market risk transmission paths are identified based on the capital flows, which originate from the exchange rate risk, credit risk, and stock volatility risk, respectively.

How do Regulated and Unregulated Labor Markets Respond to Shocks? Evidence from Immigrants During the Great Recession

We study wage adjustment during the recent crisis in Italy using a unique dataset on immigrant workers that includes those employed in formal and informal sector. We find that before the crisis immigrants’ wages in the formal and informal sectors moved in parallel (with a 15% premium in the formal labor market). During the crisis, however, formal wages did not adjust down while wages in the unregulated informal labor market fell so that by 2013 the gap had grown to 32%. The difference was particularly salient for workers in occupations where the minimum wage is likely to be binding, and in “simple” occupations where there is high substitutability between immigrant and native workers. Calibrating a simple partial equilibrium model of spillovers between formal and informal markets, we find that less than 10% of workers who lost a formal job during the crisis move to the informal sector. We also find that if the formal sector wages were fully flexible, the decline in formal employment would be in the range of 1.5–4.5%—much lower than 16% decline that we observe in the data.

Re-/de-traditionalisation of Emphasised Femininity? The Potential Influence of the Spill-over Model on White Female Academics in Leadership Positions

ABSTRACTLeadership has traditionally been associated with men; however, some women have elevated themselves above the socially enforced constrictions caused by gender expectations. These gender expectations specifically pertain to women's roles as mothers and wives and, as such, present particular implications for women to establish a constructive work-life balance in their careers. A general increase in women appointed in leadership positions, particularly in academic contexts, indicates that contemporary women desire a balance between their private and domestic spheres, avoiding a spill-over between the two. The main objective of this qualitative sociological study was to explore how the “spill-over model” influences white female academics in leadership positions at a South African university. The research revealed the challenges associated with establishing a work-life-balance for female academic leaders. It can also be concluded that de-traditionalisation and re-traditionalisation are interrelated factors that influence the way in which female leaders execute their dual responsibilities.

Patterns of Spillover Between Marital Adjustment and Parent-Child Conflict During Pediatric Cancer Treatment.

When a child is diagnosed with cancer, problems may arise in family relationships and negatively affect child adjustment. The current study examined patterns of spillover between marital and parent-child relationships to identify targets for intervention aimed at ameliorating family conflict. Families (N = 117) were recruited from two US children's hospitals within 2-week postdiagnosis to participate in a short-term prospective longitudinal study. Children with cancer were 2-10 years old (M = 5.42 years, SD = 2.59). Primary caregivers provided reports of marital and parent-child conflict at 1-, 6-, and 12-month postdiagnosis. Results indicated that a unidirectional model of spillover from the marital to the parent-child relationship best explained the data. In terms of specific temporal patterns, lower marital adjustment soon after diagnosis was associated with an increase in parent-child conflict 6 months later, though this pattern was not repeated in the latter 6 months of treatment. Targeting problems in marital relationships soon after diagnosis may prevent conflict from developing in the parent-child relationship.

Why do firms collaborate with local universities?

ABSTRACTThis paper examines why firms sometimes collaborate locally rather than with higher-quality universities at a distance. Existing research has mostly relied on the localized knowledge spillover (LKS) model to explain this. This model holds that knowledge transfer across distance is costly, and collaborating locally reduces the risk of information loss when the knowledge is transferred. However, there are various other reasons that could also explain the pattern. If the local university can make a useful contribution, firms might choose to look no further. Firms may also see collaboration as a long-term investment, helping to build research quality at the local university with the hope of benefiting in future. Finally, firms may want to contribute to the local community. We extend the LKS model with these additional motivations and explore their validity using data from 23 semi-structured interviews of firms that collaborate intensively with lower-tier local universities.

Spatial Diffusion of Economic Shocks in Networks

The aggregate economic impact of any developmental project depends on its effects within the chosen administrative region as well as its economic spillovers into other regions. However, little is known about how these spillovers propagate through geographic, ethnic and road networks. In this paper, we analyze both theoretically and empirically the role of these networks in the spatial diffusion of local economic shocks. We develop a network model that shows how a district’s level of prosperity is related to its position in the network. The network model’s first-order conditions are used to derive an econometric model of spatial spillovers that we estimate using a panel of 5,944 districts from 53 African countries over the period 1997-2013. To identify the causal effect of spatial diffusion, we exploit cross-sectional variation in the location of mineral mines and exogenous time variation in world mineral prices. Our results show that road and ethnic connectivity are particularly important factors for diffusing economic spillovers over longer distances. We then use the estimated parameters from the econometric model to calculate the key player centralities, which determine which districts are key in propagating local economic shocks across Africa. We further show how counterfactual exercises based on these estimates and the underlying network structure can inform us about the potential gains from policies that increase economic activity in specific districts or improve road connectivity between districts.

Spatial Diffusion of Economic Shocks in Networks

The aggregate economic impact of any developmental project depends on its effects within the chosen administrative region as well as its economic spillovers into other regions. However, little is known about how these spillovers propagate through geographic, ethnic and road networks. In this paper, we analyze both theoretically and empirically the role of these networks in the spatial diffusion of local economic shocks. We develop a network model that shows how a district’s level of prosperity is related to its position in the network. The network model’s first-order conditions are used to derive an econometric model of spatial spillovers that we estimate using a panel of 5,944 districts from 53 African countries over the period 1997-2013. To identify the causal effect of spatial diffusion, we exploit cross-sectional variation in the location of mineral mines and exogenous time variation in world mineral prices. Our results show that road and ethnic connectivity are particularly important factors for diffusing economic spillovers over longer distances. We then use the estimated parameters from the econometric model to calculate the key player centralities, which determine which districts are key in propagating local economic shocks across Africa. We further show how counterfactual exercises based on these estimates and the underlying network structure can inform us about the potential gains from policies that increase economic activity in specific districts or improve road connectivity between districts.

Promoting Spillover: How Past Behaviors Increase Environmental Intentions by Cueing Self-Perceptions

Behavioral spillover theory has potential for promoting meaningful behavior change. Spillover occurs when engagement in environmental behaviors affects the adoption of other environmental behaviors. By testing a new experimental model of spillover, this article is the first to concurrently investigate three predicted mechanisms of spillover—self-identity, self-efficacy, and contribution ethic—on different types of environmental behavior. The experimental spillover model examined how triggering self-perceptions (i.e., self-identity, self-efficacy, and contribution ethic) may influence the likelihood of spillover to occur from engagement in household behaviors to intentions for other environmental behaviors. Triggering self-identity was associated with increased private- and public-sphere intentions. Contrary to expectations, contribution ethic was not associated with decreased intentions, and instead was associated with increased public-sphere intentions. Self-efficacy did not uniquely influence intentions. These findings demonstrate that everyday behaviors can provide an “entry point” for other behaviors, strengthening self-perceptions and generating positive spillover.

Demand for military spending in NATO, 1968–2015: A spatial panel approach

This paper presents two-step GMM panel estimates of NATO allies' demand for defense spending during 1968–2015, 1991–2015, and 1999–2015. A novel feature of our NATO estimates is the spatial autoregressive (SAR) weighting of alliance spillovers of defense spending based on ally contiguity (augmented by US defense spending) and inverse distance between allies. The spatial models provide defense demand estimates that are amazingly consistent with those of the standard spillover model. In particular, free riding is prevalent in all three sets of estimates for the three sample periods and changing set of allies. In addition, the influences of the controls are generally robust, including the effect of the change in strategic doctrine in 1975 that augmented the importance of conventional weapons and, thus, spatial factors. We also present mutual assured destruction (MAD) era defense demand estimations dating back to 1960 and 1950 to show that spatial-based spillovers only matter in the post-MAD era after 1974.

Productivity spillovers through labor mobility in search equilibrium

This paper proposes an explicit model of spillovers through labor flows in a framework with search frictions. Firms can choose to innovate or to imitate by hiring a worker from a firm that has already innovated. We show that if innovating firms can commit to long-term wage contracts with their workers, productivity spillovers are fully internalized. If firms cannot commit to long-term wage contracts, there is too little innovation and too much imitation in equilibrium. Our model is tractable and allows us to analyze welfare effects of various policies in the limited commitment case. We find that subsidizing innovation and taxing imitation improves welfare. Moreover, allowing innovating firms to charge different forms of fees or rent out workers to imitating firms may also improve welfare. By contrast, non-pecuniary measures that reduce the efficiency of the search process, always reduce welfare.

What drives local government spending in Spain? A dynamic spatial panel approach

ABSTRACTWhat drives local government spending in Spain? A dynamic spatial panel approach. Spatial Economic Analysis. This paper extends traditional spatial spillover models of government spending by including dynamic effects and exogenous interaction effects. Using annual data for a sample of 3032 Spanish municipalities during 2000–12, we estimate a dynamic spatial Durbin panel data model to quantify the relevance of spatial spillovers and diffusion effects over time as well as the impact of a variety of spending determinants. We find that government spending at the local level is mainly explained by economic factors, while demographic factors and political factors appear to be less relevant.

Platform Ecosystems: How Developers Invert the Firm

For a period starting in 2015, Apple, Google, and Microsoft became the most valuable companies in the world. Each was marked by an external developer ecosystem. Anecdotally, at least, developers matter. Using a formal model of code spillovers, we show how a rising number of developers can invert the firm. That is, firms will choose to innovate using open external contracts in preference to closed vertical integration. The locus of value creation moves from inside the firm to outside. Distinct from physical goods, digital goods afford firms the chance to optimize spillovers. Further, firms that pursue high risk innovations with more developers can be more profitable than firms that pursue low risk innovations with fewer developers. More developers give platform firms more chances at success. Our contribution is to show why developers might cause a shift in organizational form and to provide a theory of how platform firms optimize their own intellectual property regimes in order to maximize growth. We use stylized facts from multiple platform firms to illustrate our theory and results.

股指期货该为2015年股灾负责吗—基于方向性波动溢出模型的实证分析

2015年股灾期间，股指期货受到广泛批评。本文使用方向性波动溢出模型，研究了沪深300、中证500、上证50三种股票价格指数分别与IF、IC、IH股指期货之间的动态波动溢出效应。研究发现，股灾期间，IF对中证500、上证50确实有推波助澜的作用，但沪深300依然对IF有净(正向)波动溢出效应；2016年1月股指期货交易新规则推出以后，IF对沪深300、中证500、上证50都有净(正向)波动溢出效应。结论是，2015年股灾的爆发并不完全是由股指期货导致的，至少从净影响来看股指期货并没有加剧沪深300的波动；股指期货交易规则的调整并没有很好地平抑现货市场波动。对沪深300、中证500、上证50与IC，沪深300、中证500、上证50与IH的实证研究也支持这一结论。最后提出了一些完善股票交易规则和股指期货交易规则的政策建议。 During the 2015 stock market crash, stock index futures have been widely criticized. The dynamic volatility spillover effects between CSI 300, CSI 500, SSE 50 and IF, IC, IH index futures are examined respectively by using directional spillover models. The stock index futures should not solely responsible for the crash, which is especially true from the perspective of directional spillover effects between CSI 300 and IF. There are many transaction rule modifications for stock index futures including the introduction and suspension of circuit breakers, but those modifications destabilized the stock markets. Robustness analysis also supports the conclusions. Some policy implications and suggestions are given finally.