Economic Analysis Model Research Articles

Thermodynamic and economic performance comparison between reverse Brayton cycles and cascade refrigeration cycles with eco-friendly refrigerants

In the post-pandemic era, there is still a high demand for ultra-low temperature storage of vaccine, plasma and biological samples, which can be realized by cascade refrigeration cycles or reverse Brayton cycles. As there is still a research gap on the comprehensive evaluations on reverse Brayton systems using air and cascade refrigeration systems using eco-friendly refrigerants, the thermodynamic and economic analysis models are established for the parallel air cycles and cascade cycles in this study. Based on validated models, the comprehensive performance of the novel reverse Brayton-cascade cycle is studied under different cooling temperatures and cooling capacities. The results show that adding an internal heat exchanger in parallel air cycles could increase the COP and exergy efficiency by 27.12 % and 2.3 %, and save > 31.38 % of total annual cost. However, the comprehensive performance of the composite cycle is inferior to that of cascade refrigeration cycle. The novelty of the paper is to further confirm the superiority of cascade refrigeration systems and the differences between reverse Brayton cycles and cascade cycles, which has not been involved in other studies. This work may supply some technique references for the generation of ultra-low temperature zones and the selection of environmental-friendly refrigerants on CRC establishment.

Estimating the cost-effectiveness of maternal respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccination in Australia: A dynamic and economic modelling analysis.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of respiratory illness, with younger infants at greatest risk of hospitalisation. With the recent approval of a maternal RSV vaccine in Australia, it is timely to evaluate its potential costs and health benefits in Australia. We applied an integrated dynamic and economic evaluation model to estimate specific outcomes of RSV disease and the cost-effectiveness of a year-round maternal RSV vaccination program in Australia. Cost-effectiveness was estimated using the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. From a healthcare system perspective, the maternal vaccination program was estimated to be cost-effective at a vaccine price less than approximately 120 Australian dollars ($AU), assuming a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $AU 50,000/QALY gained. Most of the estimated cost-savings were from preventing RSV hospitalisations in infants aged <6months. However, while 82% of the cost-savings were from preventing RSV hospitalisations in infants aged <6months, only about 25% of the QALY gains were in this age group. The majority of the other QALY gains came via herd effects from prevention of death in older adults and to a lesser extent, prevention of nonmedically-attended illness in older teens and adults. When predicted cost-savings and QALY gains in those ≥6months of age were excluded, the vaccine price required to meet the assumed WTP threshold fell to $AU 63. A maternal RSV vaccination program in Australia could provide value for money by reducing hospitalisations and associated costs among infants aged <6months, depending on the vaccine price. We have provided evidence that herd effects beyond the target population may be an important consideration in assessing cost-effectiveness of maternal RSV vaccination.

Energy efficiency and economic performance of a low-temperature heating system combining double-layer pipe-embedded wall and ground source heat pump

Reducing heating energy consumption in buildings is a crucial step towards a low-carbon future. The energy efficiency of heat pump heating systems can be improved by reducing the water supply temperature of terminals. However, existing terminals are limited in using lower-temperature hot water and leaves potential for energy savings. Therefore, this study proposes a double-layer pipe-embedded wall heating system coupled to a ground source heat pump. The outer pipes use shallow geothermal energy to reduce envelope load, whereas the inner pipes use water produced by the heat pump to provide heating. Energy, economic, and carbon emission analysis models of the proposed system are developed. A residential heating case study is conducted in Harbin, Shenyang, Beijing, Zhengzhou, and Shanghai to investigate the performance of the proposed system. The results show that the proposed system achieves much lower-temperature heating than the reference floor heating system. The seasonal energy savings of the proposed system in the selected cities are 12%–18%, with a SCOP of 4.0–5.8. The dynamic payback period of the proposed system is 1.6–4.3 years and the CO2 emission intensity is reduced by 1.2–3.2 kg/m2. This study provides an insight into the application of DPEW heating systems.

Economic effects analysis model of electro-hydrogen coupling system under Energy Internet in China

Economic effects analysis model of electro-hydrogen coupling system under Energy Internet in China

THE ECONOMICS OF UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME

This paper delves into the economic implications and feasibility of Universal Basic Income (UBI), concentrating on the considerable tax burden necessary to fund a UBI system on a national scale. With UBI increasingly seen as a potential solution to modern economic challenges, such as income inequality, poverty, and automation-driven job displacement, this analysis underscores the significant fiscal demands of implementing UBI. Through a comprehensive literature review of global UBI trials and an analysis of economic models and simulations, the paper explores UBI’s impact on labor markets, poverty alleviation, and income redistribution. Notable UBI experiments in Finland, Kenya, and Stockton have demonstrated UBI’s capacity to enhance well-being and provide financial security. However, these trials also reveal critical concerns about labor market participation and, more pressingly, the heavy fiscal burden a UBI system would impose. The fiscal models reviewed in this study indicate that UBI, while promising in enhancing social welfare, would require substantial tax increases to support it. The results emphasize that funding UBI would place a considerable strain on public resources, demanding either heightened income or consumption taxes or innovative but untested funding sources, such as taxes on carbon emissions or automation. Each of these potential funding mechanisms has profound implications for economic equity, efficiency, and social acceptance, and their viability is highly dependent on a nation’s specific economic context and fiscal policy landscape. Furthermore, the study assesses UBI’s potential long-term effects on labor markets, finding that while UBI might support labor market flexibility by reducing economic insecurity, the level of the payment and tax structure could significantly affect employment incentives. This complex interplay of UBI payments and tax policies, which often disproportionately impact certain socioeconomic groups, underlines the need for careful fiscal planning. If structured effectively, UBI could serve as a buffer against the economic disruptions caused by automation, providing displaced workers with the resources to retrain or pursue new career paths in a shifting job market. However, the increased tax burden raises questions about long-term viability, as higher taxes could reduce disposable incomes, deter workforce participation, and, paradoxically, counter the economic dynamism UBI aims to foster. In conclusion, while Universal Basic Income holds transformative potential for reducing poverty and supporting individuals in the face of technological change, its implementation would require an unprecedented commitment of public funds. This paper argues that UBI’s long-term sustainability depends on the development of funding mechanisms that can balance equity with economic efficiency, without placing undue strain on public resources or individual taxpayers. The substantial tax burden associated with UBI implementation must be carefully managed to ensure that the societal benefits outweigh the financial costs, calling for further research into tax structures that align with economic and social goals.

AI and Machine Learning-Driven Innovations in Macroeconomics

With the rapid development of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) technologies, the research methods and practices in macroeconomics are undergoing profound transformations. Traditional economic analysis methods often rely on historical data and empirical models, facing challenges such as data lag, information asymmetry, and insufficient predictive accuracy. The introduction of AI and ML has provided new approaches and tools for economic research, demonstrating wide application prospects, particularly in the construction of novel economic indicators, economic forecasting, policy analysis, and financial market analysis. This paper reviews the current status and future trends of AI and ML applications in macroeconomics, with a focus on the use of alternative data in constructing economic indicators, the integration of machine learning with traditional economic forecasting models, the potential and challenges of large language models in economic policy analysis, and the application of machine learning in financial market analysis.

Economic evaluation of Polygenic Risk Scores in healthcare interventions: a systematic review

Abstract Background Polygenic Risk Scores (PRS) quantify genetic susceptibility to diseases, promising personalized healthcare. This review explores current evidence regarding the economic evaluation of strategies based on PRS or other polygenic risk stratification approaches, scrutinizing their methodologies. Methods The study protocol was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42023442780). A systematic search in PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science identified full economic evaluations of intervention based on polygenic risk stratification strategies. The quality of the included articles was assessed using the Drummond checklist. This study was supported by the EC and MUR under PNRR - M4C2-I1.3 Project PE_00000019 ‘HEAL ITALIA”. Results Nineteen articles were included in the analysis, with oncological conditions being the most frequently investigated (13), followed by cardiovascular conditions (3). In nearly 80% of the studies, PRS was employed for screening interventions, with the general population being the primary target in 14 out of the 19 studies. All the economic analysis models investigated cost-utility in terms of QALYs, with Markov models and microsimulations being the most common structures. The majority of these models were based on simulated cohorts derived mostly from North American or European data, with 9 adopting a healthcare system perspective and 6 a societal perspective. Although delivery strategies for PRS testing were rarely addressed, PRS costs were included in nearly all studies. Indirect costs were examined in fewer than half of the studies. In 12 out of 19 studies, the conclusions claimed the cost utility of PRS involving strategies. Conclusions Despite the technique’s potential, evaluations of various strategies based on PRS approaches yield heterogeneous conclusions regarding cost-utility. Our study highlights the factors contributing to this heterogeneity and underscores the need for further exploration, ideally prioritizing real-world data. Key messages • PRS strategies evaluations vary in cost-utility conclusions, highlighting the need for further investigation. • Real-world data and practical implications should be prioritised in PRS research.

Digital transformation at what cost? A case study from Germany estimating the adoption potential of precision farming technologies under different scenarios

This study addresses the research gap in understanding the low adoption of Precision Agriculture Technologies (PATs) by extrapolating regional trends from in-depth farm-level analyses. Focusing on a smallholder region in Germany, it investigates the adoption limits of PATs, questioning whether the low rates are due to unknown economic thresholds and how these thresholds can be influenced. Six PATs are evaluated, along with the impact of six potential measures to increase adoption rates, using predictive economic modeling and scenario analysis. Findings confirm low adoption rates, peaking at 4.61 % for automatic guidance and 17.73 % for site-specific fertilization, highlighting that current strategies are only partially effective, especially for precision weeding, site-specific seeding, planting, and spraying. Fortunately, targeted interventions for less adopted PATs enhance average farm income, which may increase their broader acceptance. The study advocates for targeted, technology-specific strategies over broad measures like subsidies, emphasizing the effectiveness of private sector initiatives like machinery cooperatives and service providers in improving adoption. The study concludes that greater PAT uptake in agriculture is only possible if realistic expectations are set by all stakeholders and tailored strategies are developed to promote a comprehensive digital transformation of the sector.

Exploration of Equity Cooperation Concepts in Water Resource Management

This study introduces the concept and methodologies of equity cooperation into the research on the coordinated development of the “water-economy-environment” nexus, and develops a corresponding economic analysis model. The research begins by proposing a theoretical framework for equity cooperation in water resources, exploring foundational theories, conceptual extensions, analogies, and stakeholder interactions. It then introduces the “economic-equity mapping” matrix and its associated model, based on the Input-Output model. An empirical case study is conducted in Hubei Province, China. The findings reveal that between 2010 and 2020, the total input-output increased from 2,218.37 billion to 9,445.80 billion Chinese Yuan (CNY), with an average annual growth rate of 15.6%. Within this period, the total input-output of Water Utilization rose from 7.42 billion to 10.59 billion CNY, while Water Protection increased from 7.53 billion to 19.32 billion CNY. Compared to the initial equity structure, equity in the Primary, Secondary, and Tertiary industries, as well as Water Protection, improved, whereas equity in the Water Supply sector declined. The study recommends increasing environmental investment, particularly led by the Secondary sectors, to achieve regional sustainable development. This research aims to provide a decision-making bases and valuable references for advancing regional sustainable development.

DEFINING COMPONENTS OF THE METHODOLOGICAL PLATFORM FOR FORMING A BUSINESS PORTFOLIO OF A COMPANY IN THE UPDATED FORMAT OF MODERN DEVELOPMENT

The article is devoted to the analysis of the economic and operational imperatives of forming a business portfolio for a development company in the construction sector. A successful business portfolio management strategy requires the integration of financial, organizational, and technological aspects to ensure the sustainability and competitiveness of the business. In modern conditions, real estate development is one of the key factors that determines the dynamics of enterprise development, as it includes a comprehensive approach to asset management, from planning and financing to the construction and operation of objects. The theoretical and methodological foundations of the genesis of development at the current stage of the construction market's evolution have been analyzed.The methodological platform for forming a business portfolio should be based on the principles of rational resource management, risk analysis, and technological optimization. Changes in development activities require the active use of digital tools and a comprehensive approach to managing residential, commercial, and industrial properties, which allows for the maximization of profitability and minimization of risks.The article discusses the main stages of portfolio formation, such as strategic planning, selection of investment objects, and their integration into the overall structure of the enterprise. An economic and mathematical formalization of the process is also provided. For the successful operation of a development company, it is crucial to ensure coordinated work at all stages of the project — from planning and financing to construction and commissioning of the facilities.Particular attention is paid to the methods of economic and mathematical modelling (EMM) and quantitative risk analysis, which have become the basis for the development of the latest asset management strategies. The study analyses 35 different techniques. Each methodology offers unique tools for the effective management of development projects that allow forecasting financial flows, determining optimal investment strategies, and building the best plans for the development of a real estate portfolio. The specific methods used to value residential, commercial and industrial real estate are also discussed, taking into account their different levels of risk and return.It is important to note that the updated methodological platform is suitable for adaptation to the latest technologies and digital tools. This includes the introduction of a project management system, the use of artificial intelligence technologies to analyse large amounts of data, and the use of analytical tools to predict market trends. This approach helps to optimise asset management in a changing market environment. The analysis of the main components of the business portfolio formation platform also showed that important factors for the successful implementation of development projects are the speed of response to market changes, flexibility of management decisions, and the ability to minimise risks at all stages of the project.

Performance analysis and multi-objective optimization of a novel solid oxide fuel cell-based poly-generation and condensation dehumidification system

The application of energy supply systems based on fuel cells contributes to meeting the requirement of sustainable development, and developing high-efficiency, low-pollution, and multifunction poly-generation systems coupled with fuel cells is increasingly attractive. This study proposes a novel combined cooling, heating, power poly-generation and dehumidification system including a solid oxide fuel cell, a gas turbine, a double effect absorption refrigerator, a condensation dehumidification unit, an organic Rankine cycle, and a heat exchanger. Thermodynamic, economic, and environmental analysis models of the entire system are developed to evaluate system comprehensive performance. The effects of system parameters such as the inlet temperature of fuel cell, steam to carbon ratio, air flow rate, and high temperature generator temperature on system performance are analyzed. The analysis findings reveal that the proposed system can provide power, cooling, and heating of 551.904 kW, 20.307 kW, and 193.009 kW, and the dehumidification capacity per unit is 14.516 g/kg when 1.238 kg/s of humid air is treated. The system exergy efficiency is found to be 70.534 %, and the system cost rate is 15.578 $/h with carbon dioxide emission being 0.301 kg/kWh at the design condition. Two groups of multi-objective optimizations of the whole system are further conducted to acquire the optimal system performance and working conditions. The optimization results demonstrate that the optimal exergy efficiency of 72.912 % appears at point C1 in the first group of optimization with the lowest carbon dioxide emission being 0.293 kg/kWh, and the optimal qualities of humid air are found to be 1.606 kg/s at C2 and D2 in the second group of optimization. After optimization, the system carbon dioxide emission is decreased by 0.008 kg/kWh, the exergy efficiency is increased by 2.378 %, and the quality of humid air in dehumidification process is developed by 0.368 kg/s. In summary, the proposed poly-generation and dehumidification system can meet multifunction energy demands and achieve good performance, and the research work could also provide theoretical basis for developing evaluation and optimization technologies of fuel cell-based poly-generation systems.

Comprehensive performance analysis and optimization for PEMFC-heat pump combined system considering dual heat source

Traditional proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) systems face the challenges of strong thermal–electrical coupling and insufficient heating capacity. This study proposes a PEMFC–heat pump combined system considering dual heat source, which effectively utilizes fuel cell waste heat and environmental heat to achieve significant improvements in thermal–electrical decoupling and heating capacity. Energy, economic, and environmental analysis models were established, and the effects of key parameters on the combined system were systematically analyzed, followed by multi-objective optimization. Results show that the PEMFC current density has the largest effect on the heating capacity, while the heat flow ratio exerts the strongest influence on economic performance. The minimum pollutant emissions are achieved when wind power is adopted for hydrogen production. Under an ambient temperature of 248.15 K, the combined system increases the heating capacity by 12.8 % and reduces the levelized cost of energy and greenhouse gas emissions by 7.85 % and 15.9 %, respectively. The optimal solution presents a strong nonlinear relationship with the PEMFC current density and condenser undercooling, the heat flow ratio is close to the upper limit (0.99), and the operating temperature is close to the lower limit (333.4 K). These findings provide innovative thermoelectric decoupling and efficient energy supply solutions for PEMFC systems and have important implications for accelerating the low-carbon transition of regional energy systems.

Thermo-economic optimization on a combined heat and power system with supercritical Rankine cycle for power-to-heat batteries

The global energy structure is transforming to low-carbon, and it is urgent to construct a sustainable energy system mainly based on renewables. The power-to-heat batteries (P2HBs) show great potential for large-scale energy storage by converting low-cost renewable power to heat. This paper aims to study the thermodynamic and economic advantages of the P2HB integrated with a supercritical steam Rankine cycle (RC) to achieve combined heat and power (CHP) generation. Firstly, a system model of P2HB-CHP consuming grid valley power is developed. The system includes three sub-systems: P2HB, steam generator, and CHP. Thermodynamic and economic analysis models are developed, and the average exergy efficiency (ηav) and net present value (NPV) are formulated as performance evaluation targets, respectively. The genetic algorithm is used to perform multi-parameter optimization of the system. The thermodynamic optimization results show that the maximum ηav of supercritical P2HB-CHP is 0.47 %, 1.16 %, and 1.44 % higher than that of subcritical P2HB-CHP when the high working temperature of the molten salt reaches 505 °C, 570 °C, and 640 °C, respectively. The largest proportion of anergy is generated by electric heaters, over 72 %. The next largest proportion is heat exchangers, which is related to the heat transfer temperature differences. The results of the economic analysis show that the maximum NPV of supercritical P2HB-CHP is lower by 158 M$, lower by 74 M$, and higher by 55 M$ than that of subcritical P2HB-CHP when the high working temperature of the molten salt is reached 505 °C, 570 °C, and 640 °C, respectively. The high efficiency of supercritical RC reduces the costs of electric heaters and molten salts, but sets high demands on the heat exchangers. Although high-temperature molten salt results in high energy efficiency, the increased cost of molten salt reduces the profitability of the system.

Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of Cy-Tb for LTBI in India: a comprehensive economic modelling analysis.

Latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) remains a significant challenge, as there is no gold standard diagnostic test. Current methods used for identifying LTBI are the interferon-γ release assay (IGRA), which is based on a blood test, and the tuberculin skin test (TST), which has low sensitivity. Both these tests are inadequate, primarily because they have limitations with the low bacterial burden characteristic of LTBI. This highlights the need for the development and adoption of more specific and accurate diagnostic tests to effectively identify LTBI. Herein we estimate the cost-effectiveness of the Cy-Tb test as compared with the TST for LTBI diagnosis. An economic modelling study was conducted from a health system perspective using decision tree analysis, which is most widely used for cost-effectiveness analysis using transition probabilities. Our goal was to estimate the incremental cost and number of TB cases prevented from LTBI using the Cy-Tb diagnostic test along with TB preventive therapy (TPT). Secondary data such as demographic characteristics, treatment outcome, diagnostic test results and cost data for the TST and Cy-Tb tests were collected from the published literature. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was calculated for the Cy-Tb test as compared with the TST. The uncertainty in the model was evaluated using one-way sensitivity analysis and probability sensitivity analysis. The study findings indicate that for diagnosing an additional LTBI case with the Cy-Tb test and to prevent a TB case by providing TPT prophylaxis, an additional cost of 18658 Indian rupees (US${\$}$223.5) is required. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated that using the Cy-Tb test for diagnosing LTBI was cost-effective as compared with TST testing. If the cost of the Cy-Tb test is reduced, it becomes a cost-saving strategy. The Cy-Tb test for diagnosing LTBI is cost-effective at the current price, and price negotiations could further change it into a cost-saving strategy. This finding emphasizes the need for healthcare providers and policymakers to consider implementing the Cy-Tb test to maximize economic benefits. Bulk procurements can also be considered to further reduce costs and increase savings.

Assessing economic investment required to scale up bariatric surgery capacity in England: a health economic modelling analysis

ObjectivesTo quantify the economic investment required to increase bariatric surgery (BaS) capacity in National Health Service (NHS) England considering the growing obesity prevalence and low provision of BaS in England...

How feasible is it to mobilize $31 billion a year for pandemic preparedness and response? An economic growth modelling analysis

BackgroundCovid-19 has reinforced health and economic cases for investing in pandemic preparedness and response (PPR). The World Bank and World Health Organization (WHO) propose that low- and middle-income governments and donor countries should invest $31.1 billion each year for PPR. We analyse, based on the projected economic growth of countries between 2022 and 2027, how likely it is that low- and middle-income country governments and donors can mobilize the estimated funding.MethodsWe modelled trends in economic growth to project domestic health spending by low- and middle-income governments and official development assistance (ODA) by donors for years 2022 to 2027. We modelled two scenarios for countries and donors – a constant and an optimistic scenario. Under the constant scenario we assume that countries and donors continue to dedicate the same proportion of their health spending and ODA as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) and gross national income (GNI), respectively, as they did during baseline (the latest year for which data are available). In the optimistic scenario, we assume a yearly increase of 2.5% in health spending as a share of GDP for countries and ODA as a share of GNI for donors.FindingsOur analysis shows that low-income countries would need to invest on average 37%, lower-middle income countries 9%, and upper-middle income countries 1%, of their total health spending on PPR each year under the constant scenario to meet the World Bank WHO targets. Donors would need to allocate on average 8% of their total ODA across all sectors to PPR each year to meet their target.ConclusionsThe World Bank WHO targets for PPR will not be met unless low- and middle-income governments and donors spend a much higher share of their funding on PPR. Even under optimistic growth scenarios, low-income and lower-middle income countries will require increased support from global health donors. The donor target cannot be met using the yearly increase in ODA under any scenario. If the country and donor targets are not met, the highest-impact health security measures need to be prioritized for funding. Alternative sources of PPR financing could include global taxation (e.g., on financial transactions, carbon, or airline flights), cancelling debt, and addressing illicit financial flows. There is also a need for continued work on estimating current PPR costs and funding requirements in order to arrive at more enduring and reliable estimates.

Continuous glucose monitoring vs. self-monitoring in pregnant individuals with type 1 diabetes: an economic analysis

BACKGROUNDIn the United States, approximately 1% of pregnancies are complicated by pregestational diabetes. Individuals with type 1 diabetes have an increased risk of adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes. While continuous glucose monitoring has demonstrated benefits for patients with type 1 diabetes, its cost is higher than traditional intermittent fingerstick monitoring, particularly if used only during pregnancy. OBJECTIVETo develop an economic analysis model to compare in silico the cost of continuous glucose monitoring and self-monitoring of blood glucose in a cohort of pregnant individuals with type 1 diabetes mellitus. STUDY DESIGNWe developed an economic analysis model to compare two glucose monitoring strategies in pregnant individuals with type 1 diabetes: continuous glucose monitoring and self-monitoring. The model considered hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, large for gestational age, cesarean delivery, neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admission, and neonatal hypoglycemia. The primary outcome was the total cost per strategy in 2022 USD from a health system perspective, with self-monitoring as the reference group. Probabilities, relative risks, and costs were extracted from the literature, and the costs were adjusted to 2022 US dollars. Sensitivity analyses were conducted by varying parameters based on the probability, relative risk, and cost distributions. The robustness of the results was tested through 1000 Monte Carlo simulations. RESULTSIn the base-case analysis, the cost of pregnancy using continuous glucose monitoring was $26,837 compared to $29,039 for self-monitoring, resulting in a cost reduction of $2,202 per individual. The parameters with the greatest effect on the incremental cost included the relative risk of NICU admission, cost of NICU admission, continuous glucose monitoring costs, and usual care costs. Monte Carlo simulations indicated that continuous glucose monitoring was the optimal strategy 98.7% of the time. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that continuous glucose monitoring was more economical if the relative risk of NICU admission with continuous glucose monitoring vs. self-monitoring was below 1.15. CONCLUSIONCompared to self-monitoring, continuous glucose monitoring is an economical strategy for pregnant individuals with type 1 diabetes mellitus.

Optimizing Concession Agreement Terms and Conditions: Stakeholder Interest Alignment in the Petrochemical Sector

This article is devoted to the examination of models and the selection of optimal parameters for concession agreements pertaining to construction and operation projects within the pipeline infrastructure of the petrochemical sector. Pipelines are underscored as capital-intensive assets crucial for the organization of complex petrochemical production processes. These processes play a vital role in generating added value, tax revenue, employment opportunities, and fostering territorial development while upholding environmental quality standards. This study aims to ascertain the economic parameters of concession agreements, with a focus on achieving a balance of economic interests between the government and businesses. Through a comparative analysis of fundamental economic and mathematical models of concession agreements, the authors model economic parameters to determine the government’s share in investments and concession fees concerning pipeline projects. Subsequently, an oil product pipeline project is discussed as a case study. The results gleaned from this analysis can be harnessed to optimize the parameters of concession agreements and enhance the economic efficiency of project implementation. Economically viable parameters not only facilitate the execution of concession agreements but also foster the generation of added value, social benefits, and environmental oversight, thus aligning with the principles of sustainable development.

Economic Analysis of Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Systems Utilizing Natural Gas as Fuel

Solid oxide fuel cell power generation systems are devices that utilize solid electrolytes to transfer ions for electrochemical energy conversion. A wide range of gases can be used as fuel gas, including hydrogen, natural gas, and carbon monoxide. Considering the high cost of pure hydrogen, hydrogen production from natural gas reforming has become a hot research area. In this study, the 4F-LCA method was employed to construct an evaluation framework, with a particular emphasis on the cost analysis of solid oxide fuel cell power generation systems, and uses a bottom-up approach to build a system economic analysis model to visualize the major costs involved in the system. An economic benefit analysis and sensitivity analysis were carried out for the 2 kW natural gas solid oxide fuel cell as a case by taking the financial net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR) and payback period into account. In this study, the investment cost and payback period of a 2 kW solid oxide fuel cell system are obtained, which can provide a reference for the project construction and operation of solid oxide fuel cell systems.

Public health impact of herpes zoster vaccination on older adults in Singapore: a modeling study

ABSTRACT In Singapore, population aging and rising life expectancy are increasing herpes zoster (HZ) burden, which may be reduced by vaccination. The present study modeled the public health impact of HZ vaccination in Singapore using ZOster ecoNomic Analysis (ZONA) model adapted with Singapore-specific key model inputs, where available. Base case analysis was conducted in adults ≥ 50 years of age (YOA), exploring three vaccination strategies (no vaccination, recombinant zoster vaccine [RZV], zoster vaccine live [ZVL]) under mass vaccination setting (30% coverage). Scenario and sensitivity analyses were performed. Out of 1.51 million adults in 2021 (base case population), 406,513 (27.0%) cases of HZ, 68,264 (4.5%) cases of post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN), and 54,949 (3.6%) cases of other complications were projected without vaccination. RZV was estimated to avoid 73,129 cases of HZ, 11,094 cases of PHN, and 9,205 cases of other complications over the subjects’ remaining lifetime; ZVL would avoid 17,565 cases of HZ, 2,781 cases of PHN, and 1,834 cases of other complications. The number needed to vaccinate to prevent one case of HZ/PHN was lower for RZV (7/41) than ZVL (26/163). Among all five age-stratified cohorts (50–59/60–64/65–69/70–79/≥80 YOA), RZV (versus no vaccination/ZVL) avoided the largest number of cases in the youngest cohort, 50–59 YOA. Results were robust under scenario and sensitivity analyses. Mass vaccination with RZV is expected to greatly reduce the public health burden of HZ among Singapore individuals ≥ 50 YOA. Findings support value assessment and decision-making regarding public health vaccination strategies for HZ prevention in Singapore.